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如何用博弈论取胜 击败聪明的对手

How to Win with Game Theory & Defeat Smart Opponents | Kevin Zollman | Big Think

如何运用博弈论取胜
When one is confronted with a situation that’s truly zero sum
当一个人面临零和博弈的处境
where one party is going to win and the other party is going to lose
一方要赢而另一方要输
a situation is very complicated
这种情况很复杂
and sometimes difficult to analyze.
有时候还很难分析
Game theory spent much of its early days analyzing zero sum games
博弈论在前期花了很多时间分析零和博弈
and trying to figure out what’s the best strategy.
试着找出最佳策略
It’s a little complicated
这有点复杂
because it depends critically on how sophisticated you think the other party is.
因为它主要取决于你认为对方有多老练
If they’re very, very, very smart,
如果他们非常非常非常聪明
the chances that you’re going to outthink them are not very high.
你在思想上超越他们的几率就不是很高
In such a situation often times the best strategy is very counterintuitive,
经常处于这种处境下的最佳策略是反直觉的
because it involves flipping a coin or rolling a dice
因为它涉及了抛硬币 掷骰子
or doing something random.
或者做一些随机的事
Professional poker players know this
专业的扑克玩家很熟悉这个策略
and they often times advocate in poker strategy books
他们经常在扑克策略书中提倡
that one should occasionally do something completely counterintuitive
一个人应该偶尔做些完全反直觉的事情
in order to keep your opponents off guard.
这样才能让你的对手放松警惕
And in fact game theory has shown that
实际上 博弈论证明
this is good, solid, mathematically well-founded advice
这是个好的 可靠的 有理有据的建议
that often times what you want to do is engage in a kind of random strategy
很多时候你想要做的是运用一种随机策略
—game theorists call this a mixed strategy
——博弈理论家称这个为混合策略
—in order to make sure that your opponent can’t get the leg up on you.
——以确保对手不会占上风
The nice thing about these random strategies is that
这些随机策略好的方面是
they ensure that your opponent can never outthink you.
他们确保你的对手不会在思想上超越你
So even if you think your opponent is a little smarter than you
所以即使你认为你的对手比你要聪明
or a little bit more sophisticated than you or has a little bit more information than you do,
或比你更老练 又或是比你掌握更多信息
the fact that you’re being random to a certain extent
事实上 采用随机策略在某种程度上
means that they can’t outthink you.
意味着你的对手不能超越你
Now how do you figure out how to be random?
那么要怎么做到随机呢?
I’m not saying just flip a coin all the time or whatever.
我不是说一直抛硬币或是什么
What game theorists have figured out is that in zero sum games
博弈理论家已经发现在零和博弈中
the best strategy to pursue when you’re against a sophisticated opponent
当面对老练的对手时 最好的策略是
is to adopt the strategy which minimizes your maximum loss.
运用能够减少最大损失的对策
This is sometimes called the mini max strategy.
这有时叫作极小极大策略
So the idea is you think:
所以这个策略需要你思考
what’s the worst case scenario for me?
对于我来说最坏的情况是什么?
What could my opponent do that would make me worse off?
我的对手会做什么使我占下风?
And then you figure out what’s the best strategy against that,
然后找到应对这种情况的最好策略
so you’re minimizing your maximum loss.
也就是最小化你的最大损失
Game theorists prove that if you use this way of thinking
博弈理论家证明 如果你用这种方式思考
minimizing your maximum loss
最小化你的最大损失
you ensure that no matter how sophisticated your opponent is
这样能够确保的是 不论你的对手有多老练
you’ve guarded against the worst case scenario.
你已经提防了最坏的情况发生
And not only that but in zero sum games
不仅如此 在零和博弈中
you’ve done the best you can possibly do.
你已经做了自己尽可能做的
That’s not true in games that aren’t zero sum,
在非零和博弈中 这是不正确的
so one has to be very careful about employing this strategy,
所以需要非常小心地运用这个策略
because if you’re mistaken
因为如果判断错误
and you’re not in a zero sum interaction
不是在零和博弈的情况下
you could end up ruining it for everybody.
最后可能会使所有人都面临困境
But if you’re truly in a zero sum interaction
但如果真的是在零和博弈中
this is one of the strategies that you can use.
这是你可以运用的一个策略
Now suppose that you’re dealing with an opponent who’s not sophisticated,
假如你面对的对手不老练
you are smarter than they are
你比他们聪明
there it depends very much on: how smart are they?
这就很大程度上取决于他们有多聪明?
Can you outthink them?
你可以超越他们吗?
And what’s the individual interaction that you’re engaged in?
你是怎么揣摩他们的反应的?
So to return it to the example of poker players,
所以回到扑克玩家的例子
poker players will engage in interactions where they’re trying to think,
扑克玩家会试着去揣摩对方的想法
“Well does my opponent think I’m going to bluff here, yes or no?
我的对手认为我要虚张声势 是或不是?
And maybe I’ll do the opposite.”
或许我会做相反的事情
But that’s going to depend on how smart is your opponent?
但是这取决于你的对手有多聪明
What are they thinking about
他们在想什么
and the individual interaction that you’re engaged in.
你怎么揣摩他们的反应
Game theorists have actually proven
博弈理论家实际上证明了
—although it’s not very helpful
——虽然不是很有帮助
—but game theorists have actually proven that
——但博弈理论家实际上已经证明了
there is no the one size fits all strategy
在你的对手没有很老练的情况下
in a situation where you’re dealing with an opponent who is not very sophisticated.
并没有一个“放之四海而皆准”的策略

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视频概述

当你处于零和博弈的处境时,运用博弈论可以帮助你取胜

听录译者

收集自网络

翻译译者

米娜

审核员

审核员TOP

视频来源

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DXH2EGjRpY4

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