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前所未有的好方法诠释数字统计 – 译学馆
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前所未有的好方法诠释数字统计

The best stats you've ever seen | Hans Rosling

大约在十年前
About 10 years ago,
我担当起 给瑞典大学生
I took on the task to teach global development
讲授全球发展的任务
to Swedish undergraduate students.
之前的20年我一直
That was after having spent about 20 years
在非洲研究饥饿问题 所以大家以为
together with African institutions studying hunger in Africa,
我对世界有些了解
so I was sort of expected to know a little about the world.
在我们的卡罗林斯卡医学院
And I started in our medical university, Karolinska Institute,
我开设了一门本科生课程“全球健康”
an undergraduate course called Global Health.
刚开课的时候我还有些紧张
But when you get that opportunity, you get a little nervous.
因为来听课的都
I thought, these students coming to us
是瑞典大学的优等生
actually have the highest grade you can get
他们或许早已了解我
in Swedish college systems —
准备教的内容
so I thought,
于是在第一堂课里
maybe they know everything I’m going to teach them about.
我作了一个小测试
So I did a pre-test when they came.
其中有一道题让我受益匪浅 下列5对国家中
And one of the questions from which I learned a lot was this one:
哪一个的儿童死亡率高于另一个?
“Which country has the highest child mortality of these five pairs?”
我所选择的配对国家都是
I put them together, so that in each pair of country,
一个的儿童死亡率是另一个的两倍 因为数据差距很大
one has twice the child mortality of the other.
因此数据本身的不确定性可以
And this means that it’s much bigger a difference
忽略不计
than the uncertainty of the data.
今天我不会拿这来考大家
I won’t put you at a test here, but it’s Turkey,
土耳其 波兰 俄罗斯 巴基斯坦和南非
which is highest there, Poland, Russia, Pakistan and South Africa.
这是瑞典学生的测验结果
And these were the results of the Swedish students.
让我高兴的是
I did it so I got the confidence interval,
5题中
which is pretty narrow, and I got happy,
平均答对的只有1.8题
of course: a 1.8 right answer out of five possible.
我这个教授
That means that there was a place
还有这门课
for a professor of international health
因此都有了存在的必要
and for my course.
但后来
(Laughter)
有天深夜 当我写总结报告的时候
But one late night, when I was compiling the report,
我突然有了新的发现
I really realized my discovery.
瑞典大学的优等生
I have shown that Swedish top students
们对世界的了解 竟然还不如黑猩猩
know statistically significantly less about the world than the chimpanzees.
(笑声)
(Laughter)
因为黑猩猩们至少能蒙对一半
Because the chimpanzee would score half right
在两个选项旁边各放一根香蕉
if I gave them two bananas with Sri Lanka and Turkey.
就有一半的几率答对
They would be right half of the cases.
这些优等生们却做不到
But the students are not there.
这不是由于知识缺乏 而是他们先入为主的错误理念
The problem for me was not ignorance; it was preconceived ideas.
我还把这个测试拿去
I did also an unethical study
给卡罗林斯卡学院的教授们做
of the professors of the Karolinska Institute,
(笑声)他们每年负责颁发诺贝尔医学奖
that hands out the Nobel Prize in Medicine,
结果教授们和黑猩猩半斤八两
and they are on par with the chimpanzee there.
(笑声)
(Laughter)
我意识到很有必要
This is where I realized
交流一下这个问题
that there was really a need to communicate,
因为多数人并不知道
because the data of what’s happening in the world
世界各国的儿童健康的改善
and the child health of every country is very well aware.
我们作了一个软件 每一个小球代表
We did this software which displays it like this:
一个国家
every bubble here is a country.
这个是中国
This country over here is China.
这个是印度小球
This is India.
的尺寸代表该国的人口
The size of the bubble is the population,
X轴是生育率
and on this axis here, I put fertility rate.
我曾问过学生们
Because my students, what they said
如果让你们来审视这个世界
when they looked upon the world, and I asked them,
你们的真实想法是什么 其实这些教科书上都是
“What do you really think about the world?” Well,
丁丁历险记(带有殖民主义思想的漫画)的人物
I first discovered that the textbook was Tintin, mainly.
(笑声) 学生们回答
(Laughter)
世界是由“我们和他们”组成的
And they said,”The world is still’we’ and’them.’
“我们”指西方世界 “他们”指第三世界
And’we’ is Western world and’them’ is Third World.”
我又问“什么是西方世界?”
“And what do you mean with Western world?” I said. “Well,
“西方世界寿命长且家庭小;
that’s long life and small family,
第三世界寿命短而家庭大 ”
and Third World is short life and large family.”
那么一起来看看 X轴是生育率
So this is what I could display here.
每个妇女的育儿数
I put fertility rate here: number of children per woman: one,
从每人1 2 3 4胎
two, three, four, up to about eight children per woman.
到8胎我们有1962年之后的各国家庭大小
We have very good data since 1962 — 1960 about —
的可靠数据
on the size of families in all countries.
数据误差相当小
The error margin is narrow. Here,
Y轴是平均寿命
I put life expectancy at birth,
从30岁到70岁不等
from 30 years in some countries up to about 70 years.
1962年的时候 的确有一群国家在上面
And 1962, there was really a group of countries here
这些是发达国家
that was industrialized countries,
他们家庭小 寿命长
and they had small families and long lives.
而这些则是发展中国家
And these were the developing countries:
他们家庭大 寿命也相对短些
they had large families and they had relatively short lives. Now,
从1962年到今天
what has happened since 1962?
世界有什么变化吗?
We want to see the change.
我们来看看学生们正确吗?国家还是分为2类吗?
Are the students right? Is it still two types of countries?
或者发展中国家的家庭变小(这些小球)移动到了左边? 或者发展中国家
Or have these developing countries got smaller families and they live here?
人们的寿命变长(这些小球)移动到了上面?
Or have they got longer lives and live up there?
这些数据都来自于联合国
Let’s see. We stopped the world then.
大家看到没有?
This is all U.N. statistics that have been available.
这个是中国
Here we go. Can you see there?
他们在往上移动 健康状况不断改善 这些绿色的拉丁美洲国家
It’s China there, moving against better health there, improving there.
正朝向小家庭的方向移动 这些黄色的小球
All the green Latin American countries are moving towards smaller families.
是阿拉伯国家
Your yellow ones here are the Arabic countries,
寿命在变长但家庭规模不变 非洲国家是下面的绿球
and they get longer life, but not larger families.
他们一直在下面
The Africans are the green here. They still remain here.
这个是印度印度尼西亚的移动速度非常快
This is India; Indonesia is moving on pretty fast.
(笑声)
(Laughter)
80年代的时候 孟加拉国仍然和非洲国家在一起
In the’80s here, you have Bangladesh still among the African countries.
但是80年代的奇迹发生在孟加拉国
But now, Bangladesh — it’s a miracle that happens in the’80s:
妈妈们开始宣传和普及计划生育
the imams start to promote family planning.
他们向左上角移动
They move up into that corner.
90年代恐怖的艾滋病流行
And in the’90s, we have the terrible HIV epidemic
导致非洲国家的平均寿命缩短
that takes down the life expectancy of the African countries
而其他国家都向左上角移动
and all the rest of them move up into the corner,
大家都有了长寿命和小家庭
where we have long lives and small family,
而世界也焕然一新了
and we have a completely new world.
(掌声)
(Applause)
现在
(Applause ends)
我们对比一下
Let me make a comparison directly
美国和越南
between the United States of America and Vietnam.
1964年
1964.
的美国家庭小寿命长
America had small families and long life;
越南的家庭大而寿命短
Vietnam had large families and short lives.
这是后来的变化
And this is what happens:
越战时期的数据显示
the data during the war indicate
尽管战争造成伤亡
that even with all the death,
越南人的平均寿命仍有提高
there was an improvement of life expectancy.
70
By the end of the year,
年代末期 越南的计划生育减小
the family planning started in Vietnam;
了家庭规模
they went for smaller families.
美国人的平均寿命也在延长
And the United States up there is getting for longer life,
而家庭规模不变
keeping family size.
到了90年代 越南由计划经济
And in the’80s now, they give up Communist planning
转为市场经济
and they go for market economy,
其经济发展的速度超过了
and it moves faster even than social life.
社会的发展 今天(2003)
And today, we have in Vietnam
越南人的平均寿命和家庭规模
the same life expectancy and the same family size
已经和越战结束时(1974)
here in Vietnam, 2003,
的美国一样
as in United States, 1974, by the end of the war.
如果没有看到这些数据的话
If we don’t look in the data,
我们会低估了亚洲的巨大变化
I think we all underestimate the tremendous change in Asia,
这些超前于经济发展的社会变革
which was in social change before we saw the economical change.
下面我们换个
Let’s move over to another way here
视角
in which we could display
X轴显示了全世界
the distribution in the world of the income.
的收入分布
This is the world distribution of income of people.
每天收入1美元 10美元和100美元
One dollar, 10 dollars or 100 dollars per day.
富与穷之间的鸿沟几乎消失了
There’s no gap between rich and poor any longer.
简直是个奇迹
This is a myth.
这里还有一个很小的峰
There’s a little hump here.
但总体上是均数分布的
But there are people all the way.
我们看看收入的分配情况
And if we look where the income ends up,
这代表全世界人民每年的
this is 100 percent the world’s annual income.
全部收入
And the richest 20 percent,
最富有的20%那部分人
they take out of that about 74 percent.
得到了全部收入的74% 最贫穷的20%那部分人
And the poorest 20 percent, they take about two percent.
只得到2% 可见发展中国家
And this shows that the concept of developing countries
的理念
is extremely doubtful.
极其的不确切
We think about aid,
我们总以为最富的人应该给最穷的人
like these people here giving aid to these people here.
提供援助 其实中间这部分才是世界人口的主体
But in the middle, we have most of the world population,
而他们仅得到全部收入的24%
and they have now 24 percent of the income.
这是个老问题了 中间这些人是谁?
We heard it in other forms. And who are these?
他们在哪些国家?先看非洲
Where are the different countries? I can show you Africa.
非洲占世界人口的十分之一
This is Africa.
多数是穷人
10% the world population, most in poverty.
这个代表富裕的经合组织成员国
This is OECD.
联合国俱乐部的会员
The rich country. The country club of the U.N.
他们在这边
And they are over here on this side.
很小一部分与非洲重叠 这是拉丁美洲
Quite an overlap between Africa and OECD.
他们可以代表全世界
And this is Latin America.
从最贫穷到
It has everything on this Earth,
最富有的人都在那里
from the poorest to the richest
再往上是东欧
in Latin America.
东亚还有南亚
And on top of that, we can put East Europe,
过去是什么
we can put East Asia, and we put South Asia.
样子的呢?
And how did it look like
如果
if we go back in time,
我们回到1970年
to about 1970?
这里有一个明显的峰
Then there was more of a hump.
这些绝对贫困的人群中 大多数是亚洲人
And we have most who lived in absolute poverty were Asians.
那时世界的问题就在于
The problem in the world was the poverty in Asia.
亚洲的贫穷
And if I now let the world move forward,
后来随着人口的增长
you will see that while population increases,
数以亿计的亚洲人摆脱了贫困
there are hundreds of millions in Asia getting out of poverty
另外一些人却陷入贫穷
and some others getting into poverty,
这就是今天的世界 而这是世界银行
and this is the pattern we have today.
对未来最乐观的预测
And the best projection from the World Bank
世界再也不是贫富悬殊的 大多数人拥有
is that this will happen, and we will not have a divided world.
中等的收入 当然这是指数
We’ll have most people in the middle.
幂分布的图
Of course it’s a logarithmic scale here,
因为经济的增长是用百分比来衡量的
but our concept of economy is growth with percent.
我们用百分比的变化来评估
We look upon it as a possibility of percentile increase.
经济增长
If I change this,
下面把X轴改为人均国内生产总值
and take GDP per capita instead of family income,
个人的数据转为
and I turn these individual data
各大洲的数据
into regional data of gross domestic product,
球的大小代表人口的多少
and I take the regions down here,
这个是经合组织国家
the size of the bubble is still the population.
这是撒哈拉
And you have the OECD there,
以南非洲
and you have sub-Saharan Africa there,
我们把阿拉伯国家
and we take off the Arab states there,
从非洲和亚洲单独
coming both from Africa and from Asia,
分出来
and we put them separately,
然后把X轴延伸一下
and we can expand this axis,
再加上一个新的维度
and I can give it a new dimension here,
一个有社会价值的参数 儿童生存率
by adding the social values there, child survival.
X轴代表经济
Now I have money on that axis,
Y轴显示儿童存活的比率
and I have the possibility of children to survive there.
一些国家的99.7%的小孩
In some countries,
可以活到5岁以上
99.7 % of children survive to five years of age; others,
另一些国家只有70%
only 70.
很明显可以看到 经合组织成员国
And here, it seems, there is a gap between OECD,
和拉丁美洲 东欧 东亚
Latin America, East Europe, East Asia,
阿拉伯国家 南亚 以及撒哈拉以南非洲地区的差距
Arab states, South Asia and sub-Saharan Africa.
儿童生存率和经济之间 联系非常紧密
The linearity is very strong between child survival and money.
下面把撒哈拉以南非洲地区
But let me split sub-Saharan Africa.
分解成各个国家
Health is there and better health is up there.
分布靠上边的国家 拥有更高的健康水平
I can go here and I can split sub-Saharan Africa into its countries.
撒哈拉以南的非洲各国
And when it burst,
是如此分布的 小球的尺寸代表该国人口
the size of its country bubble is the size of the population.
塞拉里昂在下边
Sierra Leone down there. Mauritius is up there.
毛里求斯在上边 毛里求斯是第一个
Mauritius was the first country
消除了贸易壁垒的国家
to get away with trade barriers,
他们
and they could sell their sugar —
的蔗糖和纺织品的贸易协定
they could sell their textiles —
与欧洲和北美一样
on equal terms as the people in Europe and North America.
但是非洲内部的差异非常巨大
There’s a huge difference between Africa.
加纳在中部
And Ghana is here in the middle.
塞拉里昂需要人道主义援助
In Sierra Leone, humanitarian aid.
乌干达则需要发展援助 在加纳可以进行投资了
Here in Uganda, development aid. Here,
毛里求斯则可以去度假
time to invest; there, you can go for a holiday.
非洲内部的差异之大确实很惊人 而我们却总以为
It’s a tremendous variation within Africa
非洲国家都差不多
which we rarely often make — that it’s equal everything.
下面分解南亚各国
I can split South Asia here.
印度是中间的蓝色大球
India’s the big bubble in the middle.
而斯里兰卡和阿富汗有着巨大差异
But a huge difference between Afghanistan and Sri Lanka.
把阿拉伯世界分解来看 尽管是相同的气候
I can split Arab states. How are they?
相同的文化 相同的宗教
Same climate, same culture, same religion — huge difference.
却有巨大的差异
Even between neighbors. Yemen,
也门在打内战
civil war.
邻国阿联酋却躺在钱堆里 而且(阿联酋
United Arab Emirates, money, which was quite equally and well used.
的)儿童
Not as the myth is.
健康数据
And that includes all the children of the foreign workers
包含了所有的外籍劳工
who are in the country.
大家总说数据不准确 数据其实比我们想象的
Data is often better than you think.
好很多
Many people say data is bad.
数据是有误差
There is an uncertainty margin,
但柬埔寨和新加坡
but we can see the difference here: Cambodia,
的差距肯定远大于数据的误差
Singapore.
再看东欧
The differences are much bigger than the weakness of the data.
在苏联经济模式下发展了多年
East Europe: Soviet economy for a long time,
但在过去10年 却经历了巨大的变化
but they come out after 10 years very, very differently.
当今的拉丁美洲
And there is Latin America. Today,
古巴再也不是
we don’t have to go
唯一的健康国家了
to Cuba to find a healthy country in Latin America.
几年后智利的儿童死亡率将
Chile will have a lower child mortality than Cuba
低于古巴
within some few years from now. Here,
这些是经合组织成员国
we have high-income countries in the OECD.
这里显示的就是我们的世界
And we get the whole pattern here of the world,
大概就是这样的情形
which is more or less like this.
如果我们回到过去 看看世界是怎样的
And if we look at it, how the world looks,
从1960年开始
in 1960, it starts to move.
1960年(中国有)毛泽东 他给中国带来了健康
This is Mao Tse-tung. He brought health to China.
他去世后邓小平
And then he died.
给中国带来了金钱 同时把中国带
And then Deng Xiaoping came and brought money to China,
回到世界的主流当中
and brought them into the mainstream again.
其他国家的移动方向也
And we have seen how countries move
不尽相同
in different directions like this,
很难找出哪个国家 能代表全世界
so it’s sort of difficult to get an example country
的发展模式
which shows the pattern of the world.
我们回到1960年做个比较
But I would like to bring you back to about here, at 1960.
先选中韩国(左边的小黄球)
I would like to compare
巴西(右边的黄绿色大球)
South Korea, which is this one, with Brazil,
乌干达
which is this one.
(Y轴上面的小红球)
The label went away for me here.
随着时间的推移
And I would like to compare Uganda, which is there.
我们看到
And I can run it forward, like this.
韩国的发展速度非常非常快
And you can see how South Korea is making a very,
巴西
very fast advancement,
就慢得多
whereas Brazil is much slower.
我们再回到过去
And if we move back again, here,
给每个球画出运动的轨迹
and we put on trails on them, like this,
可以看到 发展速度的差距非常大
you can see again that the speed of development
虽然各国的经济和健康
is very, very different,
发展的轨迹大同小异
and the countries are moving more or less
但是健康水平起点较高的国家
in the same rate as money and health,
发展速度远超过
but it seems you can move much faster
经济水平起点高的
if you are healthy first than if you are wealthy first.
为了说明这一点
And to show that,
我们看看阿联酋
you can put on the way of United Arab Emirates.
他们从这里出发 一个资源型国家
They came from here, a mineral country.
他们靠石油大把赚钱
They cached all the oil; they got all the money;
但健康绝不是超市里的货物
but health cannot be bought at the supermarket.
需要卫生方面的投资 需要提高儿童
You have to invest in health.
的教育水平
You have to get kids into schooling.
需要培训卫生工作者
You have to train health staff.
还要教育民众 Sheikh
You have to educate the population.
Sayed 干的非常漂亮
And Sheikh Zayed did that in a fairly good way.
尽管油价下跌了 他仍改善了阿联酋的健康
In spite of falling oil prices, he brought this country up here.
这里我们可以看到 世界发展的主流
So we’ve got a much more mainstream appearance of the world,
各国对资金的分配和使用
where all countries tend to use their money
都比过去合理的多
better than they used in the past. Now,
这里大家
this is, more or less,
看到各国的数据
if you look at the average data of the countries —
基本上都是平均数
they are like this.
但是用平均数可能会很危险 因为国家内部也存在
Now that’s dangerous, to use average data,
很大的差异
because there is such a lot of difference within countries.
我们看这里
So if I go and look here,
今天的乌干达和1960
we can see that Uganda today
年的韩国差不多
is where South Korea was in 1960.
如果把乌干达分解开 可以看到内部
If I split Uganda, there’s quite a difference within Uganda.
的明显差异
These are the quintiles of Uganda.
乌干达最富有的20%在右边
The richest 20 percent of Ugandans are there.
最贫穷的在左下边
The poorest are down there.
如果把南非分解开
If I split South Africa, it’s like this.
尼日在下边 他们刚遭受一场
And if I go down and look at Niger,
恐怖的饥荒 最贫穷的20%的尼日
where there was such a terrible famine, lastly, it’s like this.
人在最左边
The 20 percent poorest of Niger is out here,
而最富有的20%的南非人在最右边
and the 20 percent richest of South Africa is there,
今天我们仍然在讨论
and yet we tend to discuss
什么方案能解决非洲的问题
on what solutions there should be in Africa.
世界上所有的问题非洲都有
Everything in this world exists in Africa.
我们不可能讨论出一套通用方案 既能解决这些
And you can’t discuss universal access to HIV [medicine]
地方的艾滋病问题 同时也适用于这些地方
for that quintile up here with the same strategy as down here.
世界的发展一定要因地制宜来分析
The improvement of the world must be highly contextualized,
仅从各大洲的水平上来
and it’s not relevant to have it on regional level.
分析是不够的
We must be much more detailed.
当学生们接触到这个软件的时候 他们都非常兴奋
We find that students get very excited when they can use this.
此外 政策制定者 各企业部门 都会想知道世界的变化
And even more, policy makers and the corporate sectors
但为什么大家仍然不知道(世界
would like to see how the world is changing. Now,
的变化)
why doesn’t this take place?
为什么我们无法使用已知的数据呢
Why are we not using the data we have?
我们的联合国
We have data in the United Nations,
国家统计部门
in the national statistical agencies
学院还有非政府组织都拥有数据
and in universities and other non-governmental organizations.
但数据被隐藏在底层的数据库里
Because the data is hidden down in the databases.
而公众在上面(太阳)互联网在这里(地平线)
And the public is there, and the Internet is there,
并未得到有效的使用
but we have still not used it effectively.
之前我们看到的 关于世界变化的信息
All that information we saw changing in the world
并不包括公众资助的统计数据
does not include publicly-funded statistics.
的确有一些
There are some web pages like this, you know,
网站依靠数据库的营养而存在着
but they take some nourishment down from the databases,
但这是要收费的
but people put prices on them, stupid passwords and boring statistics.
还有愚蠢的密码和讨厌的统计表格(笑声
(Laughter)
掌声)
And this won’t work.
这个是行不通的
(Applause)
我们需要什么?
So what is needed? We have the databases.
数据库是现成的
It’s not the new database you need.
不需要新的数据库 我们有很好的视觉软件
We have wonderful design tools, and more and more are added up here.
还将有更多的问世 于是我们成立了
So we started a nonprofit venture which,
一个非营利机构 我们称之为“数据与图样的联结”-
linking data to design, we called Gapminder,
Gapminder
from the London Underground,
灵感来自伦敦地铁(他们提醒乘客“小心列车
where they warn you,”mind the gap.”
与站台间的缝隙”) 而且我们制作
So we thought Gapminder was appropriate.
了一个软件 把数据和图样联结起来
And we started to write software which could link the data like this.
这个并不难需要
And it wasn’t that difficult.
几个人花几年时间
It took some person years, and we have produced animations.
建立数据库后大家就能看到动画
You can take a data set and put it there.
我们正尝试解放联合国的数据库
We are liberating U.N. data, some few U.N. organization.
少数联合国机构和
Some countries accept
几个国家已经开放了数据库
that their databases can go out on the world,
但我们最需要的是数据搜索引擎 依靠搜索引擎
but what we really need is, of course, a search function.
我们先把原始数据
A search function where we can
复制成可搜索的格式
copy the data up to a searchable format
再把数据发布到全世界
and get it out in the world.
外界对这个设想的反应如何呢?
And what do we hear when we go around?
我尝试跟几个大型统计机构交涉
I’ve done anthropology on the main statistical units.
所有人都说这是不可能的
Everyone says,”It’s impossible. This can’t be done.
“这行不通 我们的信息很独特 不可能像其它
Our information is so peculiar in detail,
数据那样检索的出来 我们也不能免费
so that cannot be searched as others can be searched.
把数据开放 给全世界的学生们
We cannot give the data free to the students,
和企业部门使用 ” 但这正是我们
free to the entrepreneurs of the world.”
期望看到的 不是吗?
But this is what we would like to see, isn’t it?
下边是公众资助采集的数据
The publicly-funded data is down here.
我们希望互联网上长出美丽的花朵
And we would like flowers to grow out on the Net.
关键的一步 是让这些数据可被搜索到
And one of the crucial points is to make them searchable,
并借助软件实现动画的演示
and then people can use the different design tool to animate it there.
我有个很好的消息要告诉大家
And I have pretty good news for you.
新上任的联合国
I have good news that the present,
统计部门的领导 并没有说这是不可能的
new Head of U.N. Statistics, he doesn’t say it’s impossible.
他只说“我们不能这么做”
He only says,”We can’t do it.”
(笑声)
(Laughter)
他很聪明吧
And that’s a quite clever guy, huh?
(笑声)
(Laughter)
未来几年中 我们将会看到数据库的变化
So we can see a lot happening in data in the coming years.
我们会用全新的视角 来看收入的分配
We will be able to look at income distributions in completely new ways.
这是1970年中国的收入分配
This is the income distribution of China, 1970.
这是1970年美国的收入分配
This is the income distribution of the United States, 1970.
几乎没有重叠
Almost no overlap.
后来呢?
And what has happened?
中国在增长
What has happened is this:
再也不像以前那样平等了
that China is growing, it’s not so equal any longer,
它出现在右边
and it’s appearing here, overlooking the United States.
俯视着美国是不是像个鬼一样
Almost like a ghost, isn’t it?
(笑声)
(Laughter)
很吓人吧
It’s pretty scary.

(Laughter)
认为这些信息很重要
But I think it’s very important to have all this information.
大家很有必要
We need really to see it.
看到这些
And instead of looking at this,
另外我最后要给大家展示 每千人中的网民数量
I would like to end up by showing the Internet users per 1,000.
这个软件能让我们很容易的看到
In this software, we access about 500 variables
全球各国的近500个参数
from all the countries quite easily.
通过点击坐标轴
It takes some time to change for this,
你能轻易
but on the axises,
改变参数的设定
you can quite easily get any variable you would like to have.
我们的初衷是 数据免费下载且易于查找
And the thing would be to get up the databases free,
然后再点一下鼠标 数据就成为图表的形式
to get them searchable, and with a second click,
那样大家就可以 立刻看明白这些数据了
to get them into the graphic formats, where you can instantly understand them. Now,
统计学家们不喜欢这样子
statisticians don’t like it,
他们认为这不能准确地反映事实 传统的统计和
because they say that this will not show the reality;
分析方法是不能取代的
we have to have statistical, analytical methods.
但数据动画可以帮助提出假说
But this is hypothesis-generating.
最后我们看一下当今
I end now with the world. There,
的互联网世界
the Internet is coming.
网民数量不断向上攀升(X轴是)人均国民
The number of Internet users are going up like this.
生产总值
This is the GDP per capita.
互联网是一项新技术 但令人惊讶的是
And it’s a new technology coming in, but then amazingly,
它的普及和国家的经济水平
how well it fits to the economy of the countries.
极其一致 这也解释了100美元电脑的重要性
That’s why the $100 computer will be so important.
但这是很好的趋势
But it’s a nice tendency.
世界各国的差距将会缩小 不是吗
It’s as if the world is flattening off, isn’t it?
这些国家的互联网普及速度 超过了经济的发展速度
These countries are lifting more than the economy
我也希望大家都可以
and will be very interesting to follow this over the year,
自由使用公众资助采集的数据
as I would like you to be able to do
非常感谢!
with all the publicly funded data.
(掌声
Thank you very much.

(Applause)

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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hVimVzgtD6w

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