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世界变的更好还是更糟?我来用数字证明 – 译学馆
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世界变的更好还是更糟?我来用数字证明

Is the world getting better or worse? A look at the numbers | Steven Pinker

很多人每天早上都会看到
Many people face the news each morning
令人忧虑和恐惧的新闻
with trepidation and dread.
每一天 我们都会看到枪击 不平等
Every day, we read of shootings, inequality,
污染 专政
pollution, dictatorship,
战争 核武器的蔓延
war and the spread of nuclear weapons.
这些新闻也部分解释了
These are some of the reasons
为什么2016年是有史以来最糟的一年
that 2016 was calledthe”Worst. Year. Ever.”
直至2017年比2016年还糟
Until 2017 claimed that record —
(笑)
(Laughter)
很多人开始向往几十年前的生活
and left many people longingfor earlier decades,
那时候的世界似乎更加安全 干净 平等
when the world seemed safer,cleaner and more equal.
但是这样理解人类在21世纪的情况
But is this a sensible way to understand the human condition
明智吗?
in the 21st century?
正如弗兰克林·皮尔斯·亚当斯说的那样
As Franklin Pierce Adams pointed out,
过去之所以美好
“Nothing is more responsiblefor the good old days
是因为人们善忘
than a bad memory.”
(笑声)
(Laughter)
如果拿现在不好的情况
You can always fool yourselfinto seeing a decline
去和美化过的过去相比
if you compare bleedingheadlines of the present
你可以骗自己说世风日下
with rose-tinted images of the past.
如果用恒定指标来衡量过去和现在的幸福度
What does the trajectoryof the world look like
世界变化的轨迹又是如何呢?
when we measure well-being over timeusing a constant yardstick?
我们来看一些数据
Let’s compare the most recentdata on the present
测量时间分别是现在和三十年前
with the same measures 30 years ago.
去年 美国凶杀率为
Last year, Americans killed each other at a rate
5.3/10万
of 5.3 per hundred thousand,
居民中贫困人口占7%
had seven percentof their citizens in poverty
微粒物质排放量为2100万吨
and emitted 21 million tonsof particulate matter
二氧化硫排放量为400万吨
and four million tons of sulfur dioxide.
30年前
But 30 years ago,
凶杀率是8.5/10万
the homicide rate was 8.5 per hundred thousand,
贫困率为12%
poverty rate was 12 percent
微粒物质排放量为3500万吨
and we emitted 35 million tonsof particulate matter
二氧化硫排放量为2000万吨
and 20 million tons of sulfur dioxide.
世界作为一个整体又是如何变化的呢?
What about the world as a whole?
去年 全世界有12场战争
Last year, the world had 12 ongoing wars,
60个独裁国家 全世界10%的人口生活在极度贫困中
60 autocracies, 10 percent of the world populationin extreme poverty
核武器数量超过一万
and more than 10,000 nuclear weapons.
30年前 全世界有23处战争
But 30 years ago, there were 23 wars,
85个独裁国家 极度贫困者占世界人口的37%
85 autocracies, 37 percent of the world populationin extreme poverty
核武器数量多于六万
and more than 60,000 nuclear weapons.
的确 去年情况很糟
True, last year was a terrible year
恐怖主义在西欧蔓延
for terrorism in Western Europe,
238人因此丧生
with 238 deaths,
但1988年更糟 有440人死于恐怖主义
but 1988 was worse with 440 deaths.
这是怎么回事?
What’s going on?
1988年是非常糟的一年吗?
Was 1988 a particularly bad year?
又或者 这些数字是否说明了
Or are these improvements a sign
这个世界一直在努力
that the world, for all its struggles,
越变越好?
gets better over time?
我们是不是可以用进步这一过时的说法来形容?
Might we even invoke the admittedlyold-fashioned notion of progress?
这么做肯定会招致某些人的嘲笑
To do so is to courta certain amount of derision,
因为我发现知识分子都讨厌进步
because I have foundthat intellectuals hate progress.
(笑)
(Laughter)
(鼓掌)
(Applause)
知识分子中自称进步分子的尤其痛恨进步
And intellectuals who call themselvesprogressive really hate progress.
(笑)
(Laughter)
不过 提醒大家 他们痛恨的
Now, it’s not that they hate the fruits
并不是进步带来的成果
of progress, mind you.
大多数专家学者
Most academics and pundits
在自己做手术的时候还是更想要打麻药的
would rather have their surgerywith anesthesia than without it.
让这些知识分子深恶痛绝的是进步这个概念
It’s the idea of progressthat rankles the chattering class.
有人曾跟我说 如果你相信人类
If you believe that humans can improve their lot,
可以自我提高
I have been told,
那就说明你相信人类进步的进程不可阻挡
that means that you have a blind faith
这种过时的迷信和明显错误的预言
and a quasi-religious beliefin the outmoded superstition
而你对这种说法的信任不仅盲目
and the false promiseof the myth of the onward march
而且带有类似宗教信仰的色彩
of inexorable progress.
你是庸俗的“美国可以”主义的拉拉队员
You are a cheerleaderfor vulgar American can-doism,
情绪高涨得叫好 就像董事会
with the rah-rah spiritof boardroom ideology,
硅谷以及商会那样
Silicon Valleyand the Chamber of Commerce.
你重蹈共和党的覆辙
You are a practitioner of Whig history,
乐观的过于天真且盲目 当然 你还是个潘格洛斯
a naive optimist, a Pollyannaand, of course, a Pangloss,
这是伏尔泰小说里的人物 他曾宣称
alluding to the Voltairecharacter who declared,
“在理想的最美好的世界中一切都是为最美好的目的而设。”
“All is for the best in the best of all possible worlds.”
其实
” Well,
潘格洛斯教授其实是个悲观主义者
Professor Pangloss,as it happens, was a pessimist.
真正的乐观主义者相信存在着比我们今天
A true optimist believesthere can be much better worlds
所处的世界好得多的世界存在
than the one we have today.
但是这些都不重要
But all of this is irrelevant,
因为世界是否进步
because the question of whether progress has taken place
无关信仰
is not a matter of faith
也无关是否积极乐观或看杯子是半空半满
or having an optimistic temperament or seeing the glass as half full.
它是一个可检验的假设
It’s a testable hypothesis.
尽管标准有所不同
For all their differences,
人们对影响生活质量的因素还是大致认同:
people largely agree on what goes into human well-being:
寿命 健康 温饱 成功 和平
life, health, sustenance, prosperity, peace,
自由 安全 知识 安逸 幸福
freedom, safety, knowledge, leisure, happiness.
这些都是可衡量的
All of these things can be measured.
如果这些指标随时间而提高 我觉得就是进步
If they have improved over time,that, I submit, is progress.
我们来看一看数据
Let’s go to the data,
从人类最珍贵东西的开始看:寿命
beginning with the most precious thing of all, life.
人类历史上很长一段时间
For most of human history,
出生时预期寿命都是30岁左右
life expectancy at birth was around 30.
今天 世界人口出生时预期寿命高于70岁
Today, worldwide, it is more than 70.
在发达地区甚至超过80岁
And in the developed parts of the world, more than 80.
250年前 即使是世界上最富裕的国家
250 years ago, in the richestcountries of the world,
三分之一的孩子
a third of the children did
会在5岁前夭折
not live to see their fifth birthday,
现在孩童夭折风险已经降低了百倍
before the risk was broughtdown a hundredfold.
今天 即使是世界上最贫穷的国家
Today, that fate befallsless than six percent of children
孩童夭折率也低于百分之六
in the poorest countries of the world.
饥荒是世界末日的四骑士之一
Famine is one of the Four Horsemenof the Apocalypse.
它可以毁灭世界任何角落
It could bring devastationto any part of the world.
今天 除了遥远的战乱地区
Today, famine has been banished
饥荒已经消失
to the most remote and war-ravaged regions.
200年前 世界上90%的人口
200 years ago, 90 percentof the world’s population
生活在极度贫困中
subsisted in extreme poverty.
今天这个比例已经降到10%以下
Today, fewer than 10 percent of people do.
人类历史上 大国之间
For most of human history, the powerful states and empires
经常爆发战争
were pretty much alwaysat war with each other,
和平只是战争中的插曲
and peace was a mereinterlude between wars.
今天 大国之间不再交战
Today, they are neverat war with each other.
上一次大国之战发生在65年前
The last great power war pitted the United States
交战双方为美国和中国
against China 65 years ago.
尤其近年来 不管何种战争
More recently, wars of all kinds
战争数量都更少 死亡人数也更少
have become fewer and less deadly.
年均战争率从
The annual rate of war has fallen from about
上世纪五十年代的22/10万
22 per hundred thousand per year in the early 50’s
降至今天的1.2/10万
to 1.2 today.
民主进程明显受阻
Democracy has suffered obvious setbacks
不管是在委内瑞拉 俄罗斯 还是土耳其
in Venezuela, in Russia, in Turkey
此外 在东欧和美国 民主还
and is threatened by the riseof authoritarian populism
受到日渐崛起的独裁民粹的威胁
in Eastern Europe and the United States.
但是与过去十年相比
Yet the world has never beenmore democratic
现在的世界更民主
than it has been in the past decade,
世界上三分之二的人生活在民主国家
with two-thirds of the world’s people living in democracies.
当无政府状态和世族仇杀被法律统治代替
Homicide rates plunge whenever anarchyand the code of vendetta
凶杀率就会急剧下降
are replaced by the rule of law.
欧洲从封建领主统治
It happened when feudal Europe was
成为统一集权帝国时就是如此
brought under the control of centralized kingdoms.
因此 在今天的西欧地区
So that today in Western European here
被谋杀的可能性
has 1/35th the chance of being murdered,
降低到中世纪时的1/35
compared to his medieval ancestors.
英国殖民地也是如此
It happened again in colonial New England,
美国西部地区警长转移到城镇上时也是如此
in the American Wild Westwhen the sheriffs moved to town,
墨西哥也是如此
and in Mexico.
的确 从方方面面我们都变得更安全
Indeed, we’ve become saferin just about every way.
上个世纪以来 因车祸丧生的可能性
Over the last century,we’ve become 96 percent less likely
降低了96%
to be killed in a car crash,
在人行道上被撞死的可能性降低了88%
88 percent less likelyto be mowed down on the sidewalk,
死于飞机坠毁的可能性降低了99%
99 percent less likelyto die in a plane crash,
在工作中丧生的可能性降低了95%
95 percent less likelyto be killed on the job,
因天灾死亡的可能性
89 percent less likely to be killed
降低了89%
by an act of God,
比如干旱 洪水 火灾 风暴
such as a drought, flood,wildfire, storm,
火山 山崩 地震 流星撞击等自然灾害
volcano, landslide, earthquake or meteor strike,
我猜应该不是上帝不生我们的气了
Presumably not because Godhas become less angry with us,
而且因为我们的基础设施更完善
but because of improvementsin the resilience of our infrastructure.
那上帝的招牌动作
And what about the quintessential act of God,
宙斯自己发射的炮弹又怎么样呢?
the projectile hurled by Zeus himself?
没错 我们被闪电击中
Yes, we are 97 percent less likely
而丧生的可能性降低了97%
to be killed by a bolt of lightning.
(笑)
(Laughter)
在17世纪之前
Before the 17th century,
仅有不到15%的欧洲人可以读写
no more than 15 percent of Europeans could read or write.
20世纪中期 读写能力在欧洲和美国
Europe and the United Statesachieved universal literacy
已经得到普及
by the middle of the 20th century,
世界上其他地区仍在努力普及
and the rest of the world is catching up.
今天全世界25岁以下的人口中
Today, more than 90 percentof the world’s population
90%以上有读写能力
under the age of 25 can read and write.
19世纪时
In the 19th century,
西方人每周工作时间超过60小时
Westerners worked more than 60 hours per week.
今天 他们每周工作时长不到40小时
Today, they work fewer than 40.
在发达地区 自来水和电力非常普及
Thanks to the universal penetrationof running water and electricity
而且洗衣机 吸尘器 冰箱
in the developed world and the widespread adoption
洗碗机 厨房灶具 微波炉
of washing machines, vacuum cleaners, refrigerators,
等用品的广泛使用
dishwashers,stoves and microwaves,
使得我们每周做家务的时间
the amount of our livesthat we forfeit to housework
从60小时
has fallen from 60 hours a week
降低到不足15小时
to fewer than 15 hours a week.
这些进步 在健康 财富
Do all of these gains in health, wealth,
安全 知识 休闲方面的进步
safety, knowledge and leisure
让我们更幸福了吗?
make us any happier?
当然了
The answer is yes.
世界上86%的国家
In 86 percent of the world’s countries,
幸福度在近几十年都有提高
happiness has increased in recent decades. Well,
希望我已经成功说服你
I hope to have convinced you
进步无关信仰或乐观
that progress is not a matter of faith or optimism,
进步是人类历史发展的事实
but is a fact of human history,
当然也是人类历史最重要的事实
indeed the greatest fact in human history.
怎么这些在新闻里完全没看到呢?
And how has this factbeen covered in the news?
(笑)
(Laughter)
过去几十年间 人类变得更健康 更有钱
A tabulation of positive and negativeemotion words in news stories
更明智 更安全 更幸福
has shown that during the decades
然而将新闻报道中的词汇
in which humanity has gotten healthier, wealthier,
按情绪是积极还是消极分类后列在表里
wiser, safer and happier,
我们会发现“纽约时报”竟然越来越悲观
the “New York Times”has become increasingly morose
广播也越来越阴郁
and the world’s broadcasts toohave gotten steadily glummer.
为什么人们都看不到进步呢?
Why don’t people appreciate progress?
部分原因可以用认知心理学来解释
Part of the answer comesfrom our cognitive psychology.
预测危险时我们用的是一种叫做“可得性启发法”的心理捷径
We estimate risk using a mental shortcutcalled the”availability heuristic.”
越容易回忆起来的信息
The easier it is to recallsomething from memory,
越可能会被我们用来做判断的依据
the more probable we judge it to be.
另外一部分原因来自
The other part of the answer
新闻业的本性
comes from the nature of journalism,
这是选自洋葱新闻的一则讽刺性新闻标题
Captured in this satirical headlinefrom”The Onion”:
“CNN举行晨间会议
“CNN Holds Morning Meeting to Decide
讨论今日应造成恐慌的话题”
What Viewers ShouldPanic About For Rest of Day”
(笑)
(Laughter)
(掌声)
(Applause)
新闻报道的是已经发生的事
News is about stuff that happens,
而不是没有发生的事
not stuff that doesn’t happen.
一个记者不会报道说
You never see a journalist who says,
“我正在一个40年和平的国家进行现场报道”
” I’m reporting live from a countrythat has been at peace for 40 years,”
或者“一座没有被恐怖分子袭击的城市”
or “A city that has notbeen attacked by terrorists”.
此外 坏事发生的很快
Also, bad things can happen quickly,
但是好事可不是一天就能做到的
but good things aren’t built in a day.
新闻的标题可以如此写
The papers could have run the headline,
“137000人于昨日脱贫”
” 137,000 people escaped from extreme poverty yesterday”
25年来每天标题都如此
every day for the last 25 years.
脱贫的人数达2.5亿之多
That’s one and a quarter billion peopleleaving poverty behind,
但这样的新闻你不会读的
but you never read about it.
新闻还利用了我们对于坏事发生的
Also, the news capitalizeson our morbid interest
一种病态的兴趣
in what can go wrong,
该行业有一条规则:
captured in the programming policy:
“流血的新闻能上头条”
” If it bleeds, it leads.”
如果把我们的认知偏见
Well, if you combine our cognitive biases
和新闻的本性结合起来
with the nature of news,
你就会明白为什么 世界在很长一段时间内
you can see why the world has been coming to an end
都在走向灭亡
for a very long time indeed.
我来给大家解释几个关于进步的问题
Let me addresssome questions about progress
这些问题你们一定也都想到了
that no doubt have occurredto many of you.
第一个 难道更悲观一点
First, isn’t it good to be pessimistic,
避免自得自满
to safeguard against complacency,
揭露缺点 向权威道出实情不好吗?
to rake the muck, to speak truth to power?
其实 不一定
Well, not exactly.
准确才是好的
It’s good to be accurate.
我们当然应该警觉世界各地的
Of course we should be awareof suffering and danger
灾难和危害
wherever they occur,
但是我们也得知道
but we should also be aware
如何才能减少它们的发生
of how they can be reduced,
一味地悲观同样也很危险
because there are dangersto indiscriminate pessimism.
宿命论就是其中之一
One of them is fatalism.
如果我们所有改善世界的努力都是徒劳
If all our efforts at improving the world have been in vain,
那又何必再继续努力呢
why throw good money after bad?
贫穷会伴你一生
The poor will always be with you.
而且世界将要毁灭
And since the world will end soon —
就算气候变化没有让人类灭亡
if climate change doesn’t kill us all,
出逃的人工智能也会的
then runaway artificial intelligence will —
对此的反应自然就是享受当下
A natural response isto enjoy life while we can.
开怀畅饮 尽情享乐 因为明天我们就死了
Eat, drink and be merry,for tomorrow we die.
一味悲观的另一种危害是激进
The other danger of thoughtlesspessimism is radicalism.
如果我们的体系正在崩溃 没有可能改变
If our institutions are all failingand beyond hope for reform,
人们自然就会想破罐破摔
a natural responseis to seek to smash the machine,
一了百了 把整个帝国烧成灰
drain the swamp, burn the empire to the ground,
希望这灰烬里面不管是什么
on the hope that whatever rises out of the ashes
都比我们现在所拥有的好
is bound to be better than what we have now.
不过 如果真有进步这种东西
Well, if there issuch a thing as progress,
那其缘由为何?
what causes it?
进步不是某种神秘力量或辩证法推动我们提高
Progress is not some mystical force or dialectic lifting us ever higher.
也不是历史与正义间的神秘弧线
It’s not a mysterious arc of historybending toward justice.
它是人类按照一种思想努力的结果
It’s the result of human effortsgoverned by an idea,
这种思想跟18世纪的启蒙运动有关
an idea that we associatewith the 18th century Enlightenment,
这种思想就是 把理性和科学
namely that if we apply reason and science
用来提高人类生活质量
that enhance human well-being,
是可行的
we can gradually succeed.
进步是必然的吗?当然不是
Is progress inevitable? Of course not.
进步并不意味着世界上每一个人的处境
Progress does not meanthat everything becomes better
都一直在变好
for everyone everywhere all the time.
只有奇迹发生才会这样 但进步不是奇迹
That would be a miracle,and progress is not a miracle
进步是问题的解决
but problem-solving.
问题是不可避免的
Problems are inevitable
旧问题的解决会导致新问题的出现 新问题需要再被解决
and solutions create new problems which have to be solved in their turn.
如今世界上仍有很多未解决的问题
The unsolved problemsfacing the world today are gargantuan,
包括气候变化危机
including the risks of climate change
核战争
and nuclear war,
我们得把它们看成是待解决的问题
but we must see them as problems to be solved,
而不是只能坐以待毙的天灾
not apocalypses in waiting,
我们要积极寻求解决方法
and aggressively pursue solutions
比如深度脱碳
like Deep Decarbonizationfor climate change
针对核战争的全球零核协议
and Global Zero for nuclear war.
最后 启蒙运动是与人类本性相反的吗
Finally, does the Enlightenmentgo against human nature?
这个问题对我来说很尖锐
This is an acute question for me,
因为我是人性存在论的坚定拥护者
because I’m a prominent advocateof the existence of human nature,
相信人性存在缺点与邪恶面
with all its shortcomingsand perversities.
在我的书《白板》中
In my book”The Blank Slate,”
我提出人类前景比乌托邦还悲惨
I argued that the human prospectis more tragic than utopian
我们不是散落的星骸 没有各自灿烂
and that we are not stardust,we are not golden
我们绝对不可能回归那片太初的花海
and there’s no waywe are getting back to the garden.
(笑)
(Laughter)
不过 在《白板》出版后的15年中
But my worldview has lightened up in the 15 years
我的世界观已缓和许多
since “The Blank Slate” was published.
我了解的关于人类进步的统计数字
My acquaintance withthe statistics of human progress,
最初是关于暴力方面 但现在已经
starting with violence but now encompassing
包括与生活质量有关的各个方面
every other aspect of our well-being,
这也使我更加坚信 要了解我们的苦难
has fortified my belief that in understandingour tribulations and woes,
就要先了解人性 但是人性
human nature is the problem, but human nature,
经启蒙运动所制定的规则制度引导
channeled by Enlightenment norms and institutions,
同样也是了解苦难的方法
is also the solution.
我承认 我的数据
Admittedly, it’s not easyto replicate my own data-driven epiphany
很难详尽的复现真实的人性
with humanity at large.
我的书《现代的启蒙》
Some intellectuals have responded
让一些知识分子非常愤怒
with fury to my book”Enlightenment Now,”
他们说 首先 他凭什么说知识分子痛恨进步
saying first how dare he claimthat intellectuals hate progress,
其次 他怎么敢说进步真的存在
and second, how dare he claimthat there has been progress.
(笑)
(Laughter)
其他人则完全不理会进步这个概念
With others, the idea of progressjust leaves them cold.
拯救亿万生命 消除疾病 消除饥饿
Saving the lives of billions, eradicating disease, feeding the hungry,
教育儿童?
teaching kids to read?
无聊
Boring.
同时
At the same time,
我最常收到的读者反馈是感谢
the most common response I have received from readers is gratitude,
感谢这本书改变了他们对世界的看法
gratitude for changingtheir view of the world
把他们这些麻木绝望的宿命论者
from a numb and helpless fatalism
变得以建设性 甚至以史诗的方式看待世界
to something more constructive, even heroic.
我相信理想情况下的启蒙
I believe that the idealsof the Enlightenment
可以成为激动人心的描述
can be cast a stirring narrative,
我也希望那些
and I hope that peoplewith greater artistic flare
比我更有艺术天分 更善于使用修辞的人
and rhetorical power than I
能更好的讲述 以使这启蒙更广泛地传播
can tell it better and spread it further.
其具体内容就像这样
It goes something like this.
我们的宇宙冷酷无情
We are born into a pitiless universe,
我们的生活艰难困苦
facing steep oddsagainst life-enabling order
还要一直面对失败的危险
and in constant jeopardy of falling apart.
我们被冷酷的竞争规则所塑造
We were shaped by a processthat is ruthlessly competitive.
我们是朽木之材 易被幻象所迷 被太过自我所惑
We are made from crooked timber, vulnerable to illusions, self-centeredness
有时又太蠢以致受伤
and at times astounding stupidity.
然人仍被赐予自然资源之福
Yet human nature has alsobeen blessed with resources
因此能实现某种救赎
that open a spacefor a kind of redemption.
我们被赋予不断整合思想的能力
We are endowed with the powerto combine ideas recursively,
从思想中可以孕育新的思想
to have thoughts about our thoughts.
我们有着语言的本能
We have an instinct for language,
因此可以分享我们才智和经验的果实
allowing us to share the fruits of our ingenuity and experience.
我们有强烈的同情之感
We are deepenedwith the capacity for sympathy,
怜悯之心 想象之能 激情之火 情感之灵
for pity, imagination,compassion, commiseration.
这些天赋之能逐渐增强
These endowments have found waysto magnify their own power.
语言的范围逐渐扩大
The scope of language has been augmented
现在包含书写 印刷 电子显示
by the written, printedand electronic word.
我们同情的范围已经
Our circle of sympathy has been expanded
通过历史 新闻 叙述艺术所扩张
by history, journalismand the narrative arts.
我们原来微小的理性才能成倍增长
And our puny rational facultieshave been multiplied
全因推理的规则和制度
by the norms and institutions of reason,
求知欲 公开辩论
intellectual curiosity, open debate,
敢于质疑权威和教条
skepticism of authority and dogma
致力于寻找证据证实自己的想法
and the burden of proof to verify ideas
即使与现实对立
by confronting them against reality.
在螺旋上升的过程中
As the spiral of recursive improvement
我们积攒能量 竭力维持胜利
gathers momentum, we eke out victories
以免生活之重将我们压倒
against the forces that grind us down,
尤其避免我们被人性中黑暗的一面支配
not least the darker partsof our own nature.
我们深入探索神秘的宇宙 探索生命与精神
We penetrate the mysteriesof the cosmos, including life and mind.
我们寿命更长 痛苦更少 学得更多
We live longer, suffer less, learn more,
我们变得更聪明 享有更多的小确幸
get smarter and enjoy more small pleasures
我们还有丰富的人生经历
and rich experiences.
更少人遭到谋杀 受侮辱 被奴役 被剥削
Fewer of us are killed,assaulted, enslaved, exploited
被他人压迫
or oppressed by the others.
起源于零星的绿洲
From a few oases,
和平繁荣的领土渐渐增长
the territories with peace and prosperity are growing
总有一天会覆盖全球
and could someday encompass the globe.
前方仍有无数艰难险阻
Much suffering remains and tremendous peril,
但解决的方法已渐露头角
but ideas on how to reduce them have been voiced,
大量的方法也将会出现
and an infinite number of othersare yet to be conceived.
世界不会完美
We will never have a perfect world,
寻找完美世界的想法是危险的
and it would be dangerous to seek one.
若能将知识继续用于提高人类文明
But there’s no limitto the betterments we can attain
我们就可以不断改进如今的世界
if we continue to apply knowledgeto enhance human flourishing.
这英雄的故事不只是一个新的神话
This heroic storyis not just another myth.
神话是虚构的 但这个是真的
Myths are fictions, but this one is true,
就我们所知来看就是真的
true to the best of our knowledge,
也是我们唯一能知道为真的
which is the only truth we can have.
随着我们知识增长
As we learn more,
我们就能看到
we can show which parts
哪部分仍然为真 哪部分其实是假
of the story continue to be true and which ones false,
这故事的任何一部分都可能为真或假
as any of them might beand any could become.
这个故事不只属于某一群体
And this story belongs not to any tribe
而是属于全人类
but to all of humanity,
属于每个有感知能力 有推理能力
to any sentient creature with the power of reason
并且愿意保持推理能力的人
and the urge to persist in its being,
这一切只要我们坚信
For it requires only the convictions
生存好于死亡
that life is better than death,
健康胜过疾病
health is better than sickness,
富足胜过贫困
abundance is better than want,
自由好过压迫
freedom is better than coercion,
幸福胜于苦难
happiness is better than suffering
知识好于无知迷信
and knowledge is betterthan ignorance and superstition.
谢谢大家
Thank you.
(掌声)
(Applause)
(掌声)
(Applause)

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视频概述

世界在不断进步

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视频来源

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yCm9Ng0bbEQ

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