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如何提高日常决策的准确率 – 译学馆
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如何提高日常决策的准确率

How to improve your daily decision making: Top 4 cognitive biases you should avoid

As you know, humans aren’t very rational.
正如你所知道的 人不是十分理智的
In fact, studies reveal that there are many biases
事实上 研究表明我们做决定的过程中
in our decision-making process.
存在很多偏见
They cause us to lose money, make wrong choices,
这些偏见让我们损失钱财 做出错误的选择
and believe in things which are completely false.
并相信一些完全错误的事情
So, here are the top 4 biases that cloud your judgement
所以 接下来介绍最影响你的判断的四种偏见
and how to correct them.
以及如何纠正它们
Number one: The self-serving bias.
一 自私偏见
A survey once asked people which celebrities would go to heaven.
有一个调查曾经问过人们哪些名人会去天堂
Mother Teresa topped the charts,
在图中特蕾莎修女排在榜首
with 79% of people believing that she would be accepted.
79%的人认为她会被天堂接纳
And yet there was someone who ranked even higher.
然而有些人排名更高
When asked about themselves,
当被问到他们自己时
87% of people said that they’d make it into heaven, too.
87%的人说他们也能去天堂
So, how do we get this delusional?
所以 我们是怎么产生这种妄想的?
Well, we attribute any success to ourselves
好吧 我们把成功归因于自己
and blame failure on the external situation.
把失败归咎于外部环境
This is the self-serving bias.
这就是自私偏见
For example, if we charm someone,
例如 如果我们吸引别人
it’s because we have a charming personality.
是因为我们有人格魅力
But if we get rejected,
但是如果我们被拒绝
Admittedly, this bias is good
不可否认 这种偏见是好的
because it protects our self-esteem.
因为它维护了我们的自尊心
In fact, depressed people showed significantly less self-serving bias.
实际上 沮丧的人明显很少表现出自私偏见
However, this bias also stops us from learning from our mistakes.
然而 这种偏见也让我们无法从错误中吸取教训
If we don’t take responsibility for our failures,
如果我们不为自己的失败负责
then we’ll never take the initiative to change.
那我们永远不会主动改变
So, how do you overcome this?
所以 你怎么克服它
Well, research shows that when you’re with your close friends,
好吧 研究表明当你和你的好友在一起时
this self-serving bias disappears.
这种自私偏见会消失
Therefore, make sure you have friends
因此 确保你有
who can call you out and keep you grounded.
能打电话给你叫你出来四处逛逛的朋友
Number two: Cognitive fluency.
二 认知娴熟
Cognitive fluency is how easy an idea is to process and understand.
认知娴熟指想法表达和理解的容易程度
The more fluent the idea, the more we unconsciously trust it.
想法表达越流利 我们越会无意识地相信它
Now, the problem is whether something is easy has nothing to do with truth.
现在 问题是事情是否简单和真相没有任何关系
This leads to an illusion of truth.
这会导致真相的假象
For example, one experiment showed that simply writing a message
例如 一个实验表明只用更简单的字体
in a clearer font will make people think it’s truer.
写信息就会让人认为那更真实
In another experiment, subjects either read the phrase
在另外一个实验中 被测试者读了两个短语中的一个
“Woes unite foes” or “Woes unite enemies.”
“Woes unite foes” 或 “Woes unite enemies”
Both have the exact same meaning,
这两个短语的意思相同
but because the first one rhymes and is hence more fluent,
但是因为前一个押韵 所以更流畅
subjects found it more insightful.
被测试者认为它更精辟
Now, this can lead to some bad decisions:
现在 这种偏见会导致一些错误的决定
For example, on the first day of trading,
例如 在股票交易的第一天
stocks with a pronounceable code rose about 30% more
代码可读的股票比代码不可读的股票
than those with unpronounceable codes.
上涨大约30%
The name fluency tricked traders into feeling confident about the stock
虽然没有合理地评估股票的价值 但是股票交易者
without properly assessing its value.
会被股票流畅的名字欺骗 从而对这个股票抱有信心
And sure enough, after six months,
足够确定的是 6个月后
those pronounceable stocks fell back to the average,
那些代码可读的股票会掉到平均值
and any initial profit was gone.
最初的股票收益也没了
So, next time you hear something that “sounds about right,”
所以 下次听到一件“听起来没错”的事情时
this is exactly when you should start questioning it.
那正是你应该开始质疑这件事的时候
Number three: The sunk cost fallacy.
三 付出成本谬论
Imagine you’ve paid twenty dollars to watch a two-hour movie,
想象一下 你花了20元看一场2小时的电影
and after one hour you’re convinced the movie is trash.
1个小时后你确信这个电影就是垃圾
You want to leave, but you feel like it would be a waste of money.
你想离开 但是你觉得浪费钱
This is the sunk cost fallacy.
这就是付出成本谬论
See, whether you decide to leave or stay,
想一想 不管你是否决定离开还是留下
In fact, by staying, on top of the $20,
实际上 留下来除了花费20元
you’ve now wasted another hour of your life.
还会继续浪费你生命中的另外一个小时
Therefore, you’d be better off leaving.
因此 离开是比较好的选择
This fallacy stems from our intense aversion to loss.
这个谬论源于我们对损失的强烈厌恶
The thought that we’ve wasted resources
这种我们已经浪费了金钱的想法
motivates us to carry on, even if it’s clearly a lost cause.
促使我们继续留下 即使这是一件明显会造成损失的事情
Now, this same thing happens in bad relationships.
现在 同样的事情发生在糟糕的人际关系中
If you’ve been together for years,
如果你们已经在一起很多年了
you feel like you’ve invested so much time and effort
你觉得你投入了太多的时间和精力
that it would be a waste to give up now,
以至于现在放弃是一种浪费
so you hold onto the slim chance that it will get better.
于是你紧紧抓住这个渺茫的机会 期待你们的关系会变好
However, this clearly isn’t logical.
然而 很明显这是不合理的
If there’s only a small chance of things ending well,
如果结局圆满的机会很小
then rationally you’d want to cut it short.
那你应该理性地停止
In all cases, you should focus on the future costs and benefits
在上述情况中 你应该把重点放在将来的付出和收益上
and not let your previous loss influence your decision.
而不是让以前的损失影响你的决定
And number four: The confirmation bias.
第四:坚信偏见
Considered one of the most dangerous biases of our minds,
坚信偏见被认为是我们心中最危险的偏见之一
the confirmation bias means you only search for evidence that confirms your beliefs.
坚信偏见指你只搜寻能证明你的观念的证据
This simple bias explains why so many people stick to unscientific beliefs.
这个简单的偏见解释了为什么那么多人坚持不科学的观念
For instance, someone who believes that humans are inherently good
例如 一些相信人性本善的人
will only seek out cases that support this claim.
只会挑出支持这个声明的实例
However, there’s plenty of evidence that humans are inherently bad too,
然而 也存在着大量人性本恶的证据
so they’re only getting one side of the story.
所以他们只讲述了故事的一个方面
Another consequence is that the framing of a question becomes vital.
另一种结果是问题的框架变得至关重要
For example, people who asked “Are you happy with your social life?”
例如 问对社会生活是否满意的人
report being more satisfied with their social life than those asked
反应出比那些不满意的人
“Are you unhappy with your social life?”
对他们的社会生活感到更满意
Why?
为什么
Simply because people try to confirm the first question
只是因为人们试图通过搜寻
by searching their memory for happy events,
他们对于幸福事件的记忆来确认前一个问题
whereas the second question does the opposite.
然而后一个问题是相反的
So, how can we prevent this bias?
所以 我们怎么避免这种偏见
Well, we can actively search for contradicting evidence.
好吧 我们可以积极搜寻反驳的证据
For example, if you think the stock markets will rise,
例如 如果你觉得股票市场会上升
you should first search why the stock markets will fall.
你应该先搜索为什么股票市场会下跌
If you think that acupuncture will work,
如果你觉得针灸有效
you should first search why acupuncture doesn’t work.
你应该先搜索为什么针灸没有效
This way, your decision isn’t biased.
这样 你的决定才不会有偏颇
And those are the top four biases that cloud your judgment.
这些就是最影响你的判断的四种偏见
If you like the music in this video,
如果你喜欢这个视频中的音乐
you should definitely check out the musician’s latest project.
你一定要查一下这个音乐家最近的作品
For more psych videos, click the subscribe button,
至于更多心理学方面的视频 请点击订阅按钮查看
and thanks for watching.
感谢观看

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如何提高日常决策的准确率?你应该避免最影响你的判断的四种偏见

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