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怎样打造一个只有好点子才胜出的企业氛围 – 译学馆
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怎样打造一个只有好点子才胜出的企业氛围

How to build a company where the best ideas win | Ray Dalio

Whether you like it or not,
无论你喜不喜欢
radical transparency and algorithmic decision-making
彻底的透明化与演算决策法
is coming at you fast,
都来势汹汹
and it’s going to change your life.
它们也将改变你的生活
That’s because it’s now easy to take algorithms
因为把演算法
and embed them into computers
写入电脑很容易
and gather all that data
然后收集你留下来的
that you’re leaving on yourself
各种资料
all over the place, and know what you’re like,
从而了解你究竟是什么样的人
and then direct the computers to interact with you
然后让电脑跟你互动
in ways that are better than most people can.
这比大多数人与你互动要好的多
Well, that might sound scary.
这听起来可能很可怕
I’ve been doing this for a long time
我已经做这件事很久了
and I have found it to be wonderful.
而且我发现这是件很棒的事
My objective has been to have meaningful work
我的目标是做有意义的事
and meaningful relationships with the people I work with,
以及和我们的同事们建立良好的关系
and I’ve learned that I couldn’t have that
而我发现如果少了
unless I had that radical transparency
透明化和演算决策法
and that algorithmic decision-making.
我将做不到上面提到的两件事
I want to show you why that is,
我想告诉你们这是为什么
I want to show you how it works.
我想告诉你们它是如何运作的
And I warn you that some of the things
我要先警告你们
that I’m going to show you
我将要告诉你们的事情
probably are a little bit shocking.
或许会有些惊人
Since I was a kid,
从我小的时候
I’ve had a terrible rote memory.
就很不擅长死记硬背
And I didn’t like following instructions,
我也不喜欢照着指示走
I was no good at following instructions.
也不擅长按指示做事
But I loved to figure out
但我喜欢自己去发现
how things worked for myself.
事情是如何运作的
When I was 12,
当我12岁的时候
I hated school
我讨厌上学
but I fell in love with trading the markets.
但我热爱市场交易
I caddied at the time,
当时我去做了球童
earned about five dollars a bag.
一袋球挣5美元
And I took my caddying money,
我拿着当球童赚的钱
and I put it in the stock market.
把它投入了股票市场
And that was just because
仅仅因为
the stock market was hot at the time.
股票市场在当时非常火爆
And the first company I bought was a company
我买的第一支公司的股票
by the name of Northeast Airlines.
是东北航空公司的
Northeast Airlines was the only company I heard of
东北航空公司是我听过的唯一的
that was selling for less than five dollars a share.
每股卖价少于5美元的公司
(Laughter)
(大笑)
And I figured I could buy more shares, and if it went up,
我想买更多的股票 如果它升值了
I’d make more money.
我就可以赚更多钱
So, it was a dumb strategy, right?
所以 这是一个很蠢的策略 对吗?
But I tripled my money,
但是我的钱翻了三倍
and I tripled my money because I got lucky.
我的钱翻了三倍 就因为我运气好
The company was about to go bankrupt,
这家公司濒临破产
but some other company acquired it,
其他的公司把它买了下来
and I tripled my money.
然后我赚了三倍回来
And I was hooked.
我上瘾了
And I thought,”This game is easy.”
我心想 “这个游戏真容易”
With time, I learned this game is anything but easy.
过了一段时间之后 我发现这个游戏其实相当困难
In order to be an effective investor,
为了成为一名有效率的投资人
one has to bet against the consensus
你不能随波逐流
and be right.
而且要眼光准确
And it’s not easy to bet against the consensus and be right.
不随波逐流且眼光准确并不容易
One has to bet against the consensus and be right
你必须不随波逐流且眼光准确
because the consensus is built into the price.
因为社会大众的看法 会反映在股价上面
And in order to be an entrepreneur,
为了成为一名企业家
a successful entrepreneur,
一个成功的企业家
one has to bet against the consensus
就必须不随波逐流
and be right.
且眼光准确
I had to be an entrepreneur and an investor —
在成为企业家以及投资人的路上
and what goes along with that is making a lot of painful mistakes.
我犯了许多严重的错误
So I made a lot of painful mistakes,
我就是这么过来的
and with time, my attitude about those mistakes began to change.
随着时间过去 我对于这些错误的态度开始有了改变
I began to think of them as puzzles.
我开始把它们看做是一个个谜题
That if I could solve the puzzles, they would give me gems.
如果我能解决这些谜题 就能得到宝石
And the puzzles were:
这些谜题就是:
What would I do differently in the future
未来我要怎么做
so I wouldn’t make that painful mistake?
才能避免再犯这些错误呢?
And the gems were principles
而那些宝石就是
that I would then write down so I would remember them
我写下并牢记的原则
that would help me in the future.
这些原则在未来会对我有所帮助
And because I wrote them down so clearly,
就是因为我把它们清楚地写下来
I could then — eventually discovered — I could then embed them into algorithms.
最后才发现–我可以把它们写进算法
And those algorithms would be embedded in computers,
然后就可以把这些算法 写入到电脑里
and the computers would make decisions along with me;
最后电脑就可以跟我一起做出决定
and so in parallel, we would make these decisions.
电脑会和我一起做出决定
And I could see how those
之后我们会去
decisions then compared with my own decisions,
把这个决定和我自己做的相比较
and I could see that those decisions were a lot better.
然后我发现电脑和我一起做的决定好多了
And that was because the computer could make decisions much faster,
这是因为电脑做决定的速度快多了
it could process a lot more information
而且它能够处理更多的咨讯
and it can process decisions much more —
它在做决定时–
less emotionally.
也不会被情绪所影响
So it radically improved my decision-making.
所以 电脑极大的改善了我做的决定
Eight years after I started Bridgewater,
在我成立对冲基金Bridgewater八年之后
I had my greatest failure, my greatest mistake.
我经历了人生中最大的失败 最大的错误
It was late 1970s,
当时是20世纪70年代末期
I was 34 years old,
当年我34岁
and I had calculated that American banks
我计算出美国的银行
had lent much more money to emerging countries
借给新兴国家太多的钱
than those countries were going to be able to pay back
多到这些国家还不起
and that we would have the greatest debt crisis
这可能会让我们遭遇
since the Great Depression.
自从经济大萧条以来最大的债务危机
And with it, an economic crisis
伴随而来的就会是经济危机
and a big bear market in stocks.
还有严重的熊市
It was a controversial view at the time.
这个观点在当时很具争议性
People thought it was kind of a crazy point of view.
大家觉得这是个有点疯狂的想法
But in August 1982,
但在1982年8月
Mexico defaulted on its debt, and a number of other countries followed.
墨西哥宣布了债务违约 然后其它的国家也跟进
And we had the greatest debt crisis since the Great Depression.
我们就这样遇到了 自经济大萧条以来最大的债务危机
And because I had anticipated that,
因为我早就已经预料到了这件事
I was asked to testify to Congress and appear on”Wall Street Week,”
我被邀请到去国会作证
which was the show of the time.
以及上了当时的热门节目“本周华尔街”
Just to give you a flavor of that,
为了让你们亲身体验
I’ve got a clip here,
我准备了一段影片
and you’ll see me in there.
我就出现在这影片当中
(Video) Mr. Chairman, Mr. Mitchell,
(影片)主席 米歇尔先生
it’s a great pleasure and a great
我很高兴也很
honor to be able to appear before you
荣幸来到这里
in examination with what is going wrong with our economy.
检视我们的经济出了什么问题
The economy is now flat — teetering on the brink of failure.
经济没有成长–在崩溃的边缘摇摇欲坠
Martin Zweig: You were recently quoted in an article.
马丁·茨威格:最近文章提到
You said,”I can say this with absolute certainty
你说“我非常肯定我说过的话
because I know how markets work.”
因为我知道市场是如何运作的。”
Ray Dalio: I can say with absolute certainty
雷·达里欧:我非常确定我的论点是对的
that if you look at the liquidity base
如果把企业的流动资金
in the corporations and the world as a whole,
和全世界看做一体的话
that there’s such reduced level of liquidity
目前资金流动性大幅降低
that you can’t return to an era of stagflation.”
不能回到停滞性通货膨胀的时期
I look at that now, I think,”What an arrogant jerk!”
我现在回过头来看 我想 真是个自大的混蛋
(Laughter)
(大笑)
I was so arrogant, and I was so wrong.
我如此的傲慢 我错的如此荒唐
I mean, while the debt crisis happened,
我的意思是 当债务危机发生的时候
the stock market and the economy
股票市场和经济
went up rather than going down,
上升而不是下降
and I lost so much money
我让自己和客户
for myself and for my clients
损失了这么多钱
that I had to shut down my operation pretty much,
我几乎必须要关闭我的对冲基金
I had to let almost everybody go.
我几乎要让所有人都离职
And these were like extended family, I was heartbroken.
这些人对我来说就像家人一样
And I had lost so much money
由于损失了很多钱
that I had to borrow 4,000 dollars from my dad
所以我不得不从我父亲那里
to help to pay my family bills.
借了4000美金贴补家用
It was one of the most painful experiences of my life…
这是我一生中最痛苦的一次经历……
but it turned out to be one
但是后来证明这也是
of the greatest experiences of my life
我生命中最棒的体验
because it changed my attitude about decision-making.
因为这次经历改变了我对做决定的态度
Rather than thinking,”I’m right,”
我开始问自己
I started to ask myself,
而不是认为“我就是对的”
“How do I know I’m right?”
“我怎么知道我是对的呢?”
I gained a humility that I needed in order to balance my audacity.
我需要消除我的自大 所以我懂得了谦逊
I wanted to find the smartest
我想找到跟我意见不同的
people who would disagree with me
最聪明的人
to try to understand their perspective or to have them stress test my perspective.
并努力去理解他们的观点或者他们对我的观点进行压力测试
I wanted to make an idea meritocracy.
我想创造一种英才制度的观念
In other words,
换句话说
not an autocracy
不是一种独裁政治
in which I would lead and others would follow
这种制度我可以领导 其他人可以跟随
and not a democracy in which everybody’s points
也不是民主制度
of view were equally valued,
具有平等价值的民主
but I wanted to have an idea meritocracy
而是我想让它成为一种英才制度
in which the best ideas would win out.
采用这种制度 最好的观点才会胜出
And in order to do that,
为了做到这些
I realized that we would need radical truthfulness
我认识到我们需要彻底的真实
and radical transparency.
和高度的透明化
What I mean by radical truthfulness and radical transparency
我所说的彻底的真实和高度的透明化意思是这种制度
is people needed to say what they really believed
就是人们需要说出他们真正的想法
and to see everything.
并且让他们看到这一切
And we literally tape almost all conversations
我们逐字地把几乎所有的谈话录下来
and let everybody see everything, because if we didn’t do that,
把一切都公之于众 因为如果我们不这么做
we couldn’t really have an idea meritocracy.
我们就不能真的实现英才制度这个想法
In order to have an idea meritocracy,
为了推广英才制度的观念
we have let people speak and say what they want.
我们要让人们说出他们想要什么
Just to give you an example,
好吧举个例子
this is an email from Jim Haskel —
这是一封吉姆·哈斯克尔发来的邮件
somebody who works for me —
他是我的一名员工–
and this was available to everybody in the company. “Ray,
这个封信公司里的每个人都能看见
you deserve a’D-‘
“瑞 你今天在会议中的表现
for your performance today in the meeting…
只能获得’D’……
you did not prepare
你根本没有准备好
at all well because there is no way you could have been that disorganized.”
因为你本该组织好但并没有那么准备
Isn’t that great?
这不是很好吗?
(Laughter)
(大笑)
That’s great.
太好了!
It’s great because, first of all, I needed feedback like that.
这样太好了因为 首先 我需要那样的反馈
I need feedback like that.
我需要那样的反馈
And it’s great because if I don’t let Jim,
这样很好因为如果我不让吉姆这样做
and people like Jim,
以及让人们像吉姆一样
to express their points of view, our relationship wouldn’t be the same.
表达出他们的观点 我们的关系就不会像现在一样了
And if I didn’t make that public for everybody to see,
如果我不这样做
we wouldn’t have an idea meritocracy.
我们就实现不了英才制度
So for that last 25 years that’s how we’ve been operating.
所以 在过去近25年来 这就是我们实行的
We’ve been operating with this radical transparency
我们一直在实行高度的透明化
and then collecting these principles,
从错误中
largely from making mistakes,
收集原则
and then embedding those principles into algorithms.
然后把这些原则输入电脑
And then those algorithms provide —
我们服从这些根据算法原则
we’re following the algorithms
根据我们的思维
in parallel with our thinking.
然后这些算法提供决策
That has been how we’ve run the investment business,
这是我们运营投资生意的方法
and it’s how we also deal with the people management.
这也是我们人事管理的方法
In order to give you a glimmer
为了让你
into what this looks like,
看得更清楚
I’d like to take you into a meeting
我想给你看一次会议
and introduce you to a tool of ours called the”Dot Collector”
给你介绍一个叫做“点收集器”的工具
that helps us do this.
这是个好帮手
A week after the US election,
美国大选一周后
our research team held a meeting
我们的研究团队举行了一次会议
to discuss what a Trump presidency would mean for the US economy. Naturally,
讨论特朗普总统上台对美国经济意味着什么
people had different opinions on the matter
自然地 人们对这件事情有着不同的看法
and how we were approaching the discussion.
我们是如何讨论的
The”Dot Collector” collects these views.
点收集器能收集观点
It has a list of a few dozen attributes,
它有一张几十种看法的单子
so whenever somebody thinks something about another person’s thinking,
无论何时你对别人意见的看法
it’s easy for them to convey their assessment;
很容易传达
they simply note the attribute and provide a rating from one to 10.
他们简单标记这个属性 然后按1到10排序
For example, as the meeting began,
举个例子来说 会议开始的时候
a researcher named Jen rated me a three —
一个叫珍的研究员把我排在第三
in other words, badly —
换句话来说 这是很糟的
(Laughter)
[笑声]
for not showing a good balance of open-mindedness and assertiveness.
没有展示出思想开放和魄力
As the meeting transpired, Jen’s assessments of people added up like this.
随着会议的展开 像珍这样对我的评价的人数增加了
Others in the room have different opinions.
屋里的其他人有不同的观点
That’s normal.
这是正常的
Different people are always going to have different opinions.
不同的人总是有不同的观点
And who knows who’s right?
谁知道谁是对的呢?
Let’s look at just what people thought about how I was doing.
让我们看看人们对我做的事情怎么认为的吧
Some people thought I did well, others,
一些人认为我做的好 还有一些人
poorly.
认为很烂
With each of these views, we can explore the thinking behind the numbers.
有了这些数据 我们能发现隐匿在数据之后的见解
Here’s what Jen and Larry said.
这是珍和拉里所说
Note that everyone gets to express their thinking,
记录每个人的见解
including their critical thinking, regardless of their position in the company. Jen,
包括他们吹毛求疵的想法 无论他们在公司所处何种职位 珍
who’s 24 years old and right out of college,
有个24岁 刚毕业的大学生
can tell me, the CEO, that I’m approaching things terribly.
告诉我这个首席执行官 我观察事物的能力很差
This tool helps people both express their opinions
这个工具不仅帮助人们都能表达想法
and then separate themselves from their opinions
并把他们和观点相分离
to see things from a higher level.
从一个更高的视角看问题
When Jen and others shift their attentions
当珍和其他人将注意力
from inputting their own opinions
从输入主观观点
to looking down on the whole screen,
转向全屏
their perspective changes.
他们的看法改变了
They see their own opinions as just one of many
他们就像其他人一样开始审视自己的观点
and naturally start asking themselves,
自然地开始询问自己
“How do I know my opinion is right?”
我怎么知道我的观点是正确的呢
That shift in perspective is like going
这种观念的转变
from seeing in one dimension
就像从一个维度
to seeing in multiple dimensions.
转向多级维度
And it shifts the conversation from arguing over our opinions
同时它也将从会谈转变为争论
to figuring out objective criteria for determining which opinions are best.
主观批判寻求最佳观点
Behind the”Dot Collector” is a computer that is watching.
点收集器的背后是一个观察的电脑
It watches what all these people are thinking
它观察这些人在想什么
and it correlates that with how they think.
它把人们的想法与他们的思维模式相关联
And it communicates advice back to each of them based on that.
基于这个 再回传建议
Then it draws the data from all the meetings
然后从所有的会议中提取数据
to create a pointilist painting of what people are like
创建一个关于人们喜欢什么
and how they think.
他们的思维模式的数据表
And it does that guided by algorithms.
通过算法引导
Knowing what people are like helps to match them better with their jobs.
知道什么人能更好地匹配什么工作
For example, a creative thinker who is unreliable might be matched up
比如说 一个有创造力但不靠谱的思想家应该与
with someone who’s reliable but not creative.
可靠但缺少创造力的人合作
Knowing what people are like also allows us to decide
了解这些人也帮助我们决策
what responsibilities to give them
应该给他们分发怎样的责任
and to weigh our decisions based on people’s merits.
权衡决定基于这些人的优点
We call it their believability.
我们称之为他们的可信度
Here’s an example
举个例子
of a vote that we took where the majority of people felt one way…
在一个大部分人都投给了一方
but when we weighed the views based on people’s merits,
但我们在他们的业绩之上权衡那些观点
the answer was completely different.
得到的结果是截然不同的
This process allows us to make decisions not based on democracy,
这个过程告诉我们决策不是基于民主
not based on autocracy,
不是基于独裁
but based on algorithms that take people’s believability into consideration. Yup,
而是基于将人们的可信度纳入考虑范围的算法
we really do this.
我们就是在做这个
(Laughter)
[笑]
We do it because it eliminates
我们这样做是因为这个排除了
what I believe to be one
我相信成为
of the greatest tragedies of mankind,
最有谋略的人
and that is people arrogantly,
这是人类自大的根性
naïvely holding opinions in their minds that are wrong,
天真地把想法放在心里是错的
and acting on them,
亲身践行
and not putting them out there to stress test them.
不要把他们作为考验和压力
And that’s a tragedy.
这是策略
And we do it because it elevates ourselves
我们这么做是因为它将我们提升于
above our own opinions
我们的观点之上
so that we start to see things through everybody’s eyes,
所以我们会通过他人眼光看问题
and we see things collectively.
我们会看问题更全面
Collective decision-making is so much better than individual decision-making
周全的决策比单人决策要更好
if it’s done well.
如果它做得好的话
It’s been the secret sauce behind our success.
这是成功背后的秘诀
It’s why we’ve made more money for our clients
这是我们客户比其他
than any other hedge fund in existence and made money 23
现存套期保值基金更高的原因
out of the last 26 years.
同时在过去26年中赚了23倍
So what’s the problem with being radically truthful
对彼此绝对真实和透明
and radically transparent with each other?
会带来什么问题呢
People say it’s emotionally difficult.
人们会说会带来情绪问题
Critics say it’s a formula for a brutal work environment.
批评者说这是残酷的工作环境的法则
Neuroscientists tell me it has to do with how are brains are prewired.
神经系统科学家告诉我这与大脑预配有关
There’s a part
这是大脑的一部分
of our brain that would like to know our mistakes
想知道我们的不足
and like to look at our weaknesses so we could do better.
以便能查漏补缺
I’m told that that’s the prefrontal cortex.
有人告诉我那是前额皮质
And then there’s a part
这是大脑的一部分
of our brain which views all of this as attacks.
将所有的都看作是攻击
I’m told that that’s the amygdala.
有人告诉我那时扁桃腺
In other words, there are two you’s inside you:
换句话说 这是你身体的两部分
there’s an emotional you and there’s an
一个情绪化的你和一个理智的你
intellectual you, and often they’re at odds,
他们经常是有差别的
and often they work against you.
它们通常会和你意愿相悖
It’s been our experience that we can win this battle.
这会成为我们赢得这场战役的宝贵经历
We win it as a group.
作为一个整体我们赢了
It takes about 18 months typically
用了18个月代表性地发现
to find that most people prefer operating this way,
大多数人更喜欢
with this radical transparency
用绝对透明的方式操作
than to be operating in a more opaque environment.
而非不透明
There’s not politics, there’s not the brutality of —
这儿没有政治 没有暴行
you know, all of that hidden, behind-the-scenes —
你知道的 这一切背后
there’s an idea meritocracy where people can speak up.
这是英才制度 人们能发声
And that’s been great.
这是极好的
It’s given us more effective work,
这让我们工作更有效
and it’s given us more effective relationships.
同时也给予我们更有效的人际关系
But it’s not for everybody.
但并不适用于每个人
We found something like 25 or 30 percent of the population
我们发现有25%或30%的人
it’s just not for.
不适合全透明
And by the way, when I say radical transparency,
顺便 当我说到基本透明度时
I’m not saying transparency about everything.
我并没有说透明度是万能的
I mean, you don’t have to tell somebody
我的意思是你不必告诉某些人
that their bald spot is growing
他们的秃顶越来越严重了
or their baby’s ugly. So,
或者是他们的孩子很丑
I’m just talking about —
所以 我只是说
(Laughter)
[笑]
talking about the important things.
讨论重要的事情
So —
所以
(Laughter)
[笑]
So when you leave this room,
所以你离开这间房以后
I’d like you to observe yourself in conversations with others.
你可以在和别人交流时审视你自己
Imagine if you knew what they were really thinking,
想象如果你知道他们到底在想什么
and imagine if you knew what they were really like…
想象如果你知道他们真正喜欢什么
and imagine if they knew what you were really thinking
想象如果他们知道你在想什么
and what were really like.
喜欢什么
It would certainly clear things up a lot
这会使事情明朗化
and make your operations together more effective.
使你的操作组合在一起更有效率
I think it will improve your relationships.
我认为这会提高你的人际关系
Now imagine that you can have algorithms
想象你有这种算法
that will help you gather all of that information
帮助你集合所有的信息
and even help you make decisions in an idea-meritocratic way.
甚至帮你用一种英才管理的方式做决定
This sort of radical transparency is coming at you
这种绝对透明的方式正向你袭来
and it is going to affect your life.
正将影响你的生活
And in my opinion,
在我看来
it’s going to be wonderful.
这真是太好了
So I hope it is as wonderful for you
我希望这能让你惊叹
as it is for me.
就像让我着迷一样
Thank you very much.
非常感谢
(Applause)
鼓掌

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视频概述

如何判断一个好点子,现在有了新的方法。

听录译者

收集自网络

翻译译者

甪里

审核员

审核员SX

视频来源

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HXbsVbFAczg

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