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如何不对世界无知

How not to be ignorant about the world | Hans and Ola Rosling

汉斯·罗斯林:我要问你们
Hans Rosling: I’m going to ask you
三个选择题
three multiple choice questions.
用这个 用这个装置来回答我的问题
Use this device. Use this device to answer.
第一个问题是 每年
The first question is, how did the number
由于自然灾害而死亡的
of deaths per year
人数是多少
from natural disaster,
这个数字在上个世纪的变化趋势是怎样的?
how did that change during the last century?
是比原来的两倍还多
Did it more than double,
全世界整体持平
did it remain about the same in the world as a whole,
还是减少了一半以上?
or did it decrease to less than half?
请选择A B或C
Please answer A, B or C.
我看到了很多答案 这比我在大学里问这个问题时收到回答的时间快多了
I see lots of answers. This is much faster than I do it at universities.
他们慢到家了 老是想啊 想啊 想啊的
They are so slow. They keep thinking, thinking, thinking.
啊 很好 很好
Oh, very, very good.
下面是第二个问题
And we go to the next question.
全世界30岁的女性
So how long did women 30 years old
平均在校时间是多少
in the world go to school:
7年 5年还是3年?
seven years, five years or three years?
A B还是C 请选择
A, B or C? Please answer.
然后下一个问题
And we go to the next question.
在过去的20年内
In the last 20 years, how did the percentage
全球赤贫的人口比例
of people in the world
是如何变化的?
who live in extreme poverty change?
赤贫是指一个人没有足够的食物满足其一天的需求
Extreme poverty — not having enough food for the day.
是几乎是原来的两倍
Did it almost double,
还是基本持平
did it remain more or less the same,
亦或是减半了?
or did it halve?
A B还是C
A, B or C?
现在来公布答案
Now, answers.
你看
You see,
全世界死于自然灾害的人数
deaths from natural disasters in the world,
你可以从这个图中看出
you can see it from this graph here,
从1900到2000年
from 1900 to 2000.
在1900年 每年大约50万人
In 1900, there was about half a million people
死于自然灾害
who died every year from natural disasters:
洪水 地震 火山爆发 等等等等 干旱
floods, earthquakes, volcanic eruption, whatever, droughts.
然后呢 这个数据有了什么变化
And then, how did that change?
Gapminder在向瑞典人问了这么一个问题
Gapminder asked the public in Sweden.
这是他们的回答
This is how they answered.
瑞典民众回答的分布是这样的
The Swedish public answered like this:
50%的人认为人数翻倍了
Fifty percent thought it had doubled,
38%认为基本不变
38 percent said it’s more or less the same,
12%认为减半了
12 said it had halved.
而这是灾害研究者收集的最佳数据
This is the best data from the disaster researchers,
它时高时低
and it goes up and down,
第二次世界大战时上升
and it goes to the Second World War,
之后就一直下降 下降
and after that it starts to fall and it keeps falling
降了远远低于一半
and it’s down to much less than half.
世界随着时间的推移
The world has been much, much more capable
越来越能够
as the decades go by
保护人们不受自然灾害侵袭 你知道的
to protect people from this, you know.
而仅仅12%的瑞典人知道这一点
So only 12 percent of the Swedes know this.
然后我去了动物园问黑猩猩们
So I went to the zoo and I asked the chimps.
[大笑][鼓掌]
(Laughter) (Applause)
黑猩猩们从来不看晚间新闻
The chimps don’t watch the evening news,
它们
so the chimps,
随机选择 而瑞典人的回答情况比随机选择还差
they choose by random, so the Swedes answer worse than random.
你们做的咋样?
Now how did you do?
这是你们的答案
That’s you.
你们被黑猩猩们打败了
You were beaten by the chimps.
[大笑]
(Laughter)
但是很接近啦
But it was close.
要知道你们比瑞典人好了三倍
You were three times better than the Swedes,
但是这还不够
but that’s not enough.
你们不能跟瑞典人比
You shouldn’t compare yourself to Swedes.
你们得有更高的追求
You must have higher ambitions in the world.
看看下一个问题的答案:女性的受教育年数
Let’s look at the next answer here: women in school.
这儿 你们可以看到男性平均受教育年数有8年
Here, you can see men went eight years.
女性受教育年数有多少?
How long did women go to school?
好吧 我们也问了瑞典人这个问题
Well, we asked the Swedes like this,
这给了你们点提示 有没有?
and that gives you a hint, doesn’t it?
正确答案应该是
The right answer is probably the one
瑞典人选的最少的那个 对吧
the fewest Swedes picked, isn’t it?
[大笑]
(Laughter)
来看看 来看看 答案来了
Let’s see, let’s see. Here we come.
是的 是的 是的 女性几乎追上了男性
Yes, yes, yes, women have almost caught up.
这是美国人的答案
This is the U.S. public.
而这是你们的答案
And this is you. Here you come.
噢……
Ooh.
好吧 恭喜你们 你们有瑞典人两倍棒啦
Well, congratulations, you’re twice as good as the Swedes,
但你们不用我提醒……
but you don’t need me —
所以 这是怎么回事 我觉得是这样的
So how come? I think it’s like this,
所有人都知道全球范围内
that everyone is aware that there are countries
在某些国家和地区
and there are areas
女孩们会遇到很多的阻力
where girls have great difficulties.
来阻止她们上学
They are stopped when they go to school,
这很令人作呕
and it’s disgusting.
但在全球大部分地区
But in the majority of the world,
大部分人中
where most people in the world live,
大部分国家里 女孩们的受教育年数
most countries, girls today go to school
和男孩们是差不多的
as long as boys, more or less.
这不代表着已经实现了性别平等
That doesn’t mean that gender equity is achieved,
完全算不上
not at all.
她们仍然被那些糟糕的限制所束缚者
They still are confined to terrible, terrible limitations,
但是如今已经在全球都实现了学校教育了
but schooling is there in the world today.
现在 我们忽视了主流情况
Now, we miss the majority.
当你们作答时 你们是根据了那些最糟糕地区的状况做出判断
When you answer, you answer according to the worst places,
从那个角度来看你们是对的 但是你们忽视了主流
and there you are right, but you miss the majority.
那么贫穷问题呢
What about poverty?
好吧 很清楚了
Well, it’s very clear that poverty here
赤贫状况基本上减少了一半
was almost halved,
而在美国 我们问了这个问题
and in U.S., when we asked the public,
只有5%的人答对了
only five percent got it right.
而你们呢
And you?
啊 你们马上就要达到黑猩猩的水平了
Ah, you almost made it to the chimps.
[大笑][鼓掌]
(Laughter) (Applause)
你们中间 就这么点人答对了!
That little, just a few of you!
你们肯定有了一些先入为主的认知
There must be preconceived ideas, you know.
而很多在发达国家的人
And many in the rich countries,
他们觉得 啊 我们永远不能终结赤贫
they think that oh, we can never end extreme poverty.
他们当然这么觉得了
Of course they think so,
因为他们根本不知道过去都发生了什么
because they don’t even know what has happened.
了解未来的第一件事
The first thing to think about the future
是了解现在
is to know about the present.
这些问题选自我们
These questions were a few of the first ones
Gapminder基金会扫盲计划在试验阶段
in the pilot phase of the Ignorance Project
提出的前置问题
in Gapminder Foundation that we run,
而这个计划 在去年 由我的老板
and it was started, this project, last year
也是我的儿子 欧拉·罗斯林 开始实施 [大笑]
by my boss, and also my son, Ola Rosling. (Laughter)
他是这个项目的共同创办人和指挥者
He’s cofounder and director,
欧拉告诉我他希望
and he wanted, Ola told me
在全力扫盲的时候
we have to be more systematic
得采用更系统的方法
when we fight devastating ignorance.
所以 既然试验项目已经
So already the pilots reveal this,
揭示了民众得分甚至不如随机选择
that so many in the public score worse than random,
那么我们必须好好思考一下那些先入为主的观念
so we have to think about preconceived ideas,
而一个最广为人知的先入为主的观念
and one of the main preconceived ideas
是关于世界收入分布的
is about world income distribution.
看这里 这是1975年的收入分布
Look here. This is how it was in 1975.
这是按收入划分的人数统计图
It’s the number of people on each income,
从每天1美元
from one dollar a day —
[掌声]
(Applause)
看到了吗 在1美元这里
See, there was one hump here,
有一个隆起
around one dollar a day,
这边是另一个隆起
and then there was one hump here
在人均10美元到100美元中间
somewhere between 10 and 100 dollars.
世界分为两个集团
The world was two groups.
这就是个骆驼的世界 双峰的骆驼
It was a camel world, like a camel with two humps,
穷人和富人
the poor ones and the rich ones,
还有一小部分人位于两者之间
and there were fewer in between.
但是看看之后的变化
But look how this has changed:
当我把时间向前拨动时 变化了的是
As I go forward, what has changed,
世界人口增加了
the world population has grown,
而驼峰开始合并
and the humps start to merge.
较低的隆起与较高的隆起合并了
The lower humps merged with the upper hump,
双峰骆驼死了 生出来了
and the camel dies and we have a dromedary world
一个单峰骆驼
with one hump only.
贫穷人口比例下降
The percent in poverty has decreased.
但数据仍然骇人听闻
Still it’s appalling
仍有这么多人生活在赤贫中
that so many remain in extreme poverty.
这部分人群仍有10亿人口
We still have this group, almost a billion, over there,
但是这些可以被终止
but that can be ended now.
我们现在面对的挑战
The challenge we have now
是抛开那些问题 来理解什么是主流情况
is to get away from that, understand where the majority is,
而答案已经在问题中写得很明白
and that is very clearly shown in this question.
我们询问了
We asked, what is the percentage of the world’s
全球一岁儿童中
one-year-old children who have got those
有多少孩子 接受了我们已经接受了很多年的
basic vaccines against measles and other things
基本疫苗的注射 如麻疹疫苗等等
that we have had for many years:
20% 50%还是80%
20, 50 or 80 percent?
这是美国和瑞典人的答案
Now, this is what the U.S. public and the Swedish answered.
看看瑞典人的结果
Look at the Swedish result:
你们就该知道正确答案了
you know what the right answer is.
[大笑]
(Laughter)
谁是瑞典的世界健康教授 给我站出来
Who the heck is a professor of global health in that country?
好吧 是我 就是我
Well, it’s me. It’s me.
[大笑]
(Laughter)
这个很困难 好吗 很困难的
It’s very difficult, this. It’s very difficult.
[掌声]
(Applause)
无论如何 奥拉设计了一个方法
However, Ola’s approach
来衡量我们知道的哪些知识能够成为头条新闻
to really measure what we know made headlines,
而CNN在网站上公布了这些结果
and CNN published these results on their web
他们的网站上 几百万人回答了这些问题
and they had the questions there, millions answered,
大概有2000条评论
and I think there were about 2,000 comments,
下边是其中一条评论
and this was one of the comments.
我打赌没有媒体工作者能答对这些问题 他说
“I bet no member of the media passed the test,” he said.
欧拉告诉我 带上这些发明
So Ola told me, “Take these devices.
你被邀请参加媒体见面会了
You are invited to media conferences.
在那里用这些发明测测他们都知道什么
Give it to them and measure what the media know.”
女士们 先生们
And ladies and gentlemen,
有史以来第一次
for the first time, the informal results
来自和美国媒体会面的非正式数据
from a conference with U.S. media.
之后 还有欧盟媒体数据
And then, lately, from the European Union media.
[笑声]
(Laughter)
你看 问题不在于
You see, the problem is not that people
人们不接收媒体信息
don’t read and listen to the media.
而在于媒体工作者们自己就不知道啥
The problem is that the media doesn’t know themselves.
欧拉 你说这该怎么办
What shall we do about this, Ola?
有什么主意么
Do we have any ideas?
[掌声]
(Applause)
欧拉·罗司斯林:我有个主意 但首先
Ola Rosling: Yes, I have an idea, but first,
先让我对你们被黑猩猩打败而表达遗憾
I’m so sorry that you were beaten by the chimps.
幸运的是 我同样也要安慰安慰你们
Fortunately, I will be able to comfort you
因为这的确不是你们的问题
by showing why it was not your fault, actually.
然后 我会教给你们一些技巧
Then, I will equip you with some tricks
让你们在将来可以打败黑猩猩们
for beating the chimps in the future.
这就是我接下来主要要做的
That’s basically what I will do.
首先 让我们看看为什么我们如此无知
But first, let’s look at why are we so ignorant,
一切都是从这里开始的
and it all starts in this place.
这是胡迪克斯瓦尔 一座瑞典西部的城市
It’s Hudiksvall. It’s a city in northern Sweden.
这是我长大的街区
It’s a neighborhood where I grew up,
也是一个问题比较严重的街区
and it’s a neighborhood with a large problem.
实际上 同样的问题
Actually, it has exactly the same problem
也存在在所有的街区中
which existed in all the neighborhoods
包括你成长的环境
where you grew up as well.
这不是个例
It was not representative. Okay?
它让我们对这个星球上的生活
It gave me a very biased view
产生偏见
of how life is on this planet.
这就是无知的第一个答案
So this is the first piece of the ignorance puzzle.
我们有个人偏见
We have a personal bias.
每个人都有不同的经历
We have all different experiences
我们来自不同的社区 遇到过不同的人
from communities and people we meet,
最重要的是 我们还要上学
and on top of this, we start school,
这就有了另一个问题
and we add the next problem.
嗯 我喜欢学校
Well, I like schools,
但老师们往往教授的是过时的世界观
but teachers tend to teach outdated worldviews,
因为他们掌握的是多年前他们上学时的知识
because they learned something when they went to school,
然后他们又把这些教给了学生
and now they describe this world to the students
当然不带任何恶意
without any bad intentions,
当然还有这些书 因为世界日新月异
and those books, of course, that are printed
所以它们被刊印出来的时候已经过时了
are outdated in a world that changes.
而根本没有办法
And there is really no practice
能保证教学材料紧跟时代的脚步
to keep the teaching material up to date.
所以这就是我们的关注点
So that’s what we are focusing on.
我们掌握着过时的知识
So we have these outdated facts
加上个人偏见
added on top of our personal bias.
结果就是新闻了 对吧
What happens next is news, okay?
一个出色的记者知道怎么挑出
An excellent journalist knows how to pick
能够出现在头版头条的故事
the story that will make headlines,
而因为新闻带来的轰动效应人们就会去看
and people will read it because it’s sensational.
稀奇的事件才更有趣 是吧
Unusual events are more interesting, no?
还得有夸张
And they are exaggerated,
还有尤其我们都害怕的东西
and especially things we’re afraid of.
一条鲨鱼袭击了一个瑞典人
A shark attack on a Swedish person
这能在瑞典新闻头条上呆上几个礼拜
will get headlines for weeks in Sweden.
所以这是三条歪曲的信息来源
So these three skewed sources of information
实在很难摆脱掉
were really hard to get away from.
它们无时无刻不在轰炸我们
They kind of bombard us
让我们的脑袋里充满了奇怪的想法
and equip our mind with a lot of strange ideas,
顶端是最重要的 是让人类与其他动物区别开来的特质
and on top of it we put the very thing
人类直觉
that makes us humans, our human intuition.
它在进化过程中很有用
It was good in evolution.
帮助我们总结
It helped us generalize
并十分快速地得出结论
and jump to conclusions very, very fast.
它夸大我们害怕的事物
It helped us exaggerate what we were afraid of,
让我们在毫无关系的事物中找寻联系
and we seek causality where there is none,
让我们对自己产生虚假的信心
and we then get an illusion of confidence
比如每个人都相信自己是最好的司机
where we believe that we are the best car drivers,
非同一般
above the average.
每个人都会说
Everybody answered that question,
是的 我开的更好
“Yeah, I drive cars better.”
可以说 就进化而言这是优点
Okay, this was good evolutionarily,
但是现在 在树立世界观的问题上
but now when it comes to the worldview,
这就是为什么认知与事实完全相反
it is the exact reason why it’s upside down.
我们以为上升的趋势实际上在下降
The trends that are increasing are instead falling,
反之亦然
and the other way around,
而且在这个案例中 黑猩猩利用我们的直觉打败了我们
and in this case, the chimps use our intuition against us,
直觉成了我们的弱点 而非优势
and it becomes our weakness instead of our strength.
它本来应该是优势的 不是吗?
It was supposed to be our strength, wasn’t it?
所以我们怎么解决这种问题?
So how do we solve such problems?
首先 我们要衡量它
First, we need to measure it,
然后 我们治愈它
and then we need to cure it.
通过衡量它 我们能够
So by measuring it we can understand
理解无知的模式
what is the pattern of ignorance.
我们去年开始做试验项目
We started the pilot last year,
而现在我们非常确信我们会面对
and now we’re pretty sure that we will encounter
全世界数不清的无知
a lot of ignorance across the whole world,
而这个主意
and the idea is really to
根据不同地区和国家的
scale it up to all domains
不同领域或方面而成比例升高
or dimensions of global development,
好像气候问题 濒危物种 人权问题
such as climate, endangered species, human rights,
性别平等 能源 金融
gender equality, energy, finance.
所有这些领域都有一些知识
All different sectors have facts,
有组织正在致力于提高人们
and there are organizations trying to spread
对这些知识的了解度
awareness about these facts.
所以我已经开始接触其中一些组织
So I’ve started actually contacting some of them,
比如世界自然基金会 国际特赦组织 联合国儿童基金会
like WWF and Amnesty International and UNICEF,
问他们 你最喜欢
and asking them, what are your favorite facts
而公众不知道的知识有哪些
which you think the public doesn’t know?
好了 我收集好了那些知识
Okay, I gather those facts.
现在想象一张冗长的单子 上面写了 比如 250个小知识
Imagine a long list with, say, 250 facts.
然后我们让民众投票
And then we poll the public
看看他们得分最低的点在哪里
and see where they score worst.
所以我们生成了一张短一点的单子
So we get a shorter list
上面是得分糟糕的部分
with the terrible results,
就像汉斯的实验中的例子
like some few examples from Hans,
想要得到得分糟糕的部分
and we have no problem finding these kinds
总是不费力的
of terrible results.
好了 有了这份短清单 接下来我们要做什么呢
Okay, this little shortlist, what are we going to do with it?
我们把它改成了一个知识量资格证
Well, we turn it into a knowledge certificate,
全球知识量资格证
a global knowledge certificate,
在大型组织
which you can use, if you’re a large organization,
学校 大学 或者新闻机构中
a school, a university, or maybe a news agency,
你都可以用它来证明你对全球知识的了解程度
to certify yourself as globally knowledgeable.
基本上就意味着 我们不招知识量只有
Basically meaning, we don’t hire people
黑猩猩级别的人
who score like chimpanzees.
当然也不能这么做
Of course you shouldn’t.
所以可能今后10年
So maybe 10 years from now,
如果这个项目成功了
if this project succeeds,
可能你在面试时
you will be sitting in an interview
就得填写这张丧心病狂的全球知识了解程度测试
having to fill out this crazy global knowledge.
现在我们来谈谈实际操作
So now we come to the practical tricks.
你怎么成功
How are you going to succeed?
当然 有个方法就是
There is, of course, one way,
深夜坐在书桌前
which is to sit down late nights
看所有有关报道
and learn all the facts by heart
然后用心记住每一个知识
by reading all these reports.
实际上这不可能
That will never happen, actually.
就算汉斯相信也不可能
Not even Hans thinks that’s going to happen.
人们根本没那么多时间
People don’t have that time.
人们都喜欢捷径 而在这个问题上还真有捷径可走
People like shortcuts, and here are the shortcuts.
我们得让直觉重新变成优势
We need to turn our intuition into strength again.
我们要拥有总结的能力
We need to be able to generalize.
那么现在我教你们几个小技巧
So now I’m going to show you some tricks
可以用拇指规则
where the misconceptions are turned around
直接将错误的观念变成正确的
into rules of thumb.
我们来看第一个错误观念
Let’s start with the first misconception.
它传播非常广泛
This is very widespread.
一切都在变糟
Everything is getting worse.
你听到了 心里默默想着
You heard it. You thought it yourself.
另一种思考方式是 绝大多数事情变好了
The other way to think is, most things improve.
你坐在第一个问题面前
So you’re sitting with a question in front of you
不确定答案是什么 那你就猜“好转”
and you’re unsure. You should guess “improve.”
行不 不要选“变糟”
Okay? Don’t go for the worse.
这样会让你测试得分更高的
That will help you score better on our tests.
[掌声]
(Applause)
刚刚是第一个
That was the first one.
世界上有穷人有富人
There are rich and poor
贫富差距在逐渐拉大
and the gap is increasing.
糟糕的不平等
It’s a terrible inequality.
对 这是个不平等的世界
Yeah, it’s an unequal world,
但是你看看数据 这是单峰
but when you look at the data, it’s one hump.
好吗 你不确定
Okay? If you feel unsure,
那就选“大多数人处于中间区域”
go for “the most people are in the middle.”
这样会更容易选出正确答案
That’s going to help you get the answer right.
现在 下一个先入为主的观念是
Now, the next preconceived idea is
第一世界的国家和人民只有变得很有钱
first countries and people need to be very, very rich
才能带来社会发展
to get the social development
比如女孩儿可以上学 会受到自然灾难的冲击
like girls in school and be ready for natural disasters.
不不不 错了
No, no, no. That’s wrong.
看 在那些处于中间的大驼峰位置的国家里
Look: that huge hump in the middle
女孩儿已经可以上学了
already have girls in school.
所以如果你不确定
So if you are unsure, go for the
就选“大部分已经实现了这一制度”
“the majority already have this,”
比如供电 允许女孩儿上学 等等
like electricity and girls in school, these kinds of things.
全都只是靠的拇指规则
They’re only rules of thumb,
当然这条规则不是万能的
so of course they don’t apply to everything,
但是这是总结的方法
but this is how you can generalize.
我们来看最后一题
Let’s look at the last one.
这个很不错
If something, yes, this is a good one,
鲨鱼很危险
sharks are dangerous.
不是——哦不 是的 但在全球数据里面
No — well, yes, but they are not so important
他们还没那么重要 这就是我要说的
in the global statistics, that is what I’m saying.
事实上我很怕鲨鱼
I actually, I’m very afraid of sharks.
所以一旦我看到有关我害怕的东西的问题
So as soon as I see a question about things I’m afraid of,
可能是地震 其他宗教
which might be earthquakes, other religions,
我还害怕恐怖分子或者鲨鱼
maybe I’m afraid of terrorists or sharks,
凡是让我觉得……
anything that makes me feel,
假设你要夸大这个问题
assume you’re going to exaggerate the problem.
这是拇指规则
That’s a rule of thumb.
当然还有些危险的事情也很大
Of course there are dangerous things that are also great.
鲨鱼杀人案发生得非常非常少你得这样想
Sharks kill very, very few. That’s how you should think.
有了这四条拇指规则
With these four rules of thumb,
你就能答得比猩猩好了
you could probably answer better than the chimps,
因为猩猩不会拇指规则
because the chimps cannot do this.
他们无法总结规则
They cannot generalize these kinds of rules.
希望我们能帮你修正世界观
And hopefully we can turn your world around
然后去打败黑猩猩 怎么样
and we’re going to beat the chimps. Okay?
[掌声]
(Applause)
这就是一个系统方法
That’s a systematic approach.
现在问题来了 这重要吗
Now the question, is this important?
当然了 理解贫穷
Yeah, it’s important to understand poverty,
赤贫和如何对付它
extreme poverty and how to fight it,
还有如何扩大女孩受教育权利很重要
and how to bring girls in school.
当意识到实际上我们正在取得胜利时 我们就能理解它们了
When we realize that actually it’s succeeding, we can understand it.
但这个方法对于那些关心富人的人
But is it important for everyone else
是否也重要呢
who cares about the rich end of this scale?
我会说 是的 极其重要
I would say yes, extremely important,
原因是一样的
for the same reason.
如果你对当今世界的观念是基于事实形成的
If you have a fact-based worldview of today,
那你就可能会明白
you might have a chance to understand
未来将会发生什么
what’s coming next in the future.
我们再来看看1975年的这两个驼峰
We’re going back to these two humps in 1975.
我那年刚好出生
That’s when I was born,
我选了西方国家
and I selected the West.
也就是当今的欧盟国家和北美
That’s the current EU countries and North America.
我们来比较一下剩下的国家和西方国家
Let’s now see how the rest and the West compares
看看哪个更富有
in terms of how rich you are.
这是有能力
These are the people who can afford
坐飞机去国外度假的人
to fly abroad with an airplane for a vacation.
1975年 这样的人只有30%
In 1975, only 30 percent of them lived
生活在欧盟和北美之外
outside EU and North America.
但时过境迁了
But this has changed, okay?
首先 我们来看到今天发生了怎样的变化 即2014年
So first, let’s look at the change up till today, 2014.
现在是双方平分秋色
Today it’s 50/50.
如今西方独占鳌头的时代已经结束了
The Western domination is over, as of today.
不错 那么接下来会发生什么呢
That’s nice. So what’s going to happen next?
看到大驼峰没有 有没有看到它是怎么移动的
Do you see the big hump? Did you see how it moved?
我做了一点实验 我登了IMF 即国际货币基金组织的官网
I did a little experiment. I went to the IMF, International Monetary Fund, website.
他们预测了未来五年内的人均GDP
They have a forecast for the next five years of GDP per capita.
我据此预测了一下未来五年的形势
So I can use that to go five years into the future,
前提是假设每个国家收入差距相等
assuming the income inequality of each country is the same.
我做了这些以后 没有止步不前
I did that, but I went even further.
我利用那些五年数据又往前推了20年
I used those five years for the next 20 years
速度一样 只是做个实验看看会发生什么
with the same speed, just as an experiment what might actually happen.
让我们步入未来
Let’s move into the future.
2020年 57%在其余国家
In 2020, it’s 57 percent in the rest.
2025年 63%
In 2025, 63 percent.
2030年 68% 而到了2035年 西方国家的富人消费者就被没其余国家多了
2030, 68. And in 2035, the West is outnumbered in the rich consumer market.
这只是对未来人均GDP的推测
These are just projections of GDP per capita into the future.
将会有73%的富消费者
Seventy-three percent of the rich consumers
生活在北美和欧洲之外
are going to live outside North America and Europe.
我觉得对于企业来说 在未来用知识量资格证书
So yes, I think it’s a good idea for a company to use this certificate
来确保正确决策也是个不错的办法
to make sure to make fact- based decisions in the future.
非常感谢
Thank you very much.
[掌声]
(Applause)
Bruno Giussani: 汉斯和欧拉·罗斯林
Bruno Giussani: Hans and Ola Rosling!

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视频概述

看起来我们对世界很多严重问题了解不少,可其实我们对真实世界的认识出现了偏差。

听录译者

收集自网络

翻译译者

Philovist

审核员

瞌睡虫儿

视频来源

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Sm5xF-UYgdg

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