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预测经济衰退的图表

The chart that predicts recessions

in 1980, th US economy went into a recession.
1980年 美国爆发了一场经济危机
A crisis of confidence.
这是关乎信心的危机
The automobile production dropped 37.5%
汽车产量下降了37.5%
Wall Street reacted very badly.
华尔街也深受其害
But the recession actually could’ve been predicted
但其实这次经济衰退是可预料的
If you were looking at a very specific type of line.
如果你有留意到一条特殊的线
You see, normally, this line points slightly upward
通常 这条线是略微上升趋势的
like here, in September 1977.
就像1977年9月这条
But about a year later, it started pointing the other way, just slightly!
但差不多一年后 这条线开始稍微往下走了
And then not long after that…
不久以后……
Boom…The 1980 recession.
“嘭” 1980年经济危机
It happened again a few months later.
几个月后再次发生同样的情况
The line curved downward.
这条线再次往下走
Then, boom, another recession.
“嘭” 另一次经济危机
And it happened again in 1988.
1988年再次发生
Again in 2000.
2000年又一次发生
And again in the mid-2000s.
21世纪10年代中再次发生
This line is called the “yield curve.”
这条线叫做“收益率曲线”
It’s predicted every recession in the past half-century.
它预见了上半个世纪所有的经济危机
And that’s why some experts freaked out when this happened …
所以专家们在这条线再次出现向下趋势时吓坏了
“A recession warning.”
经济危机警告——
“Inverted yield curve”
倒挂收益率曲线
So. What the hell is this line?
所以 这条线到底表示什么?
It all starts with a US treasury bond.
这要从美国国债讲起
A bond is basically an agreement saying: If you lend the federal government, say, a hundred dollars
国债就是你借钱给联邦政府 例如借出一百块
They’ll pay you interest while they hold on to your money
当你持有国债时 政府付给你利息
until the date they agreed to pay you back …
直到政府到期赎回
And the longer you let the government keep your money, the higher the interest rate.
你购买周期越长的国债利息越高
So you get more money.
你就会得到更多的收益
Next you need to understand that most people don’t buy bonds from the government.
另外需要了解的是大部分人不会直接向政府购买国债
They buy and sell them from each other, in the secondary market.
他们会在二级市场买卖
And the prices change, based on how much demand there is for a bond.
价格会根据债券需求而波动
This basically means that the amount of profit you can make on each bond changes every day.
这代表你购买的债券收益每天都会浮动
So the basic rule holds.
所以同样道理
If you let the government keep your money longer
如果你购买周期更长的债券
you’ll yield more money
你获得的收益更高
Trace these bars on any given day, and you get a curved line, showing the yields of different bonds
连接这几个点会得到一条曲线 表示不同债券的收益
or what people call “the yield curve.”
这就是“收益率曲线”
And normally, it points upward.
通常 这条线是上升趋势
Now here’s where it gets even more complicated.
现在 我们来说说更复杂的
Let’s say you’re an investor
假设你是一位投资者
and you have a hunch that an economic downturn is coming in the near future.
你察觉到近期会有一次经济下行
If your hunch is correct
如果你相信自己的判断
that means that if you buy a two-year bond you might get your money back in a bad economy
你买入两年债券的话,赎回时正好是经济低谷
and there might not be anything good to re-invest in.
到时候市场上可能不会有更好的投资产品
That makes a two-year bond a lot less attractive to you.
这就使两年期债券的吸引力大幅减低了
And if lots of other people think this way,
如果大多数人都这么认为
then the demand for two-year bonds plummets.
两年期债券的需求就会大幅减少
So they start selling for cheaper.
那两年期债券的价格就会降低
But because the two-year bond now costs less
但同样因为两年期债券价格降低了
it yields a better return, relative to that low cost.
购买它的收益会增加
And at the same time, investors who think a downturn is coming might think
同时 认为经济下行即将到来的投资者会觉得
I’d rather invest in a 10-year bond that pays out way later
投资十年期债券是一个更好的选择
when I think the economic downturn will be over.
因为经济下行即将到来
So that bond gets more popular.
十年期债券会更受欢迎
But it also gets more expensive.
但同时也会变得更贵
So investors start yielding less money.
所以投资者收益变少了
And if enough investors are acting on this expectation
如果很多投资者都这么认为
the yield on a long-term bond, which is almost always higher than on a short-term bond
一般比短期债券收益更高的长期债券
can actually dip lower.
收益变得比短期债券更低
And if you draw that yield curve
你把收益率曲线画出来
you can see it goes in the other direction. It inverts.
你会看到曲线倒挂变成下降趋势了
In other words, when this chart looks like this
换句话说,当你看到这张图是这样的
it means investors think an economic downturn is probably coming in the near future
代表投资者认为很快会经济下行
And that’s what’s happening now.
这就是现在正在发生的
So, is a recession coming?
所以 经济衰退要来了吗?
Not necessarily.
不一定
But when we read the sign of the chart so we can see all the years on a single screen
不过如果我们把所有图放到一起来看
It’s pretty safe to say, when the yield curve inverts
很明显的是 收益率曲线倒挂
it’s not a good sign
往往不是一个好的迹象

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视频概述

收益率曲线

听录译者

收集自网络

翻译译者

Ashleyfong

审核员

审核员Y

视频来源

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xiiHjrewXNI

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