ADM-201 dump PMP dumps pdf SSCP exam materials CBAP exam sample questions

你该相信多数人的判断吗? – 译学馆
未登陆,请登陆后再发表信息
最新评论 (0)
播放视频

你该相信多数人的判断吗?

Should you trust unanimous decisions? - Derek Abbott

设想一队警察在10位因目睹银行劫犯
Imagine a police lineup where ten witnesses
逃离犯罪现场
are asked to identify a bank robber
而被要求辨认对方的目击证人面前
they glimpsed fleeing the crime scene.
如果他们中有6个人都指证同一个人
If six of them pick out the same person,
很有可能那个人就真的是犯人
there’s a good chance that’s the real culprit,
而且如果10个人都选同一个人
and if all ten make the same choice,
你可能就觉得抓到犯人是板上钉钉的事了
you might think the case is rock solid,
但是你可能错了
but you’d be wrong.
对大多数人 这听起来太奇怪了
For most of us, this sounds pretty strange.
毕竟 我们社会大部分都有赖于多数票决和一致性
After all, much of our society relies on majority vote and consensus,
无论是政治 经济 还是娱乐
whether it’s politics, business, or entertainment.
所以我们自然就觉得 少数服从多数是好事
So it’s natural to think that more consensus is a good thing.
从某一个点来说 通常情况的确如此
And up until a certain point, it usually is.
但有时 越多的人达成一致
But sometimes, the closer you start to get to total agreement,
产生的结果就越不可信
the less reliable the result becomes.
这就叫做“一致性悖论”
This is called the paradox of unanimity.
理解这种明显的悖论的关键在于
The key to understanding this apparent paradox
要考虑不同程度的不确定性
is in considering the overall level of uncertainty
以及你所处理事情的不同类型
involved in the type of situation you’re dealing with.
例如 如果我们要求目击者挑出这一排当中的苹果
If we asked witnesses to identify the apple in this lineup, for example,
我们并不会因得到一致性的结果而感到惊讶
we shouldn’t be surprised by a unanimous verdict.
但有些事 我们有理由期待一些自然的分歧
But in cases where we have reason to expect some natural variance,
我们也应该期待各种可能的结果
we should also expect varied distribution.
如果你抛100次硬币
If you toss a coin one hundred times,
你会期待有50次左右得到头像那面
you would expect to get heads somewhere around 50% of the time.
但如果投掷的结果变成100%是头像那面
But if your results started to approach 100% heads,
你就会怀疑有些事不对劲
you’d suspect that something was wrong,
这跟你自己扔的无关
not with your individual flips,
而是取决于硬币本身
but with the coin itself.
当然 识别嫌疑人的指认并不像抛硬币那样随意
Of course, suspect identifications aren’t as random as coin tosses,
但也不像从一堆香蕉中辨认苹果那样简单
but they’re not as clear cut as telling apples from bananas, either.
事实上 一项针对1994位目击者的研究发现
In fact, a 1994 study found that up to 48% of witnesses
多达48%的人可能在一排嫌疑人中指认错误
tend to pick the wrong person out of a lineup,
甚至在他们中很多人对自己选择很自信的时候
even when many are confident in their choice.
基于惊鸿一瞥的记忆不可靠
Memory based on short glimpses can be unreliable,
而且我们总是高估自己的准确性
and we often overestimate our own accuracy.
了解到这点 一致性的指认开始不太像确定无疑的罪责了
Knowing all this, a unanimous identification starts to seem less like certain guilt,
更像是系统误差
and more like a systemic error,
或是队列当中的偏见
or bias in the lineup.
实际上 系统性误差并不单单出现在人们的判断中
And systemic errors don’t just appear in matters of human judgement.
从1993年到2008年
From 1993-2008,
欧洲许多犯罪现场都发现了相同的女性DNA
the same female DNA was found in multiple crime scenes around Europe,
人们称这位神秘的杀手为“海尔布隆幽灵”
incriminating an elusive killer dubbed the Phantom of Heilbronn.
但DNA证据精确地一致 因为它是错的
But the DNA evidence was so consistent precisely because it was wrong.
表明用于收集DNA样本的棉签
It turned out that the cotton swabs used to collect the DNA samples
不小心被在棉签工厂工作的一名女工污染了
had all been accidentally contaminated by a woman working in the swab factory.
在其他情况下 故意欺骗也会产生系统误差
In other cases, systematic errors arise through deliberate fraud,
就像2002年萨达姆•侯赛因举行的总统公投
like the presidential referendum held by Saddam Hussein in 2002,
声称对他下一届的七年任期
which claimed a turnout of 100% of voters with all 100% supposedly voting in favor
选民100%的赞成支持
of another seven-year term.
从这个方面看
When you look at it this way,
一致性悖论其实并不总是相悖的
the paradox of unanimity isn’t actually all that paradoxical.
一致同意仍然只是空想
Unanimous agreement is still theoretically ideal,
特别是对变数和不确定性没什么期待时
especially in cases when you’d expect very low odds of variability and uncertainty,
但实际上 在完全一致的情形下做到这点不太可能
but in practice, achieving it in situations where perfect agreement is highly unlikely
这也告诉我们有些隐藏的因素在影响着整个系统
should tell us that there’s probably some hidden factor affecting the system.
尽管我们一直朝着和谐 一致的方向努力
Although we may strive for harmony and consensus,
很多情况下 是应该允许存在错误和分歧的
in many situations, error and disagreement should be naturally expected.
若结果看上去太好以至于不像真的
And if a perfect result seems too good to be true,
那它可能就是真的
it probably is.

发表评论

译制信息
视频概述

一致性的结果未必可信,有时候分歧和错误的存在或许更加真实。

听录译者

收集自网络

翻译译者

喋喋

审核员

审核团V

视频来源

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=heCSbA8w57A

相关推荐