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构建城市之改变全球版图! – 译学馆
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构建城市之改变全球版图!

How megacities are changing the map of the world | Parag Khanna

我想让各位重新想象地球生命的组织架构
I want you to reimagine how life is organized on earth.
把整个星球当作我们的身体
Think of the planet like a human body that we inhabit.
它的骨骼就是交通系统 有公路、铁路、
The skeleton is the transportation system of roads and railways,
桥梁、隧道、航线、海港
bridges and tunnels, air and seaports
这些让我们得以在大陆间穿行
that enable our mobility across the continents.
驱动人体的血液循环系统
The vascular system that powers the body
就是石油、天然气管道 还有电网
are the oil and gas pipelines and electricity grids.
它们分配能源
that distribute energy.
主管通讯的神经系统
And the nervous system of communications
就是网络、电缆、卫星、电话、广播
is the Internet cables, satellites, cellular networks
它们让人类共享信息
and data centers that allow us to share information.
这个无限扩张的基础设施网络
This ever-expanding infrastructural matrix
已经包含了6400万公里的公路
already consists of 64 million kilometers of roads,
400万公里的铁路
four million kilometers of railways,
200万公里的管道
two million kilometers of pipelines
还有100万公里的网络电缆
and one million kilometers of Internet cables.
国界又如何呢?
What about international borders?
国界的总长度不到50万公里
We have less than 500,000 kilometers of borders.
让我们绘制一幅更好的世界地图
Let’s build a better map of the world.
我们可以从打破旧的流言开始
And we can start by overcoming some ancient mythology.
有一个说法是历史系学生很熟悉的:
There’s a saying with which all students of history are familiar:
地理就是宿命
“Geography is destiny.”
听起来好沉重 对吧?
Sounds so grave, doesn’t it?
这就是句宿命论的格言
It’s such a fatalistic adage.
它告诉我们 内陆的国家注定就是贫穷的
It tells us that landlocked countries are condemned to be poor,
小国家没法逃脱大邻居的控制
that small countries cannot escape their larger neighbors,
漫长的距离是无法逾越的
that vast distances are insurmountable.
但是在我的每次环球旅行中
But every journey I take around the world,
我看到一个更伟大的力量席卷地球:
I see an even greater force sweeping the planet:
互联性
connectivity.
这个全球的互联革命 它所有的形式
The global connectivity revolution, in all of its forms —
交通、能源、通信
transportation, energy and communications —
让一切获得了质变 包括人类的流动性
has enabled such a quantum leap in the mobility of people,
还有商品、资源、知识
of goods, of resources, of knowledge,
以至于我们无法 将地理与这些因素分立开来
such that we can no longer even think of geography as distinct from it.
事实上 我认为这两股力量是融汇合一的
In fact, I view the two forces as fusing together
我把它称为“互联地理”
into what I call “connectography.”
互联地理代表了质的飞跃
Connectography represents a quantum leap
包括人类、资源和思路的流动性
in the mobility of people, resources and ideas,
然而它是一次进化
but it is an evolution,
这种全球进化是从政治地理
an evolution of the world from political geography,
我们依照法律分割世界的方式
which is how we legally divide the world,
转变为功能地理
to functional geography,
我们实际运用世界的方式
which is how we actually use the world,
从国家与边界的讨论 转为基础设施与供应链的讨论
from nations and borders, to infrastructure and supply chains.
我们的地球系统正在进化
Our global system is evolving
从19世纪垂直一体化的帝国
from the vertically integrated empires of the 19th century,
变成20世纪横向相互依存的国家
through the horizontally interdependent nations of the 20th century,
直到21世纪的国际网络化文明
into a global network civilization in the 21st century.
互联而非主权
Connectivity, not sovereignty,
已经成为人类的组织原则
has become the organizing principle of the human species.
(掌声)
(Applause)
我们正在变成这种国际网络化文明
We are becoming this global network civilization
因为我们就在建造它
because we are literally building it.
全世界的国防预算和军事开销总和
All of the world’s defense budgets and military spending taken together
每年接近两万亿美元
total just under two trillion dollars per year.
与此同时 国际的基础设施建设
Meanwhile, our global infrastructure spending
预计会突破每年九万亿美元
is projected to rise to nine trillion dollars per year
就在接下来的十年时间
within the coming decade.
其实理应如此
And, well, it should.
我们所利用的基础设施配置
We have been living off an infrastructure stock
只够三十亿世界人口使用
meant for a world population of three billion,
而我们的人口 要超过七十亿朝八十亿迈进
as our population has crossed seven billion to eight billion
最终会达到九十亿甚至更多
and eventually nine billion and more.
根据以往经验 我们应该花费大约一万亿美金
As a rule of thumb, we should spend about one trillion dollars
为了满足每十亿人口的基本基础设施需求
on the basic infrastructure needs of every billion people in the world.
亚洲的基础设施领先于全球是毫无疑问的
Not surprisingly, Asia is in the lead.
在2015年 中国宣布成立
In 2015, China announced the creation
亚洲基础设施投资银行
of the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank,
它与一系列其它组织一道
which together with a network of other organizations
旨在建设一个钢铁与丝绸的商路网
aims to construct a network of iron and silk roads,
从上海延伸到里斯本
stretching from Shanghai to Lisbon.
而随着这个地表工程的展开
And as all of this topographical engineering unfolds,
我们可能会在未来40年 花更多钱建设基础设施
we will likely spend more on infrastructure in the next 40 years,
未来的40年 会比以往4000年
we will build more infrastructure in the next 40 years,
建造更多的基础设施
than we have in the past 4,000 years.
现在让我们停下来思考思考
Now let’s stop and think about it for a minute.
我们花了这么多钱 来建造这些国际社会的基础
Spending so much more on building the foundations of global society
而非发明拆毁这些的工具
rather than on the tools to destroy it
这可能有深远的后果
can have profound consequences.
连通性是我们优化
Connectivity is how we optimize the distribution
全球人民和资源分布的方法
of people and resources around the world.
这是人类做到“1+1>2”的办法
It is how mankind comes to be more than just the sum of its parts.
我相信这是正在发生的事
I believe that is what is happening.
互联性在21世纪有另一个附属的超级浪潮:
Connectivity has a twin megatrend in the 21st century:
全球范围的城市化
planetary urbanization.
城市是最能定义我们的基础设施
Cities are the infrastructures that most define us.
到2030年世界人口超过三分之二
By 2030, more than two thirds of the world’s population
会住在城市里
will live in cities.
这些可不只是地图上的小点点
And these are not mere little dots on the map,
他们是延伸上百公里的群岛
but they are vast archipelagos stretching hundreds of kilometers.
我们现在在温哥华
Here we are in Vancouver,
卡斯卡迪亚走廊的起点
at the head of the Cascadia Corridor
它一直往南延伸通过美国边境直到西雅图
that stretches south across the US border to Seattle.
超级科技中心——硅谷
The technology powerhouse of Silicon Valley
北起旧金山 南至圣何塞
begins north of San Francisco down to San Jose
一路跨过海湾到奥克兰
and across the bay to Oakland.
洛杉矶城现在已经扩张到了圣迭戈
The sprawl of Los Angeles now passes San Diego
甚至跨过墨西哥边境到了蒂华纳
across the Mexican border to Tijuana.
圣迭戈和蒂华纳现在已经共享一个机场了
San Diego and Tijuana now share an airport terminal
你可以从机场直接到两个国家之一
where you can exit into either country.
最终 一个高速铁路网可能连接整个太平洋脊柱:
Eventually, a high-speed rail network may connect the entire Pacific spine.
美国东北部的人口稠密区 始于波士顿跨过纽约
America’s northeastern megalopolis begins in Boston through New York
直到费城还有华盛顿
and Philadelphia to Washington.
这里有超过五千万人口
It contains more than 50 million people
也有计划建设一个高铁网络
and also has plans for a high-speed rail network.
但是只有在亚洲我们才真正看到大城市的互联
But Asia is where we really see the megacities coming together.
从东京经过名古屋到大阪这一条延绵的光带
This continuous strip of light from Tokyo through Nagoya to Osaka
有着超过八千万的人口
contains more than 80 million people
承载着大部分的日本经济
and most of Japan’s economy.
这就是世界上最大的特大城市
It is the world’s largest megacity.
目前是的
For now.
然而在中国特大城市群正在诞生
But in China, megacity clusters are coming together
人口数量可达到一亿
with populations reaching 100 million people.
北京附近的渤海湾
The Bohai Rim around Beijing,
上海附近的长江三角洲
The Yangtze River Delta around Shanghai
还有珠江三角洲
and the Pearl River Delta,
从香港向北延伸至广州
stretching from Hong Kong north to Guangzhou.
在中部地区
And in the middle,
重庆的成都特大城市群
the Chongqing-Chengdu megacity cluster,
这里的地理足迹几乎可以与
whose geographic footprint is almost the same size
同等大小的奥地利相媲美
as the country of Austria.
而且这些特大城市群中的任一个
And any number of these megacity clusters
都有将近两万亿美金的国内生产总值
has a GDP approaching two trillion dollars —
这几乎跟现在的印度一样了
that’s almost the same as all of India today.
所以想象一下 如果国际的外交组织比如G20
So imagine if our global diplomatic institutions, such as the G20,
把会员资格按照经济规模来评定
were to base their membership on economic size
而非按照主权国家
rather than national representation.
有一些中国的特大城市 就可以入选并且有自己的席位
Some Chinese megacities may be in and have a seat at the table,
然而另一些完整的国家 比如阿根廷或印度尼西亚就会落选
while entire countries, like Argentina or Indonesia would be out.
再看看印度 它的人口数很快就要超过中国
Moving to India, whose population will soon exceed that of China,
它同样有一些特大城市群
it too has a number of megacity clusters,
比如说德里首都地区
such as the Delhi Capital Region
还有孟买地区
and Mumbai.
在中东地区
In the Middle East,
大德黑兰地区正在吸收伊朗三分之一的人口
Greater Tehran is absorbing one third of Iran’s population.
埃及八千万人口中的大部分
Most of Egypt’s 80 million people
都住在开罗和亚历山大城之间的走廊地区
live in the corridor between Cairo and Alexandria.
而在海湾地区一连串的城邦在形成
And in the gulf, a necklace of city-states is forming,
从巴林和卡塔尔
from Bahrain and Qatar,
穿过阿联酋到阿曼首都马斯喀特
through the United Arab Emirates to Muscat in Oman.
还有拉各斯
And then there’s Lagos,
非洲最大的城市也是尼日利亚的商业中心
Africa’s largest city and Nigeria’s commercial hub.
它计划建设铁路网
It has plans for a rail network
这可以让它成为大西洋沿海走廊的支柱城市
that will make it the anchor of a vast Atlantic coastal corridor,
整条走廊经过贝宁、多哥、加纳
stretching across Benin, Togo and Ghana,
一直到科特迪瓦的首都阿比让
to Abidjan, the capital of the Ivory Coast.
但是这些国家都在拉各斯城郊
But these countries are suburbs of Lagos.
在特大城市构成的世界里
In a megacity world,
国家可以是城市的郊区
countries can be suburbs of cities.
到2030年 世界上会有接近50个这样的特大城市群
By 2030, we will have as many as 50 such megacity clusters in the world.
所以哪幅地图信息更多呢?
So which map tells you more?
是我们传统的地图 标注着分散的200个国家
Our traditional map of 200 discrete nations
挂在大部分的墙上
that hang on most of our walls,
还是这一幅描绘着50个特大城市群的地图?
or this map of the 50 megacity clusters?
其实就算这幅都是不完整的
And yet, even this is incomplete
因为你不可能彻底了解 每一个独立的特大城市
because you cannot understand any individual megacity
除非明白它与其他城市的关联
without understanding its connections to the others.
人们搬迁到城市是为了互相联系
People move to cities to be connected,
而互联性正是城市发展繁荣的原因
and connectivity is why these cities thrive.
不论是哪些城市 像圣保罗、伊斯坦布尔或者莫斯科
Any number of them, such as Sao Paulo or Istanbul or Moscow,
它们的GDP都超过三分之一
has a GDP approaching or exceeding one third of one half
或是接近全国GDP的一半
of their entire national GDP.
然而同等重要的是
But equally importantly,
你不能单独计算它们独立的价值
you cannot calculate any of their individual value
除非理解了人口流动的作用
without understanding the role of the flows of people,
还有资金、科技的流动
of finance, of technology
它们让特大城市得以繁荣
that enable them to thrive.
以南非的豪登省为例
Take the Gauteng province of South Africa,
它包含了约翰内斯堡和南非首都比勒陀利亚
which contains Johannesburg and the capital Pretoria.
它占了南非三分之一以上的GDP
It too represents just over a third of South Africa’s GDP.
但同等重要的是 几乎每一个跨国企业
But equally importantly, it is home to the offices
都选择入驻此地
of almost every single multinational corporation
它们直接为南非注资
that invests directly into South Africa
甚至向整个非洲大陆注资
and indeed, into the entire African continent.
城市渴望成为国际价值链中的一环
Cities want to be part of global value chains.
它们渴望成为国际劳动分工的一环
They want to be part of this global division of labor.
这是城市的思考方式
That is how cities think.
我从没见过一个市长会这样说:
I’ve never met a mayor who said to me,
我想让我的城市与世隔绝
“I want my city to be cut off.”
他们知道 网络就像属于自己国家一样
They know that their cities belong as much
他们的城市也属于全球化网络文明
to the global network civilization as to their home countries.
如今对于很多人来说 城市化造成了大众恐慌
Now, for many people, urbanization causes great dismay.
他们觉得城市正在毁坏地球
They think cities are wrecking the planet.
然而现在
But right now,
有超过200个跨城市学习网络正在发展繁荣
there are more than 200 intercity learning networks thriving.
这数量几乎与所有的跨政府组织
That is as many as the number of intergovernmental organizations
一样多
that we have.
所有的跨城市网络都有一个共同目标
And all of these intercity networks are devoted to one purpose,
也是21世纪人类的首要目标:
mankind’s number one priority in the 21st century:
可持续的城市化
sustainable urbanization.
它有效吗?
Is it working?
让我们看看气候变化情况
Let’s take climate change.
我们很清楚纽约和巴黎的一次次峰会
We know that summit after summit in New York and Paris
并不会减少温室气体排放
is not going to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.
但是我们可以看到在城市之间传输科技
But what we can see is that transferring technology
还有知识、政策等等
and knowledge and policies between cities
的确可以减少经济体的碳排放强度
is how we’ve actually begun to reduce the carbon intensity of our economies.
城市在互相取长补短
Cities are learning from each other.
例如怎么建设零排放建筑
How to install zero-emissions buildings,
怎么实施电动车分享计划
how to deploy electric car-sharing systems.
在中国的大城市
In major Chinese cities,
他们正在实施车辆限行政策
they’re imposing quotas on the number of cars on the streets.
在很多西方城市
In many Western cities,
年轻人甚至都不想开车了
young people don’t even want to drive anymore.
城市曾是问题的一部分
Cities have been part of the problem,
但现在是解决方案的一部分
now they are part of the solution.
社会不平等是可持续城市化的另一个重大挑战
Inequality is the other great challenge to achieving sustainable urbanization.
当我跑遍全世界的特大城市
When I travel through megacities from end to end —
花了许多个日夜
it takes hours and days —
我感受到了悬殊差距造成的悲剧
I experience the tragedy of extreme disparity
就在同一片区域里
within the same geography.
然而国际的金融资产
And yet, our global stock of financial assets
从来没有如此之多
has never been larger,
接近三百万亿美金
approaching 300 trillion dollars.
这几乎是全世界GDP总和的四倍
That’s almost four times the actual GDP of the world.
我们在金融危机后背负了极多的债务
We have taken on such enormous debts since the financial crisis,
但是我们把钱投资在了包容性增长吗?
but have we invested them in inclusive growth?
不 还没有
No, not yet.
只有我们建造了充足、价格实惠的公共住房
Only when we build sufficient, affordable public housing,
只有我们投资建造了 耐用的交通网络
when we invest in robust transportation networks
使得人们可以身体和信息上 都实现互联互通
to allow people to connect to each other both physically and digitally,
我们分离的 城市和社会
that’s when our divided cities and societies
才能开始成为一个整体
will come to feel whole again.
(掌声)
(Applause)
这就是为什么基础建设项目
And that is why infrastructure has just been included
已经被包括在联合国可持续发展目标中
in the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals,
因为它激活了大众生产力
because it enables all the others.
我们的政治经济领袖
Our political and economic leaders
慢慢意识到互联性并不是搞慈善
are learning that connectivity is not charity,
而是一个机会
it’s opportunity.
这就是为什么我们的经济社会必须明白
And that’s why our financial community needs to understand
互联性是21世纪最重要的一种资产
that connectivity is the most important asset class of the 21st century.
如今城市可以让世界更加可持续
Now, cities can make the world more sustainable,
它们让世界更加公正
they can make the world more equitable,
我也相信城市间的互联
I also believe that connectivity between cities
可以让世界更和平
can make the world more peaceful.
如果我们看看那些边境间联系紧密的地区
If we look at regions of the world with dense relations across borders,
我们看到更多的交易和投资
we see more trade, more investment
地区也更稳定
and more stability.
我们都知道二战后欧洲的故事
We all know the story of Europe after World War II,
工业合作推进了发展过程
where industrial integration kicked off a process
最终构成了如今和平的欧盟
that gave rise to today’s peaceful European Union.
而且你们还能看到俄罗斯
And you can see that Russia, by the way,
它是全世界的各强国中互联性最差的国家
is the least connected of major powers in the international system.
这要追溯到很久以前才能解释当今的冲突问题
And that goes a long way towards explaining the tensions today.
与别国利害关系不强的国家
Countries that have less stake in the system
往往不愿冒风险打破这种状态
also have less to lose in disturbing it.
在北美 地图上意义最重大的一条线
In North America, the lines that matter most on the map
并不是美加边境或者美墨边境
are not the US-Canada border or the US-Mexico border,
而是公路、铁路、管道的交织网络
but the dense network of roads and railways and pipelines
还有电力网络 甚至是运河系统
and electricity grids and even water canals
一个和谐的北美联盟因这些而形成
that are forming an integrated North American union.
北美不需要更多的壁垒 它需要更多的连接
North America does not need more walls, it needs more connections.
(掌声)
(Applause)
但是互联性的真正前景 会在殖民统治后的地区体现
But the real promise of connectivity is in the postcolonial world.
这部分地区 它们的边境是历史上最多变的
All of those regions where borders have historically been the most arbitrary
一代又一代领导者
and where generations of leaders
相互的冲突非常激烈
have had hostile relations with each other.
但是一群新的领导者逐渐上位
But now a new group of leaders has come into power
把过往冲突逐渐抹去
and is burying the hatchet.
以东南亚为例 他们准备建设高铁网络
Let’s take Southeast Asia, where high-speed rail networks
连接曼谷到新加坡
are planned to connect Bangkok to Singapore
还有越南到缅甸的商业走廊
and trade corridors from Vietnam to Myanmar.
如今这个6亿人口的地区调配了它的农业资源
Now this region of 600 million people coordinates its agricultural resources
还有工业输出
and its industrial output.
它逐渐进化为我称作的“泛亚洲大同”
It is evolving into what I call a Pax Asiana,
东南亚国家的和平地区
a peace among Southeast Asian nations.
类似的现象在东非也发生了
A similar phenomenon is underway in East Africa,
那里的六个国家
where a half dozen countries
投资建设铁路和多式联运通道
are investing in railways and multimodal corridors
于是内陆的国家可以将商品运输到市场上
so that landlocked countries can get their goods to market.
如今这些国家在调控它们的资源
Now these countries coordinate their utilities
调整它们的投资政策
and their investment policies.
他们同样进化成“泛非洲大同”
They, too, are evolving into a Pax Africana.
我们知道有一个地区可以利用这样的思维方式
One region we know could especially use this kind of thinking
那就是中东地区
is the Middle East.
随着阿拉伯政权的悲剧倒台
As Arab states tragically collapse,
除了开罗、贝鲁特和巴格达等古城外
what is left behind but the ancient cities,
还能留下什么呢?
such as Cairo, Beirut and Baghdad?
事实上 阿拉伯世界的将近4亿人
In fact, the nearly 400 million people of the Arab world
几乎全数城市化了
are almost entirely urbanized.
作为完整的城市或社会
As societies, as cities,
它们的水资源可能丰富或是匮乏
they are either water rich or water poor,
能源可能丰富或是匮乏
energy rich or energy poor.
唯一能够解决这种失调的办法
And the only way to correct these mismatches
并不是通过战争和边境隔离
is not through more wars and more borders,
而是通过更多的管道、运河连接
but through more connectivity of pipelines and water canals.
很可惜 这还不是中东地区的图景
Sadly, this is not yet the map of the Middle East.
但理应如此
But it should be,
一个互联的“泛阿拉伯大同”
a connected Pax Arabia,
从内部互相整合
internally integrated
并与它们的邻居在生产力方面联系:例如欧洲、亚洲和非洲
and productively connected to its neighbors: Europe, Asia and Africa.
如今 看上去互联性并不是我们立即想要的东西
Now, it may not seem like connectivity is what we want right now
尤其对于世界上最动荡的区域
towards the world’s most turbulent region.
但我们由历史规律得知互联性是唯一的方法
But we know from history that more connectivity is the only way
让一个地区获得长期的稳定
to bring about stability in the long run.
因为我们知道在一个又一个地区
Because we know that in region after region,
互联性是新的现实
connectivity is the new reality.
城市和国家在逐渐整合
Cities and countries are learning to aggregate
成为更和平、更繁荣的整体
into more peaceful and prosperous wholes.
但是亚洲才是真正的试金石
But the real test is going to be Asia.
互联性可否克服 远东强国之间
Can connectivity overcome the patterns of rivalry
种种竞争行为呢?
among the great powers of the Far East?
毕竟这里是 第三次世界大战理应爆发的地方
After all, this is where World War III is supposed to break out.
自从二十多年前冷战结束之后
Since the end of the Cold War, a quarter century ago,
至少有六次大规模战争被预测 会在这个地区发生
at least six major wars have been predicted for this region.
但没有一个真正爆发
But none have broken out.
以中国和台湾为例
Take China and Taiwan.
在20世纪90年代 所有人都觉得这是三战的背景
In the 1990s, this was everyone’s leading World War III scenario.
但是自那时起
But since that time,
海峡两岸之间的 贸易和投资额变得非常高
the trade and investment volumes across the straits have become so intense
以至于去年十一月
that last November,
双方领导人举行了一次历史性峰会
leaders from both sides held a historic summit
探讨未来如何实现和平统一
to discuss eventual peaceful reunification.
即使是台湾的一个党派
And even the election of a nationalist party in Taiwan
今年早些时候还主张台湾独立
that’s pro-independence earlier this year
在进行选举时也没有否认这种基础的变革力量
does not undermine this fundamental dynamic.
中日两国之间的敌对关系有更长的历史
China and Japan have an even longer history of rivalry
而且最近在部署海军和空军
and have been deploying their air forces and navies
在岛屿争端中互相展示军力
to show their strength in island disputes.
然而在最近几年
But in recent years,
日本在中国做了历史上最多的对外投资
Japan has been making its largest foreign investments in China.
日本汽车在中国的销量屡创纪录
Japanese cars are selling in record numbers there.
各位猜猜今天永久居住在日本的外国人
And guess where the largest number of foreigners
最多来自哪个国家呢?
residing in Japan today comes from?
你猜对了:就是中国!
You guessed it: China.
中国和印度打过一场大战
China and India have fought a major war
还有三处突出的边界争端问题
and have three outstanding border disputes,
然而如今印度是
but today India is the second largest shareholder
亚投行的第二持股国
in the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank.
他们正在建设一条贸易通路起于印度东北部
They’re building a trade corridor stretching from Northeast India
穿过缅甸和孟加拉国 终于中国华南地区
through Myanmar and Bangladesh to Southern China.
他们的贸易额已经从10年前的大约200亿美元
Their trade volume has grown from 20 billion dollars a decade ago
发展到如今的800亿美元
to 80 billion dollars today.
持有核武器的印度和巴基斯坦打了三场战争
Nuclear-armed India and Pakistan have fought three wars
持续地争夺克什米尔地区
and continue to dispute Kashmir,
但是他们同样在商讨 一个最惠国贸易协定
but they’re also negotiating a most-favored-nation trade agreement
并且希望建设一条管道
and want to complete a pipeline
始于伊朗 穿过巴基斯坦 终于印度
stretching from Iran through Pakistan to India.
让我们再谈谈伊朗
And let’s talk about Iran.
两年前的我们不是觉得 对伊朗的战争根本不可避免吗?
Wasn’t it just two years ago that war with Iran seemed inevitable?
那么为什么现在每个大国 都争着去伊朗做生意呢?
Then why is every single major power rushing to do business there today?
女士们、先生们
Ladies and gentlemen,
我不能担保第三次世界大战 永远不会爆发
I cannot guarantee that World War III will not break out.
但是我们可以清楚的看到 现在它为什么没有爆发
But we can definitely see why it hasn’t happened yet.
即使亚洲一些国家 军力发展速度世界领先
Even though Asia is home to the world’s fastest growing militaries,
同样的国家也互相投资数十亿美金
these same countries are also investing billions of dollars
来建设基础设施和供应链
in each other’s infrastructure and supply chains.
他们更感兴趣的是各自的功能地理特征
They are more interested in each other’s functional geography
而非政治地理特征
than in their political geography.
这就是为什么领导人要三思 从战争边缘后退几步
And that is why their leaders think twice, step back from the brink,
决定去关注经济的合作 而非领土的争端
and decide to focus on economic ties over territorial tensions.
我们常常觉得世界就要崩溃了
So often it seems like the world is falling apart,
但是互联性的增强
but building more connectivity
就是我们把碎片复原的办法
is how we put Humpty Dumpty back together again,
而且复原得比原来更好
much better than before.
当我们通过包装世界
And by wrapping the world
用无缝的互联网络覆盖
in such seamless physical and digital connectivity,
我们发展走向世界
we evolve towards a world
人们可以超越地理限制
in which people can rise above their geographic constraints.
我们就是细胞和血管
We are the cells and vessels
在这个国际网络中脉动
pulsing through these global connectivity networks.
每天 数以亿计的人登上互联网
Everyday, hundreds of millions of people go online
与从未谋面的人共同工作
and work with people they’ve never met.
每年超过十亿人要跨过国家边界
More than one billion people cross borders every year,
而且将会在未来十年升至三十亿
and that’s expected to rise to three billion in the coming decade.
我们不只是互联性的建设者
We don’t just build connectivity,
我们自身就体现了互联
we embody it.
我们是国际网络化文明
We are the global network civilization,
而这是我们的地图
and this is our map.
这幅地图里 地理不再是我们的宿命
A map of the world in which geography is no longer destiny.
与之相对 我们的未来有一条更有希望的新准则:
Instead, the future has a new and more hopeful motto:
连接就是命运!
connectivity is destiny.
谢谢
Thank you.
(掌声)
(Applause)

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视频概述

城市的互联:在科技的飞速发展和推动下,全球互联文明正在崛起。这是一股与强调领土、国界的传统地缘政治完全不同的强大力量。它意味着跨全球基础设施、洲际贸易走廊、跨国供应链将是未来重塑全球商业文明和政治秩序格局的主导力量。对于中国来说,如何实现连接?通过修建基础设施,打造供应链,实现资源、生产、服务、消费的连接。在这场角逐中,中国已领先;中国围绕“一带一路”,已启动一大波连接欧亚大陆的基础设施投资。

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收集自网络

翻译译者

Ljimnn

审核员

与光同尘

视频来源

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=U7y4GlmwPLQ

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