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手机的力量消除贫困 – 译学馆
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手机的力量消除贫困

Iqbal Quadir: The power of the mobile phone to end poverty

先请大家观看一段有关孟加拉的视频
I’ll just take you to Bangladesh for a minute.
在我开始演讲之前 我想请大家先思考一个问题
Before I tell that story, we should ask ourselves the question:
贫穷为什么会存在?
Why does poverty exist?
我是说 人类实现了许多知识和科技的突破
I mean, there is plenty of knowledge and scientific breakthroughs.
我们生活在同一星球
We all live in the same planet,
但世界上仍存在许多贫穷的地方
but there’s still a great deal of poverty in the world.
我想先
And I think —
谈谈我的观点
so I want to throw a perspective that I have,
然后看看我的项目
so that we can assess this project,
或者其他项目
or any other project, for that matter,
究竟是拉大
to see whether it’s contributing or —
还是缩小了贫富差距
contributing to poverty or trying to alleviate it.
60年来 富国一直为穷国提供援助
Rich countries have been sending aid to poor countries for the last 60 years.
总体来说 这些努力并未收到成效
And by and large, this has failed.
大家可以看看这本书
And you can see this book,
作者曾为世界银行
written by someone who worked
工作了20年他发现
in the World Bank for 20 years,
这个国家难以实现经济增长
and he finds economic growth in this country to be elusive.
总的来说 这些援助对经济增长并不奏效问题是
By and large, it did not work.
为什么?
So the question is, why is that?
在我看来 我们可以从欧洲的历史得到启发我是说
In my mind, there is something to learn from the history of Europe.
即使在这里 昨天我过马路的地方
I mean, even here, yesterday I was walking across the street,
就是三位主教在500年前被处死的地方
and they showed three bishops were executed 500 years ago,
就在街对面
right across the street from here.
我想说的是
So my point is,
在欧洲 人们经历过许多斗争
there’s a lot of struggle has gone in Europe,
他们由于技术的进步而变得更有力量
where citizens were empowered by technologies.
他们要求至高的权威
And they demanded authorities from —
走下神坛最终
to come down from their high horses.
权威与公民之间的地位
And in the end, there’s better bargaining
发生了变化民主
between the authorities and citizens,
、资本主义和一切其他的制度得到充分发展
and democracies, capitalism — everything else flourished.
所以大家可以看到这样一个过程
And so you can see, the real process of —
这本长达500页的书也支持这一结论
and this is backed up by this 500-page book —
权威地位下降 而公民地位上升但是
that the authorities came down and citizens got up.
如果你持这样一个观点
But if you look, if you have that perspective,
可以看看过去60年来发生的事件
then you can see what happened in the last 60 years.
援助所起的作用恰恰相反
Aid actually did the opposite.
它使权威的地位得到巩固和加强 而公民却因此被边缘化
It empowered authorities, and, as a result, marginalized citizens.
权威并没有理由
The authorities did not have the
为征收更多税赋
reason to make economic growth happen
而推动经济发展
so that they could tax people
并聚集财富发展自己的商业
and make more money for to run their business.
因为他们能从海外得到资金援助事实上
Because they were getting it from abroad.
在那些石油资源国中
And in fact, if you see oil-rich countries,
这些国家的人民缺乏自主权 情况也是如此
where citizens are not yet empowered, the same thing goes — Nigeria,
诸如尼日利亚、沙特阿拉伯都在这些国家之列
Saudi Arabia, all sorts of countries.
因为援助、石油或矿产的作用相同
Because the aid and oil or mineral money acts the same way.
它们强化权威 但并未激发公民的作用
It empowers authorities, without activating the citizens —
包括他们的手脚 头脑和拥有的资源
their hands, legs, brains, what have you.
如果你们同意这一观点
And if you agree with that,
我认为改善这些国家状况的最好方法
then I think the best way to improve these countries
是认识到经济发展的本质是民有、
is to recognize that economic development is of the people,
民治和民享
by the people, for the people.
这才是真正的网络效应
And that is the real network effect.
如果公民能通过形成网络而更有组织、
If citizens can network and make themselves more organized and productive,
更具生产力从而能表达民声 情况将会得以改善
so that their voices are heard, so then things would improve.
与之形成对比的是
And to contrast that,
作为世界上最为重要的机构
you can see the most important institution in the world,
世界银行是政府组织
the World Bank, is an organization of the government,
由政府运营、
by the government, for the governments.
为政府谋利对比非常明显
Just see the contrast.
这就是我的出发点
And that is the perspective I have,
接下来讲一讲我的故事
and then I can start my story.
如何才能赋予公民更多的主动权?
Of course, how would you empower citizens?
我们可以利用各种各样的技术
There could be all sorts of technologies.
手机就是其中之一最近
And one is cell phones.
《经济学家》发表文章 认识到了这一点
Recently”The Economist” recognized this,
而我在12年前就偶然想到了这一点
but I stumbled upon the idea 12 years ago,
并且一直以来致力于此
and that’s what I’ve been working on.
12年前
So 12 years ago,
我曾经试图成为纽约的一名投资银行家
I was trying to be an investment banker in New York.
我和一些同事在计算机网络上相互连接
We had — quite a few our colleagues were connected by a computer network.
由于不需要交换软盘 我们变得更有效率
And we got more productive because we didn’t have to exchange floppy disks;
相互交流也更为频繁
we could update each other more often.
但有一次
But one time it broke down.
网络崩溃了这使我想起1971年的一天那时
And it reminded me of a day in 1971.
我的祖国正经历一场战争
There was a war going on in my country.
我们家从之前所住
And my family moved out of an urban place,
的城市
where we used to live,
搬到了更为安全的偏远郊区
to a remote rural area where it was safer.
记得有一次 我母亲让我去为家中一个更
And one time my mother asked me to get some medicine
小的孩子买药
for a younger sibling.
我花了一上午的时间 走了大约10英里
And I walked 10 miles or so, all morning,
才来到了卖药人的家
to get there, to the medicine man.
可那里没人 于是我又花了一下午的时间走回家
And he wasn’t there, so I walked all afternoon back.
这是毫无作为的一天所以
So I had another unproductive day.
当我坐在纽约
So while I was sitting
一幢高楼里的时候
in a tall building in New York,
我将这两次经历比较了一下
I put those two experiences together side by side,
基本得出一个结论 那就是 连线就是效率
and basically concluded that connectivity is productivity —
无论是在现代化的办公室还是在落后的村庄所以
whether it’s in a modern office or an underdeveloped village.
这很自然地意味着
So naturally, I — the implication of that is
电话是消除贫穷的武器
that the telephone is a weapon against poverty.
如果是这样
And if that’s the case,
问题在于 当时我们有多少电话?
then the question is how many telephones did we have at that time?
结果发现 当时在孟加拉
And it turns out, that there was one telephone in Bangladesh
每500人仅有1部电话
for every 500 people.
而且所有电话都集中在在少数几个城区
And all those phones were in the few urban places.
有1亿多人居住的广阔农村
The vast rural areas, where 100 million people lived,
根本没有电话
there were no telephones.
可以想像 有多少人像我浪费了那一天那样
So just imagine how many man-months or man-years are wasted,
浪费了几个月
just like I wasted a day.
甚至几年如果每人每月浪费一天
If you just multiply by 100 million people,
乘以1亿人
let’s say losing one day a month, whatever,
可以看到大量的资源都被浪费了毕竟
and you see a vast amount of resource wasted.
穷国和富国至少在一项
And after all, poor countries, like rich countries,
资源上是平等的
one thing we’ve got equal,
那就是一天24小时的时间
is their days are the same length: 24 hours.
如果丧失了这一宝贵资源
So if you lose that precious resource,
而原本与富国之间并无差距
where you are somewhat equal to the richer countries,
这将是巨大的浪费所以
that’s a huge waste.
我开始寻找证据
So I started looking for any evidence that —
检验连线是否能增加效率然而
does connectivity really increase productivity?
事实上我并没有
And I couldn’t find much, really,
找到许多证据
but I found this graph produced by the ITU,
但发现了总部设在日内瓦的国际电信联盟发布的这张图表
which is the International Telecommunication Union, based in Geneva.
它说明了一个有趣的现象大家看
They show an interesting thing.
横轴代表国家
That you see, the horizontal axis is where you place your country.
比如美国、英国在这里
So the United States or the UK would be here, outside.
图表以外竖轴表示每增加一部新电话的作用
And so the impact of one new telephone,
在这些国家非常小
which is on the vertical axis, is very little.
但如果大家看
But if you come back to a poorer country,
欠发达国家
where the GNP per capita is,
假设人均国民生产总值仅500美元或300美元
let’s say, 500 dollars, or 300 dollars,
每增加一部新电话的作用非常明显:
then the impact is huge: 6,000 dollars. Or 5,000 dollars.
6000美元或5000美元问题是
The question was,
在孟加拉安装一部新电话的成本是多少?
how much did it cost to install a new telephone in Bangladesh?
结果发现 需要2000美元所以
It turns out: 2,000 dollars.
如果花2000美元
So if you spend 2,000 dollars,
安装一部电话 假设可以用10年
and let’s say the telephone lasts 10 years,
每年增加5000美元的人均国民生产总值 10年就是50000美元很明显
and if 5,000 dollars every year — so that’s 50,000 dollars.
电话的作用不可忽视当然
So obviously this was a gadget to have.
如果
And of course,
随着数字革命的发展
if the cost of installing a telephone is going down,
安装一部电话的成本下降
because there’s a digital revolution going on,
其产生的作用将更大当时
then it would be even more dramatic.
我对经济学也略知一二
And I knew a little economics by then —
亚当•史密斯告诉我们 分工能提高生产力
it says Adam Smith taught us that specialization leads to productivity.
但是如何进行分工呢?
But how would you specialize?
假如我是渔民和农场主
Let’s say I’m a fisherman and a farmer.
克里斯也是渔民和农场主 我们都可以做很多生意
And Chris is a fisherman farmer. Both are generalists.
我们之间只有
So the point is that we could only —
通过相互联系
the only way we could depend on each other,
才能相互依靠
is if we can connect with each other.
如果我们是邻居 我可以走到他家
And if we are neighbors, I could just walk over to his house.
但即便如此 我们只能将生意局限在非常小的区域
But then we are limiting our economic sphere to something very small area.
为了拓展生意
But in order to expand that, you need a river,
需要一条河一条高速公路
or you need a highway, or you need telephone lines.
或者电话无论如何 相互连接才能相互依靠
But in any event, it’s connectivity that leads to dependability.
从而实现专业分工
And that leads to specialization.
继而提高生产力所以
That leads to productivity.
我开始反复思考这一问题
So the question was, I started looking at this issue,
并往返于孟加拉和纽约之间
and going back and forth between Bangladesh and New York.
人们告诉我
There were a lot of reasons people told me
许多没有足够电话的原因
why we don’t have enough telephones.
其中之一是缺乏购买力显然
And one of them is the lacking buying power.
穷人买不起电话关键是
Poor people apparently don’t have the power to buy.
如果电话能提高生产力
But the point is, if it’s a production tool,
我们为什么要为此担心呢?
why do we have to worry about that?
我的意思是 在美国 人们购买汽车
I mean, in America, people buy cars,
并不需要一次付清很多现款
and they put very little money down.
他们买了汽车
They get a car, and they go to work.
开车上班并用上班挣来的薪水
The work pays them a salary;
分期支付汽车款
the salary allows them to pay for the car over time.
以车养车所以
The car pays for itself.
如果电话是生产工具
So if the telephone is a production tool,
我们不需要过于担心购买力
then we don’t quite have to worry about the purchasing power.
当然即便如此
And of course, even if that’s true,
最初的购买力从哪里来?
then what about initial buying power?
那么
So then the question is,
为什么不可以几人合用一部电话呢?
why can’t we have some kind of shared access?
在美国
In the United States, we have —
每个人都需要银行服务
everybody needs a banking service,
但很少有人想要买下一家银行所以
but very few of us are trying to buy a bank.
一家银行为许多客户服务
So it’s — a bank tends to serve a whole community.
对于电话 我们也可以采用相同的办法此外
So we could do that for telephones.
人们告诉我
And also people told me that we have a lot
他们有许多基本的需求需要满足吃
of important primary needs to meet: food,
、穿、
clothing, shelter, whatever.
住等等但是 这是一种非常家长主义的做法
But again, it’s very paternalistic.
应该提高收入
You should be raising income
让人们自己决定如何支配他们的财富
and let people decide what they want to do with their money.
真正的问题在于缺乏其他一些基础设施
But the real problem is the lack of other infrastructures. See,
促使人们接纳新事物需要一些基础设施比如
you need some kind of infrastructure to bring a new thing.
互联网在美国发展得如火如荼
For instance, the Internet was booming in the U.S.
因为人们有电脑
because there were — there were people who had computers.
他们有调制解调器
They had modems.
他们有电话线 所以很容易接纳新概念
They had telephone lines, so it’s very easy to bring
比如互联网
in a new idea, like the Internet.
不发达国家缺少的正是这种基础设施比如
But that’s what’s lacking in a poor country.
人们无法查询信用记录 很少有银行提供代收费服务
So for example, we didn’t have ways to have credit checks,
诸如此类
few banks to collect bills, etc.
不一而足但这也正是为什么我会注意到孟加拉乡村银行
But that’s why I noticed Grameen Bank,
这家银行为穷人服务
which is a bank for poor people,
拥有大约1100家分行 12000名员工和230万贷款人
and had 1,100 branches, 12,000 employees, 2.3 million borrowers.
他们有这些分行我想
And they had these branches.
可以通过基站将这些分行连接成一个网络
I thought I could put cell towers and create a network.
长话多说
And anyway, to cut the time short —
之后我开始
so I started —
到银行与他们谈谈我的想法
I first went to them and said,
“你知道 也许我可以将你们所有的分行连接起来 使你们的工作更有效率 ”
“You know, perhaps I could connect all your branches and make you more efficient.”
但是 要知道
But you know, they have, after all,
他们毕竟在一个没有电话的国家里
evolved in a country without telephones,
所以实行分散管理
so they are decentralized.
我想 当然有其他原因
I mean, of course there might be other good reasons,
但这一定是原因之一
but this was one of the reasons — they had to be.
他们对于将所有分行
And so they were not that
连成网络的想法并不感兴趣
interested to connect all their branches,
只想安于现状所以
and then to be — and rock the boat.
我进一步思考这个问题 他们真正的业务是什么?
So I started focusing. What is it that they really do?
通常 某人向银行贷款
So what happens is that somebody borrows money from the bank.
买一头母牛
She typically buys a cow. The cow gives milk.
牛会产奶于是 那人将牛奶卖给村民
And she sells the milk to the villagers, and pays off the loan.
还清贷款对这人来说这是一门生意
And this is a business for her,
但为所有其他人提供了牛奶于是
but it’s milk for everybody else.
我忽然意识到 手机也可以起到一头母牛的作用
And suddenly I realized that a cell phone could be a cow.
因为那人可以向银行贷款200美元
Because some way she could borrow 200 dollars from the bank,
购买一部手机 然后将手机租给其他人使用
get a phone and have the phone for everybody.
对这人来说 这是一门生意于是
And it’s a business for her.
我写信给银行
So I wrote to the bank,
他们想了想
and they thought for a while, and they said,
说:“这主意有点疯狂
“It’s a little crazy, but logical.
但不乏逻辑如果你觉得可行 就过来实现它吧 ”
If you think it can be done, come and make it happen.
于是

我辞去了工作 来到了孟加拉
So I quit my job; I went back to Bangladesh.
我在美国成立了一家公司 名为Gonofone
I created a company in America called Gonofone,
在孟加拉语里意为“人民的手机”
which in Bengali means”people’s phone.”
这家公司得到了美国天使投资
And angel investors in America put in money into that.
之后我开始奔走于世界各地
I flew around the world.
大约100万英里
After about a million —
的行程中 我被许多人拒绝过
I mean, I got rejected from lots of places,
由于我不仅是在贫穷
because I was not only trying
国家做生意
to go to a poor country,
而且是做这些国家里穷人的生意
I was trying to go to the poor of the poor country.
大约100万英里的行程中 我虽然掉了不少头发
After about a million miles, and a meaningful —
却很有意义
a substantial loss of hair,
因为最终我成立了一个联盟来推广这项服务
I eventually put together a consortium, and —
这其中包括提供专有技术的
which involved the Norwegian telephone company,
挪威电信公司
which provided the know-how,
以及提供基础设施的孟加拉乡村银行
and the Grameen Bank provided the infrastructure to spread the service.
长话短说 这是整个国家的覆盖面
To make the story short, here is the coverage of the country.
可以看到覆盖率很高
You can see it’s pretty much covered.
即使在孟加拉 也有一些空无人烟的地方但是
Even in Bangladesh, there are some empty places.
我们今年
But we are also investing
投资了大约3亿美元
around another 300 million dollars this year
来扩大覆盖面积现在
to extend that coverage. Now,
再回到我刚才说到的母牛模式
about that cow model I talked about.
约有115 000人在其居住的社区
There are about 115,000 people who are retailing telephone services
提供公共电话服务
in their neighborhoods.
这些服务覆盖了52000个村庄
And it’s serving 52,000 villages, which represent about 80 million people.
共8千万人这些电话为公司产出了
And these phones are generating
1亿美元的经济效益
about 100 million dollars for the company.
对于每个零售服务提供者 每天获得2美元的利润
And two dollars profit per entrepreneur per day,
每年大约700美元当然
which is like 700 dollars per year.
这一模式还有很多好处
And of course, it’s very beneficial in a lot of ways.
它能增加收入 提高福利等等结果是
It increases income, improves welfare, etc.
现在
And the result is,
这一公司已成为最大的电话公司
right now, this company is the largest telephone company,
拥有350万用户115
with 3.5 million subscribers,
000部电话产生的流量
115,000 of these phones I talked about —
占到整个网络的三分之一
that produces about a third of the traffic in the network.
2004年 税后净利润为
And 2004, the net profit, after taxes —
1亿2千万美元 尽管税收数字本身也十分可观
very serious taxes — was 120 million dollars.
公司为政府财政收入贡献了大约1亿9千万美元
And the company contributed about 190 million dollars to the government coffers.
这里是我们获得的一些经验
And again, here are some of the lessons.
“政府需要提供经济上可行的服务 ”
“The government needs to provide economically viable services.” Actually,
事实上 私营公司可以做到这一点
this is an instance where private companies can provide that.
“政府需要资助私营公司”
“Governments need to subsidize private companies.”
有些人会这样想
This is what some people think.
而事实上 私营公司为政府提供税收收入
And actually, private companies help governments with taxes.
“穷人总是接受者”事实上
“Poor people are recipients.”
穷人是资源
Poor people are a resource.
为穷人服务成本太高”事实上
“Services cost too much for the poor.”
他们可以降低成本
Their involvement reduces the cost.
“穷人教育程度低 无法成大事”事实上
“The poor are uneducated and cannot do much.”
他们求知欲望强
They are very eager learners and very capable survivors.
生存本领高对此 我感到十分惊讶
I’ve been very surprised.
他们中的大多数人在一天内学会如何使用电话
Most of them learn how to operate a telephone within a day.
“穷国需要援助 ”
“Poor countries need aid.”
事实上 如果数据的准确率只有5%
Businesses — this one company has raised the —
仅这一家公司为该国贡献的国民
if the ideal figures are even five percent true,
生产总值
this one company
也已远远超过其所
is raising the GNP of the country much more
接受的援助
than the aid the country receives.
就我而言
And as I was trying to show you,
我想让大家知道
as far as I’m concerned,
援助有害 因为它让政府远离其公民
aid does damages because it removes the government from its citizens.
这是我与美国著名发明家迪恩•卡门(Dean
And this is a new project I have with Dean Kamen,
Kamen)合作的新项目
the famous inventor in America.
他制造了一些发电机
He has produced some power generators,
我们正在孟加拉的两个村庄对其进行一项试验
which we are now doing an experiment in Bangladesh,
利用牛粪产生的沼气
in two villages where cow manure is producing biogas,
为发电机提供动力
which is running these generators.
每个发电机向20户人家输送电力
And each of these generators is selling electricity to 20 houses each.
这还只是一项试验
It’s just an experiment.
我们不知道它能走多远
We don’t know how far it will go,
但目前还在进行中
but it’s going on.
谢谢
Thank you.

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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ixjxvzb2-Fw

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