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费米悖论II - 解决方法

The Fermi Paradox II — Solutions and Ideas – Where Are All The Aliens?

在可见宇宙中,地球上每一粒沙都可能对应一万颗恒星[?]。
There are probably 10,000 stars for every grain of sand on Earth, in the observable universe.
我们知道宇宙中可能有万亿颗行星
We know that there are maybe trillions of planets.
那么外星人在哪呢?
So where are all the aliens?
这就是费米悖论。
This is the Fermi Paradox.
如果你想进一步了解请看第一部分。
If you want to know more about it, watch part one.
现在我们来看看费米悖论可能的解。
Here we look to the possible solutions to the Fermi Paradox.
我们最终会被毁灭,还是有一个光辉的未来等待着我们?
So will we be destroyed or does a glorious future await us?
星际旅行非常难。尽管有可能,但旅行到其他恒星是极大的挑战。
Space travel is hard. Although possible, it’s an enormous challenge to travel to other stars.
大量的材料将会被放入轨道,并被装配。
Massive amounts of materials have to be put into orbit and assembled.
一趟可能长达千年之久的旅行需要有足够多的幸存人口来阻止[人类灭绝?]
A journey of maybe thousands of years needs to be survived by population big enough to stop from a scratch.
并且行星可能没有远观时所看得那么宜居。
And the planet might not be as hospitable as it seems from afar.
建造能在旅途中存活的宇宙飞船已经十分艰难
It was already extremely hard to set up a spaceship that could survive the trip.
且星际入侵恐怕也不可能成功
And interstellar invasion might be impossible to pull off.
并且,考虑一下时间问题,宇宙非常古老。
Also, consider time, the universe is very old.
地球上出现生命至少有36亿年,
On Earth there’s been life for at least 3.6 billion years.
智能人类有大概25万年。
Intelligent human life for about 250,000 years.
但仅仅在大约一世纪的时间里,我们有了远距通迅的技术(应该不是超距)。
But only for about a century have we had the technology to communicate over great distances.
没准有极繁盛的外星帝国横跨数千系统[?]并存在数百万年,
There might have been grand alien empires that stretched across thousands of systems and existed for millions of years
而我们只是错过了他们而已。
and we might just have missed them.
可能有昔日辉煌的废墟正在遥远的世界中腐朽。
There might be grandiose ruins rotting away on distant worlds.
地球上(古往今来)99%的物种都灭绝了。
99% of all species on Earth have died out.
我们可以轻易认为,那早晚也会是我们的命运。
It’s easy to argue that this will be our fate sooner or later.
智能生命可能发展、延伸、灭绝,往复循环。
Intelligent life may develop, spread over a few systems and die off, over and over again.
银河中的众多文明或许从未相见
But galactic civilizations might never meet.
或许宇宙中所有生命都有同样的经历,那就是仰望星空,并怀疑着“其他生命都在哪儿?”
So may be it’s a unifying experience for life in the universe to look at the stars and wonder "Where is everyone?"
但没有理由假设外星人都像我们一样,
But there is no reason to assume aliens are like us,
或我们的逻辑适用于他们。
or that our logic applies to them.
或许只是我们的交流手段太原始过时。
It might just be that our means of communication are extremely primitive and outdated.
想象一下,坐在一个有着摩斯密码发报机的房子里,你不断发送信息但没有人回复,
Imagine sitting in a house with a morse code transmitter, you’d keep sending messages but nobody would answer
你感到十分孤独。可能我们仍然发觉不到智能物种,
and you would feel pretty lonely, may be we’re still undetectable for intelligent species
直到学会正确交流为止都持续这样的行为。
and we’ll remain so until we learn to communicate properly.
甚至,如果我们真遇上了外星人,可能二者相差太大以至于无法进行有意义的对话。
And even if we met aliens we might be too different to be able to communicate with them in a meaningful way.
尽你所能想象一个最聪明的松鼠,
Imagine the smartest squirrel you can,
无论你多么努力,你也不能向它解释我们的社会。
no matter how hard you try, you won’t be able to explain our society to it.
毕竟,从松鼠的观点来看,一棵树就是像它一样的智能生命生存所需的全部。
After all, from the squirrel’s perspective a tree is all that sophisticated intelligence like itself needs to survive.
所以人类砍倒整个森林是疯了,但我们不会因为讨厌松鼠而毁掉森林
So humans cutting down whole forests is madness; but we don’t destroy forests because we hate squirrels.
我们只是想要资源
We just want the resources.
松鼠的愿望和幸存(与否)不在我们考虑范围以内
The squirrel’s wishes and the squirrel’s survival are off no concern to us.
第三类文明需要能源,可能会以类似的方式对待我们
A Type 3 civilization in need of resources may treat us in a similar way.
他们可能只是想蒸发我们的海洋来更容易地收集他们所需的能源。
They might just evaporate our oceans to make collecting whatever they need easier.
外星人中的一个可能会偶然想那么一会儿:“哦,可怜的小猿猴!它们建造的混凝土建筑真的很可爱……哦,好吧,它们现在死了。”
One of the aliens might think for second “Oh, tiny little apes! They built really cute concrete structures, oh well now they’re dead.”
在启动他们的曲速[引擎?]前。
before activating warp speed.
但如果有一个文明离开所在地是为了消灭其他物种,
But if there is a civilization out there that wants to eliminate other species,
这更像是由文化而非经济所引发的动机。
it far more likely that it will be motivated by culture rather than by economics.
无论如何它会更有效地(或善于)使制造完美武器的流程自动化,
And anyway it will be more effective to automate the process by constructing the perfect weapon,
用纳米机器构建一个自复制空间探测器。
a self replicating space probe made from nano-machines.
他们在分子水平上进行难以想象的高速、致命运算,
They operate on molecular level incredibly fast and deadly,
拥有在瞬间攻击、拆解任何东西的力量。
with the power to attack and dismantle anything in an instant.
你只需要给他们四个指令:
You only need to give them four instructions.
一,找到一个有生命存在的行星。
One, fine a planet with life.
二,把行星上任何东西拆解至其基本组成。
Two, disassemble everything on this planet into its component parts.
三,使用能源建造新的空间探测器。
Three, use the resources to build new space probes.
四,重复。
Four, repeat.
如此一个末日机器可以令一个星系在数百万年内始终是一片不毛之地。
A doomsday machine like this could render a galaxy sterile in a few million years.
但是为什么你要飞行数光年去收集资源,或犯下屠杀罪行呢?
But why would you flight light years to gather resources or commit genocide?
光速实际上不怎么快。
The speed of light is actually.. not very fast.
如果有些人能以光速旅行,仍然会耗费10万年来穿越银河一次。
if someone could travel at the speed of light, it will still take 100,000 years to cross the milky way once
你可能会更慢地旅行更多年。
and you’ll probably travel way slower.
在路上可能有比毁灭文明、建造帝国更令人愉快的事情
There might be way more enjoyable things than destroying civilizations and building empires.
一个有趣的概念是俄罗斯套娃脑:
An interesting concept is the Matrioshka Brain.
环绕一颗恒星的一个百万级建筑,
A mega-structure surrounding a star,
一台计算能力超强的计算机(可使整个物种上传意识,并存在于虚拟宇宙中)
a computer of such computing power that an entire species could upload their consciousness and exist in a simulated universe.
有可能,一个个体可以体验一种纯粹的狂喜的来世,而它还没有出生或伤心过。绝妙的生命!
Potentially, one could experience an eternity of pure ecstasies without ever being born or sad, a perfect life.
如果建造在红矮星周围,计算机可以有动力来运行10万亿年。
If built around a red dwarf, this computer could be powered for up to ten trillion years.
如果有这样的选择,谁愿意征服星系或接触其他生命形式?
Who would want to conquer the galaxy or make contact with other life forms, if this were an option?
所有关于费米悖论的解都存在一个问题。
All these solutions to the Fermi Paradox have one problem.
我们不知道技术的边界在哪里。
We don’t know where the borders of technology are.
我们可以逼近极限,或无法靠近。
We could be close to the limit or nowhere near it.
超级技术等待着我们,
And super technology awaits us,
准予我们以不朽,将我们送至其他星系,让我们升至上帝的高度。
granting us immortality, transporting us to other galaxies, elevating us to the level of gods.
有件事我们必须要知道,我们真的一无所知。
One thing we do have to acknowledge is that we really don’t know anything.
人类在其存在期间耗费了超过90%的时间扮演猎人和采集者。
Humans have spent more than 90% of their existence as hunter-gatherers.
500年前我们认为自己是宇宙的中心
500 years ago we thought we were the center of the universe.
200年前停止将人类劳动力作为能量的主要来源。
200 years ago we stopped using human labors as the main source of the energy.
30年前我们因为政治分歧将毁灭性的武器瞄准彼此
30 years ago we had apocalyptic weapons pointed at each other because of political disagreements.
对于银河的时间尺度,我们只是胚胎。
In the galactic time scale we are embryos.
我们从遥远而来,但仍有很长的路要走。
We’ve come far, but still have a long way to go.
在人类中,“我们是宇宙中心”的这种心态仍然强烈。
The mindset that we really are the center of the universe is still strong in humans,
所以我们会很容易对宇宙中的生命提出自大的设想。但在最后,只有一种方法能探明真相,不是吗?
so it’s easy to make arrogant assumptions about life in the universe.But in the end, there’s only one way to find out, right?

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