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如何不对世界无知 – 译学馆
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如何不对世界无知

How not to be ignorant about the world | Hans and Ola Rosling

Hans Rosling: I’m going to ask you
汉斯·罗斯林:我要问你们
three multiple choice questions.
三个选择题
Use this device. Use this device to answer.
用这个 用这个装置来回答我的问题
The first question is, how did the number
第一个问题是 每年
of deaths per year
由于自然灾害而死亡的
from natural disaster,
人数是多少
how did that change during the last century?
这个数字在上个世纪的变化趋势是怎样的?
Did it more than double,
是比原来的两倍还多
did it remain about the same in the world as a whole,
全世界整体持平
or did it decrease to less than half?
还是减少了一半以上?
Please answer A, B or C.
请选择A B或C
I see lots of answers. This is much faster than I do it at universities.
我看到了很多答案 这比我在大学里问这个问题时收到回答的时间快多了
They are so slow. They keep thinking, thinking, thinking.
他们慢到家了 老是想啊 想啊 想啊的
Oh, very, very good.
啊 很好 很好
And we go to the next question.
下面是第二个问题
So how long did women 30 years old
全世界30岁的女性
in the world go to school:
平均在校时间是多少
seven years, five years or three years?
7年 5年还是3年?
A, B or C? Please answer.
A B还是C 请选择
And we go to the next question.
然后下一个问题
In the last 20 years, how did the percentage
在过去的20年内
of people in the world
全球赤贫的人口比例
who live in extreme poverty change?
是如何变化的?
Extreme poverty — not having enough food for the day.
赤贫是指一个人没有足够的食物满足其一天的需求
Did it almost double,
是几乎是原来的两倍
did it remain more or less the same,
还是基本持平
or did it halve?
亦或是减半了?
A, B or C?
A B还是C
Now, answers.
现在来公布答案
You see,
你看
deaths from natural disasters in the world,
全世界死于自然灾害的人数
you can see it from this graph here,
你可以从这个图中看出
from 1900 to 2000.
从1900到2000年
In 1900, there was about half a million people
在1900年 每年大约50万人
who died every year from natural disasters:
死于自然灾害
floods, earthquakes, volcanic eruption, whatever, droughts.
洪水 地震 火山爆发 等等等等 干旱
And then, how did that change?
然后呢 这个数据有了什么变化
Gapminder asked the public in Sweden.
Gapminder在向瑞典人问了这么一个问题
This is how they answered.
这是他们的回答
The Swedish public answered like this:
瑞典民众回答的分布是这样的
Fifty percent thought it had doubled,
50%的人认为人数翻倍了
38 percent said it’s more or less the same,
38%认为基本不变
12 said it had halved.
12%认为减半了
This is the best data from the disaster researchers,
而这是灾害研究者收集的最佳数据
and it goes up and down,
它时高时低
and it goes to the Second World War,
第二次世界大战时上升
and after that it starts to fall and it keeps falling
之后就一直下降 下降
and it’s down to much less than half.
降了远远低于一半
The world has been much, much more capable
世界随着时间的推移
as the decades go by
越来越能够
to protect people from this, you know.
保护人们不受自然灾害侵袭 你知道的
So only 12 percent of the Swedes know this.
而仅仅12%的瑞典人知道这一点
So I went to the zoo and I asked the chimps.
然后我去了动物园问黑猩猩们
(Laughter) (Applause)
[大笑][鼓掌]
The chimps don’t watch the evening news,
黑猩猩们从来不看晚间新闻
so the chimps,
它们
they choose by random, so the Swedes answer worse than random.
随机选择 而瑞典人的回答情况比随机选择还差
Now how did you do?
你们做的咋样?
That’s you.
这是你们的答案
You were beaten by the chimps.
你们被黑猩猩们打败了
(Laughter)
[大笑]
But it was close.
但是很接近啦
You were three times better than the Swedes,
要知道你们比瑞典人好了三倍
but that’s not enough.
但是这还不够
You shouldn’t compare yourself to Swedes.
你们不能跟瑞典人比
You must have higher ambitions in the world.
你们得有更高的追求
Let’s look at the next answer here: women in school.
看看下一个问题的答案:女性的受教育年数
Here, you can see men went eight years.
这儿 你们可以看到男性平均受教育年数有8年
How long did women go to school?
女性受教育年数有多少?
Well, we asked the Swedes like this,
好吧 我们也问了瑞典人这个问题
and that gives you a hint, doesn’t it?
这给了你们点提示 有没有?
The right answer is probably the one
正确答案应该是
the fewest Swedes picked, isn’t it?
瑞典人选的最少的那个 对吧
(Laughter)
[大笑]
Let’s see, let’s see. Here we come.
来看看 来看看 答案来了
Yes, yes, yes, women have almost caught up.
是的 是的 是的 女性几乎追上了男性
This is the U.S. public.
这是美国人的答案
And this is you. Here you come.
而这是你们的答案
Ooh.
噢……
Well, congratulations, you’re twice as good as the Swedes,
好吧 恭喜你们 你们有瑞典人两倍棒啦
but you don’t need me —
但你们不用我提醒……
So how come? I think it’s like this,
所以 这是怎么回事 我觉得是这样的
that everyone is aware that there are countries
所有人都知道全球范围内
and there are areas
在某些国家和地区
where girls have great difficulties.
女孩们会遇到很多的阻力
They are stopped when they go to school,
来阻止她们上学
and it’s disgusting.
这很令人作呕
But in the majority of the world,
但在全球大部分地区
where most people in the world live,
大部分人中
most countries, girls today go to school
大部分国家里 女孩们的受教育年数
as long as boys, more or less.
和男孩们是差不多的
That doesn’t mean that gender equity is achieved,
这不代表着已经实现了性别平等
not at all.
完全算不上
They still are confined to terrible, terrible limitations,
她们仍然被那些糟糕的限制所束缚者
but schooling is there in the world today.
但是如今已经在全球都实现了学校教育了
Now, we miss the majority.
现在 我们忽视了主流情况
When you answer, you answer according to the worst places,
当你们作答时 你们是根据了那些最糟糕地区的状况做出判断
and there you are right, but you miss the majority.
从那个角度来看你们是对的 但是你们忽视了主流
What about poverty?
那么贫穷问题呢
Well, it’s very clear that poverty here
好吧 很清楚了
was almost halved,
赤贫状况基本上减少了一半
and in U.S., when we asked the public,
而在美国 我们问了这个问题
only five percent got it right.
只有5%的人答对了
And you?
而你们呢
Ah, you almost made it to the chimps.
啊 你们马上就要达到黑猩猩的水平了
(Laughter) (Applause)
[大笑][鼓掌]
That little, just a few of you!
你们中间 就这么点人答对了!
There must be preconceived ideas, you know.
你们肯定有了一些先入为主的认知
And many in the rich countries,
而很多在发达国家的人
they think that oh, we can never end extreme poverty.
他们觉得 啊 我们永远不能终结赤贫
Of course they think so,
他们当然这么觉得了
because they don’t even know what has happened.
因为他们根本不知道过去都发生了什么
The first thing to think about the future
了解未来的第一件事
is to know about the present.
是了解现在
These questions were a few of the first ones
这些问题选自我们
in the pilot phase of the Ignorance Project
Gapminder基金会扫盲计划在试验阶段
in Gapminder Foundation that we run,
提出的前置问题
and it was started, this project, last year
而这个计划 在去年 由我的老板
by my boss, and also my son, Ola Rosling. (Laughter)
也是我的儿子 欧拉·罗斯林 开始实施 [大笑]
He’s cofounder and director,
他是这个项目的共同创办人和指挥者
and he wanted, Ola told me
欧拉告诉我他希望
we have to be more systematic
在全力扫盲的时候
when we fight devastating ignorance.
得采用更系统的方法
So already the pilots reveal this,
所以 既然试验项目已经
that so many in the public score worse than random,
揭示了民众得分甚至不如随机选择
so we have to think about preconceived ideas,
那么我们必须好好思考一下那些先入为主的观念
and one of the main preconceived ideas
而一个最广为人知的先入为主的观念
is about world income distribution.
是关于世界收入分布的
Look here. This is how it was in 1975.
看这里 这是1975年的收入分布
It’s the number of people on each income,
这是按收入划分的人数统计图
from one dollar a day —
从每天1美元
(Applause)
[掌声]
See, there was one hump here,
看到了吗 在1美元这里
around one dollar a day,
有一个隆起
and then there was one hump here
这边是另一个隆起
somewhere between 10 and 100 dollars.
在人均10美元到100美元中间
The world was two groups.
世界分为两个集团
It was a camel world, like a camel with two humps,
这就是个骆驼的世界 双峰的骆驼
the poor ones and the rich ones,
穷人和富人
and there were fewer in between.
还有一小部分人位于两者之间
But look how this has changed:
但是看看之后的变化
As I go forward, what has changed,
当我把时间向前拨动时 变化了的是
the world population has grown,
世界人口增加了
and the humps start to merge.
而驼峰开始合并
The lower humps merged with the upper hump,
较低的隆起与较高的隆起合并了
and the camel dies and we have a dromedary world
双峰骆驼死了 生出来了
with one hump only.
一个单峰骆驼
The percent in poverty has decreased.
贫穷人口比例下降
Still it’s appalling
但数据仍然骇人听闻
that so many remain in extreme poverty.
仍有这么多人生活在赤贫中
We still have this group, almost a billion, over there,
这部分人群仍有10亿人口
but that can be ended now.
但是这些可以被终止
The challenge we have now
我们现在面对的挑战
is to get away from that, understand where the majority is,
是抛开那些问题 来理解什么是主流情况
and that is very clearly shown in this question.
而答案已经在问题中写得很明白
We asked, what is the percentage of the world’s
我们询问了
one-year-old children who have got those
全球一岁儿童中
basic vaccines against measles and other things
有多少孩子 接受了我们已经接受了很多年的
that we have had for many years:
基本疫苗的注射 如麻疹疫苗等等
20, 50 or 80 percent?
20% 50%还是80%
Now, this is what the U.S. public and the Swedish answered.
这是美国和瑞典人的答案
Look at the Swedish result:
看看瑞典人的结果
you know what the right answer is.
你们就该知道正确答案了
(Laughter)
[大笑]
Who the heck is a professor of global health in that country?
谁是瑞典的世界健康教授 给我站出来
Well, it’s me. It’s me.
好吧 是我 就是我
(Laughter)
[大笑]
It’s very difficult, this. It’s very difficult.
这个很困难 好吗 很困难的
(Applause)
[掌声]
However, Ola’s approach
无论如何 奥拉设计了一个方法
to really measure what we know made headlines,
来衡量我们知道的哪些知识能够成为头条新闻
and CNN published these results on their web
而CNN在网站上公布了这些结果
and they had the questions there, millions answered,
他们的网站上 几百万人回答了这些问题
and I think there were about 2,000 comments,
大概有2000条评论
and this was one of the comments.
下边是其中一条评论
“I bet no member of the media passed the test,” he said.
我打赌没有媒体工作者能答对这些问题 他说
So Ola told me, “Take these devices.
欧拉告诉我 带上这些发明
You are invited to media conferences.
你被邀请参加媒体见面会了
Give it to them and measure what the media know.”
在那里用这些发明测测他们都知道什么
And ladies and gentlemen,
女士们 先生们
for the first time, the informal results
有史以来第一次
from a conference with U.S. media.
来自和美国媒体会面的非正式数据
And then, lately, from the European Union media.
之后 还有欧盟媒体数据
(Laughter)
[笑声]
You see, the problem is not that people
你看 问题不在于
don’t read and listen to the media.
人们不接收媒体信息
The problem is that the media doesn’t know themselves.
而在于媒体工作者们自己就不知道啥
What shall we do about this, Ola?
欧拉 你说这该怎么办
Do we have any ideas?
有什么主意么
(Applause)
[掌声]
Ola Rosling: Yes, I have an idea, but first,
欧拉·罗司斯林:我有个主意 但首先
I’m so sorry that you were beaten by the chimps.
先让我对你们被黑猩猩打败而表达遗憾
Fortunately, I will be able to comfort you
幸运的是 我同样也要安慰安慰你们
by showing why it was not your fault, actually.
因为这的确不是你们的问题
Then, I will equip you with some tricks
然后 我会教给你们一些技巧
for beating the chimps in the future.
让你们在将来可以打败黑猩猩们
That’s basically what I will do.
这就是我接下来主要要做的
But first, let’s look at why are we so ignorant,
首先 让我们看看为什么我们如此无知
and it all starts in this place.
一切都是从这里开始的
It’s Hudiksvall. It’s a city in northern Sweden.
这是胡迪克斯瓦尔 一座瑞典西部的城市
It’s a neighborhood where I grew up,
这是我长大的街区
and it’s a neighborhood with a large problem.
也是一个问题比较严重的街区
Actually, it has exactly the same problem
实际上 同样的问题
which existed in all the neighborhoods
也存在在所有的街区中
where you grew up as well.
包括你成长的环境
It was not representative. Okay?
这不是个例
It gave me a very biased view
它让我们对这个星球上的生活
of how life is on this planet.
产生偏见
So this is the first piece of the ignorance puzzle.
这就是无知的第一个答案
We have a personal bias.
我们有个人偏见
We have all different experiences
每个人都有不同的经历
from communities and people we meet,
我们来自不同的社区 遇到过不同的人
and on top of this, we start school,
最重要的是 我们还要上学
and we add the next problem.
这就有了另一个问题
Well, I like schools,
嗯 我喜欢学校
but teachers tend to teach outdated worldviews,
但老师们往往教授的是过时的世界观
because they learned something when they went to school,
因为他们掌握的是多年前他们上学时的知识
and now they describe this world to the students
然后他们又把这些教给了学生
without any bad intentions,
当然不带任何恶意
and those books, of course, that are printed
当然还有这些书 因为世界日新月异
are outdated in a world that changes.
所以它们被刊印出来的时候已经过时了
And there is really no practice
而根本没有办法
to keep the teaching material up to date.
能保证教学材料紧跟时代的脚步
So that’s what we are focusing on.
所以这就是我们的关注点
So we have these outdated facts
我们掌握着过时的知识
added on top of our personal bias.
加上个人偏见
What happens next is news, okay?
结果就是新闻了 对吧
An excellent journalist knows how to pick
一个出色的记者知道怎么挑出
the story that will make headlines,
能够出现在头版头条的故事
and people will read it because it’s sensational.
而因为新闻带来的轰动效应人们就会去看
Unusual events are more interesting, no?
稀奇的事件才更有趣 是吧
And they are exaggerated,
还得有夸张
and especially things we’re afraid of.
还有尤其我们都害怕的东西
A shark attack on a Swedish person
一条鲨鱼袭击了一个瑞典人
will get headlines for weeks in Sweden.
这能在瑞典新闻头条上呆上几个礼拜
So these three skewed sources of information
所以这是三条歪曲的信息来源
were really hard to get away from.
实在很难摆脱掉
They kind of bombard us
它们无时无刻不在轰炸我们
and equip our mind with a lot of strange ideas,
让我们的脑袋里充满了奇怪的想法
and on top of it we put the very thing
顶端是最重要的 是让人类与其他动物区别开来的特质
that makes us humans, our human intuition.
人类直觉
It was good in evolution.
它在进化过程中很有用
It helped us generalize
帮助我们总结
and jump to conclusions very, very fast.
并十分快速地得出结论
It helped us exaggerate what we were afraid of,
它夸大我们害怕的事物
and we seek causality where there is none,
让我们在毫无关系的事物中找寻联系
and we then get an illusion of confidence
让我们对自己产生虚假的信心
where we believe that we are the best car drivers,
比如每个人都相信自己是最好的司机
above the average.
非同一般
Everybody answered that question,
每个人都会说
“Yeah, I drive cars better.”
是的 我开的更好
Okay, this was good evolutionarily,
可以说 就进化而言这是优点
but now when it comes to the worldview,
但是现在 在树立世界观的问题上
it is the exact reason why it’s upside down.
这就是为什么认知与事实完全相反
The trends that are increasing are instead falling,
我们以为上升的趋势实际上在下降
and the other way around,
反之亦然
and in this case, the chimps use our intuition against us,
而且在这个案例中 黑猩猩利用我们的直觉打败了我们
and it becomes our weakness instead of our strength.
直觉成了我们的弱点 而非优势
It was supposed to be our strength, wasn’t it?
它本来应该是优势的 不是吗?
So how do we solve such problems?
所以我们怎么解决这种问题?
First, we need to measure it,
首先 我们要衡量它
and then we need to cure it.
然后 我们治愈它
So by measuring it we can understand
通过衡量它 我们能够
what is the pattern of ignorance.
理解无知的模式
We started the pilot last year,
我们去年开始做试验项目
and now we’re pretty sure that we will encounter
而现在我们非常确信我们会面对
a lot of ignorance across the whole world,
全世界数不清的无知
and the idea is really to
而这个主意
scale it up to all domains
根据不同地区和国家的
or dimensions of global development,
不同领域或方面而成比例升高
such as climate, endangered species, human rights,
好像气候问题 濒危物种 人权问题
gender equality, energy, finance.
性别平等 能源 金融
All different sectors have facts,
所有这些领域都有一些知识
and there are organizations trying to spread
有组织正在致力于提高人们
awareness about these facts.
对这些知识的了解度
So I’ve started actually contacting some of them,
所以我已经开始接触其中一些组织
like WWF and Amnesty International and UNICEF,
比如世界自然基金会 国际特赦组织 联合国儿童基金会
and asking them, what are your favorite facts
问他们 你最喜欢
which you think the public doesn’t know?
而公众不知道的知识有哪些
Okay, I gather those facts.
好了 我收集好了那些知识
Imagine a long list with, say, 250 facts.
现在想象一张冗长的单子 上面写了 比如 250个小知识
And then we poll the public
然后我们让民众投票
and see where they score worst.
看看他们得分最低的点在哪里
So we get a shorter list
所以我们生成了一张短一点的单子
with the terrible results,
上面是得分糟糕的部分
like some few examples from Hans,
就像汉斯的实验中的例子
and we have no problem finding these kinds
想要得到得分糟糕的部分
of terrible results.
总是不费力的
Okay, this little shortlist, what are we going to do with it?
好了 有了这份短清单 接下来我们要做什么呢
Well, we turn it into a knowledge certificate,
我们把它改成了一个知识量资格证
a global knowledge certificate,
全球知识量资格证
which you can use, if you’re a large organization,
在大型组织
a school, a university, or maybe a news agency,
学校 大学 或者新闻机构中
to certify yourself as globally knowledgeable.
你都可以用它来证明你对全球知识的了解程度
Basically meaning, we don’t hire people
基本上就意味着 我们不招知识量只有
who score like chimpanzees.
黑猩猩级别的人
Of course you shouldn’t.
当然也不能这么做
So maybe 10 years from now,
所以可能今后10年
if this project succeeds,
如果这个项目成功了
you will be sitting in an interview
可能你在面试时
having to fill out this crazy global knowledge.
就得填写这张丧心病狂的全球知识了解程度测试
So now we come to the practical tricks.
现在我们来谈谈实际操作
How are you going to succeed?
你怎么成功
There is, of course, one way,
当然 有个方法就是
which is to sit down late nights
深夜坐在书桌前
and learn all the facts by heart
看所有有关报道
by reading all these reports.
然后用心记住每一个知识
That will never happen, actually.
实际上这不可能
Not even Hans thinks that’s going to happen.
就算汉斯相信也不可能
People don’t have that time.
人们根本没那么多时间
People like shortcuts, and here are the shortcuts.
人们都喜欢捷径 而在这个问题上还真有捷径可走
We need to turn our intuition into strength again.
我们得让直觉重新变成优势
We need to be able to generalize.
我们要拥有总结的能力
So now I’m going to show you some tricks
那么现在我教你们几个小技巧
where the misconceptions are turned around
可以用拇指规则
into rules of thumb.
直接将错误的观念变成正确的
Let’s start with the first misconception.
我们来看第一个错误观念
This is very widespread.
它传播非常广泛
Everything is getting worse.
一切都在变糟
You heard it. You thought it yourself.
你听到了 心里默默想着
The other way to think is, most things improve.
另一种思考方式是 绝大多数事情变好了
So you’re sitting with a question in front of you
你坐在第一个问题面前
and you’re unsure. You should guess “improve.”
不确定答案是什么 那你就猜“好转”
Okay? Don’t go for the worse.
行不 不要选“变糟”
That will help you score better on our tests.
这样会让你测试得分更高的
(Applause)
[掌声]
That was the first one.
刚刚是第一个
There are rich and poor
世界上有穷人有富人
and the gap is increasing.
贫富差距在逐渐拉大
It’s a terrible inequality.
糟糕的不平等
Yeah, it’s an unequal world,
对 这是个不平等的世界
but when you look at the data, it’s one hump.
但是你看看数据 这是单峰
Okay? If you feel unsure,
好吗 你不确定
go for “the most people are in the middle.”
那就选“大多数人处于中间区域”
That’s going to help you get the answer right.
这样会更容易选出正确答案
Now, the next preconceived idea is
现在 下一个先入为主的观念是
first countries and people need to be very, very rich
第一世界的国家和人民只有变得很有钱
to get the social development
才能带来社会发展
like girls in school and be ready for natural disasters.
比如女孩儿可以上学 会受到自然灾难的冲击
No, no, no. That’s wrong.
不不不 错了
Look: that huge hump in the middle
看 在那些处于中间的大驼峰位置的国家里
already have girls in school.
女孩儿已经可以上学了
So if you are unsure, go for the
所以如果你不确定
“the majority already have this,”
就选“大部分已经实现了这一制度”
like electricity and girls in school, these kinds of things.
比如供电 允许女孩儿上学 等等
They’re only rules of thumb,
全都只是靠的拇指规则
so of course they don’t apply to everything,
当然这条规则不是万能的
but this is how you can generalize.
但是这是总结的方法
Let’s look at the last one.
我们来看最后一题
If something, yes, this is a good one,
这个很不错
sharks are dangerous.
鲨鱼很危险
No — well, yes, but they are not so important
不是——哦不 是的 但在全球数据里面
in the global statistics, that is what I’m saying.
他们还没那么重要 这就是我要说的
I actually, I’m very afraid of sharks.
事实上我很怕鲨鱼
So as soon as I see a question about things I’m afraid of,
所以一旦我看到有关我害怕的东西的问题
which might be earthquakes, other religions,
可能是地震 其他宗教
maybe I’m afraid of terrorists or sharks,
我还害怕恐怖分子或者鲨鱼
anything that makes me feel,
凡是让我觉得……
assume you’re going to exaggerate the problem.
假设你要夸大这个问题
That’s a rule of thumb.
这是拇指规则
Of course there are dangerous things that are also great.
当然还有些危险的事情也很大
Sharks kill very, very few. That’s how you should think.
鲨鱼杀人案发生得非常非常少 你得这样想
With these four rules of thumb,
有了这四条拇指规则
you could probably answer better than the chimps,
你就能答得比猩猩好了
because the chimps cannot do this.
因为猩猩不会拇指规则
They cannot generalize these kinds of rules.
他们无法总结规则
And hopefully we can turn your world around
希望我们能帮你修正世界观
and we’re going to beat the chimps. Okay?
然后去打败黑猩猩 怎么样
(Applause)
[掌声]
That’s a systematic approach.
这就是一个系统方法
Now the question, is this important?
现在问题来了 这重要吗
Yeah, it’s important to understand poverty,
当然了 理解贫穷
extreme poverty and how to fight it,
赤贫和如何对付它
and how to bring girls in school.
还有如何扩大女孩受教育权利很重要
When we realize that actually it’s succeeding, we can understand it.
当意识到实际上我们正在取得胜利时 我们就能理解它们了
But is it important for everyone else
但这个方法对于那些关心富人的人
who cares about the rich end of this scale?
是否也重要呢
I would say yes, extremely important,
我会说 是的 极其重要
for the same reason.
原因是一样的
If you have a fact-based worldview of today,
如果你对当今世界的观念是基于事实形成的
you might have a chance to understand
那你就可能会明白
what’s coming next in the future.
未来将会发生什么
We’re going back to these two humps in 1975.
我们再来看看1975年的这两个驼峰
That’s when I was born,
我那年刚好出生
and I selected the West.
我选了西方国家
That’s the current EU countries and North America.
也就是当今的欧盟国家和北美
Let’s now see how the rest and the West compares
我们来比较一下剩下的国家和西方国家
in terms of how rich you are.
看看哪个更富有
These are the people who can afford
这是有能力
to fly abroad with an airplane for a vacation.
坐飞机去国外度假的人
In 1975, only 30 percent of them lived
1975年 这样的人只有30%
outside EU and North America.
生活在欧盟和北美之外
But this has changed, okay?
但时过境迁了
So first, let’s look at the change up till today, 2014.
首先 我们来看到今天发生了怎样的变化 即2014年
Today it’s 50/50.
现在是双方平分秋色
The Western domination is over, as of today.
如今西方独占鳌头的时代已经结束了
That’s nice. So what’s going to happen next?
不错 那么接下来会发生什么呢
Do you see the big hump? Did you see how it moved?
看到大驼峰没有 有没有看到它是怎么移动的
I did a little experiment. I went to the IMF, International Monetary Fund, website.
我做了一点实验 我登了IMF 即国际货币基金组织的官网
They have a forecast for the next five years of GDP per capita.
他们预测了未来五年内的人均GDP
So I can use that to go five years into the future,
我据此预测了一下未来五年的形势
assuming the income inequality of each country is the same.
前提是假设每个国家收入差距相等
I did that, but I went even further.
我做了这些以后 没有止步不前
I used those five years for the next 20 years
我利用那些五年数据又往前推了20年
with the same speed, just as an experiment what might actually happen.
速度一样 只是做个实验看看会发生什么
Let’s move into the future.
让我们步入未来
In 2020, it’s 57 percent in the rest.
2020年 57%在其余国家
In 2025, 63 percent.
2025年 63%
2030, 68. And in 2035, the West is outnumbered in the rich consumer market.
2030年 68% 而到了2035年 西方国家的富人消费者就被没其余国家多了
These are just projections of GDP per capita into the future.
这只是对未来人均GDP的推测
Seventy-three percent of the rich consumers
将会有73%的富消费者
are going to live outside North America and Europe.
生活在北美和欧洲之外
So yes, I think it’s a good idea for a company to use this certificate
我觉得对于企业来说 在未来用知识量资格证书
to make sure to make fact- based decisions in the future.
来确保正确决策也是个不错的办法
Thank you very much.
非常感谢
(Applause)
[掌声]
Bruno Giussani: Hans and Ola Rosling!
Bruno Giussani: 汉斯和欧拉·罗斯林

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视频概述

看起来我们对世界很多严重问题了解不少,可其实我们对真实世界的认识出现了偏差。

听录译者

收集自网络

翻译译者

Philovist

审核员

瞌睡虫儿

视频来源

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Sm5xF-UYgdg

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