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美国该怎样利用自己的超级大国身份

How the US should use its superpower status | Ian Bremmer

来听TED演讲的在座各位 心中想到的大都是科技话题
When you come to TEDx, you always think about technology,
世界正在改变 变的更有创造性
the world changing, becoming more innovative.
各位可能会想到无人驾驶
You think about the driverless.
现在每个人都在讨论 无人驾驶汽车
Everyone’s talking about driverless cars these days,
我也喜欢无人驾驶汽车的概念
and I love the concept of a driverless car,
但是说实话 当我坐进去时
but when I go in one, you know,
我希望它开得慢点
I want it really slow,
我希望我还是能亲自操控方向盘和刹车 只是为了以防万一
I want access to the steering wheel and the brake, just in case.
我不知道在座的各位是怎么想的至少我还没有准备好登上无人驾驶公交车
I don’t know about you, but I am not ready for a driverless bus.
我还没准备好无人驾驶的飞机
I am not ready for a driverless airplane.
那么 一个无人驾驶的世界怎么样?
How about a driverless world?
我会这样问的原因
And I ask you that
是因为我们都正逐渐融为一体
because we are increasingly in one.
本来事情不应该是这样的
It’s not supposed to be that way.
我们是全球第一的国家
We’re number one,
我们美国说一不二
the United States is large and in charge.
对于近年来的几代人而言
Americanization and globalization for the last several generations
美国化和全球化基本就是同一件事
have basically been the same thing.
对吧?不论是WTO
Right? Whether it’s the World Trade Organization
亦或是IMF、世界银行、
or it’s the IMF, the World Bank,
布莱顿森林货币协定、
the Bretton Woods Accord on currency,
它们都是美国的机构
these were American institutions,
我们的价值观、朋友、同盟、货币、标准等
our values, our friends, our allies, our money, our standards.
这就是这个世界运行的方式
That was the way the world worked.
开玩笑说 如果你想知道美国看起来是什么样的
So it’s sort of interesting, if you want to look at how the US looks,
那么这张图就是了
here it is.
这就是我们美国人对于世界如何运转的印象
This is our view of how the world is run.
奥巴马总统脚踏红地毯
President Obama has got the red carpet,
走下空军一号
he goes down Air Force One,
这看起来很美妙 让人感觉很舒服
and it feels pretty good, it feels pretty comfortable.
我不知道你们有多少人看过上周总统的中国之行
Well, I don’t know how many of you saw the China trip last week
与G20峰会的报导
and the G20.
天啊
Oh my God. Right?
在中国举办的全球峰会
This is how we landed
这么重要的场合这就是我们总统着陆的方式?
for the most important meeting of the world’s leaders in China.
国家安全顾问站在柏油路面上
The National Security Advisor was actually spewing expletives
咒骂着
on the tarmac —
总统没有红地毯铺路
no red carpet,
就直接从飞机上下来
kind of left out the bottom of the plane
还和媒体还有其他人混在一起!
along with all the media and everybody else.
在稍后的G20会议中……
Later on in the G20,
好吧 这是奥巴马总统
well, there’s Obama.
[笑声]
[Laughter]
“你好 乔治”
Hi, George.
“你好 诺曼”
Hi, Norman.
他们看起来像马上就要打架了 是不是?
They look like they’re about to get into a cage match, right?
的确 他们花了90分钟讨论叙利亚的问题
And they did. It was 90 minutes long, and they talked about Syria.
这也是普京想要讨论的
That’s what Putin wanted to talk about.
他超想开战的
He’s increasingly calling the shots.
他想成为历史人物
He’s the one willing to do stuff there.
实际上他们并不互相喜欢或信任
There’s not a lot of mutual like or trust,
也不是我们美国喜欢对他指手画脚
but it’s not as if the Americans are telling him what to do.
那么全部20国在一起的时候又是什么样的?
How about when the whole 20 are getting together?
诚然 当所有领导聚在一起
Surely, when the leaders are all onstage,
美国人就会仔细观察他们的互动了
then the Americans are pulling their weight.
噢哦
Uh-oh.
[笑声]
[Laughter]
习近平看起来气色不错
Xi Jinping seems fine.
安格拉·默克尔还是老样子
Angela Merkel has — she always does —
她一直看起来就那样
that look, she always does that.
但是普京正在跟土耳其总统埃尔多安交头接耳
But Putin is telling Turkish president Erdogan what to do,
奥巴马看起来就像是在想他们两个是不是又要搞事了?
and Obama is like, what’s going on over there?
你看 问题不在G20
You see. And the problem is it’s not a G20,
真正的问题是
the problem is
我们生活在一个G0的世界中
it’s a G-Zero world that we live in,
一个没有任何一个单独的国家或联盟
a world order where there is no single country or alliance
可以担起领导全球重任的世界
that can meet the challenges of global leadership.
G20并没有什么实际用处
The G20 doesn’t work,
由我们的盟友组成的G7也成为历史了
the G7, all of our friends, that’s history.
但全球化仍在不断继续
So globalization is continuing.
商品、服务、人员和资本也在不断跨境流动
Goods and services and people and capital are moving across borders
流动的越来越快 远超从前
faster and faster than ever before,
但美国化并不是这样
but Americanization is not.
所以如果你也接受上述论点
So if I’ve convinced you of that,
那么我想在剩下的演讲时间中做两件事
I want to do two things with the rest of this talk.
一是我想和各位谈谈全球化对整个
I want to talk about the implications of that
世界的影响
for the whole world.
围绕这个主题
I’ll go around it.
然后我会再​​讨论
And then I want to talk about
身处在美国及纽约的
what we think right here
我们是怎么想的
in the United States and in New York.
为什么?这又有什么影响? 我们今天为什么会卡在这里?
So why? What are the implications. Why are we here?
我们之所以会卡在这里
Well, we’re here
是因为美国
because the United States,
花费两万亿美元去打伊拉克和阿富汗的战争
we spent two trillion dollars on wars in Iraq and Afghanistan
然后我们失败了
that were failed.
我们再也不想做这样的事情了
We don’t want to do that anymore.
我们有大量的中产和工人阶级国民
We have large numbers of middle and working classes
但他们并没有感觉到承诺中的全球化所带来的好处
that feel like they’ve not benefited from promises of globalization,
尤其他们更不想再看到战争
so they don’t want to see it particularly.
同时我们还在进行能源革命
And we have an energy revolution
使我们不再像以往那样依赖OPEC和中东的石油
where we don’t need OPEC or the Middle East the way we used to.
让我们能自给自足
We produce all that right here in the United States.
所以美国不想 再做全球安全警察
So the Americans don’t want to be the global sheriff for security
或者环球经贸的设计师
or the architect of global trade.
美国人甚至不想去当全球价值观的倡导者
The Americans don’t want to even be the cheerleader of global values.
好吧 你再去看欧洲
Well, then you look to Europe,
我们在大西洋对岸的
and the most important alliance in the world
最重要的盟友
has been the transatlantic relationship.
它自二战以来正每况愈下
But it is now weaker than it has been at any point since World War II,
危机频发 英国脱欧
all of the crises, the Brexit conversations,
法俄冲突
the hedging going on between the French and the Russians,
还有德国-土耳其冲突和英中之间的不愉快
or the Germans and the Turks, or the Brits and the Chinese.
中国的确想更进一步的领导全球
China does want to do more leadership.
他们真的有在想 但只想在经济领域上
They do, but only in the economic sphere,
中国更加希望的是 自己的价值观、标准和货币
and they want their own values, standards, currency,
能够与美国竞争
in competition with that of the US.
俄罗斯确实想更有领袖地位
The Russians want to do more leadership.
看看他们在乌克兰
You see that in Ukraine,
以及波罗的海诸国还有中东所做的
in the Baltic states, in the Middle East,
但那些都和美国无关
but not with the Americans.
他们想独树一帜 独掌大权
They want their own preferences and order.
这就是为什么我们在现在的位置
That’s why we are where we are.
所以接下来世界会发生什么?
So what happens going forward?
我们先从简单的开始讨论
Let’s start easy,
就从中东开始吧
with the Middle East.
[笑声]
[Laughter]
你们知道的 我没有把所有的都包括进来
You know, I left a little out,
但你们可以有个大体的概念
but you get the general idea.
你看 有三个原因
Look, there are three reasons
说明了中东过去 曾经稳定的原因 是不是?
why the Middle East has had stability such as it is. Right?
一是他们当时愿意
One is because there was a willingness to provide
让美国及其盟友 提供一定程度的军事安全保障
some level of military security by the US and allies.
第二 中东遍地黄金
Number two, it was easy to take a lot of cheap money out of the ground
因为石油曾相当昂贵
because oil was expensive.
第三点:
And number three
不论中东的领导人是多么差劲 当地人口数量却相对稳定
was no matter how bad the leaders were, the populations were relatively quiescent.
他们不能、也不想
They didn’t have the ability, and many didn’t have the will
互相敌对
to really rise up against.
但 对于一个G0的世界 我可以说:
Well, I can tell you, in a G-Zero world,
这三个理由正逐渐失效
all three of those things are increasingly not true,
所以失败国家、恐怖主义、
and so failed states,
难民还有其他事故开始出现
terrorism, refugees and the rest.
然而整个中东四分五裂了么?
Does the entire Middle East fall apart?
不是 库尔德人会做的更好 伊拉克 以色列 伊朗也会逐渐好起来
No, the Kurds will do better, and Iraq, Israel, Iran over time.
但总体上说 中东不是很好
But generally speaking, it’s not a good look.
好 那普京这家伙如何呢?
OK, how about this guy?
他一手烂牌却打得非常漂亮
He’s playing a poor hand very well.
虽然毫无疑问他好高骛远
There’s no question he’s hitting above his weight.
但长远来看 ——我不是说他真的是好高骛远
But long term — I didn’t mean that.
——从长期而言
But long term, long term,
如果你认为俄罗斯是被 美国和欧盟所挑衅
if you think that the Russians
让北约组织扩军到 他们的国界附近
were antagonized by the US and Europe expanding NATO right up to their borders
当时我们说他们不会这样做
when we said they weren’t going to,
且有欧盟在蚕食他们
and the EU encroaching them,
只要等中国花数千亿美元
just wait until the Chinese put hundreds of billions of dollars
投入到俄罗斯周边 他们认为拥有影响力的国家
in every country around Russia they thought they had influence in.
中国就能从中获益 而俄罗斯只能捡剩下的
The Chinese are going to dominate it. The Russians are picking up the crumbs.
在这个G0的世界中 普京先生未来10年会非常难熬
In a G-Zero world, this is going to be a very tense 10 years for Mr. Putin.
这不全是坏事 对么?
It’s not all bad. Right?
亚洲看起来就好多了
Asia actually looks a lot better.
那里有真正的领导者
There are real leaders across Asia,
那边有着相当的政治稳定
they have a lot of political stability.
而且保持了一段时间
They’re there for a while.
印度的莫迪总理、
Mr. Modi in India,
安倍晋三 可能要取得第三个任期的
Mr. Abe, who is probably about to get a third term written in
日本自由民主党党魁
in the Liberal Democratic Party in Japan,
当然还有习近平 他正在巩固自己的权利
of course Xi Jinping who is consolidating enormous power,
他是自毛泽东以来
the most powerful leader in China
最具影响力的中国领导人
since Mao.
他们领导着三个最重要的亚洲经济体
Those are the three most important economies in Asia.
但是现在 亚洲也没法独善其身:
Now look, there are problems in Asia.
我们可以看到南海冲突频发
We see the sparring over the South China Sea.
可以看到朝鲜的金正日在几天前
We see that Kim Jong Un, just in the last couple of days,
又一次测试了新核武器
tested yet another nuclear weapon.
但是这些亚洲领导人认为
But the leaders in Asia do not feel the need
他们无需发挥领导力
to wave the flag,
去排除外部势力
to go xenophobic,
他们坐视事态扩大
to actually allow escalation
在面对跨国政治和边境冲突的时候
of the geopolitical and cross-border tensions.
他们着眼于长期经济稳定与增长
They want to focus on long-term economic stability and growth.
而这也正是他们正在做的
And that’s what they’re actually doing.
转到欧洲
Let’s turn to Europe.
欧洲看起来似乎被现在的国际环境吓到了
Europe does look a little scared in this environment.
所以那些发生在中东的事情
So much of what is happening in the Middle East
毫不夸张地说 已经波及到了欧洲边境
is washing up quite literally onto European shores.
你们可以看到欧洲人对英国脱欧 还有民粹主义的关注
You see Brexit and you see the concerns of populism
已经遍及了欧洲全境
across all of the European states.
要我说 长期而言
Let me tell you that over the long term,
在G0的世界中
in a G-Zero world,
欧洲的扩张太快了
European expansion will be seen to have gone too far.
欧洲现在十分靠近俄罗斯和中东
Europe went right up to Russia, went right down to the Middle East,
如果这个世界真的变的更加扁平化及美国化
and if the world were truly becoming more flat and more Americanized,
这不值一提
that would be less of a problem,
但对于G0的世界来说
but in a G-Zero world, those countries nearest Russia
那些紧邻俄罗斯和中东的国家
and nearest the Middle East
他们实际上与欧洲核心 有着不同的经济体量、
actually have different economic capabilities,
不同的社会稳定因素、
different social stability
以及不同的政治观点与系统
and different political preferences and systems than core Europe.
所以欧盟确实可以在G7的帮助下
So Europe was able to truly expand
进行扩张
under the G7,
但是对于G0 欧洲会重新缩小
but under the G-Zero, Europe will get smaller.
围绕着德法的欧洲核心国家
Core Europe around Germany and France and others
能依旧正常运行 依旧稳定、富裕、互相补益
will still work, be functional, stable, wealthy, integrated.
但那些周边国家
But the periphery,
就像希腊、土耳其还有其他的一些
countries like Greece and Turkey and others,
可能就会很糟糕了
will not look that good at all.
拉丁美洲 民粹主义的乐园
Latin America, a lot of populism,
经济被搞得差强人意
made the economies not go so well.
几十年间他们都对美国阳奉阴违
They had been more opposed to the United States for decades.
但是现在 他们逐渐地靠拢回来了
Increasingly, they’re coming back.
我们可以看到阿根廷的变化
We see that in Argentina.
看到古巴的开放
We see it with the openness in Cuba.
看到委内瑞拉的马杜罗下台
We will see it in Venezuela when Maduro falls.
看到发生在巴西的弹劾
We will see it in Brazil after the impeachment
并最终看到一个新的合法总统当选
and when we finally see a new legitimate president elected there.
唯一顽固不化的地方
The only place you see that is moving in another direction
是墨西哥 总统佩尼亚·尼托正失去民意
is the unpopularity of Mexican president Peña Nieto.
在接下来的几年中 你将看到
There you could actually see a slip away from the United States
他们逐渐背弃美国
over the coming years.
尽管美国大选会对那里会产生巨大的影响
The US election matters a lot on that one, too.
[笑声]
[Laughter]
非洲
Africa, right?
很多人说接下来十年是非洲的十年
A lot of people have said it’s going to be Africa’s decade, finally.
在这个G0的世界中 对少数非洲国家而言
In a G-Zero world, it is absolutely an amazing time
这无疑会是一个令人惊奇的时代
for a few African countries,
那些“少数国家”施政良好 同时城市化进程较快
those governed well with a lot of urbanization,
还有大量富有智慧的国民 那里妇女真正地有活可干
a lot of smart people, women really getting into the workforce,
创业也蓬勃兴起
entrepreneurship taking off.
但对于大多数非洲国家
But for most of the countries in Africa,
这无疑是场冒险:
it’s going to be a lot more dicey:
他们要面对极端气候环境、
extreme climate conditions,
来自伊斯兰教和基督教的激进主义
radicalism both from Islam and also Christianity,
乏善可陈的管理、
very poor governance,
无法御敌于国门之外、 甚至大量强行吞并……
borders you can’t defend, lots of forced migration.
那些国家可能从地图上消失
Those countries can fall off the map.
所以你将会看到巨大的隔阂逐渐产生
So you’re really going to see an extreme segregation going on
它横贯于非洲的胜利者与失败者之间
between the winners and the losers across Africa.
最后 让我们回归美国
Finally, back to the United States.
我们怎么看自己的国家的?
What do I think about us?
这里有大量对政治失望的人
Because there are a lot of upset people,
当然我知道不会出现在这个TEDx会场里
not here at TEDx, I know,
但是他们遍布美国 天啊
but in the United States, my God,
在15个月的竞选长跑后 我们会变的厌烦
after 15 months of campaigning, we should be upset.
我能理解这个心情
I understand that.
但是很多人失望地说:“华盛顿变差了”
But a lot of people are upset because they say, “Washington’s broken,
“我们不相信当权者”“我们痛恨媒体”
we don’t trust the establishment, we hate the media.”
哎 即便是像我这样的全球主义者也只能无奈面对
Heck, even globalists like me are taking it on the chin.
注意!我认为我们必须认清
Look, I do think we have to recognize,
我们与和我们一同野营的伙伴们
my fellow campers,
当一同被某头危机巨熊追逐着的时候
that when you are being chased by the bear,
我们不需要跑过那头巨熊
in the global context, you need not outrun the bear,
只需要跑过那些伙伴 让他们成为被吃掉的就好了
you need to only outrun your fellow campers.
[笑声]
[Laughter]
现在 我刚刚跟你们分析过
Now, I just told you
我们那些伙伴的糟糕情况
about our fellow campers.
不是么?从这个角度来看
Right? And from that perspective,
我们的情况还可以
we look OK.
很多人在现在都说
A lot of people in that context say,
“我们去赚得美元”“我们去纽约买房”
“Let’s go dollar. Let’s go New York real estate.
“我们去把我们的孩子送进美国的大学”
Let’s send our kids to American universities.”
众所周知 我们的邻居都很出色:
You know, our neighbors are awesome:
加拿大 墨西哥 还有两滩海水
Canada, Mexico and two big bodies of water.
你们知不知道土耳其做梦都想 拥有这样的邻居?
You know how much Turkey would love to have neighbors like that?
他们确实都是好邻居!
Those are awesome neighbors.
在美国 恐怖主义确实是个问题
Terrorism is a problem in the United States.
任谁都知道身处纽约的我们知道这些
God knows we know it here in New York.
但对于欧洲而言这个问题更严重
But it’s a much bigger problem in Europe than the US.
和欧洲比起来
It’s a much bigger problem in the Middle East
中东问题更大了
than it is in Europe.
这其中有大尺度的因素
These are factors of large magnitude.
我们刚刚接受了一万名叙利亚难民 我们就对此抱怨不断
We just accepted 10,000 Syrian refugees, and we’re complaining bitterly about it.
知道为什么吗? 因为他们没有办法游到这里
You know why? Because they can’t swim here.
对么?我的意思是 土耳其会很乐于只接收一万名难民
Right? I mean, the Turks would love to have only 10,000 Syrian refugees.
对于约旦人、德国人和英国人也是 不是么?
The Jordanians, the Germans, the Brits. Right?
可惜对他们来说情况并非如此
That’s not the situation.
美国现在就是这样
That’s the reality of the United States.
现在 一切似乎都很好
Now, that sounds pretty good.
那么接下来就轮到挑战了
Here’s the challenge.
在这个G0的世界中 你要领导世界的方式
In a G-Zero world, the way you lead
就是要当楷模
is by example.
如果我们知道 我们不想再担任世界警察角色
If we know we don’t want to be the global cop anymore,
不会再担任全球贸易的建筑师
if we know we’re not going to be the architect of global trade,
也不再担任全球价值观倡导者的角色
we’re not going to be the cheerleader of global values,
我们的行事作风要变一变了
we’re not going to do it the way we used to,
21世纪正在改变
the 21st century is changing,
我们需要担起楷模——那是多么多令人向往
we need to lead by example — be so compelling
其他国人都仍将引以为豪
that all these other people are going to still say,
并不是因为他们跑的快
it’s not just they’re faster campers.
即使巨熊不再追着我们 这里仍是个好地方
Even when the bear is not chasing us, this is a good place to be.
我们想要效仿他们
We want to emulate them.
今年的选举 并没有一个很好的候选人
The election process this year is not proving a good option
能够引领美国
for leading by example.
希拉里·克林顿说 美国会像90年代那样
Hillary Clinton says it’s going to be like the ’90s.
我们依旧会是价值观引领者
We can still be that cheerleader on values.
我们依旧会是是全球贸易的建筑师
We can still be the architect of global trade.
我们依旧会是世界警察
We can still be the global sheriff.
而唐纳德·特朗普想把我们带回30年代
And Donald Trump wants to bring us back to the ’30s.
他说:“我们的路或者高速公路 你不高兴也得忍耐” 不是么?
He’s saying, “Our way or the highway. You don’t like it, lump it.” Right?
他们两个都没有认清G0世界的根本真理
Neither are recognizing a fundamental truth of the G-Zero,
这真理就算美国也没有否认:
which is that even though the US is not in decline,
客观而言一切正变得更加困难
it is getting objectively harder
不论是对他国的意志施加影响
for the Americans to impose their will,
还是在世界秩序上
even have great influence,
取得更大的影响力
on the global order.
我们真的有准备好 去作为榜样引领世界了么?
Are we prepared to truly lead by example?
我们应该如何去修正这些错误?
What would we have to do to fix this
在11月大选之后?
after November,
在新一任总统进入白宫之后?
after the next president comes in?
我们必须面对另一个危机来迫使我们作出反应
Well, either we have to have another crisis that forces us to respond.
一场全民批驳总统的大失望可以做到
A depression would do that.
或者再一次的全球金融危机也行
Another global financial crisis could do this.
求上帝原谅 再来一次9.11事件也可以
God forbid, another 9/11 could do that.
或者 如果没有危机发生
Or, absent crisis,
我们需要认清空洞化、不平等以及新的挑战
we need to see that the hollowing out, the inequality, the challenges
正逐渐在美国生根发芽
that are growing and growing in the United States,
我们有足够的紧迫感吗?
are themselves urgent enough
足够到迫使我们的领导人做出改变
to force our leaders to change,
民意的声音可以迫使他们做出改变
and that we have those voices.
通过我们每个人的电话
Through our cell phones, individually,
我们用自己的声音去迫使他们做出改变
we have those voices to compel them to change.
当然 还有第三种选择
There is, of course, a third choice,
也是最有可能的选择
perhaps the most likely one,
而那个选择就是 我们什么都不做
which is that we do neither of those things,
然后 四年后你们会邀请我回来
and in four years time you invite me back,
我就再念一遍稿子
and I will give this speech yet again.
谢谢 非常感谢!
Thank you very, very much.
[掌声]
[Applause]

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视频概述

美国该怎样利用自己的超级大国身份去引领世界。

听录译者

收集自网络

翻译译者

B11101001

审核员

瞌睡虫儿

视频来源

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AoAbPIbGLUo

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