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6 分钟内解释通货膨胀

INFLATION, Explained in 6 Minutes

[electronic music]
[电子音乐]
No, no cool intro, no fancy music.
没有酷炫的介绍 也没有花哨的音乐
I just want to explain inflation in six minutes.
我只想在六分钟内解释通货膨胀
I have a degree in economics.
我拥有经济学学位
I spent years trying to understand this.
我花了数年时间去理解这个问题
[ominous music]
[不祥的音乐]
so let’s see if I can boil it down.
那就让我们看看能否归纳一下
What is inflation?
什么是通货膨胀?
Why is it rising?
为什么通货膨胀率在升高?
Why are people worried?
为什么人们会为此担心?
And what do interest rates have to do with it?
还有利率和通货膨胀有什么关系?
The Federal Reserve is raising the interest rate.
美联储正在提高利率
Fed is set to raise interest rate.
美联储准备提高利率
Highest inflation in 40 years.
40年来最高通货膨胀率
Listen, I know that I make long videos.
我知道我制作的视频都很长
I’m into nuance, I’m into backstory.
因为我热衷于细微的差别和故事背景
Well, this isn’t that.
不过这个视频不是那种的
This is quick.
这个视频很快
[“quick” echoing]
[“快”回声]
No, really, this is quick.
不 我说真的 这次绝对快
Let’s go.
开始吧
[rapid electronic music]
[快节奏电子音乐]
Wait, wait, wait, rewind.
停!停!停!倒带
Hold on one second.
等一下
Before we start the timer, I need to tell you
启动计时器前我要告诉你们
that I was going to do an ad read
我以往会在解释到一半的时候
in the middle of the explanation.
读一则广告
Like I was gonna stop the explanation and do an ad read,
我往往会暂停解释然后读广告
but I realized I want this to be an uninterrupted six-minute explanation,
但我希望这是一个不间断的六分钟解释视频
so I’ll even take out the YouTube ads that are on it
所以我甚至会把里面的YouTube广告拿掉
so that it can be uninterrupted.
这样它就能不间断
正片于01:55开始
Okay, the ad is over, let’s start the clock up again
好了 广告结束了 让我们再次启动时钟
and see if I can do this explanation in six minutes.
看看我能否在6分钟内解释清楚
Here we go.
开始吧
Okay, first up, the simplest definition.
首先最简单的定义
Inflation is when there is more money in the economy
通货膨胀是经济中流动的资金
than stuff to spend it on.
要比消费的商品多
But if you’re like me,
但如果你像我一样
the simplest definition never does it for you.
最简单的定义永远不适合你
So let’s try this.
所以让我们试试这个
Imagine a village that has one market where people buy
想象有一个村庄 那里只有一个市场
all of their stuff, their food, their clothes,
人们在那里买所有的东西 包括食物和衣服
but one day the government shows up
但是有一天政府出现了
because they’re worried about the economy of this village.
因为政府担心这个村庄的经济
So they tell the people that if they want to take
所以政府告诉人们假如他们想贷款
out a loan, they’re gonna make sure
政府可以保证
that the banks will not charge them a high interest rate.
银行不会向他们收取高利率
They want to encourage the people to take out loans
政府想鼓励人们去贷款
and spend money.
去消费
Oh, and they also drop off a giant pile of cash
政府还给村庄里的每个人
for everyone in the village.
都发放了一大堆现金
And everyone in the village is like, “Sweet,
于是村庄里的每个人都这样说 “我的亲
I’m feeling pretty rich.”
我感觉自己太富有了”
Villagers now are going to their market
村民们现在要去他们的市场
and they’re buying way more stuff.
他们要买更多的东西
Many of them have been eyeing the fancy electric bike
他们中的许多人一直盯着市场上那辆别致的电动自行车
in the market that before they couldn’t justify.
之前他们没有买这辆自行车的理由
But now they totally can
但现在他们绝对有
because they have all this new money.
因为他们有这么多新钱
The store owner’s like,
店主会这样说
“Sweet. this is great for business.”
“我的亲 这么多人要买自行车 生意来啦”
But he’s running out of bikes.
但是他的自行车快卖光了
In fact, he’s running out of everything
事实上他的所有商品都快卖光了
because now all of these people have extra money
因为这些村民现在都有多余的钱
and they’re buying way more than they used to.
他们现在买的东西比以前多得多
The store owner is like,
店主会这样说
“I can’t keep up with all this demand,
“我无法满足所有这些需求
I should raise prices.”
我应该提高价格”
And that is inflation.
这就是通货膨胀
But the village is all of us
只不过村庄好比我们所有人
and the market is the entire economy.
市场就好比整个经济体
When there’s extra money floating around
当有多余的资金流动时
and people wanna spend it faster
人们想要 花钱的速度快于
than businesses can make stuff,
企业生产速度时
then all of the businesses in all of the industries raise their prices.
各行各业的企业都会提高价格
And that is inflation.
这就是通货膨胀
It’s a natural part of the economy.
它是经济的自然组成部分
It’s kind of a good thing in small doses
轻微的通货膨胀还是件好事
because it means that the economy is growing.
因为这意味着经济正在增长
And it’s why movie tickets used to be 25 cents
这就是为什么电影票过去是25美分
and now they’re like $15.
现在是15美元的原因
And slowly over time, it’s fine.
随着时间推移慢慢涨价 没什么问题
Okay, let’s go back to the village and see what happens
好了让我们回到村子里看看
if we keep going at this rate.
如果我们继续这样下去会发生什么
The store owner has now doubled his prices on bikes.
店主现在把自行车的价格提高了一倍
The interest rate is super low
利率超低
so he takes out a loan to build a new factory to make bikes.
所以他贷款建厂去生产自行车
This is good, he’s growing a business.
这很好 他正在发展业务
But the government money eventually runs out
但政府发的钱最终用完了
and his prices are still double.
自行车的价格仍然是原来的两倍
But now the store owner has no one to come buy
而现在没有人来
all of his new bikes.
买他的新自行车
And now he has this factory and more employees,
现在他拥有这家工厂和更多的员工
but no customers.
但没有顾客
He has to shut down the factory, lay off everyone,
他不得不关闭工厂并解雇所有人
and slowly start lowering his prices.
然后慢慢开始降价
This is called recession.
这就是所谓的经济衰退
When COVID shut down the world,
当新冠肺炎导致全球瘫痪时
governments gave us money, free money.
政府给了我们钱 免费的钱
They’re like, don’t panic and hoard all your money,
政府会说 不要惊慌 不要把你的钱存起来
instead spend and borrow and keep the economy going.
而是要消费和借款 要保持经济发展
Here in the U.S., they literally sent us $3,200 checks.
美国政府确实给我们寄了3200美元的支票
They gave 600 bucks a week to people who were unemployed
政府月复一月地每周给
for months and months and months.
失业者600美元
They gave subsidies to people with kids.
政府给有孩子的人补贴
They increased spending on food stamps.
政府增加了食品券的支出
I mean, trillions and trillions of dollars
政府还动用了数万亿美元的
of stimulus money.
刺激资金
This was vital aid to people in need,
这对需要帮助的人是雪中送炭
but even people who didn’t lose a job got
但即使是没失业的人
a check in the mail.
也在邮件中收到了一张支票
It was free money for everyone and we spent it.
这笔免费的钱人人有份 我们就开始消费
I just picked up myself a new bike.
我刚买了一辆新自行车
Demand is up across the country.
全国各地的需求都在上升
It’s time to grind, Peloton.
Peloton动感单车 该躁动起来了
We all just got these big checks from the government
在疫情肆虐期间
during a pandemic.
我们都刚刚收到政府的这些大额支票
We’re like YOLO, I’m buying a boat or a Peloton or whatever.
我们要及时享乐 我要买船 Peloton动感单车或别的什么
Pokemon cards.
口袋妖怪卡
There’s Netflix.
网飞视频
Fortnite. A new motor. Peloton.
堡垒之夜游戏 一辆新车 Peloton动感单车
Good soak in a hot tub. Animal crossing.
在热水浴缸里好好泡一泡 动物之森游戏
Push it out a little bit so. No, don’t you dare!
推出去一点它就 不 你敢!
But pair all this new spending with the fact
但在消费的同时 我们也要注意到
that the pandemic also made it harder for factories
疫情肆虐也让工厂 船舶和
and ships and retailers to get us all this stuff.
零售商对商品的供给更加困难
Supply chain issue.
供应链问题
Global supply chain.
全球供应链
Supply chain.
供应链
Supply Chain.
供应链
So now you have an economy where people have
所以现在你身处的经济体中
way more money than normal and they’re ready to spend it,
人们比平常更有钱 并准备去消费
but the economy can’t get them stuff fast enough.
但经济体无法足够快地供应商品给他们
So what do businesses do with all this insane new demand?
那么企业该如何应对这些疯狂的新需求呢?
They raise prices all at the same time
企业家们会同时提高价格
and that is inflation.
这就是通货膨胀
[exhaling]
[呼气]
I feel like we’re getting this at this point.
我觉得我们此时已明白了这个定义
But what do interest rates have to do with all this?
但利率和这一切有什么关系呢?
Raising the interest rate.
提高利率
Interest rate.
利率
Or the Fed?
或美联储呢?
Federal reserve
美联储
The federal reserve
美联储
Most countries have the central bank,
大多数国家都有中央银行
the puppet master of the economy,
它是经济的操纵者
the bank of all banks for that country.
是该国所有银行的银行
But it’s not like a normal bank that stores our money
但它不像一家普通的银行那样存钱
and then lends it out and collects interest to make profit.
然后借出并收取利息以获利
That’s what a normal private bank does.
这是一家普通私人银行的运作方式
The central bank, which we call the Fed here
中央银行在美国我们称之为美联储
in the U.S. is run by the government.
是由政府经营的
So their job is to set the rules or policies
所以他们的工作是制定所有其他银行
that all the other banks have to follow.
必须遵循的规则和政策
And the central bank isn’t motivated by profit,
中央银行不以利润为目的
but rather their job is to babysit the economy to keep
相反他们的工作是维护经济以保持增长
it growing, to make sure people have jobs,
确保人们有工作
to make sure that prices don’t fluctuate too much
确保价格不会波动太大
so that we can keep growing nicely, no slow down,
这样经济才能保持良好的发展
no recession, that is what the Fed is there for.
不出现放缓和衰退 这就是美联储存在的意义
But seriously, the Fed is like a puppet master
但说真的美联储就像一个木偶的操纵者
and we are the puppets and it’s kind of creepy.
我们就是木偶 这有点令人毛骨悚然
They pull strings in the economy to get us to spend
他们操纵经济
our money in a certain way,
让我们以某种方式消费
which in turn affects how much businesses raise or drop their prices.
这反过来又会影响企业提价或降价的程度
And guess what?
你猜怎么着?
It totally works.
这样做完全有效
One of the strings that they have to pull
他们操纵经济的一大工具
in the economy is called the interest rate.
叫做利率
Wanna borrow money to buy a car or a house
想借钱买车 买房
or expand your business?
或扩大业务吗?
You’re gonna be way more likely to do that
如果你只需要支付2%的利息
if you only have to pay 2% interest on that loan
而不是6%
as opposed to like 6%.
你更有可能这么做
Lower interest rates equal people
更低的利率意味着人们和企业
and businesses wanna borrow and spend money.
都想借贷和消费
So during the pandemic, the central bank was like
因此在疫情肆虐期间中央银行这样说
we need everyone to spend money.
我们需要每个人都消费
So they lowered the interest rate and people borrowed
所以他们降低了利率 人们于是贷款和消费
and people spent, and it totally worked.
降低利率的举措完全奏效了
We’re like freaking puppets.
我们真像那该死的木偶
So a lower interest rate helped stimulate the economy.
所以较低的利率有助于刺激经济
But once again, we’re in this same place where there’s now
但我们又一次回到了起点
too much money to borrow and spend
现在有太多的钱可以消费和借贷
and not enough goods and services to spend it on.
却没有足够的商品和服务供我们消费
So what do businesses do all at the same time?
那么企业这时在做什么呢?
They raise prices to meet all this new demand
他们会同时提高价格以满足所有这些新需求
all at the same time and now your money is worth less.
现在你的钱不值钱了
And that is inflation.
这就是通货膨胀
[Reporter] Home prices rising at their highest rate.
[记者]房价以最高速度上涨
Astronomical bidding war.
天文数字般的竞价战
Price are going up.
价格正在上涨
By nearly 24%.
将近24%
So that’s what’s happening right now.
这就是现在正在发生的事情
All the prices are rising kind of at the same time.
所有的价格都在同时上涨
What that means is that your hundred dollar bill is
这意味着现在你的百元美钞
now worth 8% less than it was last year.
比去年贬值了8%
Like the same money is worth less
就相当于同样的钱价值变低了
because your purchasing power just got diluted.
因为你的购买力被稀释了
And imagine if that keeps happening?
想象一下 如果这种情况继续发生?
Like instead of 8% it’s 50%?
比如说不是8%而是50%?
Now your hundred dollar bill is worth what $50 used to be.
现在你的百元美钞只值过去50美元的价值
And that’s when people start to freak out.
所以人们就开始抓狂了
And our economy that’s built on human psychology starts to falter
我们建立在人类心理基础上的经济开始动摇
and we fall into a recession or a depression, even,
我们甚至会陷入经济衰退或萧条
because it’s real bad,
因为情况真的很糟糕
which is exactly what the Fed is built to avoid.
这正是美联储所要避免的
So they’re back to pulling their strings
所以他们又开始了幕后操纵
and they’ve started raising rates.
他们已经开始提高利率
The Federal Reserve is raising interest rates.
美联储正在提高利率
The Federal Reserve taking action to try and curb
美联储采取行动试图遏制
rising inflation.
不断加剧的通货膨胀
They’re gently raising the interest rate to cool down
他们正在缓慢地提高利率
all of this hardcore spending and borrowing,
来给消费狂潮和借贷热潮降温
see if they can steer the ship back on course.
那就看看他们能否把经济带回正轨
And let’s hope it works.
希望这能起作用
Okay, did we do it?
好了我们做到了吗?
Did we do, did we do it in the time period
我们做到了吗?
that I promised I would?
我们在我承诺的时间内做到了吗?
[Nick] I have no idea.
[尼柯摄影机]我不知道
We’ll find out.
我们会弄清楚的
[jazz music]
[爵士乐]
Okay, last thing I wanna say is a thing that didn’t make it
好了我最后还想说一件事
into my little inflation explainer,
我没有把这件事放进我的通货膨胀简单解释里
but a few years ago when I worked at Vox,
几年前我在Vox公司工作的时候
I went to Venezuela and Columbia to do a borders series.
我去委内瑞拉和哥伦比亚做了一个《边境》系列
I saw inflation up close and personal because in Venezuela,
我亲眼目睹了通货膨胀
inflation got so out of control and they couldn’t,
因为委内瑞拉的通货膨胀失控了
the Fed, the puppet master couldn’t figure out
经济操纵者央行想不出
how to get it back in control
如何使其恢复控制
that their money became worth nothing.
他们的钱变得一文不值了
The prices went up so high
价格涨得非常高
that their money became basically worthless.
以至于他们的钱基本上一文不值
You needed like a pile of cash to buy bread.
你需要一大堆现金来买面包
So what they started doing is they started using
所以他们开始
the currency itself to make things.
使用货币本身来制造东西
I visited this guy on the street who was making
我在街上拜访了一个
purses and bags and sculptures out of cash
用现金制作钱包 袋子和雕塑的人
because it was worth more as a raw material than it was
因为它作为一种原材料比作为货币更值钱
as money, as a currency, which is insane.
这太疯狂了
That’s a very extreme version of inflation.
这是极端的通货膨胀
It’s happened in several countries that have done this.
有几个国家发生过这种情况
We’re not in that situation, even close to that situation,
我们还没有处于或接近那种情况
but it’s an example
但这是体现现代经济
of just how tenuous modern economies are.
多么脆弱的例子
They’re not pegged to gold or whatever.
这几个国家不与黄金或任何东西挂钩
They’re pegged to a bunch of humans believing
而是与相信这个东西有价值的一群人
that this stuff is worth something
相挂钩
and it can quickly go off the rails.
这样做很快就会脱离轨道
So I thought I’d share that little, fun thing
所以我想分享这件小趣事
that is more documented in the Vox borders episode
在Vox《边境》集中还有更详细的记录
that you can go watch on the Vox YouTube channel.
你可以在YouTube的Vox频道上观看
So that’s all I’ve got.
以上就是视频的全部内容
Thank you all for being here
谢谢大家观看
and I think you should check out, if you want to color
如果你想给你的视频或照片上色
your videos or your photos, I have LUTs and presets
我想你应该去看看
that you can use to color correct your stuff.
你还可以用我们的预设LUT来给你的图片或视频调色
I also have a storytelling course
我在YouTube的Bright Trip频道上还有一门讲故事的课程
on Bright Trip where I talk about my methodology
在上面我和纳撒尼尔·德鲁讨论了
for visual storytelling with Nathaniel Drew.
我的视觉故事讲述方法
I think that’s sort of it, all the plugs I should do
我想这就是我在这些视频结束时应该植入的所有推广
at the end of these videos, but yeah, lots more to come.
当然还会有更多推广
We’re working on lots of amazing videos
我们正在制作很多精彩的视频
and I’m really excited to share them.
我真的很兴奋能与大家分享
So I’ll see you in the next one.
下个视频见
Bye, everyone.
再见 各位
Okay.
好的

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视频概述

什么是通货膨胀?这是个非常复杂的问题,我花了数年时间去研究它,本期视频我将在六分钟内向你解释明白。

听录译者

收集自网络

翻译译者

黄洪宇

审核员

审核员XH

视频来源

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zIbNJCSCEjk

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