未登录,请登录后再发表信息
最新评论 (0)
播放视频

零碳排放世界的 3 条规则

Nigel Topping: 3 rules for a zero-carbon world | TED

My grandfather grew up in the northwest of England,
我的祖父在英格兰西南部长大
surrounded by over 1000 coal mines
在他的家乡维甘仅仅5英里的范围内
within just 5 miles of his hometown of Wigan.
就有1000多个煤矿
And today I’m speaking to you from the side of another former mine.
今天我们从另一座废弃的矿山说起
This time a china clay mine of the Eden Project in southwest England.
它是英格兰西南部伊甸园工程中的一座瓷土矿
The generations, my grandfather’s ancesters were coal miners.
我祖父的祖辈是煤矿工人
And it would’ve been only natural for him to follow in their footsteps.
对他来说 追随他们的脚步是再自然不过的事了
But he didn’t want to go down the mine.
但是他并不想下矿井
He chose a different path and got a scholarship to study mathematics.
他选择了一条不同的道路 获得奖学金去学习数学
And years later, I followed him into mathematics
几年后 我跟随他进入了数学领域
where I discovered a real love of patterns
在那里我发现了自己对图案
and figuring out the underlying rules that generate them.
以及找出它们产生的潜在规则的热衷
And later when I went to work in industry,
后来我去了工厂工作
I realized that every human system and every natural system
我意识到每一个人类系统 每一个自然系统
can be thought of as a set of repeating patterns.
都可以被认为是一组重复的模式
For example, take the energy system,
比如说 能量系统
we can still trace the patterns of our reliance on fossil fuels
我们可以将我们对化石能源的依赖模式
all the way back to the early 1700s
一直追溯到18世纪初
when we started to really use all that coal.
那时我们就已经开始大量使用煤炭
And to tackle climate change,
而为了应对气候的变化
we’re gonna have to move towards new patterns that are based on clean power.
我们必须转向基于清洁能源的新模式
When I wasn’t exploring patterns,
当我不再研究模式时
I was developing a love of wild places,
我爱上了野生环境
particularly cold wild places like Greenland, Iceland and Patagonia.
尤其是像格陵兰岛 冰岛 巴塔哥尼亚这样严寒的野生地区
And it was there that I first came face-to-face
在那里我第一次切切实实
with the physical impact of climate change.
感受到了气候变化带来的影响
In 1987, I was supposed to be working at the end of a glacier in east Greenland.
1987年 我本该在东格陵兰岛的冰川尽头工作
And when we got to where it was shown on the map,
但当我们达到地图上显示的地方时
there was no ice there.
那里没有冰山
it had retreated by over 15 kilometres
与地图绘制之时相比
since the map had been surveyed.
冰山已经消退了超过15公里
Something was changing the patterns.
某些东西正在改变现有的模式
And now I find myself in the role of the United Nations’ Climate Action Champion
现在我是联合国气候行动倡导者的一员
working with an amazing network of partners
与一个出众的线上合作伙伴合作
to change the patterns of the global economy to tackle the climate crisis.
通过改变全球经济模式来应对气候危机
Our mission is to help drive the transition to the zero-carbon future
我们的使命是帮助推动向零碳未来的转型
to keep global warming below 1.5°C
将全球变暖控制在1.5摄氏度
or 2.7°F,
或者说2.7华氏度之内
and to prevent the worst impacts of climate change.
并防止对气候变化的最坏影响出现
Well, tackling the climate crisis can be really overwhelming,
嗯 解决气候危机的任务可能是非常艰巨的
especially if you try and look at it through the lenses of politics or economics.
特别是当你试图从政治或经济的角度来看
It’s a huge, complex problem.
它是一个巨大而复杂的问题
It’s very hard to get your head around it.
分析起来非常困难
But I find that there’s a different lens
但我发现从另一个角度
that can make it much easier to grapple with
可以使它更容易解决
and even lead to optimism.
甚至可以催生出对此问题的乐观情绪
It’s the lens of systems
那就是系统的角度
which I define simply as
我将它简单定义为
the science of patterns and their underlying rules.
模式及其基本规则的科学
But what do I mean by “system”?
但是我说的“系统”是什么意思?
I think of a system as a set of interconnected relationships
我认为系统是一组相互关联的关系
which lead to a repeatable and recognizable pattern.
这种关系会导致一个可重复和可识别的模式
So, to give you an example,
好 举个例子
let’s think of the global maritime shipping industry.
让我们想想全球海运业
It’s huge. It’s responsible for transporting over 80% of global trade.
它非常庞大 占了全球贸易运输的80%
And it produces similar emissions to the entire country of Germany.
它带来的碳排放量与整个德国相当
And this system consists of the interconnected relationships
这个系统由价值链上的各个交互环节组成
along the value chain between shipping manufacturers, fuel manufacturers,
包括船舶制造商 燃料生产商
ports, the shipping operators and the cargo owners.
港口 航运运营商和货主
And those influences around it—the policy makers, the financiers
以及周围的影响因素 如决策者 金融家
technology providers and civil society—
技术供应商和社会群体
that’s what I mean by “system”.
这就是我所说的“系统”
And our job is to drive the transformation in every global system
我们的职责是推动全球各个系统
from agriculture to retail, from shipping to trucking,
从农业到零售业 从航运到陆运
from cement to steel,
从水泥行业到钢铁行业的转型
so that collectively we move towards a zero-carbon future.
这样我们才能共同迈向零碳的未来
So the question is,
所以问题是
what are the underlying rules that we need to apply
我们需要遵循什么样的基本规则
to lead to new zero-carbon patterns in the economy?
才能在经济领域形成新的零碳模式?
Well, we’ve come up with 3 simple rules of radical collaboration
我们提出了三条深度合作的简单规则
that if acted on by all actors
如果各方和各个系统都能遵守
and each system will lead us to the zero-carbon future.
就可以实现零碳未来
Rule 1 is the Harness Ambition Loops
规则一是利用野心循环
which is simply feedback loops driving ever higher levels of ambition.
即一种驱动更高目标的反馈循环
For example, when businesses commit to zero-carbon and start investing and innovating,
比如 当企业承诺零碳排放并开始投资和创新时
they embolden policy makers.
会让决策者受到鼓舞
And when policy makers set the regulatory framework to drive it towards zero-carbon,
当决策者基于零碳排放导向制定监管框架时
they incentivize a private sector to innovate.
就会激励私营部门进行创新
That’s an ambition loop.
这就是一个野心循环
And every relationship within each system is an opportunity
系统中的每个环节都是一个机会
to drive an ambition loop towards new zero-carbon patterns in the system.
推动系统开启新零碳模式的野心循环
Rule 2 is to set exponential goals.
规则二是设定指数级目标
We know from history that every major industrial disruption
历史告诉我们 每一次重大的工业颠覆
has followed the same shape and exponential curve,
都遵循同样的形状和指数曲线
with new technologies being adopted very slowly at first,
即新技术一开始的发展非常缓慢
but then a doubling rate kicking in consistently
但随后 速度会不断翻倍
until the overall transformation happens very quickly in the end.
直到最后开始以极快的速度转型
It’s a movie we’ve seen many times before,
这是一部我们曾多次看到的电影
whether from horses to cars,
无论是从马到车
from valves to transistors, or landlines to mobile phones.
从阀门到晶体管 或从固定线路到移动电话
And we understand how it works.
而我们也知道是如何发生的
Initially, the cost of technology is high
最初 科技成本很高
but as we learn through volume adoption,
但通过使用量规律我们可以得知
the cost goes down and adoption goes up.
成本下降时 使用率就会上升
Best example right now would be electric batteries,
现在最好的例子就是电池
consistently coming down in cost by 20% a year
在过去的十年里
for the last 10 years.
每年成本都持续下降20%
And as the volume of adoption grows,
随着科技的广泛使用
especially with electric vehicle sales growing,
尤其是在电动汽车销量不断增长的情况下
we can be confident that the costs of that technology will continue to go down,
我们可以相信这种技术的成本将持续下降
driving that exponential growth.
并推动其使用率成指数型增长
We set these exponential goals
我们设定这些指数级目标
because we believe in the power of human innovation.
是因为我们相信人类创新的力量
Engineers love these goals. They stretch targets. It’s what they live for.
工程师们喜欢这些目标 他们力求实现 为此而生
The third rule is to follow shared action pathways,
规则三是遵循共同的行动路径
and these are maps of the actions which every action from the system
系统的每一环都必须在短期内遵循行动地图
has to take in the short term to make sure we’re on track to that exponential goal.
以确保我们正朝着指数级目标前进
Actions that if everyone in the system follows
如果系统中每个人都遵循这些行动
means we’ll be on track to the zero-carbon future.
就意味着我们将步入零碳的未来
We normally set these
我们通常会在一个相对较短的时间
for a relatively short period of time for the next 5 years
也就是在接下来的五年内规划路径
and then we review and set the next phase of the journey.
然后进行回顾并设定下一阶段的规程
By following these 3 simple rules of radical collaboration,
通过遵循这三条简单的基本合作规则
we can drive the race to zero emissions.
我们可以加速零碳排放目标的实现
And my team now, with hundreds of partners, have created toolkit
现在我的团队和数百个合作伙伴
for these 3 goals for every sector of the global economy.
为全球经济的每个部门都制定了这三个目标的工具包
They’ve mapped the interconnected ambition loops.
设计了各环节间的野心循环
They’ve plotted exponential goals.
画出了指数目标
And they’ve published shared pathways.
并且发布了共享路径
Now, I said earlier on that
我之前说过
adopting the system’s lens can help us to be more optimistic
采用系统的视角可以帮助我们更加乐观
and I’m very optimistic.
而我现在就很乐观
So let’s try to explain why by looking at the application,
那么 现在让我们试着通过分析这三条规则
those 3 rules to the shipping system that we looked at earlier.
在之前提到的运输系统中的应用来解释其道理
First of all, we just remind ourselves
首先 我们要回忆起来
of all those interconnected ambition loops that we’re gonna be harnessing.
每一个构成野心循环的环节
Second of all, we set our exponential goal.
其次 我们设定指数目标
We’re at zero now
我们现在是零
and we’ve gotta get to 100% of all ships
然后会发展到所有的船只
being zero-carbon by 2050.
到2050年实现零碳排放
When we plot the exponential curve,
当我们绘制指数曲线时
we see that we need to get to 5% by 2030.
我们认为需要在2030年达到5%
Now that may not seem like much
这个目标看起来好像并不高
but starting from zero, that’s a big change,
但因为是从零开始 这其实是一个很大的变化
and it will drive the learning which drives down the cost
它将推动学习 从而降低成本
which means in the 30s, we can really accelerate and finish the job in the 40s.
这意味着我们能在30年代提速 并在40年代完成任务
So, how we are doing against the shared action pathway
所以我们接下来要解决的
is the next of our tools.
就是如何处理共同路径的问题
Well, it turns out we’re doing pretty well actually.
事实上 我们做得很好
The biggest container shipping company in the world, Maersk,
世界上最大的集装箱航运公司马士基
has already committed to buying its first zero-carbon vessel in 2023.
已经承诺在2023年购买第一艘零碳船
A German utility, Juniper,
德国公用事业公司Juniper
has abandoned plans to invest in gas infrastructure in the Port William Shaven.
放弃了在威廉沙文港投资天然气基础设施的计划
and is instead investing in green ammonia infrastructure.
转而投资绿色氨基础设施
Customers are coming together to form a cargo owners’ zero emission vessels initiative,
客户聚集在一起达成货主船舶零排放倡议
sending a demand signal to the container operators.
向集装箱运营商发出需求信号
And policy makers are shifting to the…
决策者正在转向……
EU is extending its Emissions Trading Scheme to cover shipping emissions
欧盟正在扩大其排放交易计划 将航运排放纳入其中
which will put a price on carbon
这将为碳定价
and incentivize invesments in green fuel infrastructure.
并且鼓励对绿色燃料基础设施的投资
Technology companies are coming together.
科技公司正齐头并进
7 of them have formed the green hydrogen catapult
其中7家组成了绿色氢联盟
to drive the cost of green hydrogen down
号召将绿色氢气的成本
to below 2 dollars a kilogram in the next 5 years.
在未来五年内降至每公斤2美元以下
Crucial action on that pathway towards commercial viability for zero-carbon vessels.
这是实现零碳容器商业可行性的关键行动
And civil society is influencing the system as well.
社会群体也在影响着这个体系
In the Netherlands, over 10000 citizens
在荷兰 超过10000名市民
have taken shipping fuel manufacturer Shell to court
将航运燃料制造商壳牌公司告上法庭
and the court has found that Shell must reduce its emissions
法院认定壳牌公司必须更加积极
much more ambitiously by 45% by 2030.
在2030年前减少45%的碳排放量
So you can see that we now have radical collaboration
你可以看到 我们在航运系统中
in the shipping system,
就进行了深入的合作
driving progress towards that exponential goal.
使其发展朝着指数级目标前进
That’s just one system in the world economy.
而这只是世界经济中的一个体系
So the great news today is that now
如今的好消息是
thousands of countries and companies, cities
成千上万的国家和公司 城市
and investors of states and civil society organizations
板块投资者 社会群体组织
are all implementing these 3 simple rules of radical collaboration
都在践行这三个简单的深度合作规则
and converging actions towards exponential goals.
并朝着指数目标共同迈进
They’re not fully aligned yet, of course
当然 他们还没有完全结盟
but the more we converge, the lower the risk,
但是联盟程度越高 风险就越低
the lower the cost and the faster we can go.
成本就越低 我们前进的越快
And so, what might seemed
所以 这在几年前
a real stretch or even impossible just a few years ago
看起来简直是天方夜谭的事情
seems eminently achievable now.
现在看来是完全可以实现的
My favourite example, this phenomenon, is the transition to electric vehicles.
我最喜欢的例子 就是向电动汽车的过渡
In 2016, the world’s leading forecasters of the energy system
2016年 全球能源系统的领先预测者告诉我们
were telling us that we’ll still be buying combustion engine cars in the 2080s.
到2080年代 我们仍然会购买内燃机汽车
5 years later, in 2021,
5年后 也就是2021年
the vehicle manufacturers of the world
全世界的汽车制造商
and the policy makers of the world
以及全世界的决策者
are converging on the exponential goal of 100% zero-emission vehicles,
都在朝着100%零排放汽车的指数目标靠拢
the end of the combustion engine in the mid-2030s.
内燃机时代将在21世纪30年代中期终结
In just 5 years,
在短短5年里
the future has come forward by 5 decades.
未来已经提前了50年
Now, as I said,
就像我说的
this task of tackling the climate crisis and driving this transition
应对气候危机和推动这一转变的任务
can be really daunting.
真的很宏大
But as always, we can turn to nature for inspiration
但我们可以一如既往地向大自然寻求灵感
on how following a few simple rules
想出如何遵循一些简单的规则
can lead to beautiful new patterns.
可以产生美好的新模式
Take a look at the stunning shapes
看看这些椋鸟群正在天空中
of these flocks of starlings are forming in the sky.
形成的令人惊叹的形状
By following their own 3 simple rules of radical flocking—
通过遵循它们自己的三条简单的深度群聚法则
Rule 1: pay attention to each other and don’t get too close.
规则一 注意彼此 不要靠得太近
Rule 2: fly in the same general direction.
规则二 朝着相同的方向飞行
And Rule 3: don’t fly too far away from each other.
规则三 不要相距太远
Pretty close to our own 3 simple rules of radical collaboration.
非常接近我们自己的深度合作的三条简单规则
1: Harness ambition loops.
一 利用野心循环
2: Pursue exponential goals.
二 追求指数级目标
3: Follow shared action pathways.
三 遵循共同的行动路径
Now, I wanna finish my reflecting on one final and crucial ambition loop,
现在 我想在最后一个至关重要的野心循环中结束我的思考
one that enables all of the others.
这个循环可以实现所有其他的目标
This the feedback loop between the stories that we tell
那就是我们通往未来的道路
of the path to the future and the future that we create,
和我们创造的未来之间的故事
and the actions that we take today.
以及和我们今天采取的行动之间的反馈循环
We humans are storytellers. We’re born storytellers.
我们人类是讲故事的人 我们是天生的说书人
We tell stories to each other all the time.
我们一直在给其他人讲故事
These stories of the future are our ambition loop.
这些关于未来的故事是我们的野心循环
So if we tell stories full of fear and failure,
所以如果我们讲的故事充满了恐惧和失败
then we will dispirit and disempower each other.
这会令彼此失望气馁 软弱无力
We’ll derail our collective efforts to build a better future.
将破坏我们为建设更美好未来所作的共同努力
When we tell positive stories,
但当我们讲述积极的故事时
we tap into the very best of the human spirit,
我们将挖掘人类最优秀的精神
we inspire collaboration and innovation.
从而鼓励合作和创新
So it’s crucial that we pay real attention
所以 关键的是我们要真正关注
to the stories that we’re sharing about our pathway on the race to zero.
我们正在分享的实现零碳排放的故事
We have to make sure we seek out and select positive examples of change
我们必须确保在实现指数级目标的道路上
along those pathways to the exponential goals
寻找和选择积极转型的例子
and share them widely.
并广泛分享它们
That’s how we build the most important and powerful ambition loop of all,
这就是我们如何构建最重要 最强大的野心循环的方法
because the stories that we tell the most often
因为被我们讲述最多的故事
are the ones that will come true.
往往会成为现实
Thank you.
感谢观看

发表评论

译制信息
视频概述

三条规则使零碳排放成为可能。

听录译者

Han

翻译译者

Song

审核员

审核员YUE

视频来源

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0BF2Np5J6jY

相关推荐