Have you ever been asked by your Chinese friend,
你有没有被中国朋友问过
“What is your zodiac sign?”
“你的生肖是什么？”
Don’t think they are making small talk.
不要以为他们只是寒暄
If you say, “I’m a Monkey,”
如果你说：“我属猴”
they immediately know
他们马上
you are either 24, 36, 48 or 60 years old.
就可以知道你多大年纪。
(Laughter)
（笑声）
Asking a zodiac sign is a polite way of asking your age.
问生肖是问年龄的礼貌方式
By revealing your zodiac sign, you are also being evaluated.
知道了你的生肖 还可以对你进行评估。
Judgments are being made about your fortune or misfortune,
可以预测你幸运与否
your personality, career prospects
你的性格，职业前景
and how you will do in a given year.
接下来一年的运势走向。
If you share you and your partner’s animal signs,
如果你分享了你和爱人的生肖
they will paint a picture in their mind about your private life.
甚至可以想象你的私人生活。
Maybe you don’t believe in the Chinese zodiac.
也许你不相信中国的生肖，
As a quarter of the world population is influenced by it,
但是鉴于 全球四分之一的人受它的影响
you’d be wise to do something about that.
你最好还是知道一些相关的知识。
So what is the Chinese zodiac, exactly?
到底什么是中国的生肖呢？
Most Westerners think of Greco-Roman zodiac,
大多数西方人听说过 希腊罗马12星座
the signs divided into 12 months.
这些星座把一年分成12个月。
The Chinese zodiac is different.
中国生肖不同。
It’s a 12-year cycle labeled with animals,
中国生肖是以动物命名的 一个12年的循环
starting with a Rat and ending with a Pig,
以鼠开始，以猪结尾。
and has no association with constellations.
它们与星座没有任何联系。
For example, if you were born in 1975, you are a Rabbit.
比如你出生在1975年， 你就属兔。
Can you see your zodiac sign there?
大家可以看到自己的生肖么？
Our Chinese ancestors constructed a very complicated theoretical framework
中国的老祖先以阴阳， 五行和12生肖为基础
based on yin and yang, the five elements and the 12 zodiac animals.
建立了一套非常复杂的理论框架。
Over thousands of years,
千百年来
this popular culture has affected people’s major decisions,
这种流行文化 影响着人们的大部分决定
such as naming, marriage, giving birth and attitude towards each other.
比如起名，婚介，生产 甚至对彼此的态度。
And some of the implications are quite amazing.
其中一些涵义令人称奇。
The Chinese believe certain animals get on better than the others.
中国人相信某些生肖与 其它生肖比较好相处。
So parents choose specific years to give birth to babies,
所以夫妇选择特定的年份生孩子
because they believe the team effort by the right combination of animals
因为他们相信特定的生肖组合
can give prosperity to families.
会让家族更加繁荣
We even refer to the zodiac when entering into romantic relations.
甚至谈恋爱的时候也会参考生肖。
I’m a Pig; I should have perfect romance with Tigers, Goats and Rabbits.
我属猪，我最好的恋爱对象是 属虎，羊和兔的人。
Chinese people believe some animals are natural enemies.
中国人相信有些生肖天生相克。
As a Pig, I need to be careful with a Snake.
对于属猪的人来说 我要小心属蛇的人。
Raise your hand if you are a Snake.
各位属蛇的人请举手。
Let’s have a chat later.
我一会有话跟你们说。
(Laughter)
（笑声）
We believe some animals are luckier than the others,
我们相信有些生肖更加好运
such as the Dragon.
比如生肖龙。
Unlike the Western tradition,
不同于西方传统
the Chinese Dragon is a symbol for power, strength and wealth.
中国龙是权力，力量和财富的象征。
It’s everyone’s dream to have a Dragon baby.
每个人都希望有一个龙宝宝。
Jack Ma’s parents must have been very proud.
马云的父母就非常自豪。
And they are not the only ones.
这种现象非常普遍。
In 2012, the Year of the Dragon,
2012年是龙年，
the birthrate in China, Hong Kong and Taiwan
中国香港和台湾的婴儿出生率
increased by five percent.
提高了5%。
That means another one million more babies.
比正常多出了一百万新生儿。
With a traditional preference to baby boys,
加之生男孩的倾向明显，
the boy-girl ratio that year was 120 to 100.
那年的男女比例为120:100。
When those Dragon boys grow up,
当属龙的男孩长大，
they will face much more severe competition in love and job markets.
他们会面临更加激烈的 婚姻和职场挑战。
According to the BBC and the Chinese government’s press release,
根据BBC和中国政府的官方消息
January 2015 saw a peak of Cesarean sections.
2015年1月迎来了剖腹产的高潮
Why?
为什么？
That was the last month for the Year of the Horse.
因为这是马年的最后一个月。
It’s not because they like horses so much,
并不是大家喜欢生肖马
it’s because they try to avoid having unlucky Goat babies.
而是大家尽量避免 不祥的属羊的孩子。
(Laughter)
（笑声）
If you are a Goat, please don’t feel bad.
如果你属羊，也不要伤心
Those are Goat babies.
这些都是属羊的人。
They don’t look like losers to me.
我可不觉得他们是失败者。
(Laughter)
（笑声）
Tiger is another undesirable animal,
还有一个不受欢迎的生肖是虎
due to its volatile temperament.
也许和它的喜怒无常有关。
Many Chinese regions saw a sharp decline of birthrate
在不受欢迎生肖的年份 中国很多地区的婴儿出生率
during those years.
都有明显下降。
Perhaps one should consider zodiac in reverse,
也许对于生肖我们应该逆向思维
as those Tiger and Goat babies will face much less competition.
因为虎宝宝和羊宝宝 将会面临最少的竞争
Maybe they are the lucky ones.
也许他们才是最幸运的。
I went through the Forbes top 300 richest people in the world,
我调查了世界福布斯财富榜 前300位的生肖
and it’s interesting to see
有趣的是
the most undesirable two animals, the Goat and Tiger,
属最不受欢迎的羊和虎的人数
are at the top of the chart,
反而排在前两位
even higher than the Dragon.
甚至高于龙。
So maybe we should consider,
也许我们应该考虑
maybe it’s much better to have less competition.
减轻竞争压力才是更好的选择。
One last but interesting point:
最后一个有趣的事情是
many Chinese people make their investment decisions
很多中国人依据生肖图作为索引
based on the zodiac sign index.
进行投资。
Although the belief and tradition of the zodiac sign
尽管生肖的信仰和传统
has been over thousands of years,
由来已久，
the trend of using it in making major decisions
使用生肖作重大决定的风潮
did not really happen until the past few decades.
近几十年才开始出现。
Our ancestors were very busy to survive from poverty, drought,
我们的祖先忙于战胜贫穷，干旱
famine, riot, disease and civil war.
饥荒，动乱，疾病甚至国内战争。
And finally, Chinese people have the time, wealth and technology
终于中国人有时间，有财富和科技
to create an ideal life they’ve always wanted.
可以过上他们梦想中的生活。
The collective decision made by 1.3 billion people
13亿人做出的集体决定
has caused the fluctuation in economics and demand on everything,
足以在经济上掀起巨大的波澜 足以改变很多事情的走向
from health care and education to property and consumer goods.
无论是医疗还是教育领域 无论是财产还是消费品方面。
As China plays such an important role in the global economy and geopolitics,
随着中国在全球经济和地域政治中 扮演越来越重要的角色，
the decisions made based on the zodiac and other Chinese traditions
基于生肖 和其他中国传统而作出的决定
end up impacting everyone around the world.
将会最终影响世界上的每一个人。
Are there any Monkeys here?
在座的有属猴的吗？
2016 is the Year of the Monkey.
2016年是猴年
Monkeys are clever, curious, creative and mischievous.
猴意味着聪明，好奇 创造力和顽皮。
Thank you.
谢谢。
(Applause)
（掌声）