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成功是因为运气还是努力?

Is Success Luck or Hard Work?

During the COVID lockdown, this headline went viral:
在新冠疫情防控期间 这条头条在网上疯传:
“Nearly half of men say they do most of the homeschooling.
“近一半男性表示 主要由自己辅导孩子居家学习
Three percent of women agree.”
3%的女性赞同这点”
I bring this up not to debate who’s right,
我提及这条头条不是要争论谁是对的
but because it’s a great example of something called egocentric bias:
而是因为这是一个很好的自我中心偏见的例子:
but because it’s a great example of something called egocentric bias:
而是因为这是一个很好的自我中心偏见的例子:
Most people think they do most of the work.
大多数人认为他们做了大部分的工作
For example, researchers have asked authors of multi-author papers
例如 研究人员曾向多篇多作者论文的作者们提问
what percentage of the work they personally did,
论文中的百分之多少是他们独立完成的
and when they add up those percentages,
当研究人员将这些百分比相加时
the sum is on average 140 percent.
平均每篇论文的总和是140%
When couples are asked to estimate how much of the housework they do,
当夫妇俩被要求评估他们做了多少家务时
the combined total is almost always over 100%.
相加总和总是超过100%
Now you might think this is because people want to appear more helpful than they actually are,
也许你会认为这是因为人们想表现得比他们实际情况更有用一些
but that’s not it.
但并不是这个原因
When couples are asked what fraction of the fights they start
当夫妻俩被问及百分之多少争执由自己引起
or how much of the mess is theirs,
或百分之多少的事情是自己搞砸的
the total is again over a hundred.
总和再次超过了100%
People think they do more of the work,
人们都认为自己做得更多
but they also think they cause more of the problems.
但他们也认为自己造成了更多问题
So why is this?
这是为什么呢?
I think it’s simply because
我认为这仅仅是因为
you experience and remember vividly all of what you do,
你的经历和记忆所生动呈现的都是你做了什么
but not all of what everyone else does,
而不是别人做了什么
so naturally you overestimate your own contributions and underestimate others.
所以你自然地高估了你所做的贡献而低估了他人所做的
And I think this bias leads us
并且我认为这种偏见
to underestimate the influence of other things on our lives
使我们低估了其他事物对人生的影响
like the role luck plays in our success.
比如运气在成功中起的作用
Take hockey players, for example.
以曲棍球运动员为例
If you ask a professional hockey player how they managed to reach the NHL,
如果你问一位职业曲棍球运动员是如何进入全国曲棍球联合会的
they might mention their hard work, determination, great coaches,
他们也许会提到他们的努力 决心 好的教练
their parents willingness to get up at 5 AM, and so on,
他们的父母愿意早上5点钟起床 等等
but they probably won’t acknowledge how lucky they were to be born in January.
但是他们可能不会承认自己能在一月份出生是多么幸运
And yet, in many years, 40% of hockey players selected into top tier leagues
然而 许多年来 进入顶级联盟的曲棍球运动员中
are born in the first quarter of the year,
有40%出生于一年的第一季度
compared to just 10% in the fourth quarter;
相较之下 只有10%出生于第四季度
an early birthday can make you up to four times as likely to be a pro hockey player.
生日早一点可以使你成为职业曲棍球运动员的可能性提高四倍
And the reason for this disparity is presumably because
造成这种差异的原因大概是因为
the cutoff date for kids hockey leagues is January 1st.
儿童曲棍球联赛的截止日期是1月1日
Those born in the first part of the year are a little older
那些在上半年出生的孩子更年长一些
and so on average bigger and faster than kids in their league born late in the year.
所以 平均而言 他们比联盟中下半年出生的孩子身体更壮 速度更快
And as they grow up, this difference should eventually shrink to nothing,
随着他们长大 这种差异最终本应缩小为零
but it doesn’t.
但并没有
Because the young kids who share the most promise
因为这些被寄予厚望的年轻孩子们
are given more time on the ice and enter more tournaments,
得到了更多冰上练习时间 参加了更多锦标赛
where they receive better coaching and improve their skills.
他们因此得到了更好的指导并且提升了技巧
And these advantages compound year after year.
这些优势年复一年地叠加
So by the time you get to the pros,
所以在达到专业水准之前
birthdays are heavily skewed towards the start of the year.
曲棍球运动员的生日就已严重偏向上半年
But does any professional hockey player feel thankful for their birthday?
但是那些专业的曲棍球运动员会感激他们的生日日期吗?
Probably not.
可能不会
And we are all like that, largely oblivious to the fortunate events that support our success.
我们都是这样 很大程度上忽视了支持我们成功的幸运事件
Probably the most significant bit of luck many of us enjoy
许多人所享受的最重要的一点运气
is being born into a prosperous country:
就是出生于一个繁盛的国家:
around half the variance in income received by people around the world
世界人民的收入差异
is explained by their country of residence and that country’s income distribution.
一半要归结于他们的居住国和这个国家的收入分配
If you were born in Burundi, for example,
例如 如果你出生于布隆迪
which has the world’s lowest gross national income per capita of just 730 dollars a year,
这是世界收入最低的国家 人均年收入只有730美元
it doesn’t matter how smart or hard-working you are;
你有多聪明或者多么努力都不重要
you’re unlikely to earn much as an adult.
成年后你不太可能赚到很多钱
Now many people get offended
当然 如果你指出
if you point out how big a role chance plays in their success.
某人成功更多是因为运气好 他会跟你急
And I get it!
这我理解
If we are just a product of our circumstances,
如果我们只是自己境况的产物
then our hard work and our talent seem to count for nothing.
那我们的努力和才能看起来毫无意义
People think it has to be either skill or luck that explains success,
人们认为成功的原因要么是本领要么是运气
but the truth is you need both.
但事实上这二者你都需要
Take these eight track and field world records:
拿这八项田径赛世界纪录为例:
all the athletes who achieve these records
所有创造世界记录的运动员们
are obviously world class, extremely dedicated, and talented.
显然都是世界级水平 十分敬业且很有天赋
And yet, when they achieved their world records,
然而 他们创造世界纪录时
seven out of eight had a tailwind.
有7/8的运动员是顺风比赛
And these athletes all had the ability to win a gold medal,
虽然这些运动员都有能力赢得金牌
but to set the world record required a bit of luck as well.
但是创造世界纪录同样需要一点运气
The importance of luck increases the greater the number of applicants applying for just a few spaces.
当申请比赛的人数增加时 运气的重要性也提高了
Consider the most recent class of NASA astronauts.
想一下最新一届的NASA宇航员
From over 18,300 applicants in 2017,
2017年 在超过18300人的申请人中
only 11 were selected and went on to graduate from the astronaut training program.
只有11个人被选中且成功通过宇航员训练课程
Now we can make a toy model of the selection process.
现在我们可以用玩具模型模拟选拔流程
Let’s assume that astronauts are selected mostly based on skill,experience, and hard work,
假设宇航员们更多是基于技巧 经验和努力被选中
Let’s assume that astronauts are selected mostly based on skill,experience, and hard work,
假设宇航员们更多是基于技巧 经验和努力被选中
but also say five percent as a result of luck — fortunate circumstances.
但同样有5%是运气造成的——那些走运的情况
but also say five percent as a result of luck — fortunate circumstances.
但同样有5%是运气造成的——那些走运的情况
For each applicant, I randomly generated a skill score out of a hundred,
对每个申请者 我从一到一百随机生成了一个技能分
and I also randomly generated a luck score out of a hundred.
也随机给了他们一个一到一百之间的幸运值
Then I added those numbers together, weighted in the 95-to-5 ratio to get an overall score.
然后我把这些数字以95:5的权重相加得到总分
This score represents the selector’s judgments,
这些分数代表着选拔人员的判断结论
meaning the top 11 by this metric would become astronauts.
这意味着在这个衡量标准下的前11个人将会成为宇航员
And I repeated this simulation a thousand times
我把这项模拟重复了1000次
representing a thousand different astronaut selections.
代表着进行了1000次宇航员筛选
And what I found was the astronauts who were picked were very lucky;
之后我发现那些被选中的宇航员是相当幸运的;
they had an average luck score of 94.7.
他们的平均幸运值是94.7分
So how many of the selected astronauts would have been in the top 11 based on skill alone?
那么有多少被选中的宇航员是仅凭技能进入前11名的?
The answer was, on average, only 1.6.
答案是:平均仅有1.6个
That means, even with luck accounting for just 5% of the outcome,
那意味着 就算运气值仅占结果的5%
9 or maybe 10 of the 11 applicants selected
如果运气不被算在内的话
would have been different if luck played no role at all.
11位被选中的宇航员中有9位 甚至是10位 将会不同
When competition is fierce, being talented and hard-working is important,
当竞争十分激烈时 天赋和努力是重要的
but it’s not enough to guarantee success.
但是这不能保证成功
You also need to catch a break.
你还需要一点运气
Largely, I think we’re unaware of our good luck
我认为我们未察觉自身的好运主要是因为
because, by definition, it’s not something we did.
根本而言 它不是我们行为的结果
Like the housework done by your significant other, it goes unappreciated.
就像你并不把另一半做的家务放在心上
And here’s the crazy thing:
然而 不可思议的是:
Downplaying the importance of chance events may actually improve your probability of success,
淡化偶然事件的重要性实际上会提高你成功的机率
because if you perceive an outcome to be uncertain you are less likely to invest effort in it.
因为如果你意识到成功是不确定的 你就不会全力以赴
which further decreases your chances of success.
而这进一步降低了你成功的机率
So, it’s a useful delusion to believe you are in full control of your destiny.
所以 相信自己完全掌握命运是一种有益的错觉
I mean, if I had known how bad I was when I started YouTube
比如 如果我刚开始做YouTube频道时就知道我有多差劲
or how much work it would take,
或者我要付出这么多努力
I might have given up right then.
我也许当即就放弃了
“Welcome to Veritasium: an online science video blog.”
“欢迎来到Ve元素:一个线上科学视频博客。”
Now there may be another benefit to overlooking your lucky breaks,
忽略你的好运也许还有另一个好处
which is it makes it easier to justify your place in society:
那就是证明你的社会地位会变得更加容易
if you have a lot of wealth or power,
如果你很富有或者位高权重
you can just chalk it up to your own intelligence, effort, and perseverance.
你可以认为这是你个人才智 努力和毅力的结果
It makes it easier to accept inequality.
这样你会更容易接受不平等
In one experiment, participants were put in groups of three in small rooms
在一项实验中 参与者三人一组呆在小房间中
to discuss a complex moral problem,
讨论一个复杂的道德问题
and one person in each group was randomly designated the team leader.
并且每一组有一个人会被随机指定为小组长
Half an hour later, the experimenter came by with four cookies for each team.
半小时后 实验人员给了每一组四块饼干
So who got the extra cookie?
多出来那块谁拿了呢?
In each case, it went to the team leader.
每一组都是组长得到了它
Even though they had no special aptitude, they didn’t have extra responsibilities
即使他们没有特别的才能 也没有额外的职责
and they’d gotten their position through chance alone.
仅仅是机缘巧合得到了这个职位
Once you have achieved a certain status,
一旦你得到一个特定的身份
it seems natural to feel like you deserve it and
你似乎会自然而然地认为 你理应得到这个身份
all the other good things that come your way.
以及它给你带来的其他好处
And this is just an anecdote,
我这儿有个小故事
but whenever I’ve been upgraded to fly a business class,
就是每当我被升级到商务舱时
I’ve always observed the worst behavior in my fellow privileged passengers;
我总会观察到同舱的“上等”乘客做出的最糟糕的举止
they just act so entitled and uncourteous.
他们竟然表现得那么仗势欺人
And research has found evidence for this as well.
研究也发现了这方面的证据
In another experiment, participants were asked to think of a good thing that happened to them recently,
在另一个实验中 参与者被要求回忆一件近期发生在他们身上的好事
and then one group was asked to list their own personal qualities or actions that made that good thing happen,
然后 一个小组要列出使得这件好事发生的个人品质或者行为
another group was asked to list external factors beyond their control that led to the event,
另一组要列出致使这件好事发生的其他不可控的外部因素
and a control group was simply asked to list reasons why the good thing happened.
对照组只是简单列出这件好事发生的原因
Now for completing this task, participants were told they would be paid a dollar,
为了完成这项测试 参与者被告知他们将会得到一美元的报酬
but at the end they were offered the option to donate some or all of the money to a charity.
但最后他们可以选择向一所慈善机构捐赠部分或者全部酬劳
Results showed those who listed their own personal attributes contributed 25% less
结果显示 那些列出个人贡献的人所捐赠的数额
than those who listed external factors beyond their control.
要比那些写下外部不可控因素的人少25%
Now think of what all this means for people in our society,
现在想一想这一切对于我们社会中的人意味着什么
specifically for people in positions of power like business leaders and politicians.
尤其是那些位高权重的人 比如商业领袖和政客
Now undoubtedly most of them are talented and hard-working,
毫无疑问 他们中的大多数是有天赋并且努力的
but they have also been luckier than most,
但是他们同样比大多数人要更幸运
and like most of us, they don’t realize just how lucky they are.
就像我们许多人一样 他们没有意识到自己多么幸运
And this gives them a distorted view of reality.
这使得他们对于现实的认知产生了偏差
They’re kind of living in a form of survivor bias:
他们似乎生活在一种幸存者偏差中:
all these leaders have worked hard and ultimately succeeded,
所有的这些领袖们努力工作并且最终取得成功
So, to them, the world appears fair.
所以在他们看来 世界挺公平的
In their experience, it rewards hard work,
在他们的经历中 努力工作会有回报
but what they don’t have is the experience of all the people who have worked hard and failed.
但是他们没有经历过那些付出努力却最终失败的人的经历
So what are they to make of people less successful than themselves?
那么他们如何看待那些没他们成功的人呢?
Well, the natural conclusion is that
当然 成功人士自然认为
they must just be less talented or less hard-working.
一定是这些失败者不够有天赋或者不够努力
And this perspective makes them less inclined to be generous to give back.
这种观点让他们不会那么慷慨地去回馈社会
And they are the ones who set the rules for how society operates.
他们是制定社会运转规则的人
And this is particularly unfortunate
这是非常糟糕的
since one of the main ways many of us are lucky is in our country of residence.
因为大多数人碰到好运的途径存在于我们居住的国家中
But what is a country except for the things put there by people who came before?
但是 除了前人留下的东西 一个国家是什么样的?
The roads and the schools, public transport, emergency services, clean air and water, everything like that.
像街道 学校 公共交通 急救服务 清新的空气和水这样的东西
It seems a cruel trick of our psychology that
这似乎是我们心理上一个残忍的圈套
successful people without any malice
成功人士毫无恶意地
will credit their success largely to their own hard work and ingenuity,
将自己的成就归功于他们的努力和聪明才智
and therefore contribute less to maintaining the very circumstances that made that success possible in the first place.
因此他们会花更少的精力去维系最初成功时的客观环境
The good news is that acknowledging our fortunate circumstances
好消息是 承认我们幸运的境况
not only brings us more in line with reality,
不仅使我们更顺应现实
it also makes us more likeable.
也使我们更讨人喜欢
In a study where people had to read the transcript of a fictional 60-minutes interview
在一项研究中 人们要阅读一份长60分钟的虚构采访笔录
with a biotech entrepreneur,
采访对象是生物科技企业家
experimenters tried changing just the last paragraph
实验人员仅仅是修改了最后一段
where the interviewee is talking about the reasons for their company’s success.
那一段是受访者讲述他们公司成功的原因
In one version, the entrepreneur personally takes credit for the success they’ve had,
其中一个版本中 企业家将成功归功于自己
but in the other, he says luck played a significant role.
但是另一个版本中 他说运气起到了重要作用
Now people who read the luck version of the transcript judged the entrepreneur as kinder,
阅读提到运气那个版本的笔录的人认为这位企业家更善良
and thought they’d be more likely to be close friends with him
相较于阅读另一个版本笔录的人
than those who read the other version of the transcript.
他们更倾向于和那位企业家成为好友
And raising our awareness of fortunate events can also make us happier
同时 提高我们对于幸运事件的认识也能使我们更加快乐
because it allows us to feel gratitude.
因为它让我们学会感激
Personally, I am grateful to Michael Stevens of Vsauce,
我个人很感激Vsauce的创始人 Michael Stevens
who on October 7th, 2012, posted the video:
他在2012年的10月7日发布了一个视频:
“How Much Does a Shadow Weigh?”,
“影子有多重?”
which shouts out my slow-motion slinky drop video,
引用了我的物体慢镜头坠落视频
and within three days my subscribers had increased by a third,
三天内 我的订阅者增长了三分之一
and within a month, they had doubled,
两个月内 人数翻了一倍
leading me to quit my part-time job
这鼓励我辞掉了兼职工作
and work exclusively on YouTube videos.
专心在YouTube上做视频
And I’m grateful to the writer of the free newspaper
我曾在悉尼火车的免费报纸上
they give out on the trains in Sydney
发现一位不太懂电力的作者
who didn’t quite understand electricity,
我十分感激他
leading me to post this picture of their article to my Instagram with the caption:
我将他的文章拍照发布在Ins账号上 并附上说明:
“What’s wrong with this picture?”
“这张照片中有什么错误?”
And I’m lucky that the first person to answer correctly was a beautiful woman
我很幸运 第一位正确回答我问题的人是位漂亮的女士
who became my future wife.
她后来成了我的妻子
Yep! That is how I met your mother.
没错! 我就是这样遇见你们的妈妈的
Now initially, I wanted to make this video just to say
一开始我想做这个视频只是想说
our circumstances and psychology conspire to make us oblivious to our own luck.
我们的境况和心理共同作用使得我们对自己的运气浑然不觉
This leads successful people to view the world as fair,
这让成功的人认为这个世界是公平的
and those less successful than them as less talented or less hard-working.
而用缺少天赋和不够努力来定义那些不如他们的人
And this is before you factor in any discrimination or prejudice.
在你把歧视或是偏见等因素考虑进来之前 他们就这样想了
But, it also became apparent to me that
但是 对我来说 很明显
I should talk about what to do
我应该谈谈你要怎么做
if you want to be successful in such a world,
才能在这样一个世界取得成功
and I think the best advice is paradoxical.
我想最好的建议看似会有点自相矛盾
First, you must believe that you are in complete control of your destiny,
首先 你必须相信你的命运完全由你自己掌控
and that your success comes down only to your own talent and hard work.
你的成功只取决于你的天赋和努力
But second, you’ve got to know that’s not true for you or anyone else.
但是其次 你要明白这对你以及其他人都不是真的
So you have to remember: if you do achieve success
所以你要记住:如果你成功是因为
that luck played a significant role and given your good fortune,
运气起了很大的作用 给你带来了好运
you should do what you can to increase the luck of others.
你要尽你所能提高他人的运气值
Hey, so I had an idea for what I could do to increase the luck of others.
嘿 我有一个提高他人运气值的好办法
And that is to give away a hundred Snatoms kits to people
那就是送100套磁力分子模型套装
who couldn’t otherwise afford them.
给那些买不起它们的人
So, if you didn’t know Snatoms is a product
你可能还不知道磁力分子模型
that I invented and kick-started five years ago.
它是我在五年前发明且推广的产品
It’s a molecular modeling kit
它是一个分子建模套件
where all the atoms snap together magnetically.
这个套件里的所有原子靠磁力吸在一起
Now, I made it
我之所以制作这个
because I really wanted to tackle the misconception that bonds store energy.
是因为我真的想解决原子键可以储存能量的这一误解
They don’t.
原子键不能储存能量
It takes energy to break them,
而且破坏原子键很费劲
and you can feel that with Snatoms.
你可以用这个磁力分子模型来感受一下
Recently, I completely retooled Snatoms.
最近 我重新改装了磁力分子模型
So there are small holes where the magnets are.
让磁铁隐藏在原子球上的小洞中
This allows them to touch directly, increasing the bonding strength,
这可以让原子零件直接接触 连接得更结实
so you can form bigger more stable molecules.
你就能做更大 更稳定的分子模型
I call these “SnatomsX”.
我称这些为“磁力分子模型X”
And yes, they are backwards compatible with original snatoms.
嗯 对 他们可以和改装前的那些分子模型通用
So, here’s my idea:
所以 我有一个想法:
for the next month you can buy Snatoms
下个月 你可以用“送好运”这个暗号
for 10% off using the code “giveluck”
以10%的折扣购买这些磁力分子模型
and for each one sold,
每卖出一套
I will give a kit to someone who can’t afford one,
我就会送出一套给那些买不起的人
up to a limit of a hundred.
直到送完100套为止
So, I’ll put links and more details in the description,
我会在视频说明中放入链接以及更多细节
and I really want to thank you for watching,
感谢收看本期视频
and thank you for all my good luck.
也谢谢你们给予我的所有好运

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视频概述

本视频生动形象地向我们阐释了运气对于成功的重要作用,也向我们解释了为什么我们更愿意把成功归功于自身的天赋和努力。所以,成功不仅仅源于我们自身的主观能动性,有时候客观条件也很重要!

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收集自网络

翻译译者

人间美好,星河闪耀🌟

审核员

审核员ED

视频来源

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3LopI4YeC4I

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