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如何为下一次全球经济衰退做准备

How to prepare for the next global recession | The Economist

下次全球经济衰退 会有多糟?
We focused on this now because it’s been a decade
目前 我们聚焦于此是因为
since the global recession of 2008-2009
2008-2009经济衰退距今已有十年
and some interesting and and worrying vulnerabilities are also popping up at the moment
一些令人关注和担忧的隐患也在此时出现
1 下次衰退将何时到来?
In 2008 and 2009
在2008-2009年
The dominoes were really set up for
一场严重的经济和金融危机
quite a nasty financial and economic crisis
引发了多米诺骨牌效应
this time, the economic vulnerabilities aren’t quite as large
这次 经济隐患虽没有上次那么大
They’re large enough that we could see a slowdown in GDP growth
但已大到足以让我们看到GDP增速放缓
and a slowdown in trade and things of that nature
以及贸易量降低等类似现象
the real risk, is that our lack of preparedness
真正的危机是我们缺少准备
and the the lack of room for global cooperation
缺少全球合作的空间
Will turn what starts as kind of a minor downturn into something much larger
这将会在未来一两年内的某个时候
and much more difficult to deal with sometime the next year or two
把最初的小规模衰退变成更大更棘手的危机
2 它将从何处开始?
The last big global downturn began in the United States
上一次全球经济大衰退始于美国
with the collapse of the housing bubble in the financial sector there
金融业的房地产泡沫破裂
next time the trouble is much more likely to start elsewhere.
下一次危机更可能从别处开始
and perhaps in the emerging world
也许是新兴世界
Emerging economies are a much larger share of global output
新兴经济体在全球产出中所占份额
than they used to be
比过去大得多
They’ve also gone on something of a borrowing binge over the last ten years,
在过去十年里它们还进行了一场借贷狂潮
which means that they could be due for a reckoning
这意味着它们可能要面临清算
There are also reasons to be concerned about the euro area
也有很多理由关注欧元区
and in particular Italy
尤其意大利
which has an enormous public debt problem
它有严重的公共债务问题
and where markets have been feeling a bit jittery about their ability to pay that back
市场一直对其偿还债务的能力有点不安
and that could relaunch the euro area debt crisis that
这可能重新引发欧元区债务危机
we saw about a half decade ago
大约五年前我们已经见过了
3 世界对经济衰退做好准备了吗?
The tools government’s normally used to fight a recession
政府通常用来应对经济衰退的工具
won’t be available in the same way that they normally are the next time around
在下次不一定同样适用
Interest rates will be very low and
利率将非常低
so we normally rely on central banks to do interest rate cutting
我们通常依赖央行降息
to perk up spending perk up growth
来刺激消费使经济增长
and they’re not going to be able to do that.
但将来没法这么做因为利率已经很低
So pretty quickly they gonna have to turn to less tested methods
很快央行将不得不求助于不太成熟的方法
money printing to buy bonds
例如印钞购买债券
Quantitative easing was something that was used last time
还有上次用过的量化宽松政策
that’s going to be used again
以后还会用
But that works in a much more uncertain way
但这一做法的不确定性要大得多
and is much more politically contentious than some of the tools that are ordinarily used
而且在政治上比一些常用的工具更具争议性
4 障碍有哪些?
Within countries
在国家内部
the problem is that government is much more polarized
问题在于政府更加两极化
Across the world
在世界范围内
you have many more populist parties nationalist parties
有更多的民粹主义和民族主义政党
and it’s going to be very hard to reach the agreement.
达成协议将十分困难
That’s necessary to launch big spinning programs and things of that nature
所以开展大型游说等类似性质项目是必需的
then you also have disagreements across countries
而且在不同国家之间也有分歧
Which means that it’s much more likely you have
这意味着各国在应对下次衰退时
Contentious policies tariffs that go up currency wars things of that nature
更有可能制定有争议性
as countries struggle to deal with the next downturn
会引发货币战争等事件的关税政策
5 政府应该做什么?
Ideally governments would be taking some steps right now
理想情况下 政府现在应该采取一些措施
to get ready for the next recession
从而为下次经济衰退做准备
They should be changing their central bank policy targets
它们应该改变央行政策目标
What we’ve learned is that
我们了解到的是
a low inflation target doesn’t give central bank’s enough room
在利率降至零之前 低通胀目标
to fight recessions before interest rates fall to zero
无法给央行足够空间来应对衰退
They should also be getting their budgets ready
政府也应该做好预算
which means preparing to include measures that will increase spending automatically
具体是指在未来经济疲软时
when the economy weakens in the future
将自动增加支出的措施纳入准备
so that they don’t have to have fights in Parliament
这样当经济衰退真的来临时
about whether or not to expand spending when the time comes
就不必在议会中争论是否要扩大支出
but then most important of all I think
但我认为最重要的是
Governments need to coordinate their responses with each other
政府需要相互协调其应对措施
that makes it much more likely that we don’t enter a scenario like we did in the 1930s
从而免于重蹈20世纪30年代的覆辙
When tariff barriers went up
那时候关税壁垒上升
when there were currency wars and competitive devaluations
货币战争和竞争性贬值爆发
and when ultimately that led to some
最终导致了一些
pretty significant and nasty geopolitical tension
相当严重且恶劣的地缘政治紧张局势

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视频概述

由于金融市场压力、贸易疲软和减贫速度放缓,世界经济增长并不乐观。本视频主要分析了下一次经济衰退发生的时间、地点、应对方法、主要障碍并为政策制定者提供经验教训和可行方案。趁尚有可能,世界现在应该开始为下一次衰退做准备了!

听录译者

收集自网络

翻译译者

Yolo

审核员

审核员LJ

视频来源

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rD7KNVzkLPw

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