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政权更迭中的暗流 – 译学馆
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政权更迭中的暗流

How Governments Tamper with Foreign Elections: Russia, America, and AI Hacking | Amaryllis Fox

我认为 当前围绕俄罗斯干涉美国选举的言论
So the current conversation around Russia’s involvement in the U.S. election, I think,
正快速发酵 而且很多信息已变得格外明朗
is a quickly unfolding one and there’s a lot of information that has yet to come to light.
不过从广意上讲 尤其对俄罗斯 这再正常不过了
But broadly speaking it’s not unusual for Russia in particular and larger geopolitical
强权大多会最大限度的 对那些在世界舞台上
powers in general to try to influence the outcome of elections that are going to have
可能牵制自己的选举结果施加影响
ramifications for them on the world stage.
当然 美国会继续做他们以前就做过的事情
The United States certainly continues to do this and has done this in the past.
你知道 卡内基•梅隆对1946年至今的选举做过一项有价值的研究
You know, Carnegie Mellon did a really valuable study of elections from 1946 through to current
发现这一期间 世界各国11%的选举活动中
day and found that 11 percent of elections conducted around the world in every country
都有来自俄罗斯或美国的影响
for that entire period of time had influence from either Russia or the United States—and
并且这些例子中 70%的影响来自美国而非俄罗斯
70 percent of those instances of influence were the United States, rather than Russia.
这就像是 当你考虑这件事时
This is something that, actually when you think about it, seems almost irresponsible
在一定程度上来看 不这么做倒有点不负责任
not to do, to a certain extent.
所以 如果美国认为某个国家支持在美本土动武
So if the United States has a perspective around which country is going to sponsor attacks
现政府的哪个候选人不会这么做
here in American territory and which candidate in a given government will not, clearly the
很显然 美国会对其心怀期望
United States is going to have a perspective there.
近期有个相关的例子 有美国撑腰的势力很可能成为战后伊拉克的领导层
A recent example of this, in the context of the U.S., would be leadership in post-conflict Iraq.
显然 伊朗和什叶派武装都对中东地区很感兴趣
Obviously there has been a lot of interest from Iran and Shiite forces within the Middle
后萨达姆时期 巴格达政府想在影响力上获取更大的权力
East in influence now that the government in Baghdad is more up for grabs, post-Saddam era.
在巴格达 对华府想要什叶派武装发挥多大作用 美国自有其主张
And the United States has a perspective around how much Shiite influence Washington would like to see in Baghdad.
这是一个事例
That’s one example.
世界上每个重要战略要地的每次选举 美国 俄罗斯
Every election in every major strategic territory around the world, the United States, Russia,
和其他多数政权对希望哪个候选人获胜
and most other world powers have a perspective around which candidate they would like to
不希望哪个候选人上台 都自有其观点
see win and which they wouldn’t.
现在 一国政府想将自己的主张在那个国家的选民身上推广到什么程度
Now the extent to which a government is willing to push that perspective on the electorate
就是法律上的事儿了
of that country is a matter of law.
那样做是有禁区的 当一国政权越线时 他们就违反了国际法
And there are lines that, when a foreign power steps over them, they’re in breach of international law.
世界上每个主要政权 包括我们自己 在上个世纪都做过越线的事
There are certainly instances of every major world power, including our own, having overstepped
(情况)直到近几年才有所好转
those lines in the last century, less so in recent years.
最近几十年 美国才改变这种做法
The United States has moved away from that habit over the last few decades.
乐此不疲的俄罗斯又“重操旧业”了 特别是以信息战的形式
Russia has returned to it with great gusto, particularly in the form of information warfare—what
我们所知道的假新闻仅仅是冰山一角
we’ve come to know as fake news—and we’re just seeing the very, very beginning tip of the iceberg there.
我们已经在电脑中看到 人工智能用——
We are already seeing artificial intelligence in computer programs that are able to take—based
基于世界上任何领导人的只言片语和若干图片
on a small bank of words and a few images—any world leader and have them convincingly say
(就能使他们)在视频中逼真地说出 任何 这个程序想要他们说的话
on video whatever the program would like them to say.
这些病毒程序还处在初级阶段 “眼见为实”的说法
These bots are just in their infancy, and the notion of “to see is to believe” and
以及剪辑的视频被用作事实的证据 很不幸 都是过去那个时代的产物
video clips being compelling evidence of truth, is something that is unfortunately of a bygone era.
俄罗斯在那项技术上极为先进
And Russia is extremely advanced in that technology.
这是早先我认为的 与其期待世界任何政权特别是俄罗斯
So this is early days and I think rather than expect any world power and Russia in particular
放弃这方面的尝试 不如期待我们的领导人在没有监督的情况下
to back off on these kinds of attempts we need to expect our own leaders to have the
也能去做正确的事
integrity to do what’s right even when no one’s watching.
当我为美国政府训练时 我们的手册里写道
When I trained in service for the U.S. government the inside of our manual said, “Integrity
“正直就是在无人监督时做正确的事”
is doing what’s right when nobody is watching.”
屈服于政权交替所带来的影响力 是代议民主与生俱来的诱惑
And the temptation to yield to influence in exchange for power is built into representative democracy.
值得一提的是 这不仅是像俄罗斯和莫斯科这样的外国势力
And, by the way, it’s not just foreign powers like Russia and Moscow.
这是我们国家的特殊利益 只有在遭到破坏时 才会产生影响
It’s our own special interests in this country which can yield influence that can be just as damaging.
因此 这对我们来说 是个无法回避的问题
And so this is not an issue that’s going to go away for us.
我不觉得 未来几年里 我们能加强网络安全
I don’t think we’re going to be able to beef up our cybersecurity over the next couple
并摆脱这种威胁
of years and bid this threat farewell.
因此 虽然我们尽己所能继续每天对此保持警惕
And so while we will continue to be vigilant against it in every way that we can, I think
但是 若在无人监督时 它突破阻碍表现出来的话
we also need to rely on ourselves and our leadership to fend off that temptation if
我认为还需要依靠我们自己和领导层去拒绝诱惑
it does make it through the barricades and present itself in the room when nobody’s watching.

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代议民主制的缺陷:政府是如何影响国外选举的

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