《TED演讲》 值得传播的思想
I am a capitalist,
我是个资本家
and after a 30-year career in capitalism
在资本界呆了30年
spanning three dozen companies,
前后共持有三十多所公司
generating tens of billions of dollars in market value,
营收总市值为数百亿美元
I’m not just in the top one percent,
从收入上看 我不只是那前百分之一的人
I’m in the top .01 percent of all earners.
我是那挣钱的百分之零点零一
Today, I have come to share the secrets of our success,
今天 我来分享我们成功的秘密
because rich capitalists like me have never been richer.
因为像我一样富裕的资本家从未这么富裕过
So the question is, how do we do it?
那么问题是 我们怎么做到的？
How do we manage to grab
我们是怎样做到每年
an ever-increasing share of the economic pie every year?
都从经济蛋糕中瓜分到更多市场份额的？
Is it that rich people are smarter than we were 30 years ago?
是因为我们这些富人比30年前更聪明？
Is it that we’re working harder than we once did?
还是因为我们比从前更努力了？
Are we taller, better looking?
我们更高了？更帅更美了？
Sadly, no.
遗憾的是 全错
It all comes down to just one thing:
其实要归结于一件事：
economics.
经济学
Because, here’s the dirty secret.
因为有个肮脏的秘密
There was a time in which the economics profession
个别时期 经济是为了公共利益服务的
worked in the public interest for everyone,
面向每一个人
but in the neoliberal era,
但在新自由主义时代
today,
也就是今天
they work only for big corporations
经济就只为大公司
and billionaires,
和亿万富翁服务了
and that is creating a little bit of a problem.
这会产生一些问题
We could choose to enact economic policies
我们可以选择让富人缴更多税
that raise taxes on the rich,
规范有权利的大公司
regulate powerful corporations or raise wages for workers.
和给工人更多报酬的经济政策
We have done it before.
我们之前就是这么做的
But neoliberal economists would warn
但是新自由主义的经济学家们会警告我们
that all of these policies would be a terrible mistake,
以上所有政策都是非常错误的
because raising taxes always kills economic growth,
因为增税将会干扰经济增长
and any form of government regulation
任何形式的政府规范
is inefficient,
都没什么效果
and raising wages always kills jobs.
而且增加工资 岗位就会减少
Well, as a consequence of that thinking,
通过以上思考可知
over the last 30 years, in the USA alone,
在过去30年 仅看美国
the top one percent has grown 21 trillion dollars richer
头部百分之一的人收益增加了21万亿
while the bottom 50 percent
而末尾百分之五十的人
have grown 900 billion dollars poorer,
总收益减少了九千亿
a pattern of widening inequality that has largely repeated itself
这种扩展的不平等模式大量复制
across the world.
蔓延全球
And yet, as middle class families struggle to get by
然而 当中产阶级家庭在努力用约40年来
on wages that have not budged in about 40 years,
都几乎没变的薪酬生活时
neoliberal economists continue to warn that
新自由主义经济学家又警告
the only reasonable response to the painful dislocations of austerity and globalization
紧缩和全球化造成的经济失调定会导致
is even more austerity and globalization.
紧缩和全球化的愈演愈烈
So, what is a society to do?
那么 一个社会能做什么呢？
Well, it’s super clear to me what we need to do.
对我来说 我们需要做什么是一目了然的
We need a new economics.
我们需要一个新的经济学
So, economics has been described as the dismal science,
经济学被称作悲观科学
and for good reason, because as much as it is taught today,
这么说是有原因的 尽管当今经济学被广泛普及
it isn’t a science at all,
尽管它充斥眼花缭乱的计算
in spite of all of the dazzling mathematics.
但它已不再是一门科学了
In fact, a growing number of academics and practitioners
事实上 越来越多的学者和业内人士
have concluded that neoliberal economic theory is dangerously wrong
认为新自由主义理论大错特错
and that today’s growing crises of rising inequality
而如今不断加剧的不平等危机
and growing political instability
和政治的不稳定性
are the direct result of decades of bad economic theory.
就是这个错误经济理论运作数十年的直接结果
What we now know is that the economics that made me so rich
但我们现在知道这个经济学让我这么富裕
isn’t just wrong?
它只是错了吗？
it’s backwards,
它还是时代的倒退
because it turns out
因为事实证明
it isn’t capital that creates economic growth,
不是资本创造经济增长
it’s people;
是人
and it isn’t self-interest that promotes the public good,
不是一己私利在促进公共利益
it’s reciprocity;
是互惠
and it isn’t competition that produces our prosperity,
不是竞争给我们带来繁荣
it’s cooperation.
是合作
What we can now see is that an economics that is neither just nor inclusive
现在我们知道 既不公平也不包容的经济学
can never sustain the high levels of social cooperation
无法支撑让一个现代社会繁荣所必须的
necessary to enable a modern society to thrive.
高水平的社会合作
So where did we go wrong?
那我们错在了哪一步？
Well, it turns out that it’s become painfully obvious
事实证明 有件事越来越显而易见
that the fundamental assumptions that undergird neoliberal economic theory
那就是 支持新自由主义经济理论的基本假设
are just objectively false,
客观上是错的
and so today first I want to take you through some of those mistaken assumptions
那么今天我想先带你们了解其中一些错误的假设
and then after describe where the science suggests prosperity actually comes from.
然后再阐述科学认为财富源自哪里
So, neoliberal economic assumption number one is
新自由主义经济假说第一条
that the market is an efficient equilibrium system,
市场是个有效的均衡系统
which basically means that if one thing in the economy,
这意味着 如果经济中的一样东西
like wages, goes up,
例如薪酬 上升了
another thing in the economy, like jobs, must go down.
经济中的另一样 例如岗位 就一定减少
So for example, in Seattle, where I live,
比如在我住的西雅图
when in 2014 we passed our nation’s first 15 dollar minimum wage,
2014年我们突破了我国15美元的最低薪酬
the neoliberals freaked out over their precious equilibrium.
新自由主义者惊讶于自己视若珍宝的平衡说被推翻
“If you raise the price of labor,” they warned,
他们曾警告：“如果提高劳动力价值
“businesses will purchase less of it.
企业就会少雇人
Thousands of low-wage workers will lose their jobs.
成千的低薪工人会丢掉工作
The restaurants will close.”
餐厅会倒闭”
Except …
除非……
they didn’t.
事实并不会这样
The unemployment rate fell dramatically.
失业率戏剧性地降低了
The restaurant business in Seattle boomed.
西雅图的餐饮业蓬勃发展
Why?
为什么呢？
Because there is no equilibrium.
因为压根就没平衡一说
Because raising wages doesn’t kill jobs, it creates them;
因为增薪不会使工作变少 反而创造了更多岗位
because, for instance,
举个例子
when restaurant owners are suddenly required to pay restaurant workers enough
餐厅老板突然需要向餐厅员工支付足够的薪水
so that now even they can afford to eat in restaurants,
现在甚至员工也在餐厅吃得起饭了
it doesn’t shrink the restaurant business,
因此 那家餐厅生意不会变差
it grows it, obviously.
很明显 还会更好
(Applause)
[掌声]
Thank you.
谢谢
The second assumption is
第二个假说是
that the price of something is always equal to its value,
某样东西的价格总等于它的价值
which basically means that if you earn 50,000 dollars a year
基本意思就是如果你每年赚五万美元
and I earn 50 million dollars a year,
我每年赚五千万
that’s because I produce a thousand times as much value as you.
那定是因为我创造的价值是你的一千倍
Now,
现在
it will not surprise you to learn
假如你是个每年给自己开五千万工资
that this is a very comforting assumption
却给你工人微薄薪水的首席执行官
if you’re a CEO paying yourself 50 million dollars a year
你可能觉得这个非常安慰人的假说
but paying your workers poverty wages.
没什么好令人惊讶的
But please, take it from somebody who has run dozens of businesses:
但对于运营着几十家企业的人来说
this is nonsense.
简直是无稽之谈
People are not paid what they are worth.
人们得到薪水不是因为个人价值
They are paid what they have the power to negotiate,
而是因为他们有协商的能力
and wages’ falling share of GDP
GDP的薪酬比例下降
is not because workers have become less productive
不是因为工人生产力下降
but because employers have become more powerful.
而是因为工人更有权利了
And —
还有……
(Applause)
[掌声]
And by pretending that the giant imbalance in power between capital and labor
假如资本与劳工之间巨大的权利不对等
doesn’t exist,
是不存在的
neoliberal economic theory became essentially
新自由主义理论本质上成为了
a protection racket for the rich.
富人的保护伞
The third assumption, and by far the most pernicious,
第三个假说 是最有害的
is a behavioral model
行为模式说
that describes human beings as something called “homo economicus,”
它把人类称为“经济人”
which basically means that we are all perfectly selfish,
基本意思是我们都是完全自私
perfectly rational and relentlessly self-maximizing.
绝对理性和坚决自我利益最大化的
But just ask yourselves,
但请问问你自己
is it plausible that every single time for your entire life,
你一生中 每次对他人施以善意
when you did something nice for somebody else, all you were doing
都是为了自己利益的最大化
was maximizing your own utility?
这合理吗？
Is it plausible that when a soldier jumps on a grenade to defend fellow soldiers,
当一个士兵为了掩护同伴 跳到一颗手榴弹上
they’re just promoting their narrow self-interest?
只是为了自己的一点儿私利 这合理吗？
If you think that’s nuts,
如果你觉得太不合理了
contrary to any reasonable moral intuition,
简直与所有合理的道德直觉背道而驰
that’s because it is
因为确实如此
and, according to the latest science,
根据最新科学研究
not true.
该假说就是错的
But it is this behavioral model
但这个行为模式说
which is at the cold, cruel heart of neoliberal economics,
体现了新自由主义经济的冷酷残忍
and it is as morally corrosive
它在道德上的腐坏
as it is scientifically wrong
堪比它在科学上的错误
because, if we accept at face value
因为 若我们接受
that humans are fundamentally selfish,
人本质是自私的表象
and then we look around the world
那放眼看下整个世界
at all of the unambiguous prosperity in it,
所有我们亲眼所见的繁荣
then it follows logically,
都遵循它的逻辑
then it must be true by definition,
就是在说
that billions of individual acts of selfishness
亿万自私的个人行为
magically transubstantiate into prosperity and the common good.
神奇地转变成了人类的繁荣与公共利益
If we humans are merely selfish maximizers,
如果人类就是自身利益最大化
then selfishness is the cause of our prosperity.
那自私就是我们繁荣的原因
Under this economic logic,
按这逻辑
greed is good,
贪婪是好事
widening inequality is efficient,
持续扩大的不平等反而是有效的
and the only purpose of the corporation
合作的唯一目的
can be to enrich shareholders,
应该是让股东致富
because to do otherwise would be to slow economic growth
因为不这么做的话经济增长就会减缓
and harm the economy overall.
对整体经济造成伤害
And it is this gospel of selfishness
这假说真是自私的福音
which forms the ideological cornerstone of neoliberal economics,
它形成了新自由主义经济的意识形态奠基石
a way of thinking which has produced economic policies
许多经济政策都以这种思维模式为根基形成
which have enabled me and my rich buddies in the top one percent
也让我们这些在前百分之一的富人
to grab virtually all of the benefits of growth over the last 40 years.
抓住了过去四十年发展带来的全部红利
But,
但是
if instead
试想一下
we accept the latest empirical research, real science,
若我们接受最新的实证研究 真正的科学
which correctly describes human beings as highly cooperative,
它们认为人类是高度合作的
reciprocal
互惠的
and intuitively moral creatures,
天生有道德的生物
then it follows logically
那么逻辑上来说
that it must be cooperation
就是合作
and not selfishness
而非自私
that is the cause of our prosperity,
促使了我们如今的繁荣
and it isn’t our self-interest
不是利己
but rather our inherent reciprocity
天生的互惠性
that is humanity’s economic superpower.
才是人类在经济上的超能力
So at the heart of this new economics
所以新经济学的核心是
is a story about ourselves that grants us permission to be our best selves,
一个允许我们成为最好自己的故事
and, unlike the old economics,
不像旧经济学
this is a story that is virtuous
新经济学这个故事本身是高尚的
and also has the virtue of being true.
还因其真实而高尚
Now,
现在
I want to emphasize that this new economics
我想强调这个新经济学
is not something I have personally imagined or invented.
不是我个人想象或发明的
Its theories and models are being developed and refined
它的理论和模型是在全世界的大学中
in universities around the world
发展和提炼出来的
building on some of the best new research in economics,
它建立在一些经济学
complexity theory, evolutionary theory, psychology,
复杂性理论 进化论 心理学
anthropology and other disciplines.
人类学等等最前端的研究之上
And although this new economics does not yet have its own textbook
尽管这个新经济学还没它自己的教科书
or even a commonly agreed upon name,
甚至统一的叫法都没有
in broad strokes
它只对人类
its explanation of where prosperity comes from goes something like this.
繁荣的原因给出了大概解释
So, market capitalism is an evolutionary system
市场资本主义是个不断进化的系统
in which prosperity emerges
繁荣就浮现于
through a positive feedback loop between increasing amounts of innovation
与日俱增的创新和消费者需求
and increasing amounts of consumer demand.
形成的正循环之中
Innovation is the process by which we solve human problems,
创新是我们在解决人类问题的过程中产生的
consumer demand
消费者需求
is the mechanism through which the market selects for useful innovations,
是让市场筛选出良性创新的机制
and as we solve more problems, we become more prosperous.
我们解决的问题越多就越繁荣
But as we become more prosperous,
但当我们变得更加繁荣
our problems and solutions
随之而来的问题
become more complex,
和对应的解决方法变复杂了
and this increasing technical complexity
这个与日俱增的技术复杂性
requires ever higher levels of social and economic cooperation
需要更高水平的社会和经济合作
in order to produce the more highly specialized products
来产生高度专业化的产品
that define a modern economy.
以阐释现代经济学
Now, the old economics is correct, of course,
当然 旧的经济学没错
that competition plays a crucial role in how markets work,
竞争在市场运作中起到了关键作用
but what it fails to see
但旧经济学忽略了
is that it is largely a competition between highly cooperative groups —
许多合作团体之间的竞争
competition between firms, competition between networks of firms,
公司间的竞争 公司间关系网的竞争
competition between nations —
国家间的竞争
and anyone who knows who has ever run a successful business knows
每个运营着成功公司的人都知道
that building a cooperative team by including the talents of everyone
比起招一堆自私的混蛋
is almost always a better strategy than just a bunch of selfish jerks.
建立一个广纳英才的合作团体 才是更好的策略
So how do we leave neoliberalism behind
那么我们怎样打破新自由主义
and build a more sustainable, more prosperous
建立一个更可持续 更繁荣
and more equitable society?
更公平的社会
The new economics suggests just five rules of thumb.
新经济学给出了五种经验法则
First is that successful economies are not jungles, they’re gardens,
一 成功的经济不是丛林而是花园
which is to say that markets,
也就是说市场
like gardens, must be tended,
就像花园 需要悉心照料
that the market is the greatest social technology
市场是有史以来发明的
ever invented for solving human problems,
最能解决人类问题的社交技术
but unconstrained by social norms or democratic regulation,
但若脱离社会准则和大众规范的限制
markets inevitably create more problems than they solve.
不可避免地 制造的问题会比解决的还多
Climate change,
气候变化
the great financial crisis of 2008
和在2008年世界金融危机
are two easy examples.
就是两个简单的例子
Second, the second rule is
第二个法则是
that inclusion creates economic growth.
包容带动经济增长
So the neoliberal idea
新自由主义经济认为
that inclusion is this fancy luxury to be afforded if and when we have growth
我们需要经济增长时 无暇包容其他人
is both wrong and backwards.
这想法太错误和落后了
The economy is people.
经济就是人
Including more people in more ways
市场经济中
is what causes economic growth in market economies.
尽可能包容更多人 才能促进经济增长
The third principle
第三条法则
is the purpose of the corporation is not merely to enrich shareholders.
合作的目的不只是让股东变富
The greatest grift in contemporary economic life
当代经济环境下最大的骗局就是
is the neoliberal idea that the only purpose of the corporation
新自由主义认为合作的唯一目的
and the only responsibility of executives
和工作的唯一职责
is to enrich themselves and shareholders.
是让自己和股东变有钱
The new economics must and can insist
新经济学坚定地认为
that the purpose of the corporation
合作的目的
is to improve the welfare of all stakeholders:
是让所有利益相关者都获利
customers, workers, community and shareholders alike.
——顾客 工人 团队 还有股东
Rule four:
第四法则：
greed is not good.
贪婪并不好
Being rapacious doesn’t make you a capitalist,
贪婪不会让你成为一名资本家
it makes you a sociopath.
只会让你成为反社会者
(Laughter)
[笑声]
(Applause)
[掌声]
And in an economy as dependent upon cooperation at scale as ours,
在如今这个大规模互相依存合作的经济下
sociopathy is as bad for business as it is for society.
反社会对公司和社会都不好
And fifth and finally,
最后第五条
unlike the laws of physics,
与物理定律不同
the laws of economics are a choice.
经济学定律是一种选择
Now, neoliberal economic theory
新自由主义经济理论
has sold itself to you as unchangeable natural law,
告诉你它是无法改变的自然法则
when in fact it’s social norms and constructed narratives
事实上 它只是基于伪科学之上的
based on pseudoscience.
社会规范和虚构故事
If we truly want a more equitable,
如果我们真的想要一个更公平
more prosperous and more sustainable economy,
更繁荣 更可持续的经济
if we want high-functioning democracies
如果我们想要高度民主的国家
and civil society,
和文明的社会
we must have a new economics.
我们需要一个新的经济学
And here’s the good news:
好消息是：
if we want a new economics,
如果我们想要新的经济
all we have to do is choose to have it.
我们需要做的就是选择它
Thank you.
谢谢
(Applause)
[掌声]
Moderator: So Nick, I’m sure you get this question a lot.
Nick 我想你一定经常听到这个问题
If you’re so unhappy with the economic system,
如果你对当下经济体系如此不满意
why not just give all your money away and join the 99 percent?
为啥不把你的钱都捐了 加入剩下的百分之九十九
Nick Hanauer: Yeah, no, yes, right.
嗯 好 行吧
You get that a lot. You get that a lot.
大家常常听到
“If you care so much about taxes, why don’t you pay more,
“你那么关心税收 那你自己多付点税吧”
and if you care so much about wages, why don’t you pay more?”
“你这么关心薪酬 你多出点呗”
And I could do that.
我的确能这么做
The problem is,
问题是
it doesn’t make that much difference,
这无法对整个经济环境带来改变
and I have discovered a strategy
我发现了一个
that works literally a hundred thousand times better —
比这个好十万倍的策略
Moderator: OK.
嗯哼
NH: which is to use my money to build narratives and to pass laws
用我的钱去创造故事 去影响法律
that will require all the other rich people
让更多富人多缴税
to pay taxes and pay their workers better.
多付薪水给工人
(Applause)
[掌声]
And so, for example,
比如
the 15-dollar minimum wage that we cooked up
对15美元最小薪酬的突破
has now affected 30 million workers.
已影响了三千万工人
So that works better.
所以这个方法更好
Moderator: That’s great.
挺好
If you change your mind, we’ll find some takers for you.
如果你换种思维方式 可能会有更多支持者
NH: OK. Thank you. Moderator: Thank you very much.
– 谢谢 – 十分感谢