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西方姓氏数目为何会逐渐减少?

Surname Extinction: When will we all be "Smiths"?

When you marry,
结婚后
usually you take on your partner’s surname
通常你会随伴侣的姓氏
or your parter takes on yours.
或对方随你的姓
Two people with different surnames become
两个不同姓氏的人
two people with the same.
因而拥有了相同的姓氏
One surname spreads, the other one goes… …extinct?
一种姓氏得到延续 另一种会走向……灭亡么?
Usually not, there might be siblings, cousins,
通常不会 因为可能有同姓的兄弟姐妹 堂兄弟姐妹
strangers who happen to share the surname to
还有碰巧同姓的陌生人
carry it on for the one who lost it
替改变姓氏的人把原来的姓氏传递下去
But if one person fails to pass on the surname,
但如果一个人没能将姓氏传递下去
so might the others.
那么其他人也有失败的可能
In fact, every now and then
事实上 当一个姓氏的最后一人离世
entire surnames do go extinct
而未能将其传下去时
when its last bearer passes away without passing it on.
这个姓氏就消失了 这一情况时有发生
According to the Daily Mail,
《每日邮报》报道
in England and Wales, 200,000 surnames
自1901年起 在英格兰和威尔士
were lost since 1901.
已经有20万姓氏消失了
You can find lists of endangered surnames
你可以在一些网站上找到濒危姓氏的名单
on websites such as Ancestry.com and myheritage.com
例如 Ancestry和myheritage
Ancestry counts surnames with less than 50 carriers left as endangered,
Ancestry将少于50人的姓氏列为濒危姓氏
which in England and Wales, would currently be names such as
在英国和威尔士 这些濒危姓氏有
Pober, Mirren, Febland (heh, Febland), Nighy – N-Nighy?
Pober Mirren Febland Nighy
Well, some of these names might be more of those than others,
虽然其中有些姓氏的人数可能相对多些
it’s sad to think that they might all cease to exist within a few generations.
但遗憾的是它们都可能在几代人后消失
Back in the days, new surnames were created as well
在以前 人们会根据
based on someone’s job or father’s given name
某人的工作或父亲的名字
or where they came from.
还有籍贯创造新的姓氏
But that doesn’t really happen anymore,
但那些情况已经不太会发生了
not on a large scale, anyway.
至少不会大规模发生
So more surnames are lost than new ones are being born.
所以消失的姓氏远比新产生的多
Keep this experiment going long enough,
如果这种情况持续时间够长
and we will all end up with the same surname eventually, won’t we?
我们最后将变成同一个姓氏 不是吗?
When we look at Earth’s more ancient civilizations
当我们探究地球的古代文明
even more ancient-
甚至更远古的文明
intensive research reveals that
深入研究表明
most Chinese surnames in use today
现今使用的大多数中国姓氏
were handed down from thousands of years ago.
是几千年前传下来的
While historically about 12,000 Chinese surnames have been recorded,
历史上记载了约12000种中国姓氏
only a bit over 3,000 are currently in use,
而目前仍在使用的却只有3000出头
it reduction of 75 percent!
减少了75%
And only a fraction of those
所有人口中 大多数人
are taking over a majority of the entire population.
只会使用一小部分姓氏
The three most common surnames in mainland China are Li, Wang and Zhang,
中国大陆的三个大姓分别是 李 王 张
which make up for more than 7 percent of the Chinese population each.
每个姓氏的使用人数都超过中国人口的7%
Together they belong to close to 300 million people
总数近30亿
and are easily the most common surnames in the world.
它们无疑是世界上最普遍的姓氏
In China, the phrase”three Zhang, four Li” is used to say just”anybody.”
在中国 “张三李四”被用来泛指“某人”
So after thousands of years,
即使历经几千年
the Chinese people aren’t down to one all-dominating surname, but several.
中国人的姓氏并没有被一个大姓所占 而是几个
What’s going on here?
这是为什么呢?
This effect can be shown in a simulation.
这种现象可以通过模拟来展示
What you see here is the result of a Galton-Watson process,
这里看到的是高尔顿-沃森过程的结果
which maps out how the distribution of family names changes over time.
这里绘制出了姓氏分布如何随时间而变化
It starts out with a very large number of unique family names
这个模拟从大量独一无二的姓氏开始
each represented by a different color,
每个姓氏用不同颜色代表
and after 40 generations or around a thousand years
在40代或大约一千年后
ends with the ones which are left.
以剩余的姓氏结束
When you look at the very end there,
看到最后
what you see is very similar to the Chinese situation.
你会发现和中国非常相似的情况
The top three names take over 20 percent of the cake.
排名前三的姓氏总占比超过总人口的20%
But the question is: if we keep the simulation going,
那么问题来了 如果我们继续模拟下去
will we end up with only one surname?
我们最终会只剩下一个姓氏吗?
Mathematically, the entire population does converge to only one surname.
数学计算角度上 所有人终将会变成同一姓氏
But in real life,
但在现实生活中
if we start out with, say,10,000 surnames
假设我们最开始有10000个姓氏
and there are actually much more than that
其实远不止这些
after 40 generations we’d still be left with over 400.
那么40代之后还会剩下400多个
Okay, how about 200 generations?
好 那么200代以后呢?
Still 93 left.
还有93个
While the less frequent names are dying out quickly,
虽然不常见姓氏快速消失
the more frequent ones become so widely spread
但其他较常见的姓氏流传地如此广泛
that humans will probably cease to exist before they do.
还没等到它们消失 人类可能已经不复存在了
The probability of extinction of a unique family name
仅由一对年轻夫妇拥有的特殊姓氏
that is carried by only one young couple is 45 percent
消亡的可能性是45%
at least in the West
至少在西方是这样
That’s the average likelihood of them having no children
这个比例是他们没有孩子
or only children who won’t pass on the family name.
或者他们的孩子没有把家族姓氏传下去的平均概率
But the likelihood of a family name which is held by multiple couples
但是由多对夫妻共同拥有的姓氏
going extinct within one generation is 45% to the power of the number of couples.
在一代之内消失的概率是45%的n次方(n=夫妻数量)
So with a few more people sharing a surname
所以有多人使用的姓氏
it becomes very unlikely very quickly that this surname should disappear soon.
是非常不可能在短时间内迅速消失的
If you want to know how often your family name is currently in use,
如果你想知道自己的姓氏如今有多少人使用
you can find that out on websites such as Forebears.
可以在类似Forebears的网站上查找
According to the US census bureau
据美国人口普查局数据可知
the most common family names in the US are currently
美国人如今使用最普遍的姓氏是
Smith, Johnson, and Williams,
Smith Johnson 还有Williams
which together make up for around 2 percent of the entire US population.
它们加起来约占美国人口总数的2%
That’s, of course, not very impressive to China.
当然 相对中国来说这个比例并不是很大
In a way, you could say that on this timeline,
某种程度上 你可以说在这个时间轴上
the US is somewhere here while China is already over there.
美国还在这儿 中国就已到那儿了
As fewer family names become more widely spread,
随着姓氏数目变少而拥有这些姓氏的人变多
we might follow the Chinese feat
或许我们会跟上中国的脚步
and become more creative about given names.
并在取名上更具创造力
So instead of Tim Smith, you might be called the TalentedPeaceful Smith.
你可以叫TalentedPeaceful Smith 而不是叫Tim Smith
And, instead of Tom, I might be called The Rest of Us.
我可以叫The Rest of Us 而不是Tom

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视频概述

西方姓氏数目为何会逐渐减少?是由什么原因造成的?

听录译者

收集自网络

翻译译者

晓晓

审核员

审核员LJ

视频来源

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5p-Jdjo7sSQ

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