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市场与投资

Observations on the Market & Investing

今天我们邀请到的嘉宾是巴里•里萨兹
So we’re here with Barry Ritholtz,
他是里萨兹财务管理公司的创始人和首席投资官
founder and chief investment officer of Ritholtz Wealth Management,
同时也是彭博特约编辑 《彭博视野》的专栏作家
also Bloomberg contributing editor or columnist for Bloomberg View
《商业大师》节目主持人
and host of Masters in Business,
和彭博的王牌商业播客
the iconic business podcast forBloomberg.
直接进入我们今天的主题吧
So let’s kick it off.
昨天 其实我们已经感受到了
Yesterday, finally feels like the markets are showing us
市场所展示给我们的周期性
that they are in fact cyclical,
那么接下来请给我们介绍一些相关背景
give us some background,
以及您对市场现状的看法吧
your view on what is happening in the markets.
没问题 2017年算得上是非同寻常的一年了
Sure 2017 was an unusual year.
我们的市场波幅极低
We had extremely low market volatility.
但政治波动性却是相当的高
We had crazy high political volatility.
但这就要另说了
But that’s a whole’nother conversation.
市场增长超过1%
We had very, very few days
或下跌超过1%的
where the market was up more than
情况少之又少
1% or down more than 1%,
一年以来的市场波动率都很小 这种情况十分少见
very, very unusual for a year to have that little volatility.
在2018年1月末2月初情况有所改变
That all seemed to change at the end of January come February.
每个人事后都
Everybody after the fact looks
在寻找一种更合理的解释
for a narrative explanation.
在我看来最通俗的解释是 市场跑得太快太远
I think the simplest explanation is markets just ran too far,
投资者将热情大量倾注于
too fast on investor enthusiasm
税收减征 全球经济增长
for the tax cuts, for global economic growth,
和利润上
for profits,
但从大局来整体考虑
but just to put this into context,
在过去的4个月里市场就增长了14%
the past four months the markets ran 14 %,
这一年对于上世纪仅8%到10%的平均水平已经很好了
a good year on average for the past century is 8 to 10 percent,
那么如果你一年里有三分之一的时间
so when you’re up better than 50 %,
盈利都超过了50%
more than an average year in a third of a year,
这就足以表明
that just means you
你最终得回归到正常水平
have to eventually come back to more normal levels
这也就是我们现在所处的情况了
and that’s what this seems to be doing.
那我们会不会回归到水平线上呢?
Isn’t this just regression to the main that
就是在近5年之内
on of five years
市场是否会下跌20%或者更多?
we have a decline of 20 % or more,
那如果我们在18年年底醒来时发觉
so if we wake up the end of 18
市场已达20000或18000点
and the markets are at 20,000 or 18,000,
会不会这只是
wouldn’t it just be
“对啊 本来就该这样”
”Well, of course they are.”
当然啊
Yeah.
那会不会出现反常情况
Wouldn’t it be a stranger case that the markets go to
市场上涨到30000点而不是20000点?
30,000 versus 20,000 right now?
我知道这是常态
I know this is normality,
市场上下波动
markets go up and down — that’s
这是市场的常态
what they’re supposed to do,
我们也注意到了一年中会出现多次5%回撤的情况
we usually see a couple of 5 % pull backs a year.
但这样我们可是有一阵子没遇到过了
We really didn’t see that for a while,
几乎是每隔一年才发生10%的回撤
10 % pull backs every other year?
这也是有一阵子没有发生的情况了
haven’t had that happen in quite a while either,
所以不定在某刻事情总会反转的
so at a certain point things just,
让我来为你们举个很贴切的例子
I’ll give you a perfect example —
从市场的长期趋势来看
when you look at the long-term trend of the market
是会被很多因素影响的
that’s driven by a lot of things
像经济恢复 企业盈利
like economic recovery, corporate profits,
人口变化
demographic changes —
这样我们就已经远远超过那条趋势线了
we got so far ahead of that trend line,
所以我们也只需
that if we simply just
回归正常的增长趋势线就好
pull back to a normal trend line of growth,
回归到道琼斯20000-22000点
you could be at 20-22,000
这才是正常的
on the Dow and that’s normal.
另外双边市场本来就是
Two-sided markets are what they’re
上下波动的
supposed to do — up and down.
很明显
You’re obviously in the business of
您也有估算阿尔法值
trying to identify alpha.
那么就您来看的话今年剩下的日子
When if you look at the rest of the year,
什么时候会出现牛市行情 什么时候会出现熊市行情?
make the bull case, make the bear case?
我并不知道接下来会发生什么
I have no idea what’s gonna happen
而且我也从来都不试着去猜测
and I never try and guess,
我只会从新闻标题中来推测
I try and tease out what’s really going
到底发生了什么
on in the underneath the the headlines,
如果了解我们的实际现状
because if you understand where we are today,
就能更清楚
it gives you a much better sense
我们的未来将会通往何处
of positioning yourself to where we’re going to be in
而不是去凭空猜测
the future as opposed to I’m gonna guess that
比特币的价值会
Bitcoin will be “fill in the blank”
达到15000 10000或5000美元
fifteen thousand, ten thousand, five thousand —
我们不会去猜测 我们看的是
rather than do that, we look at
就像你提到的均值回归
— you mentioned mean regression —
我们看的是各类资产的长期价值
we look at long term valuations, long term trends of
和长期走势
various asset classes.
我们从很多的学术文献中得知
We know from all the academic literature,
长期来看 价值股表现得比成长股好
over long periods of time, value outperforms growth,
小盘股表现得比大盘股好
small cap outperforms large cap,
拥有一个涵盖海外投资的多元投资组合
having a diversified portfolio including
可以有效减少
overseas holdings reduces your risk for a
像我们这周看到的以美国为中心的事件发生的风险
US-centric event like we’ve seen this week.
而不是试着去猜测
So rather than try and guess hey
嘿 我们要像这样移动桌面的筹码
we’re gonna move our chips on the table
不管它对不对
like this and either be right or wrong,
在某种程度上 我们像是对全世界的资产类别
we kind of put a bear hug
做狗熊式拥抱然后说
around the entire world asset classes and say
无论市场通往何处 我们都会参与市场上行
wherever the market goes we will participate in the upside,
同样要意识到我们也会进入市场下行
somewhere but also recognizing we’re also gonna participate in the downside.
从全球来看 哪种资产类别是被低估了的?
What asset class globally is undervalued right now?
美股的价值已完全反映 可以说是很贵了
So US stocks are fully valued or expensive.
当我们看向欧洲时
When we look at Europe,
欧洲股票相对便宜些或者更接近公允价值
they’re cheaper or closer to fair value,
我不是说他们特别便宜
I wouldn’t say they’re dirt cheap,
但确实要比美股便宜的多
but they’re much cheaper than US or
或者说在一定程度上要比美股便宜一些
somewhat cheaper than the US.
然后是新兴市场
And then emerging markets,
顺便提一下
and by the way,
我们已经说了两年了
we’ve been saying this now for about two years —
总的来说 新兴市场是最便宜的
– emerging markets are by and large the cheapest.
那么 我们也会看跌美股
So, potentially underweight USstocks,
看涨新兴市场和欧洲市场
overweight emerging markets and Europe.
今天早上您在这里
When you walked in here this morning,
谈论到了一般投资者不仅在市场上表现不佳
you talked about how average investors underperform not only the markets,
他们的投资组合也差强人意
but their portfolio.
这是一个不可思议的数据点
It’s a fascinating data point.
所以人们 对啊
So people, yeah
追求阿尔法值和贝塔值 贝塔值取决于市场
to alpha and beta, beta is what the market gives you,
阿尔法是超过期望收益的部分
alpha is that out performance which
这在长期投资中
is exceedingly rare and very difficult to
是极其罕见并且非常艰难的
do over extended periods of time.
有些人就会说 这是不可能做到的
Some people say, impossible.
那还有选股呢?
Stock picking?
选股啊
Stock picking,
择时交易 复杂对冲
market timing, complex hedging —
可以通过很多不同的方法
there’s a whole bunch of different ways
做到高收益
that it could be done
能做到的人通常是全明星
and the people who do it are the all-stars.
问题并不在于技术失灵了
The problem is that it’s not that that skill deteriorates,
也就是说无论技术有多牛逼
it’s that whatever that unique skill is,
市场总能消化它
markets kind of figure it out.
所以很多人
And so a lot of people
并不打算去追逐阿尔法值
and have decided we’re not going to chase alpha,
更多人会选择接受贝塔值
we’re going to accept the beta
因为我们一路以来看到的是
because what we’ve seen over time is as you try
只要你尝试去超越市场 结局一般都会无功而返
and outperform the market, you often end up not outperforming,
不仅错失了贝塔值 还会不如预期
but missing the beta and underperforming.
其实很多活跃的基金经理都是表现不佳的
In fact huge swathes of active managers underperform,
并且在我们给出高昂的投资前这就已经属实了
and that’s before we get into expensive fees that
这些投资分别使黑石集团拥有6万亿
has resulted in Blackrock being sixtrillion dollars,
先锋集团拥有5万亿美元的资产
Vanguard being five trillion dollars of assets —
这都是大企业的例子 那我们来列举些个人的
these are the big indexers and so people are starting,
夫妻店也是人们开始意识到一个实际问题
mom-and-pop are starting to wise up to the fact
就是“嘿 你知道吗
that” Hey, you know if I just
如果我拥有品种丰富的全球资产组合
own a broad portfolio
和低成本的基金或交易型开放式指数基金
of global assets and low-cost funds or ETFs
并且我每年再调整一次
and I rebalance once a year
接受全球市场带给我的好处
and I take what the global market gives me.
这样可能就会比
That’s probably gonna outperform
我90%的小伙伴的状况要好很多了
what 90% of my peers are doing.
还有人具体计算过
People have figured this out,
只有约20%的投资公众
but only about 20% of the investing public
可以达到那个水平
has figured that out.
因此对冲基金手头的资金表现
So hedge funds underperforming the S & P
不如标准普尔指数
by the amount of their fees
—很多都是这样 —而且有数额巨大的资金
plus some and then we’ve seen an enormous reallocation of
从主动管理变为被动管理
capital out of active management into passive –
比如黑石集团 先锋集团的低成本交易型开放式指数基金
the BlackRocks, the Vanguard’s low-cost, ETFs.
看起来现在每个人都到了那个阶段
It seems like everyone’s on to that now,
这是不是意味着
does that mean potentially we’re
随着频繁的波动
about to enter another great era of stock picking
我们也会进入到一个选股的新时代
as volatility picks up,
然后你就得再找一个价值所在地了?
and you have to actually find value places?
毫无疑问
There’s no doubt that as
随着越来越多的人走向被动
more and more people move to passive,
这也会为真正活跃的基金经理创造机会
it creates an opportunity for true active managers.
比尔•米勒
Bill Miller,
这个在华尔街
who at the street
在15年中每年都能跑赢市场的人
that lasted 15 years of outperforming the market every year,
指出了那些所谓的积极管理
has pointed out that what is purported to be active management
私下都是指数追随者
is really closet indexers —
那些总守着基准收益的理念的人
people hugging the benchmark —
嘿 你是不会被炒鱿鱼的
hey you don’t get fired for just doing a little
你只比市场做好了或坏了一丢丢
better or a little worse than the market.
如果你想
If you want to
积极参与
participate on the active side,
你就得找到那些主动投资型的
you want to find managers who have what’s
基金经理
described as large active share,
也就是说他们的投资组合和基准是非常不同的
meaning their portfolios differ significantly from what the benchmark is,
如果你采取这个策略的话
and you’re either gonna win a lot or lose a lot
要么就会赚很多 要么就会赔很多
with that strategy,
但是你不会将钱交给那些
but you’re not gonna pay up for somebody who’s essentially
只会给你基准收益的人
giving you benchmark returns
这是一个不同的思考过程
and that’s a different thought process,
因为它反映的是实际
because it reflects a reality
也是大多数人不愿意相信
that most people really don’t want to believe,
但是的确属实的真相了
but it’s true.
如果你想要有上涨的可能
If you want potential upside,
你就必须愿意接受潜在的下跌
you must be willing to accept potential downside.
风险就像一枚硬币的正反面
Risk is a two-sided coin,
这就是众多投资者在过去一周所学到的
as investors have learned over the past week.
记得您说过存在某种行为经济学
But you’ve said there’s a certain behavioral economic
我们主观的思维其实有点
that the brain is actually a little bit,
或者说我们的情感 是我们的敌人
or our emotions I should say, is an enemy,
您还谈到我们的资产表现不佳
and say more about that we underperform our assets
是情绪化和下意识的反应
and in the market place is emotional knee-jerk or gag reflex.
这里有项达尔巴公司每年都会做的研究
So, there’s a study done every year by Dalbar
关于一般投资者的回报
that looks at average investor returns,
他们发现
and some of the things they’ve discovered is
投资者有一个倾向
there’s a tendency for investors,
而这种倾向开始变得弱了一些
and this is starting to attenuate a little bit,
我们在90年代见过很多
we saw a ton of it in the 90s,
但是它今天仍然存在
but it still exists today,
人们总会被那些华而不实的东西所吸引
people are attracted by bright shiny objects,
那么当你看到一个基金经理
and so when you have a fund manager
在当月
who’s shooting the lights out that month,
当季 甚至可能当年表现很好
that quarter, maybe even that year,
他们上电视 登上杂志封面
they go on TV, they get the magazine cover,
他们突然间火了
all of a sudden they’re a hot name,
在这样巨大的哄抬之后
money just pours into their funds after
将大把资金投入到他们的基金中
it’s had this giant run-up.
这可能是买入的最坏时机
That’s probably the worst time to buy something,
当你想要购买时
when you want to buy,
可能是在它大抛售之后
it is after it’s had a horrific sell-off there,
但过程仍然是合理的
but the process is still valid,
所以人们总是分不清结果和过程
so people confuse outcomes with process,
很难区分技巧和运气
it’s very difficult to separate skill from luck,
人们不停地追逐着热点
and very often when people are chasing
这是屡见不鲜的
some of these hot,
比特币就是最好的例子了
look at bitcoin as a perfect example —
如果你在5美分或5美元
if you own it at five cents or five dollars
或甚至500美元的时候买入
or even five hundred dollars —
嘿 这是一个很好的交易 你已经做得很棒了
hey that’s a fantastic trade, you’ve done well,
但凡是进来投机的人
but everybody who piled into thisspeculative,
我不管是货币 技术
I don’t know, currency, technology,
不管你要怎么称呼它
I don’t know what you want to call it —
在它的价值达到12000 15000 19000美元时
at 12,000, 15,000, 19,000,
你明白 你这就是在赌博
you know, you’re just rolling the dice.
今天早上
This morning it was
成交价在6000美元之下
trading under six thousand dollars and
价格看起来仍然很高
that still seems like a pretty rich number
但是当它不起眼并且不值钱的时候
but we don’t tend to go out and hunt these things
我们不会倾向于追逐它们
when they’re unappealing and low value,
我们总是追逐热点新事物
we tend to chase the hot new thing
比特币就是诠释这个的一个好例子
and Bitcoin is a perfect example of how —
《华盛顿邮报》里有一篇文章
there was an article in The Washington Post,
叫做“比特币是我的退休计划” 真的这样吗?
“Bitcoin Is my Retirement Plan” — really?
那你只能吃猫粮了
You’re gonna be eating cat food,
这个恐怖的想法 也许这可以实现
that’s a horrible idea, maybe it works out,
或许也不会
maybe it doesn’t,
但你不妨去维加斯
but you might as well go to Vegas,
投机风险还是同样的
it’s the same sort of speculative risk,
现在人们正趋向于
and the tendency that people have
不做投资
is to not make investments.
我们非常不善于把长期运营概念化
We’re very bad at conceptualizing the long run.
就像过去30年里
Like 30 years from now,
既定的星期一里市场发生了什么
what happened on a given Monday in the market
完全没有关系
is gonna be pretty irrelevant,
但是如何维护投资组合
but how you maintain your portfolio
并且如何思考风险
and how you think about risk
这会决定你的结局
is what’s going to determine your outcome.
我们都倾向于做的另一件事
The other thing we all tend to do,
就是很容易在闪光灯和喧闹声中
it’s very easy to get caught up
犯糊涂
in all the flashing lights and noises,
你知道美国全国广播公司财经频道和彭博报道的
and you know CNBC and Bloomberg
都是这些场景
has the screens with all these things.
这是个视频游戏
It’s a video game.
我记不清从谁那里引用这句话了
I don’t remember who I’m stealing this quote from,
表达的是
but the expression
“股票真的会阻碍长期投资”
“Stocks really get in the way of your long-term investing.”
这很好地诠释了我们作为人类的表现
says a lot about how we behave as humans.
那么如果您是一个理财经理
So you’re a wealth manager,
我会给您一些场景
I’m going to give you a couple scenarios
然后请您大致谈谈该如何配置资金
and you tell me how you would loosely speaking allocate their funds.
我是一个25岁的
I’m a 25 year old
在纽约混得不错的
making a good living in New York,
总之是这些人中的任意一个
any of these people,
这些人1年里可以有几千美元的存款
who can save a few thousand bucks a year
可能是3千或5千
or maybe three thousand, five thousand
并且开始做长期打算
and starting to think about hopefully long term.
他们会怎么做?
What do they do?
就买交易型开放式指数基金啊
Just an ETF,
很明显他们比我们更能承受风险
obviously they can incur more risk than most of us,
他们该怎么做呢?
what do they do?
那么 他们应该把钱全部用来买股票
So, they should be a hundred percent equity portfolio,
他们应该喜欢股市大跌
they should be rooting for a stock market crash,
因为如果市场下跌20% 30% 40% 50%
because if markets fall 20, 30, 40, 50 percent
他们会展望后50年
they’re looking out 50 years,
25岁的人将会在
25 year-olds are gonna be retiring
50 60年后退休
50, 60 years from now,
不是55或68年
it’s not 55 or 68.
所有的股票都很便宜吗?
All equity is low cost?
对于今天而言 对的
For today, right.
全球投资组合
Global portfolio,
他们可以买很多 4或5支
they could do a bunch of, four or five
低成本的交易型开放式指数基金
low-cost ETFs,
你可以买美国的 买海外的
you have US, you have overseas,
欧洲的 或者买新兴市场的
Europe, you have emerging markets.
如果他们想拥有一支科技基金
If they want to own a tech fund
他们生于科技时代 为什么不这样做呢
because they relate to technology, why not?
这当然是你可以做的事
Why not? It’s certainly something you could do.
更大的波动性 但是没关系
More volatility, but it doesn’t matter.
当他们50岁的时候
When they turn 50,
可能想要把投资组合改为
they might want to shift that to
80%的股票 20%的债券
80% equity, 20% bonds,
这么做是为了在市场上下跳动的时候
what that does is give them a little balance
来平衡资产
when the market goes up and down.
现在他们快退休了
And now they’re closer to retirement,
他们不想思考
they don’t want to think about
“天哪 下跌30%真的是很大一笔钱”
”Gee a 30% drop is really a lot of money.”
随着他们年纪更大
and as they get older they move more towards
他们就会转向一个传统的60/40投资组合
a traditional 60/40 portfolio,
但是老规矩是 把你的年龄减去100
but the old rule of you take your age minus a hundred whatever
得到你应该拥有的债券数
and that’s how much bonds you should have
这种规则已经不再受用了
is out the window.
当你还很年轻的时候 你可以承担很多风险
When you’re young you can have a lot of risk,
只要你
as long as you
不要感情用事就好了
don’t allow your emotions to get in the way.
我无法告诉你
I can’t tell you
有多少人在2009年春天
how many people in the spring of 2009,
经历了57%的暴跌
after holding on through a 57% collapse,
最终放弃股价并且说
and equity prices finally threw in the towel and said
“我受不了了 我要出局”
“I can’t take any more, I’m out.”
这就是市场底部形成的原因
and that pretty much is how crash bottoms get made.
27岁 来自商业学校
27, coming out of business school,
你正在思考金融服务 思考媒体
you are thinking about financial services, thinking about media,
思考科技
thinking about tech,
你就是一个经济动物
you’re just an economic animal,
像大多数27岁的人一样
like most 27 year olds,
你并不完全确信这辈子想干什么
you’re not entirely sure what you want to do with your life,
但是你知道你需要财务保障
but you know you want financial security
或你想要向上走
or you want to ride an upswing,
你觉得哪个方向前景不错?
which sector do you think holds the most promise?
我并不想要回避问题
I’m not looking to duck the question,
我想给你一个全面的回答
I want to give you a fuller answer —
我觉得作为一个最近毕业的人 你需要做3件事
I think you need to do three things as a recent graduate.
你得明白自己是一个自由代理人
You have to understand that you’re a free agent,
我觉得每个在那个年纪的人都明白这个道理
and I think everybody of that age understands that,
但是这意味着你得建立自己的品牌
but that means you need to build your brand
那是媒体 社会和自我意识的结合
and that’s a combination of media and social and self-awareness.
如果你不理解编程基础
If you don’t understand the basics of coding,
如果你不能构建一个基本的网站
if you can’t build a basic website,
如果你不能使用Excel
if you can’t work with Excel,
你就落后于同辈很多了
you’re at an enormous disadvantage from your peers,
然后说到金融 让我来告诉你
and then finance, I’ll tell you,
你开一家公司 我开一家公司
you run a company, I run a company,
我们都不是5岁小孩子了
we’re not even five years old,
所有事情都需要很长的学习曲线
that has been an immense learning curve
从算工资
in everything from compliance to payroll
到法律 到会计
to legal to accounting.
如果你毕业于商业学校
If you’re coming out of business school,
你应该明白做生意的细节
you should understand the details of running a business,
因为你的人生真的就是你的生意
because your life is really going to be your business
无论结尾处是有限责任公司
and whether or not it has an LLC or an S corp
还是股份公司
at the end of it,
拥有财务技巧
having those financial skills
拥有社会技术和媒体技巧
and having those social technology and media skills
真的是你未来成功中重要的一部分
are an important part of your future success.
你自己就是一个典型的例子
You’re a perfect example,
我自己是一个典例 懂财务
I guess I’m a perfect example, understanding finance,
懂媒体 懂科技
understanding media, understanding technology,
如果你想做未来的雇员或企业家
goes a long waiting getting to you
还需要漫长的等待
as a future employee or entrepreneur,
没有这3个技巧的话
and without all three of those skills,
你真的处于劣势地位
you’re really at an enormous disadvantage.
那么这里有一系列问题
So series of questions,
试着拉下所有屏幕
try to bring down all screens
就根据你的直觉作出回答
and just go with your gut in terms of an answer,
你得承认没有人有超级无敌魔幻预测水晶球
recognizing none of us have a crystal ball.
18年底
End of’18 –
市场会涨还是跌?
markets higher or lower?
稍微涨一点
Slightly higher.
加密货币 比特币现在是6000美元
Cryptocurrency, Bitcoin $6,000 now,
超过20000或低于1000美元
above 20,000, less than a thousand,
你觉得哪一个更有可能?
which do you think is more likely?
我打赌价格会低于1000美元
I would bet less than a thousand.
首次代币发售会是中小企业融资的一种新手段还是一个骗局?
ICO’s a new means of financing small companies or fraud?
到现在首次代币发售中存在着很多骗局
Well there’s been a lot of fraud in it so far,
所以说它是骗局 这不为过
so saying fraud isn’t a big leap,
首次公开募股存在着一个问题
there’s an issue with IPOs
小部分公司如何公开上市
and how few companies are coming public,
这值得稍微调整思考一下
that needs to be tweaked a little bit.
首次代币发售会消失
ICO’s going away
还是会成为小公司融资的手段?
or gonna be a source of financing for small companies?
近期历史显示它们在世界上出现的时间并不长
The recent history suggests that they’re not long for the world
除非有重大的变化
unless there’s a major change.
明白
Got it.
你知道吗 这是一个毒蛇之巢
You know it’s a Viper’s nest.
2017年 首次代币发售比首次公开募股筹得了更多的钱
2017, more money raised in ICO’s than IPO’s.
是啊 这太不可思议了
Yeah that’s amazing
我知道这很疯狂 第一个价值万亿美元的公司?
I know it’s crazy – first trillion dollarcompany?
一年前 我可能看好苹果公司
A year ago, I would have said Apple
现在我正倾向于亚马逊
now I’m leaning towards Amazon.
一个公司正在成为
A company that’s going to be
这个泡沫的典型代表
the poster child for this bubble,
请说出一 两支你觉得会下跌80%的股票?
one or two stocks that you think could just go down 80%?
我正等着西尔斯百货倒闭
I’m waiting for Sears to go out of business.
这有点像落井下石?
That’s like kicking a horse when it’s down!
你知道我已经花了8年时间
Can I tell you I waited eight years
等着布洛克巴斯特公司倒闭吗?
for Blockbuster go out of business?
事物灭亡往往比想象中要慢得多
Things die usually slower than they’re supposed to.
慢得多 这太不可思议了!
Much slower, it’s amazing!
我不知道什么时候有了这种想法
I don’t know when it happens,
但是我有点觉得Facebook会成为下一个Myspace
but I kind of think Facebook becomes the next Myspace.
真的吗?还有其它你觉得会下跌80%的
Really? Any others that you think could go down 80%,
然后我们会说 是的 它当然会下跌 这种股票吗?
and we’d say, well of course it did?
我不会对一些公司股价下跌一半
I won’t be surprised to see
感到惊讶
some company get cut in half.
对的 由于丑闻对吗?
Yeah, on a scandal?
嗯嗯 由于性侵犯 性骚扰丑闻
Yeah on a sexual assault, sexual harassment scandal.
福克斯新闻震惊到我的是
What’s shocking to me about Fox News
这事怎么存在这么长时间还没有人发现
is how long that went on without anybody finding out about it
而且他们是一个上市公司
and they’re a public company.
这可能会导致股价下跌
That might have led to the sale,
对吧 它可能已经
all right, that could have been —
这当然是一个因素
It certainly was a factor,
这应该纳入考量
we better hit that bid
要趁热打铁
while there’s still a bid to hit.
那么你在做播客
So you’re doing podcast,
就你自己的经验而言
what do you see
你对那个媒体——播客 有什么看法?
in terms of your own experience with that medium – podcast?
播客是我每周最大的乐趣
That’s been the most fun I have every week,
这绝对很令人着迷
it’s absolutely fascinating.
不仅仅是我会和像你一样
Not only do I get to sit
有趣的人坐在一起
with people like you which is really interesting,
而且你可以聆听别人的观点
but you get to hear from people —
这是我挤掉自己的泡沫(更新信息)
that’s one of the ways I’ve
的方法之一
worked out of my own bubble —
我邀请了杰布•布什的竞选经理
I brought in Jeb Bush’s campaign manager,
那个叫做麦克•墨菲的家伙
the guy who, Mike Murphy,
他倡导条约权利
who ran his pact rights arise.
布鲁斯•巴特利特是被里根任命的人
Bruce Bartlett was Reagan appointee,
虽然他是一个有趣的人
and although he’s an interesting guy
因为他是一个终身保守主义者
because he’s a lifelong conservative
但是被布什任用
but tapped out under Bush and basically said
而且他说共和党人已经失去了理智
the Republicans have lost their minds —
我试着从金融界外寻找嘉宾
I try and find people from outside of just finance.
但是媒体衰退了?
But the mediums taking off?
我感觉播客是为数不多的
My sense is podcasts are one of the few kind of mediums,
真的很高人气的媒体之一
and media that is really on a high key.
那么这里有一个每个金融人士都会忽略的小秘密
So here’s the little secret that everybody in finance ignores,
至少在金融媒体中
at least in financial media,
那些想要坐在沙发上看财经电视的人 他们会想知道
who wants to sit on a couch and watch financial television,
你最喜爱的股票是哪一支?
what’s your favorite stock?
美联储会做什么?
what’s the Fed gonna do?
道琼斯指数将会走向何处?
where’s the Dow going to be?
在下次广告后作出回答 这真的很可恶
coming up after the next commercial is pretty heinous.
另一方面
On the other hands,
和某个成功人士
the opportunity to take a deep dive
进行深度交流
with somebody who is clearly successful,
在某种程度上
has something to say,
这个人思想深刻 有教养 聪明
is thoughtful, educated, intelligent
并且乐意给你一个小时
and is willing to give you an hour
或一个半小时
or an hour and a half,
这多么难以置信啊!
that’s unbelievable!
播客就是这样的
The podcast started,
我创建《商业大师》的原因
the reason I created Masters in Business was
是因为令我着迷的某个人
because someone who I was fascinated by,
将会在财经电视秀中露面
would show up on a financialtelevision show
他们将用6分钟给出一些回答
they would get their six minutes, give a few answers,
然后他们会离开赶下一场
and then they’re off to the next one,
那么我就会想 不
and I’m like no,
把那个家伙请回来 再让他讲一个小时
bring that guy back for an hour and let him talk,
你在干啥啊?
what are you doing?
霍华德•马克斯 雷•达里奥 比尔•米勒 比尔•格罗斯
Howard Marks, Ray Dalio, Bill Miller, Bill Gross,
一路看下去 这些名单里的人都有非凡成就
go down the list of these people who are incredibly accomplished,
但是比尔•麦克纳布现在是先锋集团的主席
but Bill McNabb is now the chairman of Vanguard,
是前任首席执行官
was the former CEO,
大卫•布斯创建了Dimensional Funds Advisor
David Booth created dimensional funds advice,
对的 有一连串的嘉宾
yeah there’s a run of people,
现在已经达到200人了
I’m coming up on 200 now,
这个节目不应该存在
that this show shouldn’t exist
因为电视节目制作者应该在几十年前就推出这个节目了
because the producers of television should have figured this out decades ago.
相反 他们看似觉得
Instead they seem to think
他们要报道有图
they’re covering a football game withthe graphics
有音效和人员进出的足球赛
and the sound effects and the in-and-out stuff,
投资应该是长期的 长达几十年
investing is supposed to be over the long term, over decades,
那些一瞬即逝的东西不是你应该做的
that fast fast fast stuff is not what you should be doing,
至少我是这么想的
at least in my opinion,
而且我觉得其他人认同的不仅是
and I think other people agree not just
这是彭博上下载量最高的播客
this has become the most downloaded podcast at Bloomberg,
而且也是自从我开了这个节目
but also since I launched this,
很多类似的播客就出来了
a dozen similar type podcasts have come out,
有的是只关注科技或价值投资或无论什么
some with a narrower focus on technology or value investing orwhatever,
这真的很好
and that’s really fascinating.
这不仅是电视的黄金时代
It’s not only the golden age of television,
也是播客和投资的黄金时代
but it’s the golden age of podcast and investing.
如果你想要学投资
If you want to learn about investing,
我一直都从商学教授那里收到邮件
I get emails all the time from business professors,
“嘿 我今年给班级布置了6节《商业大师》
” Hey I assigned six of your Masters in Business
作为任务”
to my class for an assignment this year.”
我从人们那里得知
I get stuff from people
“我每周末得开两小时的车
”I have to drive two hours each weekend
路上我就听几个播客”
and I listen to a few of the podcasts on the way”
简单地说就是
or back or just simply,
“嘿 我的跑步机坏了
” Hey my treadmill sucks
是你让这45分钟过得更快了”
and you make that 45 minutes go by faster.”
非常精彩 巴里•里萨兹
Good stuff, Barry Ritholtz,
里萨兹财务管理公司的创始人和首席投资官
founder and chief investment officer of Ritholtz Wealth Management.
非常感谢 巴里
Thanks very much Barry.
也感谢你的邀请 斯科特
Thanks for having me Scott.

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视频概述

聆听商业大佬的投资观点

听录译者

收集自网络

翻译译者

SuMMerYin

审核员

审核员 D

视频来源

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RWAWxvxxfDI

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