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如何解决交通拥堵

Jonas Eliasson: How to solve traffic jams

翻译人员: Louise LIANG 校对人员: James Yu
Translator: Joseph Geni Reviewer: Morton Bast
嗨,我要在这里谈谈拥堵问题
Hi. I’m here to talk about congestion,
我指的是道路堵塞。
namely road congestion.
道路堵塞普遍存在。
Road congestion is a pervasive phenomenon.
世界上几乎所有的城市都存在这个问题
It exists in basically all of the cities all around the world,
斟酌之下这是挺奇怪的事
which is a little bit surprising when you think about it.
我的意思是,想想每个城市实际上有多大的差别。
I mean, think about how different cities are, actually.
我是说,既有那些典型的欧洲城市
I mean, you have the typical European cities,
那里有高密度的中心城区,大部分有良好的公交体系
with a dense urban core, good public transportation
但道路容量并不充足
mostly, not a lot of road capacity.
另一边厢,还有美式都会
But then, on the other hand, you have the American cities.
基本上都以自驾车为主,对吧。
It’s moving by itself, okay.
不管怎样,在美式城市里
Anyway, the American cities:
公路系统覆盖大部分地区,
lots of roads dispersed over large areas,
公交系统几乎是不存在的。
almost no public transportation.
此外还有新兴世界的城市
And then you have the emerging world cities,
那里各式交通工具并存,
with a mixed variety of vehicles,
土地利用模式丰富多样,而且分布广泛
mixed land-use patterns, also rather dispersed
但是通常中心区的密度极高。
but often with a very dense urban core.
世界各地的交通规划者都曾尝试
And traffic planners all around the world have tried
许多不同的方式:集中化城市或是分散化城市,
lots of different measures: dense cities or dispersed cities,
大量道路或是大量公交,
lots of roads or lots of public transport
又或者是大量自行车道或提供更多的信息,
or lots of bike lanes or more information,
还有许多不同的尝试,可惜看起来都不太见效。
or lots of different things, but nothing seems to work.
但是以上尝试有一个共同点。
But all of these attempts have one thing in common.
就是基本上他们都是试着搞清楚
They’re basically attempts at figuring out
除了车流高峰出行外人们应该做什么。
what people should do instead of rush hour car driving.
简而言之,他们都是尝试规划
They’re essentially, to a point, attempts at planning
他人应该做的事情,为他们规划生活。
what other people should do, planning their life for them.
现在,规划一个复杂的社会系统
Now, planning a complex social system
是件相当困难的事,我来讲个故事好了。
is a very hard thing to do, and let me tell you a story.
早在1989年,当柏林围墙倒塌的时候,
Back in 1989, when the Berlin Wall fell,
一个伦敦的城市规划师接到一通电话,
an urban planner in London got a phone call
是莫斯科的同事打来的,大意是
from a colleague in Moscow saying, basically,
“喂,我是Vladimir。我想知道,
“Hi, this is Vladimir. I’d like to know,
伦敦的面包供应是由谁负责的?“
who’s in charge of London’s bread supply?”
伦敦的那位规划师回答道
And the urban planner in London goes,
”你问的是什么意思?是谁负责伦敦的…
“What do you mean, who’s in charge of London’s —
我是说,这个没有负责。“
I mean, no one is in charge.”
”哦,但总得有个人拍板的吧。
“Oh, but surely someone must be in charge.
我是说,这是一个非常复杂的系统。总得有人来管才行啊。”
I mean, it’s a very complicated system. Someone must control all of this.”
“不,不,不,没人管的。
“No. No. No one is in charge.
我是说,基本上…我从没想过这个问题。
I mean, it basically — I haven’t really thought of it.
基本上它是自发组织起来的。“
It basically organizes itself.”
自发组织。
It organizes itself.
这就是复杂却
That’s an example of a complex social system
能够自我组织的复杂社会系统的例子。
which has the ability of self-organizing,
而这极富启发性。
and this is a very deep insight.
当你要解决真正复杂的社会问题的时候,
When you try to solve really complex social problems,
大多数情况下,正确的做法
the right thing to do is most of the time
应该是创造激励机制。
to create the incentives.
并不需要去设计细枝末节,
You don’t plan the details,
人们自会
and people will figure out what to do,
知道如何适应新的架构。
how to adapt to this new framework.
现在我们来看看这个指导思想
And let’s now look at how we can use this insight
如何能帮我们解决拥堵的问题。
to combat road congestion.
这是我的家乡,斯德哥尔摩的地图。
This is a map of Stockholm, my hometown.
如今斯德哥尔摩是一个中等规模城市,大概有两百万人口,
Now, Stockholm is a medium-sized city, roughly two million people,
同时斯德哥尔摩也是水道纵横的城市,
but Stockholm also has lots of water and lots of water
水多桥也多,各种狭窄的,历史久远的桥梁…
means lots of bridges — narrow bridges, old bridges —
而道路拥堵也就随之而来。
which means lots of road congestion.
图上的红点标出了最拥堵的路段,
And these red dots show the most congested parts,
都是通往市内的方向的桥梁.上
which are the bridges that lead into the inner city.
于是有人想出了这样一个点子,
And then someone came up with the idea that,
不是良好的公共交通,
apart from good public transport,
不是花钱修路,
apart from spending money on roads,
而是试着收取这些交通瓶颈的司机缴纳一两欧的费用。
let’s try to charge drivers one or two euros at these bottlenecks.
现在的一两欧只是个小钱,
Now, one or two euros, that isn’t really a lot of money,
我是说相对停车以及保养等费用而言,
I mean compared to parking charges and running costs, etc.,
所以你大概以为
so you would probably expect that car drivers
司机不会对这么点小钱有什么反应。
wouldn’t really react to this fairly small charge.
你错了。
You would be wrong.
仅仅一两欧就足以让20%
One or two euros was enough to make 20 percent of cars
的车辆避开行车高峰。
disappear from rush hours.
你可能会说20%虽然已经是个不错的数字,
Now, 20 percent, well, that’s a fairly huge figure, you might think,
可是还有余下的80%没解决,对吧?
but you’ve still got 80 percent left of the problem, right?
因为还有80%的车辆在车流当中。
Because you still have 80 percent of the traffic.
你又错了,因为路况
Now, that’s also wrong, because traffic happens to be
恰巧是个非线性的现象,也就是说
a nonlinear phenomenon, meaning that
当流量达到某个阙值
once you reach above a certain capacity threshold
拥堵情况就开始加剧并迅速恶化。
then congestion starts to increase really, really rapidly.
不过幸运的是,反过来也是成立的。
But fortunately, it also works the other way around.
只要流量有某种程度的降低,拥堵现象的
If you can reduce traffic even somewhat, then congestion
缓解会比想象中快得多。
will go down much faster than you might think.
斯德哥尔摩的交通拥堵费是从
Now, congestion charges were introduced in Stockholm
2006年1月3日开始征收的,这里的第一张图
on January 3, 2006, and the first picture here is a picture
是1月2日拍到的典型的斯德哥尔摩街道的照片。
of Stockholm, one of the typical streets, January 2.
交通拥堵费实施的首日,拍得的照片是这样的。
The first day with the congestion charges looked like this.
当你排除了20%的车辆时
This is what happens when you take away
街道是这个样子的。
20 percent of the cars from the streets.
拥堵的状况确实得到了很大的缓解。
You really reduce congestion quite substantially.
正如我提到的,司机们能适应,对吧?
But, well, as I said, I mean, car drivers adapt, right?
那过了一段时间以后,他们就会回到路上
So after a while they would all come back because they
因为他们已经习惯了收费。
have sort of gotten used to charges.
又错了。今天,在斯德哥尔摩
Wrong again. It’s now six and a half years ago
交通拥堵费已经施行了六年半了,
since the congestion charges were introduced in Stockholm,
基本上路况能一直保持同样的较低拥堵水平。
and we basically have the same low traffic levels still.
但是,你看,在2007年
But you see, there’s an interesting gap here in the time series
有一个有趣的插曲。
in 2007.
事情是这样的,交通拥堵费,
Well, the thing is that, the congestion charges,
一开始是试验性质的,
they were introduced first as a trial, so they were introduced
一月份开始推广,七月底在一次公投后取消了,
in January and then abolished again at the end of July,
在2007年再度收取,
followed by a referendum, and then they were reintroduced
这当然是一次难得的科学实验的机会。
again in 2007, which of course was a wonderful scientific opportunity.
我是说,这本身就是一个很有趣的实验,
I mean, this was a really fun experiment to start with,
而且我们有机会做了两次。
and we actually got to do it twice.
对我个人而言,我巴不得年把两年就能重做一次,
And personally, I would like to do this every once a year or so,
不过这会让他们随时受不了的。
but they won’t let me do that.
不管怎样这也十分有趣。
But it was fun anyway.
于是,我们进行了跟踪。情况如何呢?
So, we followed up. What happened?
这是引进交通拥堵费的最后一天,7月31日,
This is the last day with the congestion charges, July 31,
你看到的是相同的街道,但这是在夏天,
and you see the same street but now it’s summer,
夏天是斯德哥尔摩一年中
and summer in Stockholm is a very nice
非常美好而轻松的季节,
and light time of the year,
废除交通拥堵费后的第一天
and the first day without the congestion charges
看起来是这个样子的。
looked like this.
所有的车都回来了,不得不佩服这些司机,
All the cars were back again, and you even have to admire
他们反应神速。
the car drivers. They adapt so extremely quickly.
第一天就都回来了。
The first day they all came back.
这个情况一直持续着。所以到了2007年,是这样的。
And this effect hanged on. So 2007 figures looked like this.
这些交通画面实在让人兴奋
Now these traffic figures are really exciting
还有些让人吃惊,并且还让人深受启发,
and a little bit surprising and very useful to know,
可是我要说,今天我要给大家展示的
but I would say that the most surprising slide here
最让人惊讶的画面不是这张。而是这一张。
I’m going to show you today is not this one. It’s this one.
它显示了公众对于在斯德哥尔摩征收交通拥堵费的支持,
This shows public support for congestion pricing of Stockholm,
而当这项收费在2006年春天
and you see that when congestion pricing were introduced
刚刚开始施行的时候,大家是强烈反对的。
in the beginning of Spring 2006, people were fiercely against it.
70%的人都反对。
Seventy percent of the population didn’t want this.
但是收费实施以后
But what happened when the congestion charges
人们并没有像预期中那样越来越讨厌这个举措。
were there is not what you would expect, that people hated it more and more.
相反的,他们的想法从某种程度上来说来了个大逆转,
No, on the contrary, they changed, up to a point
现在70%的人是继续收费的支持者。
where we now have 70 percent support for keeping the charges,
也就是说,让我重复一次:
meaning that — I mean, let me repeat that:
斯德哥尔摩中70%的人口
70 percent of the population in Stockholm
同意对某项过去免费的东西来继续收费。
want to keep a price for something that used to be free.
OK 这怎么可能呢?是为什么呢?
Okay. So why can that be? Why is that?
想想看,是谁改变了呢?
Well, think about it this way. Who changed?
我是说,20%的司机没有上路,
I mean, the 20 percent of the car drivers that disappeared,
他们肯定有点不乐意吧。
surely they must be discontent in a way.
他们去哪里了呢?如果我们能了解这点,
And where did they go? If we can understand this,
那也许就能弄清楚为什么人们对这个满意。
then maybe we can figure out how people can be so happy with this.
于是我们做了这个大型的问卷调查,
Well, so we did this huge interview survey
针对各种交通服务,以尝试了解
with lots of travel services, and tried to figure out
是谁变了,他们去了哪里?
who changed, and where did they go?
结果他们自己也搞不清楚(笑声)。
And it turned out that they don’t know themselves. (Laughter)
不知道为什么,司机们
For some reason, the car drivers are —
都自信满满地说自己实际上还是如从前一样驾驶。
they are confident they actually drive the same way that they used to do.
这是为什么呢?因为驾驶模式
And why is that? It’s because that travel patterns
并不像你想象中那么死板。
are much less stable than you might think.
每天,人们都会做出新的决定,而人们
Each day, people make new decisions, and people change
和他们所处的世界也都在改变,每天
and the world changes around them, and each day
这些决定其实随时都在微调
all of these decisions are sort of nudged ever so slightly
以避开车流高峰出行,
away from rush hour car driving
而人们往往都没有意识到。
in a way that people don’t even notice.
哪怕是他们自己。
They’re not even aware of this themselves.
另外一个问题是,是谁改变了他们的想法呢?
And the other question, who changed their mind?
谁让他们改变了主意,而且为什么会改变呢?
Who changed their opinion, and why?
于是我们做了另外一个调查,试着了解
So we did another interview survey, tried to figure out
人们为什么改变主意,哪一些人改变了主意?
why people changed their mind, and what type of group changed their minds?
分析结果显示
And after analyzing the answers, it turned out that
有超过一半的人认为 自己的想法并没有改变。
more than half of them believe that they haven’t changed their minds.
他们都自以为本来
They’re actually confident that they have
就是收取交通拥堵费的支持者。
liked congestion pricing all along.
所以,现在的实际情况是
Which means that we are now in a position
我们把堵点的交通流量降低了20%,
where we have reduced traffic across this toll cordon
从而极大减少了拥堵的状况,
with 20 percent, and reduced congestion by enormous numbers,
而人们竟浑然不知自己的行为已经产生了变化,
and people aren’t even aware that they have changed,
而且他们真心诚意认为自己一开始就是支持的。
and they honestly believe that they have liked this all along.
这就是微小的推动力在解决
This is the power of nudges when trying to solve
复杂的社会问题中妙用,而当你利用它的时候,
complex social problems, and when you do that,
不应该告诉人们怎样去适应。
you shouldn’t try to tell people how to adapt.
只需要朝正确的方向进行微调。
You should just nudge them in the right direction.
如果你做对了,
And if you do it right,
人们就会接受这种变化,
people will actually embrace the change,
如果做好了,人们甚至可能喜欢上它。
and if you do it right, people will actually even like it.
谢谢。(掌声)
Thank you. (Applause)

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