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我们能活多久?

How Long Can We Live?

这个视频是由Squarespace赞助的
This video was sponsored by Squarespace.
你好 这是来自一分钟地球的艾米莉
Hi, this is Emily from MinuteEarth.
听起来不是很恐怖
Not to sound super morbid,
但随着生命的流逝
but with each passing second of life, the cells in our bodies accrue
我们体内的细胞会受到更多损害
a little more damage, which is at least partly why,
这就是为什么随着年龄的增加
as people get older, their odds of dying increase:
细胞死亡的几率也会增加
today, a 40 year-old has 0.3 % chance
如今 40岁的人在第二年死亡的概率是0.3%
of dying in the next year, while a 60-year
然而60岁的人在第二年死亡的概率有1%
old has a 1 % chance of dying in the next year, an 80 year
80岁的人在第二年死亡的概率有5%
old has a 5 percent chance, and
一个100岁的人有50%的死亡机率
a 100-year-old has a 50% chance.
但在这个年代
But around that age,
有证据表明死亡机率趋平
there’s some evidence that the odds of dying level off.
那么 是什么让死亡率曲线趋平?
So, what would make the mortality curve flattenout like that?
一个理论是与自然选择和坏的基因有关
one theory is that it has to do with natural selection and bad genes – the other
另一方面
kind.
假设基因突变在儿童时期是致死的
Take a hypothetical gene mutation that provesfatal during childhood.
因为它会在人类达到可以生殖的年龄前杀死宿主
Because it kills its host before they get old enough to reproduce,
它永远不会被遗传下去
it never gets passed on
自然选择会将其清除
natural selection weeds it out.
另一方面 一种讨厌的会致死的基因突变
On the other hand,
会在人们成年并且生孩子后遗传下去
a nasty mutation that tends to kill people after they grow up and reproduce can get passed on,
但是这样事情就变复杂了
but here ’ s where things get complicated, because human kids depend
因为人类依赖他们的父母生存
on their parents for survival.
因此会导致年幼孩子的父母死亡的基因
So a bad gene that tends to kill
会间接杀死他们的孩子
relatively young adults is also likely to indirectly kill their young kids,
因此也会从基因库中被清除
and thus be weeded from the gene pool, too.
但是一个能杀死稍微年长一些的年轻人的不好的基因
But a bad gene that kills slightly older
有更低的机率间接杀死 他们稍微大点 自立的孩子
adults has a lower chance of indirectly killing their slightly older, more self-sufficient kids,
因此有更低的机率 被清除出基因库
and thus has a lower chance of getting weeded out of the gene pool,
会杀死老年人的基因
and a gene that kills even older adults has an even lower chance
更低的机率杀死他们的孩子
of also killing their kids.
简言之 随着基因攻击的年龄越来越高
In short, natural selection ’ s ability
自然选择消除有害基因的能力 也越来越低
to eliminate harmful genes gets lower and lower as the age at which those genes strike gets higher and higher.
这就可以解释奇怪的死亡率曲线了 就像
And this could explain the weird death ratecurve.
把自然选择想象成一个神奇的保护伞
Like, think of natural selection
可以保护人们免受死神影响
as a magical force field that protects people from the grim reaper,
但是它会随着人们变老而变得微弱
but it gets weaker as people get older,
所以人们的死亡机率会上升 最终
so their odds of dying go up. Eventually,
保护伞完全消失
the force field wears off entirely,
因此在那个死亡率非常高的年代
so while people’s chances of dying at that age are really high,
他们没有进一步上升
they don ’ t go up any further because there ’ s no protection left
因为没有任何保护可以失去
to lose.
如果死亡率还是趋平
And if the death rate really does level out – say,
大约50%的人们
somewhere around 50 percent once we
一旦到了100岁
hit 100 years of age
人类最终能活多长就是一个数字游戏
hit 100 years of age
现在地球上大约有五十万百岁老人
there are about half a million hundred-year-oldson Earth.
如果每年有一半的人死亡
If half of them die each year,
只有15万人会活到105岁
only about 15 thousand will make it to 105, only about
只有500人会达到110岁
500 will make it to 110,
而现在的百岁老人
and odds are none of the current centenarians will beat the
都不会超过122岁老人
old-age record of 122.
但是如果我们计算 今天地球上有77亿人
But if we count all 7.7 billion people living on the planet today,
有15人会打破这个记录
odds are that 15 people will beat that record
一个幸运的人会活到
and one lucky human will live to the ripe
127岁高龄
old age of 127.
这个视频是由Squarespace赞助的
This video was sponsored by Squarespace.
Squarespace可以通过 向你提供来自世界级设计师的、免费和安全的托管
Squarespace lets you turn your idea into a great website
以及没有任何东西补丁或升级的模板
by giving you templates from world-class designers, free and secure hosting,
从而将你的想法变成一个伟大的网站
and nothing to patch or upgrade, ever.
假设你想要制作一个同人小说网站
Say you want to make a fanfiction website
关于一群很老的老人聚在一起
about groups of super-old people who come
为正义而战
together to fight for justice.
你所要做的是去Squarespace.com/MINUTEEARTH
All you have to do is head over to Squarespace.com/MINUTEEARTH
进行免费试用 当你准备发布的时候
for a free trial and when you ’ re ready to launch,
使用MinnuteEarth代码来节省
use the offer code MinuteEarth to save 10 %
你第一次购买网站或者域名的10%
off your first purchase of a website or domain.
有了想法 有了梦想 就去实现它
Think it. Dream it. Make it.
Squarespace与你同行
With Squarespace.

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视频概述

了解我们现在的死亡率与什么有关系

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视频来源

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gxLSTOE5TaM

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