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金拱门、黑帮与毒品 – 译学馆
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金拱门、黑帮与毒品

The freakonomics of McDonalds vs. drugs | Steven Levitt

每年
1000位知名人士齐聚加利福尼亚州蒙特雷
交换无价之宝
他们的观点
这些观点从未被分享过
直到现在
你们将会很庆幸我要讲的并非自己的遭遇
You’ll be happy to know that I’ll be talking not about my own tragedy,
而是其他人的遭遇
but other people’s tragedy.
相对自身的遭遇 我们容易轻松看待
It’s a lot easier to be lighthearted about other people’s tragedy
他人的遭遇
than your own,
我想通过讨论来注意这一点
and I want to keep it in the spirit of the conference.
如果你相信那些媒体
So, if you believe the media accounts,
用Virginia Postrel的话说
being a drug dealer in the height of the crack cocaine epidemic
可卡因风潮中当个毒贩子是光鲜的
was a very glamorous life, in the words of Virginia Postrel.
他们有钱 有药 有枪 有女人
There was money, there was drugs, guns, women,
有你能想到的一切 闪闪发光的珠宝 这些都会有
you know, you name it — jewelry, bling-bling — it had it all.
实际上今天要讲的东西是基于10年的调查
What I’m going to tell you today is that, in fact, based on 10 years of research,
(我的同伴)机缘巧合混入黑帮
a unique opportunity to go inside a gang —
可以看到真正的书面记录 黑帮的财务记录
to see the actual books, the financial records of the gang —
结果表明
that the answer turns out not to be
成为黑帮 并不光鲜
that being in the gang was a glamorous life.
但我认为 更现实的情况是
But I think, more realistically, that being in a gang —
成为黑帮一员 为黑帮卖药 也许是全美最糟糕的工作
selling drugs for a gang — is perhaps the worst job in all of America.
而这就是我今天要论述的
And that’s what I’d like to convince you of today.
接下来我有三点要讲
So there are three things I want to do.
首先 我要解释可卡因
First, I want to explain how and why crack cocaine
对内城黑帮影响的重大程度及原因
had such a profound influence on inner-city gangs.
其次 我要讲
Secondly, I want to tell you
像我一样的人如何看到
how somebody like me came to be able to see
黑帮的内部运作 这是个有趣的故事
the inner workings of a gang — an interesting story, I think.
最后 我想要用一种很浅显的方式
And then third, I want to tell you, in a very superficial way,
讲一下我们在翻阅这些
about some of the things we found
关于黑帮财务记录的书中
when we actually got to look at the financial records,
发现的事
the books, of the gang.
在开始之前 有个警告
So before I do that, just one warning,
展示中的部分内容
which is that this presentation has been rated ‘R’
被美国电影协会认定为R级
by the Motion Picture Association of America.
内容包括成人主题 成人用语
It contains adult themes, adult language.
台上是什么人 你们心里是有数的
Given who is up on the stage, you’ll be delighted to know
不过 不会出现裸体
that, in fact, there’ll be no nudity —
[笑声]
(Laughter)
也没有意外的走光
Unexpected wardrobe malfunctions aside.
[笑声]
(Laughter)
我们先讲讲可卡因
So let me start by talking about crack cocaine,
以及它是如何改变黑帮的
and how it transformed the gang.
为说明这一点 要回溯到80年代早期
To do that, you have to actually go back to a time before crack cocaine,
可卡因出现之前 对黑帮老大而言
in the early ’80s, and look at it from the perspective of a gang leader.
在80年代 做内城黑帮老大也不赖
Being a gang leader in the inner city wasn’t such a bad deal in the mid-’80s —
我说的是80年代早期
the early ’80s, let me say.
那时你有势力 能火拼
Now, you had a lot of power, and you got to beat people up —
你有声望 有地位
you got a lot of prestige, a lot of respect.
但那时没钱
But the thing is, there was no money in it.
黑帮没有赚钱的渠道
The gang had no way to make money.
你没法惩罚黑帮的人
You couldn’t charge dues to the people in the gang,
因为黑帮的人没钱
because the people in the gang didn’t have any money.
卖大麻赚不到钱
You couldn’t really make any money selling marijuana —
大麻太便宜
marijuana’s too cheap, it turns out.
你卖大麻不能致富
You can’t get rich selling marijuana.
你不能卖可卡因
You couldn’t sell cocaine;
可卡因是好东西 特别是可卡因粉
cocaine’s a great product — powdered cocaine —
但你必须认识白人富豪
but you’ve got to know rich white people.
大多数内城黑帮成员不认识任何白人富豪
And most of the inner-city gang members didn’t know any rich white people,
所以没办法把可卡因卖给富人阶级
so couldn’t sell to that market.
你小偷小摸也不行
You couldn’t really do petty crime, either.
况且小偷小摸不是个谋生的好办法
Turns out, petty crime’s a terrible way to make a living.
因此 作为黑帮老大 有自己的势力
As a result, as a gang leader, you had, you know, power —
生活不错 但事实是
it’s a pretty good life — but the thing was, in the end,
你要和你妈住一起
you were living at home with your mother.
所以这真不是个好职业
And so it wasn’t really a career.
如果你和你妈住一起
There were limits to how powerful and important you could be
你就会知道限制有多大
if you had to live at home with your mother.
这时快克来了
Then along comes crack cocaine.
按Malcolm Gladwell所说
And in the words of Malcolm Gladwell,
对于内城黑帮 快克就是
crack cocaine was the extra-chunky version of tomato sauce
天上掉下来的馅饼
for the inner city.
[笑声]
(Laughter)
因为快克是难以置信的创新
Because crack cocaine was an unbelievable innovation.
我没有时间去讲它 但如果你们想了解
I don’t have time to talk about it today, but if you think about it,
我会说 这个国家
I would say that in the last 25 years,
过去25年的所有发明和发现中
of every invention or innovation that’s occurred in this country,
对内城生活的人幸福感
the biggest one in terms of impact
影响最大的
on the well-being of people who live in the inner city,
就是快克
was crack cocaine.
不说其它 最起码
And for the worse — not for the better, but for the worse.
它对生活有巨大影响
It had a huge impact on life.
那么快克究竟是什么
So what was it about crack cocaine?
它能使大脑兴奋上万倍
It was a brilliant way of getting the brain high.
因为你能抽快克 可卡因粉是不能抽的
Because you could smoke crack cocaine — you can’t smoke powdered cocaine —
相比于用鼻子吸入
and smoking is a much more efficient mechanism of delivering a high
抽会更嗨
than snorting it.
事实上曾有位观众不知道自己想抽快克
And it turned out there was this audience that didn’t know it wanted crack cocaine,
但一切都水到渠成
but when it came, it really did.
它确实是种不错的毒品
And it was a perfect drug;
你花1美元就能买到可卡因
you could buy the cocaine that went into it for a dollar,
转手5美元卖掉
sell it for five dollars.
极易成瘾 兴奋时间很短
Highly addictive — the high was very short.
你抽一次能嗨15分钟
So for fifteen minutes, you get this great high,
然后当快感过去后
and then when you come down,
你满脑子都想着要继续嗨
all you want to do is get high again.
它开拓了一个极佳的市场
It created a wonderful market.
对于经营黑帮的人而言
And for the people who were there running the gang,
这似乎是赚钱的好方法
it was a great way, seemingly, to make a lot of money.
至少对上层是如此
At least for the people on the top.
画面从这里开始
So this is where we enter the picture.
不是我 不过我倒是参与其中
Not really me — I’m really a bit player in all this.
我的合作伙伴 Sudhir Venkatesh才是主角
My co-author, Sudhir Venkatesh, is the main character.
他在大学主修数学 是个热心人
He was a math major in college who had a good heart,
并且决定去芝加哥大学
and decided he wanted to get a sociology PhD,
攻读社会学博士
came to the University of Chicago.
他到芝加哥的三个月前
Now, the three months before he came to Chicago,
迷上了感恩至死
he had spent following the Grateful Dead.
用他的话说 他“看上去很怪”
And in his own words, he “looked like a freak.”
他是南亚人 皮肤很黑的南亚人
He’s a South Asian — very dark-skinned South Asian.
很高大 用他的话说 “长发及腰”
Big man, and he had hair, in his words, “down to his ass.”
他打破了所有界限
Defied all kinds of boundaries:
他是白人还是黑人? 是男是女?
Was he black or white? Was he man or woman?
他看上去很古怪
He was really a curious sight to be seen.
所以他出现在芝加哥大学
So he showed up at the University of Chicago,
当时著名社会学家William Julius Wilson
and the famous sociologist William Julius Wilson
正在做一项调查 调查对象遍及芝加哥各种人群
was doing a book that involved surveying people all across Chicago.
当他一看到帮他做调查Sudhir
He took one look at Sudhir, who was going to go do some surveys for him,
就决定把他送到
and decided he knew exactly the place to send him,
不仅是芝加哥 还是全美最艰苦
which was to one of the toughest, most notorious housing projects
最狼藉的居住区去
not just in Chicago, but in the entire United States.
所以Sudhir 这个乡下男孩从未真正到过市中心贫民区
So Sudhir, the suburban boy who had never really been in the inner city,
他老实地带着笔记本来到这个居住区
dutifully took his clipboard and walked down to this housing project,
进了第一幢建筑
gets to the first building.
第一幢建筑? 嗯 没有人
The first building? Well, there’s nobody there.
但他听到楼梯井里有声音传来
But he hears some voices up in the stairwell,
他爬上楼梯井 来到角落
so he climbs up the stairwell, comes around the corner,
发现一群年轻非裔美国人在玩骰子
and finds a group of young African-American men playing dice.
那大概是1990年 可卡因泛滥的顶峰
This is about 1990, peak of the crack epidemic.
黑帮是非常危险的职业
This is a very dangerous job, being in a gang.
他们不喜欢惊吓
You don’t like to be surprised.
他们不喜欢被到角落瞎逛的人吓到
You don’t like to be surprised by people who come around the corner.
正所谓 能动手尽量别逼逼
And the mantra was: shoot first; ask questions later.
Sudhir很幸运 他是个怪人
Now, Sudhir was lucky — he was such a freak,
笔记本保住了他的命
and that clipboard probably saved his life,
因为他们知道没有对头黑帮成员
because they figured no other rival gang member
会想出用笔记本射他们
would be coming up to shoot at them with a clipboard.
[笑声]
(Laughter)
他的问候不很热情 不过他们确实说
So his greeting was not particularly warm, but they did say,
好 我们听听你调查的问题
well, OK — let’s hear your questions on your survey.
嗯 不开玩笑
So — I kid you not —
他问出的第一调查问题是
the first question on the survey that he was sent to ask was:
作为穷黑人 你们在美国生活得如何
“How do you feel about being poor and Black in America?”
[笑声]
(Laughter)
听起来挺傻的 是吧
Makes you wonder about academics.
[笑声]
(Laughter)
备选答案是
So the choice of answers were:
A很好 B不错 C不好 D很糟
[A) Very Good B) Good C) Bad D) Very Bad]
[笑声]
(Laughter)
Sudhir发现 事实上真正的答案应该是
What Sudhir found out is, in fact, that the real answer was the following:
A很好 B不错 C不好 D很糟 E艹
[A) Very Good B) Good C) Bad D) Very Bad E) Fuck you]
[笑声]
(Laughter)
最后 调查没有使Sudhir脱困
The survey was not, in the end, going to be what got Sudhir off the hook.
他在楼梯井里被扣了一整夜
He was held hostage overnight in the stairwell.
硝烟味很浓
There was a lot of gunfire,
他和黑帮成员进行了深入讨论
there were a lot of philosophical discussions he had with the gang members.
早上时 黑帮老大到了
By morning, the gang leader arrived,
确认Sudhir没有威胁后把他放了
checked out Sudhir, decided he was no threat,
之后让他回家了
and they let him go home.
Sudhir回到家 洗了个澡 打了个盹
So Sudhir went home, took a shower, took a nap.
你我碰到这种情况 可能会想
And you and I, probably, faced with the situation, would think,
“我想我的论文会写感恩至死
“I guess I’m going to write my dissertation on The Grateful Dead,
我已经粉了他们三个月了”
I’ve been following them for the last three months.”
[笑声]
(Laughter)
而Sudhir呢
Sudhir, on the other hand,
回到那个居住区
got right back, walked down to the housing project,
爬上二楼
went up to the second floor,
说“嘿 哥们 昨晚和你们待着太有趣了
and said: “Hey, guys, I had so much fun hanging out with you last night,
今晚我想再来一次”
I wonder if I could do it again tonight.”
这是一段奇妙关系的开始
And that was the beginning of what turned out to be a beautiful relationship
Sudhir在那幢居住区陆续住了10年
that involved Sudhir living in the housing project on and off for 10 years,
出入破旧的房子 和黑帮成员一起进监狱
hanging out in crack houses, going to jail with the gang members,
从他的车窗往外射击
having the windows shot out of his car,
被警察破门而入 盗走磁盘
having the police break into his apartment and steal his computer disks —
说出来你可能不信
you name it.
对Sudhir而言 结果还不错
But ultimately, the story has a happy ending for Sudhir,
他成了全国最受尊敬社会学家
who became one of the most respected sociologists in the country.
至于我
And especially for me,
我只是坐在办公室 打开Excel文档
as I sat in my office with my Excel spreadsheet open,
等着Sudhir来给我他
waiting for Sudhir to come and deliver to me the latest load of data
从黑帮得到的最新数据
that he would get from the gang.
[笑声]
(Laughter)
这种合作关系也太不公平了
It was one of the most unequal co-authoring relationships ever —
[笑声]
(Laughter)
但我从中受益良多
But I was glad to be the beneficiary of it.
我们发现了什么
So what did we find?
我们在黑帮发现了什么
What did we find in the gang?
好 我来说一件事
Well, let me say one thing:
我们接近黑帮的每个人
We really got access to everybody in the gang.
我们从黑帮的内部观察 从底层到高层
We got an inside look at the gang, from the very bottom up to the very top.
他们信任Sudhir 还没有任何学者
They trusted Sudhir, in ways that really no academic has ever —
任何外人能取得黑帮的信任
or really anybody, any outsider — has ever earned the trust of these gangs,
让他们敞开心扉
to the point where they actually opened up
我最感兴趣的东西 是他们的记录
what was most interesting for me — their books,
他们保存的财务记录
the financial records they kept.
他们给我们看这些记录 我们不仅可以研究这些记录
They made them available to us, and we not only could study them,
还可以问他们关于记录的问题
but we could ask them questions about what was in them.
如果要我简单地总结一下
So if I have to kind of summarize very quickly in the short time I have
从黑帮得到的结果表明
what the bottom line of what I take away from the gang is,
就是 如果我在黑帮和其它组织之间
it’s that, if I had to draw a parallel between the gang
做个比较
and any other organization,
黑帮就像是金拱门
it would be that the gang is just like McDonald’s,
在不同领域的金拱门
in a lot of different respects — the restaurant McDonald’s.
首先 一方面
So first, in one way,
也许不是最有趣的方面 但是个好的开始
which isn’t maybe the most interesting way, but it’s a good way to start —
一方面 黑帮是有组织的 黑帮的等级
is in the way it’s organized, the hierarchy of the gang,
看上去像这样
the way it looks.
这是黑帮的组织结构图
So here’s what the org chart of the gang looks like.
我不清楚你们是否了解组织结构图
I don’t know if you know much about org charts,
但如果你去分离简化金拱门的组织结构图
but if you were to assign a stripped-down and simplified McDonald’s org chart,
就会变成这个样子
this is exactly what it would look like.
很惊人 但黑帮的上层
It’s amazing, but the top level of the gang,
确实自称“董事会”
they actually call themselves the “Board of Directors.”
[笑声]
(Laughter)
Sudhir说
And Sudhir says
不像那些美国商界人士
it’s not like these guys had a very sophisticated view
那样圆滑世故
of what happened in American corporate life,
他们会看“华尔街”这种电影
but they had seen movies like “Wall Street,”
并且他们在现实世界中
and they had learned a little bit about what it was like
学到了一些雏形
to be in the real world.
在董事会下面
Now, below that board of directors,
你能看到实际上是区域副总裁
you’ve got essentially what are regional VPs —
他们控制着芝加哥的南区或西区
people who control, say, the South Side of Chicago, or the West Side of Chicago.
Sudhir很清楚拿到爱荷华州专营权
Sudhir got to know very well the guy who had the unfortunate assignment
这个任务有多难
of trying to take the Iowa franchise,
结果表明对于这个黑帮
which, it turned out, for this black gang,
他们的这种金融活动并不显得多高明
was not one of the more brilliant financial endeavors they undertook.
[笑声]
(Laughter)
但事实上正是特许经营者让黑帮变成了金拱门
But the thing that really makes the gang seem like McDonald’s is its franchisees.
他们经营的当地黑帮
The guys who are running the local gangs —
四方区域一个连着一个
the four-square-block by four-square-block areas —
某种意义上说 他们就像金拱门经营者
they’re just like the guys, in some sense, who are running the McDonald’s.
他们是企业家
They are the entrepreneurs.
他们有控制毒品出售的专营权
They get the exclusive property rights to control the drug-selling.
以背后黑帮的名义推销和出售
They get the name of the gang behind them, for merchandising and marketing.
他们利益的得失
And they’re the ones who basically make the profit or lose a profit,
取决于他们经营状态的好坏
depending on how good they are at running the business.
现在我想让你们想象一下
Now, the group I really want you to think about, though,
这些底层组织 马仔
are the ones at the bottom — the foot soldiers.
基本上他们是青年
These are the teenagers, typically,
他们站在街角 出售毒品
who’d be standing out on the street corner, selling the drugs.
工作非常危险
Extremely dangerous work.
划重点 几乎所有负担
And important to note is that almost all of the weight, all of the people
所有在这个组织内的人都处于底层 就像是金拱门
in this organization are at the bottom — just like McDonald’s.
在某种意义上 这些马仔就像是
So in some sense, the foot soldiers are a lot like the people
给你点单的金拱门员工
who are taking your order at McDonald’s,
这种相似并非偶然
and it’s not just by chance that they’re like them.
事实上 在一些社区 他们是同一些人
In fact, in these neighborhoods, they’d be the same people.
事实上这些孩子 在给黑帮工作的同时
So the same kids who are working in the gang were actually,
还在像金拱门
at the very same time, typically working part-time
这样的地方做兼职
at a place like McDonald’s.
这预示了我之前讲到的结论
Which already foreshadows the main result that I’ve talked about,
做黑帮是很糟糕的职业
about what a crappy job it was, being in the gang.
显然 如果黑帮是个有钱赚的好职业
Because obviously, if being in the gang were such a wonderful, lucrative job,
为什么这些人要在金拱门兼职
why in the world would these guys moonlight at McDonald’s?
那工资是多少呢 你们可能会惊讶
So what do the wages look like? You might be surprised.
基本上通过和他们交流 查看他们的记录
But based on being able to talk to them and to see their records,
这就是他们的工资
this is what it looks like in terms of the wages.
马仔的小时工资是3.5美元
The hourly wage the foot soldiers were earning was $3.50 an hour.
这比有据可查的最低工资还要低
It was below the minimum wage. And this is well-documented.
通过他们的消费模式显而易见
It’s easy to see by the patterns of consumption they have.
这不是小说 这是事实
It really is not fiction — it’s fact.
黑帮没钱 特别是底层
There was very little money in the gang, especially at the bottom.
如果你发达了 比如成为了某个区域的头
Now if you managed to rise up, say, and be that local leader,
相当于金拱门的特许经营者
the guy who’s the equivalent of the McDonald’s franchisee,
每年可以赚10万美元
you’d be making 100,000 dollars a year.
可以说 这就是你们梦寐以求的职业了
And that, in some ways, was the best job you could hope to get
如果你是一个生长在这些区域黑人青年
if you were growing up in one of these neighborhoods as a young black male.
如果你设法升到了头
If you managed to rise to the very top,
实现了每年挣20-40万美元的梦想
200,000 or 400,000 dollars a year is what you’d hope to make.
讲真 你就会是个励志故事
Truly, you would be a great success story.
遗憾的是
And one of the sad parts of this is that, indeed,
在快克的众多衍生物中
among the many other ramifications of crack cocaine
对于这些群体中最有才华的人
is that the most talented individuals in these communities —
这就是他们奋斗的东西
this is what they were striving for.
他们并不想让它变得合法
They weren’t trying to make it in legitimate ways,
因为没有合法渠道能出人头地
because there were no legitimate channels out.
这是出人头地的最好方法
This was the best way out.
而且事实上这也是
And it actually was the right choice, probably,
出人头地的最佳选择
to try to make it out this way.
看这个
You look at this,
拆解金拱门的组织关系
the relationship to McDonald’s breaks down here.
钱看上去都一样
The money looks about the same.
为何这个职业这么差
Why is it such a bad job?
这个职业差的原因在于时常会有人
Well, the reason it’s such a bad job is that there’s somebody shooting at you
射杀你
a lot of the time.
包括被射杀在内的死亡率是多少
So, with shooting at you, what are the death rates?
我们发现 在黑帮里
We found, in our gang —
显然 这并非正常状态
and admittedly, this was not really a standard situation;
一个帮派做得越成功
this was a time of intense violence, of a lot of gang wars,
暴力冲突 帮战就越频繁
as this gang actually became quite successful.
这就是代价
But there were costs.
而死亡率
And so the death rate —
不用说被抓入狱和受伤的比率
not to mention the rate of being arrested, sent to prison, being wounded —
我们样本的死亡率是每人每年7%
the death rate in our sample was seven percent per person per year.
在黑帮待4年
You’re in the gang for four years,
你死亡的预估值是25%
you expect to die with about a 25 percent likelihood.
你的死亡率能达到这么高
That is about as high as you can get.
出于比较的目的
So for comparison’s purposes,
我们来想一下你能想到的其它高危行业
let’s think about some other walk of life you may expect might be extremely risky.
比方说你是一名杀手
Let’s say that you were a murderer
你已被认定为谋杀罪 已经在死牢中
and you were convicted of murder, and you’re sent to death row.
结果 死牢中 包括死刑在内的总死亡率
It turns out, the death rates on death row from all causes, including execution:
每年2%
two percent a year.
[笑声]
(Laughter)
显然坐牢比在街上卖毒品
So it’s a lot safer being on death row
要安全得多
than it is selling drugs out on the street.
对于那些认为死刑对犯罪
That gives you some pause, for those of you who believe
有极大威慑作用的人 这确实值得思考
that a death penalty’s going to have an enormous deterrent effect on crime.
为了让你们对毒品泛滥的贫民区惨状有直观感受
To give you a sense of just how bad the inner city was during crack —
我没有刻意关注阴暗面
and I’m not really focusing on the negatives,
但事实如此 我还有另一个故事要分享
but really, there’s another story to tell you there —
如果你认为死亡率是随机的
if you look at the death rates just of random, young black males
美国城里长大的黑人青年中
growing up in the inner city in the United States,
因可卡因导致的死亡率约为1%
the death rates during crack were about one percent.
这相当高
That’s extremely high.
某种意义上说 这是横死 这难以置信
And this is violent death — it’s unbelievable, in some sense.
更进一步 如果把它和伊拉克士兵比较
To put it into perspective: if you compare this to the soldiers in Iraq,
比如现在发生了战争 死亡率是0.5%
for instance, right now fighting the war: 0.5 percent.
毫不夸张地说
So in some very literal way,
在这个国家长大的黑人青年
the young black men who were growing up in this country
就生活在战争之中
were living in a war zone,
与伊拉克战争中的士兵无异
very much in the sense that the soldiers over in Iraq are fighting in a war.
你们可能会问 到底为什么
So why in the world, you might ask,
会有人为了每小时3.5美元
would anybody be willing to stand out on a street corner
而甘愿站在街角兜售毒品
selling drugs for $3.50 an hour,
况且未来4年内的死亡概率高达25%
with a 25 percent chance of dying over the next four years?
为什么这么做
Why would they do that?
我觉得这些可能是答案
And I think there are a couple answers.
首先 他们被历史愚弄了
I think the first one is that they got fooled by history.
在过去 成为黑帮是一种仪式
It used to be the gang was a rite of passage;
年轻人控制着黑帮
that the young people controlled the gang;
而当你老了之后便会脱离黑帮
that as you got older, you dropped out of the gang.
结果是
So what happened was,
那些在正确的时间和地点出现的人
the people who happened to be in the right place at the right time —
恰好在80年代中后期领导了黑帮
the people who happened to be leading the gang in the mid-to-late-’80s —
变得非常非常富有
became very, very wealthy.
所以正确的逻辑是
And so the logical thing to think
他们和其他人一样到一定年纪时
was that they are going to age out of the gang
离开黑帮
like everybody else has,
而下一代来继承这些财富
and the next generation is going to take over and get the wealth.
在我看来 这与互联网热潮极其相似
There are striking similarities, I think, to the Internet boom.
硅谷的开拓者获得大量财富
The first set of people in Silicon Valley got very, very rich.
然后你所有的朋友们会说 “也许我也该干这个”
And then all of my friends said, “Maybe I should go do that, too.”
他们为了虚无缥缈的优先认股权
And they were willing to work very cheap
欣然从事廉价的工作
for stock options that never came.
在某种意义上 事实就是这样的
In some sense, that’s what happened, exactly,
正是我们看到的那类人
to the set of people we were looking at.
他们愿意从最底层做起
They were willing to start at the bottom,
就像是法律事务所的新人
just like, say, a first-year lawyer at a law firm
会欣然从零做起
is willing to start at the bottom,
每周工作80小时 薪酬微薄
work 80-hour weeks for not that much money,
只因为他们觉得有可能成为合伙人
because they think they’re going to make partner.
但规则改变了 他们永远成不了合伙人
But the rules changed, and they never got to make partner.
讲真 20世纪八十年代后期
Indeed, the same people who were running
芝加哥主要黑帮的经营者
all of the major gangs in the late 1980s
如今仍旧经营着黑帮
are still running the major gangs in Chicago today.
他们从未让出丝毫财富
They never passed on any of the wealth,
被每小时3.5美元的职位套牢的人
So everybody got stuck at that $3.50-an-hour job,
下场都很惨
and it turned out to be a disaster.
黑帮的优势在于销售和欺骗
The other thing the gang was very good at was marketing and trickery.
比如 黑帮会做的一件事是
And so for instance, one thing the gang would do is —
黑帮老大会有贴身保镖
the gang leaders would have big entourages,
开豪车 戴金链
and they’d drive fancy cars and have fancy jewelry.
Sudhir和他们混得久了之后
So what Sudhir eventually realized
他终于意识到
as he hung out with them more,
他们没有自己车 他们的车都是租的
is that, really, they didn’t own those cars — they just leased them,
他们负担不起豪车
because they couldn’t afford to own the fancy cars.
他们没有大金链子 只有镀金链子
And they didn’t really have gold jewelry, they had gold-plated jewelry.
这就是真实和虚假现实的对比
It goes back to, you know, the real-real versus the fake-real.
他们挖空心思骗那些年轻人
And really, they did all sorts of things to trick the young people
让他们以为加入黑帮有多好
into thinking what a great deal the gang was going to be.
比如 他们给一个14岁小孩
So for instance, they would give a 14-year-old kid
一叠钞票来控制他
a whole roll of bills to hold.
那个14岁的小孩会告诉他的朋友
That 14-year-old kid would say to his friends,
“看 这些钱是我从黑帮得到的”
“Hey, look at all the money I got in the gang.”
钱花掉的时候才是他的
It wasn’t his money — until he spent it,
这时他就欠了黑帮一屁股债
and then he was in debt to the gang,
他就暂时成了契约佣工
and was sort of an indentured servant for a while.
我会花些时间
So I have a couple minutes.
做一件事 我以为没时间做了
Let me do one last thing I hadn’t thought I’d have time to do,
我们来谈谈我们从黑帮中
which is to talk about what we learned more generally about economics,
学到的更普遍的经济学内容
from the study of the gang.
经济学家惯用专业术语
So, economists tend to talk in technical words.
很遗憾 分析数据时我们的理论常常失效
Often, our theories fail quite miserably when we over the data,
但有趣的是 在这个案例中
but what’s kind of interesting is that in this setting,
结果表明一些在实际经济中
it turned out that some of the economic theories
运用不佳经济学原理
that worked not so well in the real economy
在毒品经济中运用极佳
worked very well in the drug economy,
因为它在某种程度上去掉了资本主义的条条框框
in some sense, because it’s unfettered capitalism.
这是个经济原理
Here’s an economic principle.
这是劳动经济学中的一个基本观点
This is one of the basic ideas in labor economics,
称为“补偿性差别”
called a “compensating differential.”
是说被指派的两项任务的舒适度不同时
It’s the idea that the increment to wages that a worker requires
工作条件差的劳动者
to leave him in different between performing two tasks,
会要求涨工资
one which is more unpleasant than the other.
补偿性差别 所以会认为清洁工的工资应该
Compensating differential — it’s why we think garbagemen might be paid more
比在公园工作的人多
than people who work in parks.
黑帮某个成员的话就说得很清楚
The words of one of the members of the gang, I think, make this clear.
结果表明 回到之前的话题
So it turns out — I’m sort of getting ahead of myself —
结果表明在黑帮里 当发生火拼时
it turns out, in the gang, when there’s a war going on,
他们会付给马仔两倍的钱
they actually pay the foot soldiers twice as much money.
就是这个概念
It’s exactly this concept.
因为他们都不愿意冒险
Because they’re not willing to be at risk.
那个黑帮成员的话表达得很巧妙 他说
And the words of a gang member capture it quite nicely, he says:
“干那破事时候你还在吗” 指火拼
“Would you stand around here when all this shit …” — that means shooting —
“要干那破事的话 不会 对吧
“… if all this shit’s going on? No, right?
所以要我拼命 就得付钱 兄弟”
So if I gonna be asked to put my life on the line, then front me the cash, man.”
我觉得对于正在发生的事
I think the gang member says it much more articulately
他比经济学家说得清楚得多
than the economist, about what’s going on.
[笑声]
(Laughter)
再比如
Here’s another one.
经济学家讲博弈论
Economists talk about game theory,
会说每个双人游戏都有纳什均衡
that every two-person game has a Nash equilibrium.
而这是黑帮成员的翻译
Here’s the translation you get from the gang member.
他们会说他们决定不火拼的原因
They’re talking about the decision of why they don’t go shoot —
黑帮的经营策略表明
One thing that turns out to be a great business tactic in the gang:
如果你在其它黑帮地盘朝天开枪
if you go and just shoot guns in the air in the other gang’s territory —
人们就不敢去那里买毒品
people are afraid to go buy drugs there,
他们会到你负责的街区买
they’re going to come into your neighborhood.
所以他说他们不会这么干
Here’s what he says about why they don’t do that:
“如果我们在其它帮派地盘周围先开枪
“If we start shooting around there, the other gang’s territory,
没人 你懂的 没人进入他们的地盘
nobody, I mean, you dig it, nobody gonna step on their turf.
我们仍要小心翼翼
But we gotta be careful,
因为他们也会在周围开枪 我们都会挂”
’cause they can shoot around here too and then we all fucked.”
[笑声]
(Laughter)
这是同样的原理
So that’s the same concept.
再次强调 有时经济学家也会错
Then again, sometimes economists get it wrong.
通过观察数据发现
One thing we observed in the data is that it looked like —
黑帮老大总在领工资
the gang leader always got paid.
无论经济状况如何 他总能领到工资
No matter how bad it was economically, he always got himself paid.
我们有些有关现金流的理论
We had some theories related to cash flow,
但缺少有关资本市场或相似内容的理论
and lack of access to capital markets, and things like that.
我们去问黑帮成员
Then we asked the gang member,
“为什么你总能领到工资 你的手下就不行”
“Why is it you always get paid and your workers don’t always get paid?”
他的回答是
His response is,
“你让这些想取代你的黑鬼跟着你 对吧
“You got all these niggers below you who want your job, you dig?
如果你拿的少了 他们会瞧不起你”
If you start taking losses, they see you as weak and shit.”
我考虑了一下 说
And I thought about it and said,
“CEO们总给自己开上百万的奖金
“CEOs often pay themselves million-dollar bonuses,
即使公司巨额亏损也是
even when companies are losing a lot of money.
而对经济学家而言
And it never would really occur to an economist
‘瞧不起’根本不是事”
that this idea of ‘weak and shit’ could really be important.”
[笑声]
(Laughter)
也许“瞧不起”是一个重要假设 有待进一步分析
Maybe “weak and shit” is an important hypothesis that needs more analysis.
非常感谢
Thank you very much.
[掌声]
(Applause)

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译制信息
视频概述

黑帮和金拱门有何相似之处?

听录译者

收集自网络

翻译译者

tu3535

审核员

译学馆审核团D

视频来源

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5UGC2nLnaes

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