塔里·夏洛特 行为神经学家
So we all have some behaviors that we would like to change about ourselves.
我们都有一些想要改变的自身行为
And we certainly all want to help someone else
我们肯定都想以一种积极方式
change their behavior in a positive way.
帮助别人改变他们的行为
So, maybe it’s your kids, your spouse, your colleagues.
也许是你的小孩 你的配偶 你的同事
So I want to share some new researches with you
在此 我想跟大家分享一些新的研究
that I think reveals something really important
关于是什么让人们改变自身的行为
about what gets people to change their behavior.
我认为这些研究揭示了一些非常重要的东西
But before I do that, let’s zoom in on one strategy
但在开始之前 我们先来看一个
that I think you probably use a lot.
你可能用过很多次的策略
So,let’s say you’re trying to stop yourself from snacking.
假如你正在尝试戒掉零食
what do you tell yourself?
你会怎样说服自己？
well, most people’s inner monologue will say
大多数人的内心独白是
Beware, you’ll be fat
当心 你会长胖的
And if this was your kid,
如果这是你的孩子
you would probably tell him that smoking kills
你可能会告诉他 吸烟有害健康
and by the way, he’s in big big trouble
顺便说一句 他有大麻烦了
So what we’re trying to do here is
所以 我们试图要做的是
we’re trying to scare ourselves and others into changing their behavior.
我们试图恐吓自己和他人来改变他们的行为
And it’s not just us.
不只有我们这样做
Warnings and threats are really common in health campaigns, in policy.
警告和威胁在健康运动和政策中十分普遍
It’s because we all share this deep-rooted belief
因为我们都持有这种根深蒂固的观念
that if you threaten people,
如果你威胁他人
if fear is induced it will get them to act.
催生出恐惧 这会让他们行动起来
And it seems like a really reasonable assumption,
这似乎是一个十分合理的假设
Except for the fact that the science shows
但是科学却表明
that warnings have very limited impact on behavior
警告对行为的影响非常有限
so, graphic images on cigarette packets for example do not deter smokers from smoking,
例如 烟盒上的图片并不能阻止吸烟者吸烟
and one study found that after looking at those images
一项研究发现 看完那些图片后
quitting actually became a lower priority for smokers.
戒烟实际上成了吸烟者的次优选择
I’m not saying that warnings and threats never work,
我并不是说警告和威胁从不起作用
but what I’m saying is, on average,
但我要说的是 总体来讲
they seem to have a very limited impact.
它们的效果似乎十分有限
And so, the question is: why?
那么问题来了：为什么？
Why are we resistant to warnings?
为什么我们会抵触警告？
Well,if you think about animals,
你可以想象一下动物的行为
when you induce fear in an animal,
当你催生出动物的恐惧
the most common response you will see is freezing or fleeing
动物最常见的反应是僵住不动 或者逃跑
fighting not as much
反抗则不多见
And so, humans are the same.
因此 人类也是一样
So if something scares us,
如果有东西吓到我们
we tend to shut down and we try to eliminate the negative feelings
我们倾向于封闭自我 并试着消除负面情绪
we might use rationalizations.
我们可能会用合理化思想
For example, you might tell yourself:
例如 你可能会告诉自己
“My grandpa smoked. He lived to be 90.
“我爷爷抽烟 他活到了90岁
So, I have really good genes and absolutely nothing to worry about.
所以我有着良好的基因 根本不需要担心”
And this process can actually make you feel more resilient than you did before
这个过程实际上会让你比之前更加抗拒做出改变
which is why warnings sometimes have this boomerang effect.
这就是为什么警告有时会产生反噬效应
In other times, we simply put our head in the ground.
其他时候 我们只是把头埋到地里
Take the stock market for example.
以股票市场为例
Do you know when people pull their head out of the ground to look at their accounts —
你知道人们什么时候会把头拔出来去查看他们的账户吗？
not to make a transaction
不是为了做交易
just to log in to check their account
仅仅是登录查看他们的账户
So, what you’re seeing here, in black,
图表中用黑色表示的部分
is the S&P 500 over two years,
是两年多时间的标普500指数
and in gray is a number of times that people logged in to their account just to check.
灰色部分是人们登陆账户进行查看的次数
And this is data from Karlsson, Loewenstein & Seppi,
这份数据来自于Karlsson Loewenstein & Seppi
it’s control for all the obvious confounds.
它控制着所有明显相互违背的数据
So what do we see
所以你发现了吗？
So when the market is high people log in all the time,
当市场行情处于高位时 人们会一直登录
because positive information makes you feel good,
因为积极信息会让你感觉良好
so you seek it out.
你会主动寻求积极信息
And when the market is low people avoid logging in,
当市场低迷时 人们就会避免登录
because negative information makes us feel bad,
因为负面信息让我们感觉糟糕
so we try to avoid it altogether.
所以我们会试着避开它
And all this is true
只要能够合理规避掉负面信息
as long as bad information can reasonably be avoided.
事实就会符合这样的数据曲线
So what you don’t see here is what happened a few months later
所以你在这里看不到几个月后发生的事情
in the financial collapse of 2008
在2008年金融危机期间
when the market went drastically down
市场行情急剧下跌
and that was when people started logging in frantically
人们这才又开始疯狂地登录股票账户
but it was a bit too late.
但为时已晚
So you can think about it like this it’s not just finance
所以你可以这么认为 不仅是金融
In many different parts of our life,
生活中我们总是对警告视而不见
we have warning signs and bad behaviors now.
这里有警告（左图）和不良行为（右图）
And they could potentially lead to all these bad outcomes later,
它们可能会引发之后所有的不好结果
but not necessarily so,
但也不总是如此
because there are different roads from your present to your future,right?
因为从现在到将来有着许多不同的可能 对吧？
It can go this way it can go that way
它既可以走这一条路 也可以走那一条路
And as time passes,
随着时间流逝
you gather more and more information about where the wind is blowing.
你会收集到越来越多风往哪吹的信息
And at any point, you can intervene
在任何时候 你都可以进行干预
and you could potentially change the outcome,
你可能会改变结果
but that takes energy
但这需要耗费精力
and you might tell yourself:
你可能会告诉自己：
“well,what’s the point about worrying about something that might happen?
“担心未来可能发生的事情有什么意义呢？”
It might not happen.
也许它不会发生
Until we reach this point, at which time you do jump into action,
除非我们意识到自己必须立刻行动
but sometimes it’s a little bit too late.
但有时候已经有点太晚了
so we wanted to know, in my lab
所以我的实验想探究
what type of information does leak into people.
哪种类型的信息会使人们意识到 该行动了
so we conducted an experiment where we asked approximately 100 people
因此 我们开展了一项实验 让大约100个人
to estimate the likelihood of 80 different negative events
来评估未来可能发生在他们身上
that might happen to them in the future
80个不同负面事项的可能性
So for example, I might ask you:
例如 我可能会问你：
“What is the likelihood that you’ll suffer hearing loss in your future?”
“你将来失聪的可能性是多少？”
And let’s say you think it’s about 50%
假设你认为是50%
Then I give you the opinion of two different experts.
随后我会给你两位不同专家的意见
So expert A tells you: “You know,
专家A会告诉你：“你知道的
for someone like you, I think is only 40%.”
我认为你失聪可能性只有40%”
So they give you a rosier view of your future.
所以他们给了你一个关于未来的乐观看法
Expert B says: “You know,
专家B则说：“你知道的
for someone like you, I actually think it’s about 60%.”
我认为你失聪的可能性大概有60%”
It’s worse. So they give you a bleaker view of your future.
情况变糟了 他们给了你一个关于未来的悲观看法
What should you do?
你该怎么办？
Well, you shouldn’t change your beliefs, right?
你不应该改变自己的想法 对吗？
Wrong.
错！
What we find is that people tend to
我们发现人们倾向于
change their beliefs towards a more desirable opinion.
为更符合心意的意见而改变他们的想法
In other words, people listen to the positive information.
换言之 人们倾向于听取积极信息
Now, this study was conducted on college students
这项研究是在大学生中开展的
so you might say:
所以你可能会说：
“well, college students are delusional, right?” we all know that
“大学生都有妄想症 不是吗？” 我们都知道
And surely, as we grow older, we grow wiser.
当然 随着年岁的增长 我们变得更明智
So we said:”OK, let’s test that.
所以我们说：“行吧 我们来测试一下
Does this really generalize？
看看这个现象是否具有普适性？
Does it generalize to your kid？ Does it generalize to your parent？
是否适用于你的孩子？是否适用于你的父母？
Does it generalize to your spouse?”
是否适用于你的配偶？”
And so, we tested people from the age of 10 until the age of 80,
因此 我们测试了10岁到80岁的人群
And the answer was yes.
答案是肯定的
In all these age groups,
在所有的年龄组别中
people take in information they want to hear
人们接受他们想要听到的信息
— like someone telling you: “you’re more attractive than you thought.”
比如某人告诉你：“你比想象中更具魅力”
than information that they don’t want to hear.
而不是那些他们不想听到的信息
And the ability to learn from good news
从好消息中学习的能力
It remained quite stable throughout the life span,
在整个生命周期中都保持稳定
but the ability to learn from bad news,
但从坏消息中学习的能力
that changes as you age.
会随着年龄的增长而变化
So what we found was that kids and teenagers
我们发现小孩和青少年
they were the worst at learning from bad news,
最不善于从坏消息中学习
and the ability became better and better as people aged.
随着人们年龄的增长 学习能力变得越来越强
But then, around the age of 40, around midlife,
但在40岁左右 也就是中年时期
it started deteriorating again.
学习能力开始下降
So what this means is that the most vulnerable populations,
这就意味着最容易受伤的人群
kids and teenagers on the one hand,
一方面是小孩和青少年
and the elderly on the other hand,
另一方面则是老年人
they’re the least likely to accurately learn from warnings.
他们最不可能准确地从警告中学习
But what you can see here is that it doesn’t matter what age you are.
但在这里你能看到 你的年龄并不重要
You can be 20, 30, 40, 50 or 60,
你可以是20 30 40 50或者60岁
everyone takes in information they want to hear
每个人都接受他们想要听到的信息
more than information that they don’t.
而不是那些他们不想听到的
And so we end up with a view like this of ourselves.
因此 我们最终对自己形成这样一种看法
And our mistake as teachers, as mentors, as employers
我们作为老师 导师和雇主 常犯的错误在于
is that instead of working with this positive image that people so effortfully maintain
不是从人们努力维持的正面形象着手
we try and put a clear mirror in front of them.
我们尝试在他们面前放一面清晰的镜子
We tell them: “You know, the image is just going to get worse and worse and worse.
我们告诉他们：“你再这样下去 一切只会变得越来越糟”
And it doesn’t work.
这种方法根本没用
It doesn’t work because the brain will frantically try to distort the image
这方法没用是因为大脑会疯狂的扭曲形象
using Photoshop and fancy lenses,
通过使用Photoshop和好看的镜头
until it gets the image it’s happy with.
直到他们变成自己满意的模样
But what would happen if we went along with how our brain works and not against it?
但如果我们跟随大脑运转 不去违背它 会发生什么？
Take handwashing, for example.
以洗手为例
So we all know that handwashing is the number one way to prevent the spread of disease,
众所周知 洗手是预防疾病传播的最佳方法
and this is really important in hospitals.
这在医院里尤为重要
So in a hospital, here in the United States
在美国的一家医院里
a camera was installed to see
研究人员安装了一个摄像头来观测
how often medical staff, do in fact sanitize their hands
医护人员在进入病房前后
before and after entering a patient’s room.
进行手部灭菌的频次
Now the medical staff knew a camera was installed.
医护人员现在已经知道安装了摄像头
Nevertheless, only one in ten washed their hands
然而 只有十分之一的人
before and after entering a patient’s room
在进入病房前后会洗手
But then, an intervention was introduced:
随后 研究人员引入了一项干预措施：
an electronic board
一块电子公告牌
that told the medical staff how well they were doing.
能够告诉医护人员他们做得有多好
Every time you washed your hands, the numbers went up on the screen
每次你洗完手 次数就会增加到屏幕上
and it showed you your rate of your current shift
屏幕会显示你当前的变化率
and the rate of the weekly staff.
和所有员工每周的变化率
And what happened?
猜猜发生了什么？
Boom!
砰！
Compliance raised to 90%,
遵从率上升到了90%
which is absolutely amazing.
这绝对是令人吃惊的
And the research staff were amazed as well,
令研究人员同样感到惊讶的是
and they made sure to replicate it in another division in the hospital,
他们将实验复制到医院的另一个部门
again the same results.
结果还是一样
So why does this intervention work so well?
为什么这项干预措施会如此奏效？
It works well Because instead of using warnings about bad things
它起作用 不是因为使用了可能发生在未来的
that can happenin the future, like disease
诸如疾病这样的坏事来进行警告
It uses three principles that we know
而是使用了我们知道的三个原则
really drive your mind and your behavior.
来真正驱动你的思想和行为
Let me explain.
让我解释一下
So the first one is social incentives.
第一个是社会激励原则
In the hospital study,
在医院的研究中
the medical staff could see what other people are doing, right?
医护人员能够看到别人在做什么 对吧？
They can see the rates of the shift, the rate of the week
他们能看到即时变化率和每周变化率
We’re social people we really care what other people are doing
我们是社会人 十分关心别人在做什么
we want to do the same and we want to do it better
我们想要做同样的事 并且做得更加出色
This is an image from a study that we conducted,
这张图片来源于由博士生
led by PhD student Mike Edelson,
Mike Edelson主持的一项研究
and what it’s showing you is a signal in the emotional center of your brain
它显示了当你听到他人的意见时
when you hear about the opinion of others.
你大脑情感中心的一个信号
And what we found was that this signal can predict
我们发现这个信号能够预测
how likely you are to conform at a later time,
你随后选择遵从的可能性有多大
how likely you are to change your behavior.
有多大可能你会改变自身行为
So, the British government are using this principle
因此 英国政府正在利用这条原则
to get people to pay taxes on time.
让人们按时交纳税款
In an old letter that they sent to people who”forgot” to pay taxes on time,
在一封按时发给“忘记”交税的人的旧信里
they simply stressed how important it was pay taxes, and that didn’t help.
他们简单地强调交税的重要性 却无任何帮助
So then they added one sentence,
所以他们增加了一句话
and that sentence said: “Nine out of ten people in Britain pay their taxes on time.”
那句话说：“在英国90%的人按时交税”
And that one sentence enhanced compliance within that group by 15%,
一句话提高了那些人15%的交税遵从度
and it’s thought to bring into the British government 5.6 billion pounds.
据说给英国政府带来了56亿英镑的税收
So, highlighting what other people are doing is a really strong incentive.
因此 强调他人在做什么是一个很强的激励
The other principle is immediate rewards. So,
另一个原则是即时奖励
every time the staff washed their hand,
每次员工洗完手
they could see the numbers go up on the board and it made them feel good.
他们能够看到公告牌上面的数字上升 这让他们感觉很好
And knowing that in advance
提前知道这一点的话
made them do something that they, otherwise, may not want to do.
他们会做一些原本不可能做的事情
Now, this works because we value immediate rewards,
这项措施起作用是因为我们重视即时奖励
rewards that we can get now,
这份奖励我们现在就能够得到
more than rewards that we can get in the future.
而不是我们在将来才能得到的
And people tend to think it’s because we don’t care about the future,
人们倾向于认为那是因为我们不关心未来
but that’s completely wrong, we all care about our future, right?
但那完全错了 我们都关心未来 对吧？
We want to be happy and healthy in the future, we want to be successful,
在未来 我们想要快乐健康 我们想要获得成功
but the future is so far away.
但是未来遥不可及
I mean, maybe you’ll behave badly now
我的意思是 也许你现在表现得很差
and you’ll be fine in the future,
但是在未来你会好起来的
and maybe you’ll be altogether dead.
也许你们会一起去世
the here-and-now you would rather have that tangible drink,
所以 此时此刻 你更愿意喝真实的饮料
that tangible T-bone, rather than something that’s uncertain in the future.
吃实在的丁字牛排 而不是在未来不确定的东西
If you think about it, it’s not altogether irrational, right?
如果你想一想 这也并不是完全非理性的 对吧？
You’re choosing something sure now rather than something that is unsure in the future.
你正在选择某些现在确定 而不是将来不确定的东西
But what will happen if you reward people now
但如果你因人们采取了未来有益于自身的行为
for doing actions that are good for them in the future?
而给与人们即时奖励 那会发生什么呢？
Studies show that giving people immediate rewards to make them more likely to quit smoking,
研究表明 给与人们即时奖励会让他们更容易戒烟
more likely to start exercising,
更有可能开始锻炼
and this effect lasts for at least six months,
效果至少可以持续六个月
because not smoking becomes associated with a reward,
因为不吸烟与奖励联系在了一起
and exercising becomes associated with a reward,
锻炼与奖励联系在了一起
and it becomes a habit, it becomes a lifestyle.
它变成了一种习惯 一种生活方式
So, we can reward ourselves and others now
所以 我们现在就可以奖励自己和他人
for behaving in ways that are good for us in the future
因为我们采取了未来对自己有益的行为
and that’s a way for us to bridge the temporal gap.
那也是我们填补时间差距的一种方式
And the third principle is progress monitoring.
第三个原则是进步监控
So, the electronic board focused the medical staff attention on improving their performance.
电子公告牌将医护人员的注意力聚焦在提高自身表现上
This is an image from a study that we conducted,
这张图片来源于我们实施的一项研究
that shows you brain activity
图片显示了你的大脑活动
suggestive of efficient coding of positive information about the future.
并暗示了对未来积极信息的有效编码
And what we found was that the brain does a really good job at this,
我们发现大脑在这方面做得非常好
but it doesn’t do such a good job at processing negative information about the future.
但在处理关于未来的负面信息时 却不尽如人意
So, what does this mean?
那这意味着什么呢？
It means that, if you’re trying to get people’s attention,
它意味着 如果你尝试获取人们的关注
you might want to highlight the progress, not the decline.
你需要强调他们的进步 而不是退步
So, for example, if you take that kid with the cigarette,
例如 如果你想让那个叼烟的孩子戒烟
you might want to tell them:
你可能就要告诉他们：
“You know, if you stop smoking, you’ll become better at sports.”
“你知道的 如果你停止吸烟 你在运动中的表现会更好”
Highlight the progress, not the decline.
强调进步 而非退步
Now, before I sum up,
在我做总结之前
let me just share this small anecdote with you.
分享一个小故事给大家
A few weeks ago, I got home and I found this bill on my fridge.
几周前 我回到家中 在冰箱上发现了这张账单
And I was really surprised because there’s never any bill on my fridge. So,
我很惊讶 因为冰箱上面从来没有出现过任何账单
I was wondering why my husband decided to put that on our fridge.
我在好奇 为什么我丈夫决定把账单放在冰箱上
And so, looking at the bill,
现在 我们看一下账单
I could see that what this bill was trying to do
我知道这张账单想尝试着
is get me to be more efficient with my electricity use.
让我更加高效地用电
And how was it doing it?
这张账单是怎么做的呢？
Social incentives, immediate rewards and progress monitoring.
社会激励 即时奖励和进步监控
Let me show you. So here is the social incentives.
我来给大家展示 这里就是社会激励
So in gray is the energy use on the average energy use of people in my neighborhood.
灰色线条是我邻居的人均用电量
And in blue is my energy use,
蓝色线条是我的电量使用情况
and in green is the most efficient neighbor.
绿色线条是最高效用电的邻居
And my reaction to this was —
我对此的反应是
my immediate reaction was: “I’m a little bit better than average” (Laughter)
我的即时反应是：“我的用电量要好于平均水平”
— a tiny bit, but still…
一点点而已 但仍是好于平均……
and my husband was exactly the same, same reaction —
我丈夫也是同样的反应
and I want to get to the green bar.
我想要加入到绿色线条中间去
And then, I got a smiley face.
随后 我得到了一个笑脸
That was my immediate reward and it was telling me,”You’re doing good.”
那是我的即时奖励 它告诉我：“你做得不错”
And it made me want to put this on my fridge.
这让我想把账单一直放在冰箱上
And although I have this one smiley face,
虽然我已经得到了一个笑脸
I can see that an opportunity there to get two smiley faces.
但我看到了获得两个笑脸的机会
So there’s an opportunity for progress
所以 这就有了进步的机会
and it’s showing me my progress throughout the year,
它向我展示了自己全年的进步情况
how my energy use changes throughout the year.
以及我全年用电量的变化情况
And the last thing this bill gave me:
这张账单教会我的最后一件事是：
it gave me a sense of control.
它给了我一种控制感
So, it gave me a sense of I was in control of my use of electricity.
它给了我一种自己在控制用电量的感觉
And that is a really important thing,
这是一件非常重要的事情
if you try to get people to change their behavior,
如果你尝试让人们改变他们的行为
because the brain is constantly trying to seek ways to control its environment.
因为大脑一直在试图寻找控制环境的方法
It’s one of the principles of what the brain is actually doing.
这实际上也是大脑的运作原则之一
And so, giving people a sense of control is a really important motivator.
所以 给予人们控制感是一种十分重要的激励
Okay, so, what am I not saying?
那么 我没有说的是什么呢？
I’m not saying, that we do not need to communicate risks,
我没有说 我们不需要讨论风险
and I’m not saying that there’s one-solution-fits-all,
我也没有说 有一种适合所有人的方案
but I am saying that, if we want to motivate change,
但我有说过的是 如果我们想要激发改变
we might want to rethink how we do it,
可能需要重新思考我们的操作方式
because fear, the fear of losing your health, the fear of losing money,
因为害怕失去健康 害怕失去金钱
induces inaction, while the thrill of a gain induces action.
会导致无所作为 而获得的兴奋则会催生行动
And so, to change behavior in ourselves and in others,
所以 要想改变自身或他人的行为
we may want to try these positive strategies
我们需要采取积极的策略 而不是威胁
rather than threats, which really capitalize on the human tendency to seek progress.
这些策略充分利用了人们追求进步的倾向
Thank you.
谢谢