未登录,请登录后再发表信息
最新评论 (0)
播放视频

如何处理生活中的不确定性?

How to deal with uncertainty

So, I was originally gonna release a video today about email optimization,
今天我原本想发关于邮件优化的视频
but it feels like kind of a weird time
但是我觉得
to be giving out productivity tips.
现在讲生产力技巧有点奇怪
So, I’m gonna save that one for another day.
所以改天再说那个话题
So, right about now, pretty much everything you could imagine is getting canceled
现在 我取消了你能想到的所有计划
from festivals to concerts, even my wedding.
比如节日和音乐会 甚至我的婚礼
To be honest, I was a little bit upset
把婚礼推迟一整年
when we first had to postpone our wedding an entire year,
说实话我有些难受
but compared to the NBA, I don’t know.
但跟NBA比起来
It just seems like not that big of a deal.
我觉得那似乎也不是太糟糕
Happy birthday to you.
祝你生日快乐
Now, this is a serious time
现在 我们正处于一个非常严肃的时期
and it requires serious action,
需要采取严肃的行动
and it’s gotten me to think about how people respond when they’re faced with
这让我开始思考 当面对这种无色无味的不确定性时
that tasteless, odorless, scentless thing called uncertainty.
人们会作何反应
So, you can see it in the stock market on a pretty much daily basis
这种现象在股市很常见
as things continue to seesaw from record highs to record lows.
因为股价来回波动 不断创下新高与新低
The only thing that you can guarantee right now is that
你唯一能确定的就是
things will continue to remain uncertain.
事物是不断变化的
But if you prepare accordingly,
但是如果你做了相应的准备
this should not be a time to panic.
你就不会惊慌失措
Allow me to illustrate.
让我来举个例子
This is what I like to call the axes of uncertainty.
我喜欢把这个叫做不确定性轴
When faced with uncertainty,
当面临不确定时
we have very limited options with what we can do and how we can react.
我们的行为和反应都是有限的
You’ve got those who are under prepared,
有些人准备不足
those who are over prepared,
有些人准备过度
and everywhere in-between,
还有些人秉持中庸之道
and people who react emotionally with a range from panic to calm.
人们的情绪反应也是有恐慌有平静
Up here we’ve got those who are panicked and under prepared.
假如你是惊慌失措且准备不足的人
It’s your classic deer in headlights.
可以用这只鹿来代表
You recognize that there’s a problem.
你会发现一个问题
That you should probably do something,
你知道自己应该做些什么
but you’re just so damn scared
但是你太害怕了
that you fail to take any kind of action.
以至于无法采取任何行动
They’re usually the first people to be eaten by zombies.
这些往往是第一批被僵尸吃掉的人
I mostly feel bad for these people.
我多半会为这些人感到难过
And down here,
而第三象限
we’ve got those who are under prepared and calm.
是准备不足却很冷静的一批人
At a time like this, your parents are probably down here.
现在 你的父母可能处于这个位置
You might find yourself down here for a few reasons.
处在这个位置是有原因的
Maybe you’ve become desensitized by the media
对于媒体危言耸听
always fear mongering that when a real crisis happens,
也许你已经感到麻木
you don’t believe them.
产生信任危机
Maybe you trust the wrong sources entirely.
也许你对错误的信息来源深信不疑
Anyway, not a good place to be.
好吧 这不是个好位置
It’s not a great place to be because
之所以不太好是因为
you’re not thinking critically
你没有批判性思维
and when it’s really important to take action,
而当你真正采取行动时
it’s either too late or you failed to do so.
要么太迟了 要么你失败了
Zombies are gonna eat these people as well.
僵尸也会吃掉这些人
Ah, and up here.
在第一象限
A lethal combination of panic and over preparedness.
这是惊慌和过度准备致命结合
These are the people who go out and buy a year long supply of toilet paper.
这个位置属于那种能囤一年量厕纸的人
I don’t blame them, really,
我并没有怪他们的意思
because panic is know to cause massive bouts of diarrhea.
因为恐慌确实会引发腹泻
But when you clear out all the hand sanitizer and canned soup,
但是如果你买光了所有洗手液和汤罐头
you’re being a dick.
你就太坏了
It’s both selfish and shortsighted.
既自私又目光短浅
They’re so panicked
这些人活在恐慌中
that they aren’t rational enough to prepare mindfully
他们没有足够的理性思想准备
and as a result, they too get eaten by zombies.
结果就是 他们也被僵尸吃掉了
Don’t be that person.
不要成为那样的人
Finally, down in this lower right quadrant
最后在第四象限
is really where you want to be.
是你最想成为的人
Say, right around here.
就在这儿
You’re cautious,
你很谨慎
you’ve taken the necessary steps to prepare,
你采取了必要的准备措施
you’ve got enough non-perishable food
你储存了足够不易变质的食物
and essential medical supplies to last you a few weeks,
和几个星期的医疗必需品
and you remain calm knowing that
尽人事后
you’ve done everything you possibly can.
你能够保持冷静
And as a result,
结果就是
you’ll probably be able to fight off the zombies.
你有可能战胜僵尸
But even if you are calm, admittedly,
诚然 即便你很冷静
you can still be over prepared.
你也可能准备过度
And what to note here is the law of diminishing returns when it comes to preparedness.
但要注意 关于准备 有一个收益递减的规律
The more you prepare, the better you’ll be able to tackle
无论面对什么问题
whatever problem it is that you’re facing.
你准备得越多 处理得越好
Up until a certain point,
收益上升到某个点后
when those benefits begin to diminish and then flat line.
会开始减少 变成一条水平线
Continuing to prepare beyond that has diminishing returns.
这时候如果继续准备 收益会减少
At this point, you’re simply wasting your time.
这时你只是在浪费时间
And it could crash even further
随着人们对于你及你所在社区的观点改变
when people’s opinion of you and your community change
你的收益可能会进一步下降
because you hoarded all the toilet paper because of your diarrhea panic.
因为你因腹泻恐慌储存了大量厕纸
And now, here’s the real beauty of finding your sweet spot on the axes of uncertainty,
明智的做法是在不确定轴中找到适合自己的位置
and a lesson that can be applied to any major project in your life.
并学会一条能够在生活中一以贯之的法则
You follow a simple checklist.
你要遵循这个简单的清单
Do enough research to make an informed decision,
充分调查 做明智决定
take effective action without overdoing it,
有效行动而非过度行动
stay calm knowing you did all you could,
保持冷静 知道自己已经尽人事
adjust your plan as new information comes out.
随着新信息的出现调整计划
So, this is personally how I approach my retirement investments.
以上就是我个人处理退休投资的方式
And it’s precisely why I’m not freaking out,
也是我从不惊慌失措的原因
and I’m not panicked right now that there are such highs and lows,
我现在不会因股市涨跌惊慌失措
and that it is so volatile at the moment.
目前股市价格确实有很大浮动
Because you have to look at it long-term, big picture.
你必须从长远的大局出发
So, I invest in a 401k
我投资了40.1万
and I update the balance of them every year depending upon what my returns are.
我每年会根据回报率决定投资额
This is basically just the maintenance that I need to do
这只是我需要做的基本维护工作
to make sure that it doesn’t sway too far into stocks or too far into bonds,
以确保股市或债券行情不会让我血本无归
and it’s perfectly balanced to match the risk that I’m willing to tolerate.
这些钱在我能承受的风险范围之内
But other than that, we don’t touch that money.
除此之外 我不碰那些钱
We put it in and we ignore it.
我放在那里 不去管它
Through good times, through bad times.
那些钱会赚也会赔
I’m not celebrating when times are going really well.
赚钱的时候我不会去庆祝
And times like now when things aren’t going very well at all,
但像现在一样有亏损的时候
I don’t panic as well because I know that
我也不会惊慌
because I know that I’m in it for the long run.
因为我知道这是一项长线投资
We put our money in knowing that we’re not gonna touch it for 30 plus years
我们把钱放着 30多年都不会去碰
until we need it at retirement.
直到我们退休的那一天
And, of course, once we get closer to retirement,
当然 临近退休时
we’re gonna then adjust slowly over that period of time
我们会花一段时间慢慢调整投资策略
to make sure that it’s even more secure and even more safe,
选择更安全稳健的投资方式
and take much less risks the closer that we get to age 65.
使自己在花甲之年少承担一些风险
In this specific case,
在这种情况下
I’ve done all the research I need to do
涉及个人投资
when it comes to my own personal investments.
我已做好所有应该做的调查
I understand that, since 1923,
我知道从1923年起
there’s been an average return of over 10%.
平均回报率超过了10%
So, I know that, again,
我就再次肯定
in the long-term my money is gonna be safe.
长线投资是安全的
You’ve really gotta think big picture.
你确实应该考虑全局
You see, when it comes to everything in life,
你看 对于生活中发生的事情
you’re only guaranteed a certain amount of certainty.
你只能在一定程度上把握它
Let’s say this bucket represents my wedding.
假设这个桶代表我的婚礼
You can fill this bucket with
你可以用调查 计划 行动
research, planning, and action.
来填满这个桶
You weigh the risks, the pros and cons,
你权衡风险和利弊
and prepare for as many contingencies you feel comfortable preparing for.
并心甘情愿做好万全之策
But there’s only so much you can do,
但你能做的有限
you can’t plan for everything.
不可能面面俱到
And this is where you need to embrace uncertainty.
所以你需要拥抱不确定性
This is the area that’s unplannable.
这一部分是无法预知的
It’s your rain delay, your car accident, who knows.
可能下雨耽搁了 可能你出车祸了 谁知道呢
Maybe even a pandemic.
甚至可能是疫情
You simply do the best you can
你只要尽己所能
and know that everything else is out of your control.
知道必然有些事不在你的掌控范围之内
And there are thousands of different areas in your life
我们生活中有成千上万个不同的方面
where you need to accept uncertainty.
要接受不确定性
There will always, always, always
总有一些事情
be things outside of your control.
你无法掌控
And the only guarantee in life is that
生活中唯一能保证的就是
shit’s gonna hit the fan and disrupt your plans eventually.
总有飞来横祸扰乱你的计划
So, the sooner that you get used to the fact that
生活中有太多你无法控制的事情
there are so many things in life that you can’t control,
越早习惯这一点
the sooner that you can adjust, adapt,
你就能越早调整 适应
and change your plan accordingly.
并随之改变计划
No matter what happens to you in life,
无论你的生活中发生了什么
you always have a choice for how you can react
你总是可以选择
and how you respond in those moments.
以怎样的态度去回应那些问题
At times like this, I understand that it’s difficult not to get anxious, or nervous, or emotional.
疫情下 我知道很难做到不焦虑 不紧张 不情绪化
Even myself, I find when I’m watching the news too much.
即使是我 当我看了太多新闻
When I’m getting into this habit of checking every 15 minutes
我就养成了每15分钟检查一次的习惯
and seeing what’s happening.
看看发生了什么
What’s the latest? What’s going on?
有什么最新消息? 发生了什么?
I start to find myself creeping up towards panic.
我发现自己逐渐变得恐慌
Never to the point of hoarding toilet paper, to be clear,
虽然不至于囤积厕纸
but I do find that I push myself further and further
但我确实从我的一些反应
into panic just based upon how I’m reacting,
以及我目前获取信息的媒体发现
and the media that I’m consuming in the moment.
我越来越不淡定
One important thing to leave you with
有一件重要的事情要告诉大家
as we head into even more uncertain times,
随着我们进入更加不确定的时期
let’s do our best to help lift each other up.
我们要尽己所能 互相扶持
Give each other a hand,
向彼此伸出援手
help those who maybe are facing even more difficult circumstances than yourself right now.
帮助那些目前处境比你艰难的人
In fact, my sister, who is an art teacher,
事实上我姐是一名美术老师
was recently told to go home for five weeks without pay.
在工作五周后被辞退而且没发工资
Which kind of sucks.
很糟糕
So, I actually hired her to help me make all these graphics.
所以我雇她帮我制作图象
This one right here,
就是这些
as well as all these.
还有所有的这些
Whoops, fuck.
哇 真不赖
All these graphics, aren’t they awesome!
这些图片是不是太棒了
She did the zombies, she did the deer.
她做了这些僵尸 这还有个鹿
Toilet paper stuff.
厕纸也是她画的
She is incredibly talented
她非常有才
and I wanna give her a huge shout-out.
我真想给她一个大大的赞
So, if you guys wanna support her work,
所以如果你们想支持她的工作
there’s a link down in the description.
屏幕下面有个链接
Go say, “Hi” to her.
去和她打个招呼吧
Follow her on Instagram.
在Instagram上关注她
Show her some love.
给她一些爱
Most importantly, show the people in your family,
最重要的是 给你的家人
in your community some love.
你身边的人一些爱
Not physical love, we can’t do that right now.
不是肉体上的爱 我们现在还不能这样做
But emotional, financial.
而是情感上 经济上的支持
All that other stuff.
等等
We can all do our own part,
我们可以各司其职
making the world a little bit better.
让这个世界变得更好一点
Thank you guys so much for watching
十分感谢你们的观看
and I will see you next time.
我们下期视频再见

发表评论

译制信息
视频概述

生活充满了不确定性,临时抱佛脚固不可取,过度准备也不过是但求心安,唯有秉持中庸之道,尽人事,听天命!

听录译者

收集自网络

翻译译者

ABC

审核员

审核员CL

视频来源

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jvDDPpxa-Vk

相关推荐