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新科技:我们应该害怕什么?《经济学人》

New technology: what do you have to fear? | The Economist

The rate that new technology is adopted is accelerating
人们应用新技术的速度愈来愈快
In America, the use of the internet was adopted six times faster
在美国 因特尔网技术的应用普及速度
than electricity had been when it became available a century earlier.
是一个世纪前人们运用电力速度的六倍
But greater innovation can bring greater risks
但是 越伟大的创新就会带来越高的风险
which require more control.
越高的风险则需要越多的控制
Many aspects of our lives are very heavily regulated,
我们生活的方方面面都受到非常严格的监管
things like food, medicines, cars, aviation.
例如食品 药品 汽车 航空
These are all things where if something goes wrong
若是在这些领域出现什么差错
it could be really bad, lots of people can die.
情况会很糟糕 很多人会因此丧命
Too many rules can stifle creativity
而规矩条框太多 则会扼杀创造力
while too few can lead to tragedy
太少又会引向灾难
There’s a very common perception
人们普遍有一个共识
that regulation and innovation are sort of opposed to each other,
即监管与创新似乎是对立的
if you have more of one
如果你偏向任何一方
then you’ll get less of the other.
在另一方就会有所失
So how can we maximise the benefits of innovation
因此 我们怎样才能将创新带来的利益最大化
while also reducing its risk?
同时降低其所带来的风险呢?
前方世界 趋势预测
如何将创新进行下去
Technology has delivered longer, safer and more interesting lives,
技术让我们的寿命更长 生活更安全 更有趣味
but innovation is always a journey into the unknown.
但是创新也让我们步入了未知世界
When you have a new technology,
当一项新技术被应用时
it’s going to have unexpected consequences;
它会带来意想不到的后果
it’s going to be used in unanticipated ways.
而应用它的方式也会令人意想不到
Some of those will be good, some of them could be harmful.
有的会带来好结果 有的可能就有害了
So this is where regulators step in.
因此就需要监管机构介入
Most key technologies are heavily regulated–
大多数关键技术都受到严格监管–
cars, aviation, health care, finance.
汽车 航空 医疗 金融
The difficulty is that technology moves quickly, regulators move slowly.
但困难在于 技术发展迅速 监管机构行事缓慢
So finding the right way to regulate a technology
所以要找出正确监管科技的方式
is always very difficult.
总是很困难的
It’s a sort of balancing act.
这就像要找到一条平衡之道
The challenge of balancing innovation and risk
这种保持创新和风险平衡的挑战
is seen in the tantalising progress of one particular technology–
就体现在一项特定技术的令人向往的进步过程中—
autonomous cars.
自动驾驶汽车
I think it’s a very interesting technology that, you know,
我觉得这个技术非常有意思 要知道
potentially could make a big difference in the future.
它会给未来的生活带来巨变
The trouble is, it doesn’t quite work yet.
问题是 它现在还运行不起来
钱德勒(美国亚利桑那州)
Several tech companies are racing to develop autonomous vehicles
有好几家科技公司正在竞相开发自动驾驶汽车
Google’s sister company, Waymo, is one of the leaders
谷歌的姊妹公司Waymo就是领跑者之一
It runs a fleet of fully driverless cars
它运营着一支全无人驾驶汽车车队
already out on public roads.
而且已经在公共道路上行驶了
In October 2020,
2020年10月
we launched our first commercial product in Arizona.
我们在亚利桑那州推出了第一款商业产品
So if you were to fly into Chandler, Arizona,
所以 你要是飞往亚利桑那州的钱德勒
and download the Waymo app, you can hop into a fully autonomous car
下载Waymo app 你就能坐上一辆全自动驾驶汽车了
You get into the car, buckle up,
上车 系上安全带
hit a button of where you want to go and you’re on the road
点击目的地 然后就上路了
Our Waymo driver never gets tired, never gets distracted,
我们Waymo公司的驾驶员不会疲倦 不会走神
…is never grumpy
从不发脾气
Nearly 40,000 people die
美国每年都有近4万人死于交通事故
and millions are injured every year on America’s roads
并有数以百万记的人因此受伤
So putting driverless cars on public highways
所以让无人驾驶汽车在公共道路上行驶
could present a huge risk.
可能会带来巨大的风险
Can we build a vehicle that can drive in ordinary traffic
我们能造一辆可以行驶在普通交通道路上的车吗
with other road users, with cyclists,
让它与其他道路使用者 骑自行车的人
with pedestrians, with other cars?
行人 或者其它车辆共用道路
There are humans that can’t do that
有些人都做不到这一点
The challenge is getting these vehicles to work
挑战不在于让这些车
not in a controlled environment, in the everyday world
在受控环境中行驶 而是在日常生活环境中
which is a complex and unpredictable place
在复杂而情况不可预料的地方行驶
Waymo chose Chandler as its test site
Waymo公司选择钱德勒做为其测试基地
because Arizona state regulations gave it
因为亚利桑那州的法规对实验
greater freedom to experiment.
给予了更多的自由
Arizona has made an intentional decision
亚利桑那州特意做决策
to become the centre of innovation for autonomous vehicles
要成为自动驾驶汽车的创新中心
We helped to pass… I meant (we) worked hand-in-hand with policymakers,
我们和政策决策者
and other stakeholders to really get the legislation passed,
及其他股东并肩合作 真正将法规的通过落实
and so the current regulatory atmosphere
因此 我们帮助塑造当前的监管环境
has been one that we’ve been able to help shape and help inform.
并且传递政策信息
Uber, another company racing to develop autonomous vehicles
另一家竞相开发自动驾驶汽车的公司优步
began testing in nearby Tempe
已经开始在附近的坦佩进行测试
to take advantage of Arizona’s regulatory regime.
以充分利用亚利桑那州的这些法规制度
But the regulations were thrust into the spotlight.
但是这些法规被推置于聚光灯下
One Sunday night in March 2018…
2018年3月一个周日的晚上
“…seriously hurt in a crash with a self-driving Uber vehicle…”
“……与一辆自动驾驶的优步汽车相撞并严重受伤……”
Elaine Herzberg was killed as she crossed a road in Tempe
Elaine Herzberg在横穿坦佩市的一条马路时
by a test car belonging to Uber.
被一辆隶属优步公司的测试车撞死
A safety driver was on board at the time,
当时车内有一位安全驾驶员
but failed to prevent the collision.
但是他没能阻止撞车的发生
The vision system couldn’t figure out what was happening,
车辆的视觉系统不清楚路况
didn’t put on the brakes and hit her.
于是没有刹车 就把她给撞了
And some people have said that, you know,
有的人说
had there been a stricter regulatory regime around these vehicles,
如果他们有对这些车辆进行严格监管的制度
then this accident wouldn’t have happened.
这起事故就不会发生了
Following the accident, Arizona immediately suspended
事故之后 亚利桑那州立即终止了
any further testing of Uber’s autonomous vehicles.
优步公司自动驾驶车辆所有进一步测试
Waymo continue to operate in Chandler,
Waymo公司继续在钱德勒市运作
and insists that its technology is safe.
并坚称他们的技术是安全的
We’ve done 20m miles of testing on public roads,
我们在公共道路上的行驶里程已达2千万英里
and just recently, we released a safety paper
而就在最近 我们发布了一份安全文件
for the public, for academics and policymakers
这样大众 学术科研人员 政策制定者
to really look at our safety outcomes.
就能真正对我们的安全性成果进行审查
We looked at 6m of our autonomous miles,
我们查看了自动行驶里程中的6百万英里
and we found that we had only very minor collisions
我们发现在那6百万英里行程中
in those 6m miles of driving.
只有非常轻微的碰撞事故
The proof is in the numbers
数字就能证明这一点
that we are a very safe autonomous vehicle service.
那就是 我们提供的是非常安全的自动驾驶汽车服务
For self-driving cars and their regulators,
对于自动驾驶汽车及其监管机构来说
the biggest hurdle may not be safety but public opinion.
最大的障碍可能不是安全问题 而是舆论
The evidence so far is that autonomous cars are very safe drivers.
到目前为止 证据显示自动驾驶汽车是非常安全的驾驶者
So about 40,000 people die on the roads every year in America, for example.
那么 举例来说 在美国每年大约有4万人死于交通事故
If you make an autonomous car a thousand times safer,
如果你使自动驾驶汽车的安全性提高至1千倍
you’re still going to have 40 people being killed
每年还是会有40人
by autonomous vehicles every year.
会被自动驾驶汽车撞死
Every one is going to be a newspaper headline,
死的每个人都会上头条新闻
you know, “person killed by robot car.”
会写着“被机器人汽车撞死的人”
While too little regulation can be risky,
尽管条规太少会导致风险
too much can be bad for business.
但是规则太多就会对行业造成阻碍
And those in the know claim this is the case
那些知情者称在美国
with another emerging technology in America — drones
另一项新兴技术也面临着这个状况—无人机
Two big dangers with drones.
无人机会导致两种危险
One is they’ll fall on your head and kill you;
一是 它们会掉下来砸中你的脑袋 致你死亡
the other is they’ll crash into some other flying vehicle
另一个是 它们会撞上其它一些飞行器
and make that crash.
致使飞行器失事
And so clearly, this is not something where you can just have a free-for-all,
所以很显然 这可不是一个所有人都能自由参加的活动
let people do whatever they like.
不能让所有人都随心所欲
You’ve got to have rules.
你得有规矩
Since 1958, the body that sets those rules in America
1958年以来 在美国制定这些规则的机构
has been the Federal Aviation Administration.
就是联邦航空管理局
Aviation for 100 years has involved
在航空业发展百年来
carrying people somewhere in the air on a giant metal structure
用一个巨大的金属结构 将人运送到某个地方
with thousands of gallons of fuel strapped underneath.
金属结构底下装载着数千加仑的燃油
Along came drones,
随之而来的是无人机
I think it’s fair to say
平心而论
the regulators didn’t know what to do with that
监管机构不知道该如何应对无人机
because their entire history and structure
因为监管机构从始至终 从上至下
has been focused on protecting people on board an aircraft
通过制定极高的标准
by creating very high standards
致力于保护飞机上的人
both for the pilot as well as for the aircraft.
既保护飞行员 同时保护飞机
The FAA’s reaction was to make flying drones
联邦航空局的反应是
commercially very hard indeed
极大增加无人机遥控商用化的难度
Initially, if you wanted to fly a drone
一开始 如果你想要遥控无人机
in order to take pictures of a property that was being sold
去拍摄已经出售的房产
or survey a building site,
或者去勘察建筑工地
you couldn’t do it
除非你有飞行员执照
unless you had a pilot’s licence.
否则你就不能这样做
Many people felt that this rule was sort of silly.
许多人觉得这条法规有点愚蠢
It was imposing the rules for the old technology on the new technology.
这是在把旧技术的规则强加到新技术头上
The FAA updated its regulations in 2016
2016年联邦航空局更新了法规
but some argue that the rules are still lagging behind,
但是还有人认为法规依旧落后
and stopping drones from fulfilling their full potential.
因此阻止了无人机发挥其所有的潜力
The next frontier for drones and their regulation
无人机涉及的下一个新领域和相关规则
really is what’s called Beyond Visual Line of Sight,
其实就是我们所说的“视距外运行”
and this would enable drones to fly unlimited distance autonomously.
这将使无人机能够不限距离地自主飞行
You can’t gain much value out of delivering a package
送快递创造不了什么价值
only a couple thousand feet, you could just walk it over there or drive it.
只有几千英尺的话 你可以步行或开车
If you’re going to do package delivery with the drone,
如果你要用无人机送包裹
you’re going to want to fly a few miles.
你想的是飞几英里去送快递
US drone company Wing is already doing this
美国无人机公司Wing已经在这么做了
but not at its base in California.
但是他们并没有在其基地加利福尼亚州这样做
More than 7,000 miles away, in Logan, Australia…
而是在7000多英里之外的澳大利亚洛根……
Wing went to Australia for a number of reasons.
Wing公司去澳大利亚发展原因有很多
The regulator in Australia has very high safety standards
澳大利亚的监管机构有非常高的安全标准
and we knew that we would be able to work with them
我们知道可以与他们合作
to ensure that our operations were reviewed carefully
以确保我们的运作得到仔细审查
and they would be safe.
而这些运作会很安全
And now we’re doing thousands of deliveries a week to customers.
现在我们每周给客户送数千份快递
Beyond Line of Sight is really necessary
随着时间的推移 “视距外运行”
for operations to scale over time.
对扩大运营规模来说确实是必要的
Some claim the FAA has driven these innovations overseas.
一些人称美国联邦航空局把这些创新驱赶到海外发展了
Behind the scenes, there’s tremendous frustration
但在这背后 因为美国联邦航空局的发展速度滞后
that the FAA is not moving fast enough.
也不免令人扼腕叹息 感到遗憾
Other countries are ahead.
其它国家领先了
For something as serious and obviously regulated as aviation
像航空这样严肃而且很明显需要监管的事
you just know that rules are coming.
你很清楚 肯定会制定规则
It’s very difficult to convince investors
要说服投资者
to put their money in to something when literally the government
在政府几乎明示不允许投资的领域里投资
is telling you this is not currently permitted
这是非常困难的
and we don’t know when we’re going to have a set of rules.
况且 我们也不清楚何时会制定新规
Letting large numbers of drones loose in already crowded airspace
放任大量无人机在已经拥挤不堪的领空飞行
is definitely a safety challenge.
这对于安全绝对是个挑战
The technology exists today
技术发展至今
to allow us and others to operate beyond line of sight
让人们能够在视野外遥控无人机
and the regulatory environment will have to adapt
现有的监管环境就得调整
to allow that to happen.
让此事成为可能
What we have in the United States so far
迄今在美国我们施行的
is basically no risk tolerance.
基本上是风险零容忍政策
We need to figure out ways to promote their integration into society
我们需要找出方法模式 推动技术融入社会
rather than dwelling in these overly conservative traditional safety frameworks
而不是止步于这些很明显非常保守 传统的
that don’t really apply to these types of risks.
根本就不适用于这类风险的安全条框里
If too much regulation can smother innovation
如果太多的监管会扼杀创新
and too little can be dangerous,
而太少又会带来危险的话
is there a middle ground?
那有没有一个中间地带呢?
There are times when regulation and innovation go hand in hand,
有时监管与创新能相辅相成
so they’re not always enemies.
两者之间并不总是对立的
What it’s all about is having the right kind of regulation
关键在于拥有正确的监管方式
and having smart regulation.
和智慧的监管
And a really interesting example of that is what we’ve seen recently
一个非常有趣的例子就是我们最近看到的
in financial services with so-called sandbox regulation.
在金融服务中所谓的“沙盒监管”
The British financial-technology sector
英国金融科技行业
was an early adopter of sandbox regulation.
是沙盒监管的早期施行者
A sandbox is a place where kids can play with buckets and spades and sand and mud,
沙盒是孩子们可以玩水桶 铁锹 沙子和泥土的地方
and they can make a mess
他们可以把里面弄得乱糟糟
and it’s fine to make a mess in the sandbox.
那也没关系
You wouldn’t let them do that on the living-room floor
你不会允许他们在客厅地板上这样做
but a sandbox is a controlled, closed environment
但是沙盒是一个受控制的 封闭的环境
where making a mess is allowed.
孩子们可以把沙盒搞得一团糟
Keeping innovation in a controlled environment
把创新置于一个受控环境
is sensible in the fast-moving financial sector.
在发展迅速的金融行业是明智的
If a bank fails or something goes wrong,
如果银行倒闭或者出了什么状况的话
lots of people lose lots of money
很多人就会损失大笔的钱
and so the sandbox lets you have the best of both worlds.
所以沙盒操作会让你两全其美
It means that there’s close regulatory supervision
这意味着严密的监管监督

but there’s also lots and lots of scope for innovation.
但仍保有非常大的创新空间
The sandbox approach helped London become a world-leader in financial technology,
沙盒操作帮助伦敦成为金融技术上的世界领先者
a sector worth more than £6bn to the UK economy.
这个领域对英国经济的价值超过60亿英镑
And it is now being adopted for another emerging technology that’s on the move–
现在这个方法正为另一项正在发展中的新兴技术所采用
electric passenger flight, known as eVTOL.
它就是电动客运飞行 就是所谓“电动垂直起降”的技术
The Civil Aviation Authority regulates Britain’s airspace
民航局监管英国的领空
We see significant potential for eVTOL in the near term
我们认为 在短期内 电动垂直起降技术
in terms of adapting existing helicopter markets.
在适应现有直升机市场方面具有巨大潜力
But also in the long term, it could potentially play a role
而且从长远来看 此技术对于国内不同地区的连接
in connecting up different parts of the country.
也可能发挥作用
eVTOL aircraft are similar to drones powered by motors
电动垂直起降飞机与发动机驱动的无人机相似
that run on batteries but big enough to carry passengers.
使用电池 但足够大 可以搭载乘客
Vertical Aerospace in Bristol has already flown a prototype.
布里斯托尔的垂直航空航天公司已经试飞了一架原型机
We’re looking at decarbonisation of aerospace
我们正在研究航空航天领域的脱碳
which has historically been a very polluting environment
从历史上看 这是一个污染非常严重的环境
and moving more towards battery power
我们将着力于转向电池供电
taking energy from renewable sources.
从可再生能源中获取能源
Vertical Aerospace is part of a consortium of companies
垂直航空航天公司是一家与民航局合作的
in a regulatory sandbox working with the Civil Aviation Authority.
监管沙盒中的集团公司的一部分
Collaboration is really important
协作非常重要 这样我们可以确保
so that we can ensure that we have an ecosystem
当飞机真正投入全面生产时
ready to accept an aircraft
能有一个生态系统
when it actually goes into full-scale production.
这个系统可以随时准备接受它
We don’t have to choose between innovation and regulation.
我们不必在创新和监管之间做出选择
If we engage with someone at an early design stage or a conceptual stage,
如果我们在早期设计阶段或概念阶段与人共事
then what we’re helping them to do
那么我们帮助他们做的就是
is build a product that can actually be regulated
构建一个实际上可以监管的产品
rather than coming in at the end and effectively kicking it into touch.
而不是最后再介入 结果避而不谈不解决问题
Autonomous vehicles, drones, eVTOL aircraft,
自动驾驶汽车 无人机 电动垂直起降飞机
three new technologies with the potential to deliver great benefits,
这三个新技术都有带来巨大利益的潜力
but also real dangers.
但也能带来真正的危险
Regulation needs to be used to manage the risks
我们需要用监管来管理风险
while also maximising potential rewards.
同时也要将潜在的回报利益最大化
It’s tempting to see regulation and innovation as a sort of seesaw
我们很容易将监管与创新的关系看作是一个跷跷板游戏
when one of them goes up, the other one goes down.
其中一端翘起来了 另一端就会下沉
But actually, the reality is more complex than that
而实际上 现实要比这个复杂得多
and there ARE ways that you can have safe, sensible regulations
而且确实有办法可以让你拥有安全 合理的法规
and still have lots of innovation.
同时还依旧保有很多创新空间
I am Tom Standage, deputy editor of The Economist,
我是Tom Standage 《经济学人》的副编辑
and the editor of The World Ahead.
《前方世界》的编辑
To read more of our future-gazing coverage, click on the link.
阅读更多展望未来的报道 请点击链接
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视频概述

面对目前最新的科技发展——自动驾驶汽车、无人机、电动垂直起降飞机,我们应该如何应对呢?是严控监管还是放任发展?新科技的应用都是有风险的,但它们也有服务于人类的巨大潜力。规矩太多会扼杀创新,而太少也会带来灾难,那我们应该何去何从呢?

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翻译译者

Ada

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审核员LG

视频来源

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ey7DqMbkxj4

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