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霍金求道 - 宇宙苍茫

Questioning the universe | Stephen Hawking

宇宙浩瀚无垠 不断演化
There is nothing bigger or older than the universe.
我接下来要谈的几个问题分别是:
The questions I would like to talk about are:
一 人类是怎么诞生的?
one, where did we come from?
二 宇宙是怎么诞生的?
How did the universe come into being?
三 我们是宇宙里唯一存在的生物吗?
Are we alone in the universe?
四 外太空有没有外星人呢?
Is there alien life out there?
五 人类的未来将会是什么?
What is the future of the human race?
直到上个世纪20年代
Up until the 1920s,
每个人都认为宇宙亘古不变
everyone thought the universe was essentially static
只有时间长流
and unchanging in time.
后来发现宇宙并非静止 而是不断向外膨胀的
Then it was discovered that the universe was expanding.
远处的星系在不断远离我们
Distant galaxies were moving away from us.
也就是说在以前 他们离的更近些
This meant they must have been closer together in the past.
如果我们向前推算
If we extrapolate back,
我们会发现在150亿年前的各种星体
we find we must have all been on top of each other
挨在一起 像一个点
about 15 billion years ago.
这就是大爆炸 宇宙的起点
This was the Big Bang, the beginning of the universe.
但是在大爆炸之前宇宙存在什么吗?
But was there anything before the Big Bang?
如果空无一物 那会是什么创造了宇宙呢?
If not, what created the universe?
为什么宇宙要以大爆炸的方式诞生呢?
Why did the universe emerge from the Big Bang the way it did?
过去我们认为宇宙的理论
We used to think that the theory of the universe
可分成两部分来理解:
could be divided into two parts.
第一部分是一些物理定律
First, there were the laws
比如麦克斯韦方程 广义相对论
like Maxwell’s equations and general relativity
这些定律决定了宇宙的演化方向
that determined the evolution of the universe,
能表明某一时刻的空间物质分布
given its state over all of space at one time.
第二部分 首先对宇宙初始状态是没有争议的
And second, there was no question of the initial state of the universe.
我们在第一部分中有许多研究成果
We have made good progress on the first part,
而现在又掌握了所有进化规律
and now have the knowledge of the laws of evolution
除了最极端的情况
in all but the most extreme conditions.
可就算到现在 我们仍对宇宙初生时
But until recently, we have had little idea
的原始条件知之甚少
about the initial conditions for the universe.
但是这种分裂的演变规律和初始条件
However, this division into laws of evolution and initial conditions
取决于时间和空间的隔离和区别
depends on time and space being separate and distinct.
在极端条件下 广义相对论和量子理论
Under extreme conditions, general relativity and quantum theory
可以把时间当作空间的另一种维度
allow time to behave like another dimension of space.
这就解决了时间和空间的区别问题
This removes the distinction between time and space,
也意味着进化规律也可以决定初始状态
and means the laws of evolution can also determine the initial state.
宇宙可以自发地从虚无中创造自己
The universe can spontaneously create itself out of nothing.
此外 我们能计算出
Moreover, we can calculate a probability that the universe
宇宙在不同情况下诞生的可能性
was created in different states.
以上理论与WMAP探测器观测到的结果完全一致
These predictions are in excellent agreement
探测器通过感测宇宙微波背景辐射的涨落 来获知宇宙之前的状态
with observations by the WMAP satellite of the cosmic microwave background,
宇宙微波背景辐射正是早期宇宙的遗留
which is an imprint of the very early universe.
我想我们现在已经解开了宇宙诞生之谜
We think we have solved the mystery of creation.
或许我们应该给宇宙发个专利
Maybe we should patent the universe
然后向每个存在的人收钱
and charge everyone royalties for their existence.
现在我们来谈第二个大问题:
I now turn to the second big question:
我们孤独吗?宇宙中有其他的生命吗?
are we alone, or is there other life in the universe?
我们相信生命是在地球上自然而生的
We believe that life arose spontaneously on the Earth,
因此 生命在其他合适的行星上出现也是绝对可能的
so it must be possible for life to appear on other suitable planets,
而宇宙中有不计其数的行星
of which there seem to be a large number in the galaxy.
我们不知道是生命最初是怎么开始的
But we don’t know how life first appeared.
关于生命诞生的可能性问题
We have two pieces of observational evidence
我们有两项观测得来的佐证:
on the probability of life appearing.
一是发现的35亿年前的藻类化石
The first is that we have fossils of algae from 3.5 billion years ago.
地球形成于46亿年前
The Earth was formed 4.6 billion years ago
起初的5000万年温度偏高
and was probably too hot for about the first half billion years.
所以5000万年内有生命出现在地球上
So life appeared on Earth
也并非不可能
within half a billion years of it being possible,
和具有100亿年星龄 与地球一般大小的行星相比
which is short compared to the 10-billion-year lifetime
5000万年并不算长
of a planet of Earth type.
种种迹象表明出现生命的可能性还比较高
This suggests that the probability of life appearing is reasonably high.
要是几率很低的话 我们只能期望
If it was very low, one would have expected it
好好把握我们存在的一百万亿年
to take most of the ten billion years available.
另一方面 外星人似乎从未访问过地球
On the other hand, we don’t seem to have been visited by aliens.
我想吐槽下关于外星人的报道
I am discounting the reports of UFOs.
为什么他们就非得长得奇形怪状?
Why would they appear only to cranks and weirdos?
如果真有一个政府阴谋在对各大媒体施压
If there is a government conspiracy to suppress the reports
然后私下研究外星人带来的科学技术
and keep for itself the scientific knowledge the aliens bring,
那可真像个离奇而无用之举
it seems to have been a singularly ineffective policy so far.
此外在探索外星智能方面已经研究甚多
Furthermore, despite an extensive search by the SETI project,
可我们也没有收到任何外太空回应
we haven’t heard any alien television quiz shows.
这或许表明在我们人类生存的时间范围内
This probably indicates that there are no alien civilizations
不存在所谓的外星文明
at our stage of development
因为地球的光才辐射出去几百光年
within a radius of a few hundred light years.
出售外星人绑架保险
Issuing an insurance policy
似乎是个稳赚不赔的行当
against abduction by aliens seems a pretty safe bet.
下面我们回到最大的问题:
This brings me to the last of the big questions:
人类的未来
the future of the human race.
如果我们是银河系中唯一的智能生物
If we are the only intelligent beings in the galaxy,
我们得要繁衍生命 传递文明
we should make sure we survive and continue.
但我们正步入一个愈发危险的历史阶段
But we are entering an increasingly dangerous period of our history.
人口数量和地球有限的资源使用量
Our population and our use of the finite resources of planet Earth
都呈指数式增长
are growing exponentially,
与此同时 我们用技术能力改造环境 这种改变时好时坏
along with our technical ability to change the environment for good or ill.
但我们的基因
But our genetic code
仍然带着自私和侵略的天性——
still carries the selfish and aggressive instincts
在过去这种天性是生存优势
that were of survival advantage in the past.
在未来的百年内
It will be difficult enough to avoid disaster
避免自然灾害将变得极为困难
in the next hundred years,
就更别说1000年后或者百万年后了
let alone the next thousand or million.
要长期生存下去 唯一的机会在于——
Our only chance of long-term survival
不要一直探索地球内部
is not to remain inward-looking on planet Earth,
而是冲出太空去
but to spread out into space.
这些大问题的答案充分显示
The answers to these big questions
在过去的百年中 我们已经做出了举世瞩目的成就
show that we have made remarkable progress in the last hundred years.
但如果我们想要在接下来的一百年甚至之后继续进步
But if we want to continue beyond the next hundred years,
我们的未来应着眼于太空
our future is in space.
这也是为什么我赞成有人驾驶的——
That is why I am in favor of manned —
或者我该说 载人的——宇宙飞行
or should I say, personned — space flight.
我终其一生都在试图理解宇宙
All of my life I have sought to understand the universe
并解开它的谜团
and find answers to these questions.
我是一个幸运的人
I have been very lucky
我的瘫痪并没有能够阻碍我思考和探索
that my disability has not been a serious handicap.
相反 身体上的缺陷恰好给了我比常人更多的时间
Indeed, it has probably given me more time than most people
来追求知识之真理
to pursue the quest for knowledge.
我们最终想建立完整的宇宙理论
The ultimate goal is a complete theory of the universe,
而此举已有良好进展
and we are making good progress.
感谢收听
Thank you for listening.
克里斯·安德森:教授 如果现在让你猜测
Chris Anderson: Professor, if you had to guess either way,
你相信在银河系中
do you now believe that it is more likely than not
人类不是唯一的智能生物
that we are alone in the Milky Way,
而是会存在像我们发展程度一样甚至较高程度的文明吗?
as a civilization of our level of intelligence or higher?
霍金教授用了七分钟来回答这个问题 而且答案让我洞悉了
This answer took seven minutes, and really gave me an insight
他难以置信的慷慨行为 而且他的这次演讲着实为TED付出良多
into the incredible act of generosity this whole talk was for TED.
史蒂芬·霍金:在我看来 很有可能我们就是
Stephen Hawking: I think it quite likely that we are the only civilization
几百光年内宇宙唯一的文明
within several hundred light years;
否则我们早就通过设备接收到电磁波信息了 但是没有
otherwise we would have heard radio waves.
还有一种可能性是外太空文明持续的时间很短
The alternative is that civilizations don’t last very long,
在人类诞生之前就已经灭亡
but destroy themselves.
克里斯·安德森:霍金教授 感谢您的回答
CA: Professor Hawking, thank you for that answer.
我想在这周余下的讨论中
We will take it as a salutary warning, I think,
我们都会把它看做有用警告
for the rest of our conference this week.
霍金教授 我们真的很感谢您今天能特意抽出时间
Professor, we really thank you for the extraordinary effort you made
和我们分享你的问题
to share your questions with us today.
衷心地感谢您
Thank you very much indeed.
(掌声)
(Applause)

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视频概述

对宇宙研究颇多的得霍金教授抽出时间,给宇宙理论爱好者们上了生动的一课。

听录译者

收集自网络

翻译译者

D.M.

审核员

赖皮

视频来源

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xjBIsp8mS-c

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