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哈耶克的市场经济论及与凯恩斯的恩怨情仇 – 译学馆
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哈耶克的市场经济论及与凯恩斯的恩怨情仇

POLITICAL THEORY – Friedrich Hayek

政治理论
Political Theory
弗里德里希·奥古斯特·冯·哈耶克
Friedrich August Von Hayek
弗里德里希·奥古斯特·冯·哈耶克是个政治经济学家
Friedrich August von Hayek was a political economist
他极大地影响了资本主义社会的人们
who had tremendous influence upon how people in capitalist societies
对自由的理解
understand the concept of liberty.
引起争论的是 哈耶克认为
Controversially, for Hayek,
自由并不意味着民主或对自由主义思想的尊崇
liberty did not mean democracy or commitment to a set of liberal ideals.
与此不同 哈耶克认为自由是一种有意引入
Rather, Hayek believed liberty was a policy which deliberately adopts
竞争、市场和价格作为其秩序原理的政策
competition, markets and prices as its ordering principles.
按哈耶克的思维方式 是市场保证了个体的自由
To Hayek’s way of thinking, it was markets that guaranteed the individual liberty.
相反的 国家对市场的干预
And by contrast, it was the interference of the state in markets
会破坏自由的运转
which disrupted the operation of liberty
并将社会引向他的著名言论:
and started the society down as he famously put it:
奴役制的道路
the road to serfdom.
哈耶克出生于奥匈帝国贵族的一个小分支
Hayek was born into a minor part of the Austro-Hungarian aristocracy.
他的父亲来自学者世家 是一位医师
His father who came from a line of scholars was a medical doctor
和植物学兼职讲师
and a part-time lecturer in botany.
哈耶克的童年充满了对哲学和经济的思考
Hayek’s childhood was filled with considerations of philosophy and economics.
在第一次世界大战期间短暂加入奥匈帝国军队后
After a brief stint in Austro-Hungarian army during the First World War,
哈耶克开始在维也纳大学学习
Hayek took up studies at the University of Vienna,
并获得了法律和政治科学的博士学位
obtaining doctorates in law and political science.
之后 他成为了一位理论经济学家
And afterwards, he became an academic economist.
哈耶克的职业生涯可以分为两个阶段
Hayek’s career can be divided into two periods.
第一阶段是从刚工作到20世纪40年代末期
The first which ended towards the end of 1940s
主要在伦敦经济学院度过
was spent mainly at the London School of Economics,
在这里 哈耶克专注于许多当代的宏观经济辩论
where Hayek concerned himself with many of the macroeconomic debates of the day.
哈耶克职业生涯的后一半更加丰富
The second half of Hayek’s career was much more varied,
从1945年开始
from 1945 onwards
他一开始在芝加哥 之后去了弗莱堡、洛杉矶和萨尔兹堡
in first Chicago and later Freiburg, Los Angeles and Salzburg.
哈耶克撰写文章并讲授各种课程:
Hayek wrote and lectured on a whole range of subjects:
经济学 是的 还有政治学、心理学、哲学和科学哲学
economics, yes, but also politics, psychology, philosophy and the philosophy of science.
当他1968年正式退休后
And while he officially retired in 1968,
哈耶克在20世纪70、80年达到了他影响力的巅峰
it was actually in the 1970s and 80s that Hayek enjoyed his greatest moments of influence,
在1974年获得诺贝尔经济学奖
being awarded the Nobel Prize in economic sciences in 1974
并在之后对罗纳德·里根和玛格丽特·撒切尔的政府影响巨大
and subsequently being enormously influential upon the governments of Ronald Reagan and Margaret Thatcher.
哈耶克从1931年开始在伦敦经济学院任教期间
During Hayek’s stay at the London School of Economics which he joined in 1931,
他凭借一个经济学理论解决了许多当时的辩论
he wrestled with a number of the then contemporary debates with an economic theory.
该理论主要以商业周期为中心
Much of this revolved around business cycle,
商业周期简单来说就是经济的增长和萎缩
which put simply is the way in which economies grow and contract.
传统经济学理论认为 随着时间推移
Traditional economic theory held that over time
经济会达到均衡状态
economies found themselves in equilibrium.
短期内 过剩和短缺会通过市场机制自我平衡
In short, gluts and shortages should balance themselves out via market mechanisms,
达到经济体内的最优资源分配
leading to the optimal distribution of resources within an economy.
但问题是 经济的高峰和低谷
The problem was that the economic peaks and troughs
似乎持续出现 并且比人们认为的更加剧烈
seemed to keep occurring and they also seemed to be more dramatic than they should be.
当世界经济在20世纪20年代晚期和30年代经历了停滞、崩溃时
When the world economy stagnated and crashed in the late 1920s and the 1930s,
针对这个情况发生的原因开始了激烈的辩论
fierce debate began as to why this had occurred.
从一个相对古典的角度来看待经济学
Coming in economics from a fairly classical position,
哈耶克主要关注供给的问题
Hayek focused on issues of supply.
他注意到当经济在衰退期时
He noticed that when economies were in recession,
中央银行常会人为地向经济中注入更多货币
central banks often artificially injected more money into the economy,
通过印制现金或其它方式 或者
by printing cash or else or in addition
通过压低利息率来鼓励投资而不是存款
by holding interest rates low to encourage investment rather than saving.
哈耶克提出这是个错误
Hayek argued that this was a mistake.
当货币过于充裕
When money was too readily available,
企业家就会在那些不是针对顾客需求设计的产品上投资
entrepreneurs invested in products which were not necessarily designed by consumers.
当这些产品卖不出去时
When these products went unsold,
公司就会破产 使得产业能力被投资到不需要的地方
companies would go bankrupt leaving industrial capacity invested where it needed not be.
此外 廉价信用刺激了长期资本投资
In addition, cheap credit incentivized long-term capital investment,
哈耶克提出这也是个问题
and Hayek argued that this too was a problem
因为这限制了企业家
because it limited the possibility of entrepreneurs
试图实现短期收益的可能性
attempting to realize short-term gains
而这才是经济发展的动力
which would actually kick start the economy.
对哈耶克来说 抑制干预货币供给的冲动
Resisting the temptation to meddle in the money supply was for Hayek
是解决大萧条问题的关键
crucial to solving the problem of the Great Depression.
哈耶克在伦敦经济学院的同事对他这个偏古典的方式还是乐于接受的
Hayek’s colleagues at the London School of Economics were receptive to his more classical approach.
但到了剑桥 截然不同的思想就出现了
But up the road in Cambridge a very different set of ideas was emerging,
以约翰·梅纳德·凯恩斯的思想为中心
centered on the thought of John Maynard Keynes.
凯恩斯提出20世纪30年代经济的问题
Keynes argued that the problems of the 1930s’ economy
其实主要并不是供给的问题
were located not so much in issues of supply
而是需求的问题
but rather of demand.
对凯恩斯来说 政府的作用是投资公共工程
For Keynes the role of government was to invest in public works,
比如 修建道路 这可以创造就业
the building of roads, for example, which would create employment
引入消费资金 从而刺激经济增长
and therefore give money to spend stimulating economic growth.
凯恩斯认为 因此 充分就业
For Keynes full employment was therefore
不仅是值得赞赏的社会目标 还对经济至关重要
not only a laudable social goal but vital for the economy too.
凯恩斯的需求引领型经济学从根本上与哈耶克的观点不同
Keynes’ demand-led economics was fundamentally at odds with Hayek’s ideas.
哈耶克认为凯恩斯对充分就业的关注
Hayek felt that Keynes’ focus on fully employment
需要政府持续增加货币供给
would require governments to keep increasing money supply.
反过来 这会造成严重通胀
This in turn would create severe inflation
这种通胀摧毁了家庭存款
of the kind that wiped out his family savings
在20世纪20年代奥地利经受了恶性通胀时
when 1920’s Austria had suffered about of hyper-inflation.
贯穿20世纪30年代
Throughout the 1930s,
哈耶克和凯恩斯互相回应对方 进行激烈争论
Hayek and Keynes corresponded with each other, argued bitterly
双方几乎没有共同点
and found very little common ground.
在第二次世界大战期间 他们甚至在巧合下见面了
During the Second World War, they even met under bizarre circumstances.
由于德国对伦敦的轰炸行动
Because of the German bombing campaign against London,
伦敦经济学院的人被疏散至剑桥
the LSE had been evacuated to Cambridge.
一个晚上 凯恩斯和哈耶克一起被分配到防火员的岗位
One night, Keynes and Hayek were assigned to a firewatch duty together
在国王学院教堂屋顶上
on the roof of the chapel of King’s College.
令人伤心的是 我们并不知道他们那天晚上说了什么
Sadly we don’t know what it was they talked about throughout that night.
哈耶克职业生涯第二阶段的开端
The opening of the second half of Hayek’s career
标志是他第一次尝试跨越单纯的经济争论
is marked by his first foray out from dry economic arguments
并出版了可能是他最著名的作品
and the publication of what is probably his most famous work:
《通往奴役之路》
The Road to Serfdom.
哈耶克将这本书的写作看做战争的一种形式
Hayek saw the writing of this book as a form of war work
强加于他身上 因为作为前敌军骨干
forced upon him because as a former enemy competent,
哈耶克被拒绝正式服务于英国战争
Hayek was refused official service in the British War effort
在凯恩斯的计划理论背景下
against the backdrop of Keynes’ ideas on planning
且英国政治圈接受的正是凯恩斯的理论
which had become accepted within British government circles.
《通往奴役之路》是一次尝试 尝试让人们自救
“The Road to Serfdom” was an attempt to save people from themselves,
更准确的是 从中央政府手中自救
or more accurately from central government.
哈耶克提出了几个关键论点
Hayek put forward several key arguments.
首先 德国人作为一个种族 本质上并不会
Firstly that there was nothing intrinsic to Germans as a race of people
致使他们追求政府的独裁主义
that had caused them to adopt authoritarian form of government.
哈耶克反对当时很流行的一个观点
Hayek rejected the idea somewhat popular at the time
德国的文化 或其实是德国这个种族的本质
that there was something about German culture or indeed inherent to Germans as a race
驱使他们追求政府独裁主义和扩张主义
which predisposed them to authoritarian and expansionist forms of government.
第二 哈耶克提出 德国和苏联 在一个相同的点上
Secondly, Hayek argued where Germany and Soviet Union too for that matter
出了问题 那就是国家调控
had gone wrong was undertaking state planning
这妨碍了市场的自然运行
that interfered in the natural operation of markets.
哈耶克认为 国家调控的问题是 这必须涉及
For Hayek, the problem with state planning was that it necessarily involved
将制定计划的责任
offering up responsibility for deciding
赋予一个人
upon a plan to a single individual.
在一个官僚系统 比如国家 哈耶克提出
In a bureaucratic system such as the state, Hayek argued
必须有某个人最终决定什么行动应该实施
someone had to ultimately decide on what course of action should be taken
并且在一段特定时期内 并不一定需要
and that person’s judgement would not necessarily have to be deferred to
反复听取或参照这位决定者的判断
and referred to repeatedly over a given period of time.
从这个意义上来说 计划会使社会在不知不觉中进入独裁社会
In this sense, planning led societies a sleepwalk into dictatorship.
第三 哈耶克不仅担心计划者的内在需求
Thirdly, not only did Hayek worry about the inherent need for
会取决于一个人
planners to defer to a single individual,
而且担心 从根本上
but also he was concerned that fundamentally
没有一个人能够真正做出理性的选择
no one individual could actually make rational choices
当面对经济问题时
in regards to economic problems,
因为他们并没有足够的信息作为决策的依据
due to them not having enough information to base their decisions upon.
更明确地说 哈耶克并不是责怪独裁主义
To be clear, it was not that Hayek necessarily condemned dictatorship.
毕竟 他认为的自由是一个社会
After all, his vision of liberty was a society in which
在这个社会中市场是组织经济的主要方法
markets were the principal method of economic organization,
并不一定要是一个政府事事都由全体投票决定的社会
not necessarily one where society collectively decided upon governments by the ballot box.
因此 哈耶克并不反对独裁者 如果他采取
To this end, Hayek was comfortable with dictators who adopted
自由市场经济政策 对国家经济进行最小程度的政府干预
free market economic policies involving minimal state intervention in a nation’s economy.
但那些实施经济控制的独裁者们在哈耶克看来
But dictators who undertook economic planning were for Hayek
是非常邪恶的
the really great evil.
哈耶克这么认为:
Hayek saw it like this:
市场是极度复杂的网络
markets are extremely complicated network with millions
每时每刻都有上万 甚至上亿的交易在进行
if not billions of transactions going on all the time.
即使仅仅考虑到基础的市场交易 体量也是巨大的
Even consideration of some of the basics of market transactions shows this.
货物买进和卖出 商品投资和剥夺
Items are bought and sold, commodities are invested in and divested from,
并且饥荒和丰产粮食产量会影响有多少食物
and famines and bumper crop yields affect how much there is to eat
需要多少价格来获取食物
and how much it will cost to acquire it,
根据供需法则
in keeping with the laws of supply and demand.
当人们对是否买一件商品做出选择时
When individuals make choices as to whether or not to buy a commodity,
商品的价格就被影响了
they affect that commodity’s price.
如果商品稀缺 它的价格就会上升
If it becomes scarce, its price increases.
如果商品丰裕 它的价格就会下降
If it becomes plentiful, its price falls.
从这方面来说 自由市场就像一种常态化的公投
In this sense the free market acts as a kind of constant referendum
针对经济体中的货物价值
on the value of goods within an economy.
哈耶克认为 市场代表着一种集体协议
For Hayek, the market represented a form of collective agreement
由在市场中参与运营的所有人共同制定
made amongst all of the people operating in that market
针对特定货物或服务的价值
as to the value of particular goods and services.
与成百上千 乃至上万人的共同智慧相对
And against the collective wisdom of hundreds or thousands or millions of people,
一个计划者要如何拥有更高的智慧?
what could one single planner hope to offer that represented superior form of wisdom?
因此 对哈耶克来说 自由就是让市场完成它的使命
Liberty for Hayek therefore was to be found in letting the market do its work.
《通往奴役之路》开启了哈耶克的职业后期
“The Road to Serfdom” launched Hayek’s later career.
这本书立即成了畅销书
Instantly it became a best seller.
在第二次世界大战期间 印刷量由于纸张短缺而受限
During the Second World War, its print run was limited due to paper shortages
由于庞大的需求 几乎是一书难求
and obtaining a copy was nigh on impossible due to sheer demand.
在美国 浓缩的读者文摘版书籍
In the United States of America, condensed Reader’s Digest version of the book
把书里的观点带给了广大群众
brought the message to a very large public.
还有哈耶克在1945年做的一系列讲座
So too did a series of lectures delivered by Hayek during 1945
覆盖了美国多地
at various venues in the United States.
哈耶克 被英国的政策制定者和经济学家冷落
Hayek, cold-shouldered by British policy makers and economists
却很欣喜地在美国得到了接受
was delighted at the reception he received in the US.
1950年 他转到了芝加哥大学
And in 1950 he moved to the University of Chicago,
这里成为了新自由主义经济思潮的中心
which became the centre of neoliberal economic thinking
哈耶克和这所学校紧密联系
with which Hayek was closely associated
就像剑桥成为凯恩斯经济的大本营一样
much as Cambridge had been the locus for Keynesian economics.
尽管《通往奴役之路》广受赞赏
But despite the popular acclaim of “The Road to Serfdom”,
仍有两种负面的反应使他烦恼
Two negative reactions irked him.
首先 有些他自己的同事是支持他提出的观点
First of all, some of his own colleagues normally sympathetic to the ideas he put forward
但他们将《通往奴役之路》看做一种无足轻重的新闻报道
saw “The Road to Serfdom” as a kind of lightweight form of journalism
而不是一部学术著作
rather than as a form of scholarship.
凯恩斯读了《通往奴役之路》
Keynes who read “The Road to Serfdom”
给哈耶克寄来的 大部分是对书本内容的赞赏
sent Hayek what was for the most part complimentary message about its content.
然而 到了最后 凯恩斯简短地
However towards the end and in quick order
质疑哈耶克 政府规划的底线应该划在哪里
Keynes challenged Hayek as to where he would draw the line on government planning.
适度政府规划显然是需要的 哈耶克毕竟不是个经济无政府主义者
Some planning was clearly needed. Hayek was not an economic anarchist after all.
但凯恩斯质疑:这底线应该划到哪里?
But Keynes challenged: where would the line be drawn?
哈耶克花了好几年来完成他对凯恩斯的回答 凯恩斯死于1946年
It took Hayek many years to work out his response to Keynes who died in 1946,
而这个回答最终发布在哈耶克1960年的书中:
with a response eventually came in 1960 in Hayek’s book:
《自由宪章》
The Constitution of Liberty.
这本书展示了哈耶克的实践理论
The book laid out Hayek’s practical vision for
针对这条介于国家和市场之间的线应该划在哪里
where the line between the state and the market should be drawn,
这个理论在政治权利圈中有极高的影响力
and it was highly influential among the political right.
在一则轶事中 说的是
In an anecdote, story is told that
在1975年一个与保守党研究部门的会议中
in a meeting with a conservative research department in 1975,
玛格丽特·撒切尔针对政治哲学回应一家政策性报刊
Margaret Thatcher responded to a policy paper on political philosophy
她伸手进包包中 掏出了一本《自由宪章》
by reaching into a handbag and withdrawing a copy of “The Constitution of Liberty”.
把书高举着 撒切尔声明:这就是我们所相信的
Holding it aloft, Thatcher declared: this is what we believe.
随着20世纪的步伐不断向前 哈耶克的思想变得更加为大众所接受
As the 20th century unfolded, Hayek’s ideas gained more common currency.
国家应该限制其自身干预 制定一个法律框架
The notion that the state should limit itself to providing a legal framework
让企业家们可以在自由的市场中活动
within which entrepreneurs can engage with free markets
这样的观点已成为经济思想的核心
is now at the heart of much of economic thinking.
许多政治家和大部分公众
Many politicians and large sections of the public too
都质疑国家在规划和
are skeptical about the ability of the state to plan
实施哪怕是最简单的经济活动的能力
and undertake anything but the most simple of economic tasks.
这质疑跟哈耶克所警示的规划的反自由主义风险
And this as much to Hayek’s warnings about the anti-libertarian perils
以及规划者无法真正了解他们周围的世界一样
of planning and the inability of planners to truly understand the world around them.
即使当2008年经济危机席卷世界
Even when the financial crisis of 2008 hit the world economy,
致使长时间的萧条 对政府规划的信心
leading to a prolonged recession, faith in government planning
也没有被大众重拾
was not restored in the popular imagination.
对这最好的证明就是《通往奴役之路》
This was best testified too by “The Road to Serfdom”
在2010年初成为亚马逊畅销书排行榜第一名
hitting the number one spot on the Amazon book bestseller list in early 2010,
尽管这本书是60年前所著
despite it having been written over 60 years ago.

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视频概述

讲述了哈耶克的生平,特别是他的职业生涯,着重介绍了他的经济理论和两本经济著作

听录译者

霜霜

翻译译者

可可天使

审核员

赖皮

视频来源

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SHsCkinrCPE

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