科技不会赢得战争 为什么美国要假装可行
SEAN MCFATE: War is getting sneakier.
肖恩·麦克法特：战争变得愈发出其不意
War is going underground.
战争在地下进行着
And we have to go underground with it.
我们也必须暗中计划
We have to fight in the shadows.
我们必须秘密作战
Otherwise, we will be left behind.
否则 我们就会落伍
So for example, you know, in this type of new environment,
例如 你知道 在这种新环境下
some of the best weapons do not fire bullets.
一些最好的武器甚至都派不上用场
In the old days, the old rules of war,
在过去 旧的战争规则中
when the Soviet Union wanted to arrest the West, wanted to sort of freak out NATO,
当苏联想要抑制西方国家 或者恐吓北约时
what it would do was hold a huge military exercise on the border of Germany, East and West Germany.
它就会在东西德的边境带举行大型军事演习
150,000 troops.
驻军15万人
And NATO and the United States wasn’t sure, like, well, is this an exercise
而北约和美国不确定这是一次演习
or could it be a real invasion?
还是真正的入侵？
And that would shake things up.
这会打破格局
But that’s the old days, the innocent days.
但那是曾经纯真的年代
Today, when Russia wants to shake up Europe,
今天 当俄罗斯想要动摇欧洲时
what they do is they weaponize refugees.
他们会把难民作为武器
They deliberately bomb civilian centers in Syria,
故意轰炸叙利亚的平民区
creating an avalanche of refugees into Europe, which creates Brexit,
造成大量难民涌入欧洲 从而导致英国脱欧
which creates the rise of right-wing national parties
这也促使了意图解散欧盟的
that want to disembowel the European Union.
极右翼民族政党的崛起
The Soviets wish they could do that, if they could only have done that.
尽管他们只会这样做 也正是苏联人想要看到的
So I think this is an example of how wars of the future will be fought.
所以我认为这是未来战争模式的一个典型例子
They will not even look like wars to the traditional mind,
从传统来看 这甚至都不像是战争
and a few heads will explode in the Pentagon,
却能让五角大楼里的人头痛不已
but that’s ok.
这不算什么
When people think of the threats that face our country today,
说到美国今天面临的挑战时
they think of Russia, China, terrorism, pandemics, et cetera.
人们会想到俄罗斯 中国 恐怖主义 流行病等等
But those are not the worst problems.
但这些还不是最糟糕的问题
The worst threat is systemic.
最严重的是系统性威胁
It’s growing entropy in the global system.
世界逐渐混乱无序
It’s persistent conflict.
冲突持久存在
It’s something I call durable disorder.
我称之为长期性无秩序
What durable disorder is and what durable disorder means
长期性无秩序指的是 也意味着
is that we have an emerging global system
我们新兴的全球体系
that can contain problems but not solve them.
存在问题而且尚未被解决
Meanwhile, we have this post 1945 idea of a liberal world order
同时 我们在1945年战后打造的自由国际秩序
that the US sort of champions and rules upon, but that world has gone away,
几乎是美国在主导和统治 但如今正在崩溃
and we’re not prepared for what follows next.
我们还没有准备好新的国际秩序
For the United States, the last successful war was World War II.
对美国来说 最近一次成功的战争是二战
We won decisively in 1945.
我们在1945年取得了决定性的胜利
The world ran on vacuum tubes,
世界随着真空管技术的成熟不断进步
yet the idea of conventional war is still the strategic paradigm of which
然而传统战争的思想还停留在
the Pentagon, the military, the modern national security establishment is built around,
建立五角大楼 军队和现代国家安全机构的战略模式
and this is dangerously wrong.
这是危险的错误做法
When you ask people to think about the future of war,
如果让人们思考战争的未来时
often what they tell you is something
往往他们说出的设想
that looks like World War II with better technology.
听起来就像配置了更先进技术的二战
But there is nothing more unconventional today than conventional war.
但是如今只不过在传统战争基础上不那么传统了而已
Nobody fights this way.
没有人会这样战斗
When people think about what warfare is
当人们想到战争时
they think of John Wayne or Saving Private Ryan,
他们想到的是约翰·韦恩和《拯救大兵瑞恩》
they think of killing more enemies, taking more territory,
他们想到的是杀死更多敌人 占领更多领土
and flying your flag over the enemy’s capital.
在敌军的首都插上本国的旗帜
They think of Berlin in ’45.
他们想到了1945年的柏林
They think of Japan’s surrender on the battleship, the USS Missouri.
想到了日本在密苏里号战舰上的投降
And then they wonder why there’s not a USS Missouri moment
然后他们会问对付塔利班和ISIS
against the Taliban, against ISIS.
却为什么没有像密苏里号战舰般的时刻
The reason is nobody fights this way of war anymore,
原因是没有人会再以这种方式战斗
yet we are mired in the past.
而我们却深陷过去
And as long as we’re mired in the past, and war has moved on,
只要我们还深陷过去 战争还在发展
we will be left behind.
我们就会被甩在后面
And even an undefeated military can lose.
哪怕是战无不胜的军队也会失败
If there’s one maxim for the last 70 years of war,
如果用一个准则概括过去70年的战争
it’s that technology is not decisive in warfare.
那就是科技在战争中不是决定性的
If you look at big, powerful, technologically advanced militaries go up against
如果你看到强大 科技发达的军队对抗
low-level Luddites who confound them.
让他们困惑的低级勒德分子
You know, whether it’s the Mujahideen in Afghanistan against the Soviets,
你知道 不管是阿富汗的圣战者对抗苏联
or America fighting in Vietnam against the North Vietnamese, et cetera,
还是美国在越南对抗北越 等等
Iraq and Afghanistan, this is, without question,
伊拉克和阿富汗 毫无疑问
the one thing we should all agree on.
这是我们都应该赞同的一个准则
Yet for some reason, people think we need to double down
然而出于某些原因 人们认为我们需要加倍投资
and invest in technology for warfare.
用于战争的科技
In fact, for most people, they can’t even imagine the future of war without high tech.
实际上 大多数人根本无法想象没有高科技加持的未来的战争
Such is the bias that we have for it.
这就是我们的偏见
But this is the definition of insanity,
但这还是精神错乱的症状
doing the same thing again and again and expecting a different result.
重复做着同样的事情却期待着不同的结果
For example, take the F-35 fighter jet.
以F-35战斗机为例
You know, we have not fought, we have not had a strategic dogfight
你知道 自从朝鲜战争以来 我们还没有打过
Sice the Korean War
一场战略空战
So why do we need more fighter jets?
那么 我们为什么需要更多的战斗机呢？
I do not know.
我不知道
We already have the best fighter jets.
我们已经拥有最好的战斗机了
And the F-16, the F-15, and the F-18.
还有F-16 F-15和F-18
So why do we need the F-35?
所以为什么我们还需要F-35？
And what’s even more amazing is that
更惊人的是
we have spent more on this small airplane than any other weapon in history.
我们在这架小飞机上的花费比在历史上任何其他武器上都要多
We’ve spent $1.5 trillion on the F-35.
我们已经在F-35上花费了1.5万亿美元
That’s more than Russia’s GDP.
这比俄罗斯的国内生产总值还多
If the F-35 were a country, its GDP would be in the top 15 of the world.
如果F-35是一个国家 它的GDP将排在世界前15名
And amazingly, it has flown zero combat missions in two long wars.
更震惊的是 它在两场持久战中没有执行过任务
And we’re buying more of them.
而我们还在购置更多这样的战斗机
Right?
对吗？
So the idea of putting our faith in technology is ludicrous.
所以把我们的信心寄托在技术上是不合理的
It is absolute ludicrous.
是非常荒谬的
A lot of people think that the future will belong to AI, artificial intelligence,
很多人认为未来将属于人工智能
and cyber and cyber war.
以及网络和网络战争
But the truth is, if you ask 11 people —
但事实是 如果你问11个人
well, 10 or 12 experts on what cyber war is,
10或12个专家：网络战争是什么
you’ll get 20 different answers.
你会得到20个不同的答案
All cyber people can agree on is ones and zeros and space.
所有网民都认可的是零一指令和空间
You know, they always come up with these fantastical things.
你知道 他们总是会异想天开
Oh, the power grid for the East Coast can come down.
比如 东海岸的电网会掉下来
You know, and Hollywood depicts this in James Bond movies.
你懂的 好莱坞在邦德系列电影中就有这样的场景
But in reality, cyber, all cyber does, it allows us to do old things in new ways.
但在现实中 所有的信息技术只是让我们用新工具做老套的事
Old things like espionage, theft, propaganda, and sabotage.
像间谍活动 盗用 政治宣传和破坏活动这些
There’s nothing new about it.
没什么新鲜的
I mean, it’s not a new way of war,
我的意思是 这不是一种新的战争手段
it just allows us to do old things in new ways.
只是在新瓶装旧酒
So technology is not the savior that most futurists pretend it is when it comes to warfare.
因此 科技并不是众多未来学家扬言的战争的“救世主”