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应该投资黄金吗? – 译学馆
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应该投资黄金吗?

Should I Invest in Gold?

The quest for gold is long, storied, and bloody.
寻金旅是漫长 传奇而血腥
So much of the human story–the expansion of empires,
帝国的扩张 整个文明的毁灭
the destruction of entire cultures –has hinged on the desire
这些人类史都由一种欲望催动
to get more of this mysterious yellow metal.
即获取神秘黄金 多多益善
But that’s actually kinda weird when you think about it.
但仔细想想其实有点奇怪
Unlike most assets, gold doesn’t offer any real-world value like,
与公司 谷物等大多数资产不同
say, a business or a handful of grain.
黄金没有任何现实价值
As Warren Buffet puts it,
正如沃伦·巴菲特所说
“It doesn’t do anything but sit there and look at you.”
“黄金两手一甩 作壁上观”
John Maynard Keyens even referred to gold’s connection to currency as a “barbarous relic”
约翰·梅纳德·凯恩斯甚至将金本位称为“野蛮的遗迹”
…so if that’s true,
如果事实确实如此
why am I hearing constant ads from gold brokers on the radio almost 100 years later?
那么为什么近100年后的我还会不断听到黄金经理的广播呢?
Should we be making space for it in our portfolios
我们是应该在投资组合中加入黄金呢
or are we being sold a bunch of fools gold?
还是把这些没有灵魂的家伙卖掉?
两分钱
Gold and humanity go way way back.
黄金和人类的历史源远流长
From Egyptian funerary masks to Celtic ruins,
从埃及葬礼面具到凯尔特遗址
Peruvian temples to ancient Chinese tombs,
从秘鲁寺庙到中国古墓
evidence of our love of gold is found in practically every corner of the globe.
我们热爱黄金的证据 几乎无处不见
Throughout this long history,
在漫长的人类史中
it’s main purpose has always been for decoration.
黄金的主要用途一直是装饰
Even today most of the gold consumed each year is for jewelry
即使现在 每年消耗的大部分黄金都用在珠宝上
which makes sense because gold is well…“SHINY!”
毕竟黄金能够“闪闪发光”
That beautiful golden hue
黄金之所以呈现美丽的金色
is thanks to the fact that it absorbs more blue light
是由于它能吸收的蓝色光波
than any other visible wavelength of light
比其它颜色的可见光波要更多
and since blue is complementary to yellow,
由于蓝色是黄色的互补色
that’s what we see.
所以我们看到的黄金会闪闪发光
Marketers have long taken advantage of the fact that
人们会将黄色和幸福 明亮 希望联系起来
yellow is the color we associate with happiness, brightness and possibility.
营销人员长期以来一直利用这一点
It also has some important industrial uses.
黄金还有一些重要的工业用途
Gold reflects most of the solar radiation in space
它能反射太空中的大部分太阳辐射
which is why you can find it in the helmets of astronauts and their equiment.
所以宇航员的头盔和装备中含有黄金
It has a variety of medical uses.
黄金还有很多医学用途
And trace amounts of gold are found in millions of cell phones around the world.
而且全世界数百万部手机的制造都用了微量黄金
But industrial use is one of the smallest pieces of the gold consumption pie hovering around 10%.
但是黄金的工业用途只占黄金消费的一小部分 大约是10%左右
After jewelry, its main use is as a financial tool,
除了珠宝 它的主要用途是作为金融工具
because it seems more reliable than wildly fluctuating stock markets,
因为它似乎比波动剧烈的股票市场更可靠
or fiat currencies that can be devalued on the whims of the government.
比根据政府意愿贬值的法定货币更可靠
Gold is traditionally accepted as a popular hedge against a crisis
黄金历来被当成受欢迎的危机对冲工具
– and you can often see the price jump when fears are running high.
人心惶惶时经常可以看到黄金价格的跃升
The Great Recession drove gold prices to all-time highs over a few short years.
大萧条在短短几年内将金价推至历史高点
And since the COVID19 outbreak began,
而且自新冠肺炎爆发以来
the price of gold has been steadily climbing.
金价一直在稳步攀升
Despite the fact that it doesn’t pay any dividends
尽管黄金无股息
and can’t be usefully consumed like, say, oil or timber,
也不像石油或木材一样被有效消费
gold can be a profitable investment.
但它可以成为一项有利可图的投资
National emergencies like the one we’re in right now
像我们国家现在所处的紧急情况
can make self-described gold-bugs look really smart all of a sudden.
一下子让这些“金甲虫”变得可爱起来
Over the last 15 years, gold has increased in value 278%
在过去的15年里黄金增值了278%
— compared to the Dow Jones Industrial Average which grew only 173%..
而道琼斯工业指数增加了173%
This is why gold-brokers run ads
这就是为什么黄金经理会发广告
framing gold as a safe, historic investment for the long-term,
一边把黄金说成安全的历史性的长期投资
while stoking fears of out-of-control governments and societal collapse.
一边激起人们对政府失控和社会崩溃的恐惧
But is it the best long-term choice for growing your wealth?
但它是理财的最佳长期选择吗?
Probably not.
可能不是
If we expanded the amount of time we looked back to 30 years instead of 15,
如果我们回溯30年 而非15年
gold’s growth is still hovering right at the 280% mark.
黄金增长了280%
The DJI on the other hand has posted 839% growth since 1990.
另一方面自1990年起道琼斯工业指数增长了839%
But what if we compared it to something else like bonds?
但是如果我们把它和债券之类的东西比较一下呢?
Well, going back to the 1920’s investment-
说起1920年的投资级公司债券
grade corporate bonds have had an average annual rate of return of around 5.25%.
其平均年收益率约为5.25%
That would mean in that same 30 year time-frame
这意味着同样是30年期限
even investment grade bonds would have outperformed gold two to one.
投资级别债券的收益是黄金的两倍
Many investors frame gold as a perfect hedge for inflation.
许多投资者把黄金框定为完美的通胀对冲工具
This is because even though the supply of US dollars goes up,
这是因为 即使美元的发行量上升
the amount of gold remains relatively the same.
黄金的数量仍然相对不变
But that argument is sometimes lacking the context of timeframe.
但有时候这种说法缺乏时间检验
If expressed in gold,
如果换算成黄金
the salary of a Roman soldier is really similar to the military pay in the US today.
那今天美国军人工资和罗马士兵工资真的差不多
But in the late 1980’s
但是在1980年代后期
when inflation went from 1% to an eye-watering 6%,
通货膨胀率从1%上升到惨不忍睹的6%时
gold prices sagged.
金价下跌了
Goes to show you that time-frame is really important
这说明在评估投资风险时
when evaluating the appropriateness of an investment.
时间框架真的很重要
Alright, but what about safety?
好吧 那投资黄金安全吗?
Surely gold isn’t as wild and chaotic as the stock market,
黄金肯定不像股市那样狂野和混乱
that’s the whole appeal, right?
这就是它的全部吸引力 对吧?
Uh, wrong.
呃 不对
As a matter of fact,
事实上
there’s a strong case to be made that gold can be much MORE risky than the stock market.
有充分的理由表明 黄金的风险大于股市
That’s because of volatility.
那是因为波动性
Think of it like waves on the ocean.
把它想象成大海上的波浪
A stormy sea has high volatility with big waves and toughs.
波涛汹涌的海面大风大浪 反复无常
A calm sea is less volatile.
平静的大海波动较小
Standard deviation is one way we measure
我们可以用标准差
the amount of volatility that an investment has experienced in the past.
来衡量过去投资经历的波动性
The higher the standard deviation, the riskier the investment.
标准差越高 投资风险越大
And since 1975,
自1975年以来
gold’s standard deviation has actually been about 50 percent greater than stocks!
黄金的标准差实际上比股票大50%左右
So we’re talking about an investment that over the long haul performs worse than stocks but has higher risk.
所以长期来看 黄金的表现不如股票 风险更高
Am I missing something here?
我是不是错过了什么?
Kind of.
好像是
Pairing assets that move differently from one another is key to having a diversified portfolio.
多元化投资组合的关键是不把鸡蛋放在一个篮子里
Every type of investment–
每一种投资——
be it a stock, bond, piece of real estate or bar of gold comes
无论是股票 债券 房地产还是金条
with itsown unique set of risk-factors that can affect its value.
都有可以影响其价值的独特风险因素
So by having different types of investments,
所以通过持有不同类型的投资
you can effectively reduce your overall exposure to risk.
可以有效降低整体投资风险
The fact that its value doesn’t directly correlate with the movement of stocks, bonds or real estate
黄金的价值与股票 债券或房地产的走势没有直接关系
makes it a unique flavor in the investing world.
这使它成为投资界的清流
We should also point out that there are MANY ways of investing in gold.
另外 我们应该指出 投资黄金的方式有很多种
You can buy it in the form of coins or bullion,
你可以以硬币或金条的形式购买
but dealers have markups
但经销商要赚差价
and then there’s the cost of having to store it safely to protect it from theft or loss.
而且还有安全储存的费用 以防止黄金被盗或丢失
Many gold investors opt for ETFs that have gold as their primary asset.
许多黄金投资者选择黄金占比多的ETFs
You can even find mutual funds that own shares in mining companies.
你甚至会发现拥有矿业公司股份的共同基金
Just know that you’re probably going to be exposed to
需要知道的是 如果你这样做
the risk of other precious metals like silver or copper if you go those routes.
就很可能会遇到银 铜等其它贵金属有的风险
If you’ve been following us for a while
如果你已经关注我们一段时间了
you know that seemingly simple questions like “should I invest in gold?”
你就知道那些看似简单的问题却有复杂的答案
do not have simple answers.
比如“我应该投资黄金吗”
Dismissing it as a hair-brained fixture of doomsday preppers isn’t entirely fair,
把它看作末日求生者的病急乱投医有失公允
but neither is it the slam-dunk inflation-hedge that gold bugs make it out to be.
但黄金也并非投资者们所认为的通胀对冲工具
The mystery and allure surrounding gold is part of what drives our need for it.
黄金的神秘和诱惑力是驱动黄金需求的部分原因
It may not be a great builder of wealth,
黄金可能不是完美的理财工具
but its ability to preserve and maintain value over the centuries has made it a remarkable tool.
但几个世纪以来 它保值增值的能力已经很了不起了
So keeping your eye on the facts instead of the hype,
所以要认清现实 不要炒黄金
will keep you from getting caught up in the gold-rush.
这样才不会陷入淘金热
And that’s our two cents!
这里是“两分钱”
Thanks to our patrons for keeping Two Cents financially healthy!
感谢粉丝对“两分钱”的赞助
Click the link in the description to become a Two Cents patron.
点击简介中的链接 成为两分钱的赞助人吧

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视频概述

关于黄金的一些误解及投资黄金的风险评估

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视频来源

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sB5ezRjQPk8

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