未登录,请登录后再发表信息
最新评论 (0)
播放视频

担忧核能其实是破坏环境

How fear of nuclear power is hurting the environment | Michael Shellenberger

你听说了吗
Have you heard the news?
我們正处于洁净能源革命之中
We’re in a clean energy revolution.
在我居住的加州柏克萊
And where I live in Berkeley, California,
我几乎每一天都能看到 新铺上太陽能板的屋顶
it seems like every day I see a new roof with new solar panels going up,
在路上飞驰的电动车
electric car in the driveway.
德國有時有一半能源是來自太阳能
Germany sometimes gets half its power from solar,
印度現正筹备建設的太陽能发电裝置数量
and India is now committed to building 10 times more solar
比加州在2022年將建成的
than we have in California,
還要多10倍
by the year 2022.
甚至核能似乎都卷土重來了
Even nuclear seems to be making a comeback.
比尔·盖茨在中國与
Bill Gates is in China working with engineers,
40家公司的工程师一起合作
there’s 40 different companies that are working together
试图爭先建造第一個依靠核废料運行的反应堆
to try to race to build the first reactor that runs on waste,
它的核心不會熔化
that can’t melt down
价格比煤更便宜
and is cheaper than coal.
你可能會想問:
And so you might start to ask:
那麼全球暖化問題
Is this whole global warming problem
真的比任何人想像中都要容易解決嗎?
going to be a lot easier to solve than anybody imagined?
這是我們想知道的問題
That was the question we wanted to know,
所以我和同事決定深入研究数据
so my colleagues and I decided to take a deep dive into the data.
我們對洁净能源革命的故事
We were a little skeptical of some parts
其中有某些地方有點疑問
of the clean energy revolution story,
但是研究的結果卻让我們感到惊讶
but what we found really surprised us.
第一件事就是 潔淨能源的使用一直在增加
The first thing is that clean energy has been increasing.
這是洁净能源過去的20年发电量
This is electricity from clean energy sources over the last 20 years.
但是 當你看全球電力的百分比
But when you look at the percentage of global electricity
來自洁净能源的部分
from clean energy sources,
实际上一直在下降 从36%到31%
it’s actually been in decline from 36 percent to 31 percent.
如果你关注气候变化
And if you care about climate change,
你会觉得我們需要逆轉這個趋势
you’ve got to go in the opposite direction
我們需要尽快把清潔能源所佔的
to 100 percent of our electricity from clean energy sources,
發電比例提升到100%
as quickly as possible.
現在 你可能會問
Now, you might wonder,
“嘿!全球電力的5%能有多少嘛?“
“Come on, how much could five percentage points of global electricity be?”
事实上 这一点都不少
Well, it turns out to be quite a bit.
而是相当于60座加州
It’s the equivalent of 60 nuclear plants
代阿布洛峽谷核電廠规模的發電量
the size of Diablo Canyon, California’s last nuclear plant,
或900座加州托帕石太陽能電廠的發電量
or 900 solar farms the size of Topaz,
這可是世界上最大的太陽能電廠
which is one of the biggest solar farms in the world,
當然也是加州最大的
and certainly our biggest in California.
图中大部分的区域显示
A big part of this is simply that fossil fuels are increasing
化石燃料使用频率增加得比洁净能源還快
faster than clean energy.
這是可以理解的
And that’s understandable.
還有很多落后国家
There’s just a lot of poor countries
仍在使用木材 粪便和木炭
that are still using wood and dung and charcoal
作為主要的能源要來源
as their main source of energy,
他們需要現代燃料
and they need modern fuels.
但還有別的事情
But there’s something else going on,
那就是有一項洁净能源的数据
which is that one of those clean energy sources in particular
其绝对值 其實一直在下降
has actually been on the decline in absolute terms,
不只是相對數值
not just relatively.
這就是核能
And that’s nuclear.
你可以看到核電發電量 在過去的10年
You can see its generation has declined seven percent
下降了百分之七
over the last 10 years.
現在 太陽能和風能已經有了巨大的進步
Now, solar and wind have been making huge strides,
所以你聽到了很多演講 說核能其實並不重要
so you hear a lot of talk about how it doesn’t really matter,
因為太陽能和風能足以弥补差距
because solar and wind is going to make up the difference.
但数据显示並非如此
But the data says something different.
當你把所有太陽和風能相加
When you combine all the electricity from solar and wind,
你看它實際上只能勉強弥补核能下降值的一半
you see it actually barely makes up half of the decline from nuclear.
让我們來仔细观察美國的数据
Let’s take a closer look in the United States.
在過去的几年: 2013–2014年
Over the last couple of years — really 2013, 2014 —
我們提早除役了四座核電廠
we prematurely retired four nuclear power plants.
几乎完全以化石燃料發電取代
They were almost entirely replaced with fossil fuels,
等同我們減少产生
and so the consequence was that we wiped out
与太陽能發電量相同的電能
almost as much clean energy electricity that we get from solar.
這不是特例
And it’s not unique to us.
人們认为加州是洁净能源和对抗气候变化的先驱者
People think of California as a clean energy and climate leader,
但是 當我們看着数据
but when we looked at the data,
我們發現的是:事实上
what we found is that, in fact,
在2000和2015年之間
California reduced emissions more slowly than the national average,
加州減少碳排放量速度低於全國平均水準
between 2000 and 2015.
至於德國呢
What about Germany?
他們有很多洁净能源
They’re doing a lot of clean energy.
再看一下数据
But when you look at the data,
德國的排放量居然自2009年以來一直往上走
German emissions have actually been going up since 2009,
真的沒有任何人会告訴你
and there’s really not anybody who’s going to tell you
他們要怎麼達成2020年的減碳承諾
that they’re going to meet their climate commitments in 2020.
究其原因不难理解
The reason isn’t hard to understand.
太陽能和風能可提供電能時間約佔一天中10%到20%
Solar and wind provide power about 10 to 20 percent of the time,
这意味着 当太阳不再照耀
which means that when the sun’s not shining,
风不再刮
the wind’s not blowing,
而医院
you still need power for your hospitals,
家 城市 工厂都需要用电
your homes, your cities, your factories.
尽管电池近年来取得了喜人的进步
And while batteries have made some really cool improvements lately,
事实上 电池的效率
the truth is, they’re just never going to be as efficient
永远比不上电网
as the electrical grid.
每回你將電能用電池儲存後 再次將它拿出來
Every time you put electricity into a battery and take it out,
你都会损失20%-40%的电量
you lose about 20 to 40 percent of the power.
這就是為什麼在加州
That’s why when, in California,
我們试图將太陽能与电网相連
we try to deal with all the solar we’ve brought online —
我們現在約10%電力取自太陽能發電
we now get about 10 percent of electricity from solar —
當太陽下山 人們下班回家
when the sun goes down, and people come home from work
打開他們的空調 电视
and turn on their air conditioners and their TV sets,
及屋裡其他電器时
and every other appliance in the house,
我們需要大量的天然氣储备電力
we need a lot of natural gas backup.
因此 我們一直將
So what we’ve been doing
大量天然氣儲存於一座山中
is stuffing a lot of natural gas into the side of a mountain.
开始也确实是个好方法
And that worked pretty well for a while,
但去年年底发生了天然气泄露
but then late last year, it sprung a leak.
這是加州阿利索峽谷
This is Aliso Canyon.
這麼多的甲烷(天然氣)外洩
So much methane gas was released,
这相当于五十万輛汽車在道路行駛
it was the equivalent of putting half a million cars on the road.
它基本上已超出我們全年的碳排放量承諾
It basically blew through all of our climate commitments for the year.
那麼 看看印度的情形
Well, what about India?
有時你要得到正確的数据 還不得不親自跑一趟
Sometimes you have to go places to really get the right data,
因此 我們在幾個月前到访印度
so we traveled to India a few months ago.
我們會見了所有的高級官員 — 管太陽能、核能及其他種種 …..
We met with all the top officials — solar, nuclear, the rest —
他們告訴我們:
and what they told us is,
“我們实际上還有比德國和加州
“We’re actually having more serious problems
更严重的問题
than both Germany and California.
我們沒有后援 沒有足量的天然氣
We don’t have backup; we don’t have all the natural gas.
而這只是开端
And that’s just the start of it.
假設我們预计在2022年达到100萬千瓦
Say we want to get to 100 gigawatts by 2022.
但去年我們只建了5万千瓦
But last year we did just five,
而在這之前一年 我們建了5萬千瓦
and the year before that, we did five.”
所以 让我們仔细考量下核能
So, let’s just take a closer look at nuclear.
联合国政府間气候变化專門委員會
The United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
一直關注所有不同燃料的排碳量
has looked at the carbon content of all these different fuels,
核能真的很低 – 实际上甚至低於太陽能
and nuclear comes out really low — it’s actually lower even than solar.
而且明顯能提供了大量的能量 –
And nuclear obviously provides a lot of power —
每天24小時 每週七天无间断
24 hours a day, seven days a week.
一座核電廠一年中有92%的時間可以提供電力
During a year, a single plant can provide power 92 percent of the time.
有趣的是 當你看那些
What’s interesting is that when you look at countries
已經發展出各式洁净能源的國家
that have deployed different kinds of clean energies,
只有幾個在处理环境危机上
there’s only a few that have done so
采取与治理環境一致的步伐
at a pace consistent with dealing with the climate crisis.
因此 核能似乎是相當不錯的选择
So nuclear seems like a pretty good option,
但是核能有個大問題
but there’s this big problem with it,
我敢肯定你們都知道的
which all of you, I’m sure, are aware of,
就是人們真的不喜歡它
which is that people really don’t like it.
大約一年半前有一項研究 针对世界各地的人們
There was a study, a survey done of people around the world,
不只是在美國或歐洲
not just in the United States or Europe,
所進行的調查
about a year and a half ago.
他們發現
And what they found
核能是最不受歡迎的能源形式
is that nuclear is actually one of the least popular forms of energy.
甚至石油都比核能更受歡迎
Even oil is more popular than nuclear.
雖然核能替代了煤 但是
And while nuclear kind of edges out coal, the thing is,
人並不像恐惧核能那樣害怕煤
people don’t really fear coal in the same way they fear nuclear,
這深深扎根在我們的潜意识中
which really operates on our unconscious.
那麼 是什麼讓我們恐惧
So what is it that we fear?
有三件確定的事:
There’s really three things.
核電廠本身的安全
There’s the safety of the plants themselves —
害怕核心熔化 造成伤害
the fears that they’re going to melt down and cause damage;
其次是核電廠的核废料
there’s the waste from them;
最後与核武器的有关
and there’s the association with weapons.
我認為 這是可以理解的
And I think, understandably,
工程師們專注於這些疑虑 並在技術上加以突破
engineers look at those concerns and look for technological fixes.
這就是為什麼比尔·盖茨在中國開發先進的反應器
That’s why Bill Gates is in China developing advanced reactors.
這就是為什麼40個企业参与在其中
That’s why 40 different entrepreneurs are working on this problem.
而我自己 一直對此非常兴奋
And I, myself, have been very excited about it.
我們完成了一份報告:“如何使核能變便宜”
We did a report: “How to Make Nuclear Cheap.”
特別是钍反應器使很多事變得可行
In particular, the thorium reactor shows a lot of promise.
所以當氣候科學家詹姆斯·漢森
So when the climate scientist, James Hansen,
問我是否愿意到与他到中國去
asked if I wanted to go to China with him
並瞧瞧中國的先進核能计划
and look at the Chinese advanced nuclear program,
我高兴得跳起来了
I jumped at the chance.
我們與MIT和加州大學柏克萊分校的工程師到那里
We were there with MIT and UC Berkeley engineers.
我腦中相信
And I had in my mind
中國將能夠將核能做起來
that the Chinese would be able to do with nuclear
就像他們已經完成的其他許多事情一样
what they did with so many other things —
可以在生產線上制出小型核反应器
start to crank out small nuclear reactors on assembly lines,
把它們像iPhone或MacBook那样運到世界各地
ship them up like iPhones or MacBooks and send them around the world.
我会在柏克萊的家中也能弄一個
I would get one at home in Berkeley.
但我發現有些不同
But what I found was somewhat different.
這些介紹都非常令人興奮 也有所期待
The presentations were all very exciting and very promising;
他們擁有多個反應器正在研究
they have multiple reactors that they’re working on.
介紹钍反应器时 我們一幫人都很興奮
The time came for the thorium reactor, and a bunch of us were excited.
他們介紹完了 談到計畫時程時
They went through the whole presentation, they got to the timeline,
他們說:
and they said,
我們不得不將钍熔盐反应器
“We’re going to have a thorium molten salt reactor
上市的時間訂于
ready for sale to the world
2040年
by 2040.”
我當時就懵逼了
And I was like, “What?”
(笑聲)
(Laughter)
我看了看我的同事 然後我就
I looked at my colleagues and I was like,
不好意思
“Excuse me —
你們的动作可以稍微快点吗
can you guys speed that up a little bit?
因為我們現在有一點气候危机
Because we’re in a little bit of a climate crisis right now.
另外 你們的城市污染真的好严重
And your cities are really polluted, by the way.”
他們说
And they responded back, they were like,
我不知道你聽說的釷計劃是怎样的
“I’m not sure what you’ve heard about our thorium program,
但我們連三分之一的預算都沒有
but we don’t have a third of our budget,
你們能源部好像也不是很主動
and your department of energy hasn’t been particularly forthcoming
公开你們測試的反应器数据
with all that data you guys have on testing reactors.”
我說 嗯 我有一個想法
And I said, “Well, I’ve got an idea.
你知道 我们没法拿10年时间去证明这个反应器(可行)
You know how you’ve got 10 years where you’re demonstrating that reactor?
我们就直接跳过这个阶段
Let’s just skip that part,
直接商業化
and let’s just go right to commercializing it.
這將節省時間和金钱
That will save money and time.”
工程師看著我 說
And the engineer just looked at me and said,
让我問你一個問題
“Let me ask you a question:
你會買一輛從來沒有展示過的汽車么
Would you buy a car that had never been demonstrated before?”
那麼 其他的反應器呢?
So what about the other reactors?
有反應器即将上市了 而現在他們已經開始出售了
There’s a reactor that’s coming online now, they’re starting to sell it.
這是一個高溫气体反應器
It’s a high-temperature gas reactor.
它不會熔毀
It can’t melt down.
但它確實又大又笨重 给人安全感
But it’s really big and bulky, that’s part of the safety,
沒有人認為會有
and nobody thinks it’s going to ever get cheaper
比现有更便宜的反應器
than the reactors that we have.
使用核廢料作為燃料 真的是很酷的想法 但事實是:
The ones that use waste as fuel are really cool ideas, but the truth is,
我們實際上並不知道該怎麼做
we don’t actually know how to do that yet.
你要冒著實際上製造 更多的核廢料的風險
There’s some risk that you’ll actually make more waste,
大多數人認為如果你把
and most people think that if you’re including
處理廢料的部分加上去
that waste part of the process,
整個機器將更加而昂貴不少
it’s just going to make the whole machine a lot more expensive,
它只是增加另一個复杂的步驟
it’s just adding another complicated step.
事實是
The truth is,
有多少真正的問題是我們要處理的
there’s real questions about how much of that we’re going to do.
我的意思是 我們去了印度並要求看核能計劃
I mean, we went to India and asked about the nuclear program.
政府表示 巴黎的氣候談判之前
The government said before the Paris climate talks
他們打算做些什麼 例如蓋30座新的核電廠
that they were going to do something like 30 new nuclear plants.
但是 當我們到了那裡並採訪相關人士
But when we got there and interviewed people
甚至看了內部文件
and even looked at the internal documents,
他們現在說大約要盖5座
they’re now saying they’re going to do about five.
而在世界上大多數國家 尤其是富有的国家
And in most of the world, especially the rich world,
他們都不会谈论立新的核反應器
they’re not talking about building new reactors.
我們實際上是在談論的是
We’re actually talking about taking reactors down
在使用期限前將其除役
before their lifetimes are over.
德國实际上向他的邻居施压让他们這樣做
Germany’s actually pressuring its neighbors to do that.
我提到美國
I mentioned the United States —
在接下來的15年裡 我們可能會關掉一半的反應器
we could lose half of our reactors over the next 15 years,
這將使碳排放增加40%
which would wipe out 40 percent of the emissions reductions
前提是得全由洁净能源取代才行
we’re supposed to get under the Clean Power Plan.
當然 在日本 他們將所有的核電廠下線
Of course, in Japan, they took all their nuclear plants offline,
用煤 天然氣及石油取而代之
replaced them with coal, natural gas, oil burning,
而他們只預期將約三分之一到三分之二的反應器再上線
and they’re only expected to bring online about a third to two-thirds.
所以 當我們核算一下數字
So when we went through the numbers,
給它們算了算
and just added that up —
接下來的15年裡
how much nuclear do we see China and India bringing online
中國和印度將有多少核電廠上線
over the next 15 years,
有多少是有被下線的風險
how much do we see at risk of being taken offline —
這是最令人吃惊的發現
this was the most startling finding.
我們發現 这样做 世界其實是冒着
What we found is that the world is actually at risk
损失4倍於過去10年減少的潔淨能源的风险
of losing four times more clean energy than we lost over the last 10 years.
換句話說:我們不是处于洁净能源革命
In other words: we’re not in a clean energy revolution;
而是在洁净能源危机当中
we’re in a clean energy crisis.
所以工程師將寻求技術性修正
So it’s understandable that engineers would look for a technical fix
人們對核能的疑慮是可以理解的
to the fears that people have of nuclear.
但是 當你考慮 這些都是巨大的挑戰
But when you consider that these are big challenges to do,
他們要花費很長的時間來解決
that they’re going to take a long time to solve,
還有這另一個問題
there’s this other issue, which is:
那些技術性修正 真的能解決人們的恐慌
Are those technical fixes really going to solve people’s fears?
使我們感到安全嗎
Let’s take safety.
要知道 尽管人們這樣想
You know, despite what people think,
還是很難弄清楚如何 才能使核電更加安全
it’s hard to figure out how to make nuclear power much safer.
我的意思是 每本探討這個問題的医学期刊
I mean, every medical journal that looks at it —
這是英國医学期刊“柳叶刀”最新的研究
this is the most recent study from the British journal, “Lancet,”
世上最受尊敬的期刊之一
one of the most respected journals in the world —
核能是最安全可靠的能源
nuclear is the safest way to make reliable power.
發生事故時 每個人都嚇壞了
Everybody’s scared of the accidents.
所以 你去看看事故的数据
So you go look at the accident data —
福岛 切尔诺贝利
Fukushima, Chernobyl —
世界卫生组织發現同樣的事情
the World Health Organization finds the same thing:
絕大多數的危害是人們恐慌造成的
the vast majority of harm is caused by people panicking,
他們恐慌 因為他們害怕
and they’re panicking because they’re afraid.
換一種說法
In other words,
造成損害的不是實際的機器
the harm that’s caused isn’t actually caused by the machines
或辐射
or the radiation.
是恐慌
It’s caused by our fears.
那核废料呢
And what about the waste?
每個人都担心核废料
Everyone worries about the waste.
好了 关于核废料 有趣的是
Well, the interesting thing about the waste
它有多麼小
is how little of it there is.
這是從一個核電廠運出來的废料
This is just from one plant.
如果你把美国产生的所有的核廢料
If you take all the nuclear waste we’ve ever made in the United States,
把它放在足球場上堆積起來
put it on a football field, stacked it up,
它只會達到20英尺 (6.1m) 高
it would only reach 20 feet high.
人們說這會使人中毒或造成一些事情
And people say it’s poisoning people or doing something —
它不會 它只是放在那裡 被监视着
it’s not, it’s just sitting there, it’s just being monitored.
就只是這樣而已
There’s not very much of it.
相較之下 能源生產中不受控制的废料
By contrast, the waste that we don’t control from energy production —
我們稱之為“污染” 一年殺死七百萬人
we call it “pollution,” and it kills seven million people a year,
並造成严重的全球暖化
and it’s threatening very serious levels of global warming.
而事實是 即使我們能善用核废料作為燃料
And the truth is that even if we get good at using that waste as fuel,
總是有一些核燃料遺留下來
there’s always going to be some fuel left over.
這意味著 总有人認為這是一個大問題
That means there’s always going to be people that think it’s a big problem
因为各种原因 我们可能会觉得
for reasons that maybe don’t have as much to do with the actual waste
核废料没有什么可用之处
as we think.
那核武器呢
Well, what about the weapons?
可能最让人意外的大概是
Maybe the most surprising thing is that we can’t find any examples
没有任何拥有核能的国家会
of countries that have nuclear power
一时兴起地拿来做核武器
and then, “Oh!” decide to go get a weapon.
恰恰相反
In fact, it works the opposite.
我们所知道的唯一一个
What we find is the only way we know
可以摆脱大数量的核弹的方法
how to get rid large numbers of nuclear weapons
就是把钚放在弹头里
is by using the plutonium in the warheads
把它作为核电厂的燃料
as fuel in our nuclear power plants.
如果你想创造一个无核的世界
And so, if you are wanting to get the world rid of nuclear weapons,
那核能发电势在必行
then we’re going to need a lot more nuclear power.
(掌声)
(Applause)
当我离开中国时
As I was leaving China,
有位与比尔盖茨同行的工程师把我拉到一边
the engineer that brought Bill Gates there kind of pulled me aside,
对我说 你知道吗 麦克 我很欣赏你
and he said, “You know, Michael, I appreciate your interest
在各种核能应用技术的提议
in all the different nuclear supply technologies,
但最基本的问题是
but there’s this more basic issue,
全球需求并没有那么大
which is that there’s just not enough global demand.
我是说 我们可以在流水线上完成这些机器
I mean, we can crank out these machines on assembly lines,
我们也知道怎么让它更便宜
we do know how to make things cheap,
但问题是没有那么多人会买啊
but there’s just not enough people that want them.”
所以 我们就着重解决太阳能 风能的效率和储存问题吧
And so, let’s do solar and wind and efficiency and conservation.
我们加快推进核能项目吧
Let’s accelerate the advanced nuclear programs.
我觉得应该放现有经费的三倍去研发
I think we should triple the amount of money we’re spending on it.
但我觉得最重要的
But I just think the most important thing,
对于应对气候危机这件事
if we’re going to overcome the climate crisis,
就是时刻记住 清洁能源危机的起源
is to keep in mind that the cause of the clean energy crisis
不是来自于我们的机器
isn’t from within our machines,
而是来源于我们自己
it’s from within ourselves.
谢谢大家
Thank you very much.
(掌声)
(Applause)

发表评论

译制信息
视频概述

核能并没有大家想象的可怕,当风和太阳的时候,除了化学燃料 我们还能用什么低碳的方式去产生供我们使用的能源。不要因为恐惧 而把自己推向深渊

听录译者

收集自网络

翻译译者

小山米

审核员

赖皮

视频来源

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LZXUR4z2P9w

相关推荐