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危机管理

Risk Management: Chris Davenport at TEDxMileHigh

欢迎大家
Welcome everybody.
很开心站在这里
It’s great to be here.
你们有多少人觉得极限滑雪者很疯狂
How many of you guys thinkthese extreme skiers are crazy?
大多数在电影里才看得到 对吗
Most of you, the stuffyou see in movies, right?
是的 看起来是这样的
Yeah, it certainly looks that way.
我今天将尽我所能揭开它的神秘面纱
I’m going to do my best todayto dispel that myth.
当我听到这次演讲的主题是“风险与回报”时
When I heard that the theme of this talk was risk versus reward,
我非常激动
I was really excited,
因为我所处的这个世界
because I live in a world
对风险和回报有很明确的定义
that is pretty much defined by risk and reward.
事实上 它定义了我的生活 我的职业
In fact, I would say it defines my life, my profession.
我一直都在做危险的事情
I’m out there doing dangerous things all the time.
不久以前
Some time ago,
可能是十年前 我慢慢地变老
as I started getting older, maybe ten years ago,
我开始思考如何管理风险
I started thinking more about how to manage risk.
我们都想活到很老
And we all want to get to a ripe old age in life,
和我们孙辈一起滑雪 并一直持续下去
and be skiing with our grandchildren,and make it through.
作为一名滑雪者
So I started taking a bit of an analytical approach
我开始分析我所做的一些事情
to what I do as a skier,
这样我就有希望继续下去了
so that I can hopefully make it through.
所以我要讲一些有关掌握风险管理的艺术
So I’m going to talk a little bit about mastering the art of risk management
就像我们爬山一样
as we deal with the mountains,
我想以我去年
and I’m going to use a trip that I did,
领队登珠穆朗玛峰为例
that I guided on Mount Everest last year,
就一年前(的经历)
just about a year ago,
来构建本次演讲的框架结构
to sort of frame the structure for this conversation.
什么是风险呢
So what is risk?
我们都知道这个词
We all know the word.
你可能提过
You probably use it,
你也知道什么是冒险的事
you know what a risky thing is,
但是讲真的 风险的定义是什么?
but really, what is the definition of risk?
对我来说 它是一次有可能出错的
For me it’s an action or an activity
行为或活动
that has the potential to go wrong.
可以有很多不同的情况
It can be so many different things.
可以是一条滑雪道 一次登山活动
It could be a ski run, could be a mountain climb,
也可能是一次交易
it could be a business deal,
一场投资 一段关系
could be an investment, could be a relationship.
有很多不一样的事情都称得上冒险
There’s so many different thingsthat can be risky.
现在站在这个台上也有点冒险
It’s kind of risky standing up here on the stage right now.
我完全有可能把它搞砸
I could totally blow it.
但是 可能发生的最糟的是什么呢
But you know, what’s the worst that could happen?
可能我会很尴尬
Maybe I’d be embarrassed.
所以一旦我们知道风险到底是什么
So once we know what risk really is,
我们就会想为什么我们人类要冒险
we can think about why we, as humans, take risks.
有点不合逻辑
It’s sort of illogical;
我们应该是想保护我们自己
we should want to preserve ourselves
才能活得长久
so we get to that ripe old age,
但并不是 人类酷爱冒险
but no, humans love taking risks.
为什么
Why?
刺激
It’s exciting.
爆破一座山
It’s fun to blast down a mountain
感觉灰尘像雪一样落在你的脸上 这很好玩
and feel the powder snow in your face.
爬一座高山 很好玩
It’s fun that climb a fourteener.
很好玩 很刺激
It’s fun, it’s a thrill,
这些运动让人肾上腺素飙升
it’s adrenaline to be out doing these kind of sports.
我们为了挣钱而冒风险
We take risks to make money,
我们为了提升形象或名誉而冒风险
we take risks to bolster our reputation or our image.
对我们为什么要冒风险 有各种各样的理由
All sorts of reasons out there that we would take risks,
但要再次强调 这是不合逻辑的
but again it’s very illogical.
为什么坐在赌桌前挥霍钱财
Why sit at a gambling table and waste money?
因为当你赢的时候
Well because the time you win,
会想着“噢 这感觉真好”
your brain goes,”Oh, I really like that!”
即使十有八九你都输了
Even though the other nine times out of ten you lost.
但这能直截了当地说明为什么我们出去冒险
But this is the quick and easy of why we go out and take risks.
是的 我是出于以下原因
On Mount Everest, I chose to go there
才选择登珠穆朗玛峰的
for pretty much all of those reasons.
当导游有钱赚
Yes,I was being paid as a guide,
这是财务激励(原因)
so there was the financial incentive.
即使旅途又长又累 但很好玩
It was really fun, even though it’s long and hard,
既有趣又刺激
it’s really fun and exciting.
如果我们成功登顶
There was the possibility
那么很可能将会
that it would enhance my reputation as a guide
提高我的导游名气
if we were successful.
反过来说
But on the opposite side of that,
如果失败了
if you aren’t successful,
失败的风险无非是下山 各回各家
the risk of failure, coming back,not getting the summit,
这算好的了 还有很多其它潜在风险
is great and there’s a lot of other potential risks
等下再跟大家讲
that I’ll talk about in just a second.
那么我们要如何区分这些事情呢
So how do we identify these things
当我们爬科罗拉多山
when we go up on a Colorado fourteener,
爬珠穆拉玛峰
we go up on Mount Everest,
我们看着山 我们大开眼界
we look at the mountains and we have to open our eyes and ears,
我们全心投入
and all of our senses to soak up
吸收周围所见和所感
what we see, what we feel, and look around us.
珠穆朗玛峰的风险就是裂缝
On Mount Everest, the risks are crevasses,
像我滑过的这道大裂缝
like this big crack that I skid by here.
你不会想摔下去的
You don’t want to fall in that;
你永远爬不出来
you’ll never come out.
雪崩 当然
Avalanches, of course.
两周前
I mean just two weeks ago,
媒体多次报导了
the media was full of Mount Everest stories
珠穆朗玛峰发生的数起意外
because there were a lot of accidents.
登山者被落石击中
People were getting hit by rockfall,
失足事件
people were falling,
这些都是医疗紧急事故
there were medical emergencies,
都是不好的事情
all sorts of bad stuff happening.
很多事故的发生都是因为
A lot of that comes from people
人们不应该在那里
that probably shouldn’t be there in the first place.
是他们选择了风险
That’s a risk that they choose to take,
登珠穆朗玛峰
perhaps stepping outside of their comfort zone
可能是为了跳出他们的舒适区
or over the boundaries of what they’re capable of
或尝试他们能力之外的事情
to go up to Mount Everest.
预估风险实际上只是对
Estimating the risk is really just an assessment
发生事件概率的评估
of the probability of something happening.
我们都知道会发生坏事
Now we know bad things can happen.
照明工具会没电 车子会被撞毁
Lighting can strike, your car can crash,
你会失足 会发生雪灾
you can fall, an avalanche can happen,
但真的会发生吗
but will it happen?
要了解这一点很重要
That’s the important thing to understand.
我们知道这些不好的情况
We know all this bad stuff,
我们看到了摆在眼前的风险
we’ve seen the risks in front of us,
我们已识别出风险
we’ve identified them,
但祸事都会发生吗
but will theses things happen?
这就得看你经验是否丰富了
This is where your experience is huge.
如果你爬遍了科罗拉多山脉
If you’ve climbed all of the Colorado fourteeners,
你会收获很多知识
you’ve gained a wealth of knowledge
来做正确的决定
that you can use to make good decisions.
如果你在银行工作了三十年
If you’ve been in the banking business for 30 years,
你会赚取很多知识和经验
you have a wealth of knowledgeand experience
来做出你的决定
which you use to inform your decisions.
对我而言 我自小就在山里滑雪
For me, I’ve grown up as a skier in the mountains,
所以雪山对我来说很舒服
so that’s like the most comfortable place.
比起走在大街上
I’m much more comfortable on top of a fourteener
走在雪山让我更舒心
than I am walking down a city street,
雪山让我有更多的自由
where I feel like I have less control.
当进行预估风险时
So in estimating the risk,
我们都在预估
we’re looking at
坏事发生的可能性
what’s the probability of something bad happening?
现在 我们要管理风险
Now we want to manage these things.
我们知道会有什么风险
We know what the risks are,
知道发生的可能性有多大
we know what the probability is,
或至少我们希望自己知道
or at least we hope we know.
我们必须要记住 我们人类
We have to remember that we, as human beings,
不像自己想象的那么聪明
are not as smart as we like to think we are.
人类有能力做令人难以置信的蠢事
Humans are capable of doing incredibly stupid things,
而且看来我们从不从彼此的错误中汲取教训
and we never seem to learn from each others’ mistakes.
回溯历史
You can go back in history
每个人都会做错事
and everybody has done things wrong.
每个人都会做错事
Everybody’s done everything wrong.
我们从未从中汲取教训
We just haven’t always learned from it,
所以我们一直重复这些错误
so we tend to repeat these mistakes.
有一门管理风险的艺术
So there’s an art to managing the risk,
我会教给大家
and I’m going to teach you,
或给各位一个我自制的工具
or give you a tool, that I created.
是我自创的方法论
It’s sort of a methodology that I created;
我命名为M.E.A.T方法
I call it The M.E.A.T Method.
我想放一张牛排的幻灯片
I wanted to put up a slide of a steak,
因为我觉得很好玩
just because I thought it would be funny,
但我抽不出时间做
but I didn’t get around to doing that.
我是素食主义者
I’m actually a vegetarian,
所以对我来说就更好玩了
so it’s even funnier for me.
这是首字母缩略词
But it’s just an acronym.
我本想取名为T.E.A.M.方法
I could’ve called it the T.E.A.M. method,
但我想按正确顺序排成meat
but meat was in the right orderthat I wanted.
这张照片是珠穆朗玛峰的南山口
This is a picture of the South Col of Mount Everest,
这是高营地 远处是山顶
the high camp, and that’s the summit in the distance.
我们来谈谈 从那个高营地
So we’re going to talk about what it was like to go
爬到山顶是什么感受
from that high camp up to the summit,
以及那天我们是如何管理风险的
and how we managed the risks that day.
有关M.E.A.T.方法论 你能做的第一件事是平静下来
So the first thing you can do in the M.E.A.T method is mitigate.
意思是减少风险
Mitigate just means reducing the risk,
调整情况
it means tweaking the situation.
举个例子
So for instance,
滑雪场的巡逻人员会在
ski patrols on the ski area will throw bombs
大雪过后的清晨投掷炸弹
in the morning after a big snow fall
让雪崩降到更陡峭的地形
to try to get avalanches to come down to steeper terrain
以便安全地向公众开放
so they can safely open for the public.
科罗拉多交警会在高速通车前
The Colorado Department of Transportationwill go up on the highways
有危险事件发生时
and shoot their guns, like on Loveland and Berthoud Pass,
开枪降低雪崩
to try to bring avalanches downbefore they open the highway
像在洛夫兰和伯索德山口做得一样
if it’s a dangerous scenario.
他们试着调整情况
They’re trying to tweak the situation,
减少伤害
reduce the hazard,
所以更安全
so that it is safer.
第二件事
The second thing,
这张照片是在珠穆朗玛峰
and this is actually a picture of the world’s fourth highest mountain
8500千米处日出时
taken at sunrise from about 28,000 feet on Everest,
拍摄的世界第四高峰 洛子峰
and this is Lhotse,
顺便一提 还没人去那里滑过雪
which by the way, has never been skied
如果有人要玩很酷项目的话
if anyone is looking for a really cool project.
尽管风险很大
It’s very risky though.
风险很大
Very risky.
所以我们能做的第二件事就是同时消除风险
So the second thing we can do is eliminate the risk all together.
什么意思呢
What does that mean?
不要去 不要做
Don’t go. Don’t do it.
去年的5月19号
On May 19th last year,
在南山口 我们晚上8点钟起床
we got up at about 8 PM at the South Col,
走出帐篷 穿好衣服 喝了些热茶
we got out of our tents, got dressed, drank some hot tea.
这是你所能下咽的东西了
It’s about all you could stomach up there.
10点左右 我们开始朝山顶进发
About 10 PM, we started walkingtoward the summit.
那天晚上风雪交加
It was a snowy night, it was windy,
天气不是很好
it wasn’t good conditions.
我们走了一小时
We walked for about an hour,
海拔大约213米
about 700 vertical feet,
到了8230米处时
about 27,000 feet,
我看着我的旅客 他们之中有人说
I looked at my client and one of the other guys and said,
“感觉不太好 我不喜欢这天气”
“This doesn’t feel good. I’m not liking the weather.”
天又冷风又大
It was really cold and windy
登山之途又长又艰难
and it was going to be a long, hard climb.
我和其中一位导游 决定碰下运气
And I decided, along with one of the other guides to take a chance,
这是个冒险的决定
and it was a risky decision,
返程回到南山口
to turn around and to go back to the South Col.
我们明晚有一次机会
And we had one chance to go the next night,
明晚也有足够的氧气登山
we had enough oxygen to go the next night.
如果我们错过机会 那就完了
If we missed that opportunity, we were done,
我们掉头返程
we were going back down.
所以那晚我们决定消除风险
So we made the call to eliminate the hazard that night,
往回走
go back down,
回帐篷睡个好觉 第二天再尝试登顶
safely sleep in our tents, try it again the next day.
幸运的是 第二天我们睡醒时
Fortunately, we woke up the next day,
天气十分晴朗
and it was absolutely gorgeous out,
阳光四射 我们休息了一整天
the sun was shining, we just relaxed all day long,
重复昨天的事情:
and did the same thing:
晚上8点起床 做饭 穿衣
we got up at 8 PM, cooked, got dressed,
10点踏出帐篷 出发
were out of the tent by 10 PM, climbing.
那晚皓月当空 繁星满天
Gorgeous starry night with the Moon out.
时机刚刚好
It was the right call.
这次事件 我们接受了风险
So in this case, we were accepting of the risk.
我们对所处境遇感觉良好
We felt good about the situation.
我们体能也跟得上 天气也很好
Our bodies felt good, the conditions looked great,
我们表示:“你知道吗 一切都很好”
and we said,”You know what?” This feels good.”
我们的直觉
Our intuition, our gut instincts,
我们这些年在山上累积的直觉迸发
those things that we’ve learned over all those years out in the mountains
告诉我们“游戏开始 我们走吧”
were telling us,”Game on, let’s go.”
这张照片拍的是我朋友和另一位导游
So here’s a picture of my friend and another guide,
尼尔·贝德勒曼
Neal Beidleman,
你们很多人应该听说过他
many of you might know.
他是科罗拉多人 是乔恩·克拉考尔著作《巅峰》中 1996年珠穆朗玛峰事故的经历者
He’s a Coloradoan who was involvedin Jon Krakauer’s”Into Thin Air” book the disaster in 1996.
15年来 他第一次和我一起登上珠穆朗玛峰
He was back on Everest with me for the first time in 15 years.
这次情况截然不同:天气很好 条件也很好
Very different circumstances, we had great weather and great conditions.
这是他在珠穆朗玛峰南顶峰的照片
This is him on the South summitof Mount Everest.
最后一个缩略词
and then the final acronym the final letter in the acronym
就是转移风险
as I climb up over the Hillary Step here,
当我登上希拉里台阶往山顶走的时候
towards the summit of Everest, is transferring the risk.
转移风险的另一说法就是“你先走”
Transferring the risk is really justa fancy way of saying,”You go first.”
(笑声)
(Laughter)
其他人能承受风险
Somebody else can take the risk.
这很有道理
It makes perfect sense.
不然咧
Why not?
我们来看看别人会发生什么事
Let’s go see what will happento someone else.
你们还记得小的时候
Do you guys remember being kids,
你站在桥边 看着水面
maybe you’re standing up on a bridge over the water,
你在等有人跳水
and you’re waiting for someone to jump in first
再看看跳水到底有多难 滑雪也一样
so that you can see how hard it really was, or perhaps skiing,
你等有人跳下小山涯
you’re waiting for someone to jump off that little corners and cliff
再看看着陆是什么样子
to see what the landing looks like?
转移风险是个好办法
Transferring the risk is a good way to go.
对了 我要给大家留两句名言
Alright, I’m going to leave you with two quotes,
一句来自世界奥林匹克滑雪运动员吉恩•克劳德•基利
one from the World OlympicChampion Skier Jean-Claude Killy.
他说:“要想赢就得承担输的风险”
He said,”To win you have to risk losing.”
另一句是我昨晚想起来的
Another one that came to my mindlast night actually
是美国诗人T.S.艾略特说的
was from the American poet T.S. Elliot.
他说:“只有那些愿意远行的人才知道自己能走多远”
He said,” Only those that are willing to go too far will understand how far they can possibly go.”
非常感谢 丹佛
Thanks a lot, Denver.
非常感谢
I appreciate it!
(掌声)
(Applause)

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视频概述

危机管理也是一门艺术

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视频来源

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zyet9fPS24k

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