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现实是真实的吗?模拟器论据

Is Reality Real? The Simulation Argument

我们人类不可能去经历没有过滤过的宇宙本质
We humans are unable to experience the true nature of the universe, unfiltered.
我们的感知和大脑只能处理来自世界的少部分信息
Our senses and brains can only process a fraction of the world.
我们需要用到一些概念和工具来学习宇宙的真正本质
So we have to use concepts and tools, to learn about the true nature of reality
技术进步不仅仅丰富了我们关于宇宙的知识
Technological progress not only widened our knowledge about the universe,
同时让我们注意到令人不安的可能发生事件
it also made us aware of unsettling possibilities.
在未来也许模拟整个宇宙概况也会成为可能
In the future it might become possible to simulate entire universes.
但是如果有选择 我们怎么知道这不是已经发生的事情呢?
But if this is an option, how can we know that it’s not already happened?
如果……我们并不是造物者 而是创造物呢?
What if… we are not creators, but creations?
有没有我们并不是真实的可能性?而我们却根本不知道
Is it possible that we are not real, and we don’t even know it?
如果如今我们对于物理学的理解是正确的
If our current understanding of physics is correct,
那么 根本不可能能模拟出有着成千上万亿物品的整个宇宙
Then, it’s impossible to simulate the whole universe, with its trillions and trillions of things.
但是事实上我们并不需要这样做
But we don’t actually need to, anyway.
我们只需要足够的宇宙空间来骗过我们模拟出来的居民
We only need enough universe to fool the inhabitants of our simulation,
让他们觉得他们是真实的
into thinking that they’re real.
他们需要数以亿计的星系
Who needs billions of galaxies,
我们仅仅需要模拟我们的受试者能探索到的空间
we only need the space our subjects are allowed to explore.
广袤的宇宙可以仅仅是一个平坦的东西 没有什么办法可以帮助我们了解它
Jake: The vast universe could just be a flat projection, and they would have no way… to know.
那么像细胞和细菌一样的小东西呢?
What about small things like cells or bacteria?
它们并不是我们必需的
We don’t really need them.
当你使用显微镜时 你看到的东西可以马上成形
When you use a microscope, what you see could be instantly created.
就像构成你现在坐的椅子的原子一样
Same with atoms the chair you’re sitting on right now does not need to be
它们用不到无数亿的原子来模仿
simulated with quadrillions of atoms.
我们只需要它最外面的一层
We just need the outermost layer of it,
也许里面是空的 但是决定把它打开的时候你才会发现
it might be empty inside, until you decide to break it open.
你也许会感觉你的身体里面充满泡泡 但是它事实上也许是空的 直到你拆开它
Your body might feel like it’s filled with bubbly things, but it might be empty, until you open it.
我们模仿的最低要求仅仅是虚拟人类的感官
The minimum requirement for our simulation, is only the consciousness of our virtual humans.
我们的受试者仅仅需要认为模拟出来的东西都是真实的
Our subjects just need to think the simulation is real.
所以 我们都是被模拟出来的吗?
Okay, so are we being simulated?
嗯 也许 但是我们会遇到一些情况
Well, maybe, but there are a few conditions that need to be met.
很明显 在这个问题上我们没有任何权利 所以将我们说的每一句话都不用太当真
Obviously, we have no authority over this topic, so please take everything we say with a grain of salt.
基于尼克·波斯托姆提出的修订后的模拟论证版本
Based on a modified version of the original simulation argument by Nick Bostrom,
我们整理出了五个设想
we have five assumptions for you.
如果它们是正确的 亲爱的观众们 你们就是模拟出来的生命体
If they’re true, you dear viewer are living in a simulation.
设想一
Assumption one,
模拟出意识是有可能的
it’s possible to simulate consciousness
没有人知道意识是什么
Nobody knows what consciousness is.
为了论证我们的观点 我们来假设你可以通过模拟大脑来产生意识
For the sake of argument, let’s assume that you could generate consciousness by simulating a brain.
大脑是特别复杂的
Brains are pretty complex.
如果你一次就能计算出突触之间的每一次信息传播
Jake: If you count every interaction between synapses as one operation,
你的大脑以每秒10的17次方…也就是10亿的速度运转
your brain runs at about ten to the power of seventeen, for one hundred… million billion operations, per second.
让我们大概假定我们需要10的20次方的运转速度
Let’s generously assume we need ten to the power of twenty operations,
来模仿一秒钟的人类意识
to simulate one second of human consciousness.
但是 我们并不想仅仅模仿一个人类…
But, we don’t want to simulate just one human…
我们需要立刻模仿出一个人由生到死的全过程
we want to simulate all of human history at once, so we can skip around.
假设我们需要模仿两千亿平均年龄是50岁的人类
Let’s say we want to simulate two hundred billion humans, with an average life span of fifty years.
一年有三千万秒钟乘以五十年…
One year has thirty million seconds times fifty years…
乘以两千亿的人类…
times two hundred billion humans…
乘以10的20次方运转速度
times ten to the power of twenty operations.
所以我们需要每秒可以计数百万 数以万亿运转速度的电脑
So we need a computer able to handle million, trillion, trillion, trillion operations per second.
比看得见的宇宙中的星星还多
More operations than there are stars in the observable universe.
这样的电脑是不存在的
The computer like this is just impossible.
除非 这件事本身是不成立的
Except, maybe it isn’t.
设想二
Assumption two,
技术进步不会很快的停下来
technological progress will not stop anytime soon.
如果我们假定技术进步以现在的发展速度一直持续下去
If we assume that technological progress continues in a similar fashion as it has so far,
就会出现衍生出的星系文明 就有可能存在无限制电脑运行速率
then there might be galaxy spanning civilizations, with unlimited computer power at some point.
人类在科技水平上是如此先进以至于我们很难将他们与上帝区分开
Beings on a technology level so advanced, that we could barely distinguish them from god’s.
一个可以掌握百万甚至万亿种操作的电脑是一个重要成果
A computer that can handle a million trillion, trillion, trillion operations is serious business,
但是事实上已经有了可以这种电脑的概念
but there are actually concepts for computers, which could handle this.
“The Matrioshka Brain”就是理论上的超级建模
“The Matrioshka Brain”, is the theoretical megastructure,
由围绕一颗星星数以亿计的部件组成 以它的放射物为能源
made up of billions of parts orbiting a star, feeding on its radiation.
这种规模的电脑 将会有足够的能量
A computer of this scale, would have enough power to simulate many thousands,
同时模仿即使没有数百万也有数千的人文科学
if not millions of humanities, at the same time.
其他一些技术 像未来高端量子计算机的大小将急剧减小
Other technologies, like high-end future quantum computers might lower the size drastically,
所以以这种比例建造一个大城市将成为可能 或是更小
so it might be possible to do this with a structure the size of a large city, or even smaller.
但是 这种情况仅仅当有人能造成那种电脑时才会发生
But, only if there’s still someone around to build the computer.
设想三
Assumption three,
高端文明并不会影响到本身
advanced civilizations, don’t destroy themselves.
如果有一种情况 所有的文明都将影响到本身 整个讨论就结束了
If there is a point at which all civilizations destroyed themselves, this whole discussion ends here.
看向太空 你会期待宇宙被成千上万的外星居民充满
Looking into space, you’d expect to universe filled, with millions of alien civilizations,
但是我们没看到任何人
but we see nobody.
这种情况可能是“伟大过滤器”造成的
the reason for this might be, “Great Filters”
伟大的过滤器就是障碍生活必须克服的 就像是能源战
Great Filters are barriers life has to overcome, like nuclear war.
小行星 气候变化 或是黑洞发电机
asteroids, climate change or a black hole generator.
如果生活就是与生俱来的自我毁灭 就不会存在任何模拟出的东西
If life is inherently self-destructive, then there are no simulations.
在我们的费米悖论的视频中会详细解释这个问题
We explain this in more detail, in our Fermi Paradox video.
设想四
Assumption four,
超高端文明
super advanced civilizations, want to run simulations.
当我们提到后人类文明 我们并不知道我们正在说什么
When we speak of posthuman civilizations, we don’t know what we’re dealing with
把人类想象成和上帝一样强大是特别自大的
To think we know what beings as powerful as gods want… is pretty arrogant.
想象地球上生活在一个游乐园旁边的最聪明的蚂蚁
Imagine the smartest ant on earth living next to an amusement park,
它们很好奇人类都在做什么 你要尝试着给它们解释
It’s curious about what humans are up to, so you try to explain.
不幸的是 蚂蚁根本就不理解
Unfortunately, the ant just doesn’t understand.
过山车 排队 假期 娱乐的概念
The concept of rollercoasters and standing in lines and holidays and fun,
这些对于一只过着蚂蚁生活的蚂蚁来说没有任何意义
doesn’t make sense to an ant living an ant life.
这对于我们和后人类是一样的
It’s the same with us and a post human being,
和他们相比 我们就是蚂蚁
compared to them, we are ants.
对于他们来说为了娱乐或是科学模仿的行为是荒谬愚蠢的
Running simulations for fun or science, might be an absurdly stupid idea to them.
但是 如果他们同样为了任意原因做出模仿行为的 设想一 二 三也成立
But, if they do want to run simulations for whatever reasons and assumptions one, two, three are true too –
你生活在模拟世界中的可能就不为零了
then the chances are not zero that you are living inside a simulation.
设想五
Assumption five,
如果你的周围有许多模拟物 那么你有可能也是模拟出来的
if there are a lot of simulations, you are probably inside a simulation.
如果有模仿文明 很可能会存在很多模拟物
if there are simulated civilizations, It’s likely that there are a lot of them.
毕竟 我们假定后人类有几乎无限制的计算能力
After all, we assume that post human beings have access to practically unlimited computing power.
所以如果他们开始模仿 再模仿出数百万甚至数十亿的同类也会很方便
So if they run simulations, it would be convenient to run millions or even billions of them.
如果有数以亿计的模拟宇宙
If there are billions of simulated universes, there are probably trillions and trillions of
就可能有上万亿的模拟意识人类
simulated conscious beings.
这就意味着大部分的意识人类
which would mean that the vast majority of all conscious beings that will ever have existed,
从来没有存在过 而是模拟出来的
are simulated.
所以 对于每一个由肉体组成的意识人类 存在一个十亿模拟人类
So, for every conscious being made of flesh, a billion simulated ones exists.
因为我们没有任何办法知道我们是否是模拟的
Jake: Since we have no way of knowing if we are simulated… or not,
在这种情况下 你成为999百万
in this case, the chances of you being one of the nine hundred and ninety nine million
99.9万 或是999模拟体中的一个几率是非常高的
nine hundred and ninety nine thousand nine hundred ninety nine simulated ones, are pretty high.
所以 也许有些你认为真实的东西可能根本不真实
So, what you consider reality, might not be real at all
你有很大的几率是……
You really might be…
模拟出来的
simulated.
所有的这些都基于许多我们现在不能检验的设想
All of this is based on a lot of assumptions that we can’t really test right now
所以许多科学家不同意这一整个思维实验
So many scientists disagree with this whole thought experiment.
所以不要把你的房子一整个烧掉来检测它是否出现了一些小问题
So don’t burn your house down to test if there will be glitches.
如果你是模拟体 不会有太大的影响
If you are simulated, not that much changes for you
你可能是高速通过永恒的虚无的小行星
you might be on a small planet speeding through eternal nothingness,
或是电脑中的一个模拟体
or a simulation inside a computer.
你的存在不会是令人害怕或者让人感到奇怪
your existence does not become more or less scary and bizarre.
我们能期望的就是试着好好生活 开开心心
All we can hope to do is try to live good lives, and have a good time.
然后期望如果我们真的是超级电脑里的模拟体
And hope that if we actually are simulations in a supercomputer,
在这种能力下就没有人会犯错
nobody trips over the power cable.
噢 噢 噢 不 我觉得我刚刚除去了模拟体的障碍物
Oh, oh, oh no, I think I just unplugged the simulation
但是 如果那根本没关系怎么办?如果仅仅剩下一个人怎么办?如果你是一个模拟体怎么办?
But, what if that doesn’t matter, what if we are in one right now? What if you are simulated?
在Vsauce3中 杰克正在探索这个问题
Jake, over at Vsauce3 is looking into that.
点击这里看他的视频 然后订阅他的频道
Click here to watch his video and subscribe to his channel.
为什么你还在看?快去Vsauce3看视频然后订阅吧
Why are you still here? go over to Vsauce3 watch the video and subscribe,
我们保证 花的时间绝对值得……
we promise, it’s worth your time…

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视频概述

一个恐怖的事实,如果我们不是真实存在的怎么办!!!

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视频来源

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tlTKTTt47WE

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