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费米悖论 - 外星人都去哪儿了?

The Fermi Paradox — Where Are All The Aliens? (1/2)

我们是整个宇宙中唯一的生物吗?
Are we the only living thing in the entire universe?
可观测宇宙直径约为9百亿光年
The observable universe is about 90,000,000,000 light years in diameter.
至少有10亿个星系
There are at least 1,000,000,000 galaxies
每个星系有千亿到万亿个恒星
Each with 100,000,000,000 to 1,000,000,000,000 stars.
最近,我们得知行星也极其平凡
Recently, we’ve learned that planets are very common too
以及,在宇宙中可能存在数万亿个适宜居住的行星
And there are probably trillions and trillions of habitable planets in the universe
这就意味着生命的发展与存在可能性很大,难道不是吗?
Which means there should be lot of opportunities for life to develop and exist, right?
但他们都在哪?
But where is it?
宇宙里不应该充满宇宙飞船吗?
Shouldn’t the universe be teeming with spaceships?
让我们退一步说
Let’s take a step back.
即便在其它星系存在外星人
Even if there are aliens civilisations in other galaxies,
我们也没有途径了解他们
there is no way we’ll ever know about them.
基本上,所有在我们直系的邻近星系之外
Basically, everything outside of our direct galactic neighborhood,
即所谓的本星系群; 全部到达也永不可能
the so called, "Local Group" is pretty much out of our reach forever,
因为宇宙在膨胀
because of the expension of the universe.
就算我们有足够快的飞船
Even if we had really fast spaceships
也会花费夸张到不能计算的时间来到达这些地方
it would literally take billions of years to reach these places,
以及游历那些宇宙中最空旷的区域
travelling throught the emptiest areas in the universe.
因而,让我们来关注银河系
So, let’s focus on the Milky Way.
银河系是我们居住的星系
The Milky Way is our own galaxy,
它由近达4千亿的恒星组成
it consists of up to 4 hundred billions stars.
大概是地球上沙子的上万倍
That’s a lot of stars, roughly 10 thousands for every grain of sand on earth.
银河系中大约有200亿个与太阳类似的恒星
There are about 20 billions sun-like stars in the Milky Way
以及据估计,他们中的五分之一与地球大小类似 且有适宜居住的区域
and estimates suggest that a fivth of them have an earth-sized planet in its habitable zone,
这些区域有适合生命存在的条件
the area with conditions that enable life to exist.
如果这些行星中有0.1%孕育着生命 那么在银河系里就会有一百万个行星存在生命
If only 0.1% of those planets harbored life, there would be 1 million planets with life in the Milky Way.
但等一等,还不止这些
But wait, there’s more.
银河系存在了大概有130亿年 最初,它并没有适宜生命存在的地方
The Milky Way is about 13 billion years old. In the beginning, it would not have been a good place for life
因为爆炸频发 但10至20亿年后 第一批居民诞生了
because things exploded a lot, but after 1 to 2 billion years, the first habitable planets were born.
地球仅40亿年 因而在过去的时间里 其它行星衍生出生命
Earth is only 4 billions years old, so there have probably been trillions of chances for life to develop
也有极其多的机会
on other planets in the past.
只要有一个 高度发达到能进行超文明旅游 我们也早该注意到了
If only a single one of them had developed into a space travelling super civilization we would have noticed by now.
这又是怎么样的文明?
What would such a civilization look like?
有三类
There are 3 categories.
第一类文明是 他们有能力使用自己星球上的全部能源
A Type 1 civilization would be able to access the whole energy available on its planet.
如果你有兴趣知道 我们目前的(卡尔达舍夫指数)为0.73
In case you are wondering, we are currently around 0.73 on the scale
要达到第一类水平 要经过数百年
and we should reach Type 1 sometime in the couple hundred of years.
第二种文明则能治理母恒星的所有能源
Type II would be a civilization capable of harnessing all of the energy of its home star.
这需要在科学上进行天马行空的想象 但理论上可行
This would require some serious science fiction, but it is doable in principle.
例如“戴森球”的概念 想象一个巨大的复杂球体将太阳包裹起来
Concepts like the Dyson sphere, a giant complex surrounding the Sun would be conceivable.
第三种文明能够对整个星系以及其能源进行主要的控制
Type III is the civilization that basically controls its whole galaxy and its energy
这样高度的外星文明 对我们而言就像上帝的存在一样
an alien race this advanced would probably be godlike to us.
但是 我们起初为什么认为 能看到这样的外星文明
But why should we be able to see such an alien civilization in the first place?
如果我们欲为我们的后代建立一个足以承受人类近一千年的飞船
If we were to build generations of spaceships that could sustain a population for around one thousand years
我们光开拓银河系就要花费两百万年
we could colonize the galaxy in 2 million years.
这听起来很长 但请记住 银河系很大
Sounds like a long time, but remember, the Milky Way is huge.
所以 如果开拓整个银河系需要数以百万年
So, if it takes a couple of million years to colonize the entire galaxy
那么就有可能在银河系中存在百万 甚至上亿个孕有生命的行星
and there are possibly millions if not billions of planets that sustain life in the Milky Way
也可能存在其它的生命形式 他们比我们存在的时间长得多 那么
and these other life forms have had considerably more time than we’ve had, then
这些外星人又在哪?
where are all the aliens?
这就是费米悖论 如今还没人能给出正确答案
This is the Fermi Paradox, and nobody has an answer to it
但关于此 我们有一些设想
But we do have some ideas.
让我们来谈谈“过滤器”
Let’s talk about filters.
“过滤器”在这里表示生命存活难以逾越的障碍
A filter in this context represents a barrier that is really hard for life to overcome.
它的恐怖程度也不尽相同
They come in various degrees of scary.
一:我们已经通过了“大过滤器”
One: There are Great Filters and we’ve passed them.
也许复杂生命体通过它比我们想象的要难的多
Maybe it is way harder for complex life to develop than we think.
生命诞生的过程 还没有被完全解释出来
The process allowing life to begin hasn’t yet been completely figured out
以及 这些条件或许极其复杂
and the conditions required may be really complicated.
也许在很久之前 宇宙对生命更加苛刻 物质冷却下来 使复杂的生命体有生存可能性 还是不久前才有的事
Maybe in the past the Universe was way more hostile, and only recently things have cooled down to make complex life possible
这也意味着 我们很独特 不是第一批文明 至少也是第一批中之一
This would also mean that we may be unique, or at least one of the first, if not the first civilization in the entire Universe.
第二:我们还没有通过“大过滤器”
Two: There are Great Filters and they are ahead of us.
这将非常非常的可怕
This one would be really really bad.
也许同我们一样水平的生命体在宇宙中到处都是 但当他们到达某刻时就被摧毁了 这一刻我们还没达到
Maybe life on our level exists everywhere in the Universe but it gets destroyed when it reaches a certain point, a point that lies ahead of us.
例如 未来的恐怖科技 激活后 就立马毁灭了整个行星
For example, awesome future technology exists, but when activated, it destroys the planet.
每个高度文明的遗言可能是
The last words of every advanced civilization would be
一旦我按下开关 新的机器会解决所有问题
"This new device will solve all of our problems once I push this button."
如果这成为事实 那么人类的存在比起起点 更接近终点
If this is true, then we are closer to the end than to the beginning of human existence.
或者 存在着第三种古老文明 它监控着宇宙
Or maybe there is an ancient Type III civilization that monitors the Universe
一旦有文明足够先进 可能超越它时 它就灭了它 只要一丢丢的功夫
and once a civilization is advanced enough it gets eliminated, in an instant.
也许有的隐藏的很多深 很难发现
Maybe there is something out there that it would be better not to discover.
我们想要知道他就更加没门了
There is no way for us to know.
终极猜想:我们独一无二
One final thought: maybe we are alone.
现在 我们还没证据证明有生命与我们共存
Right now, we have no evidence that there’s any life besides us.
啥都没得 宇宙荒凉死寂
Nothing. The Universe appears to be empty and dead.
没人回应我们 也没人呼我们一下
No one sending us messages no one answering our calls.
我们可能是在整个宇宙中绝对孤独的 被困在这个“小湿泥球”上
We may be completely alone, trapped on a tiny moist mud ball in an eternal Universe.
吓傻你了没? 没骗你的话 你反应过激点也没关系
Does that thought scare you? If it does, you are having the correct emotional reaction.
如果我们让这个星球上的生命死去 也许整个星球就再也没有生命了 生命会永远消失
If we let life on this planet die, perhaps there would be no life left in the Universe. Life would be gone, maybe forever.
如果这种假设成立 我们应该到恒星上去探险试试 成为第一个三类文明
If this is the case, we just have to venture to the stars and become the first Type III civilization
薪火相传 在宇宙中传播生命
to keep the delicate flame of life existing and to spread it until the Universe breathes its final breath
直到宇宙寿终正寝
and vanishes into oblivion.
宇宙太美 总要人欣赏
The Universe is too beautiful not to be experienced by someone.
谢谢你对本视频的支持 一个视频的制作要花费至少100个小时
This video was made posible by your support. It takes at least 100 hours to make one of our videos,
感谢你对Patreon的贡献 我们会慢慢的做更多这样的短片
and thanks to your contributions on Patreon we are slowly able to do more and more of them.
如果你想帮助我们或者有更好的个人意见 请关注 Patreon专栏

If you want to help us out and get your own personal bird for example, check out the Patreon page.

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