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我们正在创建的未来 – 译学馆
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我们正在创建的未来

The future we're building -- and boring | Elon Musk

Chris Anderson: 伊隆,欢迎回到TED来。
Chris Anderson: Elon, hey, welcome back to TED.
很高兴你能来。
It’s great to have you here.
伊隆: 感谢邀请。
Elon Musk: Thanks for having me.
CA:嗯,在接下来的半个小时,
CA: So, in the next half hour or so,
我们会花点时间
we’re going to spend some time
来探索一下你所构想的 激动人心的未来,
exploring your vision for what an exciting future might look like,
这可能会让我的第一个问题 听起来有点讽刺:
which I guess makes the first question a little ironic:
为什么你觉得无聊?
Why are you boring?
EM: 是呀。
EM: Yeah.
我经常这么问自己。
I ask myself that frequently.
我们打算挖一条隧道穿过洛杉矶,
We’re trying to dig a hole under LA,
这是我们计划的开始
and this is to create the beginning
我们有希望打造一个 地下三维管道
of what will hopefully be a 3D network of tunnels
来缓解交通阻塞。
to alleviate congestion.
目前来看,最让人精神疲惫的 事情之一就是堵车。
So right now, one of the most soul-destroying things is traffic.
这影响世界上每个角落的人。
It affects people in every part of the world.
它从你生命中拿走了太多时间。
It takes away so much of your life.
太可怕了。
It’s horrible.
在洛杉矶尤其可怕。
It’s particularly horrible in LA.
(笑声)
(Laughter)
CA: 我想你带来了
CA: I think you’ve brought with you
这项工程演示视频的 首次公开展示。
the first visualization that’s been shown of this.
我能播放么?
Can I show this?
EM: 可以,当然可以。 这是第一次——
EM: Yeah, absolutely. So this is the first time —
就展示下我们正在聊的。
Just to show what we’re talking about.
有几个关键的点
So a couple of key things that are important
对于构建3D隧道特别重要。
in having a 3D tunnel network.
首先,你必须能够
First of all, you have to be able
整合隧道的入口和出口
to integrate the entrance and exit of the tunnel
无缝的整合到城市交通里。
seamlessly into the fabric of the city.
通过利用电梯,
So by having an elevator,
一个给汽车用的滑板, 滑板放在电梯里,
sort of a car skate, that’s on an elevator,
我们就可以将隧道的入口 和出口跟公路对接起来
you can integrate the entrance and exits to the tunnel network
代价仅仅是两个停车位的面积。
just by using two parking spaces.
然后汽车就在滑板上,
And then the car gets on a skate.
隧道里没有限速,
There’s no speed limit here,
所以我们设计时速是 每小时200公里。
so we’re designing this to be able to operate at 200 kilometers an hour.
CA:多少?
CA: How much?
EM:每小时200公里, 也就是每小时130英里。
EM: 200 kilometers an hour, or about 130 miles per hour.
所以打个比方,如果你从 Westwood到洛杉矶机场
So you should be able to get from, say, Westwood to LAX
只需要五到六分钟。
in six minutes — five, six minutes.
(掌声)
(Applause)
CA:所以有可能,完工之后,
CA: So possibly, initially done,
有点类似收费高速路的模式。
it’s like on a sort of toll road-type basis.
EM:对的。
EM: Yeah.
CA:我猜这将也会缓解
CA: Which, I guess, alleviates some traffic
地面交通的压力。
from the surface streets as well.
EM:嗯,我不知道大家是否 注意到视频中的一个细节,
EM: So, I don’t know if people noticed it in the video,
实际上我们可以继续增加 隧道的层数。
but there’s no real limit to how many levels of tunnel you can have.
往下挖比往上开拓要容易得多。
You can go much further deep than you can go up.
实际上最深的矿井比最高的 摩天大楼要长多了,
The deepest mines are much deeper than the tallest buildings are tall,
所以我们可以利用这种 立体隧道网
so you can alleviate any arbitrary level of urban congestion
解决任意级别的交通拥堵问题。
with a 3D tunnel network.
这是个非常重要的点。
This is a very important point.
所以这种隧道的一个争论点是 如果我们加了一层隧道,
So a key rebuttal to the tunnels is that if you add one layer of tunnels,
那么可以轻微缓解交通拥堵, 但是很快拥堵又起来了,
that will simply alleviate congestion, it will get used up,
这个时候大家又回到原点, 又开始拥堵。
and then you’ll be back where you started, back with congestion.
但是现在我们可以增加 任意数量的隧道,
But you can go to any arbitrary number of tunnels,
没有层数限制。
any number of levels.
CA:但是人们——传统上看到的是, 隧道挖起来特别烧钱,
CA: But people — seen traditionally, it’s incredibly expensive to dig,
这回导致这个想法搁浅。
and that would block this idea.
EM:对的。
EM: Yeah.
嗯,他们是对的。
Well, they’re right.
我来举一个例子, 洛杉矶地铁线扩建,
To give you an example, the LA subway extension,
大概——我想大概是扩建了 2.5英里那么长
which is — I think it’s a two-and-a-half mile extension
工程花费达到了20亿美元。
that was just completed for two billion dollars.
所以在洛杉矶地区建立隧道 成本大概10亿一英里。
So it’s roughly a billion dollars a mile to do the subway extension in LA.
而且这还不是世界上最昂贵的 通勤地铁线路。
And this is not the highest utility subway in the world.
所以是的,通常情况下 挖隧道很难。
So yeah, it’s quite difficult to dig tunnels normally.
我想我们必须能够至少 将隧道的建设成本
I think we need to have at least a tenfold improvement
降低十倍以上才行。
in the cost per mile of tunneling.
CA:那么你怎么做到呢?
CA: And how could you achieve that?
EM:实际上,如果你做两件事情,
EM: Actually, if you just do two things,
就已经可以得到接近 一个数量级的改进,
you can get to approximately an order of magnitude improvement,
而且我觉得可以做到更多。
and I think you can go beyond that.
第一件事是减少隧道的直径
So the first thing to do is to cut the tunnel diameter
缩减到正常的二分之一。
by a factor of two or more.
法律规定一条隧的宽度
So a single road lane tunnel according to regulations
至少26英尺, 可能是28英尺
has to be 26 feet, maybe 28 feet in diameter
来避免车辆剐蹭到隧道, 允许救护车通过
to allow for crashes and emergency vehicles
同时为内燃机车的发动机 留足充分的通风机制。
and sufficient ventilation for combustion engine cars.
但是如果你将直径缩减到 我们目前尝试的那样,
But if you shrink that diameter to what we’re attempting,
只有12英尺,这个宽度已经 足够一个汽车滑板通过,
which is 12 feet, which is plenty to get an electric skate through,
这样你就将直径减少了两倍
you drop the diameter by a factor of two
这样纵切面就减少了四倍,
and the cross-sectional area by a factor of four,
而隧道建设成本跟隧道的 纵切面积有直接关系。
and the tunneling cost scales with the cross-sectional area.
所以这一条就缩减了 大概半个数量级的成本。
So that’s roughly a half-order of magnitude improvement right there.
目前我们在挖隧道的流程是, 挖掘机挖一段时间就停下来,
Then tunneling machines currently tunnel for half the time, then they stop,
等着隧道的阻隔墙加固完成,
and then the rest of the time is putting in reinforcements
再继续。
for the tunnel wall.
所以如果你能够重新设计机器,
So if you design the machine instead
能够同步进行挖掘和加固,
to do continuous tunneling and reinforcing,
那么能得到两倍的改进。
that will give you a factor of two improvement.
加起来就是8倍的改进了。
Combine that and that’s a factor of eight.
而且这些机器还远远没有 达到热力学定律的极限,
Also these machines are far from being at their power or thermal limits,
所以你可以加大机器的马力。
so you can jack up the power to the machine substantially.
我觉得至少能够再提高一倍。
I think you can get at least a factor of two,
或许能够在之前的基础上 再提高四五倍。
maybe a factor of four or five improvement on top of that.
所以我觉得现在已经有了 比较明确的步骤
So I think there’s a fairly straightforward series of steps
在缩减单位长度成本上能够做到
to get somewhere in excess of an order of magnitude improvement
一个数量级的改进,
in the cost per mile,
而我们的目标实际上是——
and our target actually is —
我们做了一个玩具蜗牛叫Gary,
we’ve got a pet snail called Gary,
名字来自《南方公园》,
this is from Gary the snail from “South Park,”
我是说,抱歉,来自《海绵宝宝》。
I mean, sorry, “SpongeBob SquarePants.”
(笑声)
(Laughter)
现在Gary能够做到——
So Gary is capable of —
现在它能够做到比现在 慢吞吞的隧道机器
currently he’s capable of going 14 times faster
快14倍以上。
than a tunnel-boring machine.
(笑声)
(Laughter)
CA:你希望超过Gary。
CA: You want to beat Gary.
EM:“我们”想要超过Gary。
EM: We want to beat Gary.
(笑声)
(Laughter)
他不是一个安静的小随从,
He’s not a patient little fellow,
会迎来胜利的。
and that will be victory.
胜利就是打败这个蜗牛。
Victory is beating the snail.
CA:但是很多人梦想着, 在构想未来城市的时候,
CA: But a lot of people imagining, dreaming about future cities,
他们想的实际上是飞行汽车, 无人机,等等。
they imagine that actually the solution is flying cars, drones, etc.
人们在地面上活动。
You go aboveground.
为什么那不是更好的方法?
Why isn’t that a better solution?
这样就完全没有挖隧道的开销了。
You save all that tunneling cost.
EM:对。我很喜欢会飞的东西。
EM: Right. I’m in favor of flying things.
很显然的,我研究火箭, 我喜欢会飞的东西。
Obviously, I do rockets, so I like things that fly.
虽然我没有任何对于 飞行物的偏见,
This is not some inherent bias against flying things,
但是飞行汽车这个概念有个问题
but there is a challenge with flying cars
就是一定会很吵,
in that they’ll be quite noisy,
产生的风也会非常大。
the wind force generated will be very high.
就简单想象一下如果有什么东西 飞过你的头顶,
Let’s just say that if something’s flying over your head,
很多飞行汽车 从你头上穿过,
a whole bunch of flying cars going all over the place,
这可不是能让你减少焦虑的场面。
that is not an anxiety-reducing situation.
(笑声)
(Laughter)
你肯定不会想, “嗯,我今天感觉不错。”
You don’t think to yourself, “Well, I feel better about today.”
你会想,“这些车轮胎都拧紧了么”
You’re thinking, “Did they service their hubcap,
“会不会掉下来砸烂我的头?”
or is it going to come off and guillotine me?”
类似这样。
Things like that.
CA:所以你对未来的构想
CA: So you’ve got this vision
就是城市地下布满这样的 立体交通隧道。
of future cities with these rich, 3D networks of tunnels underneath.
这跟Hyperloop有关联么?
Is there a tie-in here with Hyperloop?
你是不是可以将隧道用在 几年前你公开出来的
Could you apply these tunnels to use for this Hyperloop idea
Hyperloop的想法上。
you released a few years ago.
EM:对,我们在Hyperloop 这件事情上
EM: Yeah, so we’ve been sort of puttering around
已经游手好闲了一段时间。
with the Hyperloop stuff for a while.
我们在SpaceX旁边建立了 一个Hyperloop实验轨道
We built a Hyperloop test track adjacent to SpaceX,
用来做学生竞赛用,
just for a student competition,
用来激励在交通上的创新想法。
to encourage innovative ideas in transport.
实际上,我们最后做出来了 世界上最大的真空管道
And it actually ends up being the biggest vacuum chamber in the world
仅次于LHC对撞机,
after the Large Hadron Collider,
从规模上说。
by volume.
这件事情特别有意思, 不过只算是业余爱好,
So it was quite fun to do that, but it was kind of a hobby thing,
后来我们想或许——
and then we think we might —
所以我们建造了一个推进器 来推进学生做的胶囊仓,
so we’ve built a little pusher car to push the student pods,
而我们打算试试看推进器 如果没有载重
but we’re going to try seeing how fast we can make the pusher go
自己能够推进多快。
if it’s not pushing something.
我们谨慎乐观的认为
So we’re cautiously optimistic
我们将会比目前世界上 最快的子弹头列车更快
we’ll be able to be faster than the world’s fastest bullet train
即使在0.8英里的长度上。
even in a .8-mile stretch.
CA:哇,刹车不错嘛。
CA: Whoa. Good brakes.
EM:对,我是说,它 —— 对。
EM: Yeah, I mean, it’s — yeah.
它没有直接撞成碎片,但是 速度已经非常快了。
It’s either going to smash into tiny pieces or go quite fast.
CA:但是你已经可以构想 以后,Hyperloop在隧道里,
CA: But you can picture, then, a Hyperloop in a tunnel
做长距离运输。
running quite long distances.
EM:千真万确。
EM: Exactly.
看看现在的隧道构造技术,
And looking at tunneling technology,
事实上为了挖一条隧道,
it turns out that in order to make a tunnel,
你必须 ——
you have to —
为了能够隔绝地下水渗透,
In order to seal against the water table,
你通常需要将隧道壁 设计足够硬
you’ve got to typically design a tunnel wall to be good
能够承受五到六个大气压。
to about five or six atmospheres.
而真空状态只需要承受一个大气压,
So to go to vacuum is only one atmosphere,
或者近似真空。
or near-vacuum.
所以实际上,基本上是自然而然地,
So actually, it sort of turns out that automatically,
如果你构造一条隧道足够 承受地下水的压力,
if you build a tunnel that is good enough to resist the water table,
保持真空就变成自然而然的事情。
it is automatically capable of holding vacuum.
CA:呃。
CA: Huh.
EM:所以,对。
EM: So, yeah.
CA:所以你实际上可以构想,
CA: And so you could actually picture,
在你构想的未来里,Hyperloop隧道 可以长到什么规模?
what kind of length tunnel is in Elon’s future to running Hyperloop?
EM:我觉得没有任何长度的限制。
EM: I think there’s no real length limit.
你可以想要挖多远就挖多远。
You could dig as much as you want.
我觉得如果你想要造Hyperloop,
I think if you were to do something
比如从华盛顿到纽约,
like a DC-to-New York Hyperloop,
我觉得你可能更愿意全程都 从地下穿过
I think you’d probably want to go underground the entire way
因为地面建筑太密集了。
because it’s a high-density area.
你会从地下穿过很多大楼和房屋,
You’re going under a lot of buildings and houses,
如果你挖的足够深,
and if you go deep enough,
在地表是探测不到隧道的。
you cannot detect the tunnel.
有时候人们会想,嗯,那可够恼人的
Sometimes people think, well, it’s going to be pretty annoying
如果在我房子下面挖隧道的话
to have a tunnel dug under my house.
比如,如果一条隧道
Like, if that tunnel is dug
是在你家地下三到四个隧道直径的 深度挖的话,
more than about three or four tunnel diameters beneath your house,
你就根本探测不出来了。
you will not be able to detect it being dug at all.
实际上如果你能够探测到,
In fact, if you’re able to detect the tunnel being dug,
不管你用什么设备,
whatever device you are using,
你都可以用这个设备从以色列 军方那里赚到一大笔钱,
you can get a lot of money for that device from the Israeli military,
他们一直在尝试探测哈马斯组织 挖的隧道,
who is trying to detect tunnels from Hamas,
美国海关和边防也都希望 探测毒贩的隧道。
and from the US Customs and Border patrol that try and detect drug tunnels.
所以实际上,
So the reality is
地球吸收震动的能力 非常的好,
that earth is incredibly good at absorbing vibrations,
一旦隧道建设达到一定深度,
and once the tunnel depth is below a certain level,
就无法探测到了。
it is undetectable.
或许你拿一个非常灵敏的地震探测仪,
Maybe if you have a very sensitive seismic instrument,
可以有机会探测到。
you might be able to detect it.
CA:所以你开了一家新公司做这个
CA: So you’ve started a new company to do this
公司叫“无聊的公司”。
called The Boring Company.
非常棒,挺会玩。
Very nice. Very funny.
(笑声)
(Laughter)
EM:有什么好笑的?
EM: What’s funny about that?
(笑声)
(Laughter)
CA:这个大概花费你多少时间?
CA: How much of your time is this?
EM:大概有……
EM: It’s maybe …
百分之二三的样子。
two or three percent.
CA:你带来了一个业余爱好。
CA: You’ve bought a hobby.
这就是Elon Musk的业余爱好的样子。
This is what an Elon Musk hobby looks like.
(笑声)
(Laughter)
EM:我是说,实际上是——
EM: I mean, it really is, like —
基本上是实习生和一些兼职职工在做。
This is basically interns and people doing it part time.
我们买了一些二手设备。
We bought some second-hand machinery.
这个一开始也差不多是随便玩玩, 但是没想到进度喜人,所以——
It’s kind of puttering along, but it’s making good progress, so —
CA:所以你的时间中大部分
CA: So an even bigger part of your time
投入到了电动汽车,也就是特斯拉上。
is being spent on electrifying cars and transport through Tesla.
隧道项目的动机中有没有
Is one of the motivations for the tunneling project
服务于特斯拉的成分,
the realization that actually,
未来世界中汽车都是电动, 都是自动驾驶的,
in a world where cars are electric and where they’re self-driving,
最终可能是路面上有更多汽车
there may end up being more cars on the roads
比现在的任何时刻都要多?
on any given hour than there are now?
EM:对,完全正确。
EM: Yeah, exactly.
很多人认为当汽车开始自动驾驶,
A lot of people think that when you make cars autonomous,
他们能跑得更快,并缓解交通压力。
they’ll be able to go faster and that will alleviate congestion.
在某种程度上是真的,
And to some degree that will be true,
但是一旦我们开始共享汽车, 叫个计程车就会很便宜
but once you have shared autonomy where it’s much cheaper to go by car
于是你到哪儿都可以叫车,
and you can go point to point,
叫得起出租车要比等公交好得多。
the affordability of going in a car will be better than that of a bus.
那时候,叫车估计比公交车还便宜。
Like, it will cost less than a bus ticket.
所以路面上汽车等到共享自动驾驶 汽车的时候就会更多,
So the amount of driving that will occur will be much greater with shared autonomy,
那个时候交通会更拥挤。
and actually traffic will get far worse.
CA:你创办特斯拉的时候希望向世界证明
CA: You started Tesla with the goal of persuading the world
电动汽车是汽车行业的未来,
that electrification was the future of cars,
几年前,人们还嘲笑你。
and a few years ago, people were laughing at you.
现在,没有那么多人了。
Now, not so much.
EM:好。
EM: OK.
(笑声)
(Laughter)
我不知道,我不知道。
I don’t know. I don’t know.
CA:但是现在差不多每个汽车厂商
CA: But isn’t it true that pretty much every auto manufacturer
都认真地宣布了短期或中期的
has announced serious electrification plans
电动汽车计划?
for the short- to medium-term future?
EM:对,对。
EM: Yeah. Yeah.
我想基本每一个汽车厂商都有电动车计划了。
I think almost every automaker has some electric vehicle program.
但是对待的认真程度不同。
They vary in seriousness.
有一些非常坚定,要全面电动化,
Some are very serious about transitioning entirely to electric,
有一些仅仅是试水看看。
and some are just dabbling in it.
还有一些,挺有意思的还坚持化石燃料,
And some, amazingly, are still pursuing fuel cells,
但是我觉得他们长久不了了。
but I think that won’t last much longer.
CA:但是Elon,现在不就已经是,
CA: But isn’t there a sense, though, Elon,
你可以宣布胜利,说,“我们做到了。”
where you can now just declare victory and say, you know, “We did it.”
让世界都开始转向汽车电动化, 你可以将重心转入其它行业了?
Let the world electrify, and you go on and focus on other stuff?
EM:对。
EM: Yeah.
我打算在可以预见的未来 继续主导特斯拉的发展,
I intend to stay with Tesla as far into the future as I can imagine,
也有很多激动人心的事情我们在做。
and there are a lot of exciting things that we have coming.
很显然,特斯拉Model 3就要发布了。
Obviously the Model 3 is coming soon.
我们也要宣布特斯拉半挂卡车。
We’ll be unveiling the Tesla Semi truck.
CA:好的,我们就要聊到这个了。
CA: OK, we’re going to come to this.
所以Model 3计划时在七月左右发布。
So Model 3, it’s supposed to be coming in July-ish.
EM:是,7月份发布新东西感觉很好。
EM: Yeah, it’s looking quite good for starting production in July.
CA:哇哦。
CA: Wow.
人们非常兴奋的一件事情
One of the things that people are so excited about
是它将能够自动驾驶。
is the fact that it’s got autopilot.
你在不久之前放出来这段视频
And you put out this video a while back
展示了这项技术看起来什么样子。
showing what that technology would look like.
EM:对的。
EM: Yeah.
CA:现在Model S已经有了自动驾驶。
There’s obviously autopilot in Model S right now.
这段视频我们看出来什么?
What are we seeing here?
EM:对的,这段视频里只用了GPS和可见光摄像头。
EM: Yeah, so this is using only cameras and GPS.
注意这里并没有使用激光雷达。
So there’s no LIDAR or radar being used here.
这里仅仅是用了被动光学传感器, 跟我们人类使用的差不多。
This is just using passive optical, which is essentially what a person uses.
整个道路系统的导航
The whole road system is meant to be navigated
仅仅使用被动光学,也就是摄像头
with passive optical, or cameras,
所以当你能够(仅仅)用摄像头
and so once you solve cameras
或者视觉,
or vision,
那么自动驾驶的问题就解决了。
then autonomy is solved.
如果你没有解决视觉问题, 问题就没有解决。
If you don’t solve vision, it’s not solved.
这也是为什么我们非常重视 训练视觉神经网络,
So that’s why our focus is so heavily on having a vision neural net
这东西在公路环境下很有效。
that’s very effective for road conditions.
CA:对的。很多人都打算使用激光雷达模块。
CA: Right. Many other people are going the LIDAR route.
你希望用摄像头和雷达搞定。
You want cameras plus radar is most of it.
EM:使用摄像头就足够让你变成超人了。
EM: You can absolutely be superhuman with just cameras.
例如你可能比人类的反应快十倍以上,
Like, you can probably do it ten times better than humans would,
仅使用摄像头。
just cameras.
CA:所以新款特斯拉上有八个摄像头。
CA: So the new cars being sold right now have eight cameras in them.
它们还不能做刚才展示的那样。
They can’t yet do what that showed.
什么时候可以?
When will they be able to?
EM:我想我们还在按预定计划推进 到今年年底的时候
EM: I think we’re still on track for being able to go cross-country
能够完全自主的从洛杉矶开到纽约。
from LA to New York by the end of the year, fully autonomous.
CA:OK,所以到了今年底,你是说
CA: OK, so by the end of the year, you’re saying,
人们只要坐进特斯拉 不需要碰方向盘,
someone’s going to sit in a Tesla without touching the steering wheel,
输入“纽约”,车就开起来了。
tap in “New York,” off it goes.
EM:对的。
EM: Yeah.
CA:不再需要摸方向盘——2017年底。
CA: Won’t ever have to touch the wheel — by the end of 2017.
EM:对,基本上,11月份或者12月份,
EM: Yeah. Essentially, November or December of this year,
我们应该能够完全地 从加州某个停车场,
we should be able to go all the way from a parking lot in California
开到纽约的某个停车场,
to a parking lot in New York,
全程不需要碰方向盘。
no controls touched at any point during the entire journey.
(掌声)
(Applause)
CA:厉害了。
CA: Amazing.
但是这里成功的前提之一
But part of that is possible
是因为你已经有了一个特斯拉车队 在路上到处行驶。
because you’ve already got a fleet of Teslas driving all these roads.
你已经积累了海量的公路数据。
You’re accumulating a huge amount of data of that national road system.
EM:但是这里好玩的事情是
EM: Yes, but the thing that will be interesting
我实际上非常自信 即使道路临时改了,
is that I’m actually fairly confident it will be able to do that route
我们也能够正常行驶到目的地。
even if you change the route dynamically.
所以,相对来说容易的是 ——
So, it’s fairly easy —
如果你说我在特定的道路上有 很好的表现,这是一回事,
If you say I’m going to be really good at one specific route, that’s one thing,
当然这样它能够做到, 但是更好的是,
but it should be able to go, really be very good,
当你输入一条高速路,
certainly once you enter a highway,
能够去一个国家的
to go anywhere on the highway system
任何一条高速路。
in a given country.
所以这并不是只能从洛杉矶到纽约。
So it’s not sort of limited to LA to New York.
我们可以改成从西雅图到弗罗里达,
We could change it and make it Seattle-Florida,
那天,实时地调整。
that day, in real time.
所以你假设从洛杉矶到纽约。
So you were going from LA to New York.
现在从洛杉矶到多伦多。
Now go from LA to Toronto.
CA:现在先不管监管的问题,
CA: So leaving aside regulation for a second,
仅仅考虑技术本身,
in terms of the technology alone,
大概什么时候,我们能够买一辆你的车
the time when someone will be able to buy one of your cars
并且真的双手离开方向盘睡一觉
and literally just take the hands off the wheel and go to sleep
醒来之后就到了目的地,
and wake up and find that they’ve arrived,
要能够安全的实现这点还需要多久?
how far away is that, to do that safely?
EM:我想大概两年时间。
EM: I think that’s about two years.
这个问题的点不在于 你能够以
So the real trick of it is not how do you make it work
99.9%的概率不出错,
say 99.9 percent of the time,
因为,如果一辆汽车一千次出行 会出一次车祸,
because, like, if a car crashes one in a thousand times,
那么你可能还是不会睡的舒服。
then you’re probably still not going to be comfortable falling asleep.
你不会的,当然啦。
You shouldn’t be, certainly.
(笑声)
(Laughter)
这个永远都不是完美的。
It’s never going to be perfect.
没有系统能做到完美,
No system is going to be perfect,
但是如果你说它可能——
but if you say it’s perhaps —
这辆车在一百个人那里
the car is unlikely to crash
在一千个人那里 都不会出车祸
in a hundred lifetimes, or a thousand lifetimes,
那么人们可能会想,哇哦, 如果我有一千条命,
then people are like, OK, wow, if I were to live a thousand lives,
我还是基本上不会遇到车祸,
I would still most likely never experience a crash,
那么可能就是OK的。
then that’s probably OK.
CA:关于睡觉。
CA: To sleep.
我猜测你的一大担心 是人们可能实际上
I guess the big concern of yours is that people may actually
过早的觉得这项技术是安全的,
get seduced too early to think that this is safe,
然后一些可怕的事故可能会发生, 将人们的预期拉回来。
and that you’ll have some horrible incident happen that puts things back.
EM:嗯,实际上我觉得自动驾驶系统 可能至少能够减轻车祸,
EM: Well, I think that the autonomy system is likely to at least mitigate the crash,
除非在极罕见的情况下。
except in rare circumstances.
谈及汽车安全需要注意的一点
The thing to appreciate about vehicle safety
是车祸是有随机性的。
is this is probabilistic.
我是说,有这样的可能性, 人类驾驶员坐在车里,
I mean, there’s some chance that any time a human driver gets in a car,
他们也有可能发生车祸, 那是驾驶员的失误。
that they will have an accident that is their fault.
概率不可能是零。
It’s never zero.
所以关键的一个门槛实际上是
So really the key threshold for autonomy
自动驾驶到底需要比 人类驾驶员好多少时,
is how much better does autonomy need to be than a person
你才会信任它?
before you can rely on it?
CA:但是一旦这种真正意义上的 无人驾驶开始实施,
CA: But once you get literally safe hands-off driving,
对于整个行业的冲击是巨大的,
the power to disrupt the whole industry seems massive,
因为在那时你可以跟 买得起车的人说,
because at that point you’ve spoken of people being able to buy a car,
自己坐车上班之后, 让车辆自己去,
drops you off at work, and then you let it go
提供类似优步叫车的服务 给其他人提供服务,
and provide a sort of Uber-like service to other people,
车主赚钱,
earn you money,
甚至可能足够你支付 买车的分期贷款,
maybe even cover the cost of your lease of that car,
所以你可能不花钱就能买辆车。
so you can kind of get a car for free.
这有可能发生么?
Is that really likely?
ME:对的,这是绝对会发生的事情。
EM: Yeah. Absolutely this is what will happen.
所以将来会有一个自动共享车队
So there will be a shared autonomy fleet
你买一辆车,
where you buy your car
你可以选择自己独享,
and you can choose to use that car exclusively,
你可以选择跟家庭和朋友一起使用,
you could choose to have it be used only by friends and family,
或者给评分五颗星的司机,
only by other drivers who are rated five star,
你可以在某些时间共享, 某些事件独占。
you can choose to share it sometimes but not other times.
这百分百会发生。
That’s 100 percent what will occur.
只是时间问题。
It’s just a question of when.
CA:哇哦。
CA: Wow.
你刚才提到了半挂卡车
So you mentioned the Semi
我想你可能9月份要发布,
and I think you’re planning to announce this in September,
但是我很好奇,有没有 今天可以透露的?
but I’m curious whether there’s anything you could show us today?
EM:我可以给你看一张海报风格的照片。
EM: I will show you a teaser shot of the truck.
(笑声)
(Laughter)
这是真的。
It’s alive.
CA:好吧。
CA: OK.
EM:这绝对是我们希望 关于自动驾驶特性,
EM: That’s definitely a case where we want to be cautious
保持谨慎的一种情形。
about the autonomy features.
耶。
Yeah.
(笑声)
(Laughter)
CA:我们看不到太多细节,
CA: We can’t see that much of it,
但是这个看起来并不像是那种 小巧友善的零家卡车。
but it doesn’t look like just a little friendly neighborhood truck.
看起来很霸道。
It looks kind of badass.
这是个什么类型的卡车?
What sort of semi is this?
EM:这是一个重型长途半挂卡车。
EM: So this is a heavy duty, long-range semitruck.
它的载重是最大的
So it’s the highest weight capability
并且用于长途。
and with long range.
所以基本上这是用来减轻 长途重型卡车的负载的。
So essentially it’s meant to alleviate the heavy-duty trucking loads.
这是今天的人们觉得不太可能的事情。
And this is something which people do not today think is possible.
他们认为这个卡车没有足够动力, 也跑不了那么远,
They think the truck doesn’t have enough power or it doesn’t have enough range,
于是通过特斯拉半挂卡车,
and then with the Tesla Semi
我们希望证明,一辆电动卡车
we want to show that no, an electric truck
实际上能够驱动任何柴油动力卡车。
actually can out-torque any diesel semi.
而且如果我们来一场拔河比赛,
And if you had a tug-of-war competition,
特斯拉电动半挂能够把 柴油动力车拽上坡。
the Tesla Semi will tug the diesel semi uphill.
(笑声)
(Laughter)
(掌声)
(Applause)
CA:这太酷了。简单说,还不是无人驾驶。
CA: That’s pretty cool. And short term, these aren’t driverless.
这些是需要卡车司机驾驶的卡车。
These are going to be trucks that truck drivers want to drive.
EM:是的。真正好玩的地方在于
EM: Yes. So what will be really fun about this
电动引擎的的转矩扭力曲线是平坦的,
is you have a flat torque RPM curve with an electric motor,
而柴油动力或者任何内燃机车引擎,
whereas with a diesel motor or any kind of internal combustion engine car,
你看到的转矩扭力曲线都是山峰状的。
you’ve got a torque RPM curve that looks like a hill.
所以这车动力澎湃。
So this will be a very spry truck.
驾驶这车的就像驾驶运动型轿车。
You can drive this around like a sports car.
没有齿轮。它就像是单一速度。
There’s no gears. It’s, like, single speed.
CA:有一部很不错的电影在这里拍摄。
CA: There’s a great movie to be made here somewhere.
我不知道这是什么,不知道结局如何,
I don’t know what it is and I don’t know that it ends well,
不过这是个好电影。
but it’s a great movie.
(笑声)
(Laughter)
EM:试驾的感觉非常的奇怪。
EM: It’s quite bizarre test-driving.
当我第一次驾驶这样卡车的原型车时。
When I was driving the test prototype for the first truck.
真的很古怪,因为你开来开去
It’s really weird, because you’re driving around
你感觉非常灵活, 你又是坐在这种大卡车里。
and you’re just so nimble, and you’re in this giant truck.
CA:等等,你已经开过了?
CA: Wait, you’ve already driven a prototype?
EM:对,我在一个停车场开了下,
EM: Yeah, I drove it around the parking lot,
我当时感觉,太疯狂了。
and I was like, this is crazy.
CA:哇哦,这不是幻想。
CA: Wow. This is no vaporware.
EM:就像这样,驾驶这个庞然大物,
EM: It’s just like, driving this giant truck
机动性又让人觉得疯狂。
and making these mad maneuvers.
CA:太酷了。好,从一张很霸道的图片,
CA: This is cool. OK, from a really badass picture
到这张不那么霸道的照片。
to a kind of less badass picture.
这是从《绝望的主妇》剧照里抠出来的房子。
This is just a cute house from “Desperate Housewives” or something.
这到底要说明什么?
What on earth is going on here?
EM:嗯,这张图片展示了未来,
EM: Well, this illustrates the picture of the future
我觉得事情会如何演化。
that I think is how things will evolve.
你在路上看到一辆电动汽车。
You’ve got an electric car in the driveway.
如果你留心车和房屋之间,
If you look in between the electric car and the house,
实际上在房屋的周围有三面Powerwall,
there are actually three Powerwalls stacked up against the side of the house,
同时房屋的屋顶是太阳能屋顶。
and then that house roof is a solar roof.
所以那实际上是一个太阳能玻璃屋顶。
So that’s an actual solar glass roof.
CA:OK。
CA: OK.
EM:这张图片是真的 —— 嗯,公认的,真的样板房。
EM: That’s a picture of a real — well, admittedly, it’s a real fake house.
这是个真的样板房。
That’s a real fake house.
(笑声)
(Laughter)
CA:所以这些屋顶的瓦片,
CA: So these roof tiles,
其中有一些有能力进行太阳能发电 ——
some of them have in them basically solar power, the ability to —
EM:对的。太阳能玻璃瓦片
EM: Yeah. Solar glass tiles
你可以调整纹理和颜色,
where you can adjust the texture and the color
可以在很精细的粒度上调整,
to a very fine-grained level,
而且这些玻璃上有种类似 百叶窗的微型结构,
and then there’s sort of microlouvers in the glass,
所以当你从街道那么远的距离 看这个屋顶
such that when you’re looking at the roof from street level
或者靠近马路的位置,
or close to street level,
所有的瓦片看起来都一样了,
all the tiles look the same
无法区分里面是不是有太阳能板。
whether there is a solar cell behind it or not.
所以从地面上看,
So you have an even color
你看到的是均匀的色彩。
from the ground level.
如果你坐在直升机上往下看,
If you were to look at it from a helicopter,
你就能穿透玻璃看到后面
you would be actually able to look through and see
有一些玻璃后面有太阳能电池板, 有一些没有。
that some of the glass tiles have a solar cell behind them and some do not.
从街道上无法看出来。
You can’t tell from street level.
CA:你把它们放在阳光尽可能 多照射到的地方,
CA: You put them in the ones that are likely to see a lot of sun,
是的这些屋顶更容易负担得起,对么?
and that makes these roofs super affordable, right?
这相对于完全用太阳能电池板负载屋顶 要经济得多。
They’re not that much more expensive than just tiling the roof.
EM:对。
EM: Yeah.
我们很有自信,屋顶的成本
We’re very confident that the cost of the roof
加上电力节约的成本 ——
plus the cost of electricity —
一个太阳能玻璃屋顶的成本 将会比一个普通屋顶
A solar glass roof will be less than the cost of a normal roof
加上电力成本来的低。
plus the cost of electricity.
所以换句话说,
So in other words,
这将是在经济上的必然选择,
this will be economically a no-brainer,
我们觉得看起来很棒,
we think it will look great,
而且它可以持续 ——
and it will last —
我们有考虑过无限期质保,
We thought about having the warranty be infinity,
但是人们会想,
but then people thought,
嗯,这可能听起来像是胡说八道,
well, that might sound like were just talking rubbish,
但是实际上这些都是钢化玻璃。
but actually this is toughened glass.
甚至房屋都倒塌了
Well after the house has collapsed
成了一片废墟,
and there’s nothing there,
这些玻璃瓦片还会完好无损的。
the glass tiles will still be there.
(掌声)
(Applause)
CA:我觉得这很酷。
CA: I mean, this is cool.
所以我想你可能会在几周内 开始推广,
So you’re rolling this out in a couple week’s time, I think,
共有四种不同的屋顶样式。
with four different roofing types.
EM:对,我们开始的时候推广两种, 一开始有两种,
EM: Yeah, we’re starting off with two, two initially,
另外两种会在明年初开始。
and the second two will be introduced early next year.
CA:那么在规模上你有多大的野心?
CA: And what’s the scale of ambition here?
你觉得大概有多少屋顶会被 替换成这种屋顶?
How many houses do you believe could end up having this type of roofing?
EM:我觉得最终的话
EM: I think eventually
基本上所有的屋子都会有太阳能屋顶。
almost all houses will have a solar roof.
问题是需要考虑大概需要多久
The thing is to consider the time scale here
我觉得大概是需要
to be probably on the order
40到50年的样子。
of 40 or 50 years.
所以一般而言,屋顶20-25年换一次。
So on average, a roof is replaced every 20 to 25 years.
但是你不会一开始就替换所有的屋顶。
But you don’t start replacing all roofs immediately.
但是最终,如果你快速地从现在
But eventually, if you say were to fast-forward
推广到15年之后,
to say 15 years from now,
那时候没有太阳能的屋顶将会是很少见的。
it will be unusual to have a roof that does not have solar.
CA:这里会不会因为人们的思维模式 还没有到这个程度,
CA: Is there a mental model thing that people don’t get here
并不是因为成本的变化, 太阳能的经济效应,
that because of the shift in the cost, the economics of solar power,
大部分房屋的屋顶实际上 有充足的光照,
most houses actually have enough sunlight on their roof
足够提供他们所需的所有电能。
pretty much to power all of their needs.
如果你能够利用这种能源,
If you could capture the power,
这基本上满足了他们所有的需要。
it could pretty much power all their needs.
你可以某种程度上不需要电网了。
You could go off-grid, kind of.
EM:这取决于你的位置
EM: It depends on where you are
以及屋顶面积和房屋面积的比例,
and what the house size is relative to the roof area,
但是一般而言可以说
but it’s a fair statement to say
美国的大部分房屋有足够大的屋顶
that most houses in the US have enough roof area
产生足够全家使用的电能。
to power all the needs of the house.
CA:所以这项经济活动的关键
CA: So the key to the economics
包括汽车、半挂卡车、这些房屋
of the cars, the Semi, of these houses
是锂电池的价格需要足够低,
is the falling price of lithium-ion batteries,
这是你在特斯拉上的豪赌。
which you’ve made a huge bet on as Tesla.
从很多方面讲,这都算是核心能力。
In many ways, that’s almost the core competency.
所以你决定
And you’ve decided
为了能够真正的拥有这项核心能力,
that to really, like, own that competency,
你需要建造世界上最大的生产厂房
you just have to build the world’s largest manufacturing plant
将世界锂电池供应量翻倍,
to double the world’s supply of lithium-ion batteries,
用这个家伙。这是什么?
with this guy. What is this?
EM:对,这是超级工厂,
EM: Yeah, so that’s the Gigafactory,
超级工厂目前的进展。
progress so far on the Gigafactory.
最终,你大概能够看到
Eventually, you can sort of roughly see
一个类似钻石形状的轮廓,
that there’s sort of a diamond shape overall,
等到完全竣工,它会像一个巨型钻石,
and when it’s fully done, it’ll look like a giant diamond,
这也是这个背后的点子,
or that’s the idea behind it,
这指向正北方。
and it’s aligned on true north.
这是个小细节。
It’s a small detail.
CA:最终将有能力生产,
CA: And capable of producing, eventually,
每年生产几百兆瓦时的电源。
like a hundred gigawatt hours of batteries a year.
EM:一百兆瓦时。我们觉得可能 会更多一些,不过,是的。
EM: A hundred gigawatt hours. We think probably more, but yeah.
CA:而且实际上他们已经投入生产了。
CA: And they’re actually being produced right now.
EM:他们已经在生产了。 CA:你的员工放了这段视频。
EM: They’re in production already. CA: You guys put out this video.
我想问,这是快进了么?
I mean, is that speeded up?
EM:这是慢速回放的版本。
EM: That’s the slowed down version.
(笑声)
(Laughter)
CA:那么它实际上会有多快?
CA: How fast does it actually go?
EM:嗯,当它全速运行的时候,
EM: Well, when it’s running at full speed,
不用频闪灯你是看不到具体的电池的,
you can’t actually see the cells without a strobe light.
是模糊的影子。
It’s just blur.
(笑声)
(Laughter)
CA:你的一个核心观念,伊隆, 创在一个令人兴奋的未来
CA: One of your core ideas, Elon, about what makes an exciting future
这个未来人们在使用能源上 不用再有罪恶感。
is a future where we no longer feel guilty about energy.
帮我们描绘一下。
Help us picture this.
需要多少超级工厂,按你的设想, 才能帮助我们达到目标?
How many Gigafactories, if you like, does it take to get us there?
EM:大概需要一百座,基本上。
EM: It’s about a hundred, roughly.
不是10座,不是1000座。
It’s not 10, it’s not a thousand.
最有可能是一百座。
Most likely a hundred.
CA:看,我觉得很神奇。
CA: See, I find this amazing.
你可以描绘出为了让世界
You can picture what it would take
抛弃化石燃料需要的具体步骤。
to move the world off this vast fossil fuel thing.
好像你建造这一座工厂,
It’s like you’re building one,
造价是五十亿美元,
it costs five billion dollars,
或者可能是,五十亿到一百亿美元。
or whatever, five to 10 billion dollars.
你能描绘出那样的场景相当的酷。
Like, it’s kind of cool that you can picture that project.
而且你的特斯拉公司还计划 —— 今年再建设两座超级工厂。
And you’re planning to do, at Tesla — announce another two this year.
EM:我觉得我们会在今年晚些时候
EM: I think we’ll announce locations
公开二到四座超级工厂的选址。
for somewhere between two and four Gigafactories later this year.
对,可能是四座。
Yeah, probably four.
CA:哇。
CA: Whoa.
(掌声)
(Applause)
这里能透露更多信息么?
No more teasing from you for here?
例如 —— 哪个大陆?
Like — where, continent?
你可以说不。
You can say no.
EM:我们需要考虑全球市场。
EM: We need to address a global market.
CA:好吧。
CA: OK.
(笑声)
(Laughter)
酷。
This is cool.
我想我们需要谈论一下 ——
I think we should talk for —
实际上,加上双引号。
Actually, double mark it.
我接下来要问一个政治问题,就一个。
I’m going to ask you one question about politics, only one.
我是厌恶政治的,但是我想问你这个问题。
I’m kind of sick of politics, but I do want to ask you this.
你现在加入了一个委员会 为一个人提供建议 ——
You’re on a body now giving advice to a guy —
EM:谁?
EM: Who?
CA:一个自称不相信全球变暖的人,
CA: Who has said he doesn’t really believe in climate change,
并且有很多人觉得你不应该参与其中。
and there’s a lot of people out there who think you shouldn’t be doing that.
他们希望你远离这些。
They’d like you to walk away from that.
你如何回应他们?
What would you say to them?
EM:嗯,我想首先,
EM: Well, I think that first of all,
我只是在两个咨询委员会里
I’m just on two advisory councils
形式上大概就是聚在一间屋子里
where the format consists of going around the room
问人们关于一些议题的看法,
and asking people’s opinion on things,
大概一两个月开一次会。
and so there’s like a meeting every month or two.
这是我所有的贡献。
That’s the sum total of my contribution.
但是我想对在场的那些因为关心
But I think to the degree that there are people in the room
气候变化而争论的朋友,或是争论
who are arguing in favor of doing something about climate change,
社会议题的朋友,
or social issues,
我利用我参与这些会议的机会
I’ve used the meetings I’ve had thus far
为移民问题和气候变化问题发声。
to argue in favor of immigration and in favor of climate change.
(掌声)
(Applause)
如果我没有这么做,
And if I hadn’t done that,
这些本来都不在议题上。
that wasn’t on the agenda before.
所以可能什么都不会发生, 但是该说的我都说了。
So maybe nothing will happen, but at least the words were said.
CA:OK。
CA: OK.
(掌声)
(Applause)
让我们聊聊SpaceX和火星。
So let’s talk SpaceX and Mars.
上一次你来这里,
Last time you were here,
你讲述了一个看起来充满野心 并且难以置信的梦想
you spoke about what seemed like a kind of incredibly ambitious dream
创造一种可以回收利用的火箭。
to develop rockets that were actually reusable.
现在你终于做到了。
And you’ve only gone and done it.
EM:终于。这花了很长时间。
EM: Finally. It took a long time.
CA:跟我们说说这个。 我们现在看到了什么?
CA: Talk us through this. What are we looking at here?
EM:这是我们的一个火箭推进器
EM: So this is one of our rocket boosters
从很高的天空快速返回的视频。
coming back from very high and fast in space.
它在火箭高速飞行的
So just delivered the upper stage
前期阶段进行推动。
at high velocity.
我想这大概有7马赫左右,
I think this might have been at sort of Mach 7 or so,
运送上节火箭。
delivery of the upper stage.
(掌声)
(Applause)
CA:所以这是个快速 ——
CA: So that was a sped-up —
EM:这是个慢速回放版本。
EM: That was the slowed down version.
(笑声)
(Laughter)
CA:我以为这是个快进版本。
CA: I thought that was the sped-up version.
但是我想说这太神奇了,
But I mean, that’s amazing,
而且前几次都失败了
and several of these failed
后来你终于发现了正确的方法,
before you finally figured out how to do it,
现在你们已经做了,五到六次?
but now you’ve done this, what, five or six times?
EM:我们成功了八九次了。
EM: We’re at eight or nine.
CA:这是历史上第一次,
CA: And for the first time,
你回收和再利用了着陆之后的火箭。
you’ve actually reflown one of the rockets that landed.
EM:对,我们回收了火箭推进器
EM: Yeah, so we landed the rocket booster
并且重新注入燃料继续使用, 继续回收,
and then prepped it for flight again and flew it again,
所以这是第一次太空轨道推进器 的重复飞行,
so it’s the first reflight of an orbital booster
注意这里再次飞行是有意义的。
where that reflight is relevant.
这里很重要的一点需要支持 就是可重用性只有在
So it’s important to appreciate that reusability is only relevant
快速和完备的时候才是有意义的。
if it is rapid and complete.
就像是飞行器或者汽车,
So like an aircraft or a car,
它们的重复使用是快速且完备的。
the reusability is rapid and complete.
你不会在两次航空飞行之间 把飞机送回波音公司。
You do not send your aircraft to Boeing in-between flights.
CA:对。所以这让你能够实现那个 野心勃勃的梦想
CA: Right. So this is allowing you to dream of this really ambitious idea
把很多很多人送上火星
of sending many, many, many people to Mars
在大概10年、20年之内,我猜。
in, what, 10 or 20 years time, I guess.
EM:对。
EM: Yeah.
CA:然后你设计了这样大胆的 火箭来实现这个目标。
CA: And you’ve designed this outrageous rocket to do it.
跟我们解释一下这个事情的规模。
Help us understand the scale of this thing.
EM:好,你可以看到这里有一个人。
EM: Well, visually you can see that’s a person.
对,那是火箭。
Yeah, and that’s the vehicle.
(笑声)
(Laughter)
CA:所以如果那是个摩天大楼的话,
CA: So if that was a skyscraper,
那么大概,如果没算错, 大概40层的摩天大楼?
that’s like, did I read that, a 40-story skyscraper?
EM:可能稍微更高一些,对。
EM: Probably a little more, yeah.
这个级别的推动力非常的 ——
The thrust level of this is really —
这个推动力大概是土星5型火箭的4倍。
This configuration is about four times the thrust of the Saturn V moon rocket.
CA:比人类创造的最大推进力的火箭 多四倍的推进力。
CA: Four times the thrust of the biggest rocket humanity ever created before.
EM:对,对。
EM: Yeah. Yeah.
CA:这个能做到。 EM:对呀。
CA: As one does. EM: Yeah.
(笑声)
(Laughter)
以波音747做比较,一架747的推动力 大概是25万磅的推动力,
In units of 747, a 747 is only about a quarter of a million pounds of thrust,
所以一千万镑的推动力,
so for every 10 million pounds of thrust,
相当于40架747.
there’s 40 747s.
所以这相当于120架747的推动力, 如果引擎都打开的话。
So this would be the thrust equivalent of 120 747s, with all engines blazing.
CA:所以用这台设计用来摆脱 地心引力的机器,
CA: And so even with a machine designed to escape Earth’s gravity,
我想上次你告诉我说
I think you told me last time
这东西能够装载一架满载的747,
this thing could actually take a fully loaded 747,
人,货物,所有东西,
people, cargo, everything,
送入轨道。
into orbit.
EM:没错。这个可以装载一架 加满油的747,
EM: Exactly. This can take a fully loaded 747 with maximum fuel,
747上乘客满员、货物满员 ——
maximum passengers, maximum cargo on the 747 —
可以整体当作货物。
this can take it as cargo.
CA:所以基于这个
CA: So based on this,
你最近展示了这个星际传送系统
you presented recently this Interplanetary Transport System
画出来是这个样子的。
which is visualized this way.
这个场景你描述的是 30年后?20年后?
This is a scene you picture in, what, 30 years time? 20 years time?
人们走进这个火箭。
People walking into this rocket.
EM:我希望这是8到10年之后的场景。
EM: I’m hopeful it’s sort of an eight- to 10-year time frame.
这是我们的雄心壮志。
Aspirationally, that’s our target.
我们内部的目标更加的激进,不过我想 ——
Our internal targets are more aggressive, but I think —
(笑声)
(Laughter)
CA:好吧。
CA: OK.
EM:虽然航空器看起来非常大
EM: While vehicle seems quite large
并且比其它火箭都要大,
and is large by comparison with other rockets,
我想未来的宇宙飞船
I think the future spacecraft
会让这个看起来就像是小船一样。
will make this look like a rowboat.
未来的航天飞机将真的会很大。
The future spaceships will be truly enormous.
CA:为什么,伊隆?
CA: Why, Elon?
为什么我们需要在火星上建造城市
Why do we need to build a city on Mars
在你的有生之年移民一百万人口,
with a million people on it in your lifetime,
这是我理解的你想要做的事情?
which I think is kind of what you’ve said you’d love to do?
EM:我觉得非常重要的是
EM: I think it’s important to have
有一个激动人心和向往的未来。
a future that is inspiring and appealing.
我就是觉得必须要有理由
I just think there have to be reasons
让你每天早晨醒来的时候 有活下去的兴趣。
that you get up in the morning and you want to live.
像是,你为什么要活着?
Like, why do you want to live?
意义是什么?有什么东西鼓舞着你?
What’s the point? What inspires you?
未来你有什么期许?
What do you love about the future?
如果我们不能去火星,
And if we’re not out there,
如果我们的未来不包括 在多个行星上生活
if the future does not include being out there among the stars
并且成为跨行星的物种,
and being a multiplanet species,
我发现这将会特别的令人失望,
I find that it’s incredibly depressing
如果这个不是我们即将 迎来的未来的话。
if that’s not the future that we’re going to have.
(掌声)
(Applause)
CA:人们可能将这个事情放在次要位置,
CA: People want to position this as an either or,
或者说这个星球上已经有那么多 叫人绝望的事情,
that there are so many desperate things happening on the planet now
从气候问题到贫困问题,而你, 你挑了你关心的问题。
from climate to poverty to, you know, you pick your issue.
这感觉像是有点偏离重点。
And this feels like a distraction.
你不应该思考这些。
You shouldn’t be thinking about this.
你应该解决当前和当下的问题。
You should be solving what’s here and now.
公平地讲,你已经做了一些 实质性的工作
And to be fair, you’ve done a fair old bit to actually do that
比如你在可再生能源上的贡献。
with your work on sustainable energy.
但是为什么不满足于此呢?
But why not just do that?
EM:我觉得 ——
EM: I think there’s —
我是从概率的角度看待未来的。
I look at the future from the standpoint of probabilities.
未来就像是不断在的分岔路上做选择,
It’s like a branching stream of probabilities,
有一些行为是我们可以做的 会改变可能性
and there are actions that we can take that affect those probabilities
或是加快一件事情, 或是减慢一件事情。
or that accelerate one thing or slow down another thing.
我可能在这个可能性的洪流中 引入新的东西。
I may introduce something new to the probability stream.
可再生能源一定会发生。
Sustainable energy will happen no matter what.
如果没有特斯拉, 特斯拉从未存在,
If there was no Tesla, if Tesla never existed,
它也会因为有存在的必要性而出现。
it would have to happen out of necessity.
这是赘述。
It’s tautological.
如果你没有可再生能源, 意味着你有不可再生能源。
If you don’t have sustainable energy, it means you have unsustainable energy.
最终能源会耗尽,
Eventually you will run out,
经济定律会引导我们的文明
and the laws of economics will drive civilization
朝着可再生能源发展,
towards sustainable energy,
不可避免的。
inevitably.
像是特斯拉这样的企业的根本价值
The fundamental value of a company like Tesla
在于一定程度上加速 可再生能源的到来,
is the degree to which it accelerates the advent of sustainable energy,
会比没有特斯拉的时候来得更快。
faster than it would otherwise occur.
所以当我想着,比如,
So when I think, like,
像是特斯拉这样的企业的核心价值,
what is the fundamental good of a company like Tesla,
我会说,希望是,
I would say, hopefully,
如果它能够推动这个进程提前十年, 可能超过十年,
if it accelerated that by a decade, potentially more than a decade,
那么这将是非常好的事情。
that would be quite a good thing to occur.
这是我所考虑的
That’s what I consider to be
特斯拉公司最核心的雄心壮志。
the fundamental aspirational good of Tesla.
然后我想到了跨星球的物种 和在宇宙中分型的文明。
Then there’s becoming a multiplanet species and space-faring civilization.
这并不是必然发生的。
This is not inevitable.
这件事情并不是必然发生, 这非常重要。
It’s very important to appreciate this is not inevitable.
可再生能源的未来,我觉得 很大程度上是必然发生的。
The sustainable energy future I think is largely inevitable,
但是成为能够在宇宙间飞行的文明 显然不是必然要发生的未来。
but being a space-faring civilization is definitely not inevitable.
如果你看下太空技术的进步,
If you look at the progress in space,
在1969年我们就可以把人送上月球。
in 1969 you were able to send somebody to the moon.
1969.
1969.
后来我们有了航天飞机。
Then we had the Space Shuttle.
航天飞机只能够把人送入低轨。
The Space Shuttle could only take people to low Earth orbit.
然后航天飞机退休了,
Then the Space Shuttle retired,
然后美国就没有办法把人送入轨道了。
and the United States could take no one to orbit.
所以这就是趋势。
So that’s the trend.
这个趋势是退化到什么都没有。
The trend is like down to nothing.
人们有时候会错误的理解
People are mistaken when they think
觉得技术肯定是自动的提升的。
that technology just automatically improves.
技术并不会自动的改进。
It does not automatically improve.
只有当很多人投入大量精力 努力去改善的时候才有可能。
It only improves if a lot of people work very hard to make it better,
我想实际上,技术本身是会退化的。
and actually it will, I think, by itself degrade, actually.
你看看古埃及的伟大文明,
You look at great civilizations like Ancient Egypt,
他们当时建造了金字塔,
and they were able to make the pyramids,
他们现在忘记怎么建造的了。
and they forgot how to do that.
还有罗马人,他们建造了难以置信的 沟渠系统。
And then the Romans, they built these incredible aqueducts.
他们也忘记怎么建造的了。
They forgot how to do it.
CA:伊隆,看起来,听你说的话
CA: Elon, it almost seems, listening to you
以及看着你做的这些不同的工作,
and looking at the different things you’ve done,
你的每件事情都有这独特的 双重动机,
that you’ve got this unique double motivation on everything
我发现这很有意思。
that I find so interesting.
一个动机是渴望做人类长远福祉的事。
One is this desire to work for humanity’s long-term good.
另一个是做激动人心的事。
The other is the desire to do something exciting.
而且看起来你经常会觉得需要用 一个动机去主导另一个动机。
And often it feels like you feel like you need the one to drive the other.
对特斯拉你希望有可再生能源,
With Tesla, you want to have sustainable energy,
所以你做出了这样炫酷的轿车 来达到这个目的。
so you made these super sexy, exciting cars to do it.
太阳能,我们需要实现它,
Solar energy, we need to get there,
所以我们需要这些漂亮的屋顶。
so we need to make these beautiful roofs.
我们还没有谈论到你最新的东西,
We haven’t even spoken about your newest thing,
我们的时间有限,
which we don’t have time to do,
但是你希望避免坏的AI毁灭人性,
but you want to save humanity from bad AI,
所以你想要创建一个真的很酷的 人脑跟机器的接口
and so you’re going to create this really cool brain-machine interface
给我们无限的记忆和心灵感应等等。
to give us all infinite memory and telepathy and so forth.
关于火星,感觉你说的是,
And on Mars, it feels like what you’re saying is,
对,我们需要拯救人类,
yeah, we need to save humanity
需要有一个备份方案,
and have a backup plan,
但是同时我们也需要激发人性,
but also we need to inspire humanity,
这是激励我们的方式。
and this is a way to inspire.
EM:我认为美和激励人心的价值
EM: I think the value of beauty and inspiration
被大大的低估了,
is very much underrated,
毫无疑问。
no question.
但是我想要澄清一点。
But I want to be clear.
我不想成为谁的救世主。
I’m not trying to be anyone’s savior.
那不是 ——
That is not the —
我只是想要想象未来
I’m just trying to think about the future
希望不要失望。
and not be sad.
(掌声)
(Applause)
CA:完美的说辞。
CA: Beautiful statement.
我想每个人都会同意
I think everyone here would agree
那不是 ——
that it is not —
没有任何一件事情 是确定会发生的。
None of this is going to happen inevitably.
你脑海中的这些事实, 你梦想的东西,
The fact that in your mind, you dream this stuff,
你梦想的东西没有人敢这么做梦,
you dream stuff that no one else would dare dream,
或者没有其他人能够将梦想
or no one else would be capable of dreaming
达到你这个能力和级别的复杂程度。
at the level of complexity that you do.
事实上你做的事情,伊隆·马斯克, 真的都很了不起。
The fact that you do that, Elon Musk, is a really remarkable thing.
感谢你让我们的梦想都变大了一点。
Thank you for helping us all to dream a bit bigger.
EM:但是当我开始变得有些疯狂的时候, 你们会提醒我的,对吧?
EM: But you’ll tell me if it ever starts getting genuinely insane, right?
(笑声)
(Laughter)
CA:谢谢你,伊隆·马斯克。 这真的非常、非常的棒。
CA: Thank you, Elon Musk. That was really, really fantastic.
真的非常棒。
That was really fantastic.
(掌声)
(Applause)

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