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区块链将如何彻底改变我们的经济环境 – 译学馆
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区块链将如何彻底改变我们的经济环境

How the blockchain will radically transform the economy | Bettina Warburg

经济学家已经研究人类行为数百年的时间了
Economists have been exploring people’s behavior for hundreds of years:
研究我们如何做决定
how we make decisions,
我们作为个人和群体时如何表现
how we act individually and in groups,
我们如何交换价值
how we exchange value.
他们还研究促进我们交易的机构
They’ve studied the institutions that facilitate our trade,
例如法制系统
like legal systems,
公司
corporations,
交易市场
marketplaces.
但现在有一种全新的技术
But there is a new, technological institution
它能从根本上改变我们交易的方式
that will fundamentally change how we exchange value,
它叫做“区块链”
and it’s called the blockchain.
现在来说 这是个很大胆的陈述
Now, that’s a pretty bold statement,
但是如果你在这里什么都没听懂的话
but if you take nothing else away from this talk,
我仍希望各位记得
I actually want you to remember
即使“区块链”技术相对很新鲜
that while blockchain technology is relatively new,
但它也是我们人类故事的一个延续
it’s also a continuation of a very human story,
故事是这样的:
and the story is this.
作为人类 我们一直在寻找
As humans, we find ways
那些能降低彼此之间不确定性的方式
to lower uncertainty about one another
以便我们能够进行交易
so that we can exchange value.
目前为止 最先真正在经济学里
Now, one of the first people to really explore the idea
研究如何将制度作为工具
of institutions as a tool in economics
来降低我们彼此之间不确定性
to lower our uncertainties about one another
以便我们能够交易的人中
and be able to do trade
有一位是诺贝尔经济学奖获得者
was the Nobel economist Douglass North.
道格拉斯-诺斯 他于2015年年底辞世
He passed away at the end of 2015,
但他开创了“新制度经济学”
but North pioneered what’s called “new institutional economics.”
他所说的制度是指那些正式的规则
And what he meant by institutions were really just formal rules
比如说宪法
like a constitution,
还有一些非正式的规则
and informal constraints, like bribery.
例如贿赂 这些制度是带动
These institutions are really the grease
我们经济发展的润滑剂
that allow our economic wheels to function,
这些制度在整个人类历史上 一直扮演重要角色
and we can see this play out over the course of human history.
如果我们回想一下 当我们还处于采集狩猎经济时代时
If we think back to when we were hunter-gatherer economies,
我们只能在自己村落里做交易
we really just traded within our village structure.
交易在空间上受到了一些非正式的限制
We had some informal constraints in place,
但是我们会用暴力或是社会影响力
but we enforced all of our trade with violence
强制进行这些交易
or social repercussions.
当我们的社会变得更加复杂
As our societies grew more complex
并且我们交易的路线变得更加遥远
and our trade routes grew more distant,
我们建立了更多的正式机构
we built up more formal institutions,
例如货币银行政府
institutions like banks for currency,
公司
governments, corporations.
在交易的不确定性和复杂性增加
These institutions helped us manage our trade
以及我们的个人掌控力下降的情况下
as the uncertainty and the complexity grew,
这些机构能帮助我们管理我们的交易
and our personal control was much lower.
最终 随着互联网的发展 我们在网上也建立了同样的机构
Eventually with the internet, we put these same institutions online.
我们建立了交易平台 如亚马逊 易趣、
We built platform marketplaces like Amazon, eBay, Alibaba,
阿里巴巴这些运作更快速的机构 扮演了中间人的角色
just faster institutions that act as middlemen
促进了人们的经济活动
to facilitate human economic activity.
正如道格拉斯.诺斯预测的
As Douglass North saw it,
制度是用来降低不确定性的工具
institutions are a tool to lower uncertainty
让我们可以在社会中建立联系 并交换各种有价值的东西
so that we can connect and exchange all kinds of value in society.
我还相信我们现在正在进入
And I believe we are now entering
一个更深远更重大的演变
a further and radical evolution
人们之间的互动和交易方式将改变
of how we interact and trade,
因为 这是第一次我们可以降低不确定
because for the first time, we can lower uncertainty
不是通过政治或者经济机构
not just with political and economic institutions,
例如银行 公司和政府
like our banks, our corporations, our governments,
而是单独依靠技术做到这点
but we can do it with technology alone.
所以什么是“区块链”呢?
So what is the blockchain?
“区块链”技术是一种分散式数据库
Blockchain technology is a decentralized database
它通过对等网络
that stores a registry of assets and transactions
存储使用者的资产登记和交易信息
across a peer-to-peer network.
基本来说 这是一个公开的记录系统
It’s basically a public registry
上面记录了谁拥有什么和谁交易过什么
of who owns what and who transacts what.
交易记录是通过密码被安全保护的
The transactions are secured through cryptography,
时间一过 交易记录会被封存在数据块里
and over time, that transaction history gets locked in blocks of data
然后数据块会进行加密连接并安全封存
that are then cryptographically linked together and secured.
这就创建了一个不可改变且不会丢失的记录
This creates and immutable, unforgeable record
包含了所有这个网络下的交易记录
of all of the transactions across this network.
这些记录在这个网络的每台电脑上 都进行了备份
This record is replicated on every computer that uses the network.
这不是一个应用程序
It’s not an app.
也不是一个公司
It’s not a company.
我觉得最接近的描述 应该像是维基百科
I think it’s closest in description to something like Wikipedia.
我们在维基百科上能看到每样东西
We can see everything on Wikipedia.
它是不断变化和更新的复合面貌
It’s a composite view that’s constantly changing and being updated.
我们也可以在维基百科上 实时跟踪这些变化
We can also track those changes over time on Wikipedia,
我们也可以创建我们自己的维基
and we can create our own wikis,
因为他们的核心 只是数据的基础架构
because at their core, they’re just a data infrastructure.
维基百科是一个开放的平台 储存着文字和图片
On Wikipedia, it’s an open platform that stores words and images
以及随时间更新的数据
and the changes to that data over time.
“区块链”
On the blockchain,
你也可以把它当成一个开放的基础设施架构
you can think of it as an open infrastructure
上面储存着各种各样的资产
that stores many kinds of assets.
它存储了资产的履历 包含资产的管理者、
It stores the history of custodianship,
拥有者和地点等变动信息
ownership and location
这些资产包括像比特币那样的资产
for assets like the digital currency Bitcoin,
以及其他数字资产
other digital assets
比如一个网络IP的所有权
like a title of ownership of IP.
它可以是一个证书、一个合同
It could be a certificate, a contract,
现实世界的物件
real world objects,
甚至是个人的身份信息
even personal identifiable information.
当然“区块链”还有其他的技术细节
There are of course other technical details to the blockchain,
但它的核心是这样运作的
but at its core, that’s how it works.
它是公开的记录系统 存储着该网络的所有交易记录
It’s this public registry that stores transactions in a network
而且它可以复制到网络中的每台电脑 因此它非常安全
and is replicated so that it’s very secure and hard to tamper with.
很难被篡改 这就引申出我要说的重点”
Which brings me to my point
区块链“可以如何降低”不确定性
of how blockchains lower uncertainty
“以及他们如何因此彻底地
and how they therefore promise to transform our economic systems
改变我们的经济体系
in radical ways.
“不确定性”在经济上
So uncertainty is kind of a big term
似乎是一个大术语
in economics,
但是我想通过三个方面来介绍
but I want to go through three forms of it
我们日常交易中几乎都会遇到的 不确定性问题
that we face in almost all of our everyday transactions,
以及”区域块“在这些问题中可以扮演的角色
where blockchains can play a role.
我们面对的不确定性例如: 我们不知在跟谁交易
We face uncertainties like not knowing who we’re dealing with,
交易过程不透明
not having visibility into a transaction
还有如果出现问题我们不知如何求助
and not having recourse if things go wrong.
那么我们来先谈谈第一条 不知在跟谁交易
So let’s take the first example, not knowing who we’re dealing with.
比如说我想在易趣上买个二手手机
Say I want to buy a used smartphone on eBay.
我要做的第一件事就是确认我要跟谁买
The first thing I’m going to do is look up who I’m buying from.
他们是超级用户吗?
Are they a power user?
他们有收到好评吗? 还是说根本没有他们的介绍?
Do they have great reviews and ratings, or do they have no profile at all?
评价 打分
Reviews, ratings, checkmarks:
核查标记:这些是我们今天用来拼凑
these are the attestations about our identities
对方身份信息的证据
that we cobble together today
这些信息用来降低对方身份的不确定性
and use to lower uncertainty about who we’re dealing with.
但问题是这些信息非常零碎
But the problem is they’re very fragmented.
想想你个人就有多少份简介”
Think about how many profiles you have.
区块链“可以让我们创建 一个开放的、
Blockchains allow for us to create an open, global platform
全球的平台可以存储来自任何来源的
on which to store any attestation about any individual
个人身份证明信息这样
from any source.
我们创建了一个用户控制的
This allows us to create a user-controlled
便携的身份证明
portable identity.
这不只是一个简介
More than a profile,
它意味着你可以选择性地揭示
it means you can selectively reveal
你的不同个人属性
the different attributes about you
以便交易或者互动
that help facilitate trade or interaction,
例如想证明政府给你发了一个身份证
for instance that a government issued you an ID,
或者证明你超过21岁
or that you’re over 21,
只要揭示相关的密码凭证
by revealing the cryptographic proof
就可证明这些信息是 真实存在并且通过签字的
that these details exist and are signed off on.
有了这种连接真实与数字世界的
Having this kind of portable identity
便携式身份证明
around the physical world and the digital world
意味着我们可以用一种全新的方式
means we can do all kinds of human trade
来做任何类型的交易
in a totally new way.
我阐述完”区块链“在我们跟谁交易方面
So I’ve talked about how blockchains could lower uncertainty
是如何降低不确定性的
in who we’re dealing with.
第二个我们经常遇到的不确定性问题
The second uncertainty that we often face
是交易过程缺乏透明度
is just not having transparency into our interactions.
比如说你要给我邮寄智能手机
Say you’re going to send me that smartphone by mail.
我想要有一定的透明度
I want some degree of transparency.
我想知道我买的东西跟寄到我邮箱里的东西 是否是同一个东西
I want to know that the product I bought is the same one that arrives in the mail
还有一些关于这个东西邮寄过程的记录
and that there’s some record for how it got to me.
不仅像智能手机这样的电子产品如此
This is true not just for electronics like smartphones,
很多类型的产品和数据也适用
but for many kinds of goods and data,
例如药物
things like medicine, luxury goods,
奢侈品以及任何我们不想被掉包的数据或产品
any kind of data or product that we don’t want tampered with.
很多公司都有这个问题
The problem in many companies,
尤其是那些生产像智能手机这种复杂产品的公司
especially those that produce something complicated like a smartphone,
他们通过一个水平的供货链
is they’re managing all of these different vendors
来管理所有不同的供应商
across a horizontal supply chain.
参与产品制造的所有相关人士
All of these people that go into making a product,
他们没有同一份数据库
they don’t have the same database.
他们不使用同一套基础数据架构
They don’t use the same infrastructure,
因此很难看到一个产品是如何随时间变化的
and so it becomes really hard to see transparently a product evolve over time.
利用区块链
Using the blockchain, we can create
我们可以在在陌生的个体之间 创建一个共享的事实
a shared reality across nontrusting entities.
我的意思是
By this I mean
所有在这个网络里的的节点 不需要互相认识
all of these nodes in the network do not need to know each other
或者互相信任
or trust each other,
因为他们都有能力
because they each have the ability
自己来监控和确认生产链
to monitor and validate the chain for themselves.
回看一下维基百科
Think back to Wikipedia.
它是一个共享的数据库
It’s a shared database,
即使它同时拥有很多不同的读者
and even though it has multiple readers
和不同作者
and multiple writers at the same time,
但是只有一个事实
it has one single truth.
我们可以利用区块链来创建类似的系统
So we can create that using blockchains.
我们可以创建一个分散的数据库 让它有跟垄断一样的效果
We can create a decentralized database that has the same efficiency of a monopoly
但不用真的创建中心管理机构
without actually creating that central authority.
因此所有的供应商 所有类型的公司
So all of these vendors, all sorts of companies,
不需要相互信任 都可以使用这个相同的数据库
can interact using the same database without trusting one another.
对消费者来说 我们对产品就有了更多的透明度
It means for consumers, we can have a lot more transparency.
当一个现实世界的东西寄出时
As a real-world object travels along,
我们可以它的数字认证或者标记 在区块链上变动
we can see its digital certificate or token move on the blockchain,
随着它的移动而添加记录值
adding value as it goes.
就我们的能见度而言 这是一个全新的世界
This is a whole new world in terms of our visibility.
现在我已经描述了区块链 如何在身份认证方面降低不确定性
So I’ve talked about how blockchains can lower our uncertainties about identity
以及如何改变供应链中
and how they change what we mean about transparency
长距离和复杂贸易中的透明度
in long distances and complex trades, like in a supply chain.
最后我们经常遇到 也是一个最难限制的“不确定性”是
The last uncertainty that we often face
违约问题
is one of the most open-ended, and it’s reneging.
如果你不给我寄手机怎么办?
What if you don’t send me the smartphone?
我能拿回我的钱吗?
Can I get my money back?
区块链让我们可以在个体之间
Blockchains allow us to write code,
写代码
binding contracts,
建合约
between individuals
还担保在没有第三方介入的情况下
and then guarantee that those contracts will bear out
这些合约就能履行
without a third party enforcer.
因此如果我们来看手机的例子 你可能会想到第三方托管
So if we look at the smartphone example, you could think about escrow.
你花钱买这个手机
You are financing that phone,
但你不必在尚未确认 所有合同条件都符合
but you don’t need to release the funds
并拿到手机前
until you can verify that all the conditions have been met.
把钱付给卖家
You got the phone.
我觉得这是区块链在降低不确定性方面
I think this is one of the most exciting ways
最让人兴奋的地方
that blockchains lower our uncertainties,
因为这意味着 在某种层面上
because it means to some degree
我们可以不再需要 通过机构来保证交易执行了
we can collapse institutions and their enforcement.
意味着有更多的人类经济活动
It means a lot of human economic activity
可以自动地得到担保抵押
can get collateralized and automated,
而将很多人为干扰因素局限在外边
and push a lot of human intervention to the edges,
信息从真实世界进入到区块链后 就不再受干扰
the places where information moves from the real world to the blockchain.
我觉得这个技术的使用
I think what would probably floor Douglass North
会让道格拉斯.诺斯感到冲击的是”
about this use of technology
区块链“技术真的办到了他说的事情
is the fact that the very thing that makes it work,
而让”区块链“保持安全和正确的
the very thing that keeps the blockchain secure and verified,
恰恰就是我们彼此之间的不信任
is our mutual distrust.
因此我们不再需要让所有的不确定性
So rather than all of our uncertainties
拖慢我们的脚步
slowing us down
或是建立一些机构
and requiring institutions
像银行 政府
like banks, our governments, our corporations,
公司实际上我们可以驾驭这些所有的不确定性
we can actually harness all of that collective uncertainty
并用它进行更多的合作和交换 而且更快更开放现在
and use it to collaborate and exchange more and faster and more open.
我不想你有这样一个印象
Now, I don’t want you to get the impression
以为区块链可以解决任何事情
that the blockchain is the solution to everything,
虽然有媒体称它将消灭世界贫穷
even though the media has said that it’s going to end world poverty,
将要解决毒品问题
it’s also going to solve the counterfeit drug problem
还有拯救热带雨林的潜力
and potentially save the rainforest.
但事实是 这个技术还处于起步阶段
The truth is, this technology is in its infancy,
在我们真正理解所有 ”
and we’re going to need to see a lot of experiments take place
区域块“技术在经济上的应用案例之前
and probably fail
我们还需观察许多实验的结果
before we truly understand all of the use cases
也有可能会失败
for our economy.
但是有很多人正在从事这方面的研究
But there are tons of people working on this,
从金融机构
from financial institutions
到技术公司 新兴公司和学校
to technology companies, start-ups and universities.
其中的一个原因就是 这不仅仅是一个经济方面的演变
And one of the reasons is that it’s not just an economic evolution.
这也是计算机科学方面的创新
It’s also an innovation in computer science.
“区块链”提供我们一个技术能力
Blockchains give us the technological capability
使我们能够创建交易记录
of creating a record of human exchange,
货币交换的记录
of exchange of currency,
各种数据和物质资产的记录
of all kinds of digital and physical assets,
甚至是我们的个人属性记录
even of our own personal attributes,
它用一个全新的方式进行记录
in a totally new way.
所以在某些方面来说
So in some ways,
他们变成了一个技术机构
they become a technological institution
它拥有我们以往社会中用到
that has a lot of the benefits
的传统机构的
of the traditional institutions we’re used to using in society,
很多优点但它是通过一个分散的方式达成的
but it does this in a decentralized way.
它将很多的不确定性
It does this by converting a lot of our uncertainties
转化为确定
into certainties.
所以我认为我们要开始准备了
So I think we need to start preparing ourselves,
因为我们即将面对这样一个世界
because we are about to face a world
这个世界里 分散的、自主式的机构
where distributed, autonomous institutions
将扮演相当重要的角色
have quite a significant role.
谢谢
Thank you.
(掌声)
(Applause)
Bruno Giussani: 谢谢 Bettina.
Bruno Giussani: Thank you, Bettina.
我觉得我能理解”区块链“将要到来
I think I understood that it’s coming,
它提供了很多潜在的机会
it offers a lot of potential,
而且很复杂
and it’s complex.
你预计”区域块“的采用率会是怎样呢?
What is your estimate for the rate of adoption?
Bettina Warburg: 这是个好问题
Bettina Warburg: I think that’s a really good question.
我的实验大部分
My lab is pretty much focused
先从企业和政府方面入手
on going the enterprise and government route first,
因为在现实中 区块链是个很复杂的技术
because in reality, blockchain is a complex technology.
在座有多少人是真正理解因特网的运作呢?
How many of you actually understand how the internet works?
但是你们每天都在使用
But you use it every day,
所以我觉得我们在面对 約翰.史考利(前苹果公司执行官)所说的情况
so I think we’re sort of facing the same John Sculley idea
科技要么最好让人看不到要么让人觉得很美
of technology should either be invisible or beautiful,
而区块链目前两样都不具备
and blockchain is kind of neither of those things right now,
所以它更适合于早期使用者
so it’s better suited for either really early adopters
这种人既能接受它
who kind of get it and can tinker around
也能修改它或者用来从中找到最佳使用情景
or for finding those best use cases
比如企业或政府层级的用户
like identity or asset tracking or smart contracts
可以用来做身份证明、资产追踪 或者智能合同
that can be used at that level of an enterprise or government.
BG: 谢谢 谢谢你来到TEDBW:
BG: Thank you. Thanks for coming to TED.
谢谢
BW: Thanks.
(掌声)
(Applause)

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视频来源

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RplnSVTzvnU

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