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IBM沃森

The Computer That Could Be Smarter Than Us [IBM Watson]

您正在收看的是冷流科技
you’re watching ColdFusion TV
给观众的一则提示
a note to the viewer
我通常不会说这句话 但是你必须注意生产的全过程
I don’t usually say this but it’s imperative that you pay attention to the entirely of this production
你将要看到的很可能是计算机的未来 将来它有可能会直接影响到你
what you’re about to see may very well be the future of computing and may affect you directly in the future
话虽这么说
that being said
但请欣赏整个生产过程
please enjoy the production
序言:(文化的发展)
Prelude:(The Acceleration of Civilisation)
自人类文明开始之后
since the dawn of our own civilization
人类一直在推动一些事物的发展
humans have been pushing towards something
我们一直在创造一些工具 使我们的生活变得更简单
we’ve continuously been creating tools to make our lives easier
能帮助我们
tools to help us build
在时代这个环境中建立生存和发展
survive and thrive within the circumstances of the age
还建立一些诸如语言
tools such as language
数学和科学类的工具
mathematics and science
帮助我们建立早期的社会
helped build early society
当然
and of course
有时贪婪和爱的力量
sometimes greed and the love of power
确实阻碍了这一概念的发展
did get in the way of this concept
但是我们从来没有停止过创造
but the creation of new tools
新的工具
never stopped
二十世纪的第一次世界大战过后
directly after the Great War of the 20th of century
社会出现了前所未有的繁荣
we saw unparalleled prosperity
发生了更多积极的变化 这是之前从未有过的
and more positive changes to society than ever before
几十年后 真正改变世界的工具出现了
and a few decades later came the tool that truly changed the world
那就是微型集成电路片
the microchip
工业革命通过增强人类体质而扩大了人类的生理能力
as the Industrial Revolution expanded human ability in a physical sense by amplifying human strength
而微型集成电路片
the microchip
则增强了人类的大脑思考能力
revolutionized and amplified the power of the human brain
于是科技发展速度达到一个全新的水平
we then saw the pace of technology increase at a brand new level
即使是在充满矛盾的几十年
even during the decades of conflict
我们依旧迎来了微型集成电路片的应用软件快速发展的
a new age of rapidly evolving applications for the microchip
新时代
came to fruition
从此之后
after this
互联网将人类所有的信息都统计在一个地方 震惊了全世界
the Internet shocked the world and consolidated all of humanity’s information in one place
所有的历史
all of history
思想
thoughts
观点
and ideas
都集中到了一起
were put together
外加一个动态体验 这种体验的特征便是人与人之间
and coupled with a dynamic experience featuring real- time interaction between individuals
社会团体之间
communities
甚至是政治人物之间的实时互动
and even political figures
现在我们生活在一个与众不同时代
currently we live in a time like no other
我们也都很了解这样的时代
and we all know it
但是互联网过后又是什么呢?
but what tool is next after the internet
下一个
what is the next
改变游戏规则的技术又是什么呢?
game changing type of technology
现在
Present day
已经是2015年了
as we fast approached the middle of the 2010s
很明显 我们已经有足够的新兴技术
it’s clear that we’ve had plenty of new emerging technologies
3D印刷厂
such advances have seen 3D printing houses
食品三维打印机等都取得了进展
food
最新的 也可能是最令人惊奇的
and most recently and probably most surprising
是3D印制的人体器官
3D printed human body organs
除了这些 我们还在没有美联储的干预下
in addition to this we’ve seen a type of legitimate
生产出一种
decentralized currency
合法的分散性货币
without a federal reserve to tainted
即cryptocurrency
cryptocurrency
我们也看到超轻型无人机的崛起
we’ve also seen the rise of the ultralight drone
这是一种民用的监视软件
is applications spent from surveillance to civilian uses
在智能手机的帮助下
with the aid of smartphone
无人机能够展现令人难以置信的特技 十年前这种特技只停留在人们的想象中
drone can preform incredible feats and imaginable to the common consumer just a decade ago
这还不够 我们又在谷歌引擎的帮助下
and to top it off we have the rather dextrous robots
引进了灵敏的机器人
recently brought under Google’s wing
但是如果我告诉你 这些力量就代表着未来
but what if I told you that all this power in comparison to the implications of the next
的技术浪潮
wave of technology
你可能会问为什么
and why is that you might ask
好吧
well
这种未来的技术
this next technology
都是
was designed
模仿人的大脑
to operate
来工作的
like the human brain
也就是推理机
The Reasoning Computer
接下来我会以一个问题为开端来向你介绍
let me bring this to you in the former of a question
如果有一种人工智能机器非常强大
what if there was an artificial intelligence machine so powerful
强大到能够搜集到任何信息
that it could take any information
并且能快速地了解与信息相关的一切
and quickly learn everything that it’s to know about that information
然后回答你的问题
and then give you relevant answers to naturally asked questions
而这些问题的答案都是人工智能机器经过推理得出的 那么会出现设什么情况呢?
backed
换句话说
by reasoning in other words
因为人工智能机器有很强的学习能力
extremely advanced machine learning that
所以它能够推理
results in reasoning
如果这台机器
what if this machine
添加了各种功能 诸如金融
could add a finance
科学研究
scientific research
医疗保健
healthcare
提供商业解决办法
provide business solutions
改善食品工业
revolutionize the food industry
等等 同样也会出现什么情况呢?
and much more
而这正是我今天要谈论的
so what am I talking about exactly here
欢迎来到IBM沃森的世界
welcome to the world of IBM Watson
那么 什么是IBM沃森呢?
so what is it
沃森的核心是一台超级计算机
Watson at its core is a super computer
但其本质却是软件
but the genius is really in the software
它是由IBM一手打造的
it was hand- built by IBM
它具有云计算的功能 简单地说
and has cloud computing in mind in a nutshell
是一种最前沿的的人工智能
is the cutting edge of artificial intelligence
之前人们就见识过沃森的顶尖水平
many levels above anything was seen before
所以 你可能会想
so you might be thinking
这与谷歌(或者现在的谷歌)有什么区别
how is there any different to Google or Google now
接下来请集中注意力
will please pay close attention here
因为你的探索将开始于此
because this is where your discovery begins
强调人工智能的重大意义的最好方式
best way to highlight the massive implications of this artificial intelligence
就是以自己为例
is to show you’re a demo
我希望能特别注意系统所采取的一些步骤
I want you to take particular note of the steps that the system is taking
Bader就是正在建立的原型系统之一
so one of the prototype systems that were building is something we call that the Bader
我们可以
we give it
对它展开自由的想象
a freewheeling
把它看作是
understanding
像Wikipedia那样的
of
大规模信息体制
large bodies of information like Wikipedia
我们要求电脑在没有人干预的情况下
and we ask the computer with no human intervention
构建
construct
我们提交给它的
arguments
任何事物的
pro and con
辩论
on any subject we throw at it
而结果就是
and the result of that
我现在所呈现给你们的
is what I’d like to show in the demonstration now
因为我们可以选择任意一个主题
so as I said we could throw any subject at it
我就在这几个中选一个 就第一个吧 接下来我们就会
I’ve chosen some here let’s just pick the first one so it will now
在所有的相关文献中搜索
look for all in all the literature
并像电脑一样试图理解
and try to understand as a computer
关于暴力视频游戏的
what’s a pro and what’s a con
正方观点
for
和反方观点
violent video games
我们就选第一个吧
let’s roll the first one
浏览大约四百万份Wikipedia的文章
scanned approximately four million Wikipedia articles
从中选出10份与之相关的文章
returning 10 most relevant articles
阅读3千个句子和排名前十的
scanned all three thousand sentences and top 10
文章
articles
寻找含有候选人观点的
detected sentences which
句子
contain candidate claims
确定候选人言论的界限
identified borders of candidate claims
评测候选人观点的双面性
assess pro and con polarity of candidate claims
根据最受欢迎的预测 构建示范演讲
constructed demo speech with top claim predictions
然后准备发表
ready to deliver
现在你已经选择了话题
you have selected the topic
应禁止向未成年人出售暴力视频游戏
the sale of violent video games to minors should be banned
我将提出以下观点来支持这一话题
I would like to raise the following points in support of the topic
未成年人接触暴力游戏后其生理反应
exposure to violent video games results in inceased physiological arousal
好斗思想
aggression related
也会增加 社会行为
thoughts and feelings as well as decreased
会减少
for social behavior
此外
in addition
这些暴力游戏里的词会引发未成年人在现实生活中的犯罪
these violent games are lyrics actually caused adolescents to commit acts of real- life aggression
最终
finally
暴力视频游戏会增强儿童的好斗心理
violent video games can increase children’s aggression
另一方面
on the other hand
我想提出一些
I would like to note the following claims
反方观点
that oppose the topic
视频游戏中的暴力并不一定
violence in video games is not casually
会激发好斗心理
linked with aggressive tendencies
此外
in addition
大多数玩暴力游戏的儿童都没有出现问题
most children who play violent games do not have problems
最终
finally
视频游戏是未成年男孩正常的社交活动
video game play is part of an adolescent boy normal social setting
你想讨论另一个话题吗?
would you like to discuss another topic
那么
so
正如你所看到的
as you can see

uh
如果你能走到最终环节
if we can go to the final chart
这次还是
again
在没有人类干涉的情况下
completely unaided by humans
这个系统浏览了
the system went though
所有的知识 再进行推理
all of this knowledge and constructed and reason
然后自己编码
will then code on its own
现在思考一下这一意味着什么
now think about what this means
它不再是人与机器之间的游戏
it’s no longer a game man versus machine
而是人类与机器共同推理的过程
it’s man and machine reasoning together
我认为这是计算机的未来
I believe this is the future of computing
谢谢
Thank you
刚才的展示非常棒 但那只是开始
so that demonstration was pretty cool but it’s just a beginning
IBM沃森最令人不可置信的
the thing that’s most incredible about IBM Watson
就是在没有网络的环境下
is what it can do
所能干的事情
without the internet
比如你可能会问
like what you may ask
IBM能在没有帮助
how about beating two jeopardy game show champions
没有网的情况下
Watson has no help
打败jeopardy show的冠军吗?
no internet
主持人在相同的时间
the computer was asked questions in the same way as the guests
以相同的方式像提问嘉宾一样提问计算机
and the same time as the guests
—你说对了—什么是小提琴—什么是教会女士
-you’re right-what is violin
-who is the church lady
—对的 沃森
-yes, Watson
—什么是发作性睡病
-what is narcolepsy
—你又对了 你赢了36.681美元
-you’re right and with that you move the thirty- six thousand six hundred and eighty- one dollars
Brad Rutter和Waiter 一个是7900美元 一个是7300美元 一共是
Brad Rutter and Waiter hello seventy thousand nine hundred and seventy- three and a two- day total of seventy- seven thousand one hundred and forty- seven
我本来以为这样的技术只会出现在若干年之后 但现在它已经出现了
I would have thought the technology like this was years away but it’s here now
为了证实这一点 我的自尊心受到了一些搭理
I have the bruised ego to prove it
我过去有过很多不同的经历 都特别棒
my past different experiences have been great
但是在那些经历过后 我仍然没有意识到
but they weren’t really waiting with this kind of
科技哲学的重要性
technical philosophical importance
我觉得今天我们所看到的都是很重要的
I think we saw something important today
这是三年前的
now it was three years ago
今天这个系统改善了很多
the system is much better today
因此 2013年2月
so much so that in February 2013
IBM公司宣布沃森的第一个软件系统应用软件
IBM announced that Watson’s first software system application
将会用于凯特琳癌症治疗中心
will be for management decisions in lung cancer treatment
的癌症治疗过程
at Kettering Cancer Center
据显示 治疗方案一成功率为95%
it has showed that treatment one has a 95% confidence
而治疗方案二只有方案一的一半
of being effective while the treatment two is only half that
这很模棱两可 所以你需要沃森
and this is so obscure that you would have needed Watson
来进行治疗
for the diagnosis
或者
and treatment or
我们不只是想出这种治疗方法 事实上 这个新的
we are not just come up with this treatment in fact this is such a new
关于突变的发现 也是一种相对新的药物
discovery of this particular mutation and it’s a relatively new drug as well
所以
that
我的猜测是
my guess is that
许多肿瘤学家可能无法做出迅速的反应
many oncologist may not be quite up to speed yet
而沃森很精准
Watson has been so accurate
所以 今天这个行业中使用沃森的90%的护士
that today 90% of nurses in the field who use Watson
都遵循它的引导
now follow its guidance
对于这种性质的新型技术的第一个应用程序来说
for a first application of a new type of technology of this nature
这种成功是闻所未闻的
this success is almost unheard of
近期的这个工程的一切都让人有点出乎意料
all of this recent progress was somewhat unexpected
但随着时间的流逝 沃森作为一种工具 仅仅只能起到促进应用程序和权力的作用
but Watson as a tool will only grow an application and power as time passes
我们先来看看沃森的另一个应用程序吧
let’s take a look at one more application of Watson before we break down and see what this all means
在此之后 我们就来仔细地进行分析 看看这都意味着什么以及未来
and how this technology might be relevant to you
这种技术与你有怎样的联系
in the future
花旗集团更多的贸易商
more from traders at Citigroup
花旗银行在第一次涉足金融服务时就雇佣了沃森
the bank hired Watson for its first foray into financial services
那么 这家大型银行期望从这些琐事中得到什么
so what is the big bank expect to get from the trivia with
《多伦多星报》称 花旗银行将利用沃森
The Toronto star says the bank will use Watson to
来获取顾客的一切信息
take in everything from information about customers
文件 银行活动和公司季度报告
profiles and banking activities to corporate quarterly reports
分析报告 规则
analyst reports regulations
信用评级 政府证券
credit ratings government securities
填料以及机构
fillings and the institutions’s
自己的规则
own rules
它同时也能够从网络新闻报告
it could also gather intelligence from online news reports
博客
blogs
Twitter feeds上搜集情报
and Twitter feeds
通过沃森可以得到获取很多东西
there’s a lot to take in
但是最重要的是 只要你愿意提供信息和学习材料
but the bottom line is that Watson is showing some very real promise of giving accurate answers to
沃森都会提供准确的答案 前景非常乐观
anything if you give information or study material if you will
但总的来说 一些人还是有些担忧
all this being said there is a touch of concern among some
沃森能够以专业的角度给出合理的答案 而这些专业的知道需要多年的行业经验
Watson displays ability to give reasonable answers in the fields of expertise that would otherwise require years of industry experience
虽然今天沃森仍然是一个工具和指导
although today Watson is still a tool and a guide
一个很明显的问题是
the obvious question is
沃森能够取代相同行业内的佼佼者吗
could Watson replace expensive employees that are currently within the same area of operation
虽然很多人说自1970年微芯片问世之后 相同的事情可能会发生
even though many said the same thing would happen with the microchip in the 1970s
但所有人都抱着怀疑的态度
nobody can know this for sure
如果这份工作绝大部分取决于研究和推理
if the job depends mostly on research and reasoning
那么沃森就有可能取代人类
it could very well be a possibility
沃森背后的技术支持很令人激动 因为
the technology behind Watson is very exciting due to the fact that
2013年11月
in November 2013
IBM公司宣称将沃森对外公开 每一个软件开发供应商都能够使用沃森
IBM announced that it will make Watson available to software developer providers
这样有了沃森
this enables them to build apps and services that are embeded
他们就能够构建嵌入式应用程序和服务
with Watson’s capabilities
总之 沃森可能会变成一个移动设备
in short Watson may be coming to a mobile device new year
当然也会运用云设备
using the cloud of course
事实上 它已经在一位医疗专家的iPad上得到应用 视频开始的时候提到过这位专家
and in fact it’s already on iPad for the medical professionals mentioned earlier in the video
就在上一期的ColdFusion电视节目上
in the previous episode of ColdFusion TV
我们了解了谷歌是如何通过提供易于查询信息的服务来逐步扩大的
we’ve seen just how large Google became by providing the service of easy to find information
想象一下为所有的信息
imaging providing the service of accurate answers to
都提供准确答案的
all
服务
information
这些影响是一个非常有力的工具
the implications are such a powerful tool
同时也令人兴奋不已
for both exciting
更有信心
and confronting
去面对
at the same time
但是我们能从中带走什么呢
but what can we take away from all this
看看这幅大一点的图片
looking at the wider picture
虽然沃森比一个人聪明
although Watson is smarter than a human
但不会聪明多少
it’s not necessarily more intelligent
毕竟是人类创造了沃森
after all humans build Watson in the first place
那么
so
这是今天地球上最伟大的人工智能的最新消息
that’s all the latest information on the greatest artificial intelligence to exist on this planet today
沃森可能是迄今为止人们创造的最先进的工具
Watson may just be the most advanced tool with created yet
未来它能为社会带来哪些改变
let’s see what changes that causes within society
让我们拭目以待
in the future
嘿 我是这个视频当然也是这个频道的创造者
hey, guys this’s go go here the creator of that video and of course this channel
我想感谢你们观看了整个视频 当你坐下来思考
I just want to thank you guys watching the whole way through and it’s just really insane when you sit down and think about
今天出现的所有技术时 这真的是疯了
all this technology that’s happening in our world today
很少会有人知道这种感觉
and just have little people actually really know that so
好吧 从技术的角度来讲
yes it’s going to be a really interesting
当这一切变得成熟时
time when all this comes into fruition actually matures
一个有趣的时代就会到来
in a technological sense
无论如何 感谢你们的观看
anyway I just want to thank you guys for watching and
如果你真的喜欢它 请为它点个赞
if you did enjoy that please give it a thumb up and
并且订阅它
subscribe it if you like it
如果你对这种技术感兴趣 就把它分享给你的朋友
and share it to friends if you think it’ll be interested in this kind of technology
我觉得大多数人都会看看当今时代到底发生了什么
which I think most people should actually take a look at what’s happening today
但是
but
是的 这对我来说已经足够了
yeah, I think that’s enough for me so..
除非下一次能有一项更好的技术出现
until next time have a good one
过得开心 下期节目见
enjoy yourselves and I’ll catch you again soon for the next video cheers
这里是ColdFusion电视节目
ColdFusion
一种新的思维方式
it’s new thinking

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视频来源

https://www.youtube.com/watch?annotation_id=annotation_2920346889&feature=iv&src_vid=Iie8U5rngwA&v=yXcDir9Y9CI

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