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未来的货币

The future of money | Neha Narula

我要和你们说的是货币的未来
I want to tell you about the future of money.
我们先从一个20世纪早期的故事开始
Let’s start with a story about this culture
这个故事发生在20世纪初密克罗尼西亚 一个叫做雅浦的小岛上
that lived in Micronesia in the early 1900s, called the Yap.
现在我想告诉你关于雅浦岛的故事
Now, I want to tell you about the Yap
是因为他们使用的货币非常有趣
because their form of money is really interesting.
他们使用的是这些名为Rai石币的石灰岩圆盘
They use these limestone discs called Rai stones.
现在 不同于我们平时花钱的方式
Now, the Yap don’t actually move these Rai stones around
雅浦人实际上并没有移动或交换这些Rai石币
or exchange them the way we do with our coins,
因为他们的Rai石币实在太重
because Rai stones can get to be pretty massive.
最大的石币可重达4吨 直径达12英尺
The largest is about four tons and 12 feet across.
所以雅浦人只是记录下谁拥有哪些石币的哪个部分
So the Yap just keep track of who owns part of what stone.
有一个关于雅浦岛船员的故事
There’s a story about these sailors
他们在运输一块石币回到岛上的途中
that were transporting a stone across the ocean
遇上海难而石沉大海
when they ran into some trouble and the stone actually fell in.
当船员们回到岛上
The sailors got back to the main island
把海上所发生的事告诉大家
and they told everyone what had happened.
最后大家一致认为 实际上 是的
And everyone decided that, actually, yes,
那些船员丢失的石币仍然是他们财产的一部分
the sailors had the stone and — why not? — it still counted.
他们确实拥有那些石币 为什么不算呢?
Even though it was at the bottom of the ocean,
它仍然是雅浦经济的一部分
it was still part of the Yap economy.
你可能会觉得这只是一百多年前
You might think that this was just a small culture
一个小小的经济文化
a hundred years ago.
但是 类似的事情也发生在西方世界
But things like this happen in the Western world as well,
而雅浦人至今也仍然把石币作为一种交易货币
and the Yap actually still use a form of these stones.
1932年法国银行向美国申请
In 1932, the Bank of France asked the United States
将其持有的美元兑换为黄金
to convert their holdings from dollars into gold.
然而 真的要将所有这些黄金运到欧洲的话
But it was too inconvenient to think about actually shipping
又实在是过于不便 让人难以想象
all of that gold over to Europe.
所以 只能换一种办法 派人前往美国黄金储备处
So instead, someone went to where that gold was being stored
把至今属于法国的黄金打上标记
and they just labeled it as belonging to France now.
所有人都承认这些黄金是属于法国的
And everyone agreed that France owned the gold.
就像那些Rai石币一样
It’s just like those Rai stones.
我想用这两个例子来说明
The point I want to make with these two examples
没有一种东西的价值是固有的
is that there’s nothing inherently valuable
不论是美元、石头还是硬币
about a dollar or a stone or a coin.
这些东西拥有价值只是因为
The only reason these things have any value
我们赋予了它们价值
is because we’ve all decided they should.
也正是因为我们这样定义
And because we’ve decided that,
它们才有价值
they do.
金钱是存在我们之间
Money is about the exchanges and the transactions
用于交换和交易的东西
that we have with each other.
钱并不是客观具体存在的事物
Money isn’t anything objective.
它是帮助我们互相了解价值的 故事的集合
It’s about a collective story that we tell each other about value.
一个虚构故事的集合
A collective fiction.
这是一种很强大的概念
And that’s a really powerful concept.
在过去二十年里
In the past two decades,
我们才刚开始使用数字货币
we’ve begun to use digital money.
我的工资直接存入我的储蓄账户
So I get paid via direct deposit,
我通过银行转账来支付房租
I pay my rent via bank transfer,
在线支付我的税款
I pay my taxes online.
每个月
And every month,
我薪水中的一小部分
a small amount of money is deducted from my paycheck
都会存入我退休账户里的互惠基金名下
and invested in mutual funds in my retirement account.
毫不夸张的说
All of these interactions
所有这些交易行为只是电脑程序中1和0的改变
are literally just changing 1’s and 0’s on computers.
甚至没有什么像石头或硬币那样的物质存在
There’s not even anything physical, like a stone or a coin.
数字货币可以让我给世界各地的人付款时
Digital money makes it so that I can pay someone around the world
只需几秒钟
in seconds.
这个方式行得通
Now when this works,
是因为有庞大的机构来保障
it’s because there are large institutions underwriting every 1 or 0
电脑程序里1、0之间变化的可靠性
that changes on a computer.
如果不能顺利进行
And when it doesn’t,
说明那些庞大机构们出现了故障
it’s often the fault of those large institutions.
或者至少说 他们需要去解决这个问题
Or at least, it’s up to them to fix the problem.
但大多数时 他们并不这样做
And a lot of times, they don’t.
在这个系统中存在很多的摩擦
There’s a lot of friction in the system.
美国信用卡公司花了多久才让
How long did it take the US credit card companies
芯片技术和密码得到应用?
to implement chip and pin?
我仍然有一半的信用卡不能在欧洲使用
Half my credit cards still don’t work in Europe.
这就是摩擦
That’s friction.
跨境和跨货币汇款的手续费是
Transferring money across borders and across currencies
非常昂贵的:
is really expensive:
这也是摩擦
friction.
印度的企业家可以在很短的时间内建立一个网络在线业务
An entrepreneur in India can set up an online business in minutes,
但她却很难获得贷款和付款
but it’s hard for her to get loans and to get paid:
另外一种摩擦
friction.
数字货币的使用和自由交易
Our access to digital money and our ability to freely transact
被这些交换服务器们所控制
is being held captive by these gatekeepers.
并且系统中存在很多的阻碍减缓了这流程
And there’s a lot of impediments in the system slowing things down.
这是因为数字货币并不真的属于我
That’s because digital money isn’t really mine,
它只是存在于我的银行、信用卡公司或是投资公司的
it’s entries in databases that belong to my bank,
数据库的入口
my credit card company or my investment firm.
而这些公司有权说“不”
And these companies have the right to say “no.”
假设我是一个PayPal上的卖家
If I’m a PayPal merchant
如果PayPal错误地把我标记为诈骗分子
and PayPal wrongly flags me for fraud,
那么我的账户便会被冻结
that’s it.
我也收不到付款
My account gets frozen, and I can’t get paid.
这些机构急需变革
These institutions are standing in the way of innovation.
你们有多少人在用脸书相册、谷歌照片
How many of you use Facebook photos, Google Photos,
和Instagram呢?
Instagram?
我的照片到处都是
My photos are everywhere.
它们在我的手机上 它们在我的笔记本电脑上
They are on my phone, they’re on my laptop,
它们在我的旧手机和Dropbox上
they’re on my old phone, they’re in Dropbox.
他们在这些各种各样的网站、服务器上
They’re on all these different websites and services.
而且这些服务中的大多数不能一起工作
And most of these services don’t work together.
更不存在交互操作
They don’t inter-operate.
结果可想而知
And as a result,
我的相册全是乱糟糟的
my photo library is a mess.
同样的事情也发生在
The same thing happens
货币控制机构
when institutions control the money supply.
很多这些服务商并没有进行互相合作
A lot of these services don’t inter-operate,
这限制了我们付款行为
and as a result, this blocks what we can do with payment.
这也使得交易费用的上涨
And it makes transaction costs go up.
截至到现在 我们已经经历了两种货币形式
So far, we’ve been through two phases of money.
在模拟世界中 我们必须处理这些物理对象
In an analog world, we had to deal with these physical objects,
货币移动的速度也等同是人们的速度
and money moved at a certain speed — the speed of humans.
而在数字世界中 货币可以走得更远 更快
In a digital world, money can reach much farther and is much faster,
但依旧受货币机构的控制
but we’re at the mercy of these gatekeeper institutions.
转移速度只能靠银行的速度
Money only moves at the speed of banks.
我们将要进入一个新的货币阶段
We’re about to enter a new phase of money.
未来的货币是可以程序化的
The future of money is programmable.
当我们把软件和货币结合在一起
When we combine software and currency,
货币不仅仅是一种静态的价值单位
money becomes more than just a static unit of value,
我们也不需要再依赖于各大机构的安全系统
and we don’t have to rely on institutions for security.
在可编程的世界里
In a programmable world,
人类和机构不再参与到金钱交易的圈子里
we remove humans and institutions from the loop.
当这样的情况发生后
And when this happens,
我们甚至感受不到我们正在进行交易
we won’t even feel like we’re transacting anymore.
资金将会在软件的运行指导下
Money will be directed by software,
安全放心地进行交易
and it will just safely and securely flow.
加密货币将是货币革新的第一步
Cryptocurrencies are the first step of this evolution.
加密货币是一种
Cryptocurrencies are digital money
无需政府机构或者银行参与的数字货币
that isn’t run by any government or bank.
是一种无需媒介也能实现其功能的货币
It’s money designed to work in a world without intermediaries.
比特币便是如今应用最广泛的一种加密货币
Bitcoin is the most ubiquitous cryptocurrency,
而且它有几百种存在形式
but there are hundreds of them.
比如其中一些比较流行的币种
There’s Ethereum, Litecoin, Stellar, Dogecoin,
以太币 莱特币 恒星币 多吉币等
and those are just a few of the more popular ones.
它们也都是真实的货币
And these things are real money.
我住的那条街上的寿司店也可以
The sushi restaurant down my street
用比特币结账
takes Bitcoin.
我可以用我手机上的一个应用程序给生鱼片付款
I have an app on my phone that I can use to buy sashimi.
但比特币不仅仅应用于小额付款
But it’s not just for small transactions.
今年三月份 有一笔交易高达10万比特币
In March, there was a transaction that moved around 100,000 bitcoins.
近似于4千万美元
That’s the equivalent of 40 million US dollars.
加密货币是基于一种特殊的数学算法
Cryptocurrencies are based on a special field of mathematics
称为密码学
called cryptography.
密码学是一门关于保障通信安全的学科
Cryptography is the study of how to secure communication,
其中有两件特别重要的事
and it’s about two really important things:
1. 为信息加密 使之能隐藏在简单的形式下
masking information so it can be hidden in plain sight,
2. 核实一小部分的信息来源
and verifying a piece of information’s source.
密码学是存在于我们周围很多系统的基础
Cryptography underpins so many of the systems around us.
由于密码学是如此的有用
And it’s so powerful that at times
美国政府甚至把它列为一种武器
the US government has actually classified it as a weapon.
在二战时期 破译类似恩尼格码的密码
During World War II, breaking cryptosystems like Enigma
在解译敌方通信中起着至关重要的作用
was critical to decoding enemy transmissions
甚至扭转了战争的趋势
and turning the tide of the war.
如今任何人都在用的浏览器
Today, anyone with a modern web browser is running
也是由一套复杂的密码系统支持运行的
a pretty sophisticated cryptosystem.
它能保障我们在网络交互时的安全性
It’s what we use to secure our interactions on the Internet.
它能保障我们在输入密码以及将金融信息
It’s what makes it safe for us to type our passwords in
发送到网络时的安全性
and to send financial information to websites.
那我们熟知的银行提供了什么服务呢?
So what the banks used to give us —
可靠的数字货币交易
trustworthy digital money transfer —
当密码学投入使用后
we can now get with a clever application of cryptography.
这意味着我们不再需要依赖于银行
And this means that we don’t have to rely on the banks anymore
来确保我们交易的安全性
to secure our transactions.
我们自己也可以保障我们的交易安全
We can do it ourselves.
比特币的概念和雅浦石币类似
Bitcoin is based on the very same idea that the Yap used,
都是基于全球交易认知的集合
this collective global knowledge of transfers.
在比特币世界里 我花费的是比特币
In Bitcoin, I spend by transferring Bitcoin,
收入也以比特币的形式获得
and I get paid when someone transfers Bitcoin to me.
假设这是张有魔法的纸
Imagine that we had this magic paper.
当我把这张纸给你后
So the way that this paper works is I can give you a sheet of it
你在纸上写的任何东西
and if you write something on it,
都会出现在我的这张纸上
it will magically appear on my piece as well.
假设每个人都有这张神奇的纸
Let’s say we just give everyone this paper
当每个人都写下他们
and everyone writes down the transfers that they’re doing
在比特币系统里的交易
in the Bitcoin system.
那每个人的纸上都会同时显示这些交易信息
All of these transfers get copied around to everyone else’s pieces of paper.
而我的纸上
And I can look at mine
也会有在整个比特币系统里发生的
and I’ll have a list of all of the transfers that are happening
所有交易流程
in the entire Bitcoin economy.
实际上 在比特币区块链里发生的所有交易
This is actually what’s happening with the Bitcoin blockchain,
就是以这种方式进行
which is a list of all of the transactions in Bitcoin.
只是交易方式不是在纸上进行的
Except, it’s not done through paper.
而是在整个世界的互联网内
It’s done through computer code,
成千上万计算机的
running on thousands of networked computers
程序里运行
around the world.
所有这些计算机都共同记录了
All of these computers are collectively confirming
谁拥有多少比特币
who owns what Bitcoin.
所以比特币区块链是比特币能顺利运行的关键
So the Bitcoin blockchain is core to how Bitcoin works.
但这些比特币从哪儿来呢?
But where do bitcoins actually come from?
比特币来源于设定好的
Well, the code is designed to create new Bitcoin
用于制造新比特币的程序
according to a schedule.
它工作的方式是 如果我想获得那些比特币
And the way that it works is that to get those Bitcoin,
我就必须解开一种随机密码的谜题
I have to solve a puzzle — a random cryptographic puzzle.
想像一下 假如我们有15个骰子
Imagine that we had 15 dice,
我们不停地投掷这些骰子
and we were throwing these dice over and over again.
当所有的骰子都是6时 设定为我们赢
Whenever the dice come up all sixes,
这近似于所有计算机的工作模式
we say that we win.
这近似于所有计算机的工作模式
This is very close to what these computers are all actually doing.
计算机不停地进行运算以得到正确的数字
They’re trying over and over again to land on the right number.
当正确的数字被计算出来
And when they do,
我们说我们解开了“谜题”
we say that they’ve solved the puzzle.
解开了谜题的计算机
The computer that solves the puzzle
把结果发布到互联网上
publishes its solution to the rest of the network
并获得新的比特币作为奖励
and collects its reward: new bitcoins.
在解开谜题的过程中
And in the act of solving this puzzle,
这些计算机也在逐渐加强比特币区块链的安全性
these computers are actually helping to secure the Bitcoin blockchain
并把它添加入交易列表中
and add to the list of transactions.
而在全球范围内 确实有人运行这样的程序
There are actually people all over the world running this software,
他们被称之为比特币矿工
and we call them Bitcoin miners.
每个人都能成为比特币矿工
Anyone can become a Bitcoin miner.
你现在就可以从网上下载这个程序
You can go download the software right now
在计算机上运行来赚取比特币
and run it in your computer and try to collect some bitcoins.
但我并不建议大家这样做
I can’t say that I would recommend it,
因为现在随着谜题越来越难 而互联网又是如此的强大
because right now, the puzzle is so hard and the network is so powerful,
我曾经试过用我自己的电脑挖取比特币
that if I tried to mine Bitcoin on my laptop,
但我想我要在两百万年后才能挖到一个比特币
I probably wouldn’t see any for about two million years.
专业的“矿工”使用特殊定制的硬件
The miners, professional miners, use this special hardware
以便能使解决谜题的速度大大加快
that’s designed to solve the puzzle really fast.
据估计 现如今比特币网络以及
Now, the Bitcoin network and all of this special hardware,
所有专用硬件所消耗的总能源
there are estimates that the amount of energy it uses
接近于一个小国家所使用的能源
is equivalent to that of a small country.
第一代加密货币的运行速度比较慢
So, the first set of cryptocurrencies
效率也比较低
are a little bit slow and a little bit cumbersome.
但它也在渐渐变得更快更好
But the next generation is going to be so much better and so much faster.
要想进入一个全球性程序化货币的世界
Cryptocurrencies are the first step
加密货币是需要迈出的第一步
to a world with a global programmable money.
在程序化货币的世界里
And in a world with programmable money,
我可以放心的把钱支付给任何人
I can pay anyone else securely
而不用我的签名或是得到相关机构的许可
without having to sign up or ask permission,
也不需要兑换货币或者担忧上当受骗
or do a conversion or worry about my money getting stuck.
我的钱在全世界范围都可以使用
And I can send money around the world.
这是件多棒的事呢!
This is a really amazing thing.
这个想法是一个不需要授予权限的革新
It’s the idea of permission-less innovation.
互联网促成了改革爆炸
The Internet caused an explosion of innovation,
因为它是建立在一个开放的空间架构
because it was built upon an open architecture.
正如互联网改变了我们的交流方式
And just like the Internet changed the way we communicate,
程序化货币将会改变我们的支付方式
programmable money is going to change the way we pay,
对价值的分配以及决定
allocate and decide on value.
所以 程序化货币能建立一个怎样的世界呢?
So what kind of world does programmable money create?
想象一下这样的世界 我可以把我的
Imagine a world where I can rent out my healthcare data
健康数据租用给制药公司
to a pharmaceutical company.
他们能进行基于大范围的数据分析
They can run large-scale data analysis
随后我将会收到一个验证密码
and provide me with a cryptographic proof
只有通过我的验证 制药公司才有权使用我的数据
that shows they’re only using my data in a way that we agreed.
如果他们有了什么发现 我就会获得相应的报酬
And they can pay me for what they find out.
我们与其去申请流媒体服务
Instead of signing up for streaming services
交纳有线电视费
and getting a cable bill,
不如通过电视程序来分析我的喜好
what if my television analyzed my watching habits
推荐一个价格良好、符合预算
and recommended well-priced content that fit within my budget
并且能让我喜欢的节目目录
that I would enjoy?
想象一下没有任何广告的网络
Imagine an Internet without ads,
我们不再需要关注于节目目录
because instead of paying with our attention when we view content,
我们只要付钱就可以
we just pay.
有趣的是 类似微支付的方式
Interestingly, things like micro-payments
能改变现在所使用的安全保障方式
are actually going to change the way security works in our world,
因为一旦我们能更好地分配价值
because once we’re better able to allocate value,
我们会把金钱和能源都利用在
people will use their money and their energies
更加有建设性的事情上
for more constructive things.
如果发送一封邮件需要支付零点几美分
If it cost a fraction of a cent to send an email,
那还会有垃圾邮件吗?
would we still have spam?
那样的世界还未到来
We’re not at this world yet,
但很快就能实现
but it’s coming.
现在的状况就类似于当初汽车的首次亮相
Right now, it’s like we’re in a world that is seeing the first automobile.
首次出现的加密货币就像那第一辆汽车
The first cryptocurrency, like the first car,
速度慢、令人费解 也不好操作
is slow and hard to understand and hard to use.
数字货币就像马和马车
Digital money, like the horse and carriage,
如今依旧运行得很好
works pretty well,
整个世界的经济也是基于数字货币
and the whole world economy is built on it.
如果你是你们街区第一个
If you were the first person on your block
拥有内燃发动机的汽车的人
to get a car with an internal combustion engine,
周围的邻居可能都会认为你疯了
your neighbors would probably think you were crazy:
为什么你会用那样庞大笨重的机器
“Why would you want this large, clunky machine
还总是出现故障或者着起火来
that breaks down all the time, that lights on fire,
速度也不如马车快
and is still slower than a horse?”
但我们都知道后面发生了什么
But we all know how that story turns out.
我们正步入一个程序化货币的时代
We’re entering a new era of programmable money.
这很振奋人心 但也有点令人惊慌
And it’s very exciting, but it’s also a little bit scary.
加密货币也能够用于非法交易
Cryptocurrencies can be used for illegal transactions,
就像现在的现金犯罪一样
just like cash is used for crime in the world today.
如果我们所有的交易都在网上进行
When all of our transactions are online,
谁能成为监管者呢?
what does that mean for surveillance — who can see what we do?
在那样的新世界 谁能获利 谁又不能呢?
Who’s advantaged in this new world and who isn’t?
我需要支付一些我现在并不需要支付的项目吗?
Will I have to start to pay for things that I didn’t have to pay for before?
我们都会成为算法和应用函数的奴隶吗?
Will we all become slaves to algorithms and utility functions?
新技术的应用都需要我们舍弃一些东西
All new technology comes with trade-offs.
互联网提供了各种各样浪费时间的方式
The Internet brought us a lot of ways to waste time.
但它同时也大幅度提高了生产率
But it also greatly increased productivity.
手机也有利有弊
Mobile phones are annoying
我不得不无时无刻地关注
because they make me feel like I have to stay connected to work
外面的状况
all the time.
但它同时也让我和家人朋友保持联系
But they also help me stay connected to friends and family.
新的共享经济也会限制一些工种
The new sharing economy is going to eliminate some jobs.
但它也会建立起一个新兴灵活的雇佣形式
But it’s also going to create new, flexible forms of employment.
程序化货币
With programmable money,
打破了我们和庞大的网络安全保障机构
we decouple the need for large, trusted institutions
之间的联系
from the architecture of the network.
也能推动货币革新 突破它的范围限制
And this pushes innovation in money out to the edges, where it belongs.
程序化货币使得货币变得民主化
Programmable money democratizes money.
因此 事物甚至将会以我们无法预测的方式
And because of this, things are going to change and unfold
改变和呈现出来
in ways that we can’t even predict.
谢谢大家!
Thank you.
[掌声]
[Applause]

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视频概述

w未来的货币将会是什么样的呢?虚拟货币会不会取代真实货币?未来世界的货币有可能是比特币一类的加密货币。数字货币研究者Neha Narula为我们描述了货币在未来世界可能的发展。

听录译者

收集自网络

翻译译者

B11101001

审核员

赖皮

视频来源

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pPgd7Hj3ABQ

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