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雷·达利欧:经济机器是怎样运行的?

How The Economic Machine Works by Ray Dalio

How the economic machine works, in 30 minutes.
30分钟告诉你 经济机器是怎样运行的
The economy works like a simple machine.
经济就像一部简单机器那样运行
But many people don’t understand it
但是很多人不懂得这点
or they don’t agree on how it works
或是对经济的运行方式持有不同观点
and this has led to a lot of needless economic suffering.
于是导致了很多不必要的经济损失
I feel a deep sense of responsibility to share
我深感有责任与大家分享
my simple but practical economic template.
我这简单但实用的经济分析模式
Though it’s unconventional,
虽然它不符合常规传统经济学的观点
it has helped me to anticipate and sidestep the global financial crisis,
但是它帮助我预测和躲避了全球金融危机
and has worked well for me for over 30 years.
30多年来对我一直很有用
Let’s begin.
我们开始吧
Though the economy might seem complex,
虽然经济看起来可能有些复杂
it works in a simple, mechanical way.
但它其实是以一种简单机械的方式运行
It’s made up of a few simple parts and a lot of simple transactions that are repeated over and over again a zillion times.
经济由几个简单的部分 和无数次重复的简单交易组成
These transactions are above all else driven by human nature,
这些交易首先是由人的天性所驱动
and they create 3 main forces that drive the economy.
进而形成了三股力量去驱动经济的发展
Number 1: Productivity growth
第一:生产率的提高
Number 2: The Short term debt cycle
第二:短期债务周期
and Number 3: The Long term debt cycle
第三:长期债务周期
We’ll look at these three forces and how laying them on top of each other
我们来谈一下这三股动力以及如何把它们结合起来
creates a good template for tracking economic movements
得出一个良好的模型 便于我们跟踪经济走势
and figuring out what’s happening now.
和理解当前正在发生的事情
Let’s start with the simplest part of the economy:
我们从经济中最简单的部分开始:
Transactions.
交易
An economy is simply the sum of the transactions that make it up
经济不过是无数交易构成的总和
and a transaction is a very simple thing.
而且交易是一件非常简单的事情
You make transactions all the time.
交易时时刻刻都在发生
Every time you buy something you create a transaction.
你的每一次购买都是一笔交易
Each transaction consists of a buyer exchanging money or credit
在每次交易中 买方使用货币或信用
with a seller for goods, services or financial assets.
向卖方交换商品 服务或金融资产
Credit spends just like money,
信用在使用时和货币一样
so adding together the money spent and the amount of credit spent,
因此把花费的货币和信用加在一起
you can know the total spending.
就可以得到支出总额
The total amount of spending drives the economy.
支出总额驱动着经济发展
If you divide the amount spent by the quantity sold,
如果用支出总额除以销量
you get the price.
就可以得到价格
And that’s it. That’s a transaction.
就这么简单 这就是交易
It is the building block of the economic machine.
交易是经济机器的最基本零件
All cycles and all forces in an economy are driven by transactions.
所有的经济周期和动力都是交易所驱动的
So, if we can understand transactions,
所以如果我们理解了交易
we can understand the whole economy.
就可以理解整个经济
A market consists of all the buyers and all the sellers
一个市场由买卖同一种商品的
making transactions for the same thing.
所有买方和卖方组成
For example, there is a wheat market, a car market,
例如 有小麦市场 汽车市场
a stock market and markets for millions of things.
股票市场和卖各种商品的市场
An economy consists of all of the transactions in all of its markets.
经济就是由所有市场中的全部交易构成
If you add up the total spending and the total quantity sold in all of the markets,
如果你得到了所有市场的总支出和总销量
you have everything you need to know to understand the economy.
你就拥有了解经济市场运行的所有信息
It’s just that simple.
就这么简单
People, businesses, banks and governments
个人 企业 银行和政府
all engage in transactions the way I just described:
都在以我刚才描述的方式从事交易
exchanging money and credit for goods, services and financial assets.
用货币和信用交换商品 服务及金融资产
The biggest buyer and seller is the government,
政府是最大的买家和卖家
which consists of two important parts:
政府由两个重要的部分组成:
a Central Government that collects taxes and spends money
一个是征税和花钱的中央政府
and a Central Bank, which is different from other buyers and sellers
另一个是中央银行 央行不同于其他买方和卖方
because it controls the amount of money and credit in the economy.
因为它控制着经济中的货币和信贷数量
It does this by influencing interest rates and printing new money.
央行通过影响利率和发行更多货币来实现这种控制
For these reasons, as we’ll see,
正因如此 我们接下来会看到
the Central Bank is an important player in the flow of Credit.
中央银行在信贷流通中起着非常重要的作用
I want you to pay attention to credit.
请诸位重视信贷
Credit is the most important part of the economy,
信贷是经济最重要的组成部分
and probably the least understood.
但可能也是人们最不了解的部分
It is the most important part
之所以它是最重要的部分
because it is the biggest and most volatile part.
是因为它是经济中最大 最为变幻莫测的部分
Just like buyers and sellers go to the market to make transactions,
就像买方和卖方在市场中进行交易
so do lenders and borrowers.
贷款人和借款人也无两样
Lenders usually want to make their money into more money
贷款人通常希望自己的钱生出更多的钱
and borrowers usually want to buy something they can’t afford,
而借款人则想购买到自己无法负担的东西
like a house or car or they want to invest in something like starting a business.
比如房子 汽车或者进行投资 比如开办企业
Credit can help both lenders and borrowers get what they want.
信贷可以同时满足借贷双方的需要
Borrowers promise to repay the amount they borrow, called the principal,
借款方承诺偿还借款 即本金
plus an additional amount, called interest.
并支付一笔额外的钱 即利息
When interest rates are high, there is less borrowing because it’s expensive.
当利率高时 借贷会减少 因为贷款变得昂贵
When interest rates are low, borrowing increases because it’s cheaper.
当利率低时 借贷则会增加 因为贷款变得更加便宜
When borrowers promise to repay
当借款方承诺偿还借款
and lenders believe them, credit is created.
且贷款方相信这一承诺时 信贷就产生了
Any two people can agree to create credit out of thin air!
任何两人都可以通过协定凭空产生信贷!
That seems simple enough but credit is tricky
信贷看似简单 实则复杂
because it has different names.
因为它有不同的名字
As soon as credit is created,
一旦信贷产生
it immediately turns into debt.
它就立马转变为债务
Debt is both an asset to the lender,
债务是贷款方的资产
and a liability to the borrower.
也是借款方的负债
In the future, when the borrower repays the loan, plus interest,
将来 当借方偿还贷款和利息时
the asset and liability disappear
资产和负债都会消失
and the transaction is settled.
交易得以完成
So, why is credit so important?
那么 信贷为何如此重要呢?
Because when a borrower receives credit,
因为当借款人收到信贷时
he is able to increase his spending.
他就可以增加自己的支出
And remember, spending drives the economy.
我们要记住 支出驱动着经济增长
This is because one person’s spending is another person’s income.
这是因为一个人的支出是另一个人的收入
Think about it, every dollar you spend, someone else earns.
想一想 你每花一块钱 另一个人就挣了一块钱
and every dollar you earn, someone else has spent.
而你每挣一块钱 必定有别人花了一块钱
So when you spend more, someone else earns more.
所以你花得越多 别人就挣得越多
When someone’s income rises
当一个人的收入增加后
it makes lenders more willing to lend him money
贷款人就更愿意借钱给他
because now he’s more worthy of credit.
因为他的信用度提高了
A creditworthy borrower has two things:
信用良好的借款人具备两个条件
the ability to repay and collateral.
偿还能力和抵押物
Having a lot of income in relation to his debt gives him the ability to repay.
收入债务比大 借款人就具备偿还能力
In the event that he can’t repay,
如果他不能偿还借款
he has valuable assets to use as collateral that can be sold.
借款人可以用具有出售价值的资产作为抵押物
This makes lenders feel comfortable lending him money.
这样贷款人会乐意借钱给他
So increased income allows increased borrowing
所以收入增长会促进借贷增长
which allows increased spending.
从而增加支出
And since one person’s spending is another person’s income,
由于一个人的支出是另一个人的收入
this leads to more increased borrowing and so on.
这就导致借贷进一步增长 并不断循环
This self-reinforcing pattern leads to economic growth
这种自我驱动模式会促进经济增长
and is why we have Cycles.
也因此产生了经济周期
In a transaction,
在一笔交易中
you have to give something in order to get something
要得到某样东西就必须付出另一样东西
and how much you get depends on how much you produce
长期来看 你得到多少取决你生产多少
over time we learned
随着我们学识见长
and that accumulated knowledge raises are living standards
知识的积累会提高我们的生活水平
we call this productivity growth
我们称之为生产率的提高
those who were invented and hard-working
一个善于创新和勤奋的人
raise their productivity and their living standards faster
将比那些自满和懒惰的人
than those who are complacent and lazy,
更快地提高生产率和生活水平
but that isn’t necessarily true over the short run.
但这在短期内不一定能体现出来
Productivity matters most in the long run,
生产率在长期内最关键
but credit matters most in the short run.
但信贷在短期内最重要
This is because productivity growth doesn’t fluctuate much,
这是因为生产率的提高不会剧烈波动
so it’s not a big driver of economic swings.
因此它不是经济起伏的重要驱动力
Debt is — because it allows us to consume more than we produce when we acquire it
但债务却是 因为我们能够通过借债让消费超过产出
and it forces us to consume less than we produce when we pay it back.
但是在还债时 不得不让消费低于产出
Debt swings occur in two big cycles.
债务量的波动有两大周期
One takes about 5 to 8 years and the other takes about 75 to 100 years.
一个周期持续约5到8年 另一个持续约75到100年
While most people feel the swings,
虽然大多数人能感受到波动
they typically don’t see them as cycles
但从未将它们看作周期
because they see them too up close — day by day, week by week.
因为他们观察的时间跨度太短 日复一日 周复一周
In this chapter we are going to step back and look at these three big forces
我们将在本章讨论这三股主要动力
and how they interact to make up our experiences.
观察它们如何相互作用 和它们在日常经济中的表现
As mentioned, swings around the line are not due to
如上所述 经济沿着曲线上下起伏
how much innovation or hard work there is,
不是取决于人们多么善于创新或勤奋工作
they’re primarily due to how much credit there is.
而主要是看信贷总量
Let’s for a second imagine an economy without credit.
我们想象一个没有信贷的经济
In this economy, the only way I can increase my spending
在这种经济中 增加支出的唯一方法
is to increase my income,
是增加收入
which requires me to be more productive and do more work.
因此需要提高生产率和工作量
Increased productivity is the only way for growth.
提高生产率是经济增长的唯一途径
Since my spending is another person’s income,
由于我的支出是另一个人的收入
the economy grows every time I or anyone else is more productive.
当我或者另一个人的生产率提高时经济就会增长
If we follow the transactions and play this out,
如果我们观察各种交易加以总结
we see a progression like the productivity growth line.
就会发现一条类似于生产力增长轨迹的渐近线
But because we borrow, we have cycles.
但因为我们借债 所以产生了周期
This isn’t due to any laws or regulation,
原因并不是任何法律和规章
it’s due to human nature and the way that credit works.
而是由于人的天性和信贷运作方式
Think of borrowing as simply a way of pulling spending forward.
借债不过是提前消费
In order to buy something you can’t afford,
为了购买现在支付不起的东西
you need to spend more than you make.
你需要超支消费
To do this, you essentially need to borrow from your future self.
超支消费实质上是向未来的自己借钱
In doing so you create a time in the future
你给自己设定了一个未来的时间
that you need to spend less than you make
到那个时候 你的支出必须少于收入
in order to pay it back.
以便偿还债务
It very quickly resembles a cycle.
这样马上就形成了一个周期
Basically, anytime you borrow you create a cycle.
通常 你借一次钱就制造了一个周期
This is as true for an individual as it is for the economy.
个人如此 经济运行也如此
This is why understanding credit is so important
这就是为什么必须理解信贷
because it sets into motion a mechanical,
因为信贷触发了一系列机械的
predictable series of events that will happen in the future.
可以预料的将在未来发生的事件
This makes credit different from money.
这就是信贷不同于货币的地方
Money is what you settle transactions with.
完成交易需要使用货币
When you buy a beer from a bartender with cash,
当你用现金在酒吧买一瓶啤酒时
the transaction is settled immediately.
交易立刻就完成了
But when you buy a beer with credit,
但是当你用信用买啤酒时
it’s like starting a bar tab.
比如赊账
You’re saying you promise to pay in the future.
你相当于承诺以后会支付啤酒的钱
Together you and the bartender create an asset and a liability.
你和酒吧一起创造了一份资产和一笔负债
You just created credit. Out of thin air.
你们就这样凭空制造了信贷
It’s not until you pay the bar tab later
只有等你之后付了酒吧的账单
that the asset and liability disappear,
这份资产和债务才会消失
the debt goes away and the transaction is settled.
负债消除 交易才会完成
The reality is that most of what people call money is actually credit.
现实中大部分所谓的钱实则是信贷
The total amount of credit in the United States is about $ 50 trillion
美国的信贷总额大约为50万亿美金
and the total amount of money is only about $3 trillion.
而货币总额只有约3万亿美金
Remember, in an economy without credit:
记住 在没有信贷的经济运行中
the only way to increase your spending is to produce more.
增加支出的唯一方式是增加生产
But in an economy with credit,
但是在有信贷的经济中
you can also increase your spending by borrowing.
你也可以通过信贷来提高支出
As a result, an economy with credit has more spending
因此 有信贷的经济运行能增加支出
and allows incomes to rise faster than productivity over the short run,
使得收入增速在短期内比生产率的增速更快
but not over the long run.
但是长远来看就不是这样了
Now, don’t get me wrong,
别误解我的意思
credit isn’t necessarily something bad that just causes cycles.
信贷并不一定是件坏事 只是会导致周期性变化
It’s bad when it finances over-consumption that can’t be paid back.
信贷如果造成超过偿还能力的过度消费就是不良信贷
However, it’s good when it efficiently allocates resources and produces income
但是信贷如果高效率地分配资源和产生收入
so you can pay back the debt.
让你能够还清负债 那就是良性信贷
For example, if you borrow money to buy a big TV,
例如 如果你借钱买一个大电视
it doesn’t generate income for you to pay back the debt.
电视不会产生收益来帮你偿还负债
But, if you borrow money to buy a tractor —
但是 如果你借钱买一辆拖拉机
and that tractor let’s you harvest more crops and earn more money
拖拉机能让你收获更多庄稼 挣更多钱
then, you can pay back your debt and improve your living standards.
那么你就可以还清债务并提高生活水平
In an economy with credit,
在有信贷的经济中
we can follow the transactions and see how credit creates growth.
我们可以跟踪各种交易 观察信贷如何带来经济增长
Let me give you an example:
让我给你举个例子
Suppose you earn $100,000 a year and have no debt.
假如你年收入10万美金 没有负债
You are creditworthy enough to borrow $10,000 dollars
你的信誉很好 可以借1万美金
– say on a credit card –
例如用信用卡借
so you can spend $ 110,000 dollars
那你每年可以花11万美金
even though you only earn $100,000 dollars.
即使你的收入只有10万美金
Since your spending is another person’s income,
由于你的支出是另一个人的收入
someone is earning $110,000 dollars.
另一个人就赚了11万美金
The person earning $110,000 dollars
赚11万美金的人
with no debt can borrow $11,000 dollars,
如果没有负债 他可以借1.1万美金
so he can spend $121,000 dollars
那他可以消费12.1万美金
even though he has only earned $110,000 dollars.
虽然他只挣了11万美金
His spending is another person’s income
他的消费是另一个人的收入
and by following the transactions
我们通过跟踪各种交易
we can begin to see how this process works in a self-reinforcing pattern.
可以看到这一过程以一种自我强化的模式运作
But remember, borrowing creates cycles
但是记住 借债形成周期
and if the cycle goes up, it eventually needs to come down.
周期会上升 最终也会下降
This leads us into the Short Term Debt Cycle.
下面我们谈谈短期债务周期
As economic activity increases, we see an expansion
随着经济活动增加 于是出现了扩张
– the first phase of the short term debt cycle.
这是短期债务周期的第一阶段
Spending continues to increase and prices start to rise.
支出持续增加 价格开始上涨
This happens because the increase in spending is fueled by credit
导致支出增加的原因是信贷
– which can be created instantly out of thin air.
信贷可以随即凭空创造
When the amount of spending and incomes grow faster than the production of goods:
当支出和收入的增速超过所出售商品的生产速度
prices rise.
价格就会上涨
When prices rise, we call this inflation.
我们把价格上涨称为通货膨胀
The Central Bank doesn’t want too much inflation
中央银行不希望过多的通货膨胀
because it causes problems.
因为它会导致很多问题
Seeing prices rise, it raises interest rates.
央行在看到价格上涨时就会提高利率
With higher interest rates, fewer people can afford to borrow money.
随着利率的提高 有能力借钱的人会减少
And the cost of existing debts rises.
同时 现有债务的成本也随之上升
Think about this as the monthly payments on your credit card going up.
就等于你信用卡上的月度还款会增加
Because people borrow less and have higher debt repayments,
由于人们减少借债 还款额度增长
they have less money leftover to spend, so spending slows
剩下来用于支出的资金将会减少 因此支出速度变慢
…and since one person’s spending is another person’s income,
由于一个人的支出是另一个人的收入
incomes drop…and so on and so forth.
收入也随之下降 进而引发蝴蝶效应
When people spend less, prices go down.
由于支出减少 价格就会下跌
We call this deflation.
我们称之为通货紧缩
Economic activity decreases and we have a recession.
经济活动减少 我们会面临经济衰退
If the recession becomes too severe
如果衰退变得十分严重
and inflation is no longer a problem,
而通货膨胀问题得到解决
the central bank will lower interest rates to cause everything to pick up again.
中央银行会降低利率让一切好转
With low interest rates,
利率一降低
debt repayments are reduced and borrowing and spending pick up
偿债成本下降 借债和支出增加
and we see another expansion.
我们会看到另一次经济扩张
As you can see, the economy works like a machine.
如你所见 经济如同一部机器一样运转
In the short term debt cycle,
在短期债务周期里
spending is constrained only by the willingness of
限制支出的唯一因素是
lenders and borrowers to provide and receive credit.
借贷双方的借款和贷款意愿
When credit is easily available, there’s an economic expansion.
当信贷易于获得时 经济就会扩张
When credit isn’t easily available, there’s a recession.
当信贷不易获得时 经济就会衰退
And note that this cycle is controlled primarily by the central bank.
注意 这个周期主要受制于中央银行
The short term debt cycle typically lasts 5 – 8 years
短期债务周期通常持续5到8年
and happens over and over again for decades.
并在数十年间反复出现
But notice that the bottom and top of each cycle finish
但要注意 在每个周期的低谷和高峰后
with more growth than the previous cycle and with more debt.
经济增长和债务都超过了前一个周期
Why?
为什么会这样?
Because people push it
这是人促成的
— they have an inclination to borrow and spend more instead of paying back debt.
人们倾向于借更多钱和花更多钱 而不喜欢偿还债务
It’s human nature.
这是人之本性
Because of this, over long periods of time,
因此 在长期内
debts rise faster than incomes
债务增加速度快于收入
creating the Long Term Debt Cycle.
从而形成长期债务周期
Despite people becoming more indebted, lenders even more freely extend credit.
尽管人们债务增加 但贷款人会提供更宽松的信贷条件
Why?
为什么?
Because everybody thinks things are going great!
因为大家都以为形势大好!
People are just focusing on what’s been happening lately.
人们只关注近期的发生情况
And what has been happening lately?
那最近发生了什么呢?
Incomes have been rising!
收入一直在增加!
Asset values are going up!
资产在增值!
The stock market roars!
股票市场欣欣向荣!
It’s a boom!
一片繁荣景象!
It pays to buy goods, services, and financial assets with borrowed money!
用借来的钱购买商品 服务和金融资产很划算!
When people do a lot of that, we call it a bubble.
当人们过度消费时 便会产生泡沫
So even though debts have been growing,
因此 尽管债务一直在增加
incomes have been growing nearly as fast to offset them.
但收入几乎同速增长 从而抵消负债
Let’s call the ratio of debt-to-income the debt burden.
我们称债务收入比为债务负担
So long as incomes continue to rise,
只要收入持续增长
the debt burden stays manageable.
债务负担就还在可控范围
At the same time asset values soar.
但同时资产价值急升
People borrow huge amounts of money to buy assets as investments
人们借大量的钱购买资产作为投资
causing their prices to rise even higher.
从而导致资产的价格更高
People feel wealthy.
人们觉得自己富有
So even with the accumulation of lots of debt,
尽管积累了大量债务
rising incomes and asset values
收入和资产价值的上升
help borrowers remain creditworthy for a long time.
帮助借款人在长期内保持着良好的信用度
But this obviously can not continue forever.
但是这种情况不可能永久持续下去
And it doesn’t.
也确实没有永久持续
Over decades, debt burdens slowly increase
数十年来 债务负担慢慢增长
creating larger and larger debt repayments.
导致偿贷成本越来越高
At some point, debt repayments start growing faster than incomes
到一定时候 偿债成本的增速超过收入
forcing people to cut back on their spending.
迫使人们缩减支出
And since one person’s spending is another person’s income,
由于一人的支出即另一人的收入
incomes begin to go down…
收入开始下降
…which makes people less creditworthy causing borrowing to go down.
导致人们信誉下降 致使借贷减少
Debt repayments continue to rise
偿债成本持续增长
which makes spending drop even further…
导致支出进一步减少
…and the cycle reverses itself.
周期开始逆转
This is the long term debt peak.
这时到达长期债务顶峰
Debt burdens have simply become too big.
债务负担变得过重
For the United States, Europe and much of the rest of the world
美国 欧洲和世界上的很多地区
this happened in 2008.
在2008年发生了这一情况
It happened for the same reason it happened in Japan in 1989
由于同样的原因 1989年日本也发生了债务危机
and in the United States back in 1929.
1929年美国发生了债务危机
Now the economy begins Deleveraging.
现在经济进入去杠杆化时期
In a deleveraging, people cut spending,
在去杠杆化过程中 人们缩减开支
incomes fall, credit disappears,
收入下降 信贷消失
assets prices drop, banks get squeezed,
资产贬值 银行发生挤兑
the stock market crashes, social tensions rise
股票市场崩溃 社会恐慌上升
and the whole thing starts to feed on itself the other way.
整个过程开始下滑 并开始恶性循环
As incomes fall and debt repayments rise, borrowers get squeezed.
随着收入下降和偿债成本增加 借款人倍感拮据
No longer creditworthy, credit dries up
随着信用消失 信贷枯竭
and borrowers can no longer borrow enough money
借款人再也无法借到足够的钱
to make their debt repayments.
来还清他们的债务
Scrambling to fill this hole, borrowers are forced to sell assets.
为了填补这个窟窿 借款人被迫变卖资产
The rush to sell assets floods the market
在支出下降的同时
as the same time the spending falls, this is when the stock market collapses,
出售热潮使市场充斥待售资产 这时股票市场暴跌
the real estate market tanks and banks get into trouble.
房地产市场一蹶不振 银行陷入困境
As asset prices drop,
随着资产贬值
the value of the collateral borrowers can put up drops.
借款人提供的抵押物的价值下降
This makes borrowers even less creditworthy.
这让借款人的信誉更差
People feel poor.
人们觉得自己很穷
Credit rapidly disappears.
信贷快速消失
Less spending › less income › less wealth › less credit › less borrowing and so on.
支出减少>收入减少>财富减少>信贷减少>借贷等等随之减少
It’s a vicious cycle.
这是一个恶性循环
This appears similar to a recession but the difference here
这看上去和经济衰退相似 但区别在于
is that interest rates can’t be lowered to save the day.
不可以通过降低利率来解决问题
In a recession, lowering interest rates works to stimulate the borrowing.
经济衰退时 降低利率可以刺激借款
However, in a deleveraging, lowering interest rates doesn’t work
然而在去杠杆化过程中 利率已经很低
because interest rates are already low and soon hit 0 % –
并且接近于0 从而丧失刺激功能
so the stimulation ends.
因此降低利率不起作用
Interest rates in the United States hit 0 % during the deleveraging of the 1930s
美国的利率在1930年去杠杆化期间下降到0%
and again in 2008.
2008年也是如此
The difference between a recession and a deleveraging
经济衰退和去杠杆化的区别在于
is that in a deleveraging borrowers’ debt burdens have simply gotten too big
去杠杆化时借款人的债务负担极大
and can’t be relieved by lowering interest rates.
已无法通过降低利率来缓解
Lenders realize that debts have become too large to ever be fully paid back.
贷款人意识到债务太多 借款人不能全部还清
Borrowers have lost their ability to repay and their collateral has lost value.
借款人已经没有能力偿还 抵押物也失去了价值
They feel crippled by the debt –
他们觉得自己受到了债务的极大伤害
they don’t even want more!
不想再借入更多债务!
Lenders stop lending. Borrowers stop borrowing.
贷款人停止贷款 借款人停止借款
Think of the economy as being not-creditworthy, just like an individual.
整个经济体和个人一样 都失去了信用度
So what do you do about a deleveraging?
那应该怎样应对去杠杆化呢?
The problem is debt burdens are too high and they must come down.
问题是债务负担太大 必须减轻
There are four ways this can happen.
为此有四种办法
1. people, businesses, and governments cut their spending.
1. 个人 企业和政府削减开支
2. debts are reduced through defaults and restructurings.
2. 通过违约和调整结构减轻债务
3. wealth is redistributed from the’haves’ to the’have nots’.
3. 从“富”人手里重新分配财富给“穷”人
and finally, 4. the central bank prints new money.
4. 最后 中央银行发行更多货币
These 4 ways have happened in every deleveraging in modern history.
这四种办法被用于现代历史的每一个去杠杆化过程
英国
日本
西班牙和意大利
Usually, spending is cut first.
通常 第一个措施为削减开支
As we just saw, people, businesses, and even governments tighten their belts and
正如我们刚看到的 个人 企业和政府都勒紧裤腰带
cut their spending so that they can pay down their debt.
削减开支来偿还债务
This is often referred to as austerity.
这通常被称为紧缩
When borrowers stop taking on new debts,
当借款人不再借入新债务
and start paying down old debts,
开始偿还旧债务时
you might expect the debt burden to decrease.
你可能以为债务负担会减轻
But the opposite happens!
但事与愿违!
Because spending is cut and one man’s spending is another man’s income –
因为支出削减 一人的支出即另一人的收入
it causes incomes to fall.
这会导致收入下降
They fall faster than debts are repaid
而且收入下降速度比债务偿还速度要快
and the debt burden actually gets worse.
因此债务负担实际上更为沉重
As we’ve seen, this cut in spending is deflationary and painful.
我们已经看到 削减支出的做法会带来通货紧缩和疼痛
Businesses are forced to cut costs…
企业不得不削减开销
which means less jobs and higher unemployment.
这意味着工作机会减少 失业率上升
This leads to the next step: debts must be reduced!
这导致下一步:必须减少债务!
Many borrowers find themselves unable to repay their loans
很多借款人发现自己无力偿还贷款
— and a borrower’s debts are a lender’s assets.
而借款人的债务即贷款人的资产
When borrowers don’t repay the bank,
如果借款人不偿还银行贷款
people get nervous that the bank won’t be able to repay them
人们就会担心银行是否能返还其存款
so they rush to withdraw their money from the bank.
因此他们急忙把钱从银行取出来
Banks get squeezed and people, businesses and banks default on their debts.
银行受到挤兑 而个人 企业和银行出现债务违约
This severe economic contraction is a depression.
这种严重的经济收缩就是经济萧条
A big part of a depression is people discovering much of what they thought
经济萧条的一个主要特征是 人们发现曾以为属于自己的财富
was their wealth isn’t really there.
有很大一部分实际上并不存在
Let’s go back to the bar.
我们再次以酒吧为例
When you bought a beer and put it on a bar tab,
当你用赊账的办法购买一瓶啤酒
you promised to repay the bartender.
并承诺在今后偿还酒吧的赊账
Your promise became an asset of the bartender.
你的承诺变成了酒吧的资产
But if you break your promise –
但如果你食言了
if you don’t pay him back and essentially defaulton your bar tab –
不偿还酒吧账单上的债务 实际上是债务违约
then the ‘asset’ he has isn’t really worth anything.
那么酒吧的这项资产变得一文不值
It has basically disappeared.
它基本上是消失了
Many lenders don’t want their assets to disappear
很多贷款人不希望自己的资产消失
and agree to debt restructuring.
同意债务重组
Debt restructuring means lenders get paid back less
债务重组意味着贷款人收到的还款变少
or get paid back over a longer time frame
或者偿还期变长
or at a lower interest rate that was first agreed.
或者利率低于当初商定的水平
Somehow, a contract is broken in a way that reduces debt.
无论如何 合约以债务减少的方式被破坏
Lenders would rather have a little of something than all of nothing.
贷款人希望 多少收回一些贷款强过血本无归
Even though debt disappears, debt restructuring causes
虽然债务消失了 但是债务重组
income and asset values to disappear faster,
让收入和资产价值消失得更快
so the debt burden continues to gets worse.
于是债务负担变得更为糟糕
Like cutting spending,
和缩减开支一样
debt reduction is also painful and deflationary.
债务削减令人痛苦不堪 还导致通货紧缩
All of this impacts the central government
这一切都冲击着中央政府
because lower incomes and less employment
因为低收入和低就业
means the government collects fewer taxes.
意味着政府征税变得更少
At the same time it needs to increase its spending
因为失业率上升了
because unemployment has risen.
中央政府需要增加支出
Many of the unemployed have inadequate savings
很多失业人员没有足够的存款
and need financial support from the government.
需要政府的财政支持
Additionally, governments create stimulus plans
另外 政府实施刺激计划
and increase their spending to make up for the decrease in the economy.
增加支出来弥补经济活动的减少
Governments’ budget deficits explode in a deleveraging
在去杠杆化过程中 政府预算赤字飙升
because they spend more than they earn in taxes.
原因是政府的支出超过税收
This is what is happening when you hear about the budget deficit on the news.
你在新闻中听到的预算赤字 指的就是前面的情况
To fund their deficits, governments need to either raise taxes or borrow money.
要解决赤字 政府要么提高税收 要么借钱
But with incomes falling and so many unemployed,
但是收入下降 失业人员众多
who is the money going to come from?
钱从哪里来呢?
The rich.
从富人手里
Since governments need more money and
由于政府需要更多的钱
since wealth is heavily concentrated in the hands of a small percentage of the people,
而财富主要集中在一小部分人的手里
governments naturally raise taxes on the wealthy
政府自然提高对富人的征税
which facilitates a redistribution of wealth in the economy –
这样就促进了经济中财富的重新分配
from the ‘haves’ to the ‘have nots’.
把财富从富人那里转给穷人
The’have-nots,’ who are suffering, begin to resent the wealthy’haves.’
正处在困苦当中的穷人开始怨恨富人
The wealthy’haves,’ being squeezed by the weak economy, falling asset prices,
承受经济疲弱 资产贬值和增税压力的富人
higher taxes, begin to resent the’have nots.’
开始怨恨穷人
If the depression continues social disorder can break out.
如果萧条持续下去 社会就会动荡
Not only do tensions rise within countries,
不仅国内的矛盾会加剧
they can rise between countries – especially debtor and creditor countries.
还会引起国际矛盾 尤其是债务国和债权国
This situation can lead to political change that can sometimes be extreme.
这种局势会导致非常极端的政治变革
In the 1930s, this led to Hitler coming to power,
20世纪30年代 这种局势导致希特勒掌权
war in Europe, and depression in the United States.
欧洲发生战乱 美国经济大萧条
Pressure to do something to end the depression increases.
要求采取行动来结束萧条的压力越来越大
Remember, most of what people thought was money was actually credit.
记住 人们心中的货币实际上大部分是信贷
So, when credit disappears, people don’t have enough money.
因此信贷一旦消失 人们的钱就不够花
People are desperate for money and you remember who can print money?
人们迫切需要钱 你记得谁可以发行货币吗?
The Central Bank can.
中央银行可以
Having already lowered its interest rates to nearly 0
央行已经把利率降到几乎为零的水平
– it’s forced to print money.
现在不得不发行更多货币
Unlike cutting spending, debt reduction, and wealth redistribution,
与缩减开支 减少债务和财富再分配不同
printing money is inflationary and stimulative.
发行货币会引起通货膨胀和刺激经济
Inevitably, the central bank prints new money — out of thin air —
中央银行不可避免地凭空发行更多货币
and uses it to buy financial assets and government bonds.
并且用这些货币购买金融资产和政府债券
It happened in the United States during the Great Depression
这种情况曾发生在美国大萧条时期
and again in 2008, when the United States’ central bank the Federal Reserve
并于2008年再次爆发 当时美国的中央银行美联储
— printed over two trillion dollars.
增发超过了两万亿美金
Other central banks around the world that could, printed a lot of money, too.
世界其他能够这样做的中央银行也增发了很多货币
By buying financial assets with this money,
央行通过用这些货币购买金融资产
it helps drive up asset prices which makes people more creditworthy.
帮助推升了资产价格 从而提高了人们的信誉
However, this only helps those who own financial assets.
然而 这只对拥有金融资产的人有所帮助
You see, the central bank can print money
你看 中央银行可以发行货币
but it can only buy financial assets.
但这些货币只能购买金融资产
The Central Government, on the other hand, can buy goods and services
另一方面 中央政府可以买商品和服务
and put money in the hands of the people
把钱发放到人民手里
but it can’t print money.
但不能印刷钞票
So, in order to stimulate the economy, the two must cooperate.
所以 为了刺激经济 两者必须合作
By buying government bonds,
通过购买政府债券
the Central Bank essentially lends money to the government,
央行其实是将钱借给政府
allowing it to run a deficit and increase spending
让政府能够运行赤字预算
on goods and services through its stimulus programs and unemployment benefits.
通过刺激计划和失业救济金 增加购买商品和服务的支出
This increases people’s income as well as the government’s debt.
这增加了人们的收入 也增加了政府债务
However, it will lower the economy’s total debt burden.
但是 这个办法会降低经济的整体债务负担
This is a very risky time.
这是风险很大的时刻
Policy makers need to balance the four ways that debt burdens come down.
决策者需要平衡考虑降低债务负担的四种办法
The deflationary ways need to balance with the inflationary ways
必须兼顾通货紧缩的办法和通货膨胀的办法
in order to maintain stability.
以便保持稳定
If balanced correctly, there can be a Beautiful Deleveraging.
如果平衡得当 就会带来和谐的去杠杆化
You see, a deleveraging can be ugly or it can be beautiful.
所以说去杠杆化可以是痛苦的 也可以是和谐的
How can a deleveraging be beautiful?
怎样才能实现和谐的去杠杆化呢?
Even though a deleveraging is a difficult situation,
尽管去杠杆化是艰难的
handling a difficult situation in the best possible way is beautiful.
但是以最好的办法来处理艰难的局势却是一件好事
A lot more beautiful than the debt-fueled,
这比杠杆化阶段大量举债
unbalanced excesses of the leveraging phase.
产生过度失衡现象要好的多
In a beautiful deleveraging,
在和谐的去杠杆化过程中
debts decline relative to income, real economic growth is positive,
债务收入比率下降 经济实际上是正增长
and inflation isn’t a problem.
同时 通货膨胀也不是问题
It is achieved by having the right balance.
这是通过适当的平衡实现的
The right balance requires a certain mix of cutting spending,
为了取得适当的平衡 需要综合缩减开支
reducing debt, transferring wealth and printing money
减轻债务 转移财富和发行货币
so that economic and social stability can be maintained.
来维持经济和社会稳定
People ask if printing money will raise inflation.
有人问发行货币是否会引起通货膨胀
It won’t if it offsets falling credit.
如果增发的货币抵消了信贷降幅就不会
Remember, spending is what matters.
不要忘记 支出才是最重要的
A dollar of spending paid for with money
每一块钱的支出
has the same effect on price as a dollar of spending paid for with credit.
无论支付的是货币还是信用 对价格的影响都是一样的
By printing money, the Central Bank can make up for the disappearance of credit
央行可以通过印钱增加货币发行量
with an increase in the amount of money.
来弥补消失的信贷
In order to turn things around,
为了扭转局面
the Central Bank needs to not only pump up income growth
央行不仅要推动收入增长
but get the rate of income growth
而且还要让收入增长率
higher than the rate of interest on the accumulated debt.
超过累积债务的利率
So, what do I mean by that?
这么说是什么意思呢?
Basically, income needs to grow faster than debt grows.
主要是说 收入增长要快过债务增长
For example, let’s assume that a country going through a deleveraging
例如 让我们假设一个国家正在去杠杆化
has a debt-to- income ratio of 100%.
该国的债务收入比为1:1
That means that the amount of debt it has
这意味着该国的债务额
is the same as the amount of income the entire country makes in a year.
和该国一年的总收入额相等
Now think about the interest rate on that debt, let’s say it is 2%.
假设这些债务的利率是2%
If debt is growing at 2 % because of that interest rate
因为利率是2% 债务会以2%的速度增长
and income is only growing at around only 1 %,
而收入只以约1%的速度增长
you will never reduce the debt burden.
那你永远也不会减轻债务负担
You need to print enough money to get the rate of income growth above the rate of interest.
必须发行更多的货币 让收入增长率超过利率
However, printing money can easily be abused
然而 发行货币这种方法可能易于被滥用
because it’s so easy to do and people prefer it to the alternatives.
因为发行货币太简单了 人们也更偏爱这种方法
The key is to avoid printing too much money
关键是要避免像20世纪30年代的德国
and causing unacceptably high inflation,
在去杠杆化期间发行过多的货币
the way Germany did during its deleveraging in the 1920’s.
从而导致恶性通货膨胀
If policymakers achieve the right balance,
如果决策者实现了适当的平衡
a deleveraging isn’t so dramatic.
去杠杆化就不会那样激烈
Growth is slow but debt burdens go down.
经济增长速度缓慢 但债务负担减轻了
That’s a beautiful deleveraging.
这就是和谐的去杠杆化
When incomes begin to rise, borrowers begin to appear more creditworthy.
当收入开始增长 借款人信誉也开始提高
And when borrowers appear more creditworthy,
当借款人信誉越来越好
lenders begin to lend money again.
贷款人又开始恢复贷款
Debt burdens finally begin to fall.
债务负担终于开始下降
Able to borrow money, people can spend more.
人们能够借到钱 可以增加消费
Eventually, the economy begins to grow again,
最终 经济开始恢复增长
leading to the reflation phase of the long term debt cycle.
长期债务周期从而进入通货再膨胀阶段
Though the deleveraging process can be horrible if handled badly,
如果处理不当 去杠杆化过程恐怖至极
if handled well, it will eventually fix the problem.
但如果处理得当 问题最终将得以解决
It takes roughly a decade or more
债务负担下降和经济活动恢复正常
for debt burdens to fall and economic activity to get back to normal
大体需要十年或更多的时间
– hence the term’lost decade.’
因此被称为“失去的十年”
In closing.
视频尾声
Of course, the economy is a little more complicated than this template suggests.
当然 现实中的经济比此模型中呈现的更为复杂
However, laying the short term debt cycle on top of the long term debt cycle
然而 把短期债务周期 长期债务周期
and then laying both of them on top of the productivity growth line
和生产率增长轨迹结合起来分析
gives a reasonably good template for seeing where we’ve been,
会得到一个不错的模式 可以看清我们到过的阶段
where we are now and where we are probably headed.
我们现在的处境以及未来可能的发展方向
So in summary, there are three rules of thumb that I’d like you to take away from this:
总而言之 我们可以从中总结出三条经验法则
First: Don’t have debt rise faster than income,
第一:不要让债务增长快过收入
because your debt burdens will eventually crush you.
因为你的债务负担最终会压垮你
Second: Don’t have income rise faster than productivity,
第二:不要让收入增长快过生产力
because you will eventually become uncompetitive.
因为会让你最终会失去竞争力
And third: Do all that you can to raise your productivity,
第三:竭尽全力提高你的生产率
because, in the long run, that’s what matters most.
因为长远来看 生产率起着最关键的作用
This is simple advice for you and it’s simple advice for policy makers.
这就是我给大家 也是给决策者的简单建议
You might be surprised but most people —
大家有可能会吃惊地发现大多数人
including most policy makers — don’t pay enough attention to this.
包括大部分决策者 都没有对此予以足够重视
This template has worked for me and I hope that it’ll work for you.
这个模式对我很有用 希望也将对你们有用
Thank you.
谢谢大家

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视频概述

本视频介绍了信贷在短期和长期方面对消费、收入和生产力的影响,同时介绍了通货膨胀、通货紧缩,债务负担等问题以及相应的解决方案,分析了历史债务循环,帮助读者理解并给出建议。

听录译者

收集自网络

翻译译者

三十四

审核员

审核员YY

视频来源

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PHe0bXAIuk0

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