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微死亡:麻醉的风险有多大?

Micromorts: How Risky Is It to Go Under Anesthesia?

Hundreds of millions of operations are performed every year,
每年会进行数亿场手术
and the risk of death is typically around a half a percent,
手术死亡的风险一般在0.5%左右
to which patients might say things like,
对此 很多病人可能会说
“I could die just as easily crossing the road,”
“只是简单地过个马路 我也可能会死啊”
making it clear they really don’t understand
这表明他们真的不了解
the difference in magnitude of risk.
不同风险程度间的差异
One way to communicate risk is by analogy.
表达风险的一种方式是通过类比
For example, just going under anesthetic carries about
举个例子 仅仅是麻醉
a 1 in 100,000 chance you won’t wake up. How much is that?
就有十万分之一的可能无法醒来 那是多少呢?
Well, that’s about the same risk as an expert sky dive.
就相当于专业跳伞人员跳伞的风险
Okay, but that still may be kind of hard to wrap your head around.
这样说 你可能还是有点难以理解
It’s hard to think in terms of small numbers.
这很难用小数额来解释
Imagine discussing a 0.0017 mile x 0.00227 mile rug.
设想讨论一块0.0017英里宽 0.00227英里长的地毯
How big even is that? We need more digestible units.
它到底是多大呢? 我们需要更多容易理解的单位
Enter the micromort as a unit of comparing
为了便于比较 便于更好地向病人表述风险
and communicating risk to patients.
需要引入“微死亡”这个单位
A micromort is a unit equivalent to one in a million chance of dying.
一单位“微死亡”等同于百万分之一的死亡率
One in a million is like the chances of flipping a coin
投掷一枚硬币 连续20次都是正面
and getting 20 heads or tails in a row,
或反面的概率就是百万分之一
or a little less than the chances of getting a royal flush.
比抽到同花顺的概率还要小一点
But the real utility is to help compare different risks to one another,
但“微死亡”这一单位真正的效用是用相同的衡量标准
using the same metric.
来比较不同的风险
For example, driving a hundred miles entails about
比方说 驾驶100英里致死的概率是百万分之一
a one in a million chance of death, so that’s one micromort.
也就是一个单位的“微死亡”
Scuba diving is like five micromorts per dive;
水肺潜水的风险则是每次5个单位的“微死亡”(百万分之五)
so, each dive is as risky as driving 500 miles.
所以每次潜水相当于驾驶500英里一样危险
So, now we have a way to directly compare the risk
那么 我们现在就有办法直接对比
of surgical procedures and common activities.
外科手术与常规活动间的风险了
Giving birth is as risky as driving from NY to LA and then back again,
分娩的风险相当于往返于纽约和洛杉矶间
but getting a cesarean is more than twice as risky.
而剖腹产的风险则是分娩的两倍多
Even something like a simple hernia repair carries the same risk
甚至像疝修补术这类简单的手术的死亡风险
of dying as like sky diving 200 times.
也是跳伞的200倍
Now obviously, sometimes you have no choice,
显然 有些时候你别无选择
but death from varicose vein surgery
但死于静脉曲张手术
or circumcision probably be avoided.
或包皮环切手术是可以避免的
I was surprised to learn that
我惊奇地发现
regular horseback riding is like four times deadlier than rock climbing,
普通的骑马的致死率竟然是攀岩的四倍
but getting chemo and radiation for head and neck cancer
而接受头颈癌化疗和放疗的风险性
is riskier than rock-climbing for 500 years,
比攀岩500年 开车五百万英里
driving 5 million miles, or jumping 5,000 sky dives, etc.
或跳伞5000次等还要高
One leading cause of death I really didn’t talk about
我在《救命!》一书中
in How Not to Die is accidental death.
没提到的一个主要死亡原因是意外死亡
We have approximately a one in a million chance of dying
我们大约有百万分之一的概率
just by accident every day of our lives,
因日常生活中的意外而死亡
and about half of that risk is dying in a car crash,
五十万分之一的概率死于车祸
based on U.S. averages.
这是美国的平均数据
Then, there are all sorts of other ways.
当然还有各种各样的意外
I am surprised to learn
我还惊奇地发现
Americans have about a 1 in 200,000 chance every year of dying
美国人每年大约有二十万分之一的概率死于
from a foreign body entering an orifice other than the mouth.
口腔以外其他孔道的异物入体
Other things we may want to avoid include climbing Mount Everest,
其他我们可能想要避免的事包括攀登珠穆朗玛峰
about 30 times riskier than coal mining or base jumping.
它的风险是采煤或定点跳伞的30倍
Trains and planes are actually equivalent over the same distance,
火车和飞机在同等距离上的风险实际是一样的
but riding a motorcycle is about 50 times deadlier than riding in a car,
但骑摩托车的致死率则是开车的50倍
though cycling to a destination is riskier too,
就算是骑自行车出行
about 10 times as deadly as driving in the near term.
风险也是短期驾车出行的10倍左右
Here’s a good example of how one can use micromort comparisons
这里有一个很好的例子 可以告诉我们
to help put things in perspective.
如何通过比较“微死亡”这一单位来正确看待事物
Certain types of breast implants can cause a rare type of cancer,
某些类型的胸部植入物会导致一种罕见的癌症
a type of breast implant- associated lymphoma.
一种跟乳房植入物相关的淋巴瘤
You can imagine how scary this is
你可以想象出这对于数百万
for the millions of women who have implants,
做过隆胸手术的女性来说有多恐怖
but check out the risk compared to the risk of other common activities.
但拿它的风险跟其他常见活动相比
Your risk of dying from this kind of cancer is less
死于这种癌症的几率远远小于
than a single day of skiing.
滑雪一天致死的几率
Now, it’s probably better to die quick on the slopes
但比起癌症带来的漫长的痛苦
than all the slow suffering of cancer,
和它所导致的家庭破产风险
and risk of bankrupting your family,
在斜坡上迅速死去可能更好
but at least it can put the risk of
但这至少让我们开始考虑
the implant-cancer killing you in context.
由假体引发的癌症的致死风险

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视频概述

怎么对比不同的风险 需要使用什么量级 原来看似寻常的活动竟然比那些危险的运动风险更大

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收集自网络

翻译译者

闪闪发光小太阳

审核员

审核员HSX

视频来源

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tOa3UM2ksR4

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