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乐观主义者将决定未来 – 译学馆
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乐观主义者将决定未来

Optimists Decide the Future | "Wired" Founder Kevin Kelly

我持有的乐观主义
So, my optimism is rooted
根源于这样的事实:
in the fact that
从科学界的证据来看
for almost over 200 years
这200年里 每一年
every year has gotten a little bit better
都比上一年要好那么一点点
when we look at the scientific evidence.
虽说有可能
And while it’s possible
嗯…
that…
到下一年一切都会变化
next year everything could change,
一切(成就)都会土崩瓦解
that everything could collapse
化为灰烬
and fall to the ground,
但是在统计学上以及可能性上
statistically, probabilistically
这是不会发生的 应该会持续下去
it won’t it will continue
因为过去200年都是这么过来的
because 200 years has gone
所以
and
下一年应该还会继续下去
next year it probably will continue.
但如果你看看现在世界范围内的
But if you look at the kind of current political regime
政治体制以及
around the world and
充满各种
the factors of
压力、环境问题的现状
pressures, environmental pressures,
以及新媒体分散我们注意力
the pressures of distraction that we have
带来的压力
from the new media,
那我觉得你就应该保持希望
then I think you have to resort to hope.
长远看来
In the long term,
乐观主义将决定未来
optimists decide the future.
正是乐观主义者们
It’s the optimists who
能创造
create
我们生活中将会最重要的
all the things that are going to be most important
一切事物 因为正是乐观主义者们
in our lives, because it was optimists
开创了
who built
发明了我们现在生活中
and invented all the things that are now important
所有最重要的东西
in our current lives.
而且
And
我认为
I think
人们乐观起来
people behave better
会做的更好
when they’re optimistic.
怀有批判的态度
There’s absolutely a need
以及怀疑的精神
to be critical and
当然也很重要
doubtful and skeptical
甚至还需要
and…
悲观的态度
even pessimistic.
这就像一辆车
Just like if you have a car
必须得有刹车制动
you have to have brakes.
无论什么情况下 你都不能开一个没有刹车的汽车
You can’t have a car, no matter where it is, without brakes.
但是只有引擎
But it’s the engine,
乐观主义的引擎能够不断的向前走
the optimistic engine that keeps going and going
会拒绝停下脚步
and refuses to stop
会一心一意向前
and is only concerned about going forward
只有它才能驱动汽车
that really drives a car.
你当然必须要有刹车
But you certainly need brakes
来控制你的车
to steer it.
但我觉得
And I think
如果你只有刹车 你哪也去不了
if you have only brakes you don’t go anywhere.
而且我觉得我们现在的状况就是
And I think what we have right now
我们的乐观和悲观态度
is we have an imbalance
并不平衡
between pessimism and optimism,
我们真的还需要对未来充满
and we really need a lot more optimism
更多的乐观态度 为了
about the future in order to
让我们人生的引擎继续向前走
have the engine keep going.
我认为导致我们现在失衡状态
And I think that one of the reasons why we
的其中一个原因是
maybe have an imbalance right now is because
我们太经常被
we have been burned
乐观主义者的承诺
so often by the promises of the optimists
承诺高科技将引领我们走向乌托邦
about how technology is going to bring us
所打垮
a kind of utopia.
我觉得
And I think
没有人还会
nobody believes in
相信乌托邦了
utopia anymore.
我是肯定不会
I certainly don’t
但是反乌托邦实际上也没有更好
But dystopia is actually not any better, and
但那实际上是我们看待未来
that’s actually the only vision that we
的唯一方式
have of the future,
这是因为我们常受好莱坞影响
which is really sort of made by Hollywood
常看科幻小说 描述
in some science fiction,which is
一个地狱般的社会土崩瓦解
of a dystopia that collapses.
我的想法是
And I think that
尽管我们不能相信乌托邦
while we can’t believe in a utopia I think
我觉得看待未来更好的视角
a better vision of the future
是趋乌托邦
is protopia,
也就是相信我们会累积成就
this idea that we have incremental progress
我们会努力
that we’re working
一步一步
and creeping,
稳稳地 但也慢慢地
very, very steadily but slowly,
走向更好的未来
towards betterment.
所以
So
每一年都比上一年
every year is a little tiny better than
要好一点点
the year before.
不多 但是好一点点
Not much, but a little tiny better.
而这样累积的进步
And that kind of incremental progress
只有在你转身
is really only visible
看看过去走过的路时
when you turn around and look
才能察觉到
back behind you.
因为
Because
每年0.5%
Half
或者甚至1%的进步
or even a one percent difference
都不是我们能看出来的变化
is really something we can’t see every year.
也不是新闻里能看到的情况
And it’s not going to be seen in the news.
如果你看新闻 会发现都是一些
If you look at the news, the news is about
异常的事物
outliers.
都是不寻常的事
It’s about unusual things.
而不是关于
It’s not about
缓慢进步的证据
the slow evidence of progress
那些新闻里是没有的
which is not seen in the news.
所以如果你想看真实世界里发生的事
So if you want to see what’s really happening in the world
你就不能看新闻
you can’t look at the news.
你必须看一看
You have to look
一些科学的
at the scientific
证据 他们只占据
evidence, which is going to register
一个小角落
a very small delta
所以如果不转身回头看
that is really not visible
你是没有办法察觉的
unless you turn around and look behind you.
转身之后你会说:“啊 20年过去了”
And then you can see, “Oh, 20 years.
“这成真了”
This is real.”
所以
And so
趋乌托邦的态度
that sense of protopia,
对于小步小步积累
of a small incremental creep
以趋向更好未来的信心
towards betterment that
对于明年会比今年好一点点的信心
next year will be a little tiny better than this year
是我们能做到的最好的了
is really the best that we have.
但那又是非常强大的东西
But it’s a very powerful thing
因为它代表了文明
because that’s what civilization is.
人类文明
Civilization
不是一项历史纪念碑式的
is not monumental heroic
壮丽事业
enterprise.
它是几个世纪以来每一次
It’s the small creep of one percent betterment
1%进步的慢慢累积
through centuries.
我认为
And I think
只要我们相信
if we believe
进步是真实存在的
that progress is real
我们实际上就能做得更好
then we can actually behave better.
如果我们相信真的有进步
If we believe that progress is real
我们还能继续梦想着
we can still dream about
创造一些新事物
making these new things,
因为我们知道尽管
because we know that even though
新的科学技术会在解决问题
the new technologies are going to
的同时
introduce
带来同样多的
as many new problems
新问题
as they solve
我们也知道未来面临的许多问题
and that most of the problems we will have in the future
都会来自于新技术
will come from new technology,
我们还是会
we’ll still
继续向前
go forward
继续创造那些新东西
and make and invent those new things—
哪怕它们会带来新问题
even though they will create new problems.
因为那些新问题又会
Because those new problems themselves
催生
will birth
新的解决方法
new solutions,
然后再生新问题
which will have new problems.
但是
But that
这个回环往复的过程
circle and cycle
会一直不断循环
keeps going around and around and
而且每一个循环的革命
there’s a one percent net gain
都会有1%的净收获
for each revolution.
这就是乐观所能带来的
And that’s what we get out of this.
(音乐)
(Music)

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视频概述

尽管新科技会带来新问题,但是也会有新的解决方法。在无限的循环中,每一次都会有新的进展。发展总是一点一点小的进步的累积。

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陈榆木

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与光同尘

视频来源

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Emd6rSyebFY

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