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怎样让高速发展的城市免于陨落 – 译学馆
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怎样让高速发展的城市免于陨落

Robert Muggah: How to protect fast-growing cities from failing

我们可以在未来三十年内
We can cut violent deaths around the world
将全球暴力性死亡率减半
by 50 percent in the next three decades.
我们只需将谋杀犯罪率 每年降低2.3%
All we have to do is drop killing by 2.3 percent a year,
并且我们可以做到
and we’ll hit that target.
你不信我?
You don’t believe me?
世界各地顶尖的流行病学家和犯罪学家
Well, the leading epidemiologists and criminologists around the world
似乎认为我们做得到 我也认为做得到
seem to think we can, and so do I,
但前提是我们关注城市 特别是最为脆弱的城市
but only if we focus on our cities, especially the most fragile ones.
这是我一直关注的问题
You see, I’ve been thinking about this a lot.
二十年来 我工作所处的国家和城市
For the last 20 years, I’ve been working
都充斥着冲突、
in countries and cities ripped apart by conflict,
暴力、恐怖主义 或者样样皆由
violence, terrorism, or some insidious combination of all.
我曾经跟踪枪械走私分子 从俄罗斯跟踪到索马里
I’ve tracked gun smugglers from Russia to Somalia,
我曾经与阿富汗和刚果的军阀合作
I’ve worked with warlords in Afghanistan and the Congo,
我曾在哥伦比亚、海地、斯里兰卡、 巴布亚新几内亚 清点尸体数量
I’ve counted cadavers in Colombia, in Haiti, in Sri Lanka, in Papua New Guinea.
话虽如此 你不需要身处战争前线
You don’t need to be on the front line, though,
才感觉到我们的星球正失去控制
to get a sense that our planet is spinning out of control, right?
是吧?大家明显都感觉到 国际动荡是新常态
There’s this feeling that international instability is the new normal.
但我希望大家深入观察
But I want you to take a closer look,
就会看到暴力的地理面貌正在改变
and I think you’ll see that the geography of violence is changing,
因为被冲突和犯罪操控的 不是我们的国家
because it’s not so much our nation states that are gripped by conflict and crime
而是城市:阿勒颇、巴马科、加拉加斯、 埃尔比勒、摩苏尔、的黎波里、
as our cities: Aleppo, Bamako, Caracas, Erbil, Mosul, Tripoli, Salvador.
萨尔瓦多暴力正向大都市迁移
Violence is migrating to the metropole.
也许这是预料之中的事
And maybe this is to be expected, right?
对吧?毕竟目前大部分人居住在城市
After all, most people today, they live in cities, not the countryside.
而不是农村600个城市 包括30个大城市 就占了全球GDP的三分之二
Just 600 cities, including 30 megacities, account for two thirds of global GDP.
但说到城市
But when it comes to cities,
话题大都由北部地区主导
the conversation is dominated by the North,
所谓北部地区 是指北美、西欧、
that is, North America, Western Europe, Australia and Japan,
澳洲和日本这些地区的暴力率 处于历史新低点因此
where violence is actually at historic lows.
城市的热衷者聊的是
As a result, city enthusiasts, they talk about the triumph of the city,
城市的胜利、创新阶级的胜利、 说市长们会统治世界
of the creative classes, and the mayors that will rule the world.
我希望某天市长真会统治世界但是
Now, I hope that mayors do one day rule the world,
事实是
but, you know, the fact is,
我们没有真正地听到 南部地区的声音和形势
we don’t hear any conversation, really, about what is happening in the South.
所谓南部地区 我是指 拉丁美洲、非洲、
And by South, I mean Latin America, Africa, Asia,
亚洲在这些地方 暴力不断加剧
where violence in some cases is accelerating,
基础设施捉襟见肘
where infrastructure is overstretched,
有时政府管理不过是理想
and where governance is sometimes an aspiration and not a reality.
难成现实目前 一些外交官、 发展专家、专业人士在关注
Now, some diplomats and development experts and specialists,
会决定21世纪安全的 四五十个脆弱城市
they talk about 40 to 50 fragile states
会决定21世纪安全的 四五十个脆弱城市我认为
that will shape security in the 21st century.
这些脆弱城市 会直接决定未来的秩序和稳定
I think it’s fragile cities which will define the future of order and disorder.
因为战争和人道主义行动
That’s because warfare and humanitarian action
将会集中发生在我们的城市
are going to be concentrated in our cities,
为发展而起的斗争
and the fight for development,
无论是消灭贫穷、
whether you define that as eradicating poverty,
普及医疗保健、还是击退气候变化
universal healthcare, beating back climate change,
成败关键都在于城市中的 破屋、残楼、
will be won or lost in the shantytowns, slums and favelas of our cities.
贫民窟我想向大家介绍
I want to talk to you about four megarisks
定义现时代脆弱性的四大危机
that I think will define fragility in our time,
倘若我们能够处理这些危机
and if we can get to grips with these,
我们就可以解决致命暴力问题
I think we can do something with that lethal violence problem.
那么我们先由积极的谈起事实是
So let me start with some good news.
我们现今生活在 人类历史上最和平的年代
Fact is, we’re living in the most peaceful moment in human history.
司提芬•朋克和其他人表明 现今冲突的强度和频率
Steven Pinker and others have shown how the intensity and frequency of conflict
是处于一个怎样的历史低点目前
is actually at an all-time low.
加沙、叙利亚、苏丹、
Now, Gaza, Syria, Sudan, Ukraine,
乌克兰这些国家的冲突可怕恐怖
as ghastly as these conflicts are, and they are horrific,
在暴力持续下降50年之后
they represent a relatively small blip upwards
这只是一个相对较小的往上攀升的点此外
in a 50-year-long secular decline.
我们注意到凶杀案大大减少
What’s more, we’re seeing a dramatic reduction in homicide.
曼纽尔•艾斯纳和其他人发现
Manuel Eisner and others have shown
凶杀案下降到令人难以置信的 数百年来的低点
that for centuries, we’ve seen this incredible drop in murder,
特别是在西方地区
especially in the West.
现今大部分的北部城市 比一百年前安全一百倍
Most Northern cities today are 100 times safer than they were just 100 years ago.
武装冲突减少了 谋杀犯罪减少了
These two facts — the decline in armed conflict and the decline in murder —
这是最为了不起的事实
are amongst the most extraordinary,
若是旷古未有 亦是人类历史的成就
if unheralded, accomplishments of human history,
我们应该为此感到兴奋
and we should be really excited, right?
对吧?没错
Well, yeah, we should.
我们应该只是有一个问题: 这两个祸害还是跟着我们大家看
There’s just one problem: These two scourges are still with us.
每年有52.5万人
You see, 525,000 people — men, women, boys and girls —
无论男女老少
die violently every single year.
死于暴力我、基思•克劳斯和其他人 在做的一个研究表明
Research I’ve been doing with Keith Krause and others
5到6万人死于战区暴力
has shown that between 50,000 and 60,000 people are dying in war zones violently.
其余大约50万人死于冲突区域之外
The rest, almost 500,000 people, are dying outside of conflict zones.
换而言之 非战争暴力致死的人数 是战争致死的十倍此外
In other words, 10 times more people are dying outside of war than inside war.
暴力正往南部地区迁移
What’s more, violence is moving south,
移往拉丁美洲、加勒比海地区
to Latin America and the Caribbean,
移往部分中非和南非地区
to parts of Central and Southern Africa,
移往部分中东和中亚地区
and to bits of the Middle East and Central Asia.
世界上50个最危险的城市当中
Forty of the 50 most dangerous cities in the world
有40个就在拉丁美洲
are right here in Latin America,
13个在巴西
13 in Brazil,
当中最最危险的 是圣佩德罗苏拉 洪都拉斯第二大城市
and the most dangerous of all, it’s San Pedro Sula, Honduras’ second city,
每10万人中就有187人被谋杀 凶杀率实为惊人
with a staggering homicide rate of 187 murders per 100,000 people.
是世界平均值的23倍
That’s 23 times the global average.
如果暴力正在重新定位
Now, if violence is re-concentrating geographically,
它亦正按世界新地形重新定形
it’s also being reconfigured to the world’s new topography,
因为对于城市来说 地球不是平的
because when it comes to cities, the world ain’t flat,
像托马斯•弗里德曼常说
like Thomas Friedman likes to say.
世界尖锐棘手的很
It’s spiky.
城市主导城市生活主要方式
The dominance of the city as the primary mode of urban living
是历史上最不寻常的人口结构逆转之一
is one of the most extraordinary demographic reversals in history,
而发生得惊人之快
and it all happened so fast.
大家都知道这些数字
You all know the figures, right?
对吧?现今世界人口73亿人;
There’s 7.3 billion people in the world today;
2050年将会有96亿人
there will be 9.6 billion by 2050.
但大家想想这一个现实:
But consider this one fact:
在18世纪 每三十个人中 就有一个人住在城市
In the 1800s, one in 30 people lived in cities,
今天是每两个人有一个人住城市
today it’s one in two,
将来基本每个人都住在城市
and tomorrow virtually everyone is going to be there.
城市化的扩张 既不会平坦
And this expansion in urbanization is going to be neither even nor equitable.
也不会公平90%的城市变迁扩张
The vast majority, 90 percent,
会发生在南部地区 在南部的城市
will be happening in the South, in cities of the South.
城市地理学家 和人口学家告诉我们
So urban geographers and demographers,
一个城市的大小或密度
they tell us that it’s not necessarily the size or even the density of cities
不一定会造成暴力
that predicts violence, no.
东京有3千5百万人口
Tokyo, with 35 million people,
是世界上最大的大都市之一 也被认为是最安全的大都市之一
is one of the largest, and some might say safest, urban metropolises in the world.
与暴力相关的不是大小或密度 而是城市化的速度
No, it’s the speed of urbanization that matters.
我称之为涡轮城市化 脆弱性的关键驱动因素之一
I call this turbo-urbanization, and it’s one of the key drivers of fragility.
你想到这些城市的惊人扩张
When you think about the incredible expansion of these cities,
你再想想涡轮城市化 再想想卡拉奇
and you think about turbo-urbanization, think about Karachi.
卡拉奇在1947年有约50万人 是一个繁忙的城市今日
Karachi was about 500,000 people in 1947, a hustling, bustling city.
卡拉奇有2千1百万人
Today, it’s 21 million people,
占有巴基斯坦GDP的三分之四
and apart from accounting for three quarters of Pakistan’s GDP,
亦是南亚最暴力的城市之一达卡
it’s also one of the most violent cities in South Asia.
、拉各斯、
Dhaka, Lagos, Kinshasa,
金沙萨现在这些城市 比19世纪50年代时庞大40倍
these cities are now 40 times larger than they were in the 1950s.
我们在看看纽约
Now take a look at New York.
纽约用了150年来收居八百万人
The Big Apple, it took 150 years to get to eight million people.
墨西哥城的圣保罗 用来15年时间就做到了
São Paulo, Mexico City, took 15 to reach that same interval.
这些超大中小城市是怎样的城市?
Now, what do these medium, large, mega-, and hypercities look like?
这些城市的相貌如何?
What is their profile?
首先 这些城市都很年轻
Well, for one thing, they’re young.
许多城市都出现年轻人口膨胀
What we’re seeing in many of them is the rise of the youth bulge.
这算是好消息
Now, this is actually a good news story.
因为这意味着幼儿死亡率下降了
It’s a function of reductions in child mortality rates.
但是年轻人口膨胀 我们得小心看待
But the youth bulge is something we’ve got to watch.
简单来说
What it basically means
生活在脆弱城市中的年轻人比例
is the proportion of young people living in our fragile cities
比其他更健康富裕的城市的比例要高得多
is much larger than those living in our healthier and wealthier ones.
在一些脆弱城市
In some fragile cities,
75%人口年龄在30岁以下想想:
75 percent of the population is under the age of 30.
每四个人中就有三个在30岁以下
Think about that: Three in four people are under 30.
就像让帕罗奥图服用类固醇
It’s like Palo Alto on steroids.
看看索马里的首都摩加迪沙
Now, if you look at Mogadishu for example,
在摩加迪沙 平均年龄是16岁
in Mogadishu the mean age is 16 years old.
类似的有孟加拉的达卡、 东帝汶的帝力、阿富汗的喀布尔东京呢?
Ditto for Dhaka, Dili and Kabul.
平均年龄46岁
And Tokyo? It’s 46.
大部分西欧城市亦一样
Same for most Western European cities.
不是年轻人就可以带来暴力
Now, it’s not just youth that necessarily predicts violence.
那只是多个因素中的其中之一
That’s one factor among many,
但如果青年 再加上失业、
but youthfulness combined with unemployment, lack of education,
缺乏学历如果还是男性青年 那就是不得了了
and — this is the kicker — being male, is a deadly proposition.
这些因素都在统计学上的相关因素
They’re statistically correlated, all those risk factors, with youth,
所有风险因素发生在青年身上 会使暴力发生率上升
and they tend to relate to increases in violence.
在座如果有儿子出于青年阶段
Now, for those of you who are parents of teenage sons,
就会懂我的意思
you know what I’m talking about, right?
想象一下您的儿子
Just imagine your boy without any structure
什么都没有经常跟不守规矩的朋友在一起
with those unruly friends of his, out there cavorting about.
四处闯闹现在 想象他们没有父母的教导
Now, take away the parents,
没有教育背景 教育机会受到限制
take away the education, limit the education possibilities,
在添点毒品、酒精、
sprinkle in a little bit of drugs, alcohol and guns,
枪械想想他们会变成怎样
and sit back and watch the fireworks.
后果可能是不堪设想的在巴西
The implications are disconcerting.
人均寿命是73.6岁
Right here in Brazil, the life expectancy is 73.6 years.
如果你住里约热内卢 抱歉
If you live in Rio, I’m sorry, shave off two right there.
活少两岁但要是你年轻、
But if you’re young, you’re uneducated,
没受过教育、没有工作、是黑人、还是男性黑人
you lack employment, you’re black, and you’re male,
你的年均寿命只能直降到60岁以下
your life expectancy drops to less than 60 years old.
年轻和暴力是这个国家的头号杀手
There’s a reason why youthfulness and violence are the number one killers
这是有原因的
in this country.
城市不是那么不可救药
Okay, so it’s not all doom and gloom in our cities.
毕竟城市是创新的温床
After all, cities are hubs of innovation,
充满活力、前景、刺激、
dynamism, prosperity, excitement, connectivity.
人际关系城市里都聚满了聪明人
They’re where the smart people gather.
而我刚刚所说的年轻人
And those young people I just mentioned,
他们认识的数码技术和技术比谁都多
they’re more digitally savvy and tech-aware than ever before.
知识爆炸、因特网、移动通信技术
And this explosion, the Internet, and mobile technology,
使南北部地区国家之间的 数码技术差异逐步缩小
means that the digital divide separating the North and the South
也使南北部地区国家内的 数码技术差异逐步缩小
between countries and within them, is shrinking.
但这些新技术是双刃剑
But as we’ve heard so many times,
这我们都耳熟能详
these new technologies are dual-edged, right?
拿法律实施来举例
Take the case of law enforcement.
全球的警察开始使用 遥感技术和海量数据
Police around the world are starting to use remote sensing and big data
来预测犯罪
to anticipate crime.
一些警察能够在犯罪发生前 就预测到罪犯的暴力行为
Some cops are able to predict criminal violence before it even happens.
将来犯罪的场景
The future crime scenario, it’s here today,
就在今天我们需要小心提防
and we’ve got to be careful.
我们必须协调好公共安全问题
We have to manage the issues of the public safety
防止个人隐私权利受到侵害
against rights to individual privacy.
在创新的
But it’s not just the cops who are innovating.
不只是警察我们听过坊间社会团体的 举办不少出众的活动
We’ve heard extraordinary activities of civil society groups
他们从事本地和全球的集体活动
who are engaging in local and global collective action,
可以引起数字化抗议和真实革命
and this is leading to digital protest and real revolution.
但最令人担忧的是
But most worrying of all are criminal gangs
犯罪团体利用网络 开始侵略网络空间
who are going online and starting to colonize cyberspace.
我在墨西哥的华雷斯城工作
In Ciudad Juárez in Mexico, where I’ve been working,
那里的塞塔斯暴力犯罪集团 和锡纳罗亚贩毒集团等集团
groups like the Zetas and the Sinaloa cartel
一直劫持社交媒体
are hijacking social media.
他们利用社交媒体来招兵买马 贩卖他们的产品胁迫
They’re using it to recruit, to sell their products,
、恐吓和杀害他人
to coerce, to intimidate and to kill.
暴力在走向虚拟世界
Violence is going virtual.
现今形势多变复杂
So this is just a partial sketch
这不过是其中一面
of a fast-moving and dynamic and complex situation.
超级风险还有许多
I mean, there are many other megarisks
并且会直接影响我们时代的脆弱性
that are going to define fragility in our time,
也会影响当今的收入不均、
not least income inequality,
贫穷、气候变化、 罪犯逍遥法外等问题
poverty, climate change, impunity.
但我们面临着一个严峻的窘境:
But we’re facing a stark dilemma
有些城市会繁荣发展 促进全球的进步
where some cities are going to thrive and drive global growth
但也有城市会跌跌绊绊 拉大家的后腿
and others are going to stumble and pull it backwards.
如果要改变这种现象 我们需要开展新对话
If we’re going to change course, we need to start a conversation.
我们不能只关注那些发展好的城市
We can’t only focus on those cities that work,
像新加坡、
the Singapores, the Kuala Lumpurs,
吉隆坡、杜拜、
the Dubais, the Shanghais.
上海;我们要与脆弱城市对话
We’ve got to bring those fragile cities into the conversation.
方法之一可以是
One way to do this might be to start twinning
将我们较健康富有的城市 与较脆弱的城市结对
our fragile cities with our healthier and wealthier ones,
开展相互学习合作的过程
kickstarting a process of learning and collaboration
分享经验 分享成功与失败
and sharing of practices, of what works and what doesn’t.
一个很好的例子是 萨尔瓦多和洛杉矶
A wonderful example of this is coming from El Salvador and Los Angeles,
圣萨尔瓦多市长和洛杉矶市长携手合作
where the mayors in San Salvador and Los Angeles are collaborating
组织前犯罪团体成员 与目前的犯罪团体成员一起
on getting ex-gang members to work with current gang members,
开放教育班、
offering tutoring, education,
提供教育、并且不断劝谕停火停战
and in the process are helping incubate cease-fires and truces,
圣萨尔瓦多的凶杀率显著下降了
and we’ve seen homicide rates go down in San Salvador,
过去世界上最暴力的城市
once the world’s most violent city,
凶杀率下降五成
by 50 percent.
我们也可以关注热门城市、
We can also focus on hot cities, but also hot spots.
热门地点地点对城市暴力形成有着根本影响
Place and location matter fundamentally in shaping violence in our cities.
在座是否知道
Did you know that between one and two percent
脆弱城市中1-2%的街道
of street addresses in any fragile city
可以预测该城市99%的暴力犯罪
can predict up to 99 percent of violent crime?
拿我生活的圣保罗为例
Take the case of São Paulo, where I’ve been working.
过去这是巴西最危险的城市 现在确实最安全的城市
It’s gone from being Brazil’s most dangerous city to one of its safest,
方法是将加大力量
and it did this by doubling down
双倍增加信息收集、 热点绘图、
on information collection, hot spot mapping, and police reform,
警方改革在十年内凶杀率因此下降70%
and in the process, it dropped homicide by 70 percent in just over 10 years.
我们也需要关注热点人物年轻
We also got to focus on those hot people.
、失业、无教育、
It’s tragic, but being young, unemployed, uneducated, male,
男性虽然不幸 但却可增加凶杀机率
increases the risks of being killed and killing.
我们必须打破这条暴力链
We have to break this cycle of violence
早期与儿童和青年相处
and get in there early with our children, our youngest children,
稳定他们 而不是侮辱他们
and valorize them, not stigmatize them.
最近我在致力的一项工作
There’s wonderful work that’s happening that I’ve been involved with
在牙买加的金斯敦、 在里约热内卢将教育
in Kingston, Jamaica and right here in Rio,
、就业、
which is putting education, employment, recreation
娱乐带给这些高风险人群
up front for these high-risk groups,
因此这些社区的暴力下降了
and as a result, we’re seeing violence going down in their communities.
我们也发现城市变得 更加安全 更加包容
We’ve also got to make our cities safer, more inclusive, and livable for all.
更加宜居事实是 社会凝聚力相当重要
The fact is, social cohesion matters.
流动性对城市相当重要
Mobility matters in our cities.
我们必须要让我们的城市
We’ve got to get away from this model of segregation, exclusion,
远离种族隔离、排斥他人的模式
and cities with walls.
一个很好的例子是麦德林
My favorite example of how to do this comes from Medellín.
九十年代末我住在哥伦比亚
When I lived in Colombia in the late 1990s,
麦德林是当时世界经典的凶杀城市 但是这个城市后来改变了
Medellín was the murder capital of the world, but it changed course,
这是因为刻意投资在低收入高暴力的地区
and it did this by deliberately investing in its low-income and most violent areas
与中产阶级社区相融合
and integrating them with the middle-class ones
通过缆车网络的接驳、
through a network of cable cars,
公共交通的联系、 一流基础设施的投入
of public transport, and first-class infrastructure,
该城市在二十年内 凶杀率下降79%最后
and in the process, it dropped homicide by 79 percent in just under two decades.
还有技术
And finally, there’s technology.
技术有巨大的好处 也有巨大的危害
Technology has enormous promise but also peril.
我们举了一些创新例子
We’ve seen examples here of extraordinary innovation,
很多都是出自这个房间
and much of it coming from this room,
警察致力于预测分析
The police are engaging in predictive analytics.
市民致力于新的公众解决方案
Citizens are engaging in new crowdsourcing solutions.
我自己的团队也在开发程序
Even my own group is involved in developing applications
提供更多可信破案资讯 为市民带来更多安全
to provide more accountability over police and increase safety among citizens.
但是我们需要小心提防
But we need to be careful.
如果我可以向您传达一个信息
If I have one single message for you, it’s this:
那会是:暴力致死不是不可避免的
There is nothing inevitable about lethal violence,
我们可以将城市变得更安全
and we can make our cities safer.
在座各位 我们现在有机会
Folks, we have the opportunity of a lifetime to drop homicidal violence
在我们有生之年 将凶杀率减少一半
in half within our lifetime.
所以我只有一个问题:
So I have just one question:
我们还在等什么?
What are we waiting for?
谢谢
Thank you.
(掌声)
(Applause)

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