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扑克定律-突破直觉

Poker Rule #1: To Win, Don't Privilege Your Gut Instincts | Poker Champ Liv Boeree

我猜你在打扑克牌的时候肯定会认为
So I guess the thing you have to think about in any given poker situation is that you’re
自己面临着很多不确定性 打扑克牌就是
dealing with a lot of uncertainty, and it’s all about how to make the best decision in
在某个确定的时刻做出最好的抉择
any given moment.
所以第一条经验法则就是当你手气好的时候
So the first rule of thumb is how to extract the most money or chips from your opponent
怎样从你对手那里赢得更多的钱 还有当你手气差时怎样把损失降到最小
when you have a strong hand, and how to lose the minimum when you have a weak hand.
你不能百分百确定你的牌到底好不好 你能赢吗?
And you’re never going to be a hundred percent certain where you are: Are you beating them
或者说你的手气是不是很差?
or do you have a worse hand?
所以你不得不想出一个在各种情况下都精确适用的策略
So you have to sort of construct a strategy that is mathematically optimal in each situation.
我想人们往往会认为他们的直觉是一种本能
Well, I guess people tend to think of intuition as their gut instinct and my rule of thumb
在扑克牌中我的经验就是 当我的逻辑思维没有得出任何结论性的答案时
in poker is to only fall on my gut instinct if my sort of logical, my slow brain, the
我只相信我的本能
system two as it’s sometimes called, has not come to any conclusive answer.
很多人通常会想 “好纠结啊 不知道该怎么办!” 然后就想
A lot of people are tempted to go, “This is too tricky, I don’t know!” and then go,
“好吧 我的直觉这样告诉我 那我就要这样做了”
“Yeah, well, my gut instinct says this; I’m going to go with that.”
其实最好的解决办法就是两种方式都用 你的逻辑思维还有你的直觉
But the best thing to do is to work with both, your sort of slow brain and that gut.
就比如说你和对手们正在打扑克 你也知道他们实际上
Say you were playing against your opponent and you’ve noticed that actually they’re
很友好 似乎从不会故意虚张声势 而且
someone who’s very solid, they never seem to bluff, and you might have a hand that you
你可以正常地摊牌(比如说90%的情况下)你知道他
would normally call with (say 90 percent of the time), but you know this guy, he’s just
从不虚张声势
never bluffing, never doing it.
好吧 实际上这就是这就是你失手的一种不常见的情形
Well, actually this might be one of those rare situations where you do throw your hand
在手法低劣时你有很强的感觉你不应该摊牌
in the muck, where you have a very strong feeling that you’re just not calling; even
尽管逻辑上来说你应该摊牌 你没有这么做
though mathematically it says it should call, you shouldn’t do it.
我猜扑克的艺术就是 当你有一瞬间的灵感
I guess the art part of poker is when you have these flashes of inspiration where you
不得不偏离数学和技术 科学的作用就在于 推出这种偏离
need to deviate from the math, and the science is knowing whether that deviation is the right
是否正确
thing to do at the time.
作为一个扑克牌玩家 当谈及到直觉的时候 我会说偶尔可以相信你的直觉
When it comes to your intuition as a poker player I would say do use it from time to
但是它不应该作为你的准则
time, but it should not be your starting point.
一般来说 你应该按照逻辑思维来分析
You, as a rule of thumb, should always go for the slow “system two” analysis, see
看看能想出什么答案 再检查下你的直觉
what answer that comes up with, and then also to check in with your gut.
打个比方说你现在手气很好 你也已经和对手下了赌注 通常情况下我会有
Say you’re in a really big hand, and your opponent has bet, often I’ll have an instinctive
本能反应 就像“那是吓唬人的”或者“他们手气真的很好”
response; I’ll be like, “Oh that’s a bluff,” or “they have a really strong hand,” and
我会记住这些想法 但是不会顺着它们做
I’ll make a note of it, I won’t just go with that answer.
“我们用数学方法来试一下 看一下其他的信息:
I’ll go, “Okay now let’s work through the mathematics, let’s look sort of through all
他们在其他扑克牌上做了什么 ?” 等等
the other bits of information: what have they done on other cards?” and so on, and then
然后看看这两个结果是否匹配
see if those two answers match up.”
如果相匹配的话 很好 我立即能得出结论 但是如果它们
Now, if they both match up, great, I’ve got an easy decision, but if one is giving a conflicting
相冲突的话 通常情况下你往往会相信
answer to the other, then usually you tend to rely on the sort of the mathematic/logic
用数学或者逻辑方法得出来的答案
part.
但是 如果直觉跟数学得出来的结果很相似的话
However, it’s really, really close with the mathematics, then I’ll fall back on that gut
我会转而去相信直觉
instinct.
但是一般而言 你的直觉并不会像你想的那么可靠
But as a rule of thumb your gut is not as reliable as you think.
你会在网上经常见到这样的句子 比如 “遵从你的
You often see these like memes on the Internet, which is just like, “Always go with your
内心
gut!
相信你的直觉!”等等
Trust your instincts!” and so on.
我个人认为那是一种逃避
And I personally think that’s a copout.
我想那是当我们面对一个很困难的决定时经常做的一种懒惰的解决办法
I think that’s often the lazy way out for when we are faced with a really tough decision
在生活中 好像“好吧 答案是X”
in life, of just going, “well… answer X.”
我们的大脑喜欢处理简单的事情 做一些简单明了的事 但是
Our brains they love to simplify things, to do things in black-and-white, but we live
我们生活在一个复杂的世界当中 那并不是最好的解决办法
in a very complex world, and that’s not always the best route to take.
简单来说 你的直觉可能会很有用 但是它应该作为最后的手段
So in a nutshell, your gut instincts can be useful, but as a last resort.
我们进化出这个神奇的大脑是有原因的 所以我们应该正确使用它
We’ve evolved of these amazing brains for a reason, so we should be using them.

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视频概述

当你打扑克出牌时都会考虑些什么呢?会不会相信你的直觉去出牌呢?在无聊和焦虑达到边缘时,判断对错不再是直觉,过去的经验是否可以弥补这个缺陷。

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翻译译者

Ljimnn

审核员

赖皮

视频来源

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=t8VIt9w2yr0

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