For most of our history, the human population grew slowly,
纵观历史 人口在多数时间里都增长缓慢
until new discoveries brought us more food and made us live longer,
直到我们发现更多土地用于种植作物并得以延长寿命
in just 100 years, the human population quadrupled.
仅仅100年的时间 地球上的人口就增长了3倍
This led to apocalyptic visions of an overcrowded Earth.
这使人们联想到人口过剩的末日景象
But the population growth rate
事实上 在20世纪60年代
actually peaked in the 1960s.
人口增长率才达到顶峰
Since then, fertility rates have crashed,
从那以后 随着各国的工业化和发展
as countries industrialize and develop .
人口出生率大幅下降
The world population is now expected to balance out
预计在本世纪末
at around 11 billion by the end of the century.
世界人口将保持在110亿左右
But the big picture conceals the details.
然而对大局的预测掩盖了细节
Let’s look at one region in particular
我们来看看这个特别的地方
Sub-Saharan Africa.
撒哈拉以南的非洲
In 2019, it was home to 1 billion people, living in 46 countries.
2019年 这里的46个国家人口总额达10亿
Although its growth rate has
虽然在过去几十年里
slowed down in the last few decades,
该地区的人口增长率有所下降
it’s still much higher than in the rest of the world.
但还是比世界上其他地区高了很多
While some projections
有的预测显示
expect around 2.6 billion people,
到2100年该地区人口将达到26亿
others reckon with up to 5 billion by 2100.
其他预测表明该区人口最多会达到50亿
Such growth would be a huge challenge for any society
这样的增长率对任何国家来说都是一个大挑战
But Sub-Saharan Africa is also the poorest region on earth
而撒哈拉以南的非洲还是世界上最贫穷的地区
So, Is Sub-Saharan Africa doomed?
那么 撒哈拉以南的非洲没救了吗？
And, Why do the projections
对当地人口数量的两种预测
vary by 2.4 billion people
为什么存在24亿的差距呢？
As always, it’s complicated
这一直是个复杂的问题
Sub-Saharan Africa is a made-up ideal
其实撒哈拉以南的非洲是个编造出来的概念
and in many ways an unhelpful one
对分析问题没什么帮助
Botswana is as far away from Sierra Leone,
博茨瓦纳与塞拉利昂之间的距离
as Ireland is from Kazakhstan,
与爱尔兰到哈萨克斯坦的距离差不多
and they have about as much in common.
他们之间的有许多共同点
But without generalizing a little bit,
若要详述
this video would be an hour long.
该视频会长达一个小时
We’ve also talked to many different scientists for this video
为了这期视频 我们咨询了不同领域的科学家
and they disagreed on a lot of things.
他们在很多问题上意见不一
Mainly on how much fertility matters to poverty.
特别是生育率对贫困有多大影响
We’ve done our best to summarize
我们已尽力将研究结果
our research and what they told us,
和科学家所说的整合起来
but take it with a grain of salt
不过 请对此持怀疑的态度
and check out our sources
去看看我们的信息来源
where we discuss this in more detail.
在那里我们会讨论更多细节
Okay, lets zoom out to the global perspective again.
下面我们再来看看地球上的其他地区
A few decades ago, many countries in Asia were
几十年前 许多亚洲国家的情况
at a similar point to Sub-Saharan Africa today
和现在撒哈拉以南的非洲相似
Large parts of the population were living in extreme poverty
这些国家有很大一部分人口极端贫困
and birth rates were very high
而且人口出生率又非常的高
Take Bangladesh,
以孟加拉国为例
in the 1960s the average woman
20世纪60年代 这里的女性
had 7 children in her life time.
平均一生会生育7个孩子
25% of them died before they turned 5
这些孩子中有25%在5岁之前就不幸夭折了
and of the ones that survived, only 1 in 5 would learn to read and write.
剩下的孩子中 仅有五分之一接受了教育
Life expectancy was around 45
人们的平均寿命为45岁左右
and per-capita income was among the lowest in the world
人均收入是世界上最低的
So beggining in the 1960s,
所以在20世纪60年代初
Bangladesh started a family planning program,
孟加拉国开始实施计划生育政策
based on 3 main pillars.
主要有三点内容
1.- Education helped to change women’s outlook.
第一 通过教育改变女性的思想观念
Women with a higher education tend to want
受过较高水平教育的女性不愿生太多孩子
fewer kids and become mothers later in life.
同时会推迟自己的生育年龄
2.- Better health care lowered child mortality,
第二 改善医疗条件以降低儿童死亡率
leading to parents wanting fewer children
这样一来 人们会少生一些孩子
because they could expect them to survive.
因为他们知道孩子的存活率很高
3.- Field workers brought contraceptives even to the remotest areas,
第三 工作人员甚至将避孕用品运到偏远地区
which drove contraceptive use from 8%
这使避孕用品的使用率从1975年的8%
in 1975 to 76% in 2019.
增至2019年的76%
Together these measures greatly slowed down population growth.
这一系列措施大大降低了人口增长率
In 1960 the average bangladeshi woman had 7 kids, in
1960年 孟加拉国每个女性平均有7个孩子
1995, 4 and in 2019 it was down to 2.
1995年为4个 2019年降至2个
This also changed the country’s demographics and the economy.
这些措施还改变了该国的人口结构和经济状况
Before, many children were born but died before they got to contribute to society,
此前 许多孩子在步入社会之前就死去了
as far fewer kids died and fewer kids were born
随着儿童死亡率和出生率的降低
things change.
情况发生了变化
Kids get an education and turn intro productive adults.
孩子们接受教育并成为对社会有用的人
The goverment was able to
孟加拉国政府可以把
shift some of their resources from lowering child mortality
用于降低儿童死亡率的部分资源
to boosting the economy.
转移到经济发展上
By 2024, Bangladesh is expected
预计到2024年
to graduate form the category of “Least developed countries”
孟加拉国将走出“最不发达国家”的行列
to the status of a “developing economy”.
并迈入“发展中国家”的行列
Other asian countries like South Corea, India, Thailand or the Philippines
其他亚洲国家 像韩国 印度 泰国以及菲律宾
have gone through a similar process often even faster.
经历类似转变的速度更快
Investment in health and education
政府在医疗和教育方面的投入
led to lower birth rates
使人口出生率降低
wich changed the composition of the population
因此改变了人口结构
and enabled goverments to boost the economy
政府得以发展经济
Why didn’t the same thing happened
为什么撒哈拉以南的非洲各地
everywhere in Sub-Saharan Africa?
都没有出现这种转变呢？
Africa as a whole has made
在降低儿童死亡率方面
considerable progress with childhood mortality.
整个非洲都取得了很大的进展
But specially in Sub-Saharan Africa education has improved slower
但是撒哈拉以南的非洲在教育方面发展缓慢
than in other parts of the world
落后于世界其他地区
and while in total contraceptive use
1990年以来
has doubled in the region since 1990,
该地区避孕用品的使用率增加了一倍
the unmet need for modern contraception among adolescents is still at about 60%.
但仍未满足60%的青少年对现代避孕用品的需求
The reasons for this are complicated
造成这种情况的原因很复杂
and it’s impossible to give a single answer here.
我们不可能给出一个单一的答案
Africa is a big place with diverse cultures and people,
虽然非洲幅员辽阔 有着多元的文化和民族
but there are a few main factors.
仍有几个主要因素导致了今天的局面
Many Sub-Saharan nations gave suffered under colonization
许多沙哈拉以南的非洲国家经历过殖民统治
untill only a few decades ago,
直到几十年前才结束
and had rough transition periods towards independece.
这些国家在独立之前经历了艰难的过渡时期
The young nations were often ethnically heterogeneous and lacked unity.
这些新成立的国家种族繁多 缺乏团结意识
Some areas have been repeatedly racked by civil wars,
有些地区不断发生内战 军事冲突
military conflicts or suffered under unstable goverments
或是政府动荡
wich made it really hard to expand infrastructure and health care.
因此很难推动基础设施建设和医疗卫生事业的发展
So Africa had a worse starting point than Asia.
所以非洲国家的起点低于亚洲国家
Foreign aid and how it was applied,
此外 冷战期间国外援助的干预
especially during the cold war is also a contentious issue,
对该地区的发展是好是坏还存在争议
but this topic is too complex to summarize in a few sentences
但这个话题过于复杂 三言两语无法说清
so we’ll make a whole video about it in the future.
针对这个话题 我们以后会专门制作一个视频
And lastly there are cultural aspects that make talking about
最后 文化方面的原因
family planning in the context of Africa difficult.
也使得计划生育政策很难在非洲推广
Critics say that trying to bring fertility down
反对者说限制生育
is an intrusion into culture and tradition
是对文化传统的侵犯
but not speaking about an issue will not help solve it.
但回避人口问题无益于它的解决
Not all of these things apply to every country in the region,
该地区并非所有国家都面临相同的状况
we’re talking about 46 countries after all,
毕竟撒哈拉以南的非洲有46个国家
some of them deeply troubled others already flourishing,
有的国家深陷困境 而有的国家蓬勃发展
all different and facing unique problems
他们各不相同 面临着不同的问题
If population growth continues at it’s present rate
如果人口继续以现在的速度增长
then Sub-Saharan Africa
那么到2100年
could growth to more than 4 billion people by 2100
撒哈拉以南非洲的人口将超过40亿
Okay so, What can be done?
那么 我们能做些什么呢？
Actually, a lot,
事实上能做的有很多
specially investments and aid that help to build systems
我们可以资助这些地区 帮助他们建立起
for education, family planning and health care.
教育系统 计划生育管理系统以及医疗卫生系统
Surprisingly small changes could have an extreme impact
小小的改变会产生意想不到的效果
For example if women get a better education and
例如 如果女性接受更好的教育
had their first child just 2 years later in life.
并推迟两年再生育第一个孩子
This tiny gap between this generation
仅推迟两年再生孩子
and the next one would lead to 4 hundred million people in 2100
到2100年 人口会增加4亿
with 3.6 billion in total.
人口总数达36亿
If education and family planning are made available to every african woman,
如果每一个非洲女性都能接受教育 有计划地生育
universal access to contraception,
并且避孕措施得到普及
makes having kids a decision.
那么人们便有权选择生育与否
If families get to choose how many kids they want,
如果每个家庭都能决定生育几个孩子
birth projections fall by 30%
预计到2100年出生率会降低30%
to 2.8 billion people.
人口总额为28亿
This isn’t just theory,
这并非纸上谈兵
there are already examples that are reason for optimism.
我们已有真实案例 对这样的结果有信心
Ethiopia, the african country with the second biggest population
埃塞俄比亚的人口数量在非洲排第二
has made a lot of progress in a relatively
这个国家在相对较短的时间里
short amount of time.
取得了很大进步
Improving health services,
他们改善了医疗条件
led to a drop in child mortality from 20% to 7% since 1990
自1990年以来 儿童死亡率从20%降至7%
and up to 30% of the annual budget was invested in education
国家的年度预算有30%用于投资教育事业
and the number of schools increased 25 fold over two decades
学校的数量在20年间增加了25倍
So sumarizing,
也就是说
there are serious challenges ahead but they are far from unsolvable,
虽然我们面临着严峻的挑战 但并非无计可施
Sub-Saharan Africa does not need pity or gifts
撒哈拉以南的非洲不需要怜悯或施舍
but attention and fair investment.
他们需要关注与合理投资
It’s a region rich in resources, culture and potential,
这里资源丰富 文化灿烂 发展潜力大
if things go right we’ll see
如果计划顺利实施
a turn around similar to the one we’ve seen
过去30年亚洲国家发生的变化
across most of Asia in the last 30 years
也会发生在这里
(Music)
［音乐］