My coauthor Erik Brynjolfsson and I are both at MIT, and we have a colleague at MIT who
said something that really helps me understand some of the last human work that I think is
ever going to be automated by even really sophisticated technology.
Our colleague’s name is Deb Roy.
He’s at the media lab.
And he points out that we humans are incredibly deeply social creatures,
we’re just a social species.
你说 对 这又怎样呢？
And you say okay so what?
蚂蚁也这样 蜜蜂也这样 黑猩猩也这样
So are ants, so are honeybees, so are chimpanzees.
Deb’s point is that the nature of human social interaction
involves some really deeply rooted social drives that don’t appear to be present in any other animal.
We came across a great quote when we were writing Machine Platform Crowd
from a sociologist or a primatologist who said,
“Look, you will never, ever see two chimpanzees carrying a log.”
That notion of cooperation is absent from even our closest nonhuman relatives.
So that gives me a whole new way to think about the kind of work that’s most innately deeply human,
it’s the work that taps into our social drives.
而且那些驱动力是积极的 是对他人团结 感到自豪 富有同情心
And those drives are both positive—there’s solidarity and pride and compassion for other human beings
也是消极的 他们可能会妒忌 可能感到羞愧 可能会嫉妒
—and they’re negative—they can be envy, they can be shame, they can be jealousy,
they can be antipathy towards some kind of other group out there
—but we have these drives they are very, very deep, they’re very strong
and they’re kind of hard to fool with technology.
So there are a lot of jobs out there that tap into, that makes use of,
that try to harness those social drives.
one of my favorite examples of a job that we don’t think of as this incredibly elite job
or this incredibly prestigious job but a job that is very unlikely, I believe,
to be replaced by technology anytime soon is just a girl’s soccer coach.
And that girl’s soccer coach may or may not be a strategic genius about the game of soccer,
但是 如果他们擅长这个工作 这个女足教练所能做的是
but what that person can do, if they’re any good at their job,
they can motivate a group of girls to come together
to overcome rivalries and jealousies and different kinds of pettiness
and play together as a team.
They can teach the value of some of those social drives like solidarity.
They can help some girls who are natural leaders but might be going through a difficult period
in their lives get past that and assume the roles that they’re going to be good at.
They can just deal in this incredibly rich mix of social things that are going on.
Let’s say we could build a computer that could figure out all the different social things
that are happening among a group of twenty-five 12-year-old girls.
我认为计算机实际上离我们很远 但是 比如说 我们甚至能设计电脑
I think that computer is actually a long way off, but let’s say we can even build that computer.
Would that computer, would that robot be able to motivate those girls, draw them together,
梳理出每一个人真正所擅长的事情 让她们克服疲劳 自我怀疑和所有事情
tease out what each is really good at, get them to overcome fatigue and self-doubt and all these things,
realize if they were having problems in the rest of their lives
and how to help them through that?
Again, one thing I’ve learned with technology is “Never say never.”
That automatic soccer coach feels like it’s a long, long, long way away from me.
So if I take that example and I project it out there are a lot of people who do some work
他们感觉不错的工作比如 那些老师 那些管理者
that feels a lot like that and those are teachers, those are managers,
those are folk who might be taking care of our more vulnerable populations
而且我认为他们是小孩子 病人 老年人 意志衰弱的人
and I think about the very young, the sick, the elderly, the infirm.
There are a lot of those vulnerable people out there,
and because of the richness of our social lives and our social drives
I just don’t see anyone,even really great innovators,
coming up with technologies that could just substitute for the people who are currently
doing those very very social jobs