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如何战胜竞争对手——从足球中借鉴经验

How to Outthink Your Competition -- with a Lesson from Sports | Rasmus Ankersen | TED

Do you remember this one?
记得这个吗?
[Laughter]
[笑声]
It’s a Nokia 3310.
诺基亚3310
Once recognized as the greatest phone ever produced.
曾被公认为有史以来最伟大的手机
I guess most of you in this room owned one, didn’t you?
我想在座的大多数人都拥有过一部3310 对吧?
Please raise your hand if you owned a 3310.
用过的请举手
Wow, so almost 100 percent market share here.
哇 它几乎占据了这里的全部市场份额
[Laughter]
[笑声]
So you’ll remember that it never ran out of battery.
你不会忘记它强大的电池续航力
[Laughter]
[笑声]
You could play Snake on it.
你能用它玩贪吃蛇
[Laughter]
[笑声]
It was world-famous for being the indestructible phone.
作为一部坚不可摧的手机 3310享誉世界
So in the mobile industry,
在移动手机领域
the saying used to go that if someone drops an iPhone,
有一种说法 如果有人摔了部iPhone
the screen breaks.
手机屏会碎
If someone drops a Nokia 3310,
而如果有人摔了部诺基亚3310
the floor breaks.
地板会裂
It was unbelievably solid.
可见其坚固度多么令人难以置信
The 3310 embodied exactly what Nokia stood for as a brand:
3310正体现了诺基亚所代表的品牌价值:
resilience, quality and innovation.
坚韧 质量与创新
It was products like this one
正是这样的产品
that turned Nokia into one of the most successful companies on the planet.
使诺基亚成为全世界最成功的公司之一
But as you will also remember,
但正如你所记得的
there is another and a more tragic side to this story.
这个故事还有更可悲的另一面
Because today, the 3310
因为今天 3310
rests in peace at the gadget’s graveyard.
已躺在报废的工具堆中 无人问津
It’s become a symbol of the collapse of Nokia,
这象征了诺基亚的崩溃
a company that went from 50 percent global market share
在不到五年的时间里 诺基亚的全球市场份额
to three percent in less than five years.
从50%降到了3%
And it made me think that,
这让我想到
while we talk a lot about how an organization achieves success,
当我们谈论了很多某一机构取得成功的方法时
maybe we don’t talk enough about the psychological challenges
也许我们没有对随之而来的心理挑战
that often follow success.
进行足够的探讨
Because if you think about it,
因为仔细想想
almost every industry has its own Nokia story.
几乎每个行业都有自己的“诺基亚之殇”
Companies that once dominated their industry
那些曾在行业中占主导地位的公司
but then somehow completely lost the mojo.
后来不知何故彻底丧失了魔力
They all leave us with that million dollar question.
这些都给我们留下了一个重要而难解的问题
Why do successful companies actually fail?
为什么成功的公司居然失败了?
And what could they have done to stay ahead of the pack?
他们能做什么来保持行业领先?
So I’m going to try and answer that question today,
今天 我将尝试回答这个问题
not by using traditional management thinking
不是用传统的管理思维
but by using an idea from football analytics,
而是用足球分析中的一个想法
which I believe explains why many successful companies
我认为这解释了为什么很多成功的公司
so often hesitate to change until it’s too late.
总在改变时犹豫不决 直到一切为时已晚
Before I start, I need to ask a very important question.
开始之前 我要问一个很重要的问题
Do we have any Newcastle United supporters in the room?
在座的有纽卡斯尔联队的球迷吗?
Audience: Yeah!
观众:有!
Yeah, there’s a couple there.
是的 那儿有一对
So, guys, I’m just going to warn you,
伙计们 我只想提醒你们
the next 10 minutes will be painful.
接下来的10分钟不会好过
Ok, I know the last 25 years have been painful,
好吧 我知道过去25年一直不好过
but don’t take this personally.
但别把它太当回事儿
This is the stadium of Newcastle United,
这是纽卡斯尔联队的体育场
St James’ Park.
圣詹姆斯公园
Every other week, 50,000 die-hard supporters
每隔一周 就有5万名铁杆球迷
flock to the stadium to watch their team play.
涌向体育场观看球队比赛
And instinctively, Newcastle United has all the building blocks
纽卡斯尔联队天然地拥有成为
to become a really successful football club.
一个成功足球俱乐部所需的全部基础
They got a billionaire businessman owner,
他们的老板是一位亿万富商
they got a fan base most other clubs would die for.
他们有很多其他俱乐部所渴望的球迷基础
But despite all that,
但尽管如此
Newcastle is also known as the team
纽卡斯尔也被公认为
that never really fulfilled its potential.
一支从未真正发挥过潜力的球队
But then a little bit more than five years ago, in 2012,
但在五年多前 也就是2012年
the fortune seems to change for Newcastle
纽卡斯尔的命运似乎发生了改变
because they sensationally finished fifth in the English Premier League,
因为他们在全球最高级别的英超联赛中
the strongest league in the world.
斩获第五名 引起了轰动
That was an amazing achievement.
这一成绩令人惊叹
All the experts predicted Newcastle to be battling avoid relegation.
所有专家都预测纽卡斯尔将为保级而战
Now they were fifth.
而现在他们排名第五
Inside Newcastle,
在联队内部
the excitement was bubbling too.
队员的兴奋之情也在沸腾着
The management team was convinced this is the start of a new era
管理团队确信这是纽卡斯尔足球俱乐部史上
in the football club’s history.
一个新时代的开始
So they decided to reward the head coach and his whole coaching staff
因此他们决定奖励主教练和他的整个教练团队
a historic-long, unbreakable eight-year contract.
一份长达八年的固定合约
And they really tried to do everything they could
为了在下一赛季保持球队的团结
to keep the squad together for the following season,
他们的确用尽了办法
because that’s how successful organizations
因为成功的机构就该这么思考问题
are supposed to think, right?
对吧?
The following season this happened.
下一赛季 出现了这样的情况
Newcastle almost relegated.
纽卡斯尔差点降级
They finished 16th,
他们最终排名第十六
and no one had a clue what was going on.
没有人知道发生了什么
Because they had the same players,
因为他们有相同的球员
they had the same coaching staff,
相同的教练团队
they even played in the same stadiums.
甚至在相同的体育场比赛
I mean, nothing’s changed.
我的意思是 一切都没变
How could a largely unchanged team
一支基本上原封不动的球队
go from fifth to 16th
怎么会在不到12个月内
in less than 12 months?
从第五名掉到第十六名?
I’m going to try and answer that question.
我要试着回答这个问题
But first, I’m going to give you a little bit of background.
但首先 我要给你补充一点背景知识
Because in football, there’s a good old expression
因为在足球运动中
that’s frequently used by coaches,
教练 球员 评论员和专家
players, commentators, experts.
常会提到一句很好用的老话
It goes like this:
它是这样说的:
The league table never lies!
排行榜从不说谎!
It kind of assumes that once the last game of a season is played,
这有点像是说 一旦本赛季的最后一场比赛结束
justice prevails.
结果会是公平的
The team that finishes top of the table is the best-performing team,
最终荣登榜首的球队是表现最好的球队
and the teams that relegate are the worst-performing teams.
而降级的球队是表现最差的球队
At the end of the day, everyone gets what they deserve.
到最后 每个人都得到了应有的回报
It’s not that simple, actually.
其实事情并没有那么简单
And let me explain why.
让我来解释下原因
Please meet Matthew Benham.
请允许我介绍马修·本汉姆
He’s a gambler.
他是个赌徒
He convinced me the brightest guys in football
他让我相信足球界最聪明的人
they don’t work for the football clubs.
不会为足球俱乐部踢球
They work in the gambling industry.
而是把踢球当作赌博
And I’m not talking about the amateur gambler,
我所说的并不是业余赌徒
the guy that is placing a bet every Saturday morning
不是那些每周六早上都会下注
to trigger his weekly rush of adrenaline.
来追求肾上腺素飙升感的赌徒
I’m talking about the pros,
我说的是专业赌徒
the guys that are using sophisticated mathematical models to place the bets.
那些靠复杂的数学模型来下注的人
That’s the brightest guys, and Matthew is one of them.
这才是最聪明的人 而马修就是其中之一
He’s an Oxford graduate in physics
他是牛津大学物理学专业毕业生
that decided to set up his own betting syndicate in North London,
他决定在北伦敦成立自己的博彩集团
basically an office full of PhD statisticians
基本上就是间办公室
calculating the probabilities for the outcome of football games.
里面全是计算足球比赛结果概率的统计学博士
That has made him a rich man.
这让他变得很有钱
So rich, he decided to buy the football club
有钱到他决心买下自己从十几岁起
he supported since he was a teenager:
就一直支持的足球俱乐部:
Brentford in West London.
伦敦西部的布伦特福德
And that’s where I met him five years ago,
五年前就在那儿 在位于泽西路的
at Jersey Road, the training ground of Brentford.
俱乐部训练场上 我遇到了他
At the time we met, Brentford was third in League One,
我们相遇时 布伦特福德在英甲排名第三
which is the third tier of English football.
英甲是英国第三级别的足球联赛
There was only five games remaining of the season,
本赛季只剩五场比赛
and Brentford was pushing for a promotion.
而布伦特福德正在争取晋级
So I said to Matthew,
于是我对马修说:
“What do you think?
“你怎么想?
Are you going to promote this season and what does your gut feel say?”
你的球队会在本赛季晋级吗?直觉想法是什么?”
He gave me an answer I didn’t quite expect.
他给了我一个颇为意外的答案
It was not an answer full of excitement.
这不是一个令人满怀兴奋的答案
The guy just looked at me and then he said, very dry,
这家伙看着我 然后干巴巴地说:
“Well, at the moment there’s a 42 percent chance we’ll promote.”
“嗯 目前我们有42%的机会晋级”
That comment made me realize that I met someone
这句话让我意识到 与我曾见过的人不同
who thought completely different about the game than I ever met before.
我遇到了一个对比赛持完全不同看法的人
Over the next couple of months,
随后几个月里
Matthew and I started to meet regularly to exchange ideas
马修和我开始定期会面
about how you could run a football club differently.
就如何以不同方式经营足球俱乐部交换意见
In particular,
特别是
how would it be possible to break the correlation
如何才能打破看似存在于
between spending and results that seems to exist?
支出与结果之间的相关性?
Is it possible to not outspend but outthink the competition
使用赌徒的工具 数据和分析
by using the weapons of a gambler, data and analytics?
是否有可能在策略上 而非支出上超过竞争对手?
One day we had lunch at a restaurant together
一天 我们在伦敦苏豪区的一家餐厅
in Soho in London,
一起吃午饭
and Matthew said to me
马修对我说
he’d been looking to buy another football club.
他一直在考虑再买一家足球俱乐部
And I immediately responded, “Why don’t you take a look at the club
我立马回应道“你为什么不看看
I supported when I was a teenager?”
我十几岁时支持的俱乐部?”
FC Midtjylland,
中日德兰
based in the western rural Denmark, in the middle of nowhere.
其总部位于丹麦西部一个偏僻的农村
Midtjylland was almost broke at the time,
中日德兰当时几近破产
so it was a perfect place to start testing radical ideas.
正是买下它开始测试激进想法的好时机
A week later, we flew to Denmark, and we had a look at the club.
一周后我们飞往丹麦 考察了俱乐部
Eventually, he decided to buy the club.
最终他决定买下这个俱乐部
And he made me the chairman of the club,
他让我当俱乐部主席
and we’ve run the club together for the past four years.
过去的四年里 我们共同经营俱乐部
In the first season,
第一个赛季
we won the first championship in the club’s history,
我们斩获了俱乐部史上首个冠军
and a year later we became world-famous
一年后 又因在欧联杯上
because we beat the mighty Manchester United
击败了强大的曼联
in the Europa League.
而闻名世界
Unfortunately, in the UK, that’s more perceived
遗憾的是在英国 人们更多地认为
as the absolute embarrassment of Manchester United
这毫无疑问是曼联的窘境
than the genius of Midtjylland,
而非中日德兰更胜一筹
but we will live with that.
但我们会接受这一点
[Laughter]
[笑声]
Suddenly, media, newspapers, TV stations from all the world
突然间 世界各地的媒体 报纸和电视台
were flying to western Denmark to learn more about this little club
纷纷前往丹麦西部 更深入地去了解这家
no one can pronounce the name of,
无人能念对名字的小俱乐部
which is run by an English gambler
这家俱乐部由一名英国赌徒经营
using data and analytics to find a competitive edge.
利用数据和分析来寻找竞争优势
So here’s the thing.
问题在于
If you want to understand how a gambler thinks,
如果你想了解赌徒的想法
there’s one concept you must get, it’s this:
你必须了解一个概念 那就是:
The league table always lies!
排行榜一直在说谎!
Why is a gambler saying that?
为什么赌徒会这么说?
Because he understands football is a very random game.
因为他知道足球是一种随机性很高的比赛
It’s a much more random game than basketball, for example.
例如与篮球比赛相比 足球的随机性更高
Why is that?
为什么会这样?
Because football is a low-scoring sport.
因为足球比赛得分很低
There’s not a lot of goals in football.
足球比赛中进球得分并不多
No, the average number of goals in a football game is 2.8.
是的 一场足球比赛的平均得分为2.8
The average number of goals in a basketball games is above 200.
而一场篮球比赛的平均得分超过200
Here’s the principle.
原则是
The fewer goals there is in a sport,
一项运动的得分越少
the more impact random events have.
随机事件的影响就越大
Random events like the ball getting deflected and spins into the net,
随机事件 比如球变向急转入网
or the referee making a wrong call in the last minute of the game.
或裁判在比赛最后一分钟做出错误判罚
Ultimately, this means that the best team wins less often in football,
最终 这意味着最好的球队在足球这一低得分运动中
a low scoring-sport,
获胜的次数
than in a high-scoring sport like basketball.
少于篮球这一高得分运动
And that’s why the league table lies.
这就是为什么排行榜会说谎
It lies more after 10 games than after 20 games.
10场比赛得出的结果比20场更不可靠
But even 38 games, that is a full season,
而即便是38场比赛 即一个完整的赛季
38 games is a very small sample size.
也只是一个很小的样本量
You know, not enough to strip out the randomness from the equation.
还不足以从等式中排除随机性
So a gambler is in the business of making predictions
因此 赌徒的工作是做出预测
and backing those predictions with his bets.
并用下注支持这些预测
And when he decides to back a team and place a bet,
当他决定下注支持一支球队时
he doesn’t look at where that team is in the league table.
他不会考虑这支球队在联赛中的排位
He looks at underlying performance indicators
而是关注更具预测价值的
that have more predictive value,
潜在绩效指标
tells him more about where that team is likely to go in the future
这让他能更好地了解球队未来的走向
than its current league table position.
而不是当前的联赛排名
So let’s go back to Newcastle’s glory season
让我们回到纽卡斯尔荣登第五的
when they finished fifth,
辉煌赛季
and revisit that through the lens of a gambler.
从赌徒的视角重新审视这一点
Because whereas experts in the game
因为尽管比赛中的专家们
were overly impressed by Newcastle’s performance,
对纽卡斯尔的表现印象深刻
the gamblers were very skeptical.
但赌徒们却持高度怀疑的态度
Their analysis showed that this was a fragile bubble
他们的分析表明 这是一个随时可能破裂的
that could burst any time.
脆弱的泡沫
Here’s why.
原因在于
One of the statistics a gambler trusts a lot
赌徒十分信赖的统计数据之一
is the statistic called goal difference.
是所谓的净胜球数
It’s the difference between the number of goals a team scores
即一支球队的进球数
versus the number of goals the opponent scores.
与对手球队进球数之差
It’s a very reliable indicator for a team’s strength.
这是一个非常可靠的球队实力指标
So let’s look at that.
所以看一下这组数据
Newcastle finished fifth
纽卡斯尔排名第五
with a total shot differential of plus-five.
总净胜球数为正5
A long way behind the four top teams.
远低于前四名的球队
And if you look at that column, it’s by far the lowest number.
若你看这一栏 它的数据是其中最低的
This indicates what a gambler calls
净胜球数意味着(球队拥有)赌徒所说的
an extremely effective goal distribution.
极有效的进球分布
All goals in football are important.
足球比赛的进球都很重要
Not all goals are equally important.
但并不是所有进球都同等重要
So here’s an example.
下面是一个例子
Let’s say Newcastle scores two goals over two games
假设纽卡斯尔在两场比赛中踢进两球
and the opponent scores six goals.
对手踢进六球
Newcastle will be better off winning 1-0 in the first game,
纽卡斯尔在第一场比赛中以1-0获胜
losing 6-1 in the second,
第二场比赛以6-1失利
rather than losing twice 3-1.
会比两场比赛均以3-1失利更好
Same goal difference but different number of points.
两者净胜球数相同 但积分不同
So if a team is able to produce,
因此 如果一支球队在整个赛季中
concede a number of goals throughout the season,
进了很多球 也丢了很多球
how effective those scores follow the goal distribution,
那么得分的有效性将取决于进球分布
there’s a big degree of randomness to that.
这就有很大的随机性
And if you break down Newcastle’s 65 points this season,
如果分析纽卡斯尔本赛季所得的65分
you’ll see that it was driven by a very effective goal distribution:
你会发现这是由十分有效的进球分布带来的:
eight wins with one goal
8场比赛以1球取胜
and three major losses with more than three goals.
3场重大失利 丢了3球以上
It’s very unlikely statistically
从统计角度看 在净胜5球的情况下
to be able to repeat 65 points with a plus five goal difference.
取得65分基本没有可能
Another statistic a gambler trusts
赌徒相信的另一个统计数据
is something called shot differential:
叫做射门差:
the difference between the number of shots a team produces
即一支球队的射门数
versus the number of shots the opponent produces.
与对手的射门数之差
It’s statistically very well-documented in football
统计数据充分表明 在足球比赛中
that the best team over time produces more shots than the worst teams.
最好的球队比最差的球队射门次数更多
So let’s have a look at that.
请看这里
And as you can see,
正如你所见
Newcastle finished fifth
纽卡斯尔排名第五
with a total shot differential of -1.4.
总射门差为负1.4
Clearly they don’t belong in this company.
显然他们(的射门数)不属于同一梯队
This indicates unsustainably high conversion rate.
这表明高转化率无法维持下去
When you have a positive goal difference
当呈负数的射门差
driven by a negative shot differential,
带来呈正数的净胜球数
it indicates unsustainably high conversion rates.
这表明高转换率将无法维持下去
How many of those shots were converted to goals?
有多少次射门转化为进球得分?
And Newcastle had especially one player this season
本赛季中 纽卡斯尔有一名球员表现突出
who stood out, Cisse, their top scorer.
那就是他们的头号射手西塞
A key component of their success.
这是他们成功的关键因素
He converted 33 percent of his shots.
西塞的射门成功率为33%
Ladies and gentlemen, that’s a freaky number.
女士们先生们 这是一个反常的数字
Here is how I would put it.
我来打个比方
Newcastle’s fifth place
纽卡斯尔排名第五
is the equivalent of a publicly traded company
相当于一家上市公司
having a very high share price
股价很高
and a very low customer satisfaction at the same time.
同时客户满意度却很低
You can have that for one year,
某一年你能获得这样的成绩
but you can’t maintain that over time.
但不能一直维持下去
Here’s a visualization of how a gambler perceived the situation.
这就是赌徒看待这一情况的形象表述
The black line shows the number of points Newcastle achieved
黑线代表纽卡斯尔在这两个赛季中
throughout those two seasons
分列第五和第十六时
when they were fifth and when there were 16th.
取得的分数
The red line is the underlying performance,
红线是它的基础表现
what a gambler calls expected points.
赌徒称之为预期分数
So as you can see,
所以 如你所见
Newcastle got a lot more points in the first season
纽卡斯尔在第一个赛季
when they finished fifth,
排名第五名时
than the underlying performance justified.
得分远高于其合理的基础表现
Actually, Newcastle performed almost the same way in those two seasons.
事实上 纽卡斯尔在这两个赛季的表现几乎相同
They just got less lucky.
他们只是没那么幸运了
And this reframes the original question.
这重新定义了最初的问题
Because why did Newcastle’s management team
纽卡斯尔的管理团队因何
not see this downturn coming?
未能预见球队的表现将走下坡路?
Why did they decide to reward the head coach with a historic-long,
当成绩明显无法维持下去时
unbreakable contract
又为何决定
when the results were clearly unsustainable?
用一份长期的固定合约来犒赏主教练?
I believe that Newcastle was blinded
我认为纽卡斯尔
by one of the most common management delusions,
被一种最常见的管理错觉蒙蔽了双眼
what psychologists call outcome bias,
心理学家称之为结果偏见
the assumption that good results
即假设
are always the consequence of good decisions
良好的决策和卓越的表现
and superior performance.
总会带来不错的结果
Or, let’s put it in another way:
换言之:
Success turns luck into genius.
成功让运气变成天赋
And this is where the message becomes about much more
这一说法不仅仅适用于
than just football analytics, right?
足球分析 不是吗?
Because when an organization fails,
因为当某个机构失败时
it becomes very natural for us to dig for reasons,
我们会很自然地去深究原因
to ask the tough questions.
去问尖锐的问题
Why did we fail?
我们为什么会失败?
How can we do things better?
怎样才能做得更好?
But when we are successful, we don’t ask those questions.
而当我们成功时 我们不会问这些问题
We tend to just cruise on blinded by outcome bias.
我们往往因结果偏见而盲目前行
We expect results to continue automatically.
期望好的结果会自动延续下去
We don’t dig into them and ask,
我们不会深究:
“What was actually the underlying reason for the success?”
“成功的根本原因到底是什么?”
Was it because of the oil price?
是因为油价?
Was it because of good leadership
是因为良好的领导力
or because of exceptional market conditions?
还是因为特殊的市场条件?
How many companies do you think confuse good leadership
你觉得有多少公司将良好的领导力
with good market conditions?
与良好的市场条件混为一谈?
Here’s the thing.
问题在于
Successful organizations
成功的机构
should think more like a good gambler.
更应该像好的赌徒一样思考问题
Because a good gambler has trained his brain
因为好的赌徒训练了自己的大脑
to resist the human tendency
去抵抗人类的偏好
to assume that good outcomes always mean that someone acted brilliantly.
认为好的结果总意味着某人表现出色
A good gambler treats success with the same skepticism
好的赌徒对待成功和对待失败一样
as he treats failure.
持怀疑态度
And this is what successful organizations should do too,
成功的机构若想保持自身的影响力
if they want to stay relevant:
也应该这么做:
ask themselves the questions of a gambler.
问自己一个赌徒会问的问题
Why were we actually successful?
为什么我们会成功?
How do we separate luck from skill?
如何区分运气与技术?
Is it possible that our league table sometimes lied too?
有没有可能我们的排行榜有时也说谎了?
Thank you very much.
非常感谢

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译制信息
视频概述

新一届世界杯已拉开帷幕,让我们跟随RA,一起从足球的角度来探讨如何战胜竞争对手。

听录译者

收集自网络

翻译译者

Kris

审核员

审核员MZM

视频来源

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FaLBcSMVVuU

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