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气候变化的乐观情况

The case for optimism on climate change | Al Gore

[掌声]
我之前为参与“梦想”主题而兴奋
I was excited to be a partof the “Dream” theme,
但后来发现我要带头讲“噩梦”这个章节
and then I found out I’m leading off the the nightmare a section of it
当然
and… and certainly
也有关于气候危机的部分
there are things about the climate crisis that qualify
我有一些坏消息
and I have some bad news,
但更多的是好消息
but I have a lot more good news,
我将会提出三个问题
I’m going to propose three questions.
而第一个问题的答案必然涉及一些坏消息
And the answer to the first one necessarily involves little bad news,
但别泄气 因为第二 三个问题的答案
but hang on, because the answers to the second and third questions really
非常正面
are very positive.
第一个问题是 我们必须改变吗
So the first question is do we really have to change,
当然
and of course
包括阿波罗计划在内的其他事情
the Apollo mission among other things
改变了环境运动
changed the environmental movement
真正地开始了现代环境运动
really launched the modern environmental movement.
这张地球升起照片首次公布的18个月后
18 months after this earth rised picture was first seen on earth,
设立了第一个世界地球日
the first Earth day was organized,
从太空中回顾我们的星球
and we learned a lot about ourselves
我们对自身有了更多了解
looking back at our planet from space.
我们了解到的其中一件事就
And one of the things that we learned
证实了科学家之前所说的
confirmed what the scientists have long told us
其中最重要的事实之一是
one of the most essential facts about
气候危机与天空息息相关
the climate crisis has to do with the sky.
如照片所示
As this picture illustrates
天空没有从陆地仰望时那样浩瀚
the sky is not the vast and limitless expanse it appears when we look up from the ground,
它是行星周围的大气薄壳
it is a very thin shell of atmosphere surrounding the planet,
而现在
that right now is the open sewer
则是工业文明的下水道
for our industrial civilization as it’s currently organized.
我们每天排出1.1亿吨
We are spewing 110 million tons of heat
导致全球变暖的高温污染物
trapping global warming pollution into it every 24 hours,
免费且不间断
free of charge, go ahead.
温室气体的来源很多
And there are many sources of the greenhouse gases
我当然不会列举所有来源
I’m certainly not going to go through them all
我会集中讲主要的来源
I’m going to focus on the main one.
这涉及到农业 饮食 人口
But agriculture is involved, diet is involved, population is involved,
涉及森林 运输 海洋 冻土融化的管理
management of forests, transportation, the oceans, the melting of the permafrost,
但我会集中在问题的核心
But I’m going to focus on the heart of the problem
事实上 世界上每年燃烧的能量中
which is the fact that we still rely on
有85%是依赖于
dirty carbon-based fuels for 85% of all the energy
肮脏的碳基燃料
that our world burns every year.
从这张图片可以看出 二战后
You can see from this image that after World War two,
排放速率开始急剧增长
the emission rates started really accelerating.
大量累积的人造温室污染物
and the accumulated amount of manmade global warming pollution
已经上升到大气中
that is up in the atmosphere.
现在为止吸收的额外热能相当于
now traps as much extra heat energy as would be
40万颗广岛级别的原子弹
released by four hundred thousand Hiroshima class atomic bombs exploding
一年365天24小时爆炸释放的能量
every 24 hours 365 days a year
事实一再表明 保守说 这就是事实
fact-checked over and over again, conservative, it’s the truth.
现在 它是一个大行星 但是
Now it’s a big planet, but…
[爆炸声]
[explosion sound]
这是大量能量
That is a lot of energy,
特别是一天放大40万倍后
particularly when you multiply it 400,000 times per day.
所有额外的热能正在加热大气
And all that extra heat energy is heating up the atmosphere,
加热整个地球
the whole earth system.
来看看大气层
let’s look at the atmosphere,
这张图描述了
this is a depiction of
我们过去认为的气温正态分布图
what we used to think of as the normal distribution of temperatures
白色区域表示正常温度的天数
the white represent normal temperature days
1951-1980年是任选的
1951 to 1980 arbitrarily chosen,
蓝色是比平均凉爽的天数
the blue are cooler than average days,
红色是比平均暖和的天数
the red are warmer than average days.
但整条曲线在上世纪80年代向右移动了
But the entire curve has moved to the right in the 1980s,
你可以在右下角看到
you’ll see in the lower right hand corner,
统计显示 极端炎热的天数
the appearance of statistically significant numbers
出现了显著的数字
of extremely hot days.
九十年代 曲线进一步移动
In the 90s, the curve shifted further
而且在过去10年
and in the last ten years,
你们看到极端炎热的天数
you see the extremely hot days are now more numerous
多于凉爽天数和平均气温天数
than the cooler than average days.
事实上 地球表面极端炎热的天气
In fact they are 150 times more common
比30年前多了150倍
on the surface of the earth than they were just thirty years ago,
所以就有了破纪录的温度
So we’re having record-breaking temperatures.
仪器测量到的15个最热的年份中
14 of the 15 hottest years ever measured with instruments
有14个在本世纪
have been in this young century
其中最热的是去年
and the hottest of all was last year.
较上世纪平均气温高的月份中
Last month was the 371 month in a row warmer
上个月排第371
than the 20th century average,
不仅是首个最暖和的一月
and the for the first time not only the warmest January,
而且首次
but for the first time
较平均气温高出2℉
it was more than two degrees Fahrenheit warmer than the average.
这些高温对动物 植物
These higher temperatures are having an effect on
人类 生态系统有重大影响
animals, plants, people ecosystems.
但就全球而言
but on a global basis,
93%额外的热能在海洋中
93% of all the extra heat energy is trapped in the oceans.
现在 科学家们可以在所有深度更精确地
And the scientists can measure the heat buildup much more precisely now at all depths
测量热量的发展 深海 洋中 水下百米
deep, mid-ocean, the first few hundred meters.
而且这也在加速
and this too is accelerating.
追溯到一个世纪前
It goes back more than a century
超过一半的增加
and more than half of the increase
出现在过去的19年里
has been in the last 19 years.
这是有后果的 首先
This has consequences, first-order consequence,
海洋风暴变得更猛烈
The ocean based storms gets stronger,
在袭击塔克洛班之前 超级台风海燕
super typhoon Haiyan went over areas of the Pacific
经过的太平洋海域的温度
five-and-a-half degrees Fahrenheit warmer than normal
较正常温度高5.5华氏度
before it slammed into Tacloban,
海燕是最具有破坏性的登陆风暴
as the most destructive storm ever to make landfall.
由于该事件的重大影响
Pope Francis who has made such a difference
教皇弗朗西斯随后到访塔克洛班
to this whole issue visited Tacloban right after that.
在袭击纽约和新泽西之前 飓风桑迪
that superstorm Sandy went over areas of the Atlantic nine degrees warmer than normal.
经过的大西洋海域 较正常气温高出9度
before slamming into New York and New Jersey.
第二个后果正影响着我们每个人
the second-order consequences are affecting all of us right now
变暖的海洋正在蒸发
the warmer oceans are evaporating
更多的水蒸发到空中
much more water vapor into the skies.
世界各地的平均湿度增加超过4%
Average humidity Worldwide’s gone up more than four percent,
蒸发的水产生了这些大气河流
And it creates these atmospheric rivers,
巴西科学家称之为飞行的河流
The Brazilian scientists call them flying rivers,
额外的水蒸气漏到到地面上
and they funnel all of that extra water vapor over the land
形成的风暴
where storm conditions trigger
引发大量破纪录的暴雨
these massive record-breaking downpours.
这张照片来自蒙大拿州
this is from Montana,
看看去年八月的一场暴风雨
take a look at this storm last August
当它经过亚利桑那州图森市时
as it moves over Tucson Arizona,
简直就像水滴溅落在城市里
It literally splashes off the city.
这些倾盆大雨确实不同寻常
These downpours are really unusual.
去年七月 在德克萨斯州 休斯顿
Last July in Houston Texas,
雨下了两天 雨量有1620亿加仑
it rained for two days 162 billion gallons,
这表明市中心的降雨量超过
that represents more than two days of the full
尼亚加拉大瀑布两天的流量
flow of Niagara Falls in the middle of the city,
这当然会使城市瘫痪
which was of course paralyzed.
这些创纪录的暴雨创造了
these record downpours are creating
历史性的洪水和泥石流
historic floods and mudslides,
这是智利去年的影片
this one is from Chile last year,
可以看到那个仓库被冲走
and you’ll see that warehouse go going by
他们的油罐车被冲走
their oil tanker cars going by.
这是西班牙去年九月的影片
This is from Spain last September,
我猜你会称之为 车辆大暴走
you could call this the running of the cars and trucks I guess.
现在每晚电视新闻里放的
Every night on the TV news now is like
就像在《启示录》里徒步旅行
a nature hike through the book of Revelation.
[笑]
(lahter)
我是说 是的
I mean, really,
保险业必然已经注意到 亏损已经在上升
the insurance industry has certainly noticed the losses have been mounting up,
对于正发生的事 他们并没有错觉
they’re not under any illusions about what’s happening,
其中的因果关系需要花些时间讨论
and the causality requires a moment of the discussion.
我们习惯于思考线性的原因和结果
We’re used to thinking of linear cause and linear effect,
一个原因一个结果
one cause one effect,
这是系统的因果关系
this is systemic causation
如伟大的凯文·特伦伯斯所说
As the great Kevin Trenberth says,
风暴各不相同
all storms are different now,
大气中有大量额外的能量
there’s so much extra energy in the atmosphere,
大量额外的水蒸气
there’s so much extra water vapor,
而风暴各不相同
every storm is different now.
因此 同样额外的热量
So the same extra heat pulls
吸走地面土壤中的水分
the soil moisture out of the ground
导致更深远 更普遍的干旱
and causes these deeper longer more pervasive, droughts
现在大规模干旱正在发生
and many of them are underway right now,
导致植被变干 北美西部火灾频繁
It dries out the vegetation and causes more fires in the western part of North America.
这些当然有很多证据
there’s certainly been evidence of that a lot of them,
随着热能增加 闪电增多
more lightning as the heat energy builds up
产生大量额外闪电
there’s a considerable amount of additional lightning also.
这些气象灾难
These climate-related disasters
对地缘政治产生影响 带来不稳定
also have geopolitical consequences and create instability.
2006年叙利亚发生的历史性气象干旱
The climate-related historic drought that started in Syria in 2006
致使当地60%的农场遭到破坏
destroyed 60% of the farms in Syria,
80%的牲畜死亡
killed 80% of the livestock,
150万气候难民涌入叙利亚
and drove 1.5 million climate refugeesinto the cities of Syria,
在那里 这些难民与150万伊战难民
where they collided with another1.5 million refugees
发生冲突
from the Iraq War.
加上其他因素 地狱之门打开了
And along with other factors,that opened the gates of Hell
现在人们正想方设法关上它
that people are trying to close now.
美国国防部早已
The US Defense Department has long warned
警告气候危机的后果
of consequences from the climate crisis,
涉及难民 食物和水资源短缺
including refugees, including food and water shortages
还有大范围流行病
and pandemic disease.
可以看到 细菌性疾病从热带地区
Right now we’re seeing microbial diseases
向高纬度地区传播
from the tropics spread to the higher latitudes;
交通革命与之密切相关
the transportation revolution has hada lot to do with this.
由于条件发生变化 一些纬度和地区
But the changing conditionschange the latitudes and the areas
细菌性疾病发展为地方病
where these microbial diseasescan become endemic
而蚊虫等携带者的范围亦发生变化
and change the range of the vectors,like mosquitoes and ticks that carry them.
如当下的塞卡病毒
The Zika epidemic now —
我们的北美还好些
we’re better positioned in North America
这里气候寒冷且公共卫生系统较好
because it’s still a little too cooland we have a better public health system.
但建议中美和南美地区的部分女性
But when women in some regionsof South and Central America
两年内不要怀孕
are advised not to get pregnantfor two years —
应该关注这些新情况
that’s something new,that ought to get our attention.
两大世界顶级医学期刊之一的《柳叶刀》
The Lancet, one of the two greatestmedical journals in the world,
在去年夏天将其列为紧急医疗事件
last summer labeled thisa medical emergency now.
塞卡病毒引发多起事件
And there are many factors because of it.
且与灭绝危机息息相关
This is also connectedto the extinction crisis.
本世纪50%地球物种处于
We’re in danger of losing 50 percentof all the living species on earth
濒临灭绝的地步
by the end of this century.
而陆生动植物
And already, land-based plants and animals
以平均每天15英尺
are now moving towards the poles
的速度向两极迁移
at an average rate of 15 feet per day.
再说说北极
Speaking of the North Pole,
去年十二月29日 给美国中西部带来
last December 29, the same storm
历史性洪水的暴风雨
that caused historic flooding in the American Midwest,
同样使北极温度
raised temperatures at the North Pole
较平时上升50℉
50 degrees Fahrenheit warmer than normal,
导致漫长黑暗的极夜里
causing the thawing of the North Pole
北极冰川融化
in the middle of the long,dark, winter, polar night.
而北极圈冰原融化
And when the land-based iceof the Arctic melts,
导致海平面上升
it raises sea level.
Paul Nicklen拍摄斯瓦尔巴特群岛描述了这一现象
Paul Nicklen’s beautiful photographfrom Svalbard illustrates this.
这严重威胁着格陵兰岛
It’s more dangerous coming off Greenland
特别是南极洲
and particularly, Antarctica.
按人口排序 受海平面上升威胁最大的
The 10 largest risk citiesfor sea-level rise by population
10个城市大部分在南亚和东南亚
are mostly in South and Southeast Asia.
而按资产威胁排序 第一是迈阿密
When you measure it by assets at risk,number one is Miami:
35亿美元受到威胁
three and a half trillion dollars at risk.
第三 纽约和纽瓦克
Number three: New York and Newark.
上次超级月亮时我就在迈阿密
I was in Miami last fall during the supermoon,
那是涨潮最高的一天
one of the highest high-tide days.
在迈阿密海滩 劳德代尔堡
And there were fish from the oceanswimming in some of the streets
海里的鱼都游到了街上
of Miami Beach and Fort Lauderdale and Del Rey.
如今这种事每逢涨潮都会发生
And this happens regularlyduring the highest-tide tides now.
因为没有雨 人们称其为“晴天洪水”
Not with rain — they call it”sunny-day flooding.”
洪水通过雨水管进入
It comes up through the storm sewers.
而迈阿密市长对市民宣讲
And the Mayor of Miami speaks for many
每次他说这已经过去时
when he says it is long past time
却总能在党派的镜头中看到
this can be viewed through a partisan lens.
这场危机日复一日地加重
This is a crisis that’s getting worse day by day.
我们需求抛弃党派偏见
We have to move beyond partisanship.
我想花一些时间来赞扬一下众议院共和党
And I want to take a momentto honor these House Republicans —
[掌声]
(Applause)
去年秋天他们鼓足勇气
who had the courage last fall
冒着政治风险站出来
to step out and take a political risk,
说出了气候危机的真相
by telling the truthabout the climate crisis.
气候危机的代价与日俱增
So the cost of the climatecrisis is mounting up,
其中有许多我不曾想到的方面
there are many of these aspectsI haven’t even mentioned.
我肩负重任
It’s an enormous burden.
我将提到一些
I’ll mention just one more,
上个月在达沃斯的世界经济论坛
because the World Economic Forumlast month in Davos,
集合750位经济学家的年度调查
after their annual survey of 750 economists,
宣称气候危机是目前影响全球经济的
said the climate crisis is nowthe number one risk
第一大危机
to the global economy.
所以你去问央行总裁
So you get central bankers
比如英国央行总裁马克·卡尼
like Mark Carney, the headof the UK Central Bank,
绝大多数碳储藏不可燃
saying the vast majorityof the carbon reserves are unburnable.
是次级碳
Subprime carbon.
我不需要提醒你次级房贷会怎样
I’m not going to remind you what happenedwith subprime mortgages,
但和它是一样的
but it’s the same thing.
如果查看工业革命以来
If you look at all of the carbon fuelsthat were burned
已经烧掉的碳燃料
since the beginningof the industrial revolution,
这是过去16年的燃烧总量
this is the quantity burnedin the last 16 years.
这是已经证实并见于教科书中的数据
Here are all the ones that are provenand left on the books,
280亿美元
28 trillion dollars.
国际能源署称只有这么多可以烧
The International Energy Agencysays only this amount can be burned.
剩下的 220亿美元
So the rest, 22 trillion dollars —
不能烧
unburnable.
因为它会威胁全球经济
Risk to the global economy.
这就是为什么资产转移具有现实意义
That’s why divestment movementmakes practical sense
而非仅仅是道德需求
and is not just a moral imperative.
所以对于第一个问题 我们必须改变吗
So the answer to the first question,”Must we change?”
答案是 是的 必须改变
is yes, we have to change.
第二个问题 我们能改变吗
Second question, “Can we change?”
这是个令人振奋的消息
This is the exciting news!
16年前世界上最佳的预测是
The best projectionsin the world 16 years ago
到2010年时 全球将安装
were that by 2010, the worldwould be able to install
30千兆瓦的风力发电机
30 gigawatts of wind capacity.
我们超过目标14.5倍
We beat that markby 14 and a half times over.
可以看到风力设备数量呈现指数曲线
We see an exponential curvefor wind installations now.
可以看到成本在急剧下降
We see the cost coming down dramatically.
在一些国家 如德国 一所发电厂
Some countries — take Germany,an industrial powerhouse
顺便一提 这里的气候与温哥华没有区别
with a climate not that differentfrom Vancouver’s, by the way —
去年12月一天
one day last December,
生产的能源 有81%来自可再生能源
got 81 percent of all its energyfrom renewable resources,
主要是太阳能和风能
mainly solar and wind.
许多国家
A lot of countries are gettingmore than half on an average basis.
更好的消息是
More good news:
由于解决了间歇性问题
energy storage,from batteries particularly,
成本急剧下降
is now beginning to take off
能源储存 特别是电池
because the cost has beencoming down very dramatically
已经开始发挥作用
to solve the intermittency problem.
太阳能的消息更为振奋
With solar, the news is evenmore exciting!
14年前最好预测 到2010年
The best projections 14 years agowere that we would install
将安装年产1千兆瓦的装置
one gigawatt per year by 2010.
2010年到来时 我们超过目标17倍
When 2010 came around,we beat that mark by 17 times over.
去年 超过了58倍
Last year, we beat it by 58 times over.
今年 预计将超过68倍
This year, we’re on trackto beat it 68 times over.
我们会实现的
We’re going to win this.
我们会成功的
We are going to prevail.
太阳能的指数曲线更陡
The exponential curve on solaris even steeper and more dramatic.
我10前站在这个舞台上时
When I came to this stage 10 years ago,
它在这里
this is where it was.
可以看到这些指数曲线
We have seen a revolutionary breakthrough
出现革命性的突破
in the emergenceof these exponential curves.
[掌声]
(Applause)
过去的30年中成本每年下降10%
And the cost has come down10 percent per year for 30 years.
并且还在继续下降
And it’s continuing to come down.
如今商界已经注意到这些
Now, the business communityhas certainly noticed this,
因为它已经跨过了电网平价点
because it’s crossingthe grid parity point.
廉价的太阳能渗透速度开始上升
Cheaper solar penetration ratesare beginning to rise.
电网平价可以理解为一条分界线
Grid parity is understoodas that line, that threshold,
在该值以下 可再生能源发电
below which renewable electricityis cheaper than electricity
较燃烧化石燃料更廉价
from burning fossil fuels.
这个临界值有点像
That threshold is a little bitlike the difference
32℉和33℉
between 32 degrees Fahrenheitand 33 degrees Fahrenheit,
或0℃和1℃的区别
or zero and one Celsius.
它不是1度之差
It’s a difference of more than one degree,
而是冰和水的差距
it’s the difference between ice and water.
是市场上投资新商机的资本中
And it’s the difference between marketsthat are frozen up,
冻结资本与流动资本的差距
and liquid flows of capitalinto new opportunities for investment.
这是有史以来
This is the biggestnew business opportunity
最大的商机
in the history of the world,
三分之二属于私营企业
and two-thirds of itis in the private sector.
我们见证着新投资的井喷
We are seeing an explosionof new investment.
自2010年开始 对可再生能源发电的全球性投资
Starting in 2010, investments globally
超过了在化石能源上的投资
in renewable electricity generation surpassed fossils.
从此差距越来越大
The gap has been growing ever since.
对未来的预测更加激动人心
The projections for the futureare even more dramatic,
即使现在化石能源的投资金额
even though fossil energyis now still subsidized
仍然是可再生能源的40多倍
at a rate 40 times larger than renewables.
顺带一提 如果再加上对核能预测
And by the way, if you addthe projections for nuclear on here,
特别是如果假设相关研究工作有所突破
particularly if you assumethat the work many are doing
使其安全性和接受度更高
to try to break through to saferand more acceptable,
能更易负担核能的价格
more affordable forms of nuclear,
这条曲线会改变得更剧烈
this could change even more dramatically.
那么对一项新技术
So is there any precedentfor such a rapid adoption
有如此快速接受的先例吗
of a new technology?
有很多 但先来看看手机
Well, there are many,but let’s look at cell phones.
1980年 先是美国电视电话公司和美国贝尔电话公司
In 1980, AT&T, then Ma Bell,
先后委托麦肯锡 对出现反响不佳的手机
commissioned McKinsey to doa global market survey of those
做全球市场调查
clunky new mobile phonesthat appeared then.
他们问 到2000年时可以销售多少
“How many can we sellby the year 2000?” they asked.
麦肯锡回复 90万
McKinsey came back and said, “900,000.”
显然 到2000年时
And sure enough,when the year 2000 arrived,
他们在开始的三天里确实销售了90万台
they did sell 900,000 –in the first three days.
全年结算下来 销售量超过120倍
And for the balance of the year,they sold 120 times more.
当下世界上的手机联系多于人际
And now there are more cell connectionsthan there are people in the world.
那么他们为什么错了 还错得这么离谱
So, why were they not only wrong,but way wrong?
我一直在问自己 为什么? [笑声]
I’ve asked that question myself, “Why?” (Laughter)
我认为答案就在第三部分里
And I think the answer is in three parts.
首先 质量上升 成本下降的速度
First, the cost came down much fasterthan anybody expected,
远超每个人的预期
even as the quality went up.
没有地上运输网的低收入国家和地区
And low-income countries, placesthat did not have a landline grid —
将因新技术而跨越式发展
they leap-frogged to the new technology.
发展中国家急剧膨胀
The big expansion has beenin the developing counties.
发展中的世界里 电网是什么样
So what about the electricity gridsin the developing world?
嗯 不那么火
Well, not so hot.
在很多地区都没有
And in many areas, they don’t exist.
在印度完全没电的地方 生活的人口
There are more peoplewithout any electricity at all in India
比美国总人口还多
than the entire populationof the United States of America.
我们可以得到
So now we’re getting this:
草棚上的太阳能板
solar panels on grass huts
和可负担的新商业模式
and new business modelsthat make it affordable.
Muhammad Yunus在孟加拉国以小额信贷的方式为其提供资金
Muhammad Yunus financedthis one in Bangladesh with micro-credit.
这是一家乡村超市
This is a village market.
孟加拉国现在是世界上开展最快的国家
Bangladesh is now the fastest-deployingcountry in the world:
平均每分钟就有两套系统 日复一日
two systems per minuteon average, night and day.
我们拥有了所需的一切
And we have all we need:
从太阳到地球的充足能源
enough energy from the Suncomes to the earth
全年时刻满足全球的能源需求
every hour to supply the full world’senergy needs for an entire year.
实际上略少一些
It’s actually a little bitless than an hour.
所以对第二个问题“我们能改变么”
So the answer to the second question,”Can we change?”
答案当然是“能”
is clearly “Yes.”
而且十分确凿
And it’s an ever-firmer “yes.”
最后一个问题 “我们会改变么”
Last question, “Will we change?”
巴黎是一个突破
Paris really was a breakthrough,
设立了一些规定
some of the provisions are binding
定期审查也很重要
and the regular reviews will matter a lot.
但国家不会止步 它们会前进
But nations aren’t waiting,they’re going ahead.
中国早已宣布 从明年开始
China has already announcedthat starting next year,
将采取全国限额交易制度
they’re adopting a nationwidecap and trade system.
他们将与欧盟对接
They will likely link upwith the European Union.
美国早已改变
The United States has already been changing.
在接下来的10年里
All of these coal plants were proposed
所有提议的火电厂都将取消
in the next 10 years and canceled.
所有现有的火电厂都将停产
All of these existingcoal plants were retired.
所有火电厂都将宣布停产
All of these coal plants have hadtheir retirement announced.
所有 停产
All of them — canceled.
我们正在前进
We are moving forward.
去年 如果你关注美国
Last year — if you look atall of the investment
在发电方面的投资的话
in new electricity generationin the United States,
几乎四分之三来自可再生能源
almost three-quarterswas from renewable energy,
几乎都是风能和太阳能
mostly wind and solar.
我们正在解决这场危机
We are solving this crisis.
唯一的问题是 需要多久
The only question is:how long will it take to get there?
事件之急迫 人们纷纷组织起来
So, it matters that a lotof people are organizing
督促这种改变
to insist on this change.
为此 大约40万人在纽约
Almost 400,000 peoplemarched in New York City
联合国特别法庭前游行
before the UN special session on this.
成千上万来自世界各地的人
Many thousands, tens of thousands,
在城市之中游行
marched in cities around the world.
因此 我非常乐观
And so, I am extremely optimistic.
我之前说过 我们会成功的
As I said before,we are going to win this.
我来讲完这个故事
I’ll finish with this story.
我13岁的时候
When I was 13 years old,
听过肯尼迪总统的一个提议
I heard that proposal by President Kennedy
计划10年内实现登月并安全返航
to land a person on the Moonand bring him back safely in 10 years.
我听到那时的大人们说
And I heard adults of that day and time say,
“那是太鲁莽 太昂贵且注定失败”
“That’s reckless, expensive, may well fail.”
但是8年零2个月之后
But eight years and two months later,
尼尔·阿姆斯特朗登上月球之时
in the moment that Neil Armstrongset foot on the Moon,
休斯顿的NASA地面指挥中心欢声响起
there was great cheer that went upin NASA’s mission control in Houston.
但是很少有人知道
Here’s a little-known fact about that:
那天屋里执行这项任务的
the average age of the systems engineers,
工程师和管理者平均才26岁
the controllers in the room that day, was 26,
也就是说 除此之外
which means, among other things,
他们听到这个挑战时才18岁
their age, when they heardthat challenge, was 18.
现在 对于公众传统而言
We now have a moral challenge
这是一项道德挑战
that is in the tradition of othersthat we have faced.
上世纪美国最伟大的诗人
One of the greatest poetsof the last century in the US,
华莱士·史蒂文斯
Wallace Stevens,
写的诗令我坚持不懈
wrote a line that has stayed with me:
“在最终的‘不’之后到来了一个‘是’
“After the final ‘no,’there comes a ‘yes,’
未来的世界取决于那个‘是’”
and on that ‘yes’,the future world depends.”
废奴主义者行动时
When the abolitionists started their movement,
在一连串的不之后
they met with no after no after no.
他们得到了是
And then came a yes.
女权运动
The Women’s Suffrage and Women’s Rights Movement
在遇到无尽的不后 最终得到了是
met endless no’s, until finally,there was a yes.
民权运动反对种族隔离
The Civil Rights Movement,the movement against apartheid,
以及最近在美国和其他地区
and more recently, the movementfor gay and lesbian rights
对性少数者的平权运动
here in the United States and elsewhere.
在最终的不之后到来了一个是
After the final “no” comes a “yes.”
每当这些巨大的道德挑战最终归结为
When any great moral challengeis ultimately resolved
对错之间的二选一时
into a binary choicebetween what is right and what is wrong,
结局是注定的 因为我们是人
the outcome is fore-ordainedbecause of who we are as human beings.
在坐的我们是那99%
Ninety-nine percent of us,that is where we are now
而我们一定会成功
and it is why we’re going to win this.
我们拥有我们需要的一切
We have everything we need.
一些人还在怀疑 我们有行动的意志吗
Some still doubt that we havethe will to act,
但我要说行动的意志就是可再生能源
but I say the will to act is itselfa renewable resource.
非常感谢
Thank you very much.
[掌声]
(Applause)
你有很多惊人的技能
You’ve got this incredible combination of skills.
你有科学家的精神
You’ve got this scientist mindthat can understand
能理解问题的所有角度
the full range of issues,
并能将其转化为生动语言
and the ability to turn itinto the most vivid language.
独一无二 难怪你能领导这件事
No one else can do that,that’s why you led this thing.
这在十年前便十分惊人 如今更是如此
It was amazing to see it 10 years ago,it was amazing to see it now.
感谢你这么说 克里斯
Well, you’re nice to say that, Chris.
但说实话 我在科学界有很多好朋友
But honestly, I have a lot of really good friends
他们都有难以置信的耐心
in the scientific communitywho are incredibly patient
而且愿意坐下来一遍又一遍地
and who will sit thereand explain this stuff to me
向我解释这件事
over and over and over again
直到我能将它转化为足够简单
until I can get itinto simple enough language
并理解的语言
that I can understand it.
这就是尝试交流的关键
And that’s the key to tryingto communicate.
你第一部分的演讲很惊人
CA: So, your talk. First part: terrifying,
第二部分又充满希望
second part: incredibly hopeful.
我们如何知道所有的这些图表和项目
How do we know that all those graphs,all that progress, is enough
足以解决你在第一部分展示的问题
to solve what you showed in the first part?
我想……通过……
AG: I think that the crossing —
你知道 我进入商界只有15年
you know, I’ve only beenin the business world for 15 years.
但我学到的其中之一 就是
But one of the things I’ve learnedis that apparently it matters
如果一个新的产品或服务的价格
if a new product or service is more expensive
比成本贵 或便宜
than the incumbent, or cheaper than.
如果便宜 结果是不同的
Turns out, it makes a differenceif it’s cheaper than.
当它越过那条线时
And when it crosses that line,
会有天翻地覆的变化
then a lot of things really change.
我们常常为事情的发展而吃惊
We are regularly surprisedby these developments.
伟大的已故经济学家多恩布什曾说
The late Rudi Dornbusch,the great economist said, you know,
事件酝酿之久 发生之快
“Things take longer to happenthan you think they will,
我们难以想象
and then they happen much fasterthan you thought they could.”
我觉得我们正是如此
I really think that’s where we are.
现在一些人用 太阳能点 这个词
Some people are using the phrase”The Solar Singularity” now,
来指当太阳能价格低于电网平价时
meaning when it getsbelow the grid parity,
在大多数没有补助的地区
unsubsidized in most places,
太阳能会成为默认选项
then it’s the default choice.
昨天的一个演讲 关于小型公交的
Now, in one of the presentationsyesterday, the jitney thing,
规律表明其影响会降低
there is an effort to useregulations to slow this down.
我觉得这没用
And I just don’t think it’s going to work.
亚特兰大的黛比·杜利女士
There’s a woman in Atlanta, Debbie Dooley,
是亚特兰大茶党主席
who’s the Chairmanof the Atlanta Tea Party.
他们拉拢她 将税金
They enlisted herin this effort to put a tax
投入太阳能板和太阳能制度
on solar panels and regulations.
而她早已把太阳能板架上了屋顶
And she had just putsolar panels on her roof
她不懂这些需求
and she didn’t understand the request.
[笑声]她跑去和塞拉俱乐部结盟
(Laughter) And so she went and formedan alliance with the Sierra Club
成立了一个新组织 称为绿茶党
and they formed a new organizationcalled the Green Tea Party.
[笑声][掌声]他们打破了提议
(Laughter) (Applause) And they defeated the proposal.
所以您问题的答案是
So, finally, the answerto your question is,
这听着会有些过时 甚至有些老套
this sounds a little cornyand maybe it’s a cliché,
但10年前 克里斯蒂安娜曾提及于此
but 10 years ago — and Christianareferred to this —
在坐的各位
there are people in this audience
在产生这些指数曲线的过程中
who played an incredibly significant role
扮演着极其重要的角色
in generating those exponential curves.
也许他们中的一些无法在经济方面做贡献
And it didn’t work out economicallyfor some of them,
但他们掀起这场全球革命
but it kick-startedthis global revolution.
凭借诸位观众的见识
And what people in this audience do now
我们必将赢得胜利
with the knowledgethat we are going to win this.
而关键就是我们多快才能胜利
But it matters a lot how fast we win it.
艾伯特·戈尔 这太棒了
Al Gore, that was incredibly powerful.
等到那时
If this turns out to be the year,
党派事务发生改变
that the partisan thing changes,
如你所说 这不再是个党派问题
as you said, it’s no longera partisan issue,
而您带领人们从另一边
but you bring along peoplefrom the other side together,
依靠科学 依靠各种投资机会
backed by science, backed by these kindsof investment opportunities,
依靠理性 嗯……您会胜利的
backed by reason, emm… you win the day boy,
太令人激动了
that’s really exciting.
非常感谢能让我回到TED做演讲
Thank you so much for bringing me back to TED.
谢谢大家
Thank you!
[掌声]
(Applause)

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视频概述

介绍了当下严峻的气候形势,展望了未来清洁能源的发展。

听录译者

收集自网络

翻译译者

tu3535

审核员

w

视频来源

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gVfgkFaswn4

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