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保持冷静的秘诀

How to stay calm when you know you'll be stressed | Daniel Levitin

几年前 我闯进了自己的房子
A few years ago,I broke into my own house.
那大约是蒙特利尔的晚冬 我看望完我的朋友杰夫后
I had just driven home, it was around midnightin the dead of Montreal winter,
穿过小镇开车回到家
I had been visiting my friend,Jeff, across town,
走廊里的温度计显示零下40度
and the thermometer on the front porchread minus 40 degrees —
不管是摄氏还是华氏
and don’t bother askingif that’s Celsius or Fahrenheit,
零下40度 这两个计量方法 -都非常地冷
minus 40 is where the two scales meet — it was very cold.
我站在走廊里哆哆嗦嗦的摸进口袋
And as I stood on the front porchfumbling in my pockets,
我发现我的钥匙不见了
I found I didn’t have my keys.
事实上 我能透过窗户看见它
In fact, I could see themthrough the window,
我把它落在了厨房的桌子上了
lying on the dining room tablewhere I had left them.
所以我跑着寻找周围所有其他的门和窗户 它们都被锁得紧紧的
So I quickly ran aroundand tried all the other doors and windows, and they were locked tight.
我考虑打电话给开锁匠——至少我还有手机
I thought about calling a locksmith –at least I had my cellphone,
但是半夜 等开锁匠过来得等一会儿
but at midnight, it could take a whilefor a locksmith to show up,
天气太冷了
and it was cold.
由于太晚了我不能回朋友杰夫那
I couldn’t go back to my friendJeff’s house for the night
而且第二天早上我还要乘早班飞机去欧洲
because I had an early flightto Europe the next morning,
我需要拿护照和行李
and I needed to getmy passport and my suitcase.
所以 那一刻我感到绝望透了 而且要被冻僵了
So, desperate and freezing cold,
我找到了一块大石头我打碎了地窖的窗户清除掉玻璃碴子
I found a large rock and I brokethrough the basement window, cleared out the shards of glass,
我爬进去 找到一块木板 粘在开口处
I crawled through, I found a piece of cardboardand taped it up over the opening,
早上做上记号 在去机场的路上
figuring that in the morning,on the way to the airport,
我给我的房东打电话 让他去修理
I could call my contractorand ask him to fix it.
这可能很贵 但是不可能比半夜找开锁匠更贵
This was going to be expensive, but probably no more expensivethan a middle-of-the-night locksmith,
所以我想 在这种情况下 我只能这样做
so I figured, under the circumstances,I was coming out even.
现在经过培训我已成为一名神经系统科学家
Now, I’m a neuroscientist by training
我了解了一点点大脑在压力之下会如何表现的知识
and I know a little bitabout how the brain performs under stress.
它会释放皮质醇 使你的心跳加快
It releases cortisolthat raises your heart rate,
还会调节你的肾上腺素水平 使你的思想消极
it modulates adrenaline levels and it clouds your thinking.
第二天早上 我只睡了一小会就醒来了
So the next morning, when I woke up on too little sleep,
一直在担心窗户上的洞
worrying about the hole in the window,
大脑提醒我我必须给房东打电话 还有令人冻僵的温度
and a mental notethat I had to call my contractor, and the freezing temperatures,
和即将到来的我的欧洲会议
and the meetings I had upcoming in Europe,
而且 你知道 随着我满脑子皮质醇的增多 我的思想完全混乱了
and, you know, with allthe cortisol in my brain, my thinking was cloudy,
由于思维混乱 我根本意识不到这个问题
but I didn’t know it was cloudybecause my thinking was cloudy.
(大笑)直到我到了机场的检票口
(Laughter) And it wasn’t until I gotto the airport check-in counter,
我才意识到我没有带护照
that I realized I didn’t have my passport.
(大笑)
(Laughter)
所以我在冰雪中飞奔回家 用了40分钟
So I raced home in the snowand ice, 40 minutes,
拿到我的护照 又奔回机场 刚好及时赶上飞机
got my passport,raced back to the airport, I made it just in time,
但是他们把我的座位赠给了其他人
but they had given awaymy seat to someone else,
所以我倚着飞机座的后背 挨着盥洗室
so I got stuck in the back of the plane,next to the bathrooms,
在一个不能斜椅的座位旁边度过了8小时的飞行时间
in a seat that wouldn’t recline,on an eight-hour flight.
其实在那八个小时的时间里 我没有睡觉 我有许多时间思考
Well, I had a lot of time to thinkduring those eight hours and no sleep.
(大笑)我开始想 如果我把能做的都做了 系统方法应用在正确的地方
(Laughter) And I started wondering,are there things that I can do, systems that I can put into place,
就能阻止坏事情的发生了吗?
that will prevent bad thingsfrom happening?
或者至少 如果不好的事情发生了 也要将灾难的可能性降到最低
Or at least if bad things happen, will minimize the likelihoodof it being a total catastrophe.
所以我开始思考这些 但是直到一个月后我才理清思绪
So I started thinking about that, but my thoughts didn’t crystallizeuntil about a month later.
我正和我的同事丹尼·卡内曼吃晚饭 他是诺贝尔奖获得者
I was having dinner with my colleague,Danny Kahneman, the Nobel Prize winner,
我略带尴尬地告诉他我打破玻璃的事情
and I somewhat embarrassedly told himabout having broken my window,
还有你知道的 忘记护照的事情 丹尼和我分享了
and, you know, forgotten my passport, and Danny shared with me
他一直在练习叫做展望后见之明的东西
that he’d been practicingsomething called prospective hindsight.
(大笑)那是他从心理学家盖理·克莱因那知道的
(Laughter) It’s something that he had gottenfrom the psychologist Gary Klein,
盖理·克莱因几年之前写过这方面的东西
who had written about ita few years before,
也叫提前为即将发生的坏事情做准备
also called the pre-mortem.
现在 你们都知道死后会怎么样了
Now, you all know what the postmortem is.
无论什么时候有灾难 一组专家就会赶来他们会努力搞清楚哪里出了问题 对吗?
Whenever there’s a disaster, a team of experts come in and they tryto figure out what went wrong, right?
嗯 丹尼解释说 提前为坏事情做准备
Well, in the pre-mortem, Danny explained,
你往前看 你要努力弄清楚所有可能出错的细节
you look ahead and you try to figure outall the things that could go wrong,
然后努力弄清楚你能做什么
and then you try to figure outwhat you can do
可以让阻止那些事情的发生或者使损失降到最低
to prevent those things from happening,or to minimize the damage.
所以今天我想跟你们讨论的是
So what I want to talk to you about today
在事情发生之前我们能做的事
are some of the things we can doin the form of a pre-mortem.
一些东西很明显 一些东西很含蓄
Some of them are obvious,some of them are not so obvious.
我们先从明显的这方面来说
I’ll start with the obvious ones.
在家周围 指定一个容易丢东西的地方
Around the home, designate a placefor things that are easily lost.
现在 这听起来像常识 就是这样
Now, this soundslike common sense, and it is,
但是基于空间记忆的方法
but there’s a lot of scienceto back this up,
有许多要备份的科学
based on the way our spatial memory works.
在大脑内有一个结构叫海马结构
There’s a structure in the braincalled the hippocampus,
它经过了上万年的进化
that evolved over tensof thousands of years,
去追踪重要的事情的地址
to keep track of the locationsof important things —
井在哪哪能找到鱼
where the well is,where fish can be found,
哪里有果树
that stand of fruit trees,
哪里生活着朋友 哪里生活着敌人
where the friendly and enemy tribes live.
海马结构是大脑的一部分 它被伦敦的出租车司机扩大化了
The hippocampus is the part of the brain that in London taxicab driversbecomes enlarged.
它是大脑的一部分 它可以让松鼠找到它们的坚果
It’s the part of the brainthat allows squirrels to find their nuts.
如果你想搞清楚 其实有人曾做过实验
And if you’re wondering,somebody actually did the experiment
他们切掉了松鼠的嗅觉器官 发现松鼠仍能找到它们的坚果
where they cut offthe olfactory sense of the squirrels, and they could still find their nuts.
他们不用嗅觉而是用海马结构
They weren’t using smell,they were using the hippocampus,
这是由于大脑在找东西方面的敏锐的进化机制
this exquisitely evolved mechanismin the brain for finding things.
但是不经常移动一些东西是正确的
But it’s really good for thingsthat don’t move around much,
经常移动东西其实没有好处
not so good for things that move around.
所以这就是我们丢钥匙 眼镜和护照的原因
So this is why we lose car keysand reading glasses and passports.
因此在家 为你的钥匙指定一个位置–
So in the home,designate a spot for your keys —
挂在门上的钩子上 或者一个装饰的容器里
a hook by the door,maybe a decorative bowl.
你的护照 放在特定的抽屉里
For your passport, a particular drawer.
你的眼镜 放在特定的桌子上
For your reading glasses,a particular table.
如果你指定一个位置 而且特别谨慎地对待这件事
If you designate a spotand you’re scrupulous about it,
当你找你的东西时 它会一直在那
your things will always be therewhen you look for them.
如果是旅行呢?
What about travel?
给你的信用卡
Take a cell phone pictureof your credit cards,
你司机的证件 你的护照拍下照片
your driver’s license, your passport,
在云端上发给自己
mail it to yourself so it’s in the cloud.
如果这些东西丢了或者被盗了 你能容易地找到替代品
If these things are lost or stolen,you can facilitate replacement.
现在这些是一些相对明显的事情
Now these are some rather obvious things.
记住当你在压力之下的时候 大脑会释放皮质醇
Remember, when you’re under stress,the brain releases cortisol.
皮质醇是有毒的 它会使我们的思维混乱
Cortisol is toxic,and it causes cloudy thinking.
所以练习事前对坏结果做好准备
So part of the practice of the pre-mortem
便是承认在压力之下你并不处于最好的状态
is to recognize that under stressyou’re not going to be at your best,
你应该把东西系统化
and you should put systems in place.
可能没有比你在面对做医疗决定
And there’s perhapsno more stressful a situation
更大的压力的状况了
than when you’re confrontedwith a medical decision to make.
在某种意义上来讲 我们所有人都要面对那一天
And at some point, all of usare going to be in that position,
那个时候我们不得不对自己的医疗护理方面做一个重要决定
where we have to makea very important decision
或帮助我们爱的人的这方面做一个决定
about the future of our medical careor that of a loved one, to help them with a decision.
所以我想讨论这个
And so I want to talk about that.
我要讨论一个非常特殊的医疗状况
And I’m going to talk abouta very particular medical condition.
但是这代表作为一个代理人做各种医疗决定
But this stands as a proxy for all kindsof medical decision-making,
甚至做资金决定和社会决定–
and indeed for financial decision-making,and social decision-making —
你不得不做一些决定
any kind of decision you have to make
根据事实的理智的判断来获得最大利益
that would benefit from a rationalassessment of the facts.
所以假设你去找你的医生 医生说
So suppose you go to your doctorand the doctor says,
“我刚拿回你的检测报告 你的胆固醇有点高”
“I just got your lab work back,your cholesterol’s a little high.”
现在 你们都知道高胆固醇
Now, you all know that high cholesterol
会增长患心血管疾病 心脏病 中风的风险
is associated with an increased riskof cardiovascular disease, heart attack, stroke.
所以你意识到高胆固醇不是件好事情
And so you’re thinking having high cholesterolisn’t the best thing,
所以医生说 :”你知道 我想给你开个药
and so the doctor says,”You know, I’d like to give you a drug
帮你降低你的胆固醇 它是一种抑制素”
that will help youlower your cholesterol, a statin.”
可能你听说过这种抑制素 你知道他们是今天世界上被广泛运用的药
And you’ve probably heard of statins, you know that they’re amongthe most widely prescribed drugs in the world today,
你可能认识那些吃这些药的人
you probably even knowpeople who take them.
所以你在想”嗯!给我抑制素”
And so you’re thinking,”Yeah! Give me the statin.”
但是在这一点上有一个问题你应该问一下 有一个大多数医生不喜欢谈论
But there’s a questionyou should ask at this point, a statistic you should ask for
制药公司更不喜欢的问题
that most doctorsdon’t like talking about,
你应该问一下
and pharmaceutical companieslike talking about even less.
那就是需要治疗的人数
It’s for the number needed to treat.
现在 这是什么?需要治疗的人数?
Now, what is this, the NNT?
它是在一个人被帮助之前
It’s the number of peoplethat need to take a drug
需要吃药或者手术或者接受任何医疗过程
or undergo a surgeryor any medical procedure
的人的数量
before one person is helped.
你在想 到底这个惊人的数据是哪种呢?
And you’re thinking,what kind of crazy statistic is that?
正确数据应该只有一个
The number should be one.
我的医生不会给我开无用的药方
My doctor wouldn’t prescribesomething to me if it’s not going to help.
但是实际上 医疗实践用那种方法是行不通的
But actually, medical practicedoesn’t work that way.
这并不是医生的错 如果要是某人的错 也是像我一样的科学家的错
And it’s not the doctor’s fault, if it’s anybody’s fault,it’s the fault of scientists like me.
我们还没有搞清楚潜在的足够好的医疗机制
We haven’t figured outthe underlying mechanisms well enough.
但是葛兰素史克推测
But GlaxoSmithKline estimates
90%的药的作用只能在30%到50%的人身上发挥作用
that 90 percent of the drugs workin only 30 to 50 percent of the people.
所以被广泛应用的抑制素用在了多少需要治疗的人身上了呢
So the number needed to treatfor the most widely prescribed statin,
你认为是多少呢?
what do you suppose it is?
被救助之前有多少人必须吃这个药呢?
How many people have to take itbefore one person is helped?
300
300.
这个结果是根据杰罗姆和帕梅拉经过实践研究出来的
This is according to research by research practitionersJerome Groopman and Pamela Hartzband,
而且是经过彭博社独立认证的
independently confirmed by Bloomberg.com.
我自己浏览了一下这些数字
I ran through the numbers myself.
在心脏病 中风或者其他不好的事情发生之前
300 people have totake the drug for a year
一年中 有300人要吃这个药预防
before one heart attack, strokeor other adverse event is prevented.
现在你可能在想 “好吧 那降低我的胆固醇的几率就是三百分之一 “
Now you’re probably thinking, “Well, OK, one in 300 chanceof lowering my cholesterol.
为什么不吃呢 医生?给我药方吧”
Why not, doc? Give methe prescription anyway.”
但是在某种意义上你应该问另一个数据
But you should ask at this pointfor another statistic,
也就是 “告诉我对这个药产生副作用的人数”对吗?
and that is, “Tell meabout the side effects.” Right?
所以对于这种特殊的药 副作用会在5%的病人身上发生
So for this particular drug, the side effects occurin five percent of the patients.
这些药的副作用有的特别厉害-使肌肉和关节酸痛 使胃肠不舒服 –但是现在你在想 “5%
And they include terrible things — debilitating muscle and joint pain,gastrointestinal distress — but now you’re thinking, “Five percent,
不太可能发生在我身上 我继续吃我的药”
not very likelyit’s going to happen to me, I’ll still take the drug.”
但是等一分钟
But wait a minute.
记住在压力之下你的思维并不清晰
Remember under stressyou’re not thinking clearly.
所以思考一下你要如何提前预防吧
So think about how you’re goingto work through this ahead of time,
这样到那时候才不至于过于慌乱
so you don’t have to manufacturethe chain of reasoning on the spot.
300个人吃这个药 对吗?救助了一个人
300 people take the drug, right?One person’s helped,
300个人中的5%有副作用 也就是15个人
five percent of those 300have side effects, that’s 15 people.
被这种药伤害的几率
You’re 15 times more likelyto be harmed by the drug
是你被救助的几率的15倍
than you are to be helped by the drug.
现在 我不说你是否应该吃抑制素
Now, I’m not saying whether youshould take the statin or not.
我只是说你应该和你的医生谈谈
I’m just saying you should havethis conversation with your doctor.
医德上要求 你有部分知情权
Medical ethics requires it, it’s part of the principleof informed consent.
你有权利了解这种信息
You have the right to have accessto this kind of information
和医生讨论你是否想承担这种风险
to begin the conversation about whetheryou want to take the risks or not.
现在你可能在想我并不在这个被伤害的数字之内
Now you might be thinking I’ve pulled this numberout of the air for shock value,
但是事实上这是很典型的 需要治疗的人的数字
but in fact it’s rather typical,this number needed to treat.
对大部分50岁以上做外科手术的男人来说
For the most widely performed surgeryon men over the age of 50,
排除前列腺癌
removal of the prostate for cancer,
有49个人需要接受治疗
the number needed to treat is 49.
这是对的 49个人每个人都接受了治疗
That’s right, 49 surgeries are donefor every one person who’s helped.
这些病例中 副作用会发生在50%的人身上
And the side effects in that caseoccur in 50 percent of the patients.
这些副作用包括阳痿 勃起功能障碍
They include impotence,erectile dysfunction,
尿失禁 直肠痛 大便失禁
urinary incontinence, rectal tearing, fecal incontinence.
如果你比较幸运 你会是这50%的人其中之一
And if you’re lucky, and you’re oneof the 50 percent who has these,
他们只会持续一两年
they’ll only last for a year or two.
所以提前预防是指
So the idea of the pre-mortemis to think ahead of time
对你可能会遇到的问题提前做出思考
to the questionsthat you might be able to ask
这样遇事处理会更高效
that will push the conversation forward.
也不需要在麻烦之中临时发挥
You don’t want to have to manufactureall of this on the spot.
你也想像平时一样思考
And you also want to thinkabout things like quality of life.
你时常会面临一个选择 你是想要无痛苦的更短的生命
Because you have a choice oftentimes, do you I want a shorter lifethat’s pain-free,
还是会伴随着痛苦而结束的生命?
or a longer life that might havea great deal of pain towards the end?
这些是现在需要和你的家人和你爱的人讨论和思考的东西
These are things to talk aboutand think about now, with your family and your loved ones.
遇到压力时 你可能会改变你的想法
You might change your mindin the heat of the moment,
但是至少你用这种思想练习了
but at least you’re practicedwith this kind of thinking.
记住 我们的大脑在压力之下会释放皮质醇
Remember, our brain under stressreleases cortisol,
在那一刻会发生的事情之一就是一整套系统会关闭
and one of the thingsthat happens at that moment is a whole bunch on systems shut down.
因为这需要有一个渐进的过程
There’s an evolutionary reason for this.
和捕食者面对面 你不需要消化系统
Face-to-face with a predator,you don’t need your digestive system,
不需要生命力 不需要你的免疫系统
or your libido, or your immune system,
因为如果你在那些事情上消耗能量 那么你的反应就会变慢
because if you’re body is expendingmetabolism on those things and you don’t react quickly,
你可能会变成狮子的午餐 那都是无关紧要的
you might become the lion’s lunch,and then none of those things matter.
不幸的是 在那么多次压力之下你要理智地 进行 逻辑思考 而爬出窗户只是其中一件事
Unfortunately, one of the things that goes out the windowduring those times of stress is rational, logical thinking,
就像丹尼 ·卡内曼和他的同事展示的那样
as Danny Kahnemanand his colleagues have shown.
所以我们需要训练自己提前思考的能力
So we need to train ourselvesto think ahead
对于这些状况
to these kinds of situations.
我认为这里最重要的点是我门必须承认我们所有人都是不完美的
I think the important point hereis recognizing that all of us are flawed.
我们时不时地会失败
We all are going to fail now and then.
这个想法是指我们提前对那些可能出现的失败做出思考
The idea is to think aheadto what those failures might be,
把某些东西系统化 将帮助我们最小化损失
to put systems in placethat will help minimize the damage,
第一时间阻止坏事情的发生
or to prevent the bad thingsfrom happening in the first place.
回到蒙特利尔那个雪夜 当我从旅途中回来的时候
Getting back to thatsnowy night in Montreal, when I got back from my trip,
我让我的房东在门旁边安装了一个密码锁
I had my contractor installa combination lock next to the door,
在里面放了一把钥匙一个很容易记住的密码
with a key to the front door in it,an easy to remember combination.
我必须承认 我仍然有很多没有分类的邮件
And I have to admit, I still have piles of mailthat haven’t been sorted,
还有许多没有完成的邮件
and piles of emailsthat I haven’t gone through.
所以我现在的思想并不是特别的有条理 但是我把条理性作为一个循序渐进的过程 最后我一定可以做到
So I’m not completely organized, but I see organizationas a gradual process, and I’m getting there.
非常感谢
Thank you very much.
鼓掌
(Applause)

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视频概述

本视频主要告诉我们做事之前要先把所有可能出现的问题思考一下,找到方法来阻止坏结果的发生

听录译者

收集自网络

翻译译者

孙卫卫

审核员

w

视频来源

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8jPQjjsBbIc

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