ADM-201 dump PMP dumps pdf SSCP exam materials CBAP exam sample questions

怎样让企业持续运行100年? – 译学馆
未登陆,请登陆后再发表信息
最新评论 (0)
播放视频

怎样让企业持续运行100年?

How to build a business that lasts 100 years | Martin Reeves

把自己想象成一个产品设计师
Imagine that you are a product designer.
你设计了一种产品
And you’ve designed a product,
一种叫做人体免疫机制的新产品
a new type of product, called the human immune system.
你在向一个持质疑态度
You’re pitching this product
不容许讲废话的经理推销这种产品
to a skeptical, strictly no-nonsense manager.
让我们叫他鲍勃
Let’s call him Bob.
我想每个人都至少认识一个鲍勃 对吧
I think we all know at least one Bob, right?
将会发生什么呢
How would that go?
鲍勃 我有了一个美妙的想法
Bob, I’ve got this incredible idea
我要做一种全新的个人健康产品
for a completely new type of personal health product.
它叫做人体免疫机制
It’s called the human immune system.
我能从你的反应看出你不太相信
I can see from your face that you’re having some problems with this.
不要担心 我知道这不好理解
Don’t worry. I know it’s very complicated.
我不会赘述令人肉麻的细节
I don’t want to take you through the gory details,
我只想告诉你这种产品的几个惊人之处
I just want to tell you about some of the amazing features of this product.
首先 它巧妙地使用了庞大性
First of all, it cleverly uses redundancy
它拥有上百万备用的同种组织
by having millions of copies of each component —
比如血白细胞
leukocytes, white blood cells —
来制造应对突发情况的
before they’re actually needed,
有效方案
to create a massive buffer against the unexpected.
其次它有着多样性
And it cleverly leverages diversity
不只是有白血细胞 还有B细胞、T细胞、
by having not just leukocytes but B cells, T cells,
自然杀伤细胞和抗体
natural killer cells, antibodies.
重要的不是它的组成部分
The components don’t really matter.
重要的是合在一起
The point is that together,
这种有着不同种类的多样性
this diversity of different approaches can cope with more or less anything
几乎可以解决进化中出现的所有问题
that evolution has been able to throw up.
而且它的设计十分模块化
And the design is completely modular.
有着人体皮肤的表面保护
You have the surface barrier of the human skin,
不仅有与生俱来的反应敏捷的免疫机制
you have the very rapidly reacting innate immune system
还有着适应力极强的高效免疫系统
and then you have the highly targeted adaptive immune system.
即使一种机制失效 另一种也能及时补上
The point is, that if one system fails, another can take over,
创造出十分安全的系统
creating a virtually foolproof system.
我知道你开始听不懂了 鲍勃 但请听我说完
I can see I’m losing you, Bob, but stay with me,
因为现在才是产品的杀手锏
because here is the really killer feature.
这种产品具有极强的适应力
The product is completely adaptive.
它可以针对从未见过的病原
It’s able to actually develop targeted antibodies
制造出相应的抗体
to threats that it’s never even met before.
它还十分精准
It actually also does this with incredible prudence,
发现并对每种危机做出反应
detecting and reacting to every tiny threat,
并且记住每一次外界入侵
and furthermore, remembering every previous threat,
以防再次遭遇同种危险
in case they are ever encountered again.
我今天想和你们讲的 其实不是一种独立运作的产品
What I’m pitching you today is actually not a stand-alone product.
这种产品与整个人体相结合
The product is embedded in the larger system of the human body,
并且和整体和谐共处
and it works in complete harmony with that system,
创造出了史无前例的生物保护机制
to create this unprecedented level of biological protection.
鲍勃 请你诚实地告诉我 你觉得这款产品怎么样?
So Bob, just tell me honestly, what do you think of my product?
鲍勃可能会说
And Bob may say something like,
我真挚地赞赏你在展示中
I sincerely appreciate the effort and passion
所表现出的努力和热情
that have gone into your presentation,
啦啦啦啦……
blah blah blah —
[笑声]
(Laughter)
但是讲实话 简直是胡说八道
But honestly, it’s total nonsense.
你似乎在讲你产品的买点
You seem to be saying that the key selling points of your product
是它的极其低效和冗杂
are that it is inefficient and complex.
你难道没有学过80/20法则吗?
Didn’t they teach you 80-20?
而且你还似乎在说这种产品很浪费
And furthermore, you’re saying that this product is siloed.
它反应过激
It overreacts,
制造出东西又无的放矢
makes things up as it goes along
效益明显不高
and is actually designed for somebody else’s benefit.
很抱歉让你遗憾了 但它肯定没有希望
I’m sorry to break it to you, but I don’t think this one is a winner.
如果我们同意鲍勃的观点
If we went with Bob’s philosophy,
我们会得到更为高效的免疫系统
I think we’d actually end up with a more efficient immune system.
而且效率在短期来说往往十分重要
And efficiency is always important in the short term.
少些复杂 多些效率 更合算些
Less complex, more efficient, more bang for the buck.
谁会拒绝这些好处呢?
Who could say no to that?
不幸的是 有一个小小的问题
Unfortunately, there’s one very tiny problem,
那就是如果你我有着这样的免疫系统
and that is that the user of this product, you or I,
那么在遭遇新型传染病毒时
would probably die within one week of the next winter,
你我可能活不过下一个冬天的头一周
when we encountered a new strain of the influenza virus.
我第一次对生物与商业
I first became interested in biology and business,
以及持久性和抗压性赶到兴趣
and longevity and resilience,
是在被一个全球科技公司的CEO
when I was asked a very unusual question
问了一个不寻常的问题时
by the CEO of a global tech company.
那个问题是
And the question was:
怎样确保我们的公司能够持续运作100年?
What do we have to do to make sure that our company lasts 100 years?
看上去是一个幼稚的问题
A seemingly innocent question,
但是问题远没有你想的这么简单
but actually, it’s a little trickier than you might think,
美国现在普通的公共公司
considering that the average US public company now
通常只有30年的寿命
can expect a life span of only 30 years.
这几乎是它的员工
That is less than half of the life span
工作寿命的一半
that its employees can expect to enjoy.
现在 如果你是这样一个公司的CEO
Now, if you were the CEO of such a company,
被投资者纠缠不放 因变化而遭受打击
badgered by investors and buffeted by change,
可以理解你不为
we might forgive you for not even worrying too much
之后30年的事操心太多
about what happens 30 years out.
但有些事可能会让你难以入眠
But here’s something that should keep you awake at night:
你的公司在5年后倒闭的可能性
the probability that your company will not be around in five year’s time,
平均在32%上下浮动
on average, is now a staggering 32 percent.
也就是有三分之一的几率
That’s a one in three chance that your company will be taken over
你的公司会在5年后被转手或是倒闭
or will fail within just five years.
又来说说科技公司老板的问题
Let’s come back to our tech CEO’s question.
哪里有向比大自然求教更好的呢?
Where better to turn for advice than nature,
大自然已经在生死轮回的游戏中
that’s been in the business of life and death
比任何公司存活得都要久了
for longer than any company?
作为一个不务正业的生物学家
As a lapsed biologist,
我马上联系了一个更专业的生物学者
I decided to immediately call a real biologist,
我朋友赛门·莱文
my friend Simon Levin,
普林斯顿大学的生物学和数学教授
Professor of Biology and Mathematics at Princeton University.
我们共同研究了许多生态系统
Together, we looked at a variety of biological systems,
从自然热带雨林
ranging from natural tropical rainforests
到人造森林和鱼塘
through to managed forests and fisheries.
我们问了自己一个问题
And we asked ourselves the question:
是什么使这些系统具有抗压能力 和持续性
What makes these systems resilient and enduring?
我们发现恰恰是支撑着人体免疫系统的
And what we found was that the same six principles
六条规律
that we saw underpinning the miracle of the human immune system
一次又一次地表现出来
actually cropped up again and again,
从庞大性到镶嵌性
from redundancy through to embeddedness.
事实上 我们不只是在生物持久的系统中 发现这些规律
In fact, we saw these principles not only in biologically enduring systems,
我们还发现
we also found them being very characteristic
它们在寿命长久的社会系统中 也表现得十分突出
of long-lived social systems,
就像在罗马帝国 和天主教堂中的表现
like the Roman Empire and the Catholic Church,
信不信由你
believe it or not.
我们还研究了商界
We also went on to look at business,
也发现它们在坚韧且长久的企业中
and found that these very same properties also characterized businesses
表现的非常明显
that were resilient and long-lived,
并且发现了短命的企业中这种 品质的缺失
and we noted their absence from ones which were short-lived.
先来看看当企业的免疫机制失效时
Let’s first take a look at what happens when the corporate immune system
会发生什么
collapses.
这栋美丽的建筑是日本大阪
This beautiful building is part of the Shitennoji Temple Complex
四天王寺寺庙的一部分
in Osaka, Japan.
事实上它是日本最老的建筑之一
In fact, it’s one of the oldest temples in Japan.
它由一个韩国工匠修建
It was built by a Korean artisan,
由于在那时日本还不会修建寺庙
because at the time, Japan was not yet building temples.
这个韩国工匠创建了一个 修建寺庙的公司
And this Korean artisan went on to found a temple-building company.
十分神奇的是 他的公司 Kongō Gumi
Amazingly, his company, Kongō Gumi,
在1480年后仍然存在
was still around 1,428 years later.
实际上 它成为了世界上持续经营的
In fact, it became the oldest continuously operating company
最古老的公司
in the world.
Kongō Gumi现在怎么样了呢
So how is Kongō Gumi doing today?
恐怕不是很好
Not too well, I’m afraid.
在日本经济泡沫时期
It borrowed very heavily
借了很重的债
during the bubble period of the Japanese economy,
来投资房地产
to invest in real estate.
当经济泡沫破裂时 它不能偿还债务
And when the bubble burst, it couldn’t refinance its loans.
公司破产了
The company failed,
被一所主流建筑公司收购
and it was taken over by a major construction company.
可悲的是 在 Kongō家族40代的
Tragically, after 40 generations of very careful stewardship
苦心经营之后
by the Kongō family,
Kongō Gumi最终屈服于在审慎这一原则上
Kongō Gumi succumbed to a spectacular lapse
的巨大失败
in the ability to apply a principle of prudence.
讲到公司倒闭
Speaking of company failures:
我们都熟悉柯达公司的失败
we’re all familiar with the failure of Kodak,
柯达在2012年一月
the company that declared bankruptcy
宣布破产
in January 2012.
然而更为有趣的是:
Much more interesting, however, is the question:
为什么富士胶片
Why did Fujifilm —
同样的产品 相同的数码科技界的压力 同样的时间段
same product, same pressures from digital technology, same time —
为什么富士胶片能够存活下来 并且欣欣向荣?
why was Fujifilm able to survive and flourish?
富士胶片运用了自己在 化学 材料科学和光学上的造诣
Fujifilm used its capabilities in chemistry, material science and optics
将自己的涉及领域多样化
to diversify into a number of areas,
从化妆品到医药
ranging from cosmetics to pharmaceuticals,
到医学系统、到生物材料
to medical systems to biomaterials.
有一些多样化的尝试失败了
Some of these diversification attempts failed.
但是总体来说
But in aggregate,
它能游刃有余地改变它的投资组合
it was able to adapt its portfolio sufficiently
从而幸存并且繁荣
to survive and flourish.
就像其CEO Komori先生说的
As the CEO, Mr. Komori, put it,
这种策略之所以成功
the strategy succeeded because it had “more pockets and drawers”
是因为它比同行有更多的“口袋”和“抽屉”
than the rivals.
他的意思当然是
He meant, of course,
他们比同行创造了更多的选择空间
that they were able to create more options than the rivals.
富士胶片存活了下来 因为它采用了这些规律:审慎
Fujifilm survived because it applied the principles of prudence,
多样化
diversity
和适应能力
and adaptation.
像我们看到的这张图 一场灾难性的工厂大火
A catastrophic factory fire, like the one we see here,
在一个晚上完全地摧毁了
completely wiped out, in one evening,
为丰田刹车系统提供阀门的唯一 一个工厂
the only plant which supplied Toyota with valves for car-braking systems.
这是对抗压能力的终极考验
The ultimate test of resilience.
汽车生产进入了中断
Car production ground to a screeching halt.
之后怎么样了呢?丰田是否 能否重整旗鼓恢复汽车生产?
How was it, then, that Toyota was able to recover car production?
你能想象这花了多长时间吗?
Can you imagine how long it took?
仅仅只有五天
Just five days.
从没有刹车阀门到完全恢复生产 只用了五天时间
From having no braking valves to complete recovery in five days.
这怎么可能呢?
How was this possible?
丰田用一种合作的方式组织 供销商网络
Toyota managed its network of suppliers in such a collaborative manner
因此能够与供销商 迅速顺利地合作
that it could work very quickly and smoothly with suppliers
来重振生产
to repurpose production,
弥补缺失的刹车阀门生产能力
fill the missing braking valve capacity
让汽车生产重新运作
and have car production come online again.
丰田运用了供给网络的模块化原理
Toyota applied the principles of modularity of its supply network,
在相互结合的系统中的镶嵌原理
embeddedness in an integrated system
以及有效的庞大性 来达到顺利重整
and the functional redundancy to be able to repurpose, smoothly,
现有生产能力的效果
existing capacity.
幸运的是 很少有公司 因大火而破产
Now fortunately, few companies succumb to catastrophic fires.
但我们却每天在报纸上读到
But we do read in the newspaper every day about companies
有公司因为科技的干扰而倒闭
succumbing to the disruption of technology.
光学巨头伊视路
How is it, then, that the consumer optics giant Essilor
是怎样避免科技干扰 甚至从中获利的呢?
is able to avoid technology disruption, and even profit from it?
是的 科技干扰不仅仅在软件和 电子业上
And yes, technology disruption is not only a big deal
意义重大
in software and electronics.
伊视路仔细地在竞争环境中
Essilor carefully scans the competitive environment
审查了可能存在的干扰科技
for potentially disruptive technologies.
在这些科技的价格变得高昂 或者同行得到它们之前
It acquires those technologies very early,
伊视路很早就获取了这些科技
before they’ve become expensive or competitors have mobilized around them,
然后它自己发展它们
and it then develops those technologies itself,
甚至冒着失败
even at the risk of failure
和自我干扰的风险
or the risk of self-disruption.
伊视路保持在了前列
Essilor stays ahead of its game,
通过运用精准和适应的法则
and has delivered spectacular performance
在近40年内
for over 40 years,
它表现了出色的成绩
by using the principles of prudence and adaptation.
好了 既然这些法则如此强大 你可能会想
OK, if these principles are so powerful, you might be thinking,
为什么在商界不常见到它们呢?
why are they not commonplace in business?
为什么它们还不是老生常谈?
Why do we not use these words every day?
好吧 改变首先得从思想开始
Well, change has to first start in the mind.
如果我们回想对鲍勃的推销
If we think back to our pitch to Bob,
为了运用支撑人体免疫机制的
in order to apply the principles
几条法则
that underpin the miracle of the human immune system,
我们首先得从另一个角度
we first need to think differently
来思考商业
about business.
通常 当我们想到商业的时候
Now typically, when we think about business,
我们使用我所谓的“力学思考法”
we use what I call “mechanical thinking.”
我们制定目标
We set goals,
分析问题
we analyze problems,
制定并执行计划
we construct and we adhere to plans,
最为重要的是
and more than anything else,
我们强调效率和短期表现
we stress efficiency and short-term performance.
现在 请不要搞错
Now, don’t get me wrong —
这是一种在相对稳定的环境中
this is a splendidly practical and effective way
解决较为简单的问题时
of addressing relatively simple challenges
十分有效和实际的方式
in relatively stable environments.
这是鲍勃——还有包括我在内的 我们中许多人
It’s the way that Bob — and probably many of us, myself included —
处理我们每天面临的大多数 商业问题的办法
process most business problems we’re faced with every day.
事实上 这曾是一种良好的 商业思想模型
In fact, it was a pretty good mental model for business —
总体地
overall —
直到20世纪80年代中期
until about the mid-1980s,
全球化和科技革命、通信技术的结合
when the conjunction of globalization
使得商业变得
and a revolution in technology and telecommunications
比以往更具活力、更难以预测
made business far more dynamic and unpredictable.
那么当我们现在面临更具活力和 不可预测性的情况时
But what about those more dynamic and unpredictable situations
该怎么应对呢?
that we now increasingly face?
我认为除了力学思考法外
I think in addition to the mechanical thinking,
现在我们得掌握生物思考 的艺术
we now need to master the art of biological thinking,
就像我们的六条守则所传达的一样
as embodied by our six principles.
换言之 我们得更为谦虚和细致地考虑
In other words, we need to think more modestly and subtly
何时、怎样
about when and how
塑造而不是控制
we can shape, rather than control,
不可预测的复杂情况
unpredictable and complex situations.
这有点像扔一个球
It’s a little like the difference between throwing a ball
和放飞一只鸟的区别
and releasing a bird.
球可以直接以从上方观察的直线
The ball would head in a straight line,
飞向既定的目标
probably towards the intended target,
鸟显然不能
and the bird certainly would not.
你们怎么想呢?
So what do you think?
听起来有点不切实际 有点纯理论化了 是吗?
Sounds a little impractical, a little theoretical, perhaps?
一点也不
Not at all.
每个小型企业
Every small entrepreneurial company
都自然而然地生物化地思考和行动
naturally thinks and acts biologically.
这是为什么呢?
Why?
因为它们缺少通过自身能力
Because it lacks the resources to shape its environment
塑造周围环境的条件
through brute force.
它没有能够迎接改变的规模
It lacks the scale to buffer change,
并且它不断地在思考
and it’s constantly thinking about the tough odds
起步时渺茫的生存机会
for a start-up to survive.
现在 讽刺的是 当然
Now, the irony is, of course,
每一个大型公司都开始于 一个小型企业
that every large company started off as a small, entrepreneurial company.
但是在发展的某一阶段
But along the way somewhere,
许多公司丢失了生物化思考 和行动的能力
many have lost this ability to think and act biologically.
他们需要重拾生物化思考的能力
They need to rejuvenate their ability to think biologically
以便在今天的环境中存活并繁荣
in order to survive and thrive in today’s environment.
让我们不要再只考虑短期表现吧
So let’s not just think about short-term performance.
我所知道的每一个公司 都花大量的时间
Every company I know spends plenty of time
思考他们的战略核心:
thinking about the central question of strategy:
我们的竞争力还有多少?
How good is our competitive game?
除此之外 为什么不考虑
In addition, let’s also consider
第二个 更为生物化 而且同等重要的问题:
the second, more biological and equally important question:
我们还能坚持多久?
How long will that game last?
谢谢
Thank you very much.
[掌声]
(Applause)

发表评论

译制信息
视频概述

如果你想创建寿命长久的企业,没有比在你的免疫系统中寻求答案更好的了。和策略家Martin·Reeves一起,了解企业寿命逐渐减短的惊人数据,听讲者解释决策者应怎样将生物体中的六条法则应用到商业中来,建造坚韧的企业并在变化多端的大潮中繁荣发展。

听录译者

收集自网络

翻译译者

?

审核员

赖皮

视频来源

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=l1fodZNF1GI

相关推荐